New studies by international organisations feature migration as a consequence of land, food and water scarcity
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Clingendael Alert
MAY 2018
New studies by international
organisations feature migration
as a consequence of land, food
Louise van Schaik, Tobias von Lossow & Étienne Béchard
and water scarcity
In the first months of 2018 three studies recently published by the World Bank (WB),
the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and the Intergovernmental Science-
Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) prominently addressed
the link between degradation of land, water stress and higher food prices with
migration. Whereas academic debate on the contribution of climate change and other
environmental stresses to migration is ongoing1, international organisations published
comprehensive reports underlining the need to act now. The FAO and WB shied away
from the more politically sensitive issue of irregular migration from Africa to Europe.
Neither do the reports quantify to what extent interventions in the sphere of land, food
and water could play a role in preventing migration and influence decisions to return.
1
In the first months of 2018 three studies Only the IPBES dares to make the link
published prominently have addressed with instability and conflict and the heated
the link between degradation of land, and very politicised debate on migration
water stress and higher food prices with to various Western countries. However, the
migration. The World Bank (WB), the Food fact that migration is explicitly addressed
and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and by all three reflects the attention some
the Intergovernmental Science-Policy of the most authoritative international
Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem institutions devote to the need to address
Services (IPBES) all point to the connection this topic that currently features so high on
between natural resource management and the international political agenda and is a
individuals’ decisions to migrate. key concern for the EU and other Western
nations. They understand the phenomenon
to be clearly linked to natural resource
management, a topic which may also
offer promising avenues for reducing
migration and alleviating the risk of conflict.
This Clingendael alert reviews these
1 See for an overview: Van Schaik, L. and Bakker, T. studies, points to their commonalities and
Climate-migration-security: Policy Brief Making the differences, the methods used and policy
most of a contested relationship, 2017. recommendations made.Clingendael Alert
The World Bank: Groundswell, still unequal as in scenario 1. The timeframe
Preparing for Internal Climate of this study extends those scenarios to 2050
by concluding that a constant increase in
Migration migrants will be seen in the coming decades.
This report assesses the potential impact The scenarios used involve policies and
of climate change on internal migration actions that can slow the onset of climate
and displacement. It argues that, by 2050, change impacts, consequently reducing the
143 million people will be considered number of people forced to migrate to an
climate migrants if no preventive policies “optimistic level” of 80%. To reach this target,
are implemented. Due to lower freshwater the report proposes that countries
availability, diminishing crop yield – cut their greenhouse gas emissions as
productivity and constantly rising sea soon as possible,
levels coupled with storm surges, internal – integrate the inevitability of climate
pressure on already vulnerable countries will migration into sensible development
have major effects on climate-dependent planning and targeted investments,
economic sectors, urban infrastructure and – invest in research to enhance the
social support systems. On the ground, it understanding of the dynamics of internal
can be expected that a large proportion of migration,
the rural population will migrate to urban – shape policies to create a more diversified
areas, exceeding the cities’ ability to absorb and climate-resilient economy,
such an influx and consequently increasing – acknowledge climate migration in
instability in those often overburdened areas. national plans and policies and
Indeed, the urban population is projected – target pockets of poverty to diminish
to quadruple from 100 million in 2010 to the impact of climate change.
350 million in 2050 under the most optimistic
predictions and to exceed 450 million under The study is based on a model which looks
the most pessimistic predictions. into climatic, livelihood, demographic,
migration and development patterns in
The report looks at the potential outcome three regions. This makes it possible to
in three regions collectively representing build robust projections of internal climate
55% of the population in developing migration over large areas. Although quite
countries that are likely to be at the core of exhaustive in its chosen areas of study, this
such population shifts: Sub-Saharan Africa, report does not delve too much into the
South Asia and Latin America. The analysis is politically more sensitive issue of external
based on a model which uses “demographic, migration or the potential spill-over effect
socioeconomic and climate impact data at a of migration to instability. These issues
14 square kilometre grid cell level” to predict are more difficult to forecast by modelling,
the likely displacement of the population but the chosen focus also avoids political
within countries. In response to the uneasi controversy around the WB, which allegedly
ness caused by looking at migration over the has a donor-driven agenda. It also means
next 30 years, this analysis considers three that this study is politically less relevant
potential climate and development scenarios: to these donors, since it does not address
(1) a business-as-usual scenario in which concerns over new waves of migrants
greenhouse gas emissions and unequal coming to their countries. In terms of
development are high, which would lead to policies, the reduction of greenhouse
2.8% of the population migrating based on gas emissions features most prominently,
the trends shown by the current available whereas emphasising that this is still a
data; (2) a more comprehensive development possibility may slow down the need for other
in which greenhouse gas emissions stay action to address migration resulting from
high but development is more balanced a rapidly warming world.
