Media forecast 2018 - Stuff.co.nz
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media forecast 2018
The way people consume their media is constantly changing. We’ve been tracking these habits through the annual Stuff media channel study and the results are pretty interesting. We’ve used the study for a few years to judge what we expect to happen. Whilst we aren’t 100% accurate, we’re not usually too far away. It’s our view on the world coupled with our view on what we can expect. Nothing too grandiose, just simple facts along with our view. We hope you find it useful for planning what to expect in 2018.
Drivers of Change - There is immediate
Ultra Fast Broadband potential among the
fifth who have UFB
available but haven’t yet
had it installed.
Do you have UFB?
Its rollout and uptake
opens NZ up to new
disruptive behaviour,
Yes
12%
No, but I know
especially in our most
23%
it is available in
my area valuable urban areas
No, it is not yet
available in my
‘Internet of things’
23% 42% area
device growth will be
No, I am not sure
if it is available in enabled by this
my area
increased bandwidth
42%
Huge growth in UFB, available via fibre. This
up by around a fifth includes voice assistants.
21% 25% 25%
since 2015.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001
Q: Do you have Fibre / Ultra Fast Broadband (i.e. high speed fibre optic internet access) at your home?
*Source: Nielsen CMI year ending Q2’14, Q2’15, Q2’16, Q2’17
Drivers of Change - Fibre & VDSL Household connections speeds increasing. Fibre penetration and increased connections will be the major distruptive force in 2018 *Source: http://thedownload.co.nz/benchmarks/, Chorus Network Connections and Speed, Dec 17.
Video/Movie/TV Streaming -
Usage & Shifts
• We expect Vodafone TV and any new entrants to
come in at around 7-8% for a good result
comparable to previous years 2018.
• Netflix rules and lightbox will also grow, with
Netflix to be on par with You Tube in 2018.
• TV networks will be static or see declines.
65%
62% 59%
48%
42% 40%
29% 27%
20% 22%
16%
12%
8% 7% 7% 8% 8%
1% 1% 1% 1%
You Tube Netflix TVNZ On TV3 On Lightbox Neon HULU+ None of
Demand Demand these
2015 2016 2017
Base: 2017 National Sample 2015 N=2,011, 2016 N=1,010, 2017 N=1,001
2015/2017: Which, if any, of the following video/movie/TV streaming services do you currently use?
2016 Q. Which of the following have you used in the last week?
Connected Devices -
Usage & Shifts
OTT TV devices now
greater than smart TV.
VOD & SVOD services
Over half of NZ Homes have
now bigger than PVR
TV connected devices 73%
and we expect further
65%
61%
55%
61% 61%
declines in PVR use.
49%
47%
44% 41%
Huge growth in Netflix
38% 38%
36%
32%
34%
31%
year-on-year with
27%
23% Lightbox also showing
16% 18% 16%
10% growth. On Demand TV
7% 7%
has remained fairly
PVR Game Console OTT/Multimedia
devices
Smart TV / 3D TV Smartphone Tablet SVOD VOD static since 2015
YE Q4 2015 YE Q2 2016 YE Q2 2017
Source: Nielsen Consumer & Media Insights Q1-Q42015 Dec-fused, Q315–Q216 Aug fused, Q316-Q217
Online Social Platform –
Usage & Shifts
• Facebook has strong reach, but we’re seeing first
Using Facebook
MORE often
20%
*Net signs of Facebook fatigue with users considering
Change reducing or withdrawing. Those using Facebook ‘less’
Using Facebook
-3% more likely to be younger i.e. 28% of under 35’s
19%
LESS often
using less often (but nett change is similar at -3%)
STOPPED using
Facebook completely 4% • Trivial and time-consuming nature of Facebook is
what’s driving decrease in usage, in addition to the
REDUCED the number
10%
lack of control over content
of Facebook friends I have
• Of those leaving, around half have not replaced
Considered LEAVING
12%
Facebook with anything. Those who have replaced
Faceboook
Facebook are mainly using Instagram, Twitter, Email,
Haven’t changed the
face-to-face or phone conversation
use of my Facebook 35%
• This fatigue, coupled with increased competition
NA- Haven’t used Facebook
between social platforms means we expect social
14%
in the last 12 months
media fragmentation to accelerate in 2018
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001, Fairfax Sample N=1,114
Q: Thinking about Facebook, which of the following apply to you in relation to your use of Facebook in the last 12 months?
Please select all that apply.
