Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism? - Revista ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
doi:10.5477/cis/reis.169.123
Political Leadership and Local Elections:
Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
Liderazgo político y elecciones municipales:
¿nacionalización, regionalización o localismo?
Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López
Key words Abstract
Local Elections Municipal elections have traditionally been conceptualized as subordi-
• Political Leaders nate to the national political situation, and thus considered second-or-
• Localism der elections. However, voters could take into account national, regional
• Nationalisation or specifically local factors in determining their vote in these elections.
• Regionalisation Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the electoral impact of
these factors through political leadership. Thus, using binary logistic
regression, we examine and confirm the impact of national, regional and
local leaders in the municipal vote in the Autonomous Region of Anda-
lusia. The results show that local candidates have a greater impact on
municipal elections than national and regional leaders, so local elections
have their own autonomy.
Palabras clave Resumen
Elecciones municipales Las elecciones municipales han sido tradicionalmente conceptualizadas
• Líderes políticos como unas convocatorias de segundo orden, estando así supeditadas a
• Localismo la situación política nacional. Sin embargo, los electores podrían tener en
• Nacionalización cuenta factores nacionales, regionales o propiamente locales para definir
• Regionalización su voto en estas convocatorias. Por ello, el objetivo de este estudio es
examinar la incidencia electoral de dichos factores a través del liderazgo
político. Así, se comprueba el efecto de los líderes nacionales, regionales
y locales en el voto municipal en el ámbito de la comunidad autónoma
de Andalucía. Se utiliza como técnica de análisis la regresión logística
binaria. Los resultados muestran que los candidatos locales tienen un
mayor impacto en las elecciones municipales que los líderes nacionales
y regionales, de modo que las consultas locales tendrían una autonomía
propia.
Citation
Ortega-Villodres, Carmen and Recuero-López, Fátima (2020). “Political Leadership and Local Elections:
Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?”. Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 169:
123-142. (http://dx.doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.169.123)
Carmen Ortega-Villodres: Universidad de Granada | cortega@ugr.es
Fátima Recuero-López: Universidad de Granada | frecuero@ugr.es
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142124 Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
Introduction autonomy in municipal elections, and that it
is local and not national factors that are taken
Local elections have occupied a secondary into account in voting decisions (Brugué and
place in electoral research (Capó 1991; Del- Gomà, 1998; Rallings and Thrasher, 1993;
gado, 2010) in comparison with elections at Deschouwer, 1994; Blais et al., 2003; Marien
other levels, such as national or regional. et al., 2015). In addition, the growing interde-
This is due, among other reasons, to the lo- pendence between different levels of govern-
cal arena being considered a political sphere ment (Thorlakson, 2006), along with the
that lacks sufficient autonomy; which has strengthening of both regional (van Biezen
even led to the questioning of the local char- and Hopkin, 2006; Schakel and Jeffery, 2013)
acter of municipal elections (Curtice and and local spheres (Brugué and Gomà, 1998),
Payne, 1991; McLean et al., 1996; Heath et could mean that voters may be taking criteria
al., 1999; Quinlivan and Weeks, 2010). With- pertaining to all the political arenas into ac-
in a segment of the academic literature, they count when they vote.
are considered as second order elections Consequently, the arguments for nation-
under the influence of the national political alisation, regionalisation and localism have
situation (Reif and Schmitt, 1980). As a con- generated a deep theoretical debate regard-
sequence, the study of municipal elections ing the criteria and factors that voters use in
has been dominated by the theory of nation- deciding whom to vote for in municipal elec-
alisation. From this perspective, it is argued tions. However, the majority of studies adopt
that the electorate vote in municipal elec- an aggregate perspective, which does not
tions based on factors relevant to the na- allow us to identify the factors that condition
tional sphere (Capó, 1991; Thomsen, 1998; voting behaviour at the individual level
Delgado, 1999), consistent with the second (Martínez and Ortega, 2010; Riera et al.
order election model (Reif and Schmitt, 2017). This is particularly striking in research
1980; McLean et al., 1996; Heath et al., on nationalisation in municipal elections, as
1999). the fact that national parties dominate mu-
This consolidated theoretical perspective nicipal political competition does not neces-
is now the object of revision. New perspec- sarily imply that local factors are not involved
tives are questioning the primacy of national in individuals’ voting decision, especially if
politics on the local sphere, as factors spe- local political leaders are considered (Rall-
cific to other geographic levels have been ings and Thrasher, 1993; Marien et al., 2015).
acquiring importance in this sphere as well. In the Spanish context, there are few studies
First, due to its great importance in Spain’s that specifically analyse the influence of po-
political reality, it is suggested that the re- litical leadership in the local sphere, a para-
gional component is reducing the hegemony doxical issue due to the greater personalisa-
of national parties in the local arena. As a tion of politics that tends to be attributed to
result, regionalisation could also be present the municipal arena (Carrillo, 1989), as well
at the local level (Carrillo, 1989; Delgado, as to the growing electoral importance of
1998). Secondly, other authors defend the leaders with the decline of the traditional
idea that local politics have been revitalised, conditioners of the vote (Mackie and Frank-
as it is configured as the best arena for ad- lin, 1992; Knutsen, 1998; Dalton, 2000).
dressing new and growing demands of pop- Among these, the studies by Delgado (1999),
ulations in a context of globalisation. This Barreiro and Jaraiz (2013), Martínez and Or-
would mean, in opposition to the arguments tega (2010) and Riera et al. (2017) stand out.
