MODERN DIPLOMACY Continuity & Change - Global Health Diplomacy Course
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MODERN DIPLOMACY
Continuity & Change
by Jovan Kurbalija
Global Health Diplomacy
Course
15th June 2009
Continuity & Change
CONTINUITY
Consensus, Compromise, Communication,…
CHANGE
Form, Procedures, Position in Society, Tools,….
DiploFoundation 2009
Continuity & Change
WHEN DOES OUR STORY START?
Probably, when our ancestors discovered that:
“It was better to hear the message than
to eat the messenger.”
DiploFoundation 2009
Continuity & Change
“My God, this is the end
of diplomacy.”
This is reported to have been the
reaction of Lord Palmerston when he
received the first telegraph message
in the 1860’s.
Every major new technological
development has promoted a reaction
similar to Lord Palmerston’s: the
radio, the telephone, the Internet,…
However…
DiploFoundation 2009
Continuity & Change
To date, diplomacy has survived
all these technological
challenges.
As a specific method for
compromise and consensus
diplomacy is here to stay.
The question is only, by whom, at
what level, how and to what ends
it will be performed.
DiploFoundation 2009Main Characteristics of Modern
Diplomacy
Changes in the ENVIRONMENT for
diplomatic activities
Introduction of NEW TOPICS on
diplomatic agendas
Introduction of NEW TOOLS for
diplomatic activities
DiploFoundation 2009Changing ENVIRONMENT for Diplomatic
Activities
Globalisation
Redistribution of Power
Democratisation
Inclusiveness
Internet and Communication Revolution
Disintermediation (“no need for the
middle man”)
Need for “Global Sync”
DiploFoundation 2009GLOBALISATION
Globalisation increased interdependence of
modern world and introduced new challenges
including:
Environmental protection
Internet governance
Migration
Global Health
Development assistance
Economic governance (trade and finance)
States alone cannot resolve global
challenges.
DiploFoundation 2009REDISTRIBUTION OF POWER
SOCIO-ECONOMIC redistribution of power
(new economic and political elites);
GEOGRAPHICAL redistribution of power
(new centers of economic dynamism).
All in all, diplomacy has to function within an altered
socio-political environment.
DiploFoundation 2009DEMOCRATISATION
Growing public participation
New forms of political participation
Issue-driven activism (environment,
human rights)
Addressing “democratic deficit” on
supra-national level
Limits of global democratisation?
How far we can democratise an international
system which is based on the approach “one
country, one vote”?
Is this system “democratic” if China and
Tuvalu2009have the same “voting power” in the
DiploFoundationINCLUSIVENESS
Strengthen Participation of Small and
Developing Societies
In the Interest of all States and
Societies in the World….
Broader Involvement – Increased
Legitimacy
Broader Involvement – Increased
Ownership
DiploFoundation 2009INCLUSIVENESS DiploFoundation 2009
INTERNET AND INFORMATION REVOLUTION
Diplomacy from Internet Café?
Information sharing networks
Participation of civil society and
business
Creating global networks of
activists and experts
Fast and efficient recruitment of
activists
Higher transparency
DiploFoundation 2009DISINTERMEDIATION
Disappearance of
intermediaries (“cutting
out the middleman”) – in
modern economy (e-commerce,
e-tickets)
Diplomats are
intermediaries between
countries, warring parties,
different interests.
Will disintermediation affect
diplomats?
DiploFoundation 2009
Yes… and No…DISINTERMEDIATION YES, because… diplomats no longer enjoy an exclusive role. New intermediaries emerge, including NGOs, celebrities, religious organisations. NO, because… intermediaries will always be needed. Computers can remove intermediaries in buying flight tickets but not in mediating conflicts. Paradoxically, with more people getting closer through networks, there is more need for professional intermediation. One of characteristics of Modern Diplomacy DiploFoundation 2009 i d ll l i t di i i
NEED FOR “GLOBAL SYNC”
Global political elites have difficulties to
manage globalisation (current financial
crisis).
Growing gap between global political and
socio-economic order. Political order is
governed by states. Socio-economic order is
increasingly governed by wide variety of –
mainly – non-state actors.
For example – the Internet – a key part of
global Internet infrastructure is governed
by a non-state actor (ICANN).
How can lack of various global governance
DiploFoundation 2009
“sync” affect future of the world?ENVIORNMENT – ILLUSTRATION OF CHANGES
• Changing power structure – Changing
diplomatic representation
• Breakdown in distinction between
foreign and domestic policy
• Emergence of new actors in modern
diplomacy (civil society, local
movements, etc.).
DiploFoundation 2009NEW ACTORS - Facilitated by the Internet-based communication - Beyond governments and political elites - Diplomats’ monopoly in foreign relations has been undermined. - Need for dialogue with new actors in diplomacy (broad enough – deep enough). DiploFoundation 2009
NEW ACTORS – MUTUAL INTEREST
For Business Sector
civil society - the social environment
in which business has to operate
government – regulatory framework for
business
For Governments
civil society is important for
legitimacy and access to knowledge and
expertise
For Civil Society
governments provide access to
diplomatic fora.
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS on Diplomatic Agendas
Every new technological and social
development eventually brings new
political, legal, and economic
issues that need to be addressed
either at the national or the
international level, or both.
The telegraph, the telephone,
radio, the satellite, and the
Internet followed, more or less, a
similar pattern in becoming a
“topic on the diplomatic agenda.”
