Oceano & Clima: come quantificare i cambiamenti in corso?
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
CNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.it
Oceano & Clima: come quantificare i
cambiamenti in corso?
Rosalia Santoleri & CNR-ISMAR team
CNR Istituto di Scienze Marine
Istituto di direttore@ismar.cnr.it
Scienze Marine rosalia.santoleri@cnr.it
CNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.it
Climate and Ocean IPCC AR5
The ocean contains 97% of all water on Earth
Where is global warming going?
It traps > 90% of global warming Atmosphere
2.3%
It receives > 80% of all precipitations Continents
2.1%
It transports heat and freshwater over Ocean
Glaciers & ice caps
great distances 93.4% 0.9%
> 70% Arctic sea ice
It adsorbes 1/3 of all anthropogenic CO2 0.8%
Greenland Ice Sheet
0.2%
Antarctic Ice Sheet
0.2%
Where are CO2 emissions going?
30% 40% 30%
How inappropriate to call this
planet Earth when it is quite
clearly Ocean - Arthur C. Clarke
Ocean Atmosphere Land cover
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
Global Ocean Observing System
Osservare l’Oceano è essenziale per
quantificare i cambiamenti avvenuti nel recente
passato e monitorare i cambiamenti in atto e
prevedere il futuro
Ocean Essential Variable (EOV)
includes the ECVs
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
Integrated system
designed to meet
many requirements:
• Climate
• Weather prediction
• Global and coastal ocean
prediction
• Marine hazards warning
• Transportation
• Marine environment and • Tide gauge stations
ecosystem monitoring • Drifting Buoys
• Naval applications
• Tropical Moored Buoys
• 8 of 9 Societal Benefits
• Profiling Floats
• Ships of Opportunity
• Ocean Reference Stations
• Ocean Carbon Networks
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
Ocean Monitoring From Space
Doppler velocity Ocean Colour
Sentinel-1 A/B Sentinel-2 A/B
Rugosity
Sea Surface
Temperature
Sentinel-3 A/B Sun Glitter
Sentinel-5P
Surface Solar
SMOS Radiation Sea Level
Wind Salinity
Cryosat-2
Meteosat SG
Metop-C
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
European Copernicus Program & CNR-ISMAR
Copernicus is the European Union's Earth Observation Programme, looking at our planet and its environment for
the ultimate benefit of all European citizens. It offers information services based on satellite Earth Observation,
in situ (non-space) data and model.
Next
generation CNR: EOV Product Development
Satellite & production, reanalysis
mission assessment
&
CAL/VAL
activities
CNR: Independent Scientific Quality
assessment of ECV products
(Atmosphere – Ocean – Land) ,
reanalysis development
CNR has a leading role on Copernicus Marine and Climate Services
CNR contribute to the Copernicus space and in situ components: data and products requirements ,
product validation and design of the next generation of satellite missions and in situ infrastructures
The Copernicus Marine
CNR
www.cnr.it
Environment
DSSTTA Monitoring
www.dta.cnr.it
Service
ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.ricercamarina.it
& the CNR-ISMAR role
D
i
s
s
e
m
i
n
a
t
i
o
n
CNR leads: Ocean Colour & SST
TAC & Dissemination Service
CNR is partner in: Multi-
OBS(SSS, currents) & In Situ
(HF radar)
NRT and Multi Years Observation and forecasts covering the global ocean
and the European regional Seas: Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Atlantic,
Baltic and Arctic
THE CMEMS OCEAN STATE REPORT
Marine … provides a state-of-the-art assessment of … draws on expert analysis
Monitoring
the state of the global ocean and European
regional seas 100 experts
Ocean Monitoring Indicator
… provides
• a 4-D view
• a view from above
• a view directly from the interior
Blu Green
White Ocean
Ocean
For ocean scientific community as well Ocean
as for policy and decision makers.
