NIMBLE WISDOM SA QUARTERLY - Q1 2021 - Sesfikile Capital

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NIMBLE WISDOM SA QUARTERLY - Q1 2021 - Sesfikile Capital
NIMBLE WISDOM
SA QUARTERLY
Q1 2021
NIMBLE WISDOM SA QUARTERLY - Q1 2021 - Sesfikile Capital
2    Sesfikile Capital

    QUARTERLY REVIEW

    SECTOR PERFORMANCE
    Listed property set a solid foundation for the year as the ALPI and SAPY delivered returns of 8.1% and 6.4%
    respectively for the first quarter of 2021. Property comfortably outpaced bonds, which were negative for the
    period (-6.7%). Despite generally having a reasonably strong correlation to bonds in the past, a breakdown in the
    relationship between the two asset classes has seen property still lag bond returns over the past 18 months. The
    local long bond spiked from 9.06% to 9.83% driven almost exclusively by the weakness in global bond markets
    and the US in particular which saw yields almost double (albeit from a low base) from 0.92% to 1.75% as the
    expectations of both higher GDP and inflation were buoyed by the imminent reopening. Equities (+13.1%) followed
    the risk-on reopening trade higher, despite a bit of cooling off in the gold stocks.

    January got off to a slow start (-3.0%) due to both profit taking after a strong fourth quarter of 2020 and fresh
    uncertainty as we found ourselves in the midst of the second wave of the pandemic. Renewed optimism in global
    growth and a sharp decline in local Covid-19 cases spurred the sector on in both February and March. Results
    reported by REITs reflected a weak operating environment, but also a situation where management teams have
    worked tirelessly in securing their balance sheets and fighting tooth and nail for every cent. Companies on a whole,
    surpassed the underwhelming expectations. It has not been a case of strong fundamentals pushing the market,
    but rather an appreciation that the market was overly pessimistic which resulted in the value gap narrowing.
    Equities (+13.1%) followed the risk-on reopening trade higher with a particularly strong showing by the retailers.

    TABLE 01

    ASSET CLASS TOTAL RETURN TO MARCH 2021

                                                                                            Jan    Feb     Mar    Q1 / YTD

     SA Listed Property Index                                                              -3.2%   8.6%    1.2%      6.4%

     All Property Index                                                                    -3.0%   9.7%    1.5%       8.1%

     Equites                                                                               5.2%    5.9%    1.6%      13.1%

     Bonds                                                                                 0.7%    0.1%   -2.5%      -1.7%

     Cash                                                                                  0.3%    0.3%   0.3%       0.9%

    Source: Bloomberg

                                                        Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 3

STOCK PERFORMANCE
GRAPH 01

Q1/YTD:2021 STOCK/SECTOR TOTAL RETURN DISTRIBUTION (%)

Source: Bloomberg

Stock performances generally reflected a risk-on outlook, but the trend was not quite as pronounced as in recent
quarters. Texton (+65.3%) and RDI REIT (+37.0%) topped the list with the latter receiving an offer 30% above the
price it was trading at when the announcement was made, although still a 15% discount to its latest EPRA NAV;
while the former has seen prominent individuals pick up material stakes of the company with an expectation that
it will be taken private. Emira’s (+35.9%) results presented no surprises, with the only potential catalyst being the
pickup in comparable US retail stock performances as compared to their investment in Ranier, which comprises
roughly 12% of their total assets. The bounce was more likely due to a ‘return-to-mean’ in the rating of the stock
as it relatively underperformed in the latter months of 2020. Dipula B (+35.5%), admittedly very illiquid, rallied on
the back of the cautionary held over the company, with the prospect of corporate action and the ability of B-share
to control the outcome. And lastly Hammerson (+34.4%) continued its rally through year-end despite a barrage
of negative news, including further lockdowns in France and immense pressure on rentals. Hammerson appears
to be perfectly placed for the risk on trade, like so many of the shopping mall operating peers who have rallied
aggressively off their lows as economies threaten to reopen.

