Media forecast 2018 - Stuff.co.nz
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media forecast 2018
The way people consume their media is constantly changing. We’ve been tracking these habits through the annual Stuff* media channel study and the results are pretty interesting. We’ve used the study for a few years to judge what we expect to happen. While we aren’t 100% accurate, we’re usually not too far away. It’s our view on the world coupled with our view on what we can expect. Nothing too grandiose, just simple facts along with our view. We hope you find it useful for planning what to expect in 2018. * Previously the Fairfax Media channel study on 1st Feb 2018, Fairfax Media rebranded to Stuff
Drivers of Change - Fibre acts as an enabler for disruption Household connections speeds and bandwidth are increasing. Fibre penetration and increased connections will be the major distruptive force in 2018 *Source: http://thedownload.co.nz/benchmarks/, Chorus Network Connections and Speed, Dec 17. **Stuff are shareholders in Stuff Fibre. A Fibre only ISP
Connected Devices -
Usage & Shifts
VOD & SVOD services
now bigger than PVR
Over half of NZ Homes have TV connected devices
and we expect further
declines in PVR use.
73%
65%
Increases in video
61% 61% 61%
55% consumption enabled
49%
47%
44% 41%
by increased fibre
38% 38%
36%
32%
34%
31%
connections
27%
23%
16% 18% 16%
10%
7% 7%
Personal video Game Console Over the top/ Smart TV / 3D TV Smartphone Tablet Streaming video on Video on
recorder Multimedia devices demand (SVOD) demand (VOD)
(OTT)
YE Q4 2015 YE Q2 2016 YE Q2 2017
Source: Nielsen Consumer & Media Insights Q1-Q42015 Dec-fused, Q315–Q216 Aug fused, Q316-Q217
Video/Movie/TV Streaming -
Usage & Shifts
• Netflix rules and Lightbox will also grow, with
Netflix to be on par with YouTube in 2018
• Any new entrants can expect growth with
potentially 7-10% usage in year one achievable
65%
62% 59%
48%
42% 40%
29% 27%
20% 22%
16%
12%
8% 7% 7% 8% 8%
1% 1% 1% 1%
YouTube Netflix TVNZ On TV3 On Lightbox Neon HULU+ None of
Demand Demand these
2015 2016 2017
Base: 2017 National Sample 2015 N=2,011, 2016 N=1,010, 2017 N=1,001
2015/2017: Which, if any, of the following video/movie/TV streaming services do you currently use?
2016 Q. Which of the following have you used in the last week?
Stuff Pix is a streaming movie service due to launch early 2018 and Stuff Fibre are shareholders
Online Social Platform –
Usage & Shifts
• This is the first time that we have seen weakening in
Using facebook
MORE often
20%
*Net sentiment towards facebook
Change
Using facebook
-3% • While facebook has strong reach, those using
19%
LESS often facebook ‘less’ likely to be younger i.e. 28% of under
35s using less often (but net change is similar at -3%)
STOPPED using
facebook completely 4%
• Trivial and time-consuming nature of facebook is
what’s driving decrease in usage, in addition to the
REDUCED the number
of facebook friends I have 10% lack of control over content
• Of those leaving, around half have not replaced
Considered LEAVING
faceboook 12%
facebook with anything
Haven’t changed the
• Those who have replaced facebook are mainly using
35%
use of my facebook Instagram, Twitter, email, face-to-face or phone
conversations
NA- Haven’t used facebook
14%
in the last 12 months
• This fatigue, coupled with increased competition
between social platforms means we expect social
media fragmentation to accelerate in 2018
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001, Fairfax Sample N=1,114
Q: Thinking about Facebook, which of the following apply to you in relation to your use of Facebook in the last 12 months?
Please select all that apply.
*Net change = Less often + stopped – more often
Media Consumption Trends -
Reading
Net Gain / Loss
Less often More often 2017 2016
New Zealand online
7% 40% +33% +29%
news sites
Social media sites 11% 34% +23% NA
Kiwis connection to
Online/digital
newsfeeds/news alerts
8% 29% +21% NA news likely to remain
International online
8% 23% +15% +13%
strong over 2018.
news sites
Local community
19% 20% +1% -7%
newspapers
Neighbourly 14% 15% +1% NA
Daily newspapers 30% 15% -15% -22%
Print declines
Food magazines 22% 10% -12% -21% likely to reduce
making it three years
Lifestyle magazines 25% 8% -17% -30%
in a row if forecast
Sunday magazines 29% 8% -21% -34%
holds.
