MOTION A WORLD IN Systems Engineering Vision 2025 - Incose
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A WORLD IN
MOTION
*
*
Systems Engineering Vision • 2025
Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering
The purpose of the P R O M OT E
Vision 2025 is to *
S YS T E M S
inspire and guide ENGINEERING
the direction of RESEARCH
systems engineering
across diverse
stakeholder
communities, which
include:
• Engineering ALIGN
Executives S YS T E M S
ENGINEERING
• Policy Makers I N I T I AT I V E S
• Academics &
Researchers
• Practitioners
• Tool Vendors ADDRESS
FUTURE
This vision will con- S YS T E M S
tinue to evolve based ENGINEERING
on stakeholder inputs CHALLENGES
and on-going collabora-
tions with professional
societies.
BROADEN
THE BASE OF
* Used with permission of SAE In-
ternational”. This license explicitly S YS T E M S
does not extend to any use of the
“A WORLD IN MOTION” mark on ENGINEERING
or in conjunction with any STEM-
related products or services that P R AC T I T I O N E R S
INCOSE provides or may provide
in the future.
Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering
i
Contents
T H E G LO B A L
CO N T E X T F O R
S YS T E M S
ENGINEERING
1
Realizing
the vision
Education
Societal needs
and training
G
PA ES Global trends
Roles and
competencies 1-14
Engineering
Systems challenges
engineering
Systems Engineering foundations
Technology
trends
Transforming
focuses on ensuring systems
engineering System
trends and
the pieces work together Applications
A D VA N C E
AND INFUSE
characteristics
of systems
S YS T E M
engineering
ENGINEERING The work
to achieve the
3
environment
objectives of the whole.
G
PA ES PAGES
23- 47 15-22
Reference: Systems Engineering Body
THE CURRENT
of Knowledge (SEBoK) THE FUTURE
S TAT E O F
S TAT E O F
S YS T E M S
S YS T E M S
ENGINEERING
ENGINEERING
Current practices
and challenges Historical
2
trends
Foundations Diversity of
and standards application domains
ii Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering iii
S TAT E O F
S YS T E M S
ENGINEERING
S Y S T E M S E N G I N E E R I N G
SYSTEMS
SOLUTIONS
IMPERATIVES
Expanding the APPLICATION of systems engineering
across industry domains.
Embracing and learning from the diversity of systems
engineering APPROACHES.
THEORY & PRACTICE
OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
Applying systems engineering to help shape policy
related to SOCIAL AND NATURAL SYSTEMS.
Expanding the THEORETICAL foundation for systems
engineering.
LEARN
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
APPLY
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
Advancing the TOOLS and METHODS to address
complexity.
Enhancing EDUCATION and TRAINING to grow a
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING WORKFORCE that meets
the increasing demand.
P R AC T I T I O N E R
iv Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering v
1 The Global Context for
Systems Engineering
The vision for systems engineering in 2025 is shaped by the global environment, human and
societal needs, policy and business challenges, as well as the technologies that underly sys-
tems. The evolving work environment, following global trends, both constrains and enables
the manner in which systems engineering is practiced. In this section, we highlight the nature
of evolving systems and the global context that systems engineering must respond to.
Human and
Societal Needs Global Trends
TH E EN V I RON MEN T TH E ENVIRONMENT
Grand
Technology Engineering
Trends Challenges
SYSTEMS SOLU TIONS
THE EN ABL ERS
System
Trends
TO I N SPI RE AN D GUI D E
Work
Environment
Trends
Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Global Context • 1
GENERAL
HUMAN AND
S O C I E TA L N E E D S
Human and Societal Needs
Give Rise to Engineering Challenges
Human needs have hardly changed over the centu-
ries. Societal needs are similar throughout the world,
Humanity has always attempted, through engineer- When we look for ways to meet fundamental and systems must respond to such needs.
ing and technology, to make the world a better human needs, we see that the solutions often lead
place. With our ever-evolving society, however, to large and complex engineered systems —
come new and ever greater challenges. systems that can only be successful if they are
socially acceptable and provide value to society.
FOOD AND
S H E LT E R
CLEAN
WAT E R
Human
Needs
Translate Human Welfare
To . . . H E A LT H Y
and Prosperity
of Society ( P H YS I C A L )
ENVIRONMENT
ACC E S S TO
Societal Health, Mobility, H E A LT H
Needs That Energy, Food, Shelter,
Are Satisfied By . . . Security, Communications,
CARE
Education, Environment, etc.
ACC E S S TO
I N F O R M AT I O N ,
CO M M U N I C AT I O N ,
Natural Resource Management Systems
E D U C AT I O N
Energy and Transport Systems
System Financial and Insurance Systems
Solutions Agriculture and Food Management Systems
Ecological Systems
T R A N S P O R TAT I O N
Information Systems, etc
AND MOBILITY
E CO N O M I C S E C U R I T Y
Needs Drive Systems – Systems Satisfy Needs
AND EQUITY
SECURITY AND SAFETY
2 • The Global Context Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Global Context • 3
G LO B A L
TRENDS
Global Trends
Shape the Systems Environment
Global trends include changes to both socio- time, systems solutions and technology itself can
economic conditions and changes in our physi- adversely impact air and water quality. There are
cal environment. These global changes impose clearly many other examples of these interdepen-
new demands on the types of systems that are dencies, both positive and negative. Global inter- INCREASING STRESS ON THE I N C R E A S I N G P O P U L AT I O N
needed, yet are often impacted by the very dependence often amplifies the impact of these S U S TA I N A B I L I T Y O F N AT U R A L G R O W T H A N D U R B A N I Z AT I O N
R E S O U R C E S D U E TO
technology and system developments meant to changes. The global community is calling for more . . . results in changing population
satisfy the human needs. For example, increased attention to how systems can positively contribute . . . consumption of non-renewable distributions, “smart” cities, larger
population growth and urbanization impose to our social condition and natural environment to resources and higher demand markets and greater opportunities
new challenges on transportation, health, and help advance our quality of life. resulting from population and eco-
other modern infrastructures, while at the same nomic growth require better global . . . but also great societal stress,
management, recycling, sustainable I N C R E A S I N G G LO B A L I Z AT I O N urban infrastructure demands, and
policies, and supporting systems increased system challenges for
. . . results in higher levels of political
agriculture, environmental health
. . . creating system challenges for and economic interdependence,
and sustainability.