for the nationalisation of local politics, that In this context, the objective of this article
the local sphere has its own importance and is to analyse the different degree of national-
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López 125
isation, regionalisation and localism in mu- there is less at stake in them1. This means
nicipal elections at the individual level. In that in local elections, due to their lesser im-
particular, we analyse the impact of national, portance, voters make their voting choice
regional and local political leaders on the considering existing circumstances in the
2011 and 2015 municipal elections in Anda- national political arena. As a result, according
lusia. The Andalusian context as the setting to this perspective, factors relevant to other
for our analysis is justified for two main rea- governing levels, specifically the national, are
sons. First, Andalusia is one of the four Au- determinant. In fact, diverse studies have
revealed the secondary character of local
tonomous Regions in Spain where local elec-
elections (McLean et al., 1996; Heath et al.,
tions do not take place simultaneously with
1999; Curtice and Payne; 1991; Delgado,
regional elections, so the effects of “contam-
2010; Quinlivan and Weeks, 2010), finding
ination” are reduced. Secondly, and for
that it is national factors that have deter-
methodological reasons, Andalusia is the mined the vote (McLean et al., 1996; Heath
only region where survey data exists that in- et al., 1999).
cludes variables related to political leader-
Along these lines, and particularly in
ship on the three different geographic levels,
Spain, academic contributions to the study
provided in this case by the Centro de Análi-
of municipal elections reveal a high level of
sis y Documentación Política y Electoral de nationalisation2. Primarily through aggre-
Andalucía (CADPEA). gate analyses, it has been found that nation-
With this aim, first we examine the theo- al political parties control municipal rep-
retical postulates of nationalisation, regional- resentation to the detriment and decline of
isation and localism in regard to municipal truly local candidatures. The high level of
elections. Secondly, we review studies on the representation of national parties in the mu-
impact of political leadership on these types nicipal sphere implies that national interests
of elections and introduce our main working are imposed over local ones, as there is
hypotheses. Thirdly, we carry out an analysis great consistency between municipal and
at the aggregate level of the degree of na- national elections, both in terms of results
and in terms of the resulting party systems
tionalisation, regionalisation and localism in
at each level of government (Carrillo, 1989;
the two municipal elections in Andalusia.
Capó, 1991; Curtice and Payne, 1991; Bru-
Fourthly, we present the methodology used
gué and Gomà, 1998; Thomsen, 1998; Del-
in the analysis of the effect of leaders on the
gado, 1999, 2010; Quinlivan and Weeks,
vote at the individual level and our results.
2010). In addition, studies show that the
Lastly, we present our conclusions. nationalisation of the local sphere has been
strengthened over time, so that national pol-
Nationalisation, regionalisation
and localism in municipal 1 Second order elections are characterised by lower
elections levels of participation than first order (national) elections,
by better results for small and new parties, and by the
Municipal elections have traditionally been loss of votes for the governing party (Reif and Schmitt,
1980).
examined through the lens of the nationalisa-
2 Concretely, in the Spanish case, national political par-
tion thesis and the second order election ties colonized the new local political system that emerged
model. According to this paradigm devel- after the processes of democratisation and decentrali-
sation. This was fostered by institutional design, which
oped by Reif and Schmitt (1980), all non-na- created obstacles for the formation and success of spe-
tional elections are second order elections as cifically local parties and candidatures (Botella, 1992).
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142126 Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
itics increasingly dominates local political tional parties in municipal elections (Marien
arenas (Carrillo, 1989; Capó, 1991; Delga- et al., 2015).
do, 1998). Therefore, from this perspective, Within the framework of this theoretical
the municipal level becomes a new space controversy on the impact of nationalisation
for political and electoral competition and localism in the municipal sphere, a new
among national political parties (Carrillo, current has emerged that argues for interde-
1989; Delgado, 1999). These findings lead pendence between levels of government
to the conclusion that voters use these elec- (Thorlakson, 2006). From this perspective,
tions as a means to express opinions re- voters may be motivated by factors of any
garding national politics, as votes are decid- political arena when deciding on their vote
ed using national criteria and not factors of in a specific electoral process (Bechtel,
a local character. 2012), as there is an overlap among the dif-
However, new studies have begun to ferent geographic levels. As a result, individ-
emerge that question the secondary char- uals could decide on their vote in municipal
acter of municipal elections and, therefore, elections based on national, regional and/or
the postulates of nationalisation, particular- local factors. Along these lines, some au-
ly given the lack of studies that confirm the thors have suggested that a tendency to-
arguments of nationalisation on the individ- ward the regionalisation of local politics ex-
ual level and in the face of growing compe- ists, due to the presence of regionalist and
tition in the local arena. As a result, there nationalist parties (Carrillo, 1989; Delgado,
has been increased academic interest in the 1999). Thus, this push toward regionalisa-
importance of local issues on municipal pol- tion could limit the nationalisation of the mu-
itics. In this sense, Brugué and Gomá (1998) nicipal arena and the penetration of state
argue that in the Spanish context the na- level parties4.
tionalisation thesis is being substituted for In short, nationalisation, regionalisation
one of localism, as local governments have and localism could coexist in the local polit-
acquired greater autonomy3, contributing to ical arena, making it necessary to determine
a revitalisation of local politics and issues. which of these tendencies prevails, although
This argument is also found at the compar- not (necessarily) being exclusive. In this
ative level where nationalisation is also los- sense, the majority of studies that have ad-
ing ground (Claggett et al., 1984), despite dressed these issues focus on analysing the
local reforms established to merge and re- electoral support that national, regional and
duce municipalities (Deschouwer, 1994). local parties receive in municipal elections
Regarding these arguments in favour of lo- at the aggregate level. However, the identi-
calism, other authors argue that citizens fication of voting motives requires an analy-
may vote in municipal elections motivated sis at the individual level to determine if na-
by specifically local factors and not based tional, regional and/or local factors condition
on national criteria (Rallings and Thrasher, the vote in these types of elections. Among
1993; Cutler, 2008) even if they choose na- these factors, we consider, given their grow-
ing importance, the influence of national,
regional and local leaders on municipal
3 The strengthening of local governments is a conse- elections.
quence of the increase in the services they provide in
a context of increasing citizen demands and globalisa-
tion, both phenomena that locate the local sphere as
the most adequate to face and resolve problems de- 4 Regionalisation has also been operationalised at the
rived from them due to its closeness to the population aggregate level through electoral support for regionalist
(Brugué and Gomá, 1998). parties.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López 127
The impact of political isation of the municipal arena could lead to
leadership in municipal local candidates having a greater impact.
