OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020

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OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
OBSERVER
Dubai Residential Report
Q3 2020
OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
Q3 Highlights                                                           Key Indicators
Market Overview
                                                                    Economic Snapshot

                                                                    Dubai’s non-oil private sector continued to improve over the third           Apartments
                                                                    quarter, with the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Purchasing
                                                                    Managers' Index remaining above 50 each month (signalling                    Prices:
                                                                    expansion), rising to 51.5 in September from 50.9 in August.
                                                                                                                                                 Q-o-Q Change: –3.4%
  Dubai’s residential sector enjoyed a more buoyant third           While the third quarter saw a gradual recovery in market activity,           Y-o-Y Change: –11.4%
  quarter, with pent up sales demand, along with tenants            ratings agency S&P forecasts an overall 11% contraction for the
  taking advantage of lower rents to relocate, spurring             emirate’s economy in 2020, specifically highlighting Covid-19’s              Rents:
  market activity.                                                  impact on hospitality and tourism sectors.
                                                                                                                                                 Q-o-Q Change: –3.6%
  Average apartment rents fell by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter
                                                                    Dubai returned to public debt markets in September, for the                  Y-o-Y Change: –10.1%
                                                                    first time in six years, successfully issuing US$1 billion in Islamic
  (q-o-q) and 10.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), with average              sukuk and a further US$1 billion in government bonds.
  villa rents seeing more moderate declines of 1.2% q-o-q
  and 5.8% y-o-y.                                                   Sales Prices
                                                                                                                                                  Villas
                                                                    Average apartment prices fell 3.4% q-o-q, compared to a 2.6%
  Average apartment prices fell by 3.4% from Q2 2020, an            decline over the second quarter. Villa prices saw a marginal                  Prices:
  increase in the rate of decline from the previous quarter,        fall of 0.2%, with the overall rate of decline tapered by more                Q-o-Q Change: –0.2%
  where prices declined by 2.6%. Conversely, villa prices           stability across several locations and a return to Q1 prices in
  saw a marginal fall of just 0.2% q-o-q, with the overall          Palm Jumeirah. Annually, average apartment prices declined by                 Y-o-Y Change: –5.6%
                                                                    11.4%, with villas falling by 5.6%.
  average bolstered by greater price stability across several                                                                                     Rents:
  locations and, in the case of Palm Jumeirah, a return to          Rental Rates                                                                  Q-o-Q Change: –1.2%
  first quarter prices. Annually, apartment prices declined
  by 11.4%, while villas fell by 5.6%.                              Dubai’s rental market saw broad declines over the third quarter,              Y-o-Y Change: –5.8%
                                                                    with the economic impact of Covid-19 continuing to place
                                                                    pressure on rates. Average apartment rents fell by 3.6% over
  Residential transactions totalled 7,849 units over                Q3, a marginally lower pace of decline than the 3.9% recorded
  the third quarter, representing a near 50% rise q-o-q,            the previous quarter, contributing to a 10.1% fall from Q3 2019.
  although a fall of 21.7% compared to Q3 2019. Total                                                                                             Sales Volume
  transaction value reached AED 12.99 billion, a quarterly          Villa rents proved more resilient, falling by just 1.2% and 5.8% on           7,849 units
  rise of 43.4%, although down 15.2% y-o-y. The recovery            a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. The more moderate
  in sales activity was primarily driven by completed unit
                                                                    decline in villa rents is largely due to a rise in tenant interest            +50.0% Q-o-Q
                                                                    in landed property, with agents reporting a clear uptick in villa
  transfers, which accounted for 58% of total transaction           enquiries since social distancing measures eased in May.                      –21.7% Y-o-Y
  volume, and two-thirds of transaction value, over Q3.
                                                                    Off-plan Sales Launches
  Q3 witnessed the announcement of several new policy
  initiatives likely to support the market longer-term,
                                                                    Developers largely refrained from launching new projects over                 Sales Value
                                                                    Q3, with the total number of new units launched for sale off-
  including Dubai Land Department’s ‘fractional title deed’         plan standing at 4,834 between Q1 to Q3 2020. This compares                   AED 12.99 billion
  initiative and the launch of a new retirement programme           to 17,275 and 23,853 for the first three quarters of 2019 and
  offering five-year residency visas.                               2018, respectively.                                                           +43.4% Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                  –15.2% Y-o-Y
                                                                    Transactions
  We expect the final quarter of 2020 to see further declines
  in average sales prices and rents, with performance set           Volumes. Residential transactions totalled 7,849 units over the
  to increasingly vary by property type and location. While         third quarter, representing a near 50% rise on a quarterly basis,
  the longer-term outlook is less clear, assuming a broad           although a fall of 21.7% y-o-y.                                               Off-plan Launches
  economic recovery, we expect the market to see greater                                                                                          4,834 units (Q1–Q3 2020)
                                                                    Values. Total transaction value reached 12.99 billion over Q3,
  price stability over 2021.                                        representing a quarterly rise of 43.4%, although an annual fall
                                                                    of 15.2%.
                                                                                                                                                  –72.0% Y-o-Y