Despite the prevailing cautionary hanging over the company and the Dipula B-share being so strong, Dipula A
(-11.2%) retreated after the company announced that it was not going to pay a dividend (due to liquidity concerns),
which effectively means that the A-share will forego the income to the benefit of the B-share as the company
de-gears. Sirius (-5.8%) saw profit taking from a stock that delivered a positive return through Covid-19 and
has temporarily fallen out of favour as investors look for value over growth. Germany also moved in and out of
lockdowns through the period, which is likely to have created some negative sentiment, but did little to materially
NIMBLE WISDOM SA QUARTERLY - Q1 2021 - Sesfikile Capital
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    disrupt operations. Fortress B (-3.7%) was negatively impacted by its geared exposure to NEPI-Rockcastle
    earnings being revised below market consensus, but in truth, the price doubled in the previous quarter and some
    profit taking was also a likely explanation for the negative return. Finally EPP (-2.4%), which should have followed
    the risk on trades, the likes of what we saw in Hammerson, failed to gain any real momentum as the heavy burden
    of debt still weighs on the stock price. While management have explicitly stated that an orderly deleveraging is
    their main priority, the timeline to execute is long and the investment universe is yet to fully buy into the plan.

    • Listed property started on the back foot (-3%), underperforming equity and bonds in January, which delivered
      a positive 5.2% and 0.7% respectively. The relative underperformance in the absence of any material news
      flow makes us think that it was really just some profit taking on the back of the strong c.+34% November/
      December rally. Coming out of the December break, company news was sparse. However, Redefine and
      Hyprop announced their respective strategies to retain capital and attend to their cash flow concerns. Hyprop
      proceeded to declare a dividend, offering a deeply discounted scrip alternative that achieved an 82% take up.
      Redefine’s Board decided not to declare a dividend, citing the risk it could breach the liquidity requirement in
      terms of the Companies Act; while this does not result in them relinquishing their REIT status they would incur
      a material tax liability should they not pay any distribution by the time of their tax submission later in the year.
      Our dividend expectations include the increasing frequency in which companies will withhold as much cash as
      possible as a result of fully geared balance sheets and uncertainty of property valuations ahead.

    • February saw the markets follow the ‘now familiar’ risk-on/reflation trade as bonds weakened, while equity and
      property rose. Higher bond yields are typically negative for property stocks in the short term, however their
      stark underperformance through 2020 combined with the sheer volume of capital chasing risk assets buoyed
      the sector once again. Even within the sector this pattern was evident as stocks with higher gearing and retail
      exposure generally topped the list. Pure offshore stocks also benefitted from the rand weakness towards the
      end of the month. RDI REIT was the best performer for the month, up 39.7% after the board had recommended
      the acceptance of a cash offer from Starwood Capital. Capital & Counties also rallied (26% higher) as the
      accelerated roll out of vaccines in the UK led to optimism of an earlier reopening. Defensive counters Sirius and
      Stor-age bore the brunt of the rotation into value stocks, falling 0.3% each.

      The reopening trade had also brought along with it an expectation of higher inflation and with that, weakness in
      the bond market. Listed property has historically been inversely correlated to bond yields, a relationship which
      seemed to have had been put on hold as property clawed back both relative and absolute losses.

    • March began where February left off, in full stride, pushing total returns over 4% into the middle of the month,
      before it retreated somewhat to a still respectable 1.5% higher for the period. The perceived value proposition of
      property has gained much traction through the year and has justified the recent rally, but as long-term interest
      rates (both local and foreign) continue to push higher in unison with property stock prices, the pricing is no
      longer quite as attractive. This coupled by threats of a South African third wave post the Easter break resulted
      in some profit taking.

