November 2020 - #ETYS2020 - National Grid ...
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November 2020 Summary of the Electricity Ten Year Statement #ETYS2020
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Contents Our ambition 5
About the ETYS 6
Key messages 7
Improving our analysis 11
Future developments 12
Stakeholder feedback 14
How can I get involved? 15
3
We are the Electricity System Operator (ESO)
Electricity underpins our modern lives and National
Grid ESO exists to make sure everyone gets access
to a safe, reliable and affordable supply.
We bring energy to life.
What is the Electricity Ten Year
Statement (ETYS)?
The ETYS is an annual publication with the ESO’s view of future
transmission requirements and the capability of Great Britain’s
National Electricity Transmission System (NETS) for the next ten years.
This is a significant part of our annual network planning process.
This document summarises the main findings from our analysis for the
ETYS and the other areas being developed that you can get involved
in. More detailed information is available online.
4Our ambition
To enable the transformation to a sustainable energy
system and ensure the delivery of reliable, affordable
energy for all consumers, by 2025, we aim to have:
An electricity system A whole system Competition The ESO is
that can operate strategy that supports everywhere a trusted
carbon free net zero by 2050 partner
This means we need to fundamentally change how our system is designed to operate.
We are working with the industry to integrate newer technologies across the system
and increase demand-side participation.
5About the ETYS
The ETYS sits at the heart of our network planning process. Using the data from our Once we know what the network requirements are, we invite stakeholders to propose solutions
Future Energy Scenarios (FES), we identify the points on the transmission network where that will be needed to meet these requirements. These proposals are then assessed through our
more network transfer capacity is needed to help us continue to deliver electricity reliably. Network Options Assessment (NOA) process, where the most economic and efficient solution is
given a recommendation to proceed, and others told to hold or stop.
FES July 2020 ETYS November 2020 NOA January 2021
6Key messages
1 - Power flows will become more P08
variable with higher peaks
2 - Growing need for network P09
reinforcements in a number of regions
3 - Network constraints expected to P10
rise if no action is taken
7Key message 1
Power flows will become more variable with higher peaks.
Over the next 10 years, wind generation is
Dounreay
Connagil
Spittal
Thurso South Dounreay
Connagil
Spittal
Thurso South Dounreay
Connagil
Spittal
Thurso South
forecasted to increase in the north of the
country. The demand is predominantly located
Mybster Mybster Mybster
Beatrice Beatrice Beatrice
Cassley Cassley Cassley
Stornoway Dunbeath Stornoway Dunbeath Stornoway Dunbeath
Lairg Lairg Lairg
Brora Brora Brora
Harris Harris Harris
Shin Loch Buidhe Shin Loch Buidhe Shin Loch Buidhe
Caithness Caithness Caithness
in the south of the country leading to high
Moray Moray Moray
HVDC HVDC HVDC
Grudie Bridge Mossford Grudie Bridge Mossford Grudie Bridge Mossford
Fyrish Alness Fyrish Alness Fyrish Alness
Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Corriemoillie Fraserburgh
Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff
Ardmore St. Fergus Ardmore St. Fergus Ardmore St. Fergus
Keith Keith Keith
Deanie Strichen Deanie Strichen Deanie Strichen
Culligran Dingwall Culligran Dingwall Culligran Dingwall
Aigas Kilmorack Nairn Aigas Kilmorack Nairn Aigas Kilmorack Nairn
Inverness Blackhillock Inverness Blackhillock Inverness Blackhillock
Dunvegan Peterhead Dunvegan Peterhead Dunvegan Peterhead
Beauly Hywind Beauly Hywind Beauly Hywind
north-south power flows with high variability.