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 								            2   OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 							                                                 3
OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
Dubai saw an uplift in third quarter agency
activity, with villa and apartment price
trends diverging
Dubai saw a notable increase in transactional activity over the            from AED 657 over Q2. Dubai Silicon Oasis was the only
third quarter, building on the momentum noted during the final             other location to see a quarterly fall in average prices above
month of Q2.                                                               5%, reaching AED 540 per sq ft, down from AED 570 in Q2,
                                                                           representing a 5.3% drop.
While agency activity gained pace, average apartment prices
fell 3.4% from Q2 2020, an increase in the rate of decline from            International City saw a 4.6% fall from the previous quarter,
the previous quarter, where prices declined by 2.6%. Conversely,           with prices decreasing from AED 445 to AED 425 per sq ft.
villa prices saw a marginal fall of just 0.2% q-o-q, with the overall
average bolstered by greater price stability across several                Locations witnessing more moderate declines over Q3 included
locations and, in the case of Palm Jumeirah, a return to first-            Dubai Marina and The Greens, with prices falling by just 2.4%
quarter average prices. On an annual basis, average apartment              and 2.5%, respectively. Average apartment prices across The
prices declined by 11.4%, while villas fell by 5.6%.                       Views and Business Bay also performed comparatively well,
                                                                           declining by 2.7%, respectively, over the third quarter.
We expect prices to face further declines over the final quarter
of 2020, with the ongoing economic impact of Covid-19 and                  On an annual basis, Business Bay, Dubai Marina and Downtown
a likely reduction in the emirate’s population, both key drivers           saw the most moderate declines, at -5.8%,-6.2% and -7.8%,
of Dubai residential prices, set to hamper market performance.             respectively.

Completed unit sales drove transactional activity over Q3,                 Discovery Gardens, Motor City and Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC)
accounting for 58% of total transaction volume and two-thirds              saw the highest yearly declines, with average prices at Motor
of transaction value, with buyers showing a preference for the             City falling from AED 630 per sq ft in Q3 2019 to AED 520.
certainty offered by ready properties over off-plan alternatives.
Off-plan sales started to pick up towards the end of Q3, slightly          Villas:
surpassing ready property sales during September, having                   Q-o-Q Change: –0.2%
stood at around half their level over both July and August.                Y-o-Y Change: –5.6%

Residential Sales Voulme by Month (Q3 2020)                                Average villa prices performed comparatively well over the
 2000                                                                      third quarter, with the pace of decline tapered by broader price
 1800                                                                      stability.
 1600
 1400                                                                      Villa prices in Palm Jumeirah returned to AED 1,860 per sq ft,
 1200                                                                      up from AED 1,820 in Q2. Jumeirah Park saw prices hold steady
                                                                           over Q3, at AED 720 per sq ft, having seen a modest decline of
 1000
                                                                           0.7% the previous quarter.
                                                                                                                                                  HOT TOPIC                  Retirement visa to create developer opportunities
  800
  600
  400                                                                      Arabian Ranches and The Lakes both witnessed quarterly                 September saw the announcement of a new Dubai retirement programme, with a renewable five-year visa being offered to
  200                                                                      declines of less than 1%, at -0.4%, and -0.5%, respectively.           expatriates, aged over 55, providing they have either a minimum monthly income of AED 20,000, AED 1m in savings or a property
    0                                                                      Average prices at The Lakes stood at AED 975 per sq ft, down           worth at least AED 2m. Although the programme will initially focus on existing expatriate residents, the scheme ultimately aims to
               Jul-20                   Aug-20            Sep-20
                                                                           from AED 980 in Q2 2020, with average prices at Arabian                attract new international retirees to the emirate.
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Research              Off-plan        Ready
                                                                           Ranches standing at AED 787 per sq ft.
                                                                                                                                                  While the retiree market for Dubai property has been traditionally limited by expatriates having their residency status tied to
Apartments:                                                                The Meadows/The Springs saw the highest quarterly decline,             employment, the new programme will create a new demand driver. The development of retirement-focused communities,
Q-o-Q Change: –3.4%                                                        at -2.5%, with average prices reaching AED 795 per sq ft, down         incorporating healthcare and wider service provisions, will become increasingly viable, with a settled retired expatriate population
Y-o-Y Change: –11.4%                                                       from AED 815 the previous quarter.                                     set to further support broader residential demand.

The largest price declines in the apartment segment were                   While Jumeirah Park saw stable pricing on a quarterly basis, it        Once the scheme opens to a wider international market, it will further provide the opportunity for Dubai to compete for a share
witnessed in Dubai Sports City, with average prices falling by             was the only area to see a double-digit annual fall, with prices       of the fast-growing senior living sector, providing retirees with an alternative to the existing developments on offer in popular
5.5% q-o-q. Average prices reached AED 621 per sq ft, down                 down from AED 804 per sq ft in Q3 2019, a decline of 10.4%.            retirement destinations across the Mediterranean and the United States coastline.