more efficient resource utilization, the need to share resources and
better use of renewable resources, interconnect systems for global
waste disposal, and re-use opportu- partnerships
nities. . . . but also results in new collabo-
ration mechanisms and new system I N C R E A S I N G LY I N T E R D E P E N -
G LO B A L I Z AT I O N – D E N T E CO N O M I E S
CO U N T R I E S , P E O P L E , challenges for global disaster relief,
I N D U S T R Y, T R A D E information and communication . . . have become globally inter-
P O P U L AT I O N G R O W T H & U R B A N I Z AT I O N security, and sharing of knowledge twined, relying upon the effective-
E N V I R O N M E N TA L C H A N G E
INCREASING and technology. ness of national, regional and local
S O C I O - E CO N O M I C INTERDEPENDENT
E CO N O M I E S . . . results in major shifts in living infrastructure systems
CHALLENGES
conditions, and impacts biodiversity,
P E R S O N A L A N D S O C I E TA L S E C U R I T Y . . . but require improved coordina-
weather, sea level, and the availabilty
tion mechanisms and global policies
of water and other natural resources.
to meet economic and financial
INCREASING G LO B A L . . . which in turn is affected by water system challenges while remaining
P H YS I C A L E N V I R O N M E N TA L C H A N G E
and other natural resources, global, balanced and equitable.
ENVIRONMENT
regional and local policies and deci-
CHALLENGES S U S TA I N A B I L I T Y O F
N AT U R A L R E S O U R C E S sions to mitigate anthropogenic
environmental impacts.
4 • The Global Context Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Global Context • 5
HUMAN AND
S O C I E TA L N E E D S
DRIVE
ENGINEERING
CHALLENGES
Engineering Challenges
Engineered Systems are Key to Satisfying Human and
Restore and
Societal Needs Improve Urban
Infrastructure
Manage the
Engineer the Tools
The US National Academy of Engineering (NAE) Nitrogen Cycle
of Scientific
NAE ENGINEERING GRAND CHALLENGES Discovery
identified Grand Engineering Challenges for the
21st Century. Linking these to human and societal
needs highlights the diversity and landscape of F O O D A N D S H E LT E R
domains to which the discipline of systems engi- 11. Make solar
energy economical
neering should contribute. Enhance
2. Provide energy Virtual C L E A N WAT E R
2 Reality
Large and often complex engineered systems from fusion Provide Energy Provide Access
From Fusion To Clean Water
are key to addressing the Grand Challenges and
satisfying human and social needs that are physi- 3. Develop carbon ACC E S S TO I N F O R M AT I O N ,
3 Make Solar CO M M U N I C AT I O N , A N D E D U C AT I O N
sequestration
cal, psychological, economic and cultural. However, methods
Energy Economical
these systems must be embedded in the prevailing Advance
ENERGY SECURITY AND
social, physical, cultural and economic environ- 4.
4 Manage the S U S TA I N A B I L I T Y Personalized
nitrogen cycle Learning
ment, and the technologies applied to system
solutions must be tailored to the relevant local or Engineer
5. Provide access Better
regional capabilities and resources. Full life-cycle 5 Medicines
ACC E S S TO H E A LT H C A R E
to clean water
analyses and safe, robust and sustainable imple-
mentation approaches, along with stable gover-
66. Restore and Reverse T R A N S P O R TAT I O N A N D Advance
nance environments are enablers for successful improve urban Engineer MOBILITY Health
infrastructure the Brain Informatics
system solutions.
7.
7 Advance health H E A LT H Y ( P H YS I C A L ) E N V I R O N M E N T
informatics
8. Engineer better E CO N O M I C S E C U R I T Y A N D
8 Develop
medicines EQUITY
Carbon
Sequestration
9. Reverse-engineer Methods
9 SECURITY AND SAFETY
the brain
10. Prevent nuclear
10
terror
Secure
Cyberspace
11. Secure cyberspace
11
Prevent
12. Enhance virtual
12 Nuclear Terror
reality
13. Advance
13
personalized
learning
14
14. Engineer the tools of
scientific discovery
6 • The Global Context Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Global Context • 7
I N F LU E N T I A L
T E C H N O LO G Y
D E V E LO P M E N T S
Technology Development and Infusion Impact
the Nature of Future Systems
Technological advances in basic components, sub- and products will both depend upon and result in
systems and infrastructure will produce innovations new, evermore complex systems. CO M P U TAT I O N A L P O W E R S E N S O R T E C H N O LO G I E S
at an increasing pace, leading to sophisticated new . . . continues to increase while comput- . . . provide information to a multitude of
services and products. The internet, for example, With technology infusion rates increasing, the ers are getting smaller and more efficient. systems about location, human inputs, envi-
has progressed from an emerging technology to pressure of time to market will also increase, yet cus- Extensive reasoning and data management H U M A N - CO M P U T E R I N T E R AC T I O N ronmental context and more. For example,
having a profound impact on commerce and our tomers will be expecting improved product func- capabilities are now embedded in everyday . . . technologies enable the exploration of GPS now provides complete and accurate
personal lives in just 20 years. These new services tionality, aesthetics, operability, and overall value. systems, devices and appliances, yet data virtual environments allowing engineers to information about a system’s geographic
centers exhibit very high power densities interact more deeply and comprehensively position - information that was previously
requiring more sustainable power and ther- with systems before they are built. They unobtainable. Advances in medical systems,
mal management systems. also advance human control by integrating Geographic Information Systems and many
multiple information streams into manage- industrial systems are based upon ever better
able pieces. and more efficient sensor technologies.