elections Along these lines, different studies confirm
that voters can split their votes in general and
If, as pointed out before, municipal elections municipal elections; in other words, choose
have not been a preferred object of study in a candidate in the local election from a party
electoral research (Capó, 1991; Delgado, different from the one they vote for in the na-
2010), the study of the impact of leadership tional election because they know the can-
on them is an issue that has been even more didate personally (Rallings and Thrasher,
ignored. There are practically no empirical 2003)5. Thus, one of the main reasons for
studies that analyse the impact of local can- split voting would be knowing the local can-
didates on municipal elections, and even didates (Marien et al., 2015). Consequently,
fewer in the Spanish case. The few referenc- local candidates of national formations may
es that can be found in this respect, are adopt an electoral strategy distancing them-
framed within studies examining local elec- selves from their own political party so that
tions from a more general perspective they are not disadvantaged in the case that
(Martínez and Ortega, 2010; Riera et al., their party is in a precarious position in the
2017). This is particularly paradoxical in a po- national political arena (Rallings and Thrasher,
litical arena with the nature the local level has 1993). Therefore, voters could vote for a na-
and in a context in which, due to the weak- tional level party in municipal elections but
ening of traditional conditioners of voting de- because of the specific local candidate (Ma-
cisions (Mackie and Franklin, 1992; Knutsen, rien et al., 2015), breaking with the argument
1998; Dalton, 2000), leadership is acquiring of nationalisation and the second order elec-
greater importance in voting (Rico, 2009). tion model, suggesting greater personalisa-
The nationalisation thesis and the second tion in the local sphere.
order election model assume that local can- The relevance of local leadership in voting
didates have practically no influence on the is evident in the Canadian context, where
vote in municipal elections, as specifically even local candidates running on party lists
local factors are not an object of considera- in different districts for federal elections had
tion (Claggett et al., 1984; Carrillo, 1989; Del- an impact on the vote (Cunningham, 1971;
gado, 1998; Thomsen, 1998). Hence, the Blais et al., 2003). Marien et al. (2015) also
argument is that national leaders have great- found this to be the case in Belgium, as the
er impact than local candidates in municipal importance of local candidates in the munic-
elections, as voters base their vote on factors ipal sphere meant that voters did not take
of the national political arena. These postu- into account considerations of a national
lates were confirmed by Delgado (1999) in character in municipal elections. In Spain,
examining the 1995 municipal elections in and in contrast to the studies mentioned on
Spain, as national leaders had a significant nationalisation, Barreiro and Jaráiz (2013)
effect on the results, while local candidates found, in examining local elections in Galicia,
were found to have had no importance in de- that national leaders did not have an impor-
termining voting behaviour. tant impact on the vote, while strictly local
Questioning the nationalisation of local
politics (Brugué and Gomá, 1998) and the
second order nature of municipal elections is 5 This split voting in many cases favours candidates from
based on a consideration that local issues strictly local parties and candidatures (Waller, 1980), so
that independent local leaders are at less of a disadvan-
can be at the forefront of citizens’ electoral tage in municipal elections in relation to local leaders
motivations (Marien et al., 2015). The revital- from national parties (Quinlivan, 2015).
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142128 Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
candidates did. Riera et al. (2017) came to However, there are no studies either at
similar conclusions. the comparative level or specifically regard-
However, nationalisation and localism are ing Spain that examine the comparative
not necessarily mutually exclusive in regard impact of national, regional and local lead-
to voters’ motivations (Delgado, 1999; Clark ers on the vote in municipal elections. The
and Rohrschneider, 2009). Therefore, from actual impact of regional leaders on local
this perspective, both national and local elections has never been measured. In ad-
leaders could impact the vote in municipal dition, the majority of studies that present
elections, making it necessary to determine findings on the effect of national and local
the influence of both. In this sense, Martínez leaders on municipal election results have
used the aggregate level, with a few excep-
and Ortega (2010) suggest that the 2007 mu-
tions, such as the studies of Delgado (1999)
nicipal elections in Andalusia had both a na-
and Martínez and Ortega (2010). The few
tional and local character, with both nation-
studies that have looked at the individual
alisation and localism coexisting. In this case
level lack specific variables regarding vot-
it would be necessary to take into account
ers’ evaluations of political leaders at the
that the impact of national and local factors
three levels, as there is an absence of em-
could be relatively stable or conditioned by
pirical survey data. As a result, this article
the context (Rallings and Thrasher, 1993,
intends to contribute to expanding current
2003), in other words, by the type of issues
knowledge on the impact of political leader-
(national, regional or local) that had the most
ship on municipal elections, carrying out an
importance during the campaign (Delgado,
analysis at the individual level to determine
1999; Quinlivan and Weeks, 2010). Quinlivan
the effect of national, regional and local
and Weeks show, in regard to Ireland, that
leaders on the vote in municipal elections,
when a specific party focuses their cam-
focusing on the case of Andalusia.
paign on the local arena due to their poor
Our initial working hypothesis is based on
position in the national arena, the local can-
the thesis of interdependence, that is, that
didate will be more important to the voters of
the vote can be influenced by factors related
this party.
to different levels of government. In this
Due to this interdependence across the sense, hypothesis 1 is the following:
different political arenas (Thorlakson, 2006)
— National, regional and local leaders im-
and the mentioned regionalisation of local
pact the vote in municipal elections.