                                                       Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 5

Hammerson PLC was the sector’s best performing stock during the month with a total return of 27%. While results
confirmed the dire state of the UK retail property sector, the market has begun to expect a trough in valuations
and further disposals. The stock received further impetus as the vaccine rollout in the UK will lead to an earlier
than expected reopening. Attacq returned 21% as it successfully executed on the sale of MSP shares and issued
a cautionary announcement relating to the sale of a large asset – both boosting confidence in the company’s de-
gearing strategy. Lighthouse achieved an 18% total return on the back of price appreciation in Hammerson, which
is 57% of its total assets. The sector’s laggards were Redefine (-10%) and Capital & Counties (-4%), both of which
had a very strong February and were subject to some profit taking.

                                                                                   Lighthouse’s Forum Coimbra, a 50
                                                                                  000sqm mall in Coimbra, Portugal.
                                                                             Lockdowns across Western Europe mean
                                                                                        malls remain under pressure.
NIMBLE WISDOM SA QUARTERLY - Q1 2021 - Sesfikile Capital
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    NEWSWORTHY
    • Hyprop Investsments announced the sale of Atterbury Value Mart for R1.12bn as part of its plans to lower its
      debt burden. The price was 4.6% below the asset’s most recent market valuation. The sale of Ikeja Mall hit a
      speedbump after the buyers had funding issues. The disposal is being renegotiated at present.

    • Vukile extended the Merev PUT option for 3 years. While there was no change in the strike price (¤6.50 per
      share), the extension allows Vukile additional time to reduce its LTV prior to expiry. Vukile has guaranteed a 6%
      yield on Castellana’s dividend.

    • Attacq Limited sold a stake in MAS Real Estate to PKM Development for c. R388m. This comes less than
      three months after Attacq sold a R500m stake in MAS to a group owned by the Oppenheimer family. Attacq
      currently owns 10.9% of MAS.

    • The board of RDI REIT accepted a cash offer from Starwood Capital for all the shares not currently held.
      The price of 121.35p is a significant 33% premium to its previous day closing price and 15% discount to its last
      reported EPRA NAV. The offer is still subject to shareholder approval.

    • Redefine Properties and Dipula Income Fund resolved not to pay a dividend in respect of their 2020 financials
      years. The board has determined that the company failed the liquidity test, a pre-requisite in the Companies
      Act for paying dividends.

    • Equites sold two UK distribution warehouses to real estate funds managed by Blackstone for £43.4m (about
      R883.9m), representing a 4.79% yield and 6% premium to Equites’ book value. The sale proceeds would be re-
      invested into distribution warehouse development by the Equites/Newlands joint venture.

    • Jackie van Niekerk was appointed CEO to Attacq, replacing Melt Hamman who resigned late last year.

    • 360 Capital REIT has acquired a 9.18% stake in Irongate Group for approximately A$78.6 million. The company
      increased its stake subsequently, and currently own 15.18% of Irongate.

    • Resilient REIT announced that it is in discussions with the PIC to dispose of a portfolio of assets, including Brits
      Mall, Jabulani Mall and Highveld Mall. It is envisaged that Resilient will continue to asset manage these assets
      for a period after disposal.

    • Deutsche Konsum Reit, which invests in convenience retail properties in the central and regional areas of
      Germany, completed its secondary listing on the JSE’s main board. The company has a primary listing on the
      Frankfurt Stock Exchange and the Berlin Stock Exchange.

                                                       Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 7

• In March, Spear REIT announced that it had exercised its right to terminate the lease with Marriott at 15 on
  Orange in Cape Town. Following this, Spear signed a lease with Capital Apartments and Hotels to lease the
  premise at a fixed rental as opposed to a variable lease with Marriott.”

                                                                                               15 On Orange, Cape Town

• Ster-Kinekor Theatres entered voluntary business rescue to rehabilitate the company as it continues to suffer
  due to the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown.

• Debenhams will disappear from British high streets after the sale of its brand to Boohoo. The deal marks a
  changing of the guard in UK retail prompted by a radical acceleration towards online during the pandemic.