towards inequality, urbanisation rates and
population growth; (3) a more climate- With its programmes, the WB can help target
centric approach in which greenhouse gas better governance of natural resources,
emissions are reduced while development is including land restoration, irrigation and
2Clingendael Alert
water management as well as increased and It is striking that policies to increase the
climate-sensitive food production. It can amount of available water or manage
make sure that when implementing such it better, for instance by means of
projects due account is taken of tensions desalinisation, irrigation or better waste
between various groups in society, in water treatment, are not mentioned.
other words making its climate adaptation
interventions more conflict-sensitive and The report acknowledges the existence of
indeed instrumental to the agenda of its the “environmental migrant” as a new reality,
main financers. In that way it can make an emphasising heat and water stress areas as
immense contribution to concerns over its cause. It stops short of explaining how
migration, whether internal within countries other communities seem less inclined to
or to the countries that finance the WB. move from their home even under duress.
The report also fails to explain how people
in wet areas, who suffer from flooding and
FAO: “Water stress and massive rainfall, are also prone to migrate.
human migration: a global, In the same line of thought, this paper
makes little differentiation between internal
georeferenced review of and external migration. On the one hand,
empirical research such a differentiation could be helpful,
since policies have to consider the different
This report is an assessment of the preferences and perspectives of states
linkage between water-stressed areas involved in transnational migration. On the
and migration. The Food and Agricultural other hand, internal migration can also be
Organisation (FAO) of the UN, with the disruptive to national actors and therefore
empirical backing of 184 peer-reviewed be the justified focus of policies.
research papers, assumes a correlation
between the two phenomena. While
acknowledging that migration is at its IPBES: Thematic assessment
core part of a multi-faceted situation of land degradation and
which includes high temperature, lack of
economic opportunities, unemployment restoration
and endemic violence, it stresses that the
literature does come close to a consensus This report was approved at the 6th session
that water stress can encourage migration. of the IPBES Plenary, by the 129 State
Water insecurity, especially when coupled Members, in Medellín, Colombia. IPBES has
with a high level of temperature, causing been labelled as the IPCC for biodiversity
water evaporation, undermines the (IPCC is the review body for climate science).
livelihood systems of those affected and This specific review targets the issue of land
induces migration. degradation, a topic rising rapidly on the
international agenda. IPBES compiled the
Indeed, migration is responsive to some multidisciplinary knowledge base of more
patterns of sudden change which alter the than 3,000 scientific, government, indigenous
future prospects of an individual. Policies and local knowledge sources published in
addressing these challenges should include: the last three years. The report was adopted
– Public investment in rural agriculture, by representatives of governments after a
– Investment in livelihood diversification, process of extensive peer-review consisting
– Investment in social welfare to ensure of more than 7,300 comments from over
the affected population can cope and 200 external reviewers.
adapt to internal and external migration,
– Adaptation to and incentivisation of The IPBES report concludes that the well-
the use of sustainable agricultural being of 3.2 billion people around the world
technologies, is affected by land degradation, which is a
– Encouraging policies to avoid population systemic phenomenon that threatens food
displacement that can lead to the spread and water security, now and in the future.
of adverse effects. Climate change accelerates this process.
3Clingendael Alert
Land degradation is explicitly acknowledged areas.”3 Consequently, more land restoration
as a major cause of insecurity. projects would reduce the effect on human
security and thereby decrease risks of
Exponential population growth, the conflict and irregular migration.
expansion of agricultural activities and
crop production, unsustainable agricultural The report suggests adopting existing tools,
and forestry practices, urban expansion practices and techniques and bolstering
and the extractive industry all play a role positive policies that promote sustainable
in land degradation. Often, short-term exploitation of land and land-based
gains are favoured over long-term and resources. The conclusion is that successful
more sustainable gains. Land degradation practices of land restoration/preservation
exacerbates soil acidification and salinisation, currently exist and can be efficiently
reduces crop yield, water quantity and implemented to halt or reverse land
quality, precipitates desertification and degradation. Nevertheless, little is said about
intensifies the release of methane and which practices can have the greatest impact
carbon emissions, thereby contributing to on reducing migration and conflict risk.
climate change.
Since land degradation negatively affects Commonalities and differences
the livelihood of the population concerned,
people living in these areas might opt The three studies all point to the opportunity
to migrate out of the degraded areas. of using interventions in the sphere of
Migration in turn might exacerbate land natural resources to reduce the scope
degradation by increasing the pressure on of migration flows. They do not compare
the area they move to, creating a vicious such interventions with repressive
circle that will worsen the phenomenon of security interventions or a more generic
degradation as well as inciting conflicts. focus on good governance and economic
IPBES believes land degradation is likely to development, but rather point to the many
force 50 to 700 million people to migrate co-benefits of combining environmental,
by 2050. The problem is that this figure is social and economic agendas, a way
probably based on research by Norman of thinking which is embraced by the
Meyer 2, which was heavily criticised Sustainable Development Goals. Whereas
afterwards and the range is quite wide. the universality of such a holistic approach
is advocated in the 2030 Agenda for
The report recommends timely action Sustainable Development, these reports
in order to avoid, reduce and reverse tend to focus on migration as a problem of
degradation through an effective monitoring developing countries. They avoid stating
strategy and verification system, adequate too explicitly that it may be in the interest of
data collection processes and an increase donor countries to support interventions to
in public awareness. bolster the quality and quantity of land, water
and food security, since this may avoid new
Taken as a whole, those actions could streams of migrants fleeing because they can
mitigate adverse security effects. The report no longer live from and on the land where
states: “Land degradation acts in concert they were born.