100
Microwave TV Electricity Phone CO M M U N I C AT I O N T E C H N O LO G I E S
1953 1926 1873 1876
90 . . . bring our world closer together and
P E N E T R AT I O N I N TO T H E M A R K E T ( % )
enable systems that are aware of and can re- B I O - T E C H N O LO G Y
S O F T WA R E S YS T E M S
80 spond to much greater environmental stimuli . . . contributes to health and human
N E W T E C H N O LO G I E S Video recorder Car . . . embody algorithms that manage system
C H A N G E O U R D A I LY 1952 1886 and information needs. welfare, but can have unintended conse-
70 state but also reason about the system’s
L I F E AT A N E V E R
quences.
I N C R E A S I N G R AT E external environment and accomplishment
Source: Forbes magazine 60 of objectives. As systems become more
Internet
“intelligent” and dominate human-safety
50 1975
PC critical applications, software certification
1975 and system reliability and integrity become
40
more important and challenging.
Mobile Phone
30 1983
20
M I N I AT U R I Z AT I O N
10 . . . of system components provides increased
M AT E R I A L S C I E N C E
capabilities in smaller and more efficient
0 . . . new capabilities lead to systems with
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 packages but can contribute to hidden
improved properties, such as weight and
YEARS levels of system complexity.
volume, electrical conductance, strength,
sustainability or environmental compatibility.
8 • The Global Context Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Global Context • 9
S YS T E M
C H A R AC T E R I S T I C S
System Trends
Sustainable
Stakeholder Expectations Drive System
Trends Across a wide variety of domains, stakeholders
Scalable
System performance expectations and many sys- are demanding increased functionality, higher inating
dom sy
tem characteristics will reflect the global societal reliability, shorter product life cycles, and lower re
e
st
prices. Stakeholders are also demanding environ- h
and technological trends that shape stakeholder Safe
t
em
to
values. Examples of system stakeholders are: mentally and socially acceptable solutions that
pr
g
assure safety and personal security while deliver- I N T E R CO N N E C T E D
Leadin
oper
System Users ing more value to the users. In maximizing value Smart
• The general public to stakeholders, systems engineers have to cope INTERDEPENDENT
ties
• Public and private corporations with greater levels of complexity and interdepen- Stable
• Trained System Operators CO M P L E X
dence of system elements as well as cost, sched-
System Sponsors ules and quality demands.
Simple
• Funding organizations
• Investors
• Industrial leaders and politicians S U S TA I N A B L E
Secure S O C I A L LY
systems take into ACC E P TA B L E
Policy Makers
account: acceptable Socially Acceptable social, environ-
• Politicians Ei er
s
cost of total owner- gh mental and eco-
tk old
• Public/private administrators ship; full product life
ey eh nomic concerns
cycle management; sys stak interact.
management of tem by SECURE
chara red
product diversity; SCALABLE cteristics desi system complexity,
Stakeholder
systems are adapt- global connectivity
pre-planned product acceptability of
able to a range of and IT-dependence
evolution; upgrades SAFE
systems is increas-
E N V I R O N M E N TA L SIMPLE give rise to system
while operational; performance and ingly influenced
Viable natural environment systems, driven by systems are main- vulnerabilities.
S YS T E M S O F T H E & conservation of system capabilities SMART S TA B L E by socio-economic
software-intensive tainable and avoid The challenges for
FUTURE NEED natural resources. without breaking systems are able to systems of the future issues and con-
designs, are increas- operator error. averting unwanted
their fundamental cope with a chang- must be stable and cerns of sustain-
TO M E E T M A N Y, ingly being used in intrusions or for miti-
architecture. This ing and unknown reliable in order to: ability.
S O M E T I M E S CO N - Systems engineers applications in which Systems engineers gating the results
must be able to is an important trait environment, assist meet key operational must strive to find of intrusions have
FLICTING NEEDS system safety is a
because of the high human operators, or requirements and solutions that have grown enormously.
balance sometimes significant concern.
cost associated with self-organize to pro- availability needs; simple architectures
contradictory
vide unanticipated achieve customer and interfaces, are Systems engineers
demands. initial infrastructure
Systems engineers products & services . acceptance;
investments or understandably must analyze
must be able to as- operate efficiently; failure tolerant and cyber threats and
non-recurring avoid liability; and
sure ever-increasing Systems engineers easy to use. contribute to global
Sustainable engineering. must integrate provide expected
levels of safety and security policies
development resilience in the face social, functional system value. ensuring cyber
Systems engineers and physical
of increasing systems security and cyber
must deal with demands to create Systems engineers defense against both
complexity.
SOCIAL E CO N O M I C
scalability and valuable system must validate sys- ad hoc and organized
Nurturing adaptability from solutions that are tems to be consistent threats.
Sufficient the project start and resilient in their with customer
community economy reconcile the conflict operational environ- expectations across
with product opti- ment. a wide variety of
mization for single use cases and stress
applications. conditions.
10 • The Global Context Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Global Context • 11Trends of Emerging System Properties The Work Environment
Inter-connectivity and interdependence are char- of the coupling. Interconnectivity produces
acteristics that, by themselves provide no instrinsic vulnerabilities and risks that need to be analyzed
value. Value is gained by building systems with and exposed for systems managers, sponsors and
these characteristics to address stakeholder desires. public policy decision makers. These properties
Global competition drives innovation and enter- The systems engineering workforce of the future
In doing so, complexity, both necessary and unnec- will drive future systems design regardless of dif-
prises. In the face of competition, industry collabo- is geographically dispersed, culturally diverse,
essary, emerges from the system designs because ferent markets and applications domains.
ration, is increasing worldwide, with an emphasis gender agnostic, multi-disciplinary and trans-
on dispersed, multi-disciplinary teams. Collabora- generational.