politics (Carrillo, 1989; Delgado, 1999), re-
gional factors can also be an object of con- Our second, more specific hypothesis,
sideration in the municipal vote. As a result, and based on the literature, is the following:
regional leaders could also have influence on — National and regional leaders impact the
the vote in local elections, which makes vote in municipal elections, but the influ-
sense given the important degree of regional ence of local leaders is greater, especially
autonomy and competencies acquired by in smaller municipalities.
regions in western countries (van-Biezen and We have limited the present study to the
Hopkin, 2006; Cutler, 2008; Schakel and Autonomous Region of Andalusia. This is
Jeffery, 2013). The importance acquired by justified, as mentioned, for two important
the autonomous regional arena in Spain reasons. First, Andalusia is one of the four
places regional leaders in an important posi- autonomous regions in Spain (along with
tion; they are able, like their parties, to ex- Catalonia, Galicia and the Basque Country)
pand their influence to other political arenas where municipal elections are celebrated
(Delgado, 1999). separately from regional elections. This
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López 129
makes it possible to isolate voters’ motives tion of local elections at the regional level
in municipal elections with less risk of con- permits us to generalise the results found.
tamination due to the existence of concur- Lastly, we incorporated the municipal
rent elections of another type. Secondly, the elections in 2011 and 2015 to make possi-
Andalusian context is the only regional one ble their comparison. The inclusion of both
that permits us to examine the effect of elections also permits us to confirm the re-
leaders of the three governmental levels in liability of the results, as they refer to differ-
municipal elections at the individual level, ent political realities, due to a transforma-
due to methodological limitations in other tion in the electoral behaviour of citizens
places and the existence of post-electoral and consequently in the party system with
surveys carried out by the CADPEA incor- the appearance of new political formations
porating questions about the evaluation of in the 2015 elections.
national, regional and local leaders in the
context of the municipal elections in Anda-
lusia. In particular, we use the CADPEA data The 2011 and 2015 municipal
for the 2011 and 2015 elections (EGOPA elections in Andalusia
Verano 2011 and EGOPA Verano 2015). This In what follows, and in line with the majority
means locating the level of analysis in the of previous studies, we carry out an aggre-
regional sphere, which, although presenting gate analysis of the degree of nationalisation,
some limitations, also generates some im- regionalisation and localism in the 2011 and
portant methodological advantages. Thus, 2015 municipal elections in Andalusia. To do
although our analysis of municipal elections this we use the main indicator used in the
is not carried out in the context of one or majority of existing studies on the nationali-
more concrete municipalities, our examina- sation of local politics: the percentage of
GRAPH 1. Votes for national, regional and local parties in 2011 and 2015 municipal elections in Andalusia
(% candidatures)
86,02%
National parties
0,00%
6,00%
Regional parties
0,00%
7,98%
Local candidatures
0,00%
0,00% 20,00% 40,00% 60,00% 80,00% 100,00%
2011 2015
Source: By authors based on data from the Ministerio del Interior.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142130 Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
electoral support that national parties obtain didates in the municipal elections, which is
in comparison to local and regional parties. still a limited number.
Thus, in Graph 1 we see the percentages of The results confirm the major penetra-
the vote that parties in the national, regional tion of national formations in the local polit-
and local spheres received in the two munic- ical arena, which suggests that the Andalu-
ipal elections analysed. There are important sian municipal party system is strongly
differences in the two elections regarding nationalised. However, this does not mean
party competition. Concretely, the 2015 elec- that voters use mainly national criteria in de-
tion saw the participation of two new political ciding their vote; as discussed earlier, they
formations, Ciudadanos and Podemos6, that could be choosing national parties but
had earlier participated in regional election in based on local factors (Marien et al., 2015).
March of 20157. As a result, it is necessary to carry out an
Despite the different political context, we analysis at the individual level to determine
find no relevant differences in the percent- if Andalusian voters are motivated by na-
age of votes for national, regional and local tional, regional or local factors when voting
parties between the two elections. As shown in municipal elections and, if they are, to
in previous studies, there is a high level of what extent. We use political leadership as
nationalisation in the local political arena at the indicator.
the aggregate level. Thus, support for na- Before proceeding to our analysis, and to
tional political formations was above 80% in provide context, we will examine the percep-
both 2011 and 2015. As a result, the degree tion that voters had over what the issues
of aggregate regionalisation is very limited in were that dominated the electoral cam-
municipalities in Andalusia; only 6% of vot- paigns in their municipalities. We do this be-
ers chose regional parties in 2011 and only cause the types of issues (national, regional
3.98% in 20158. Regarding localism, the or local) that voters give the greatest atten-
specifically local parties and candidatures tion to during the campaign could condition
received 7.98% of the vote in 2011 and the criteria they use in deciding their votes
13.25% in 2015, the latter increase associ- (Rallings and Thrasher, 1993, 2003; Delgado,
ated with the participation of local candi- 1999; Quinlivan and Weeks, 2010). In this
dates linked to Podemos. Thus, a bit more sense, based on the data shown in Graph 2,
than one of every ten voters chose local can- we can see that 57.9% of voters in 2011 and
64.1% in 2015 were focused on local issues.
Those that considered the political debate
6 However, the local sphere is different from the regional during the campaign to have been monopo-
one, as reflected in the fact that these new formations lised by national issues made up only 22%
received less support in the municipal elections in aggre- of voters.
gate terms, though not in regard to certain concrete mu-
nicipalities, perhaps because of the impossibility to pre-
sent candidatures in all of the municipalities in the region.
7 It is necessary to point out that Podemos did not par- Methodology
ticipate in these elections as a national party, but its
smaller geographic bases were given the freedom to To analyse the effect of political leaders on the
present specifically local candidatures, although these
ultimately did have a connection to the national party.
vote in municipal elections in 2011 and 2015,
As a result, by presenting independent candidates in we used data from the EGOPA (Estudio Gen-
each municipality we have chosen to include them within eral de Opinión Pública de Andalucía) from the
the typology of local candidates in Graph 1.