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OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
Apartments and Villas − Residential Sales Prices and Quarterly Change

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The World                                                                                                            The Palm Deira

                                                                                                                                          Arabian Gulf
                                Dubai
                                                                The Palm                                                                                                                             -2.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  AED746
                                                                Jebel Ali
                               Waterfront                                                                                                                                                              Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Change
                                                                                                                                                      AED0,985                                                     JUMEIRAH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LAKE TOWERS
                                                                                                                                                        DUBAI
                                                                                                                                                        MARINA
                                                                                                                                                                         2.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                             AED768
                                                                                                                                                                                              JUMEIRAH
                                                                                                                                                                            Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                           Change
                                                                                                                                                                                             LAKE TOWERS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                      AED1,009                                                                            Change

                                                                                                                                                         DUBAI
                                                                                                                                                         MARINA                                                         AED1,820 AED1,860
                                                                                                                     AED795 -2.5%
                                                                                                                              Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                                             Palm Jumeirah
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            PALM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          JUMEIRAH                 PALM
                                                                                                                     THE MEADOWS         Change                                                                                                  JUMEIRAH                                                                                                  Dubai
                                                                                                                       /SPRINGS                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Maritime
                                                                                                                                                               Bluewater                                                                                                                                                                                    City

                                                                                                  AED505                          AED815                        Islands

                                                                                                                                  THE MEADOWS
                                                                                                                                                                        Jumeirah Beach
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -3.0%
                                                                                                  DISCOVERY                         /SPRINGS
                                                                                                                                                                          Residence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       AED815                                                                                                  Q-o-Q
                                                                                                   GARDENS                                                           Dubai Marina              Dubai Pearl
                                                                                                                                                                                           Media Internet
                                                                                                                                                                                                               AED836                    THE GREENS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Umm Suqeim                               Jumeirah                         Satwa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Bur Dubai
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 THE GREENS                                                                                                                             Burjuman                                                      Hamriya
                                                                                                  3.6%                                                                                      City
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 AED1,322 AED1,288
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Badaa
                                                                                                            AED524
                                                                                                                                                                                                    City
                                                                                                    Q-o-Q                         Ibn Battuta
                                                                                                                                               The   Jumeirah
                                                                                                                                                                                     JLT
                                                                                                                                                                                              Greens
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sufouh   -2.5%                                               Safa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Al Wasl
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Umm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Deira            Wuheida
                                                                                                                                     Mall                                                                                            Q-o-Q               Manara                                                                           DOWNTOWN                                                                              Mamzar
                                                                                                   Change     DISCOVERY                      Gardens Heights                          Emirates TECOM                                Change                                                                                        DOWNTOWN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Trade                   Hurair
                                                                             Jebel Ali Freezone                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   DIFC
                                                                                                               GARDENS                                             Meadows              Hills                                                                                                                                            Centre                Karama                       Deira City         Hor Al Anz
                                                                                                                                   Jebel Ali            Discovery  /Springs
                                                Downtown
                                                 Jebel Ali
                                                                            –                                                       Village             Gardens Jumeirah
                                                                                                                                                                  Islands
                                                                                                                                                                                                 The Views
                                                                                                                                                                                         The Lakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mall of the Emirates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           AED1,022
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Al Quoz                                     Dubai Mall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Zabeel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oud
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Metha
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Centre

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Barsha                                                                                                                                                                                                       Al Nahda
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              THE VIEWS
                                                                                                            0.0%                                                Jumeirah
                                                                                                                                                                  Park      The Springs                                    Barsha   AED1,050
                 Abu Dhabi                                                                                   Q-o-Q                        Al Furjan                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Garhoud                                                     Sharjah
                                                                                                            Change
                                                                                                                     AED720                                                                                                          THE VIEWS             -2.7%          Al Khail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Airport

                                                                                                                     JUMEIRAH
                                                                                                                                                                                                    AED980                                                    Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Gate                                                                                       Culture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Village
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Free Zone
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Twar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Qusais
                                                                                                                                                      -3.3%                                         THE LAKES          -0.5%
                                                                                                  AED720
                                                                                                                       PARK
                                      Technology Park
                                                                                                                              Green                    Q-o-Q                         Jumeirah                            Q-o-Q                                                                         AED997
                                                                                                                                                  Jumeirah                         Village Circle                       Change                                                                         BUSINESS BAY                                                                 Umm
                                                                                                     JUMEIRAH               Community                 Change
                                                                                                                                                    Golf           International                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ramool
                                                                                                       PARK                                                                                                                                                                                                             Bu Kadra
                                                                                                                                                   Estates            Media
                                                                                                                                      AED580 AED600                                                                                        -2.8%                                                                     AED970
                                                                                                                        Dubai
                                                                                                                     Investment
                                                                                                                                                                    Production
                                                                                                                                                                    Zone(IMPZ)                        AED975                                                                                                  -2.7% Meydan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     City
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dubai
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Festival City
                                                                                                                         Park                JUMEIRAH
                                                                                                                                         JUMEIRAH
                                                                                                                                          VILLAGE
                                                                                                                                                                VILLAGE                                THE LAKES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dubiotech
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Change        AED520                                              Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          BUSINESS BAY
                                                                                                                                                                 CIRCLE                  Sports                                                                                                                                                                                       Nadd
                                                             Dubai                                                                         CIRCLE                                         City                                                               MOTOR CITY                                                                   Ras Al Khor                                Shamma                                                    Muhaisnah
                                                             World
                                                             Central                                                   -5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Motor                       AED535
                                                                                                                                                                                                         City
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -5.3%                                                                  Nadd
                                                                                                                         Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                        Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    MOTOR CITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               AED540               Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Al Hammar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -4.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mirdif City
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Arabian                                                   DUBAI SILICON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Al Barari                                                                                                                 Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ranches                                                         OASIS                                                                                                                   Mirdif
                                                                                                             AED621 AED657
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Living Legends                                                                                                                             Change