*Net change = Less often + stopped – more often
Media Consumption Trends -
Reading
Nett Gain / Loss
Less often More often 2017 2016
New Zealand online
7% 40% +33% +29%
news sites
Social media sites 11% 34% +23% NA
Kiwis connection to
Online/digital
newsfeeds/news alerts
8% 29% +21% NA news likely to remain
International online
8% 23% +15% +13%
strong over 2018
news sites
Local community
19% 20% +1% -7%
newspapers
Neighbourly 14% 15% +1% NA
Print declines
Daily newspapers 30% 15% -15% -22%
likely to reduce
Food magazines 22% 10% -12% -21% making it 3 years in a
Lifestyle magazines 25% 8% -17% -30%
row if forecast holds.
Magazine forecasts
Sunday magazines 29% 8% -21% -34%
are challenging.
Gardening magazines 19% 6% -21% NA
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001, 2016 N=1,010
Q: Which of the below are you reading MORE / LESS than you were 6 months ago?
Media Consumption Trends -
Viewing & Listening
• Over last 12 months, only small changes
Watched/listened/used Less More Nett
in the past 12 months often often Change in use of traditional media. Growth in
video media channel solely due to
streaming services.
TV 92% 21% 17% -4%
• Streaming services have overtaken SKY in
terms of media consumption.
Radio 88% 26% 12% -14%
• Online streaming will continue to grow in
2018 with traditional broadcasters to
Video/movie/TV
experience declines in the same order of
63% 17% 45% +28%
streaming services magnitude as 2017. We expect that
without the major sporting events of the
previous year, 2018 will be a tough year
Sky TV 54% 24% 17% -7%
for traditional TV. Consumers will
continue to take more control and we’ll
Music Streaming
therefore see ongoing growth in
51% 19% 35% +16%
Services
streaming services.
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001
Have watched/listened/used in past 12 months.
Q: Compared to 12 months ago are you watching/listening/using the following MORE or LESS often, or about the SAME?
Media Consumption -
Streaming Services
Video/Movie/TV
streaming services
Music streaming
services
Huge growth overall in
use of music streaming
YouTube 59% Spotify 49%
services with just 15%
Netflix 48% YouTube
iHeart radio 9%
49%
YouTube non-users this year.
TVNZ On Demand 40% most used streaming
Apple Music 8%
TV3 On Demand 27%
iTunes Radio / iCloud 8%
service followed by Netflix Spotify and YouTube
Lightbox 20% Pandora 7% the most popular music
Sky On Demand 17% Google Play Music 7%
streaming services.
SoundCloud 6%
Apple TV 8%
TuneIn Radio 3%
Neon 7%
Rova 3%
Tivo 2% Grooveshark 2%
HULU+ 1% Mix Cloud 1%
Beats 1%
Quickflix 1%
Sony Music 1%
Igloo 1%
Music Unlimited 1%
Other 1%
RDIO 0%
None of these 8% Other 2%
None of these 14%
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001
Q: Which, if any, of the following video/movie/TV streaming services do you currently use?
Q: Which, if any, of the following music streaming services do you currently use?Takeaway - Drivers of Change In our view the major disruptive media force will be driven by increased bandwidths and speeds being consumed by NZ households. The fastest growing segment of fibre connections is at 100MB+ and this opens up more opportunities across 2018. From more streaming to households experimenting with new Internet enabled devices including voice assistants
Takeaway - Traditional Media News plays an important role in online content consumption and we expect this to stay strong and keep growing in 2018 ~25% Traditional print will see further declines, however these should slow for the 3rd consecutive year - newspapers
Takeaway - Streaming Services Streaming services will continue to grow across 2018, with continued significant growth of music streaming through Spotify and YouTube. Netflix growth will continue, solidifying its leadership position in video streaming services. Its penetration will increase to mid 50% range
Takeaway - Social Media Expect social media to remain strong in terms of reach, with Facebook continuing to lead But expect it to fragment further driven by those aged
About This Study…
This report shares This wave provides
It is designed to baseline measures
the first wave of
provide a holistic and where
data from the
view of market appropriate compares
annual Stuff media
performance to the previous brand
channel study
health tracker
Majority of study conducted Sample: N=2,115
online between Q3/Q4 2017 • N=1,001 National sample
by The Thinking Studio • N=1,114 Study Conducted by The Thinking Studio and
sample sourced by Yabble
• Supplemented by other data from Nielsen CMI, and Chorus
• Media forecast for 2018 developed by the Stuff Business
Marketing & Insights Team
Like to chat about how these findings might impact your business or
marketing in 2018? Email us at businessmarketing@stuff.co.nzYou can also read