• Next plc saw profits for the last year drop by more than half after the lockdown closure of high street stores.
  Nonetheless, it raised its profit forecast for the current year and hailed soaring online sales - over eight weeks
  from the start of February, online sales were more than 60% ahead of the same period two years ago.
NIMBLE WISDOM SA QUARTERLY - Q1 2021 - Sesfikile Capital
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    PROPERTY FUNDAMENTALS

    SOUTH AFRICA
    The latest results season have highlighted the following key trends in the listed property sector:

    Rental collections have returned to near 100% levels. In some cases, collections are above 100% as landlords
    reduce arrears. Discounts continue to be provided for the restaurant, fast food and entertainment sectors but have
    abated for other retail, office and industrial tenants. Anecdotal evidence does however show that collections in
    January was lower than December in retail due to the second lockdown, albeit to a far lesser extent than we saw
    earlier in the year. It should be noted however, that despite a normalisation in collection rates, renewal rates are
    coming under pressure, especially in offices where the opportunity to access rental relief was harder (as compared
    to retail) in the initial stages of the pandemic.

    CHART 02

    RENTAL COLLECTION

    Source: Company Data

    Valuation changes have been mild relative to the first-round adjustments. Similar to the first round, second

    round adjustments have been driven by changes primarily to income (lower base rentals, falling escalation rates

    and higher vacancy rate assumptions) rather than capitalisation rates. Based on discussions with management

    teams, the outlook for valuation hinges on the pace of the vaccine rollout, further lockdowns and stabilisation in

    the economy. At present, expectations are for another mild (0-5%) write-down in the next 6 to 12 months. The

    biggest risk to this number would be a sizable shift in global rates, however most central banks are still more

    focused on supporting growth at this stage than combatting expected inflation.

                                                     Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 9

CHART 03

VALUATION CHANGES

Source: Company data

Despite valuation write-downs, efforts to manage LTV growth has been encouraging. While there has been a

modest increase in LTVs, the fear of covenant breaches has subsided and expectations are that further efforts

to reduce LTV coupled with a moderating outlook for valuation write-downs will see LTV ratios stabilise and

potentially fall over the medium term. There is also a greater understanding from the market as to the broad

range of tools these companies have in which to avoid covenant breaches as well as the rational and practical

approaches taken by the banks to avoid such situations.

CHART 04

LTV VS. COVENANTS

Source: Company data, Sesfikile Analysis
10     Sesfikile Capital

        The pace of de-gearing intensified but will ultimately come at a cost to earnings. Across the board, companies

        have been selling assets in a challenging transactional environment and reducing pay-out ratios. The message

        from all companies is that REIT status remains a priority and thus a minimum 75% is being paid. In Redefine and

        Dipula’s case, failure to meet its liquidity test requirement has resulted in no dividend paid whilst maintaining the

        REIT status. In most instances, disposals at current valuations will result in earnings dilution, but protect balance

        sheets and dispute current valuations of certain stocks that imply default. Some of the more recent actions taken

        are detailed on page 6.

        Refinancing risk remains low. Most REITs have indicated that banks have not requested to reduce exposure to

        listed property. In fact, most companies have reported that banks’ appetite has improved. Margins have however

        been increasing (by c.20bps) over the last year, but base rates (3m JIBAR) remains low, still some 350bps below

        pre-Covid levels. Where refinancing is a concern is where companies have mismatched leverage on foreign assets,

        thereby accessing nominally lower rates. Normalising the gearing on these assets will come at a cost.

        Mid-market regional malls are underperforming while non-urban centres, rural centres and luxury retail is

        outperforming. Trading statistics from the last quarter have shown a segmented market performance, with non-

        urban and rural markets benefitting from social grants, family allowances as well as booming agricultural and

        mining sectors. Convenience retail continues to benefit from behavioural changes where consumers prefer shorter,

        more focussed shopping. A lack of offshore travel and pent-up demand amongst high-net-worth individuals has

        seen luxury spending in the likes of Sandton City and V&A Waterfront also surge. Mid-tier regional malls however,

        remain under pressure; the draw from entertainment is currently not a feature, while there is the innate desire to

        avoid closed environments.