Published every year since 2016 in Journal of Operational Oceanography:
OSR 5 (2021) just published
https://marine.copernicus.eu/access-data/ocean-state-report/ocean-state-report-5
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
• SST is the EOV/ECV variable hisorically more measured
• The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) offers surface marine data
spanning 1800-present mainly based primary on ship of opportunity data (until the ‘80s)
• International Data Rescue initiative are ongoing to recover data since 1662
• Data Rescue
• Digitalization
• Metadata creation
• Homogeneization
• Quality control
• Uncertainty characterization
These data are used to recostruct the past ocean climate during instrumental era. Global/regional
gridded and gap free products are public avaliable:
– statisticallly method (analysis)
- model-based reconstructions (reanalysis)
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
Global SST climatology from 2003-2020
Climate
Change
At Global scale
ISMAR Global Ocean and climate dynamics
coordinates the
Copernicus
Climate Change Chunxue Yang
Service (C3S) ISMAR, Roma
project to assess
climate datasets
of the Climate
Data Store
(CDS) for the
study of climatic
signals in
different ECV
global SST analysis
(atmosphere,
ocean,
intercomparison
cryosphere and
land
Yang et al. (2021) J. Climate (https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0793.1)CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
Global monthly
ISTITUTO DI mean SST
SCIENZE MARINE
Climate
Change
Yang et al. (2021) J. Climate (https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0793.1)
Global Ocean and climate dynamics
Chunxue Yang
ISMAR, Roma
Satellite EraCONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
SST trend 2003-2018
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
Climate
Change
Global Ocean and climate dynamics
Chunxue Yang
ISMAR, Roma
Yang et al. (2021) J. ClimateCONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
Tasso di Crescita della livello del mare 2003-2018
Climate
Change
Global Ocean and climate dynamics
Chunxue Yang
ISMAR, Roma
Causes of Sea Level Rise
Cosa provoca l’aumento del livello del mare ?
addition of heat addition of freshwater Total sea level rise Coastal ecosystems are
already impacted by the
combination of SLR
+ =CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
Copertura dei ghiacci ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
marini (2002-2017 )
Climate
Change
Tasso del cambiamento della concentrazione del
ghiaccio marino per decennio, nel periodo 2002-2017
Estesione dei ghiacci
emisfero nord Global Ocean and climate dynamics
Chunxue Yang
ISMAR, Roma
Massonnet et al., Sea Ice MPQBThe dual importance of the Arctic sea-ice decline
The sea-ice decline causes and consequences
Ice-albedo feedbacks
Thermohaline circulation
Changes in the global ocean and atmospheric Increased ocean heat exchanges
Meridional heat redistribution
circulation and heat redistribution Heavier winter storms
[...]
Amplification of the climate change
The Arctic as a system
Sea-ice decline Climate Change
The sea-ice decline as global warming proxy
One of the shades of climate change, which is Increased longwave radiation
easy to measure accurately from the satellite era (from Change of circulation patterns
Warmer air masses
1979 onwards) Meridional heat redistribution
Decrease in snowfall
Increase in variability
The importance in the media: advertising the Intrusion of warm waters
“global warming” [...]
Perception and sensitivity depends on the proxyOcean Heat Content
Ocean Heat Content is a fundamental proxy of the
climate change, as the oceans store ~90% of the SST
excess energy caused by the increase of OHC
concentration of heat-trapping GHGs (~0.6 W m-2
from 1990s in the top 2000m)
Due to the scarcity of in-situ observations before the
Argo float era, it is not easy to estimate accurately
the variations of OHC on multi-decadal scales, and
disentangling the effect of internal versus external
forcing on the OHC variability, and the natural high-
frequency variability dominated e.g. by ENSO, etc.
Surface datasets (e.g. SST), while more accurate,
Recent acceleration visible in OHC
cannot sketch the integrated effect of the global and not SST (e.g. Cheng et al., 2018)
climate change
CNR
www.cnr.ithistorical data
Yang et al. (2017)
CNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
Meyssignac et al. (2019) www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.itOcean Heat Content
(Garcia-Soto et al., 2021) CNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.itGlobal and basin-scale warming from
ensemble reanalyses
• OHCT is unprecedented since 1998
Basin Volume
• The Indian Ocean accumulates
heat more significantly than its
volume contribution. The Atlantic
Ocean less.