tive engineering for global product development
via international supply chain partnerships extends A new generation will be rapidly taking the place
the scope of enterprises. Innovation in this com- of retiring engineers as the “Baby Boomer” genera-
petitive environment is driving industry to time- tion matures, requiring a strategy for transitioning
compressed product cycles. knowledge
Business environment
System of systems
T H E R O OT S
Enterprise, organizational
FOR GROWING governance (decentralized)
LEVELS OF Time-compressed IT-leveraged
S YS T E M S product cycles
CO M P L E X I T Y
Network intensive
Increasing
complexity,
Software intensive
cumulative
ambiguity, “Cooperative
“lack of Cost-constrained KEY ASPECTS OF
Competition”
control” T H E E V O LV I N G
Workforce environment S YS T E M S E N G I -
Electronic, isolated
NEERING WORK
islands of software
ENVIRONMENT
Adapted from the AFIS
Vision
Globally
dispersed
Diverse distributed
Mechanical
and
electrical elements
The work environment Multi-disciplinary
impacts the way in which
systems engineering is
practiced
12 • The Global Context Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Global Context • 13SUMMARY
THE SYSTEMS OF THE FUTURE
2 The Current State of
Systems Engineering
To understand the desired future state of systems engineering, it is essential to un-
derstand the current state. This section highlights key aspects of the current state of
… need to respond to … need to become … need to be engi-
practice to help predict and guide its future directions.
an ever growing and smarter, self-organized, neered by an evolving,
diverse spectrum of sustainable, resource- diverse workforce
societal needs in order efficient, robust and which, with increas- The previous section provides a global context for systems engineering, by character-
to create value safe in order to meet ingly capable tools, can izing systems that systems engineers help develop and the work environment in which
stakeholder demands innovate and respond to systems engineering is practiced. Today’s systems engineering practices and challeng-
… need to harness competitive pressures es are greatly influenced by the global context. These practices have evolved differently
the ever growing body … need to be aligned across different industries but are built on common foundations and standards.
of technology innova- with global trends in
tions while protecting industry, economy and
against unintended society, which will, in
consequences turn, influence system
needs and expectations Historical Application
Trends Domains
CORE PR AC TI CES D I VER SIT Y
ction 1
Se
System Trends Foundations
Work Environment and Standards
GLOBAL CON TEX T CODIF IC ATION
Current SE
Practices
(examples)
Challenges for the
future of SE
14 • The Global Context Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Current State • 15Historical Trends in Systems Systems Engineering Across
and Systems Engineering Application Domains
Some consider systems engineering to be a young ers are demanding and the advancement in tech- Systems engineering is an accepted practice in product or a service are all factors that influence
discipline, while others consider it to be quite old. nologies that enable these capabilities. the aerospace and defense industry, and is gain- the practice.
Whatever your perspective, systems and the prac- Other factors have impacted systems engineering. ing recognition as a discipline in other industries.
tice for developing them has existed a long time. Advancements in technology not only impact the Systems engineers have different names in these Systems engineering is being adapted to support
The constant through this evolution of systems is kinds of systems that are developed, but also the different industries, and each application domain many application domains in both common and
an ever increasing complexity which can be ob- tools used by systems engineers. System failures may have unique drivers that impact the systems industry-unique ways. Embracing the diversity of
served in terms of the number of system functions, have provided lessons that impact the practice, engineering practice. The extent to which the in- practice while leveraging practices that deal with
components, and interfaces and their non-linear and factors related to the work environment dustry is market-driven or government-contracted, common system challenges enriches the disci-
interactions and emergent properties. Each of remind us that systems engineering is a human whether a product is delivered as a subsystem of a pline.
these indicators of complexity has increased dra- undertaking. A look back in time can provide larger system or whether it is delivered as an end
matically over the last fifty years, and will continue insight into the factors and trends that will impact
to increase due to the capabilities that stakehold- the future directions of systems engineering.
S YS T E M S
ENGINEERING
I S P R AC T I C E D Information
D I F F E R E N T LY
Number of Components AC R O S S M A N Y
A P P L I C AT I O N
Number of Functions DOMAINS Consumer Energy
Number of Interactions Electronics
Aerospace
Biomedical
Application and Defense
Domains
Systems Engineering Tools
Transportation
A LO O K AT Automotive
T H E PA S T
SHEDS LIGHT
ON THE Public
FUTURE
Policy
5000 BC 1200 AD 1750 AD 1850 AD 1900 AD 1980 AD 2010 AD
16 • The Current State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Current State • 17DIVERSITY OF DIVERSITY OF
P R AC T I C E P R AC T I C E
I N CO N S U M E R I N A E R O S PAC E
ELECTRONICS AND DEFENSE
S YS T E M S
W H AT S YS T E M S E N G I N E E R S A R E C A L L E D W H AT S YS T E M S E N G I N E E R S A R E C A L L E D
tems
Sys
Arc tec
oduct De System A tem Platfo
Pr on Sys
hi
n rm
io
ve
rc
si
New
Mi s
hite
loper
ystem E
t
ct S
ss
De
u ng
Mi
od
vel
ct
oduct Pla
Pr
in
Pr
op
ee
tfo
er
r
rm Engine
Analyst
ssion Develop
Mi
Mis ion
er
ew
s
er
N
Ch
ie
Archite
fS
Ne
yst
o d uc t
ct
w
ystems Engine
em Engine
nS er
Pro
io
Pr
iss
d u c t En g
Advanced M
er
ne e r
E n gi n e ng i
sE
ne
i
em
er
er
o d uc t
st
Sy
Ne
on
Pr
w
Develope
Missi
rm
Pro
r
uct Platfo
d uc t E
te
m E ng chnical Dir
Te
b-Sys
n
ine
ec
gi
nee
od
tor
r
er
Pr
Su
W H AT S YS T E M S E N G I N E E R S C A R E A B O U T W H AT S YS T E M S E N G I N E E R S C A R E A B O U T
APPLIANCES HOME ELECTRONICS MOBILE ELECTRONICS CO M M E R C I A L S PAC E DEFENSE
• Time to Market • Time to Market • Time to Market • Critical Mission Performance • Critical Mission Performance • Critical Mission Performance
• Optimize Against Variation • New Technology Infusion • New Technology Infusion • Survivability • Survivability • Survivability
• Cost and Quality Balance • Modular Design • Performance, Cost and • New Technology Integration • Enabling New Technology • New Technology Integration
Quality Balance of Innovation
• Product Architecture Reuse • Performance, Cost and Balance • Safety, Performance, and Cost • Extensible Capability
• Product Cost vs. Operational Cost
• Consumer Configurable • Product Architecture Reuse • Performance vs. Operational Cost
• Product Architecture Reuse
• Product Architecture Reuse
18 • The Current State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Current State • 19CURRENT
P R AC T I C E
EXAMPLES
Foundations and Standards