CADPEA. In particular, we used the waves that
8 The decline from 2011 to 2015 was a result of a de-
cline in support for the Partido Andalucista, the main constituted the post-electoral studies for both
regional political formation. elections: EGOPA Verano 2011 (N=3200) and
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López 131
GRAPH 2. Issues on which the electoral campaign was focused in the 2011 and 2015 municipal elections in
Andalusia (percentage)
National Local Both equally Depends, sometimes NR/DK
one and sometimes
the other
Source: By authors based on data from EGOPA Verano 2011 and EGOPA Verano 2015.
EGOPA Verano 2015 (N=1200). We use binary vote PSOE” and “vote IU versus vote PSOE”.
logistic regression to carry out our analysis. Given the two elections analysed, this results
This technique permits us to examine the fac- in eight logistical regression models (four with-
tors that impact on two opposed phenomena. out interaction and four with interaction).
In this case, we analyse the vote for one party The definition and operationalisation of
in contrast to the vote for its main competitor9. the independent variables are the following:
We focus on the traditional parties (PP, PSOE — “National, regional and local political lead-
and IU) due to the limited number of cases for ers”. These are the most important indica-
the new formations (Podemos and Ciu- tors in the analysis, as they permit us to
dadanos)10. Therefore, we use two dichoto- measure the degree of nationalisation, re-
mous dependent variables: “vote PP versus gionalisation and localism behind the indi-
vidual motivations of voters. They include
nine variables related to political leaders,
9 This analytical decision allows us to examine the mo- one for each of the three parties included
tivations behind the most frequent voting decisions in the analysis (PSOE, PP and IU) at each
among the voters. We have discarded operationalising
the dependent variables referring to the vote for one of the three levels of government where
party versus the vote for the rest of the formations be- they exercise their political activity (nation-
cause the latter category would include very different
al, regional and local). The assessment of
parties, which could distort the results. In addition, we
rejected the possibility of examining the vote for a party national, regional and local leaders11 is
versus the fact of not voting for it, as that would include based on a scale of 1 to 5.
abstentions, a behaviour in which political leaders tradi-
tionally do not exercise any influence.
10 The candidatures associated with Podemos remain
outside of the analysis, as they constitute specifically 11The variables regarding municipal leaders reflect the
local candidatures. assessment of local electoral lists.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142132 Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
— “Partisan identification”. This has five nicipalities between 20,0001 and 50,000
possible values: 1 for those identified inhabitants; and 4 for municipalities with
with the party; 2 for those close to the more than 50,000 inhabitants.
party; 3 for those not identified or close
Interaction effects:
to the party or to its main competitor; 4
for those close to the party’s main com- — “Local political leaders*size of municipal-
petitor; and 5 for those identified with the ity”. This interaction is introduced in the
party’s main competitor. This variable analysis to observe the impact of local
has two variants based on the depend- candidates by size of habitat (hypothesis
ent variables: “partisan identification 2). An interaction is incorporated for each
with the PP versus with the PSOE” and one of the political parties included in the
“partisan identification with the IU versus analysis. Size of municipality is consid-
the PSOE12”. ered as a nominal variable, using the val-
— “Ideology”. This variable is constituted by ue 1 (up to 10,000 inhabitants) as the ref-
five values: 1 for the extreme left; 2 for the erence category, that is, the smallest size
left; 3 for the centre; 4 for the right; and 5 municipalities.
for the extreme right.
These three main independent variables
The impact of national, regional
have been treated as scale variables with
and local leaders in municipal
values from 1 to 5 to standardise their ef-
elections
fects.
We have introduced the following as con- The results of the regression models are
trol variables: presented in Table 113. The analysis shows
— “Education level”. This indicator has the that local, regional and national leaders im-
value of 1 for without education or incom- pact on the municipal vote, with the specif-
plete primary level education; 2 for prima- ically local candidates having greater im-
ry school education; 3 for obligatory sec- pact. In this sense, local electoral lists have
ondary school education or basic a statistically significant effect in all the
vocational training; 4 for upper secondary elections analysed and in the case of all the
education or advanced vocational train- political parties. As a result, the probability
ing; and 5 for university education. of voting for a political party in municipal
— “Age”. This variable has five categories. elections increases the more positively its
1 for persons from 18 to 34 years of age; municipal candidate is valued, and the more
2 for those from 35 to 44 years of age; 3 negatively the local leader of the main com-
for those from 45 to 54 years of age; 4 peting formation is perceived. The data also
for those from 55 to 64 years of age; and reveal an important finding: the influence of
5 for persons 65 years of age and over. local leadership in municipal elections has
— “Size of municipality”. This has four cate- increased in recent years. In this respect,
gories: 1 for municipalities of up to 10,000 the effect of local lists was significantly
inhabitants; 2 for municipalities between higher in the 2015 elections than in the 2011
10,001 and 20,000 inhabitants; 3 for mu- elections; this is the case for all the political
formations examined.
12 The coding for this independent variable reflects the
adequacy of using binary logistical regression versus 13 The value of the unstandardised coefficient is presen-
multinomial logistical regression. ted (b) and the level of significance.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López 133
TABLE 1. Binary logistic regression model to explain the impact of national, regional and local leaders on the
2011 and 2015 municipal elections in Andalusia
Vote PP vs. PSOE Vote IU vs. PSOE
2011 2015 2011 2015
Local PP leader -1.200*** -1.788***
Local PSOE leader 0.923*** 1.262*** 1.109*** 1.295***
Local IU leader -1.184*** -2.245***
Regional PP leader -0.393* -1.144**
Regional PSOE leader 0.461** 1.029** 0.730** 1.386*
Regional IU leader -0.278 -2.412**
National PP leader -0.241 -0.853**
National PSOE leader 0.331* 0.827* 0.748** 1.317*
National IU leader -0.890** -1.038
Partisan identification 1.332*** 0.608* 0.716*** 2.472***
Ideology -1.329*** -0.909 0.826* 0.834
Size of municipality
(1) Up to 10,000 inhab. (ref.)