• The Pacific Ocean is the largest (in
absolute) heat accumulator
Basin warming
• Contributions from polar regions
are not significant
• Four periods of anomalous
Notable volcanic eruptions Significant signal (w.r.t. spread) warming are identified: 1929-1935,
• Only occasional short periods with negative OHCT 1954-1964, 1968-1980, 1993-
CNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
(Storto et al., 2021) www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.itCNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.it
Mediterranean Region: a climate change hotspot
Mediterranean region: one of the most responsive to climate change Global
from Medecc AR1
Mediterranean
ΔT vs pre-industrial levels = 1.4 °C (0.5 °C more than global average)
Future projections: a global ΔT=2°C implies a ΔTMED=3°C
2100 → 2-6 °C T increase and 5-25% P decrease
from IPCC AR4
Mediterranean Sea: a miniature ocean
▪ Intense winter atmospheric forcings
Laboratory for:
▪ Dense water formation
✓ document changes
▪ Thermohaline circulation
✓ understand role of
▪ Short turnover timescales
key processes involved in climate change
▪ Concentration basinCONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI NEL MEDITERRANEO
La regione mediterranea si riscalda attualmente il 20% più
velocemente del globo
La temperatura media annuale è ora di 1,4°C al di sopra dei
tempi preindustrialiCONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
ISTITUTO DI SCIENZE MARINE
SST trend map (C/year) covering the 1982–2018 period
Spectrum Analysis
based on Singular
Trends reconstruction
trend di riscaldamento quasi continuo della SST ad un
tasso di 0,041 ± 0,006 °C/anno. Rappresenta un La SST del Mediterraneo è aumentata di 1,0-1,5 °C mentre nel box
atlantico dopo l'aumento di 0,8 °C del 1982-1998 la SST è rimasta
aumento totale della SST di circa 1,5 °C dal 1982 al costante. Le SST del Mediterraneo e del Box Atlantico si biforcano
2018 intorno al 2008.
[Pisano et al.Remote Sensing 2020]CNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.it
Measuring the Ocean : the CNR Observing System
Oceanographic
tower IAS
Moorings
ISP
Oceanographic Buoys
or cabled systems
Repeated transects
and stations
Glider line
Radars Datasets → international repositories
Upgrade of the ISMAR observing systemCNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.it
Rising temperature and salinity at depth
Schroeder et al., 2017, ISMAR VE, SP, TS
Sardinia Channel, 1900
m, 2003-2019
T
➢ 28 years @400 m: ΔT=0.68°C and ΔS=0.20
➢ Mediterranean «signal»
S
Adapted from Medecc AR1 and data collected by ISMAR VE, SP, TS dataExtreme Events: Marine Heat Waves in the observed in
the last 40 years
Leonelli et 2021 in preparationClimate change: the global picture from OSR 2020
The Earth system as a closed system
and the role of the heat-trapping
greenhose gases
Looking at the energy budget, its
distribution, its rate of change and
acceleration
from von Schuckmann et al. (2020)Earth System Models
Earth system models (ESMs) are numerical representation of the physical processes
occurring on the Earth, and are based on spatio-temporal discretization of the
equations governing such processes
⚫ ESMs are fundamental tools for scientists to
understand the processes underlying the climate
change
⚫ ESMs are affected by both systematic and random
Atmospheric error, caused by the discretization itself, the
model approximations contained of parametrizations, and
our limited knowledge of the physical processes and
Land limited computational power
model Data Assimilation is the technique that statistically combines
Wave (weighs) models and observations accounting for their respective
errors and balances, to recover from ESM errors
model
Ocean
model Data Assimilation
is used
Biogeochemical model for predictions
and climate
Sea-ice model
reconstructionsThe predictability problem Importance of ESMs are tools now shared by any scale of Importance of the observations prediction the scenarios Deterministic Probabilistic predictions predictions Sketch extracted from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) website
CNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.it
Key messages
➢ Understanding of climatic processes occurring in the oceans
requires regular and long-term observations and advanced
numerical tools
→ enable us to separate real long-term trends
in environmental drivers from the natural
variability of the system or high-frequency
processes
→ most of the GHG-induced excess energy is stored
in the sub-surface ocean, requiring proper
measurement and analysis
➢ Mediterranean amplification of the climatic signals stand out
when compared with global average trends
➢ The sea-ice decline is a notable example of complex
feedback mechanisms occurring in the Earth’s climate
katrin.schroeder@ismar.cnr.it
Grazie per l’attenzione.CNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.it
References
Marullo S., B. Buongiorno Nardelli, M. Guarracino, and R. Santoleri (2006). Observing The Mediterranean Sea from Space:
21 years of Pathfinder-AVHRR Sea Surface Temperatures (1985 to 2005). Re-analysis and validation. Ocean Science, 3,
299-310, 2007.