                                                                                                                              SPORTS CITY
                                                                                                                                                                 -3.0%                                                                                                                           AED570                                                                             Warqaa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ghoroob                         Mizar

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   AED445 AED425
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Al Waha
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       AED790
                                                                                                              SPORTS CITY                                          Q-o-Q                                                                                                                         DUBAI SILICON
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Community
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              AED787
                                                                                                                                                                  Change                                                                                                                            OASIS           Nad Al Sheba                                                           Shorooq
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ARABIAN                                                                                                      Dragon Mart                       INTERNATIONAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   INTERNATIONAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ARABIAN
                                                                                                                                               AED645
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Layan                       RANCHES
                                                                                                                                                                         AED665
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   CITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  RANCHES                                                                               International                   CITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             City
                                                                                                                                                  DUBAILAND                DUBAILAND              Dubailand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -0.4%                                                            Dubai
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Silicon Oasis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Khwaneej
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q-o-Q                                                                                              Awir
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Change                                                                       Academic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       City

Figures in AED/Sq Ft            Villa Sales Q2 2020                         Villa Sales Q3 2020                         Apartment Sales Q2 2020                                          Apartment Sales Q3 2020                                                  Q-o-Q Change
Source: Chestertons Research

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OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
Q3 saw market-wide declines in average rents,
with villas proving more resilient for the second
consecutive quarter

Dubai’s rental market saw broad declines over the third quarter,      of lower rates to upgrade their accommodation, with the               On an individual unit-type basis, rents for two-bedroom units at   declines of below 1%, with Arabian Ranches also seeing
with the economic impact of Covid-19 continuing to place              relocation to villa properties ever-more popular. This, in part,      International City saw the steepest quarterly decline, at -7%,     comparatively moderate fall of 1.3% q-o-q.
pressure on rates. Average apartment rents fell by 3.6% over Q3,      accounts for the comparatively moderate fall in average villa         following a period of stability over the second quarter.
a marginally slower pace of decline than the 3.9% recorded over       rents compared to apartments.                                                                                                            On a unit-type basis, five-bedroom villas at The Lakes saw the
Q2, contributing to a 10.1% fall from y-o-y.                                                                                                On an annual basis, average rents across Dubai Sports City and     sharpest quarterly drop, falling to AED 280,000 per annum
                                                                      While we expect relocations to support market activity over           Motor City saw the highest average declines, at -14.9% and         from AED 290,000 in Q2, a decline of 3.4%. Conversely, three-
Villa rents proved more resilient, falling by just 1.2% and 5.8% on   the final quarter of 2020, residential rents will likely be further   -13.4%, respectively, with The Greens, The Views, Dubai Silicon    bedroom villas at The Lakes and JVT held steady over Q3, as
a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. The more moderate         challenged by the economic impact of Covid-19. The third              Oasis, Discovery Gardens and Business Bay all seeing double-       did four-bedroom units at JVT, Palm Jumeirah and Jumeirah
decline in villa rents is mainly due to a rise in tenant interest     quarter continued to see job losses and a further fall in Dubai’s     digit annual falls.                                                Islands.
in landed property, with agents reporting a clear uptick in villa     expatriate population presents a clear ongoing risk.
enquiries since the easing of social distancing restrictions in                                                                             DIFC and Downtown Dubai saw annual declines of 6.8% and            On an annual basis, The Springs, Arabian Ranches and The
May.                                                                  With household incomes likely to remain under pressure,               7.5%, respectively, with Dubailand, Dubai Marina, International    Meadows witnessed the sharpest rental rate falls, with rents
                                                                      Landlords will need to demonstrate flexibility to both attract        City, Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT) and Jumeirah Village Circle       decreasing by 9.3%, 8.9% and 8.1%, respectively, compared
While all areas saw declines in average rents over Q3, the rate       and retain tenants over Q4 2020.                                      (JVC) witnessing yearly decreases with the range of 7.6% to        to Q3 2019. The Lakes, Victory Heights and Al Furjan all saw
of decrease varied by unit type and location, with locations                                                                                9.6%.                                                              annual declines above 5%.
with higher volumes of new supply, and smaller unit-types,            Apartments:
continuing to see above-average falls.                                Q-o-Q Change: –3.6%                                                   Villas:                                                            Smaller villa units showed steeper average declines, with two
                                                                      Y-o-Y Change: –10.1%                                                  Q-o-Q Change: –1.2%                                                and three-bedroom units seeing annual rates fall by 12.2% and
With the ongoing economic impact of Covid-19 taking effect,                                                                                 Y-o-Y Change: –5.8%                                                6.3%, respectively, compared to falls of 5% across four-bedroom
Dubai landlords have continued to demonstrate flexibility with        All areas saw declines in average rents over the third quarter,                                                                          villas and 4.8% for five-bedroom units.
payment terms to support tenants. Multiple rental cheques are         within a bracket of -2.1% to -5.8%.                                   On a quarterly basis, Jumeirah Village Triangle (JVT), Jumeirah
now widely expected by tenants, with payment through four to                                                                                Islands, Jumeirah Golf Estates and Palm Jumeirah all saw
eight cheques, and in some cases twelve, becoming increasingly        Studio units saw the sharpest falls over Q3, falling by an average
common. Landlords continued to offer promotional rent-free            of 4.4% q-o-q, following a 5.8% decline the previous quarter.
periods and increasingly listed units with the option of shorter      One-bedroom units fell by an average of 3.7%, following a 3.9%
lease terms.                                                          fall over Q2.

