PLAY THE LONG GAME - Bayleys

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PLAY THE LONG GAME - Bayleys
Photo credit: The Hotel Britomart

                                   HOTELS
                                 P L AY T H E
                                L ONG GA M E
                                                               ———
             WITH NEW ZEALAND’S USUALLY POROUS BORDERS CLOSED TO INTERNATIONAL
            TOURISTS FOR NOW, THE HOTEL SECTOR IS FACING UNPARALLELED DISRUPTION
                          – BUT THE DOMESTIC MARKET IS STEPPING UP.
                                                               ———

LESS THAN A YEAR AGO, TOURISM WAS             was seen in the traditional tourist hotspot   support business in the interim.
New Zealand’s number one export earner        Queenstown – down 32 percent, while the         Meanwhile, SkyCity's long-awaited
on the back of escalating visitor arrivals.   lowest decline was for central New Zealand    International Convention Centre in
   It is sobering to look at those arrival    including Taupo, Taumarunui, Ruapehu,         Auckland is now expected to be
numbers now in the midst of a global          Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, down an             completed by mid-2023, and its
pandemic, with our borders still closed       average 10 percent. Likewise, revenue         associated Horizon Hotel has deferred
to all but returning Kiwis and a handful      per available room (RevPAR) has declined      opening until mid-2022.
of others.                                    most in Queenstown, and least in central        Bayleys’ director hotels and tourism
   For the month of August in the years       New Zealand.                                  Paul Dixon, says for the 30-plus hotels
2010-2019, overseas arrivals averaged           After minimal investment in the hotel       designated as Government-run managed
187,648, peaking in 2019 with 251,131         sector in the last decade, new-build          isolation and quarantine facilities
arrivals. According to NZ Customs data,       activity around the country had started to    throughout the country, and used
this dropped to just 11,483 arrivals in       pick-up prior to the COVID-19 outbreak –      exclusively for returning residents,
September 2020.                               mainly focused on Auckland, Wellington,       the associated guaranteed income
   Naturally, this has translated into        Christchurch, and Queenstown.                 has been welcome.
significant drops in hotel occupancy            Despite the uncertainty 2020 has dished       “Particularly as accommodation
with an average 24 percent decline in         up, The Hotel Britomart, Park Hyatt           providers were overlooked in the
average national occupancy for the year       Auckland, Travelodge Wynyard Quarter and      Government's $400 million Tourism
ending September 2020, according to           QT Auckland opened recently in Auckland       Recovery Package.
Hotel NZ data.                                – not exactly the optimal time to do so,        “But while those isolation hotels
   Unsurprisingly, the greatest drop off      but with hopes that domestic tourism will     have covered overheads and mitigated

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PLAY THE LONG GAME - Bayleys
some of the losses other hotels are              two countries, but Kiwis and Australians      applying deferral periods until normal
absorbing, in the bigger picture, it’s a small   are itching to travel again, and our hotel    trading may resume.”
proportion of accommodation stock.”              operators want to host them.                     Privately-owned New Zealand family
   Dixon says pre-COVID-19, the domestic            “Australians may not be able to visit      business Safari Group, has been successfully
market made up around 55 percent of New          Asia, the UK or Europe for quite some time    developing and building mixed-use hotel/
Zealand hotel occupancy, and the push for        yet, so New Zealand would be an appealing     apartment complexes and stand-alone hotel
New Zealanders to support local and see          and accessible option.”                       projects around New Zealand for 25 years.
more of their ‘backyard’ went some way              Dixon says until a vaccine is available,      Director of the Safari Group of
to providing business to hotels once the         or border issues can be safely addressed,     companies, Damien Taylor, says it currently
country went to level 1.                         it will be hard to sustain the value in       has three hotel/mixed-use developments
   “Hotels in Queenstown have certainly          hotel property.                               under construction – Ramada Newmarket,
worn the brunt of the international tourist         “However, New Zealand’s inherent           Ramada Wellington and LQ Kawarau River
tap being turned off and Auckland’s return       tourism credentials will endure, and          Queenstown – and there has been minimal,
to level 3 lockdown didn’t help, having          investors, hotel asset owners, and offshore   if any, disruption to the delivery dates.
a major impact on the South Island ski           funders recognise this.”                         “We were tracking ahead of programme
season trade.”                                      Bayleys national director of               before COVID-19 struck, so could absorb the
   Australia and New Zealand remain              valuations and advisory, Carl Waalkens,       delays caused from the level 4 lockdown,”
committed to establishing travel bubbles.        says a two-tiered market may emerge           he says.
New Zealanders are now being welcomed            post-COVID, with regional tourism                “Since lockdown, we have gone
back to some Australian states, but the          assets such as budget and motel               unconditional on a site in Ellerslie for
arrangement is not being reciprocated            accommodation being better positioned         a $150 million hotel/apartment
by us, with the second wave of the               to withstand value decline due to             development and committed to a $35
virus centred on Melbourne followed              stronger levels of domestic tourism.          million existing heritage building in
by Auckland’s resurgence, turning the               “In contrast, hotels positioned towards    Wellington for conversion to a 5-star
potential wider bubble clock back.               international tourism are receiving little    Tryp by Wyndham hotel.
   Dixon says the hotel sector needs the         reprieve from reduced tourist numbers            “We have parked the proposed Tryp
trans-Tasman bubble more than ever.              resulting in challenging investment           by Wyndham Queenstown for now
   “The resumption of trans-Tasman               parameters, hence valuers will be             while the Queenstown market recovers,
sport has been a good morale boost and           contemplating reduced cashflow forecasts      but we’re still very much charging
demonstrates the inter-relationship of the       and occupancy rates while perhaps             ahead elsewhere.”