Grown from the need to deal with complexity in
the aerospace and defense industries, systems en-
gineering practices have been based primarily on
experience — trial and error. Over time, heuristics Today’s researchers are revisiting current sys-
were developed to tackle complex problems sys- tems engineering practices to ground them
S YS T E M S tematically and holistically. This systems engineer- in a sound foundation built on mathematical M O D E L I N G , S I M U L AT I O N , A N D V I S UA L I Z AT I O N S YS T E M O F S YS T E M S E N G I N E E R I N G
ENGINEERING
ing body of knowledge today is documented in theory and science. Further development of
B O DY O F When Boeing unveiled its latest jet, the 787 Dreamliner – it was a The Thameslink Rail Capability Programme is a £5.5Bn rail
KNOWLEDGE a broad array of standards, handbooks, academic this theoretical foundation is needed to allow virtual rollout. Boeing virtually created parts, and integrated and upgrade program to improve North-South commuter traffic into
literature, and web-resources, focusing on a variety systems engineering to expand into new assembled the system prior to cutting metal. London. It is led by Network Rail and overseen by the UK De-
of domains. A concerted effort is being made to domains and deal with increased complexity, partment for Transportation. Systems engineering approaches
continually improve, update and further organize without having to repeat a costly trial-and- Visualization and simulation helped identify incompatibili-
have been applied to ensure that the rolling stock, signalling,
this body of knowledge. error learning process. ties in interfaces and assembly processes early in design
new stations, and railroad can meet all needs (including number
before hardware costs were fully committed, avoiding costly
of passengers, target journey times, and system safety).
redesign late in the system design life cycle.
Source: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/science/jan-june07/air- Understanding this complex system of systems requires the
plane_01-09.html
use of comprehensive systems approach to analyze not only
Current Systems Engineering Practices the traditional technical issues, but also the policy issues
and Challenges and the human behavior of the users.
Current systems engineering practice, based on stakeholders, but in the future, the systems com-
well-defined processes and innovative analytic munity must tackle many new fundamental inter-
approaches, has demonstrated significant value to disciplinary and integration-related challenges.
FIVE
1 4
Mission complexity is growing faster than our
S YS T E M S Knowledge and investment are lost between
ability to manage it . . . increasing mission risk D E S I G N T R AC E A B I L I T Y BY M O D E L - B A S E D S YS T E M S
ENGINEERING projects . . . increasing cost and risk: dampen-
from inadequate specifications and incom- ENGINEERING
CHALLENGES ing the potential for true product lines.
plete verification.
Adapted from Todd P R O D U C T - FA M I LY A N D CO M P O S A B L E D E S I G N
Bayer, Jet Propulsion The software and electronics of modern automobiles are
Laboratory becoming increasingly complex. Ford Motor Company has Scania trucks is a Scandinavian company that provides custom-
been applying model-based systems engineering to manage izable solutions for long haul, distribution, construction and
2 5
System design emerges from pieces, rather Technical and programmatic sides of projects design complexity including architecture, requirements, inter- special purpose trucking. Clients have the ability to customize
than from architecture . . . resulting in systems are poorly coupled . . . hampering effective faces, behavior and test vectors. their vehicle by selecting the cab, engine, chassis, engine, trans-
that are brittle, difficult to test, and complex project risk-based decision making.
and expensive to operate. Ford has established digital design traceability across mission and accessories.
their onboard electrical and software systems by applying Scania’s composable approach starts at the component level
multiple integrated modeling technologies including UML, – with common engine cylinders, push rods and combustion
Most major disasters such as Challenger and
3
Knowledge and investment are lost at project SysML, Simulink with an underlying CM/PDM system.
6
Columbia have resulted from failure to recognize chambers to drive up parts interchangeability, and drive
life cycle phase boundaries . . . increasing
and deal with risks. The Columbia Accident In- Source: Presenter Chris Davey. http://www.omgwiki.org/MBSE/lib/exe/fetch. down variations for maintenance.
development cost and risk of late discovery php?media=mbse:03-2013_incose_mbse_workshop-ford_automotive_complex-
vestigation Board determined that the preferred Source: http://www.scania.com/ products-services/trucks
of design problems ity_v4.0-davey.pdf
approach is an “independent technical authority”.
20 • The Current State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Current State • 21.
SUMMARY
CURRENT STATE OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
3 The Future State
of Systems Engineering
By 2025, Systems Engineering will have made significant strides in meeting the challenges and
Systems engineering Systems engineering Integration across
continues to evolve practices are still disciplines, phases needs described in the Global Context for Systems Engineering. Its relevance and influence will
in response to a long based on heuristics, of development, and go beyond traditional aerospace and defense systems and extend into the broader realm of engi-
history of increasing but a theoretical projects represents neered, natural and social systems.
system complexity. foundation is being a key systems engi-
established. neering challenge. Systems engineering will grow and thrive because it brings a multi-disciplinary perspective that
Systems engineering is critical to system product innovation, defect reduction and customer satisfaction. Systems
is gaining recognition Cross fertilization of
engineering will be recognized broadly by governments and industry as a discipline of high value
across industries, systems engineering
to a wide spectrum of application domains because the above contributions, combined with
academia and practices across
governments. industries has begun assessment and management of risk and complexity, are key to competitiveness in many industries.
slowly but surely;
Systems engineering however, the global need ction 1
Broadening Systems Engineering
Se
System Trends and Work
practice varies across for systems capabilities Application Domains
Environment Trends
industries, organiza- has outpaced the progress
tions, and system in systems engineering.
types. ction 2
Se
Current Systems Engineering Methods and Tools
Practice, Gaps
and Challenges
Education Theoretical
Foundations
The
Path
Forward
22 • The Current State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Future State • 23Transformative technologies are difficult to predict but one can be certain that disruptive tech- Applications of Systems
nologies such as 3D printing, autonomous transportation systems, and new kinds of materi- Engineering
als will impact both the nature of systems as well as the way in which systems are developed.