Fasnakyle Knocknagael Dyce Fasnakyle Knocknagael Dyce Fasnakyle Knocknagael Dyce
Persley Persley Persley
Kintore Kintore Kintore
Glen Glen Glen
Broadford Tomatin Willowdale Broadford Tomatin Willowdale Broadford Tomatin Willowdale
Morrison Morrison Morrison
Low Wind Moderate Wind High Wind
Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill
ClayhillsAberdeen ClayhillsAberdeen ClayhillsAberdeen
Fort Augustus Boat of Fort Augustus Boat of Fort Augustus Boat of
Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler
Glendoe Redmoss Glendoe Redmoss Glendoe Redmoss
Invergarry Invergarry Invergarry
Fetteresso Fetteresso Fetteresso
Melgarve Melgarve Melgarve
Kinlochleven Fiddes Kinlochleven Fiddes Kinlochleven Fiddes
Tummel Tummel Tummel
Kincardine Kincardine Kincardine
Fort William Errochty Power Station Fort William Errochty Power Station Fort William Errochty Power Station
Errochty Brechen Errochty Brechen Errochty Brechen
Rannoch Rannoch Rannoch
Clunie Clunie Clunie
Tummel Bridge Tealing Tummel Bridge Tealing Tummel Bridge Tealing
Dudhope Arbroath Dudhope Arbroath Dudhope Arbroath
Interconnectors connect us to other European
Lochay Lochay Lochay
Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie
Taynuilt Killin Charleston Taynuilt Killin Charleston Taynuilt Killin Charleston
Cruachan Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope
Burghmuir Glenagnes Burghmuir Glenagnes Burghmuir Glenagnes
St. Fillans St. Fillans St. Fillans
Nant Clachan Inverarnan Nant Clachan Inverarnan Nant Clachan Inverarnan
SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRI C Cupar SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRI C Cupar SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRI C Cupar
Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION
Glenrothes Glenrothes Glenrothes
Leven Leven Leven
Devonside Westfield Devonside Westfield Devonside Westfield
Redhouse Redhouse Redhouse
Whistlefield Kincardine Whistlefield Kincardine Whistlefield Kincardine
Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston
markets and either import or export power.
Denny Mossmorran Denny Mossmorran Denny Mossmorran
Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing
Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenzie Dunbar Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenzie Dunbar Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenzie Dunbar
Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd. Portobelllo Torness Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd. Portobelllo Torness Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd. Portobelllo Torness
Valley Strathleven Windyhill Bainsford Gorgie
Broxburn
Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Bainsford Gorgie
Broxburn
Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Bainsford Gorgie
Broxburn
Crystal Rig
Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse
Bathgate Kaimes Bathgate Kaimes Bathgate Kaimes
Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago
Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton
Moor Moor Moor
Crossaig Newarthill Crossaig Newarthill Crossaig Newarthill
Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill
NorthHunterston Strathaven Black Law Extension Dunlaw Extension Berwick Marshall Meadows
NorthHunterston Strathaven Black Law Extension Dunlaw Extension Berwick Marshall Meadows
NorthHunterston Strathaven Black Law Extension Dunlaw Extension Berwick Marshall Meadows
East Black Law East Black Law East Black Law
Busby Busby Busby
Kilwinning Whitelee
East Wishaw Kilwinning Whitelee
East Wishaw Kilwinning Whitelee
East Wishaw
Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride
Pow
Saltcoats Town Whitelee ExtnSouth Linnmill SP TRANSMISSION LTD Saltcoats Town Whitelee ExtnSouth Linnmill SP TRANSMISSION LTD Saltcoats Town Whitelee ExtnSouth Linnmill SP TRANSMISSION LTD