                                                                                                                       New Zealand's first
                                                                                                                       5 Green Star Hotel,
                                                                                                                       The Hotel Britomart
                                                                                                                       opened in Auckland
                                                                                                                       on October 1st.

                                                                                                                       Left and bottom right
                                                                                                                       Lobby Lane. Top right
                                                                                                                       Takutai View Room.
                                                                                                                       Photo credits: The
                                                                                                                       Hotel Britomart

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Artist's impression: LQ Hotel, Ellerslie - Safari Group

                                                                                   Artist's impression: Double Tree by Hilton
                                                                                   Wellington - Sarin Investments

 Artist's impression: Ramada Queenstown Central - Safari Group                     The Muse Christchurch Art Hotel - Sarin Investments

   Taylor says Safari Group has full                         “Secondly, do not be overexposed to            as people try out new destinations.
confidence that the sector will bounce                    debt and thirdly, location remains crucial           “We opened our new The Muse
back and its actively looking for more                    to success in the hotel sector.”                  Christchurch Art Hotel, a boutique 40-room
development opportunities across the                         With properties including Proximity            hotel in a restored heritage building in
country believing that “out of adversity,                 Apartments Manukau, Double Tree                   Manchester Street in mid-September and we’re
comes opportunity”.                                       by Hilton Wellington, Holiday Inn                 delighted with the way it’s been received.
   Udai Sarin, chief executive officer for                Queenstown and Ibis Styles by Accor in               “It’s a good product with great service
the Sarin Hotel Group which represents                    Invercargill under its ownership and/             and is not in the cookie cutter-style, so there’s
a number of well-known global brands in                   or management, Sarin Investments                  niche appeal and that’s working well for us.”
the accommodation market nationwide,                      has survived the pandemic disruptions                Sarin Group also has several new
says he’d describe the current pulse of                   without any Government-managed social             development projects in the pipeline, with
the hotel sector as “still uncertain, yet                 housing or managed isolation contracts.           those that had commenced prior to New
more positive”.                                              The Queenstown Holiday Inn in                  Zealand going into full lockdown proceeding,
   “It’s like we’re halfway up Everest –                  Frankton was the only facility Sarin Group        and those not yet underway pushed back by
doing the very best we can with the hand                  temporarily shuttered when New Zealand            at least 12 months.
we’ve been dealt and we’re seeing more                    went into complete lockdown and Sarin                COVID-19 has had the upside of forcing
confidence from the market now that alert                 says that market is still suffering.              hotel owners/managers to take a long, hard
levels have been relaxed nationwide.                         “There’s so much hotel and other               look at their business models.
   “There’s been an increase in activity                  accommodation stock in Queenstown so                 Sarin says its self-contained serviced
from domestic travellers, the government                  until the international tourism market            apartment offerings proved the most
sector and the corporate market as life                   opens up again, it’s likely to be a slow          adaptable throughout the pandemic
reboots after restrictions.”                              haul there.”                                      environment, being easier to transfer
   Sarin says the COVID-19 outbreak and                      Sarin says once domestic travellers            into longer-stay accommodation
associated response crystallised three very               have ticked off the hero destinations             where required.
important fundamentals for the company.                   like Queenstown, the secondary                       “If COVID has taught us anything
   “Firstly, always have a Plan B                         destinations like Hawke’s Bay, New                at a base level, it’s everybody has to
and C for your business so as to                          Plymouth and Invercargill get airtime             live somewhere, and everybody has to
pivot quickly in tough times.                             and there are regional trends emerging            eat something.”

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