RDI REIT’s 20 Dunstans Hill office in London.
RDI REIT may be de-listed if investors accept
the offer from Starwood Capital.

                                                        Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 11

CHART 05

TRADING DENSITY GROWTH - H2 2020

Source: Company data

CHART 06

RETAIL RENTAL REVERSIONS - H2 2020

Source: Company data

While retail vacancies have increased, demand from mid-market tenants in strong locations have increased.
Tenants such as Studio 88, Bathu, Webbers and Refinery have been opportunistic in increasing their footprint,
especially in non-urban and rural markets. Demand from certain larger national retailers such as Shoprite (with their
Checkers FreshX store) and Truworths (with their lower market offering dubbed “Primark”) are also expanding.
12    Sesfikile Capital

     CHART 07

     RETAIL VACANCY RATE

     Source: Company data

     Office vacancies are elevated and sub-letting in the market is rife. According to SAPOA’s Office Vacancy Survey,
     the level of unlet space in the market increased by 50bps during the last quarter of 2020 to 13.3%. While P-grade
     vacancies declined by 60bps to 11.3%, it remains higher than A-grade vacancies of 10.8% due to speculative
     development activity. This has led to market rentals continuing to slide. The level of rental reversions seen in the
     last reporting period was -11.4%. Anecdotal research shows discounting of rentals is as much as 50% on gross
     rentals. In other cases, the Work-from-home trend has seen the likes of PwC in Waterfall request subletting of
     some of its space.

     CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
     Due to the second wave in parts of Europe, a number of countries have had, and currently have lockdowns with
     various degrees of restrictions. In Poland, all non-essential stores were closed in November and January and
     restrictions were eased to include only restaurants and entertainment in December and February 2021. Restrictions
     in Romania are mainly around curfews, limits on the size of gatherings, and closing time for stores, but stores
     remained open. As a result, turnover growth especially in Poland, was impacted by the timing of lockdowns. In
     NEPI Rockcastle’s portfolio, turnover growth dipped to -40% in December but averaged c. -20% for the second
     half of the year.

                                                      Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 13

CHART 08

RETAIL SALES GROWTH

Source: Bloomberg

The underlying reasons for investing in CEE retail space remains intact. Growth in income levels are expected to
outpace Western Europe and, coupled with an undersupply of space, trading density growth is expected to remain
strong in the medium term.

CHART 08

SHOPPING CENTRE DENSITY (M2/1000 POPULATION)

Source: Bloomberg
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     UK
     The UK became the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer vaccine for emergency use in early December.
     Currently, it has administered more Covid-19 vaccine first doses per 100 people than any other nation of comparable
     population size. More than 31 million people in the UK have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine
     and the resultant drop in infections is apparent. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the pace of vaccinations
     means Britain can expect a major relaxation of restrictions in early April.

     CHART 09

     BEST AND WORST SUPPLIED

     The United Kingdom has pre-ordered enough vaccines for five doses per person.

     Source: Nature

     Shopping centres continue to see significant valuation write-downs as evidenced by Hammerson’s recent results.
     Values fell by 21% overall, including -36% in UK flagships, -15% in France and -17.5% in Ireland. UK shopping centres
     have now fallen in value by 54% since the peak and France -27%. Rental value decline in the UK shopping centres
     was -10% and footfall fell 53% in UK and 33% in France.

                                                        Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 15

CHART 10

HAMMERSON UK SHOPPING CENTRES: RETAIL SALES, RENTAL VALUE & FOOTFALL INDICES

Source: Company datat

As vacancies increase on the back of the lockdowns, so too will the pressure on rental growth. The number of
stores closed in 2020 was the highest since the GFC, and 2021 is shaping up to show a similar number. John Lewis
earlier this year announced the closure of 8 department stores, citing the shift to online sales and the need to cut
costs.