Gardening magazines 19% 6% -21% NA
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001, 2016 N=1,010
Q: Which of the below are you reading MORE / LESS than you were 6 months ago?
Media Consumption Trends -
Viewing & Listening
• Over last 12 months, only small changes
Watched/listened/used Less More Net
in the past 12 months often often Change in use of traditional media. Growth in
video media channel solely due to
streaming services
TV 92% 21% 17% -4%
• Results show streaming services have
overtaken SKY in terms of overall
Radio 88% 26% 12% -14% watching
• Online streaming will continue to grow in
Video/movie/TV
2018
63% 17% 45% +28%
streaming services
• In 2018, we expect traditional
broadcasters to experience declines in
Sky TV 54% 24% 17% -7% the same order of magnitude as 2017
• Consumers will continue to take more
Music Streaming
control and we’ll therefore see ongoing
51% 19% 35% +16%
Services
growth in streaming services
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001
Have watched/listened/used in past 12 months.
Q: Compared to 12 months ago are you watching/listening/using the following MORE or LESS often, or about the SAME?
Media Consumption -
Streaming Services
Video/Movie/TV
streaming services
Music streaming
services
85% of respondents
have used streaming
YouTube 59% Spotify 49%
services.
Netflix 48% YouTube
iHeart radio 9%
49%
YouTube
TVNZ On Demand 40% most used a video streaming
Apple Music 8%
TV3 On Demand 27%
iTunes Radio / iCloud 8%
service followed by Netflix Spotify and YouTube
Lightbox 20% Pandora 7% the most popular music
Sky On Demand 17% Google Play Music 7%
streaming services.
SoundCloud 6%
Apple TV 8%
TuneIn Radio 3%
Neon 7%
Rova 3%
Tivo 2% Grooveshark 2%
HULU+ 1% Mix Cloud 1%
Beats 1%
Quickflix 1%
Sony Music 1%
Igloo 1%
Music Unlimited 1%
Other 1%
RDIO 0%
None of these 8% Other 2%
None of these 14%
Base: 2017 National Sample N=1,001
Q: Which, if any, of the following video/movie/TV streaming services do you currently use?
Q: Which, if any, of the following music streaming services do you currently use?Takeaway - Drivers of Change In our view the major disruptive media force will be driven by increased bandwidths and speeds being consumed by NZ households. The fastest growing segment of fibre connections is at 100MB+ and this opens up more opportunities across 2018. From more streaming to households experimenting with new Internet enabled devices including voice assistants
Takeaway - Traditional Media News plays an important role in online content consumption and we expect this to stay strong and keep growing in 2018 Traditional print will see further declines, however these should slow for the third consecutive year - newspapers
Takeaway - Streaming Services Streaming services will continue to grow across 2018, with continued significant growth of music streaming through Spotify and YouTube. Netflix growth will continue, solidifying its leadership position in video streaming services. Its penetration will increase to mid 50% range
Takeaway - Social Media Expect social media to remain strong in terms of reach, with facebook continuing to lead But expect it to fragment further driven by those aged
About This Study…
This report shares This wave provides
It is designed to baseline measures
the first wave of
provide a holistic and where
data from the
view of market appropriate compares
annual Stuff media
performance to the previous brand
channel study
health tracker
Majority of study conducted Sample: N=2,115
online between Q3/Q4 2017 • N=1,001 National sample
by The Thinking Studio • N=1,114 Study Conducted by The Thinking Studio and
sample sourced by Yabble
• Supplemented by other data from Nielsen CMI, and Chorus
• Media forecast for 2018 developed by the Stuff Business
Marketing & Insights Team
Like to chat about how these findings might impact your business or
marketing in 2018? Email us at businessmarketing@stuff.co.nzYou can also read