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS on Diplomatic Agendas
• Climate Change
• Trade
• Internet Governance
• Bio-diversity
• Global Health
• Migration
• …..
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS on Diplomatic Agendas
Multidisciplinary Nature of the New
Topics
New Topics are Systemic – Global
Actions are Fragmented by
Institutional Silos
New Topics are “Wicked Problems”
Increasing Importance of Science
Dealing with Different Professional
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS – “WICKED PROBLEMS”
Climate Change is “wicked problem”
(unique, have no definitive
formulation, can be considered
symptom of yet another problem)
Limitation of problem – solution
approach (complex interdependence
resist simple problem – solution;
one “solution” can trigger another
problem
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS – Increasing Importance of
Science
Can science discover ultimate and
impartial truth?
Is science objective?
Is science neutral?
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS – Increasing Importance of
Science
Example - Climate Change
What is causing climate change?
By how much is warming likely to
accelerate?
What level of warming is dangerous?
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS – Increasing Importance of
Science
Climate Change & Scientific
Uncertainty
Incomplete understanding how
climate works
Unpredictability of large, complex
and chaotic system such as the
global atmosphere and oceans
Unpredictability of human behavior
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS – Increasing Importance of
Science
IPCC based its scientific finding on
two main techniques:
Probability – likelihood of event
occurring
Negotiated Consensus
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS – Increasing Importance of
Science
Probability
IPCC use the following “probability
range”:
- virtually certain: > 99%
probability of occurrence
- very likely: > 90% probability
- likely: > 66% probability
- about as likely as not: 33 to 55%
probability
- unlikely: < 33% probability
DiploFoundation 2009
- very unlikely: < 1% probabilityNEW TOPICS – Increasing Importance of
Science
Scientific Consensus
Consensus does not provide “the
facts” or affirm “the truth”
Consensus – basis for many
criticism
Consensus – the best that science
has to offer
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
Importance of Inter-Professional Communication
national culture
ethnic culture
organisational culture
PROFESSIONAL CULTURE
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
Shared Reference Framework
terminology,
vocabulary and jargon,
a set of values,
perceptions of cause-and-effect
relationships, and
modes of reasoning.
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
“On each side of the table,
national culture and organisational
culture unite while professional
cultures divide.
Across the table, the situation is
the opposite: national culture and
organizational culture divide
whereas professional culture may
facilitate communication and
agreement.” (Faure 1999)
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
Example: Internet Governance –
Various Actors
DIPLOMATS – process/national interest
IT PEOPLE – respect facts, difference
between assumption and knowledge,
solution-oriented,
ACADEMICS – comprehensive, explaining
CIVIL SOCIETY – flexible, expertise, lack
of understanding of multilateral
communication context
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
Example: Use of E-mail in Internet
Governance Negotiations
There were three main professional
groups involved in the WGIG:
academics, engineers and diplomats.
Their e-mail exchanges
demonstrated distinct communication
styles.
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
“Let me Explain” - Academics
Main Characteristics of E-mail
Communication
Long Messages
Descriptive Style
Need to Provide General Context
Loose Points of Discussion
Very Frequent Self-referencing
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
“Let us Solve the Problem” -
Engineers
Main Characteristics of E-mail
Communication
Short Messages
Use of Bullet Points
Linking Causes with Solutions
Use of Technical Language
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
“Let me Present the Position of my Country”
- Diplomats
Main Characteristics of E-mail Communication
Very rare use of e-mail communication (only 3% of
total messages were sent by diplomats although
they constituted 25% of the WGIG members)
Formal communication (looks like official letter)
Use of “should/would”
Referencing to official documents/previous
decisions
Excessive use of passive voice by author
Will not limit themselves to short and succinct
points
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
Challenge for Diplomatic Culture
The exclusive approach worked well when
diplomatic activities were conducted
within limited and closed diplomatic
circles on both national and
international levels.
There is a need for inclusive approach
which should reflect changes in the
environment in which diplomats operate.
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOOLS for Diplomatic Activities
1950s
2000s
DiploFoundation 2009NEW TOPICS - Different Professional
Cultures
WEB 1.0 (websites and e-mail)
Huge amount of information
Google-based knowledge
How to get relevant and reliable
information?
WEB 2.0 (wiki, blog, social networking)
Centrality of the Text & Drafting
Informal Communication
Importance for Policy and Social
Networking
Web 3.0. (Virtual Reality)
Virtual Embassy
Virtual
DiploFoundation 2009 NegotiationsSUMMARY DiploFoundation 2009
Continuity and Change – FUTURE? NEED FOR MORE DIPLOMACY – representation of various entities; solving problems and conflicts in increasingly fragmented societies; new types of conflicts BY WHOM – not only by official diplomatic services; new actors will emerge empowered by technology AT WHAT LEVEL – all levels of society with important interplay among global, regional, national and local levels HOW – mix of traditional approaches (negotiations) and online approaches (regular diplomatic activities) DiploFoundation 2009
Continuity and Change – FUTURE? A FEW GRADUAL TRANSITIONS: - From a state craft to a management tool - From the management of order to the management of change - From a policy instrument to international process of social relations DiploFoundation 2009
Continuity and Change – FUTURE?
Nothing is as constant as change – Heraklit
THE MORE DIPLOMACY CHANGES,
THE MORE IT STAYS THE SAME.
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