With residential rents declining further over the third quarter,      International City witnessed the sharpest quarterly fall in
there has been a growing trend of tenants taking advantage            average rents, at -5.8%, followed by Discovery Gardens at -5.5%.

HOT TOPIC                   New priorities and falling rents spur villa demand

Dubai’s leading residential agencies reported a wave of rental activity over Q3, with tenants taking advantage of lower rents to
upgrade accommodation, or relocating with a view to saving costs.

With many tenants continuing to work from home, demand has increased for more open space and outside areas, with listings
portals reporting a rise in searches for properties with pools, gardens and large balconies.

This change in living preferences is supporting demand for Dubai’s villa schemes, with villa rents continuing to outperform the wider
residential average.

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OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
Apartments - Average Rents by District/Unit Type and Quarterly Change

                              250,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -2%
                              200,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -4%
AED PER UNIT PER ANNUM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PERCENTAGE CHANGE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -6%
                              150,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -8%

                              100,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -10%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -12%
                               50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -14%

                                    -                                                                                                                                                                                                                               -16%
                                            Business Bay       DIFC           Discovery    Downtown         Dubai Marina         Dubai           Dubai       Dubailand      International         JLT       JVC    The Greens        The Views          Dubai
                                                                              Gardens        Dubai                           Silicon Oasis     Sports City                       City                                                                  Motor City

Source: Chestertons Research                                     Studio         1BR       2BR         3BR         QoQ Change

  Villas - Average Rents by District/Unit Type and Quarterly Change

                              400,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0%

                              350,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             PERCENTAGE CHANGE
     AED PER UNIT PER ANNUM

                              300,000

                              250,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -4%

                              200,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -6%
                              150,000

                              100,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -8%
                               50,000

                                        -                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -10%
                                                     Arabian               The                    The                The Lakes               Victory            Al Furjan                   JVT         Jumeirah       Jumeirah                    Palm
                                                     Ranches              Springs               Meadows                                      Heights                                                     Islands      Golf Estates               Jumeirah

Source: Chestertons Research                                     2BR            3BR       4BR         5BR         QoQ Change

  OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 								                                                                                          10                OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 							                                                      11
OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
Transactions rose sharply q-o-q, following a
slow second quarter, with figures bolstered by
completed unit transfers
Residential transactions totalled 7,849 units over the third        Ready property sales totalled 4,587 units over Q3, compared
quarter, representing a near 50% rise q-o-q, although a fall of     to 1,902 over the second quarter, representing an over 140%
21.7% compared to Q3 2019.                                          increase q-o-q and a more moderate 12.3% rise y-o-y.

The recovery in sales activity was primarily driven by ready        Off-plan sales totalled 3,262 units over Q3, down from 3,331
property sales, which accounted for 58% of total transaction        the previous quarter and a notable fall from the 5,943 units sold
volume and two-thirds of overall transaction value.                 over Q3 2019.

Total transaction value reached 12.99 billion over Q3,              Town Square saw the highest volume of completed units
representing a quarterly rise of 43.4%, although a fall of 15.2%    transfer over Q3, at 539, followed by Dubai Marina at 304 units.
on an annual basis.
                                                                    Transaction Values
While off-plan sales remained at a more similar level to Q2,        Q-o-Q Movement (Completed Units): +93.9%
with total transaction volume and value falling by 2.1% and 5%,     Q-o-Q Movement (Off-Plan Units): –5%
respectively, off-plan activity showed signs of regaining pace      Y-o-Y Movement (Completed Units): +19%
over September.                                                     Y-o-Y Movement (Off-Plan Units): –45.8%

42% of apartments sold over Q3 were one-bedroom units,              Transaction values for completed properties rose by just under
followed by studios and two-bedroom units at 24%, respectively.     94% from Q2, from AED 4.43 billion to AED 8.60 billion. On
Three-bedroom and above units accounted for 10% of total            an annual basis, the total transaction value of completed
sales.                                                              properties rose by 19%, from AED 7.23 billion in Q3 2019.

