Monthly Unemployment Update - July 2021

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Monthly Unemployment Update - July 2021
Monthly Unemployment Update – July 2021
Universal Credit – Searching for Work1
    • As of 13th June, 6.3% of the working age population in Tees Valley were claiming Universal Credit (UC)
      and searching for work, compared to 5.2% nationally.
    • The number of UC claimants fell compared to May, with a decrease of 1,365 across Tees Valley. The
      claimant rate fell by 0.3 percentage points in this time, in line with the change observed nationaly.
    • Compared to June last year there were 2,998 fewer claimants in Tees Valley, with the rate falling from
      7.1% to 6.3% in this time. This can be attributed to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic beginning to
      relax, despite unprecedented levels of demand for Universal Credit. This is demonstrated when
      compared to February 2020, with rises in the claimant rate of 2.1% for Tees Valley and 2.5%
      nationally.

Source: DWP Stat Xplore. Date of latest release: 15th July for provisional June 2021 data (as of 13th June).
Percentages are calculated from the 2020 ONS mid-year population estimates for 16-64 year olds unless otherwise stated.

The overall number of claims fell across all local authorities; Middlesbrough witnessed the highest
reduction at 405 fewer compared to last month, or a 0.5 percentage point change, this was also the largest
proportional reduction in claims for any local authority.

1 Searching forwork includes those who are not working, or with very low earnings. Claimant is required to take action to secure
work - or more / better paid work. Universal Credit has been rolled out to all new claimants in stages across Tees Valley in the
following order: Hartlepool - December 2016, Darlington - June 2018, Stockton - July 2018, Middlesbrough - October 2018 and
Redcar & Cleveland - November 2018. It is expected that DWP will begin moving all remaining existing benefit claimants to the
Universal Credit full service between July 2019 and December 2023.
Age breakdown
                                                                         •    5.4% of 16-19 year olds in Tees Valley are
                                                                              claiming UC and searching for work
                                                                              compared to 3.7% nationally. The Tees Valley
                                                                              rate has fallen by 0.7% from May, while
                                                                              nationally it fell by 0.3 percentage points.
                                                                         •    11.2% of 20-24 year olds are claiming UC
                                                                              compared to 7.7 % nationally. This has fallen
                                                                              by 0.6 percentage points over the last month
                                                                              both locally and nationally.
                                                                         •    8.7% of 25-29 year olds are claiming
                                                                              compared to 6.8% nationally. This represents
                                                                              a 0.3% reduction on last month locally and
                                                                              0.4% nationally.
                                                                         •    8.7% of 30-34 year olds are claiming
                                                                              compared to 6.8% nationally. At both local
                                                                              and national level the rate was 0.4% lower
                                                                              than last month.
                                                                         •    7.6% of 35-39 year olds are claiming
                                                                              compared to 5.8% nationally. This rate
                                                                              reduced by 0.4% compared to May 2021
                                                                              within the Tees Valley and at a national level.

Age breakdown by Local Authority
    •   12.2% of 20-24 year old Hartlepool residents are claiming UC and searching for work, almost 5
        percentage points higher than the national rate for this age group.
    •   The Tees Valley 20-24 claimant rate at 11.2% is 3.5 percentage points higher than the national rate,
        with this age range showing the highest percentage of claimants across all local authorities with the
        exception of Middlesbrough, where the 30-34 age bracket had the highest claimant rate at 11.3%.
    •   The 35-39 claimant rate in Middlesbrough, at 11.3% was almost double the national rate of 5.8%,
        and 3.7 percentage points higher than the Tees Valley figure of 7.6%.

The next update of DWP Universal Credit statistics is due on August 15th and will be a count of those claiming as of
13th July.
Alternative ONS claimant count
Designed to measure the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits (Job Seekers Allowance and
Universal Credit and available to work) by modelling what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been fully
rolled out since 2013 (when Universal Credit began) with the broader span of people this covers.

Estimates of headline unemployment are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, which is not available at
a local level or the Annual Population Survey which is unreliable at a local level due to sampling
variability.
    •    7.2% of the working age population in Tees Valley are claiming unemployment benefits, compared
         to 5.9% nationally.
    •    There are 1,692 fewer people claiming unemployment benefits in Tees Valley compared to the
         previous month, with the rate reducing by 0.4 percentage points, in line with the fallen withnessed
         nationally.
    •    Compared to May 2020, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits has fallen by 5,309
         people, with the Tees Valley rate falling by 1.3 percentage points over this time; greater than the
         fall of 0.7 percentage points observed nationally. This rise can be attributed to the effects of Covid-
         19 pandemic with unprecedented levels of demand for unemployment benefits.