Eccles Eccles Eccles
Meadowhead Meadowhead Meadowhead
Carradale Kilmarnock Coalburn Galashiels Carradale Kilmarnock Coalburn Galashiels Carradale Kilmarnock Coalburn Galashiels
As these flows change, it can require further
South South South
Ayr Clyde (North) Ayr Clyde (North) Ayr Clyde (North)
Coylton Coylton Coylton
Clyde (South) Hawick Clyde (South) Hawick Clyde (South) Hawick
New Cumnock Elvanfoot New Cumnock Elvanfoot New Cumnock Elvanfoot
Maybole Moffat Maybole Moffat Maybole Moffat
Black Hill Glenglass Black Hill Glenglass Black Hill Glenglass
Auchenwynd Auchenwynd Auchenwynd
Dun Hill Harestanes Dun Hill Harestanes Dun Hill Harestanes
Hadyard Hadyard Hadyard
Carsfad Ewe Hill Carsfad Ewe Hill Carsfad Ewe Hill
er
To Northern Ireland Kendoon Blackcraig To Northern Ireland Kendoon Blackcraig To Northern Ireland Kendoon Blackcraig
Markhill Blyth Markhill Blyth Markhill Blyth
Glenlee Gretna Glenlee Gretna Glenlee Gretna
Arecleoch Kilgallioch Dumfries Ecclefechan Arecleoch Kilgallioch Dumfries Ecclefechan Arecleoch Kilgallioch Dumfries Ecclefechan
Pow
transmission capability on the system especially
Auchencrosh Fourstones Auchencrosh Fourstones Auchencrosh Fourstones
Newton Earlstoun Newton Earlstoun Newton Earlstoun
Stewart Tynemouth Stewart Tynemouth Stewart Tynemouth
Chapelcross Harker South Shields Chapelcross Harker South Shields Chapelcross Harker South Shields
Stella West West Boldon Stella West West Boldon Stella West West Boldon
Glenluce Tongland Glenluce Tongland Glenluce Tongland
Offerton Offerton Offerton
Hawthorn Pit Hawthorn Pit Hawthorn Pit
Hartmoor Hartmoor Hartmoor
Spennymoor Hartlepool Spennymoor Hartlepool Spennymoor Hartlepool
Saltholme Tod Point Teesside Saltholme Tod Point Teesside Saltholme Tod Point Teesside
Norton Norton Norton
when interconnectors export to Europe during
Robin Rigg Robin Rigg Robin Rigg
Greystones Greystones Greystones
Grangetown Grangetown Grangetown
Lackenby Lackenby Lackenby
er
Western Hutton
Western Hutton
Western Hutton
HVDC Walney HVDC Walney HVDC Walney
Extension Extension Extension
Link Ormonde Link Ormonde Link Ormonde
significant wind output.
Walney I & II Quernmore Walney I & II Quernmore Walney I & II Quernmore
Heysham Osbaldwick Heysham Osbaldwick Heysham Osbaldwick
Knaresborough Knaresborough Knaresborough
West of Duddon Sands Middleton Thornton West of Duddon Sands Middleton Thornton West of Duddon Sands Middleton Thornton
Barrow Bradford Barrow Bradford Barrow Bradford
West Kirkstall Skelton Poppleton Creyke Beck Westermost Rough West Kirkstall Skelton Poppleton Creyke Beck Westermost Rough West Kirkstall Skelton Poppleton Creyke Beck Westermost Rough
Stanah Padiham Grange Monk Stanah Padiham Grange Monk Stanah Padiham Grange Monk
Fryston Saltend Fryston Saltend Fryston Saltend
North Hedon North Hedon North Hedon
Penwortham Elland Drax Humber Gateway Penwortham Elland Drax Humber Gateway Penwortham Elland Drax Humber Gateway
Saltend South Saltend South Saltend South
Ferrybridge Eggborough Ferrybridge Eggborough Ferrybridge Eggborough
Rochdale Rochdale Rochdale
To Ireland Humber Refinery
To Ireland Humber Refinery
To Ireland Humber Refinery
Washway Keadby Washway Keadby Washway Keadby
Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Thorpe Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Thorpe Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Thorpe
Lister Killingholme Triton Knoll Lister Killingholme Triton Knoll Lister Killingholme Triton Knoll
Burbo West Marsh South Burbo West Marsh South Burbo West Marsh South
Rainhill Carrington Rainhill Carrington Rainhill Carrington
Bank I&II Drive Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West Bank I&II Drive Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West Bank I&II Drive Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West
Wylfa Gwynt y Mor Kirkby South Stocksbridge Pitsmoor Aldwarke