with other socioeconomic stressors to result
in increased local or regional violent conflict In the reports little is said about what could
and out-migration from severely degraded motivate migrants to go back. The modelling
and statistical analysis does not tell us much
2 See for an overview on the debate: Van Schaik, L.
and Bakker, T. Climate-migration-security: Policy 3 IPBES, Summary for policymakers of the thematic
Brief Making the most of a contested relationship, assessment report on land degradation and
2017. The full IPBES review is not yet available and restoration of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy
from the Summary for Policy Makers it is not clear Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services,
on which figures this estimate is based. Bonn, 2018, p. 18.
4Clingendael Alert
Organisation World Bank FAO IPBES
Focus Water & Migration Water stress & human Land degradation
migration
Main By 2050, if no preventive Water stress encourages Land degradation, coupled
conclusions on policies are implemented, migration. with climate change, is likely
migration 143 million people will be to force 50 to 700 million
considered climate migrants. people to migrate by 2050.
Main Internal migration means Migration, when poorly Migration due to land
conclusions that a massive influx of managed, can lead to degradation might create
on stability/ urban migration is expected. unbearable pressure on some pressure on the area migrants
conflicts This could lead to an areas in terms of strained move to, creating a vicious
overburdening of urban local resources, diminishing circle that will incite conflicts
capabilities as well as an water availability and raised with the local population.
increase in instability. tensions with the host
community.
Methodology Literature review & modelling Literature review of empirical Literature review
research
Recommended Drastic reduction of The path forward should Timely action to avoid, reduce
actions greenhouse gas emissions. be public investment in and reverse degradation
rural agriculture, livelihood through effective monitoring
diversification, social welfare, strategy, verification systems,
agricultural technologies to adequate data collection
ensure the affected population and public awareness could
can cope and adapt to mitigate the effect of land
internal and external migration degradation.
and avoiding population
displacement that may cause
adverse effects to spread.
about what would make them return. In this Viviane; Ober, Kayly; Schewe, Jacob;
respect other research methods might be Adamo, Susana; McCusker, Brent;
advisable, notably interviews with migrants Heuser, Silke; Midgley, Amelia. World
or a larger-scale survey. To convince donors, Bank, Washington, DC, United States.
more (quantitative) information on the
impact of natural resource investments on IPBES (2018): Summary for policymakers
reducing migration and conflict risk might of the thematic assessment report on
be useful. These studies can be considered land degradation and restoration of
a call for action, but a close reading the Intergovernmental Science-Policy
illustrates that extensive policy-relevant Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem
information on the relationship between Services. R. Scholes, L. Montanarella,
natural resources on the one hand and A. Brainich, N. Barger, B. ten Brink,
migration and security on the other hand M. Cantele, B. Erasmus, J. Fisher, T.
is still not yet available. More research and Gardner, T. G. Holland, F. Kohler, J. S.
analysis is needed to sustain the call for Kotiaho, G. Von Maltitz, G. Nangendo, R.
action, look into the full potential of natural Pandit, J. Parrotta, M. D. Potts, S. Prince,
resources interventions in comparison to M. Sankaran and L. Willemen (eds.).
other policy options and scale up funding. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany.
FAO (2018): Water stress and human
References migration: a global, georeferenced review
of empirical research, in Land & Water
World Bank (2018): Groundswell: Preparing Discussion Paper 11. D. J. Wrathall,
for Internal Climate Migration. Rigaud, J. Van Den Hoek, A. Walters and
Kanta Kumari; de Sherbinin, Alex; Jones, A. Devenish. Oregon State University,
Bryan; Bergmann, Jonas; Clement, Rome, Italy.
5About the Clingendael Institute Clingendael – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations – is a leading think tank and academy on international affairs. Through our analyses, training and public debate we aim to inspire and equip governments, businesses, and civil society in order to contribute to a secure, sustainable and just world. www.clingendael.org @clingendaelorg info@clingendael.org The Clingendael Institute +31 70 324 53 84 The Clingendael Institute About the authors Dr Louise van Schaik is Head of Sustainability and Climate Change and Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute. Tobias von Lossow is Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute. Étienne Béchard is research assistant at the Planetary Security Initiative.
You can also read