Source: ONS. Date of latest release: 15th July for May 2021 data. Percentages are calculated from the 2020 ONS mid-year
population estimates for 16-64 year olds. The next update of the ONS Alternative Claimant Count is due on 12th October 2021.

    •    Following years of gradual decrease, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a sharp increase in the
         alternative claimant count in Tees Valley, regionally and nationally. As the impacts of COVID-19 are
         reduced and the economy starts to recover,it appears the claimant count is also reducing.
Youth Unemployment
    •    9.1% of 16-24 year olds in Tees Valley are claiming unemployment benefits, compared to 6.3%
         nationally.
    •    There were 379 fewer 16-24 year olds claiming unemployment benefits in Tees Valley in May 2021
         compared to the previous month, with the rate decreasing by 0.5 percentage points from 9.6% to
         9.1%.
    •    Compared to May 2020 the number of 16-24 year old Tees Valley residents claiming
         unemployment benefits has fallen by 899, with the rate reducing by 1.4 percentage points from
         10.4% to 9.1%, more of a reduction than seen nationally. .

Source: ONS. Percentages are calculated from the 2019 ONS mid-year population estimates for 16-24 year olds.

    •    Following years of broadly unchanged rates, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a sharp
         increase in the youth alternative claimant count in Tees Valley, regionally and nationally.
    •    All Tees Valley local authorities have followed broadly similar claimant count trajectories over the
         past five years.
    •    As the impacts of the pandemic begin to ease, the national and local economy begin to recover and
         pent up demand continues to generate investment, the claimant rate appears to be starting to
         return to pre-pandemic levels.

The next update of the ONS Alternative Claimant Count is due on 12th October 2021.
Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and Self-Employment Income Support
Scheme (SEISS)
The initial Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) was announced by the Government on 20th March
2020 in order to support employers unable to undertake their normal activities through the COVID-19
period. It allowed employers to make claims for employees furloughed after March 1st, offering financial
support up to 80% of salary for a maximum of £2,500 per month per employee, plus associated Employer
National Insurance contributions and pension contributions (up to the level of the minimum automatic
enrolment employer pension contribution) on that subsidised furlough pay. From 1st July these initial
support measures were closed for staff not already furloughed prior to the 30th of June, and for
employments furloughed thereafter the proportion of salary supported was reduced first to 70% from the
1st September and then to 60% from 1st October. However, from 1st November the scheme was extended
back to 80% of salary for claims relating to the period after 31st October. The current CJRS extension is set
to remain in place until 30th April 2021.

The Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) provides support for self-employed individuals
whose business has been adversely affected by Coronavirus (COVID-19). From 13th May 2020 eligible self-
employed individuals could claim a grant worth 80% of their average monthly trading profits. A total of
2.6m claims were filed by 13th July when this first tranche of support closed. Following this a second SEISS
grant scheme opened on 17th August, offering 70% of claimants’ average monthly trading profits, capped at
£6,570 in total. This was then followed by a third grant, available from 30th November, providing 80%
compensation for trading profits, with added eligibility criteria that claimants must have been eligible for
SEISS 1 & 2 and have either experienced reduced demand or have stopped trading due to coronavirus. The
below statistics relate to this third grant package.

The latest statistics on both these schemes, summarised below, are available at the following link:
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrc-coronavirus-covid-19-statistics

Jobs furloughed and self-employment income support claims made and accepted (as at 31st
May), UK and Tees Valley local authorities
                                                                   •   There were a total of 17,700 employments
                                                                       furloughed in Tees Valley as of May 31st,
                                                                       down from 26,500 as of April 2021.
                                                                   •   The takeup rate for the scheme decreased
                                                                       from 10% to 7% month-on-month.
                                                                   •   Female employments were on average
                                                                       placed on furghlough slightly less often, with
                                                                       the average take up rate of 6.00% vs 6.80%
                                                                       for Males.

                                                                   •   13,900 claims were made to the most recent
                                                                       SEISS grant as of 31st May, with a total
                                                                       takeup rate of 61%.
                                                                   •   The vast majority of claims were for male
                                                                       employments at over 70% of total claims.
                                                                   •   The male takeup rate for the grant, at 62%,
                                                                       was higher than that for female
                                                                       employments (58%).
                                                                  Source: HMRC CJRS and SEISS statistics

Next Unemployment update due Friday 19th August.
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