(2) Between 10,001 and 20,000 inhab. -0.523 -1.063 -1.019 -2.177
(3) Between 20,001 and 50,000 inhab. -0.099 -0.749 0.335 -1.958
(4) More than 50,000 inhab. -0.540 -0.573 0.739 0.503
Education level
Without education or incomplete (ref.)
Primary level -0.885 -3.550* 0.515 7.899
Obligatory secondary or basic vocational training -0.794 -2.292 2.109* -1.938
Advanced secondary or advanced vocational training -0.417 -2.210 -0.125 2.105
University education -0.941 -2.809 0.177 2.697
Age
From18 to 34 years of age (ref.)
35 to 44 0.152 -0.427 0.595 2.306
45 to 54 0.408 -0.585 0.752 0.615
55 to 64 -0.197 0.675 -0.204 1.593
65 and up -0.580 -0.387 0.033 -1.555
Constant 0.964 5.528 -5.909*** -5.070
-2 log likelihood 364.477 94.808 150.064 51.097
Cox-Snell R2 0.625 0.638 0.543 0.603
Nagelkerke R2 0.835 0.854 0.744 0.826
* p≤0,1; ** p≤0,05; ***p≤0,01
Source: By authors based on data from the CADPEA: EGOPA Verano 2011 and 2015.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142134 Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
Regarding the impact of national leaders In Graph 3 we can see the evolution of
on the vote in municipal elections, the results the probabilities of voting for each party ver-
also show that they conditioned the munici- sus its main competitor based on the eval-
pal vote in the case of all the political parties uation made of national, regional and local
and elections with the exception of the na- leaders14. Thus, the probability of voting for
tional leader of the PP in the 2011 elections the PSOE versus voting for the PP declined
and the national leader of the IU in the 2015 by 82.82 percentage points when the eval-
elections. The magnitude of the effect of na- uation of the local leader of the PP shifted
tional leaders is also important, although it is from the worst to the best in the 2011 elec-
below that exercised by specifically local tions, with this figure being 89.80 percent-
leaders, with the only exception being the age points in 2015. In contrast, the proba-
national leader of the PSOE in determining bilities increased by 71.99 percentage
the vote between the IU and PSOE in 2015. points in 2011 and 74.89 points in 2015
In that regard, the impact of national leaders when the evaluation of the local PSOE lead-
on the municipal vote is greater in the deci- er shifted from worst to the best. In addition,
sion to vote between the IU and PSOE than in the voting decision between the IU and
in the vote between the PP and PSOE. PSOE, the probability of voting for the latter
declined by 82.26 points in 2011 and by
Regarding the effect of regional leaders,
84.18 points in 2015 based on the shift in
the data reveal they had influence on the mu-
the evaluations of the local leader of the IU
nicipal vote in almost every case. In this
(from worst to best). In the case of the local
sense, regional leaders influenced the vote leader of the PSOE the probabilities in-
for the PP versus the vote for the PSOE in creased by 79.69 percentage points in 2011
both elections. They also did so in the deci- and by 45.17 points in 2015 when voters’
sion to vote between the IU and PSOE, al- evaluations shifted from the worst to the
though in the 2011 election only the regional best.
leader of the PSOE had influence.
In Table 215 we see the results from the
Looking at the results for each of the de- binary logistic regression models carried out
pendent variables, we can point out that in to measure the impact of local leaders on the
the decision to vote between the PP and municipal vote by size of municipality. As can
PSOE, local candidates had significant im- be seen, the interaction is only significant in
portance. After them are situated regional the case of the vote between the PP and the
leaders in terms of the magnitude of their in- PSOE and in respect to local leaders of the
fluence on the municipal vote. National lead- PSOE in 2011. In particular, we find signifi-
ers, for their part, also had a statistically sig- cant differences in the impact of local leaders
nificant effect, although less than that of the PSOE between small municipalities
exercised by local and regional leaders. and large cities. It is in the small municipali-
In the decision to vote between the IU ties where the evaluation of the party’s mu-
and the PSOE we again see the important nicipal candidates generates a greater prob-
impact of local leaders. National leaders ability of voting for the PSOE versus voting
also have a considerable impact; the effect for the PP. In the 2015 elections, we do not
of the national leader of the PSOE being
greater than that of the local candidate of
that party in 2015. Regional leaders, for their 14 The probabilities were calculated leaving the rest of
the independent variable constant in their average cate-
part, also had influence, having a greater gories.
impact than local candidates in the 2015 15 The value of the unstandardised coefficient is presen-
municipal elections. ted (b) and the level of significance.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López 135
GRAPH 3. Probabilities of the effect of national, regional and local leaders in municipal elections (2011-2015)
Voto PPvs.
Vote PP vs PSOE
PSOE (2011)
(2011) Voto PP vs.
Vote PP vs PSOE
PSOE (2015)
(2015)
1 1
0,8 0,8
0,6 0,6
0,4 0,4
0,2 0,2
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
Líder PP
Local local PP
leader Líder
Local local
PSOEPSOE
leader Líder
Local local PP
PP leader Líder
Locallocal
PSOEPSOE
leader
LíderPP
Reg. reg. PP
leader Líder reg. PSOE
Reg. PSOE leader Líder reg.leader
Reg. PP PP Líder
Reg. reg.
PSOE PSOE
leader
LíderPP
Nat. nac. PP
leader Líder nac. PSOE
Nat. PSOE leader Líder nac.