Systems engineering practices will adapt to and be transformed by new technology as efforts
become more IT-centric and globally distributed among diverse collaborating enterprises. Applying Systems Engineering Across Industry Domains
Changes in the social, economic and political environments in which emerging technologies are F R O M T O
infused will impact the market drivers for system capabilities as well as the work environment Systems engineering is a recognized discipline Systems engineering is broadly recognized by
within Aerospace and Defense, and is applied in global economic and business leaders as a val-
where systems engineering is performed. Systems engineering will assist in the assessment of
many other domains as well. However, it is only ue-added discipline related to a wide variety of
public policies designed to mitigate the negative aspects of technology on our social-physical recently being recognized as a formal discipline commercial products, systems and services, as
systems and help shape the global societal trends of the future. in other industry domains such as automotive, well as government services and infrastructure.
transportation, and biomedical. The lack of This broad community of practitioners result
recognition of systems engineering as a formal in the sharing and maturation of more robust
Systems engineering’s theoretical foundations will advance to better deal with complexity and
discipline in other industry domains limits the systems engineering practices and foundations.
the global demands of the discipline, forming the basis for systems education as well as the ability of systems engineering practitioners to
methods and tools used by practicing systems engineers for system architecting, system design share and mature their practices.
and system understanding.
Systems engineering must scale and add value and healthcare. Systems engineering will also
Methods and tools, based on solid theoretical foundations, will advance to address the market to a broad range of systems, stakeholders, and contribute to assessments and analysis of socio-
demands of innovation, productivity, and time to market as well as product quality and safety by organizations with a diversity of size and complex- physical systems such as the global climate system
harnessing the power of advancements in modeling, simulation and knowledge representation, ity. In particular, the discipline will be increasingly to inform stakeholders and decision makers of the
relevant to global socio-technical and large-scale emergent impacts of organizational and public
such as domain-specfic standard volcabularies, thereby meeting the needs of an increasingly di- enterprise systems such as urban transportation policy actions.
verse stakeholder community. The methods and tools will also keep pace with system complexity
that continues to be driven by customers demanding ever increasing system interconnected-
ness, autonomy, ready access to information, and other technology advances associated with the
SHARING OF
digital revolution, such as “The Internet of Things” (reference IEEE Computer, Feb. 2013 ). Systems P R AC T I C E S A N D
K N O W L E D G E AC R O S S
engineering will lead the effort to drive out unnecessary complexity through well-founded archi- DOMAINS (AND ADD-
tecting and deeper system understanding. I N G VA LU E TO E AC H
DOMAIN)
Biomedical Transportation Consumer Products
Education and training of systems engineers and the infusion of systems thinking across a
broad range of the engineering and management workforce will meet the demands for a grow-
ing number of systems engineers with the necessary technical and leadership competencies.
Systems
Engineering
Body of
Knowledge
Automotive Energy
24 • The Future State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Future State • 25PERFORMING
ASSESSMENTS
TO S U P P O R T
POLICY
MAKING
• Diverse application domains such as consumer products, biomedical, healthcare,
automotive, and energy production
T H E S YS T E M
ENGINEERING • Geographic scope, both regionally and nationally
DISCIPLINE WILL
An assessment is produced by systems engineers to prepare knowledge from ex-
E X PA N D I T S • Enterprises from small to medium to large
APPLICABILITY perts’ and other stakeholder inputs for use by decision makers. This helps ensure
A N D R E CO G N I - • Government projects and policy at international, national and local levels decision makers have the information they need, and in a form they can act on.
T I O N A LO N G
SEVERAL FRONTS • Breadth and scope of systems from individual systems to large scale system
of systems.
Knowledge . . . assesses the usability of expert knowledge
• Increased emphasis on downstream life cycle phases such as sustainment Certification by non-experts (e.g. policy makers).
Applying Systems Engineering to Policy Knowledge . . . provides knowledge from different sources, and is
Assembly integrated to meet the needs of the decision maker.
F R O M T O
Public policy decisions are often made without Systems engineering takes its place with other
leveraging a well-defined systems approach to systems-related, integrative disciplines such as
. . . converts complex concepts into “decision-ready” forms
understand the diverse set of stakeholder needs economics, human ecology, geography, and eco-
Knowledge that frame decision options and motivations for action in
and the implications of various policy options. nomic anthropology to structure more objective Translation politically, economically, and culturally aware terms.
cost, benefit and risk assessments of alternative
policy executions. The addition of a formal sys-
tems approach helps decision-makers to select
cost effective, safe, and sustainable policies that
are more broadly embraced by the stakeholder Knowledge . . . connects the knowledge to a government system, the forum
community. Delivery by which decision makers can use the knowledge.
• Modeling and simulation is widely used to support integrated planning for a better
representation of real-world constraints and solutions
• Capabilities for generating characterizations and visualizations for complex policy issues The state of the Earth system will be made widely available in near real time.
are greatly improved and are approachable by policy makers and other stakeholders Earth
Continuous awareness of the Earth system state will be communicated to deci-
Understanding sion makers and the public. By blending technologies, policies and institutions,
• Observational data sources and models are assessed for uncertainty and applicability for
On Demand
specific decision-making needs a knowledge-dense cyber-infrastructure will provide an always-on management
service that communities and industries everywhere can access on demand.
• Tools and methods better integrate physical and socio-economic information into holistic
and sustainable solutions
*Adapted from Knowledge Action Networks: Rethinking the Way We Think About Climate Change Assessments. Charles F. Kennel.
26 • The Future State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Future State • 27Transforming Systems Complex System Understanding
Engineering
F R O M T O
Today, stakeholders are demanding increasingly In 2025 and beyond, standard measures of
capable systems that are growing in complexity, complexity will be established, and methods
Value Driven Practices for Developing Systems in 2025 and Beyond yet complexity-related system misunderstand- for tracking and handling complex system
ing is at the root of significant cost overruns and behaviors and mitigating undesired behaviors
Systems engineering practices will continue system failures. There is broad recognition that will be commonplace.
