Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020-2025 - Analysys Mason document
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Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
Pay TV and OTT video in
Western Europe: trends and
forecasts 2020–2025
Martin Scott, Alex Boisot and Rémy Giraud
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025 2
About this report
This report provides: G E O G RAPHICAL C O V ERAG E K E Y M E T R ICS
▪ forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, Region modelled: ▪ Pay-TV households and
the number of premium OTT video users, their retail revenue ▪ Western Europe (WE) connections
(spend) and average spend per user (ASPU) ▪ OTT video users
Countries modelled individually ▪ Retail revenue (spend)
▪ forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and (additional in-depth coverage is
digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite (DTH) and operator OTT;1 provided for those in bold): ▪ ASPU
operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by category of OTT ▪ Austria Pay TV is split by the following
video service: linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), ▪ Belgium access technologies:
TVoD (ownership) and SVoD ▪ Denmark ▪ cable (analogue and digital,
▪ Finland CATV)
▪ forecasts for 16 individual countries and Western Europe as ▪ France
a whole, with additional in-depth coverage for 5 countries. ▪ IPTV
▪ Germany
▪ pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)
W HO S H O U L D R E A D T HI S R E P O RT ▪ Greece
▪ satellite (DTH)
▪ Ireland
▪ Product and strategy managers within pay-TV providers and operators ▪ operator OTT1
who require market sizing for business planning purposes, as well as an ▪ Italy
overview of the key trends that are affecting the market in order to help ▪ Netherlands ▪ third-party (non-operator) OTT
them to develop propositions accordingly. ▪ Norway
OTT video is split as follows:
▪ Business development managers within vendors of video solutions who ▪ Portugal
need to assess the size of the opportunity for their products and ▪ Spain ▪ linear – channels (paid-for and
services. free)
▪ Sweden
▪ Financial analysts who need to understand the dynamics and the size of ▪ Switzerland ▪ linear – events
the pay-TV market and its interaction with OTT video services. ▪ UK ▪ TVoD – (rental and ownership)
▪ SVoD (paid-for and free)
1The full definition of the term ‘Operator OTT’ is articulated in the appendix at the end of this report. In short, this term refers to
OTT video services offered by telecoms operators and also by pay-TV providers that have previously provided traditional pay-TV
services.
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025 3
An introduction to the terms and definitions used in this forecast report
The pay-TV market is in the middle of a reconfiguration: service Furthermore, multi-screen services (for example,
categories are changing, and terms such as ‘connections’ and unmanaged IP services that are sold alongside traditional
‘subscribers’ (which fit into broadcast TV services reasonably pay-TV services to diversify the ways that consumers view
well) do not apply as well to OTT services. This forecast provides content) are not included in ‘OTT services’. Revenue for such
multiple category splits that aid different purposes, such as services is attributed to the associated traditional pay-TV
understanding the role of existing pay-TV providers versus new service.
OTT entrants, the scale of on-demand consumption versus live
▪ Operator OTT. The full definition of this term is articulated in
streaming and whether the mode of purchase is transactional or
the appendix. In short, this refers to OTT video services
subscription-based. As such, detailed articulation of the terms
offered by telecoms operators and also by pay-TV providers
used and the categorisations made is required in order to provide
that have previously provided traditional pay-TV services.
full clarity. Further detail regarding these assumptions, terms and
our methodology can be found at the end of this report. ▪ Third-party OTT. This refers to services offered by OTT video
providers that have not offered traditional pay-TV services in
Key terms and conventions used in this report
a country in the past. This includes, for example, Amazon,
▪ ‘Traditional’ versus ‘OTT’. ‘Traditional’ services refer to TV DAZN and Netflix. It also includes Sky’s OTT service in Spain
services delivered over a managed network that provide a (where it launched an OTT service in 2018, but had not
known and predictable latency and quality of broadcast previously offered a traditional pay-TV service).
content. ‘Traditional’ access technologies include the sum of
▪ Connections and users. Consumers may subscribe to
services carried over IPTV, cable, DTH and pay DTT.
multiple traditional pay-TV services and use multiple OTT
▪ OTT services. These are TV or video services that are services at once. This makes the process of forecasting
delivered over an unmanaged IP connection, known as ‘the users and revenue complex. This forecast allows for multiple
open internet’. In this report, we use this term as a traditional pay-TV subscriptions by articulating both the
contraction of ‘premium OTT services’, which are services number of pay-TV ‘households’ and the number of
that generate transactional or subscription revenue, not ‘connections’. For OTT, this report forecasts ‘users’ of
exclusively advertising revenue. This means that services particular types of services; a single user may use multiple
such as the free YouTube service are not included, but a services, and this is reflected in higher spend assumptions
free trial to Netflix is included. for each user.