Nat. PP PP
leader Líder nac. PSOE
Nat. PSOE leader
Voto IUvs.
Vote IU vs PSOE
PSOE (2011)
(2011) Voto IU vs.
Vote IU vs PSOE
PSOE (2015)
(2015)
1 1
0,8 0,8
0,6 0,6
0,4 0,4
0,2 0,2
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
Líder
Local local IU
IU leader Líder
Local local
PSOEPSOE
leader Líder
Local local IU
IU leader Líder PSOE
Local local PSOE
leader
Líder reg.
Reg. IU IU
leader Líder reg. PSOE
Reg. PSOE leader Líder reg.
Reg. IU IU
leader LíderPSOE
Reg. reg. PSOE
leader
Líder nac.
Nat. IU IU
leader Líder nac. PSOE
Nat. PSOE leader Líder
Nat. IUnac. IU
leader LíderPSOE
Nat. nac. PSOE
leader
Source: By authors.
find significant differences in the impact of tional, regional and local— influence elec-
local leaders between small municipalities tion results. However, we can only partially
and large cities. accept hypothesis 2; although we have
In short, we accept hypothesis 1, as we found that the impact of local candidates is
have confirmed the impact of national, re- greater than that of national and regional
gional and local leaders on municipal elec- leaders, we do not find conclusive results
tions. Thus, there is an interdependence regarding their impact by size of municipal-
among the different levels of government, as ity in the decision to vote for one party ver-
factors specific to each of the arenas —na- sus its competitor.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142136 Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
TABLE 2. Binary logistic regression models to explain the impact of local leaders in municipal elections by size
of municipality (2011-2015) (continuation)
Vote PP vs. PSOE Vote IU vs. PSOE
2011 2015 2011 2015
Local PP leader -1.226*** -2.428***
Local PSOE leader 0.977*** 2.051** 1.331*** 0.361
Local IU leader -1.327*** -2.445*
Regional PP leader -0.418* -1.280**
Regional PSOE leader 0.501** 1.104** 0.716** 2.519**
Regional IU leader -0.202 -3.707**
National PP leader -0.250 -0.798*
National PSOE leader 0.334* 1.166* 0.707** 1.720*
National IU leader -0.868** -1.257
Partisan identification 1.346*** 0.656* 0.737*** 3.175***
Ideology -1.272*** -1.120 0.803* 1.646
Size of municipality
(1) Up to 10,000 inhab. (ref.)
(2) Between 10,001 and 20,000 inhab. -2.225 4.055 -1.924 0.342
(3) Between 2,.001 and 50.000 inhab. -0.385 0.937 0.657 -4.170
(4) More than 50,000 inhab. 2.054 -1.676 2.227 -6.697
Education level -1.844 -0.138
No education or incomplete (ref.)
Primary school -0.905 -4.509* 0.511 10.816
Obligatory secondary or basic vocational -0.841 -1.946 2.101* -1.428
Upper secondary or advanced voc -0.386 -2.128 -0.083 4.039
University -0.952 -3.156 0.286 3.969
Age -0.097
From 18 to 34 years of age (ref.)
From 35 to 44 0.117 -0.561 0.628 4.195*
From 45 to 54 0.466 -0.718 0.745 0.665
From 55 to 64 -0.187 0.265 -0.063 1.367
65 and above -0.656 -0.767 0.063 -1.780
Local PP leader * Size of municipality
Local PP leader * mun. 1 (ref.)
Local PP leader * mun. 2 0.256 0.333
Local PP leader * mun. 3 -0.186 1.426
Local PP leader * mun. 4 0.047 -0.486
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López 137
TABLE 2. Binary logistic regression models to explain the impact of local leaders in municipal elections by size
of municipality (2011-2015) (continuation)
Vote PP vs. PSOE Vote IU vs. PSOE
2011 2015 2011 2015
Local PSOE leader * Size of municipality
Local PSOE leader * mun. 1 (ref.)
Local PSOE leader * mun. 2 0.261 -2.018 -0.082 11.971
Local PSOE leader * mun. 3 0.272 -1.951* -0.271 -0.390
Local PSOE leader * mun. 4 -0.938* 0.923 -0.933 3.011
Local IU leader * Size of municipality
Local IU leader * mun. 1 (ref.)
Local IU leader * mun. 2 0.361 -12.744
Local IU leader * mun. 3 0.154 0.864
Local IU leader * mun. 4 0.316 -0.653
Constant 0.654 4.789 -6.311*** -7.434
-2 log likelihood 356.844 85.736 147.460 38.889
Cox-Snell R2 0.628 0.650 0.547 0.638
Nagelkerke R2 0.840 0.870 0.750 0.874
* p≤0,1; ** p≤0,05; ***p≤0,01
Source: By authors based on data from the CADPEA: EGOPA Verano 2011 and 2015.
Discussion and conclusions direct contact. We have used the evaluation
of national, regional and local leaders as in-
The limited scholarly attention given to mu- dicators of these factors, which has permit-
nicipal elections and the predominance of ted us to address another of the important
existing studies based on the nationalisation existing controversies in this field: the impact
thesis the second order election model make of local candidates on the vote in municipal
these elections an important object of study. elections.