Three-bedroom villas represented 47% of third quarter sales,        By contrast, off-plan transfer value fell by 5% on a quarterly
followed by four-bedroom villas at 32%. Five-bedroom villas         basis, from AED 4.62 in Q2 2020 to AED 4.39 billion, with total
accounted for 11% of transactions, with two-bedroom and six-        off-plan transaction value declining by over 45% annually.
bedroom and above units accounting for 5%, respectively.
                                                                    Palm Jumeirah saw the highest total value of completed
Transaction Volumes                                                 properties transfer over the third quarter, with transactions
Q-o-Q Movement (Completed Units): +141.2%                           totalling AED 743 million, followed by Dubai Hills Estate at AED
Q-o-Q Movement (Off-Plan Units): –2.1%                              668 million.
Y-o-Y Movement (Completed Units): +12.3%
Y-o-Y Movement (Off-Plan Units): –45.1%

Quarterly Transactions by Volume (No of Units)                      Quarterly Transactions by Value (AED Billion)
                                                                                                                                        HOT TOPIC                  Sales figures suggest a post-lockdown surge, but can it be sustained?
7000                                                                 10.00
                                                                      9.00
6000                                                                                                                                    Residential sales transactions saw a near 50% increase over Q3, driven by a surge in completed unit transfers, which rose from a low
                                                                      8.00
5000                                                                                                                                    of under 2,000 units over the second quarter to over 4,500.
                                                                      7.00

4000                                                                  6.00
                                                                      5.00
                                                                                                                                        There are several factors behind the sharp rise, with the introduction of generous developer promotions clearly serving to drive sales.
3000                                                                  4.00                                                              This can be seen in the case of Town Square, which recorded the highest number of ready property sales by community, following a
2000                                                                  3.00                                                              promotion by the developer, Nshama, offering five-year post-handover payment plans on completed units.
                                                                      2.00
1000                                                                                                                                    While developer incentives played a role in supporting sales, pent up second quarter demand, and delays in the transactional
                                                                      1.00
   0                                                                  0.00                                                              process seen during lockdown, were also significant factors in boosting third quarter figures.
             Q3 2019           Q2 2020         Q3 2020                            Q3 2019          Q2 2020           Q3 2020

                                                                                                                                        We expect that Q4 transaction numbers will provide a more reliable indicator of Covid-19’s market impact, and the extent of
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons                 Completed Properties                  Off-Plan                                             Dubai’s market recovery.

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 								                                                                              12
OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
Transactions Dashboard Q3 2020

                                                                             Apartments                                                        Villas
                                                                        Q3 2020 Sales Volume                                            Q3 2020 Sales Volume
                                                                         by No of Bedrooms                                               by No of Bedrooms

                                                                                10%                                                                 5%
                                                                                                                                               5%

                                                                                                                                         11%

                                                                        24%
                                                                                                 42%                                                                47%

                                                                                                                                           32%
                                                                                24%

                                                                  One          Studio      Two         Three +              Three       Four             Five       Six +   Two

                                                                             Apartments                                                         Villas
                                                                        Q3 2020 Sales Volume                                            Q3 2020 Sales Volume
                                                                        by Construction Status                                          by Construction Status

                                                                                                                                                                36%
                                                                                                 41%

                                                                         59%
                                                                                                                                          64%

                                                                        Source: REIDIN & Chestertons             Completed Properties                    Off-Plan

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 								   14   OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 							                                                                   15
OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
Q3 2020 Sales Transactions                                                                                                     Q3 2020 Sales Transactions
Completed Units                                                                                                                Off-plan Units

Top 10 Areas Based
     Jumeirah Lake   on Transaction
                   Towers
                Jumeirah Lake Towers Volumes (Number of Units)                                                                Top 10
                                                                                                                            Arabian   Areas
                                                                                                                                    Ranches  Based
                                                                                                                                            (Phase
                                                                                                                                      Arabian
                                                                                                                                                    on (Phase
                                                                                                                                                   3)
                                                                                                                                              Ranches
                                                                                                                                                       Transaction
                                                                                                                                                              3)
                                                                                                                                                                   Volumes (Number of Units)