CHART 11

STORES CLOSED

Source: BRC
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        Next PLC’s results highlight this pressure in rentals, where it said in 2021 and 2022, it expected rentals to decline by
        58% and 47% respectively on expiry. While this is not necessarily reflective of the entire retail market, it shows the
        bargaining power amongst the stronger anchor retailers in UK malls. Furthermore, it has signed an average lease
        term of 3 years compared to the previous norms of 5 and 10-years.

        Capital & Counties also experienced a sharp decline in property valuations (-27%) in 2020 but is protected
        somewhat by its superior balance sheet and the appeal of its Central London portfolio. While the vaccine rollout
        bodes well for a pickup in activity, the lack of tourists (likely to be for some time) and a lacklustre return to the
        office means spending in the precinct will be limited.

Hammerson’s Brent Cross Shopping
Centre. Hammerson reported a 40%
rental collection rate for Q2 2021.

                                                       Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 17

ECONOMICS
• In the SARB’s latest quarterly bulletin, the SA economy showed a contraction of -7.0% in 2020 from 0.2% in
  2019, 0.8% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2017. The effect was that GDP per capita fell by -8.2% last year compared to -1.2%
  in 2019 and -0.6% in 2018.

• The Reserve Bank’s leading business cycle indicator rose for the eighth consecutive month in January, to a
  record high of 117.5, from 115.1 in December.

• In its latest April review, the IMF revised the forecast growth for the SA economy in 2021 upwards to 3.1%,
  compared with a forecast of 2.8% in January and one of 3.0% made in October last year. For 2022, the forecast
  has been revised upwards quite sharply, to 2.0%, from the 1.4% forecast made in January and the 1.5% forecast
  in October last year. Key issues outlined as holding back potential economic recovery in South Africa are the
  slow pace at which vaccinations stand to be delivered and the likelihood of extra load-shedding throughout the
  course of the year.

• The National Executive Committee (NEC) decreed that party officials charged with criminal offences (especially
  those on corruption) would have to step aside within 30 days. This can be interpreted as suggesting that
  President Cyril Ramaphosa is gaining support within the party.

• The Absa Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose for the third consecutive month in March to 57.4, from 53.0 in
  February. March marked the eighth consecutive month that the index remained above the 50 pointing towards
  expansionary conditions. It also came in higher than expected with consensus forecasts having expected a
  decline to 52.3.

• The February trade surplus surged to R28.96bn, from a surplus of R12.42bn in January. This implies that there
  is less dependence on continuing large inflows of foreign capital, providing support to the ZAR.

• Retail sales contracted by -3.5% y/y in January compared with -1.2% y/y in December. January was the 10th
  consecutive month that retail sales contracted. The January outcome was down on consensus forecasts of -1.5%
  y/y. Consumers remain under significant pressure due to job losses and salary cuts. Lower-income consumers
  have been assisted by various relief packages provided by the government such as the TERS grant.
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     BONDS
     US bond markets led a global retreat in government debt since January as investors worry that huge amounts of
     government spending combined with monetary stimulus will lead to rising inflation. The US 10y treasury touched
     its highest point since the beginning of the coronavirus, peaking at 1.77%.

     European government debt yields were also dragged higher by the move in the US, with the German 10-year Bund
     yields reaching -0.28%. UK 10-year gilt yields reached 0.8%, up from 0.74% at the start of the year.

     A broad Bloomberg Barclays index of debt issued by developed market governments around the world has fallen
     5% since the start of the year on a total return basis.

     In South Africa, bond yields climbed by 77bps to 9.8%. Bonds had in fact strengthened until mid-February as
     higher tax revenues led to some optimism after the Budget speech. However, the rising tide in global bonds
     ultimately pushed SA bond yields higher over the first quarter.