West Bank Wylfa Gwynt y Mor Kirkby South Stocksbridge Pitsmoor Aldwarke
West Bank Wylfa Gwynt y Mor Kirkby South Stocksbridge Pitsmoor Aldwarke
West Bank
Manchester Winco Bank Burton Manchester Winco Bank Burton Manchester Winco Bank Burton
Birkenhead Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Birkenhead Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Birkenhead Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft
Rhyl Flats Fiddlers Daines Sheffield City Rhyl Flats Fiddlers Daines Sheffield City Rhyl Flats Fiddlers Daines Sheffield City
North Hoyle Rocksavage North Hoyle Rocksavage North Hoyle Rocksavage
Ferry Race Bank Ferry Race Bank Ferry Race Bank
Flintshire Jordanthorpe Brinsworth Cottam Dudgeon Flintshire Jordanthorpe Brinsworth Cottam Dudgeon Flintshire Jordanthorpe Brinsworth Cottam Dudgeon
Pow
Frodsham Norton Lees Frodsham Norton Lees Frodsham Norton Lees
Bodelwyddan Bridge Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Bodelwyddan Bridge Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Bodelwyddan Bridge Macclesfield Inner Dowsing
Pentir Capenhurst Lincs Pentir Capenhurst Lincs Pentir Capenhurst Lincs
Chesterfield Chesterfield Chesterfield
Dinorwig
Connah’s Quay High
Dinorwig
Connah’s Quay High
Dinorwig
Connah’s Quay High
Marnham Marnham Marnham
Lynn Sheringham Shoal Lynn Sheringham Shoal Lynn Sheringham Shoal
Staythorpe Staythorpe Staythorpe
Legacy Legacy Legacy
Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph
Bicker Fen Bicker Fen Bicker Fen
Pow
Ratcliffe Ratcliffe Ratcliffe
Trawsfynydd B17 Willington on Soar
Trawsfynydd B17 Willington on Soar
Trawsfynydd B17 Willington on Soar
Rugeley Drakelow Walpole Rugeley Drakelow Walpole Rugeley Drakelow Walpole
er
Spalding Spalding Spalding
North Scroby sands North Scroby sands North Scroby sands
Necton Necton Necton
Thermal Plant
Ironbridge Sutton Norwich Main Ironbridge Sutton Norwich Main Ironbridge Sutton Norwich Main
Ryhall Ryhall Ryhall
er
Bushbury Bridge Bushbury Bridge Bushbury Bridge
Willenhall Willenhall Willenhall
Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby
Hams Hall Hams Hall Hams Hall
Ocker Hill Ocker Hill Ocker Hill
Nechells Coventry Nechells Coventry Nechells Coventry
Oldbury Oldbury Oldbury
Kitwell Berkswell Kitwell Berkswell Kitwell Berkswell
Burwell Main Sizewell Burwell Main Sizewell Burwell Main Sizewell
Feckenham Grendon Feckenham Grendon Feckenham Grendon
Bishops Wood Eaton Bishops Wood Eaton Bishops Wood Eaton
Socon Socon Socon
Patford Bramford Patford Bramford Patford Bramford
Bridge Bridge Bridge
Greater Gabbard Greater Gabbard Greater Gabbard
Sundon Sundon Sundon
East Claydon Pelham Braintree East Claydon Pelham Braintree East Claydon Pelham Braintree
Wymondley Wymondley Wymondley
Leighton Leighton Leighton
Rassau Buzzard Bulls Lodge Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper) Rassau Buzzard Bulls Lodge Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper) Rassau Buzzard Bulls Lodge Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper)
Walham Walham Walham
B14 B14 B14
Rye House Rye House Rye House
Rhigos Imperial Brimsdown Rhigos Imperial Brimsdown Rhigos Imperial Brimsdown
Park Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II Park Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II Park Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II
Swansea North
Cowley Watford Elstree Highbury
London Array
To Netherlands Swansea North
Cowley Watford Elstree Highbury
London Array
To Netherlands Swansea North
Cowley Watford Elstree Highbury
London Array
To Netherlands
Pembroke Amersham Main Hackney
Rayleigh Main
BritNed Pembroke Amersham Main Hackney
Rayleigh Main
BritNed Pembroke Amersham Main Hackney
Rayleigh Main
BritNed
Baglan Bay Cilfynydd Culham Mill Hill Tottenham Redbridge Baglan Bay Cilfynydd Culham Mill Hill Tottenham Redbridge Baglan Bay Cilfynydd Culham Mill Hill Tottenham Redbridge
