N OW REAL-TIME RESIDENTIAL MARKET INSIGHTS - Amazon AWS
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M AY E D I T I O N R AY W H I T E NOW R E A L-T I M E R E S I D E N T I A L MARKET INSIGHTS
M AY E D I T I O N
M AY E D I T I O N
04
MORE HOMEOWNERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE
OF STRONG SELLING CONDITIONS
06
SELLING IN THE CURRENT CLIMATE
08
IF I AM CONSIDERING SELLING,
WHY GO TO MARKET NOW?
10
WHY ARE WE SEEING
STRONG RESULTS NOW?
14
ABOUT RAY WHITE
04
M AY E D I T I O N
MORE HOMEOWNERS ARE
TA K I N G A D VA N TA G E O F
STRONG SELLING CONDITIONS
SUMMARY
• New listings now well above long-term average
• Some buyer metrics softened in April
Are there any signs of the market sellers have risen during this time, month ever, despite it being a short
activity starting to soften? these results show a market with month and it included the Easter and
While it’s dangerous to generalise continued momentum. Anzac Day breaks. However it was
across markets, we’ve seen a slight 20 per cent weaker than our March
change in buyer activity. Our metrics In April we helped almost 15,000 results. Only a year ago we wrote
for home loan pre-approvals, open people with their property ambitions $2.54 billion in sales in April.
home attendees, and active auction and we conducted 23,000 property
bidders have all fallen from the appraisals. Our final trading New listings added to the market are
incredible highs of February and figures came in at $6.88 billion for now well above long-term average
March. And when we look at the April 2021 across Australia and but strong demand is keeping overall
ratio of the number of new listings to New Zealand combined. Australia advertised stock levels low.
the number of sales per month, we alone produced $4.9 billion in The number of fresh listings added
dropped from 92 per cent to 80 per sales and once again all markets to the housing market has shown a
cent. There was also a 30 per cent lifted strongly again with no areas substantial lift relative to the past
fall in open home attendance in April of weakness or subdued activity. two years. We added 14 per cent of
from March, to 101,000 people. New South Wales / Australian Capital the 40,000 new residential property
It remains our duty to understand Territory was the strongest market listings to the market nationally over
each and every buyer’s dreams and in the group last month with $1.88 the four weeks in April. Some 8,213
remain engaged with them to help billion in unconditional sales and, up a new listing authorities were signed by
them achieve their ambitions. It whopping 160 per cent year on year a Ray White member in April across
needs to be remembered that all - which reflects the depths of the Australia and New Zealand, a rise of
of our metrics remain very strong pandemic in 2020. Our April results 11 per cent on the same month in
on a historical basis and when we were very strong compared to prior 2019. The rise in new listing numbers
consider that the expectations of our years, and in fact our second best signals an improvement in
“It remains our duty to understand each and every
buyer’s dreams and remain engaged with them to help
them achieve their ambitions. ”05
M AY E D I T I O N
seller confidence. More homeowners During the month of April we booked Six out of 10 home loan customers
are taking advantage of strong selling 2,875 auctions (an increase of 62 per in Australia now source their
conditions while it’s still a sellers’ cent year on year which shows you funding through a broker. And the
market. Our total advertised stock the depths of the pandemic) and this fact is they should have a better
levels are down 30 per cent on two April we accounted for 23 per cent experience with their application.
years ago at 15,000 listings across of the total auction markets. Auction Loan Market Executive Director
Australia. Such low total listing clearance rates have consistently Andrea McNaughton said turnaround
numbers, at a time when new listings held above 80 per cent now since the times from the majors were leaving
are above average, reflects the start of February and agents are also customers unable to compete at
strength of buyer demand, fueling still reporting strong private treaty auction or against cash-buyers in
the current rapid rate of absorption. sales. We had five registered bidders fast-moving private treaty campaigns.
Ray White’s real-time data tracks all at every Ray White auction and we The Loan Market Group’s April results
the various types of listings but new had active bidding on 91 per cent of and insights have never been more
properties which came to market in all auctions. crucial in cementing our confidence
the past month are the only metric in the direction of our real estate
to watch. There are some early signs Timing is everything in property and markets. Loan Market Group’s
that May is shaping up to be monster finance. One of the big themes of brokers lodged $2.4 billion in credit
month with big volumes predicted last month was consumers getting applications in April. And a staggering
and more than 3,500 auctions increasingly frustrated by the banks’ $2.1 billion was approved.
scheduled already. slow finance application process.