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025 13
The pandemic affected satellite the most out of all traditional pay-TV technologies in
terms of revenue; overall traditional pay-TV ASPU will fall by 5% in 2020
Figure 12: Pay-TV connections, operator OTT users and ASPU by The total number of traditional pay-TV subscriptions fell for the
access technology, Western Europe, 2017–2025 first time in 2020, by 405 000 (year-on-year) to 117.9 million. The
pandemic did not significantly accelerate this decline, despite the
major disruption to sports-related broadcasts. However, the
pandemic did affect retail revenue for traditional pay-TV services
(ASPU fell by 5% year-on-year in 2020) and operator OTT services
(the number of users fell by 2 million year-on-year). Both of these
declines may be attributed to the disruption to sports content.
Satellite suffered the most significantly of all traditional pay-TV
access technologies. ASPU fell by EUR2.0 in 2020, as well as by
EUR0.4 over the course of 2019. The prospects for satellite are
waning; we anticipate that the number of subscriptions will
decline by 3.9 million between 2020 and 2025.
Cable TV is often sold without exclusive sports content and it
therefore did not suffer the same level of revenue decline in 2020
(ASPU was EUR0.7 lower in 2020 than in 2019). However, the
overall trend for cable TV subscriptions is still one of decline. This
is partly due to the continued shut-down of low-value analogue
services, which is scheduled for 2020 in both the Netherlands
and Sweden (at least for ComHem’s customers).
IPTV will continue to gain popularity during the forecast period.
Connections: All cable Pay DTT DTH IPTV Operator OTT
The recession triggered by the pandemic is likely to encourage
ASPU: some customer migration from more-expensive technologies to
IPTV.
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025 17
France: SVoD accounts for the majority of OTT video revenue, but linear channels
have become very popular in 2020; their future depends on sports rights
The number of SVoD service users will double to 15.5 million by OTT VIDEO MARKET KPIs 2025
2025. This will be driven by continued growth in the number of
subscribers to Netflix (which gained 1.5 million subscribers in
France in the 10 months to February 2019 and also gained
subscribers during the pandemic). Disney+ (which was launched
slightly later than planned, in June 2020) will also play a role. €
$ 19.3
Revenue and the number of users for linear services grew rapidly
in 2020 due to the success of SFR’s RMC Sport. However, many MILLION
21.0
of SFR’s sports rights expire in 2021, which means that the PER MONTH
number of subscribers may fall again in 2021, depending on
whether negotiations with Mediapro include streaming rights, or if
Canal+ launches a sports-centric OTT service.
Figure 15: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Figure 16: Number of users by service type, France, 2017–
France, 2017–2025 2025
1Includes paying users of OTT video services but also users on free trials of paid-for services and customers that gain inclusive
access to an otherwise paid-for service as a result of a bundle with, for example, telecoms services.
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
Contents Executive summary
Regional trends
Country-level trends
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025 31
About the authors
Martin Scott (Principal Analyst) heads Analysys Mason's research initiatives related to media and TV. He manages the Video, Gaming and
Entertainment research programme. Martin has held numerous positions within Analysys Mason during the last 15 years, including heading the
company's Consumer Services, Data and Regional Markets practices. He also launched Analysys Mason's Connected Consumer Survey and
Consumer smartphone usage series of research. His primary areas of specialisation include telecoms TV strategy, OTT video and media,
consumer behaviour, customer satisfaction and consumer-facing marketing strategy. He also specialises in statistics, surveys and the analysis
of primary research. He has a Master's degree in Mathematics from Oxford University.
Alex Boisot (Analyst) is a member of the Regional Markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market Matrix and
European Country Reports research programmes. Alex holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of East Anglia. He
conducted research on the impact of telecoms technologies on modern societies during his studies, writing his dissertation on e-government
and e-democracy. He has also worked on the development of a mobile game aiming to teach users the basic principles of physics.
Rémy Giraud (Senior Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Americas research programme, and as a member of the regional markets
research team in London, contributes mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global
Telecoms Data research programmes. Rémy holds a BSc in economics from the London School of Economics (LSE), and holds an MSc in Risk
and Finance from EDHEC Business School.
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025 32
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING
We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms
industry:
▪ communications and digital service providers, vendors,
financial and strategic investors, private equity and
infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters,
and service and content providers.
Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges
facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.
We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges
and opportunities that new technology brings.
RESEARCH
Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different
services accessed by consumers and enterprises.
We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and
technology delivering those services.
Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct
access to analysts.
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025 33 Research from Analysys Mason
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025 34 Consulting from Analysys Mason
Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN SEPTEMBER 2020
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