Upper Boat Minety Didcot Warley Upper Boat Minety Didcot Warley Upper Boat Minety Didcot Warley
Margam Uskmouth Iron Acton Willesden Margam Uskmouth Iron Acton Willesden Margam Uskmouth Iron Acton Willesden
Iver Coryton Iver Coryton Iver Coryton
Pyle Whitson Kensal Green West Ham
Barking Pyle Whitson Kensal Green West Ham
Barking Pyle Whitson Kensal Green West Ham
Barking
Ealing Pudding Ealing Pudding Ealing Pudding
St Johns City Rd Mill Tilbury Grain St Johns City Rd Mill Tilbury Grain St Johns City Rd Mill Tilbury Grain
Wood Hurst West Thurrock
Kentish Flats Thanet Wood Hurst West Thurrock
Kentish Flats Thanet Wood Hurst West Thurrock
Kentish Flats Thanet
Seabank Wimbledon
Seabank Wimbledon
Seabank Wimbledon
Tremorfa Laleham New Cross
Littlebrook
Northfleet Kingsnorth Tremorfa Laleham New Cross
Northfleet Kingsnorth Tremorfa Laleham New Cross
Northfleet Kingsnorth
East Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill Littlebrook
East Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill Littlebrook
East Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill
Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Chessington
Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Chessington
Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Chessington
East Bramley West Weybridge Beddington Rowdown
Richborough To Belgium East Bramley West Weybridge Beddington Rowdown
Richborough To Belgium East Bramley West Weybridge Beddington Rowdown
Richborough To Belgium
Fleet Canterbury NEMO Fleet Canterbury NEMO Fleet Canterbury NEMO
North North North
Hinkley Point Sellindge Hinkley Point Sellindge Hinkley Point Sellindge
West Sellindge West Sellindge West Sellindge
Bridgwater Bridgwater Bridgwater
Alverdiscott Alverdiscott Alverdiscott
Bolney Bolney Bolney
Taunton Nursling Taunton Nursling Taunton Nursling
Dungeness Dungeness Dungeness
Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield
Chilling Chilling Chilling
Axminster Axminster Axminster
Fawley Botley Wood Fawley Botley Wood Fawley Botley Wood
Exeter Exeter Exeter
Interconnectors Interconnectors Interconnectors
Chickerell
To France Chickerell
To France Chickerell
To France
IFA IFA IFA
Rampion Rampion Rampion
Langage Abham Langage Abham Langage Abham
Indian Queens Landulph Indian Queens Landulph Indian Queens Landulph
To France To France To France
IFA2 IFA2 IFA2
Click to jump to enlarged diagram
8Key message 2
B0
B0 In the move to net zero over the next decade,
the GB Electricity Transmission System will face
growing needs in a number of regions.
Dounreay Thurso South
Connagil
Spittal
Mybster
Stornoway
Cassley
Dunbeath
Beatrice
B1
Lairg B1a
Brora
B2a
Harris
Shin Loch Buidhe
Caithness
Moray
HVDC
Grudie Bridge Mossford
Fyrish Alness
Corriemoillie Fraserburgh
Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus
Ardmore
Keith
Deanie Strichen
Culligran Dingwall
Aigas Kilmorack Nairn
Inverness Blackhillock
Dunvegan Peterhead
Beauly Hywind
Fasnakyle
Glen
Knocknagael
Tomatin
Kintore
Dyce
Persley
Willowdale
B2a
Broadford Morrison
Increasing quantities of wind Additional 4GW of renewables expected
Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill
1
ClayhillsAberdeen
Fort Augustus Boat of
Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler
Glendoe Redmoss
Invergarry
Fetteresso
Melgarve
generation connected across the compared to last year’s scenarios
Kinlochleven Fiddes
Tummel
B2
Kincardine
Fort William Errochty Power Station
Errochty Brechen
Rannoch
Clunie
B4
Tummel Bridge Tealing
Scottish networks more than doubling resulting in a total of 18GW of required
Dudhope Arbroath
Lochay Milton of Craigie
Cashlie Lyndhurst
Taynuilt Killin Charleston
Cruachan Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope
Burghmuir Glenagnes
B1 Nant Clachan Inverarnan
St. Fillans
B5
the north-to-south transfer. transfer by 2040.
SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRI C Cupar
Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION
B1a Whistlefield
Devonside
Glenrothes
Westfield
Redhouse
Leven
Kincardine
Dunfemline
Stirling Glenniston
Denny Mossmorran
Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing
Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenzie Dunbar
B2
Dunoon Spango Helensburgh
Cumbernald Telford Rd. Portobelllo Torness
B6
Valley Strathleven Windyhill Bainsford Gorgie
Broxburn
Crystal Rig
Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse
Bathgate Kaimes
Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago
Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton
Moor
Crossaig Newarthill
Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill
NorthHunterston Strathaven Black Law Extension Dunlaw Extension Berwick Marshall Meadows
East Black Law
Busby
Wishaw
B3b
Kilwinning East
Whitelee
Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride
Saltcoats Town Whitelee ExtnSouth Linnmill SP TRANSMISSION LTD
Eccles
Meadowhead
Carradale Kilmarnock Coalburn Galashiels
South
A potential growth of over 6GW in
Ayr Clyde (North)
Coylton
Clyde (South) Hawick
B3b New Cumnock Elvanfoot
Maybole Moffat
Black Hill Glenglass
Auchenwynd
Dun Hill Harestanes
Hadyard
B4
low-carbon generation and interconnectors
Carsfad Ewe Hill
To Northern Ireland Kendoon Blackcraig
Markhill Blyth
Gretna
25% increase in expected requirements
Glenlee
Arecleoch Kilgallioch Dumfries Ecclefechan
Auchencrosh Fourstones
Newton Earlstoun
Stewart Tynemouth
Chapelcross Harker South Shields
Stella West
B5
in the North of England combined with high
West Boldon
Glenluce Tongland
Offerton
Hawthorn Pit
compared to last year’s scenarios.
Hartmoor
Spennymoor Hartlepool
B7
Saltholme Tod Point Teesside
Scottish generation, will increase transfer
Norton
Robin Rigg
B6
Greystones
Grangetown
Lackenby
B7
2
B7a
B11 Western
HVDC
Link
Walney
Extension
Ormonde
Hutton
requirements in the Midlands.
B16 Walney I & II Quernmore
Heysham
Middleton
Knaresborough
Osbaldwick
West of Duddon Sands
Barrow Bradford Thornton Hornsea
Kirkstall Skelton Poppleton Westermost Rough
B7a
West Creyke Beck
Stanah Padiham Grange Monk
Fryston Saltend
Hedon
B11
North
NW4
Penwortham Elland Drax Humber Gateway
B16
Saltend South
B8
Ferrybridge Eggborough
Rochdale
NW3 EC1
To Ireland
10GW increase expected in generation
Washway Keadby Humber Refinery
Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Thorpe
Lister Killingholme Triton Knoll
NW2
Burbo West Marsh South
B9
Rainhill Carrington
Bank I&II Drive Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West
17% increase in expected generation
Wylfa Gwynt y Mor Kirkby South Stocksbridge Pitsmoor Aldwarke
West Bank
EC3
Manchester Winco Bank Burton
NW1
Birkenhead Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft
Rhyl Flats Fiddlers Daines Sheffield City
North Hoyle Rocksavage
coming from offshore wind on the east
Ferry Race Bank
Flintshire Jordanthorpe Brinsworth Cottam Dudgeon
Frodsham Norton Lees
Bodelwyddan Bridge Macclesfield Inner Dowsing
NW1
Pentir Capenhurst Lincs
EC5
Chesterfield
Connah’s Quay High
between Two Degrees (FES 2019) and
Dinorwig
Marnham
Staythorpe
EC3 Lynn Sheringham Shoal
NW2 Legacy
coast connecting to East Anglia, which will
Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph Bicker Fen
Ratcliffe
NW3 B17 Willington on Soar
Leading the Way (FES 2020).