Marullo, S. V. Artale, R. Santoleri (2011). The SST multi-decadal variability in the Atlantic-Mediterranean region and its
relation to AMO. J. of Climate, Volume 24, Issue 16 (August 2011) pp. 4385-4401, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3884.1.
Minnett, P.J., Alvera-Azcárate, A., Chin, T.M., Corlett, G.K., Gentemann, C.L., Karagali, I., Li, X., Marsouin, A., Marullo, S.,
Maturi, E. and Santoleri, R., 2019. Half a century of satellite remote sensing of sea-surface temperature. Remote Sensing
of Environment, 233, p.111366.
Meyssignac B, et al. (2019) Measuring Global Ocean Heat Content to Estimate the Earth Energy Imbalance. Front. Mar. Sci.
6:432. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00432
Pisano, A., Marullo, S., Artale, V., Falcini, F., Yang, C., Leonelli, F. E., ... & Buongiorno Nardelli, B. (2020). New evidence
of mediterranean climate change and variability from sea surface temperature observations. Remote Sensing, 12(1), 132
.
Rosalia Santoleri Istituto di direttore@ismar.cnr.it
Direttore ISMAR Scienze Marine rosalia.santoleri@cnr.itCNR DSSTTA ISMAR - IAS - IRBIM
www.cnr.it www.dta.cnr.it www.ricercamarina.it
References
Schroeder, K., Chiggiato, J., Josey, S. A., Borghini, M., Aracri, S., & Sparnocchia, S. (2017). Rapid response to climate change
in a marginal sea. Scientific Reports, 7(1), 1-7
Storto, A., Balmaseda, M. A., de Boisseson, E., Giese, B. S., Masina, S., & Yang, C. (2021). The 20th century global warming
signature on the ocean at global and basin scales as depicted from historical reanalyses. International Journal of Climatology, 1–
21. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7163
von Schuckmann et al. (2021) Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 5, Journal of Operational
Oceanography, 14:sup1, 1-185, DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2021.1946240
von Schuckmann, et al..: Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020.
Yang, C., Masina, S. and Storto, A. (2017), Historical ocean reanalyses (1900–2010) using different data assimilation strategies.
Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 143: 479-493. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2936
Yang, C., Leonelli, F. E., Marullo, S., Artale, V., Beggs, H., Nardelli, B. B., Chin, T. M., De Toma, V., Good, S., Huang, B.,
Merchant, C. J., Sakurai, T., Santoleri, R., Vazquez-Cuervo, J., Zhang, H., & Pisano, A. (2021). Sea Surface Temperature
Intercomparison in the Framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Journal of Climate, 34(13), 5257-5283
Rosalia Santoleri Istituto di direttore@ismar.cnr.it
Direttore ISMAR Scienze Marine rosalia.santoleri@cnr.itYou can also read