Australia - April 2021 at a glance
Sales New listings Online viewers
7,733 8,213 4.38M
+42% +54% +68%
Source: Ray White data. April 1-30, 2021 (compared to April 2020)06
M AY E D I T I O N
SELLING IN THE
C U R R E N T C L I M AT E
As the Australian real estate market How can we continue to market and thousands of Australian property
continues to go from strength to sell property in an efficient manner owners to take advantage of some
strength, many property owners as our communities adapt to living of the strongest selling conditions
have questions about what has and with ever changing restrictions seen in the country.
hasn’t changed in the way in which and lockdowns?
properties are being marketed in National housing values rose by 1.8
the current environment. Is now a The year 2021 has shown us that per cent in April. Although this rate
good time to market your property our Ray White network has adapted of growth has eased against March
for sale? to conditions and are safely and (2.8 per cent) according to CoreLogic
effectively paving the way for insights, every capital city across07
M AY E D I T I O N
SUMMARY
• National housing values increased by 1.8 per cent over April
• Every capital city recorded positive growth over April
the country recorded a lift in values uniquely placed to provide our We have successfully adapted our
over the month of April. Taking into clients with relevant and timely processes in order to safely fulfil
account the easing of growth over information and data to assess the needs of our customers in the
the month of April, national housing current market activity. current environment.
values have risen at a rapid rate
over the past three month with a As a family owned and led business The process of selling has changed
6.8 per cent increase. with 119 years of experience, we a little, yet our activity over the
know that we can deliver you the past few months as shown that
As Australasia’s largest real estate highest quality solutions in these processes are working
group, selling one in every nine today’s market. very effectively.
properties across Australia, we are
CoreLogic Monthly Change in Dwelling Values (April 2021)
Sydney 2.4% Canberra 1.9%
Brisbane 1.7% Hobart 1%
Melbourne 1.3% Adelaide 2%
Darwin 2.7% Perth 0.8%
445,963
Since 1 January we have had
a record number of buyers
check in across 15,789 listings08
M AY E D I T I O N
IF I AM CONSIDERING
S E L L I N G , W H Y G O TO
MARKET NOW?
SUMMARY
• Australian property market tips $8.1 trillion
• RBA maintains its supportive monetary policy position
The total value of Australia’s Housing markets strengthened a return to full employment in
residential real estate has soared further in April, with prices rising Australia and inflation consistent
past the $8 trillion mark for the in all major markets. with the target. It will not increase
first time ever, powered upwards by the cash rate until actual inflation is
rebounding prices but accompanied Housing credit growth has picked sustainably within the two to three
by an increasing likelihood regulatory up, with strong demand from owner- per cent target range. For this to
curbs may be coming. occupiers, especially first-home occur, the labour market will need to
buyers. Given the environment be tight enough to generate wages
CoreLogic estimates the total value of rising housing prices and low growth that is materially higher than
of residential real estate is now interest rates, the Reserve Bank of it is currently. This is unlikely to be
sitting at $8.1 trillion – four times Australia (RBA) is monitoring trends until 2024 at the earliest.
the size of gross domestic product in housing borrowing carefully to
and about $1 trillion more than ensure that lending standards are So for the first time in a century, our
the combined value of the ASX, maintained. The board is committed population has declined, thanks to
superannuation and commercial to maintaining highly supportive a low birth rate and the complete
real estate. monetary conditions to support absence of immigration. We’ve just
“What we do know is that
market fundamentals right now
are helping our clients who are
looking to sell.”09 M AY E D I T I O N emerged from the deepest recession intervene in credit lending criterias What we do know is that market in a century and unemployment or the RBA will raise rates which fundamentals right now are helping remains elevated. Demand for could unsettle confidence and derail our clients who are looking to sell. property should be in the doldrums. the economic recovery. Our data tells us that our sellers But it’s the total opposite. The RBA who choose to sell via the auction wants housing prices and stock As always we remind you the future method are rewarded with 12 markets to gradually rise. remains uncertain for many reasons: per cent higher price under the Asset price gains deliver the greater hammer than if they’d accepted a wealth and boost confidence, which • The international border prior offer. We cleared 80 per cent then feeds into improved spending remains shut. of all auction stock last month, and sustainable growth. with record numbers of registered The market keeps rising. So while • The number of properties for sale bidders. There’s a deep buyer pool the regulators remain on the has been steadily increasing over for sellers to take advantage of right sidelines, there truly has never 2021 which creates more choice now. Our question remains, been a better time to sell. To slow for buyers. “What are you waiting for?” down this market, the regulator may
10
M AY E D I T I O N
WHY ARE WE SEEING
S T R O N G R E S U LT S N O W ?
Real estate markets are driven by a buyers active in the marketplace) these conditions are favourable for
number of factors however the two play a significant role in establishing sellers. Conversely, when supply
basic fundamentals of supply market conditions that favour sellers is high and demand is low, these
(the number of total properties for or buyers. In general terms, when conditions are favourable for buyers.
sale) and demand (the number of supply is low and demand is high, So what are we seeing now?
+54%
The number of new ‘Listing Authorities’ over the month
of April has increased by 54 per cent compared to
April 2020.