Trawsfynydd
Rugeley Drakelow Walpole
East Anglia
Spalding
NW4
increase the need for reinforcement here.
North Scroby sands
Sutton Necton Norwich Main
Ironbridge Ryhall
Bushbury Bridge
Shrewsbury Penn
Willenhall
Bustleholm
Hams Hall
Enderby EC5
Ocker Hill
Nechells Coventry
Oldbury
Kitwell Berkswell
L E1
B8
Burwell Main Sizewell
B15
Feckenham Grendon
Eaton
3
Bishops Wood
B9
Socon
Patford
SC3
Bramford
Bridge
Greater Gabbard
B12
New interconnectors with Europe will London and Southern England need
Sundon
East Claydon Pelham Braintree
Wymondley
SC2
Leighton
Rassau Buzzard Bulls Lodge Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper)
Walham
B14
Rye House
Rhigos Imperial Brimsdown
Park Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II
To Netherlands
place increased requirements on the more reinforcement to enable future
Cowley
SW1
Swansea North Watford Elstree Highbury
London Array
Pembroke Amersham Main Hackney
Rayleigh Main
BritNed
Baglan Bay Cilfynydd Culham Mill Hill Tottenham Redbridge Warley
Upper Boat Uskmouth Minety Didcot Willesden
Margam Iron Acton Coryton
Whitson Iver
SC1
Kensal Green West Ham
Pyle Ealing
Barking
Pudding
St Johns City Rd Mill Tilbury Grain
Wood Hurst West Thurrock
Kentish Flats Thanet
Seabank Wimbledon
Laleham New Cross
SW1
Northfleet
Tremorfa
transmission network. interconnection.
Kingsnorth
Littlebrook
East Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill
Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Chessington
East Bramley West Weybridge Beddington Rowdown
Richborough To Belgium
NEMO
B10
Fleet Canterbury
North
4
Hinkley Point Sellindge
B13 SC1.5
West Sellindge
Bridgwater
Alverdiscott
Bolney
Taunton Nursling
Dungeness
Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield
Chilling
SC1
Axminster
SC3
Fawley Botley Wood
Exeter
Chickerell
To France
B15
IFA
Rampion
Langage Abham B10
B12
SC1.5 L E1 SC2
Indian Queens Landulph
B13 To France
IFA2
9Key message 3
Constraint costs are expected to increase due to high flows across
the transmission boundaries if no action is taken over the next ten years.
Constraint
Costs B0 B1 B1a B2 B4 B5 B6 B7a B8 B9 SC1.5 B15 SC1 SC2 SC3 LE1 EC5
The ETYS describes the network capability by looking at the
2021
maximum secured power transfer between two regions or
2022 the power transfer across a boundary.
2023
To operate the system safely, we must make sure that
2024
the power flow across the boundary does not exceed the
2025 capability of the system between the two regions. To prevent
2026 this, we have to take actions to constrain generation -
2027
which can incur significant costs.
2028 The heatmap shows that if no reinforcements are made to the
system (i.e. the system is the same as it is today, over the next
2029 1 2 4 3
2030
10 years), the network boundaries defined in the ETYS would
lead to incurring significant network constraint costs due to
the high flows from the increased generation capacity.
Lower Constraint Costs Higher Constraint Costs
10Improving our analysis
Our new analysis techniques enable us to look at
more detailed year-round thermal requirements.
The power transfer capability across the network throughout the year is constantly Defining the network capability is complex. The overlap in the graph shows that a particular
changing and we are always trying to maximize the capability of the transmission network. level of power transfer across a boundary could be either “acceptable” or “unacceptable”
As the ESO, we securely operate the transmission network. which is dependent on the generation and demand scenario. Our new analysis techniques
allow us to model this complexity and calculate the likelihood and impact of different
network conditions throughout the course of a year.
Occurrences, hrs per season
Acceptable
Unacceptable
We can also assess solutions across year-round conditions to help identify an optimal
solution which extends our traditional analysis and opens the opportunity for wider range
of network and non-network solutions.