ADAPTABLE AND SC AL ABLE ME THODS
to evolve from current practice to meet the there is no end in sight to the system complexity
demands of complex systems and work environ- curve.
Systems engineering methods will be scalable to sys-
ments of the 21st century. Leveraging informa-
tem and organizational complexity and size. The meth-
tion technology and establishing the theoretical
ods will also be tailored to the application domain.
foundations for value driven systems engineering
Method selection will be value driven to optimize Systems engineering practices will include both indicators of system health, similar to how a per-
practices will pave the way for meeting these
project schedule, cost, and technical risk. Methods and formal and semi-formal methods for identifying son’s temperature and white blood count are used
demands to enhance competitiveness, manage
tools will scale from small and medium sized enter- emergent behaviors and dealing with unantici- to indicate the presence of infection. Capitalizing
complexity, and satisfy continuously evolving
prises to multi-billion dollar projects. pated behaviors. Analytical techniques will be on this understanding to develop systems that are
stakeholder needs.
TA I LO R E D TO T H E D O M A I N commonly used to explore huge system state more fault tolerant, secure, robust, resilient, and
The methods will be tailored to the domain and spaces to identify and eliminate undesirable adaptable will be a fundamental part of systems
scalable to project and system size and complex- system states. Techniques will be developed to engineering practices.
ity. Collaborative engineering across national correlate a diverse range of system parameters as
boundaries, enterprises, and disciplines will be the
norm. Systems engineering practice will deal with
systems in a dynamically changing and fully inter-
S C A L E D TO P R O J E C T S I Z E connected system of systems context. Architecture
design and analysis practices will enable integra-
PREDICTING AND M O N I TO R I N G CO M P L E X
tion of diverse stakeholder viewpoints to create
M O N I TO R I N G S YS T E M S YS T E M S F O R U N D E S I R A B L E
more evolvable systems. Design drivers such as H E A LT H S TAT E S
PREDICTING AND
cyber-security considerations and resilience will M O N I TO R I N G
be built into the solution from the beginning. CO M P L E X
Composable design methods will leverage reuse B E H AV I O R S
S C A L E D TO S YS T E M CO M P L E X I T Y
and validated patterns to configure and integrate
components into system solutions. Decision sup-
port methods will support more rapid analysis of a
large number of alternative designs, and optimiza-
tion of complex systems with multiple variables
and uncertainty. A virtual engineering environ-
ment will incorporate modeling, simulation, and
visualization to support all aspects of systems
engineering by enabling improved prediction and
analysis of complex emergent behaviors.
28 • The Future State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Future State • 29Leveraging Technology for Systems Engineering Tools Collaborative Engineering: Integrating Teams and Organizations Across All Boundaries
F R O M F R O M T O
Current systems engineering tools leverage computing and information technologies to some Today, systems engineering processes are In 2025 and beyond, systems engineering will
degree, and make heavy use of office applications for documenting system designs. The tools have often not well integrated with program man- be a key integrator role for collaborative enter-
limited integration with other engineering tools. agement and discipline-specific processes such prise engineering that span regions, cultures,
as hardware, software, test, manufacturing, organizations, disciplines, and life cycle phases.
operations, and logistics support. As an example, This will result in multi-disciplinary engineer-
T O program and product change processes require ing workflows and data being integrated to
time consuming and manual coordination support agile program planning, execution,
The systems engineering tools of 2025 will facilitate systems engineering practices as part of a fully inte-
among development teams and supply chain and monitoring. The collaboration will extend
grated engineering environment. Systems engineering tools will support high fidelity simulation, immersive
participants. across the supply chain so that customers,
technologies to support data visualization, semantic web technologies to support data integration, search,
primes, subcontractors, and suppliers are inte-
and reasoning, and communication technologies to support collaboration. Systems engineering tools will
grated throughout all phases of development.
benefit from internet-based connectivity and knowledge representation to readily exchange information
with related fields. Systems engineering tools will integrate with CAD/CAE/PLM environments, project man-
agement and workflow tools as part of a broader computer-aided engineering and enterprise management
environment. The systems engineer of the future will be highly skilled in the use of IT-enabled engineering
tools.
Cloud-based Advanced search
high performance query, and ana- Automated workflow,
computing lytical methods data integration, and
T E C H N O LO G Y supports high support reasoning CO L L A B O R AT I V E networked communi-
DRIVEN ENGINEERING cations are critical to
fidelity system about systems
S YS T E M S P R AC T I C E S
simulations agile program execu-
ENGINEERING
TO O L S tion, such as when
implementing
a change process.
Immersive Net-enabled
technologies tools support
support data collaboration
visualization
30 • The Future State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Future State • 31System Design In a System of Systems Context Architecting Systems to Address Multiple Stakeholder Viewpoints
F R O M T O F R O M
Limited technical guidance is available to The Internet of Things extends the SoS chal- Systems architecting is often ad-hoc and does not effectively integrate architectural concerns from
engineer complex systems of systems and as- lenge beyond interconnected computers and technical disciplines such as hardware, software, and security, nor does it fully integrate other stake-
sure qualities of service. Current emphasis is on users, to include increasingly interconnected holder concerns.
architecture frameworks and interoperability systems and devices that monitor and con-
standards. trol everything from household appliances to
automobiles. A diverse set of stakeholders will
T O
increasingly demand SoS to provide informa-
tion and services, leveraging value from the Systems architecting methods are well established and address broad stakeholder concerns associated
pieces. with increasingly complex systems. System architecture, design and analysis is integrated across disci-
plines, domains and life cycle phases to provide a single, consistent, unambiguous, system representation.
This ensures integrity and full traceability throughout the systems engineering process, and provides all
stakeholders with multiple system views to address a broad range of concerns.