This shows there is a huge volume of new stock coming
New listing authorities (Australia) onto the market now.
-9.9%
The volume of sales has recently outpaced new
listings creating less ‘Total available listings’ for
buyers to choose from. Stock levels at the moment
are favouring our sellers.
Total available listings (Australia)11
M AY E D I T I O N
Supply
Throughout April we saw 6,867 ‘New 115 per cent increase in sales over supply 9.9 per cent lower than the
Listings’ come onto the market which the month of April. Although the same period last year. With a total of
is a 22 per cent increase compared to increased number of sales have 15,040 available listings for buyers
the same period last year. exceeded the number of ‘New to choose from, these stock levels
Listings’, this large volume of sales continue to favour our sellers.
The significant increase in ‘New have been substantial enough to
Listings’ has been met with a keep the total available listings
Chart 1: 12k
# Listing Authorities / 28 days
Listing authorities 10k
8k
This chart shows that the
number of New Listings has 6k
increased by 22 per cent 4k
compared to this time last year.
2k
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Source: Ray White Listings Data
55k
Chart 2: 50k
Total available listings 45k
40k
# Listings OTM
This chart shows that the total 35k
30k
number of available listings
25k
for sale are down 9.9 per cent 20k
compared to this time last 15k
year and down 28.7 per cent 10k
5k
compared to 2019.
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Source: Ray White Listings Data12
M AY E D I T I O N
Demand
Our result for April was clearly millions views across our Ray White registered bidders per auction and of
driven by our strong volume of buyer websites. This is 45 per cent higher these bidders an average of 3.6 were
demand. Across all of our metrics, than this time last year. This has actively bidding (refer to Chart 4).
demand was up. resulted in over 51,913 enquiries
being sent, a volume which is 59 per Sellers who proceeded to auction
The initial buyer metric we take cent higher than April last year. were rewarded with 12.33 per cent
into consideration is the number of more under the hammer than the
buyers viewing properties online. The demand hasn’t stopped at highest offer prior.
online activity. Across our auctions in
Throughout April was saw 4.39 April, we recorded an average of six
80k
Chart 3:
70k
# Online Enquiries / 28 days
Online enquiries
60k
This chart compares the 50k
number of online enquiries 40k
made through Ray White 30k
websites from 2018, 2019 and 20k
2020. It shows online enquiries 10k
are 59 per cent above levels at
the same time last year. Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Source: Ray White Online Analytics
80k
Chart 4: 8 70k
# Online Enquiries / 28 days
Bidding by month 7 60k
6
The chart illustrates that 50k
# / 28 days
5
the average number of 40k
4
registered bidders per 30k
3
auction has reached 6.1 2
20k
throughout March 2021. 1 10k
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2021
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Source: Ray White EARS Auction Reporting System13
M AY E D I T I O N
The final consideration that we look Loan Market are seeing record • Interest rates are at record
at when measuring the volume of numbers of pre-approvals across lows. Importantly, the general
demand in the market and arguably the country with 107 per cent more consensus among economists is
that they will remain at these low
the most significant is the number than this time last year (refer to
levels for the foreseeable future.
of people obtaining pre-approvals Chart 5).
• Banks and lenders remain
for finance. Pre-approvals are a very supportive of lending for
key leading indicator to buyer As we continue to see strong numbers residential property.
confidence knowing they have across these buyer metrics, we often
the financial capacity to buy the ask ourselves why? What factors are
property. Our partners at contributing to buyer confidence?
Chart 5: 1,800
# Loan Pre-approvals / 28 days
Loan pre-approvals 1,600
1,400
This chart compares 1,200
the number of loan pre- 1,000
800
approvals submitted via
600
Loan Market brokers over
400
the past three years.
200
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
“This has resulted in over 51,913
enquiries being sent, a volume
which is 59 per cent higher than
the same period last year.”14
M AY E D I T I O N
A B O U T R AY W H I T E
Ray White is a fourth generation and Hong Kong. Last fiscal year, the depth of experience and the
family owned and led business. Ray White sold $44.22 billion, up breadth of Australasia’s largest real
It was established in 1902 in the 8.6 per cent year on year, worth estate group brings unrivalled value
small Queensland country town of of property. to our customers. A group that has
Crows Nest, and has grown into thrived through many periods of
Australasia’s most successful real Ray White today spans residential, volatility, and one that will provide
estate business, with more than commercial and rural property as the strongest level of support to
1,000 franchised offices across well as marine and other specialist enable its customers make the best
Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia businesses. Now more than ever, real estate decisions.
Ray White’s first auction house, ‘The Shed’ Crows Nest, Queensland.M AY E D I T I O N
raywhite.com loanmarket.com.au © Ray White Real Estate Partnership Australia 2021 Version 35 – April 2021
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