            Palm JumeirahPalm Jumeirah                                                                                                   Emaar South   Emaar South
      Jumeirah Lake Towers
                  Jumeirah Lake Towers                                                                                      Arabian Ranches  (Phase
                                                                                                                                       Arabian        3) (Phase 3)
                                                                                                                                                 Ranches
         Dubai Hills Estate
                      Dubai Hills Estate                                                                                            International   City
                                                                                                                                                 International   City
            Palm Jumeirah Palm Jumeirah                                                                                                  Emaar SouthEmaar South
         Downtown Dubai
                      Downtown Dubai                                                                                                 Dubai Hills Estate
                                                                                                                                                  Dubai Hills Estate
         Dubai Hills Estate
                      Dubai Hills Estate                                                                                            International   City
                                                                                                                                                 International    City
              Business Bay  Business Bay                                                                                                 Business Bay  Business Bay
         Downtown Dubai
                      Downtown Dubai                                                                                                 Dubai Hills Estate
                                                                                                                                                  Dubai Hills Estate
         Dubai Sports   City Sports City
                      Dubai                                                                                                          Downtown Dubai
                                                                                                                                                 Downtown Dubai
              Business BayBusiness Bay                                                                                                   Business BayBusiness Bay
         International  City
                     International    City                                                                                            Sobha HartlandSobha Hartland
         Dubai SportsDubai
                        City Sports City                                                                                             Downtown Dubai
                                                                                                                                                  Downtown Dubai
     Jumeirah Village  CircleVillage Circle
                Jumeirah                                                                                                                 The LagoonsThe Lagoons
         International  City
                      International    City                                                                                           Sobha HartlandSobha Hartland
             Dubai Marina  Dubai Marina                                                                                         Jumeirah Village  CircleVillage Circle
                                                                                                                                           Jumeirah
     Jumeirah Village  CircleVillage Circle
                Jumeirah                                                                                                                 The LagoonsThe Lagoons
              Town Square   Town Square                                                                                                   Tilal Al GhafTilal Al Ghaf
             Dubai Marina  Dubai Marina                                                                                         Jumeirah Village  CircleVillage Circle
                                                                                                                                           Jumeirah
                                 -          -100           200
                                                          100          300
                                                                      200       400
                                                                               300        500
                                                                                         400         600
                                                                                                    500     600                                             -      50 - 10050 150100 200150 250200 300250 350300 400350 450400 500450       500
              Town SquareTown Square                                                                                                      Tilal Al GhafTilal Al Ghaf
 Source: REIDINSource:
                & Chestertons
                       REIDIN & Chestertons                                                                       Source: REIDINSource:
                                                                                                                                 & Chestertons
                                                                                                                                        REIDIN & Chestertons
                                  -              100
                                                 -         200
                                                          100          300
                                                                      200       400
                                                                               300        500
                                                                                         400         600
                                                                                                    500     600                                                -      50 - 100 50 150100 200150 250200 300250 350300 400350 450400 500450   500

 Source: REIDINSource:
                & Chestertons
                       REIDIN & Chestertons                                                                       Source: REIDINSource:
                                                                                                                                 & Chestertons
                                                                                                                                        REIDIN & Chestertons

Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED)                                                                      Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED)

            Arabian Ranches
                      Arabian Ranches                                                                                                     Palm Jumeirah
                                                                                                                                                    Palm Jumeirah

                Emirates HillsEmirates Hills                                                                                 Arabian Ranches
                                                                                                                                           Arabian(Phase   3) (Phase 3)
                                                                                                                                                      Ranches
            Arabian RanchesArabian Ranches                                                                                                  Palm Jumeirah Palm Jumeirah
            Downtown DubaiDowntown Dubai                                                                                                   Dubai Harbour  Dubai Harbour
                Emirates HillsEmirates Hills                                                                                 Arabian Ranches
                                                                                                                                           Arabian(Phase   3) (Phase 3)
                                                                                                                                                      Ranches
                 Business Bay  Business Bay                                                                                                   Business Bay  Business Bay
            Downtown DubaiDowntown Dubai                                                                                                   Dubai Harbour  Dubai Harbour
                  District OneDistrict One                                                                                               Dubai Hills Estate
                                                                                                                                                       Dubai Hills Estate
                 Business BayBusiness Bay                                                                                                     Business BayBusiness Bay
        Jumeirah Bay     Island Bay Island
                       Jumeirah                                                                                                   Jumeirah Village     CircleVillage Circle
                                                                                                                                                Jumeirah
                  District One District One                                                                                              Dubai Hills Estate
                                                                                                                                                       Dubai Hills Estate
                Dubai Marina  Dubai Marina                                                                                               Sobha Heartland
                                                                                                                                                       Sobha Heartland
        Jumeirah Bay     Island Bay Island
                       Jumeirah                                                                                                   Jumeirah Village     CircleVillage Circle
                                                                                                                                                Jumeirah
                 Town Square   Town Square                                                                        The LagoonsThe  (Dubai   Creek
                                                                                                                                     Lagoons       Harbour)
                                                                                                                                                (Dubai   Creek Harbour)
                Dubai Marina  Dubai Marina                                                                                               Sobha HeartlandSobha Heartland
            Dubai Hills Estate
                          Dubai Hills Estate                                                                                             Downtown DubaiDowntown Dubai
                 Town SquareTown Square                                                                           The LagoonsThe  (Dubai   Creek(Dubai
                                                                                                                                     Lagoons       Harbour)
                                                                                                                                                         Creek Harbour)
               Palm Jumeirah Palm Jumeirah                                                                                                     Tilal Al GhafTilal Al Ghaf
            Dubai Hills Estate
                          Dubai Hills Estate                                                                                             Downtown DubaiDowntown Dubai
                                  -         100-       200
                                                        100   300
                                                               200     400
                                                                        300   500
                                                                               400    600
                                                                                       500   700
                                                                                              600    800
                                                                                                      700   800                                                  -         100
                                                                                                                                                                            -    200
                                                                                                                                                                                 100       300
                                                                                                                                                                                           200       400
                                                                                                                                                                                                     300      500
                                                                                                                                                                                                              400       600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        500       700
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  600       700
               Palm Jumeirah Palm Jumeirah                                                                                                     Tilal Al GhafTilal Al Ghaf
 Source: REIDINSource:
                & Chestertons
                       REIDIN & Chestertons                                                                       Source: REIDINSource:
                                                                                                                                 & Chestertons
                                                                                                                                        REIDIN & Chestertons