     CHART 12

     GLOBAL BOND YIELDS (%)

     Source: Bloomberg

                                                       Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 19

OUTLOOK
One could argue that the level of pessimism has subsided from its peaks as the vaccine roll-out has shown us
that there is an end to the pandemic; similarly, President Ramaphosa appears to have navigated the ship steadily
through the choppy waters and may actually be on the ascendancy and and has garnished the strength to
implement his reforms and revitalise the economy on a sustainable basis.

Fundamentally, sectoral performance is mixed in that retail has shown relative improvement, office gives us
cause for concern and logistics continues to hold up better than the rest. But ultimately, it is a tough grind out
of an ailing economy. However, demand is showing signs of ‘green shoots’. Economic activity is starting to show
as morning traffic builds up and shopping centres once again start to fill up. Retailers are cautiously looking for
more space and assets (albeit smaller cheque sizes) are trading. Office demand is the one area which is pulling
back our desire for optimism as current GDP levels and business confidence are not conducive to growth in
demand and the ability for the slack in space to be taken up before there is any discussion on rental growth.
While the impact on demand across most underlying asset classes is clear, it is well-worth pointing out that
supply is also significantly lower than we have seen in recent years. Objectively the outlook is marginally better
than our views last quarter, but admittedly off a very low base.

Considering valuations, the reading is nearly an exact inverse of what we spelt out concerning fundamentals.
Where last quarter, (and several months prior) the sector was screening deep value, the recent rally combined
with a steadily increasing bond yield have all but eroded the strong value proposition. The sector is quite easily
capable of delivering annualised mid-teen returns, so there is most definitely a case for holding a position in a
balanced portfolio, however the blue-sky expectations on total returns must be moderated to a more normalised
level. The one area of concern to focus on in the short-term is the long bond yield, both locally and abroad. The
US 10y treasury yield has literally doubled over the last quarter and locally we have seen our long bond trough
below 9% and push beyond 9.8%. Although the sector was able to shrug off this move as the relative pricing
to bonds had created a material buffer through property’s recent underperformance, any further momentum
in yields (without the commensurate earnings growth) could lower return expectations in the next 12 months.
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     OUR TEAM

              Evan Jankelowitz, CFA®                                             Mohamed Kalla, CFA®                                           Kundayi Munzara, CFA®
             Director | Portfolio Manager                                      Director | Portfolio Manager                                   Director | Portfolio Manager
               BCom (Hons). Investment                                       BCom. Investment Management                                  Bsc. (Hons) Property Studies (UCT),
              Management (UJ), Chartered                                     (UP) Chartered Financial Analyst                               PLD (HBS), Chartered Financial
                   Financial Analyst                                                 16 years experience                                                Analyst
                   17 years experience                                                                                                              15 years experience

                   Naeen Tilly, CFA®                                                     Anil Ramjee                                                   Nalika Pema
                     Head of Research                                                Global REIT Analyst                                      Business Development Head
                BAcc (WITS), CA(SA),                                         Masters Property Studies (UCT),                                        BCom. Finance and
              Chartered Financial Analyst                                    BEconSci, MCom EconSci (Wits)                                          Economics (UKZN)
                   14 years experience                                                8 years experience                                            16 years experience

                  Tintswalo Hlebela                                                Kehilwe Mnyamana                                               Nolwazi Maphalala
              Investment Operations Head
                                                                                   Portfolio Administrator                                      Team PA | Office Manager
              BSc. Mathematical Sciences
                                                                                Bcom. Economics (UCT),                                     Dip. Public Relations Management
                 (Wits), Bcom (Hons)
                                                                              BSc. Applied Mathematics and                                               (TUT)
                 Economics (UNISA)
                                                                                    Statistics (UNISA)                                              5 years experience
                   14 years experience
                                                                                      4 years experience

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Nimble Wisdom SA Quarterly Q1 2021 21
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