Transfer
opportunity
We will be learning from these techniques and investigating how to integrate the analysis
within the ETYS and NOA processes and how it could evolve to capture both thermal and
voltage issues.
Transfer
risk
Power Transfer Requirements, MW
The graph shows the number of scenarios throughout the year for a particular power transfer about the Probabilistic
level across the boundary showing how many scenarios had no overloads, so acceptable (blue), Approach in Chapter 4
and how many scenarios had at least 1 asset overloading which is unacceptable (orange). of the ETYS
11Future developments
The future development of the ETYS and NOA processes will be shaped by the NOA
pathfinder projects which aim to resolve additional challenges related to thermal,
high voltage and stability constraints.
We have been learning from our pathfinders and are investigating expanding the range of
system needs beyond bulk power transfer and facilitating competition in our planning process.
There are currently three pathfinders:
Constraint Management
Voltage Pathfinder Stability Pathfinder
Pathfinder
Aims to address our immediate
Aims to find solutions Aims to resolve network
needs of national inertia and
to resolve regional constraint issues and lower
deliver local short circuit level
high voltage issues. balancing costs.
needs in Scotland.
12You can get involved in
NOA Stability Pathfinder shaping the pathfinders by:
Phase 2 (Scotland)
• Engaging with us on the direction of the
pathfinders. You can do this by emailing
box.networkdevelopment.roadmap@
NOA Constraint NOA North of England and nationalgrideso.com
Management Pennines Voltage Pathfinder
• Joining in any potential Request for
Information (RFI), expression of Interests (EOI)
and tenders with your solutions to the problems
being considered.
NOA Mersey Voltage
Pathfinder • You can find out about the progress of the
pathfinders by signing up to the mailing list here.
NOA Stability Pathfinder
Phase 1 GB wide
about the Pathfinders in
Chapter 5 of the ETYS
13Stakeholder feedback
We would like to thank everyone who participated in
the stakeholder survey in April 2020.
We’ve used your views to make improvements to the ETYS so that it is easier for all our
stakeholders to understand future electricity network challenges.
Other improvements we’re investigating include;
Improvements to schematic
Enhancing the More detail added to our
and geographic maps of the
probabilistic analysis Technical Appendices
transmission system
We are working with the TOs and
We have added the ability to consider
We’re investigating an interactive map investigating making additional
post fault actions to our analysis
information available
If you would like to receive updates about the ETYS and the NOA, please sign-up to our mailing
list here. What do you think about the ETYS 2020? Let us know!
Please email: etys@nationalgrideso.com Please sign up here
14How can I get involved?
You can get involved by:
• upporting the NOA Pathfinders and helping
S
solve network issues
• ign up to the Network Development newsletter
S
to stay up to date and find out about how you
can get more involved
If you would like to learn more or get involved,
please email: etys@nationalgrideso.com
Or you can read the full version of the
ETYS to find out more.
Pursuant to its electricity transmission licence, National Grid Electricity System Operator Limited is the system operator of the national electricity transmission system. For the purpose of this outlook document, the terms “we”, “our”, “us” etc. are used to refer to the licensed entity, National Grid Electricity System Operator Limited.
National Grid Electricity System Operator Limited has prepared this outlook document pursuant to its electricity transmission licence in good faith, and has endeavoured to prepare this outlook document in a manner which is, as far as reasonably possible, objective, using information collected and compiled from users of the gas
and electricity transmission systems in Great Britain together with its own forecasts of the future development of those systems. While National Grid Electricity System Operator Limited has not sought to mislead any person as to the contents of this outlook document and whilst such content represent its best view as at the time
of publication, readers of this document should not place any reliance on the contents of this outlook document. The contents of this outlook document must be considered as illustrative only and no warranty can be or is made as to the accuracy and completeness of such contents, nor shall anything within this outlook document
constitute an offer capable of acceptance or form the basis of any contract. Other than in the event of fraudulent misstatement or fraudulent misrepresentation, National Grid Electricity System Operator Limited does not accept any responsibility for any use which is made of the information contained within this outlook document.
15@ng_eso National Grid ESO National Grid ESO
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