                                  -           100-     200
                                                        100   300
                                                                200    400
                                                                        300   500
                                                                               400    600
                                                                                       500   700
                                                                                              600    800
                                                                                                      700   800                                                -         100
                                                                                                                                                                          -      200
                                                                                                                                                                                 100       300
                                                                                                                                                                                           200       400
                                                                                                                                                                                                     300      500
                                                                                                                                                                                                              400       600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        500       700
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  600       700
 Source: REIDINSource:
                & Chestertons
                       REIDIN & Chestertons                                                                       Source: REIDINSource:
                                                                                                                                 & Chestertons
                                                                                                                                        REIDIN & Chestertons
OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 								                                                        16                  OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 							                                                           17
OBSERVER Q3 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020
About Us                                                                                              Core Services

                                                                                                                                Valuations
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                                                                                                                                Portfolio Valuations

                                                                                                                                Strategic Consultancy & Research
                                                                                                                                Financial Feasibilities
                                                                                                                                Highest and Best Use Studies
Chestertons, a founding member of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, has been                                        Market Research
delivering leading-edge property advice to clients for over 200 years.                                                          Conceptual Advisory and Project Positioning Studies
                                                                                                                                Project Redevelopment/Repositioning Advisory
From our origins in 1805 to today’s global operation                                                                            Investment Strategies – Acquisition and Disposal
spanning over 120 offices in 20 countries, Chestertons         Nick Witty, BSc (Hons) MRICS
has enjoyed a longheld reputation for providing                Managing Director
                                                               MENA                                                             Sales and Leasing
expert property insight and on-the-ground delivery
                                                               nick.witty@chestertons.com                                       Commercial
to investors, developers, corporate occupiers and
                                                                                                                                Industrial
financial institutions.
                                                                                                                                Residential
                                                                                                                                Retail
We support our clients across the breadth of their
real estate needs and pride ourselves on taking an             Adam Wilson, BSc (Hons) MRICS ACIArb
                                                               Head of Valuations
interest in their goals and challenges. Our ‘old service       MENA
values’ means we are passionate about the success              adam.wilson@chestertons.com
of our clients and our focus is always on consistently                                                                          Property Management
delivering value at every stage in the project lifecycle.                                                                       Commercial
                                                                                                                                Mixed-Use
While Chestertons is a global company, we understand           Chris Hobden, BA (Hons) MSc MRICS                                Residential
our clients’ interests are tied to the local market in which   Head of Strategic Consultancy
they operate. As such, we employ the most suitably             MENA
                                                               chris.hobden@chestertons.com
qualified people on the ground, while sharing global
best practices to support each and every client project.
We have unparalleled knowledge of the Middle East                                                                               International Properties
and North Africa market with a team of 70 specialists                                                                           London Off-Plan Residential
across the region.                                             Ellen Sleutjes                                                   International Homes and Investments
                                                               Head of Agency                                                   International Relocations
                                                               MENA
                                                               ellen.sleutjes@chestertons.com

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 								                                            18    OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q3 2020 							                             19
Contact Us

Mena Head Office                                                                                            Bahrain Office
2503, Marina Plaza, Dubai Marina                                                                            Maz Business Centre
PO Box 283361, Dubai                                                                                        The Lagoon
United Arab Emirates                                                                                        Amwaj Island
Office: +9714 381 0200                                                                                      Bahrain
Fax: +9714 325 3359                                                                                         Office: +973 1603 0646
Email: uae.enquiry@chestertons.com                                                                          Email: bahrain@chestertons.com

Abu Dhabi Office                                                                                            Global Headquarters
Office No. 802, Tamouh Tower                                                                                40 Connaught Street
Building 12, Marina Square                                                                                  London, W2 2AB
Al Reem Island, PO Box 128983                                                                               United Kingdom
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Office: +9712 447 3100
Fax: +9712 441 6200                                                                                         Further offices across the UK, Europe
Email: abudhabi@chestertons.com                                                                             Asia Pacific, Africa and the Caribbean.

Disclaimer:

All articles and data presented herein is intended for information purposes and has been compiled from sources deemed reliable including the Valuations and Research De-
partment of Chestertons, sales and leasing staff, published data, and secondary sources. Though information is believed to be correct, material presented is subject to errors,
omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.

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