System of systems engineering (SoSE) methods of service, continuous verification, and methods
will be used to characterize and evolve the SoS, for managing the integration of systems in a dy-
and include design for interoperability, analysis namic context with limited control.
and prediction of emergent behaviors and quality
The European Extremely Large Telescope
Courtesy of the European Southern Observatory.
Engineering
SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING PRACTICES Views
8.
Techniques for analyzing interactions
among independent systems and Construction
understanding emergent behaviors in Views
SoS must mature and become common-
place (e.g., agent based simulation). New
measures will be developed to charac-
I N T E G R AT I N G 7. 2.
S TA K E H O L D E R
terize the SoS and its quality character- VIEWS
istics. SoSE will employ new continuous
Science
verification methods as changes occur
Views
without central control. Design of ex-
periments is one such methodology for
optimizing a verification program with
many parameters and uncertainty. Re-
quirements management will evolve to
address even more diverse stakeholders,
“A SoS is an integration of a finite number of constituent systems Maintenance
in the face of uncertain organizational
which are independent and operable, and which are networked
Views
authority. Methods for establishing evo-
together for a period of time to achieve a certain higher goal.”
lutionary interoperability agreements
— Jamshidi, 2009
among SoS constituents will become
more robust.
5.
Management
Views
32 • The Future State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Future State • 33CO M P O S A B L E
DESIGN:
A KEY
TO
PRODUCTIVITY
Architecting and Design of Resilient Systems
F R O M T O
Fault detection, isolation, and recovery is a com- Architecting will incorporate design
mon practice when designing systems so they approaches for systems to perform their
can recover from failures, and/or off nominal intended function in the face of changing
performance and continue to operate. Fault circumstances or invalid assumptions.
Composable design methods in detection is based on a priori designation and
Reuse Ref: Engineering Resilient Space Systems, Final Report,
a virtual environment support characterization of off-nominal behavior. Keck Institute for Space Studies, Sept. 2013
Architecting Resilient Systems
rapid, agile and evolvable designs
of families of products. By combin-
ing formal models from a library of
• •• •
component, reference architecture, RESILIENT DESIGN OF AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
and other context models, different
system alternatives can be quickly The deployment of autonomous vehicles in transportation and delivery systems illustrates the need for
resiliency.
compared and probabilistically eval- Configure
uated. Composable design methods and Autonomous vehicles, especially those that operate in inhabited areas, must be designed to be robust to
provide a systematic approach for Compose operate in a wide range of environmental conditions, adaptive to unexpected conditions, and capable
of anticipating and recovering from failure conditions. In this example, the vehicle must be capable of
capturing, selectively reusing, and
assessing its current state and the state of its environment, and develop strategies to recover and return
integrating organizational intellec- to normal operations.
tual assets that includes reference
• •• •
architectures and component speci- The delivery system must be tolerant to invalid assumptions related to conditions such as:
fication, design, analysis, verification, • weather conditions • animate surface hazards
• air space congestion • human safety
manufacturing, and other life cycle
• inanimate surface hazards • failure modes
data.
Image courtesy of TEN TECH LLC
Composable design approaches Integrate
AIR DRONES
and
are industry best practices in IN FLIGHT
Verify
commercial electronics and
building design, and will be
adopted more broadly by the
systems engineering community
to drive cost effective solutions.
34 • The Future State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Future State • 35Cyber Security — Securing the System Decision Support
Leveraging Information and Analysis for Effective Decision Making
F R O M
Systems, personal and national security are increasingly being compromised due to the digitally intercon- F R O M T O
nected nature of our infrastructure. Engineers are hard pressed to keep up with the evolving nature and
Systems engineers explore a limited number of Systems engineers rapidly explore a broad
increasing sophistication of the threats to our cyber-physical systems. Cyber-security is often dealt with
design alternatives primarily based on determin- space of alternatives to maximize overall value,
only as an afterthought or not addressed at all.
istic models of performance, physical con- based on a comprehensive set of measures
straints, cost and risk. including performance, physical constraints,
T O
security, resilience, cost and risk.
Systems engineering routinely incorporates requirements to enhance systems and information security and
resiliency to cyber threats early and is able to verify the cyber defense capabilities over the full system life
cycle, based on an increasing body of strategies, tools and methods. Cyber security is a fundamental system
attribute that systems engineers understand and incorporate into designs using the following strategies: Decision support tools must comprehensively will be able to perform increasingly detailed trade
support each aspect of the decision making studies and analyses. Optimization tools will be
process. Through composition of reference used broadly, taking advantage of vast, inexpen-
• Continuous threat and system behavior • Supply-chain diligence components and scenarios, a much broader set sive cloud-computing resources to identify system
monitoring • Certification and accreditation standards of system architectures will be defined and con- alternatives that are most likely to maximize life
• Management of access rights and privileges • Formal methods for identification of sidered. A decision support dashboard will assist cycle value under uncertainty. Visualization tools
• Use of testbeds for assessing new threats in vulnerabilities the systems engineer in using sensitivity and will enable interactive analysis from many dif-
fielded systems uncertainty analysis to analyze a system design ferent stakeholder-specific viewpoints, allowing
from all relevant perspectives across the entire life decision makers to gain new insights, perform
cycle. While adding fidelity to models, adapting what-if analyses, and make decisions with confi-
modeling formalisms, and combining multiple dence.
C YB E R T H R E AT S concurrent modeling efforts, systems engineers
Addressing security concerns in modern systems and systems of systems requires understanding the boundary of
the system and analyzing what portions of that boundary need to be protected. This protection comes at a price,
often with systems engineering needing to trade performance for security. In context of the air travel system of
systems, physical and cyber security is traded for passenger convenience and cost.
DECISION MAK-
E R S W I L L H AV E
Understanding and characterizing threats, the system boundary, and trades among key performance parameters
MORE INFOR-
and security, is critical for achieving the right balance of security and overall capability. M AT I O N , A N D
OPTIONS FROM
W H I C H TO D R AW
Ticketing System Access Ground and Traffic Control Arrivals
CO N C LU S I O N S .
DEPARTURES
36 • The Future State Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering Copyright 2014 International Council on Systems Engineering The Future State • 37You can also read