In this context, the objective of this study has Given our objectives, we used a quantita-
been to examine the effects that nationalisa- tive methodology based on survey data. For
tion, regionalisation and localism have on methodological reasons we chose the Auton-
municipal elections. Beyond the traditional omous Region of Andalusia as our sphere of
aggregate approach, it was necessary to analysis. This limited possible contamination
look at their effects at the individual level to effects from regional elections, as Andalusia
understand the motives involved in citizens holds these different level elections separate-
voting decisions in municipal elections. Our ly, and provided us with adequate data for
intention was to discover if voters are guided comparing the impact of national, regional
by national, regional or specifically local fac- and local leaders in municipal elections.
tors at the municipal level, the one they are Based on our analysis we found that the
closest to and with which they have the most predominance of national parties in the mu-
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142138 Political Leadership and Local Elections: Nationalisation, Regionalisation or Localism?
nicipal sphere is compatible with the elector- pañol de Ciencia Política y de la Administración.
al importance of specifically local factors, Sevilla: Asociación Española de Ciencia Política.
such as municipal candidates. As a result, Bechtel, Michael M. (2012). “Not always Second Or-
we have to distinguish two types of nation- der: Subnational Elections, National-level Vote
alisation. First, there is the nationalisation of Intentions, and Volatility Spillovers in a Multi-level
the party system, of an aggregate character; Electoral System”. Electoral Studies, 31: 170-183.
doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.10. 005
and secondly, there is the nationalisation of
the vote at the individual level. Consistent Biezen, Ingrid van and Hopkin, Jonathan (2006). “Par-
with this, we found that voters chose parties ty Organisation in Multi-level Contexts”. In:
Hough, D. and Jeffery, C. (eds.). Devolution and
of the national sphere in municipal elections,
Electoral Politics. Manchester: Manchester Uni-
but they were primarily motivated by local
versity Press.
factors. This could be due in part to the se-
Blais, André; Gidengil, Elisabeth; Dobrzynska, Ag-
lection of candidates that national forma-
nieszka; Nevitte, Neil and Nadeau, Richard (2003).
tions carry out in the local arena, which sug-
“Does the Local Candidate Matter? Candidate
gests a new path of analysis. In the case of Effects in the Canadian Election of 2000”. Cana-
municipal elections, voters were strongly dian Journal of Political Science, 36(3): 657-664.
influenced by specifically local candidates,
Botella, Joan (1992). “La galaxia local en el sistema
as well as by national and regional leaders, político español”. Revista de Estudios Políticos,
although to a lesser extent. The impact of 76: 145-160.
local leaders on the arena in which they ex-
Brugué, Quim and Gomà, Ricard (1998). “Gobierno
ercise their political labours was found in all local: de la nacionalización al localismo y de la
the elections and for all the political parties gerencialización a la repolitización”. In: Brugué,
examined. Q. and Gomà, R. (coords.). Gobiernos locales y
This finding contributes new arguments políticas públicas: bienestar social, promoción
económica y territorio. Barcelona: Ariel.
to the debate over the personalisation of lo-
cal politics, as the results we obtained show Capó, Jordi (1991). “Elecciones municipales, pero no
the great importance of local leaders, who locales”. Revista Española de Investigaciones
are not found to be subordinate to the na- Sociológicas (REIS), 56: 143-164.
tional leaders of their parties in terms of their Carrillo, Ernesto (1989). “La nacionalización de la
electoral influence. However, we also found política local”. Política y Sociedad, 3: 29-46.
evidence of interdependence across levels of Claggett, William; Flanigan, William and Zingale, Nan-
government, as although local leaders signif- cy (1984). “Nationalization of the American Elec-
icantly condition the municipal vote, so do torate”. The American Political Science Review,
national and regional political leaders. There- 78(1): 77-91. doi: 10.2307/1961250
fore, we can conclude that voting behaviour Clark, Nick and Rohrschneider, Robert (2009). “Se-
at the individual level in municipal elections cond-order Elections versus First-order Thinking:
is determined by localism and, to a lesser How Voters Perceive the Representation Process
in a Multi-layered System of Governance”. Jour-
extent, by nationalisation and regionalisation.
nal of European Integration, 31(5): 645-664. doi.
In short, we have revealed the impact of po-
org/10.1080/07036330903145906
litical leaders on voting in municipal elec-
Cunningham, Robert (1971). “The Impact of the Local
tions, particularly local leaders.
Candidate in Canadian Federal Elections”. Cana-
dian Journal of Political Science, 4(2): 287-290.
doi.org/10.1017/S0008423918000367
Bibliography Curtice, John and Payne, Clive (1991). “Local Elec-
Barreiro, Xosé L. and Jaráiz, Erika (2013). “Cuando tions as National Referendums in Great Britain”.
los líderes no ayudan: crisis de liderazgo en las Electoral Studies, 10(1): 3-17. doi.org/10.1016/
elecciones gallegas”. Actas del XI Congreso Es- 0261-3794(91)90002-A
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142Carmen Ortega-Villodres and Fátima Recuero-López 139
Cutler, Fred (2008). “One Voter,Two First-order Elec- Self-Government, 8(2): 147-160. doi.org/10.4335/
tions?”. Electoral Studies, 27: 492-504. doi. 8. 2.147-160(2010)
org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.01.002
McLean, Iain; Heath, Anthony and Taylor, Bridget
Dalton, Russell J. (2000). “The Decline of Party Iden- (1996). “Were the 1994 Euro- and Local Elections
tifications”. In: Dalton, R. J. and Wattenberg, M. P. in Britain Really Second-Order? Evidence from
(eds.). Parties without Partisans: Political Change The British Election Panel Study”. British Elec-
in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Oxford: tions and Parties Yearbook, 6(1): 1-20. doi.
Oxford University Press. org/10.1080/ 13689889608412969
Delgado, Irene (1998). “El comportamiento electoral Quinlivan, Aodh (2015). “The 2014 Local Elections in
en los municipios rurales: una aproximación des- the Republic of Ireland”. Irish Political Studies,
de las elecciones municipales de 1995”. Agricul- 30(1): 132-142. doi.org/10.1080/07907184.2014.
tura y Sociedad, 86: 13-32. 990959
Delgado, Irene (1999). “Resultados electorales y Quinlivan, Aodh and Weeks, Liam (2010). “The 2009
orientación del voto en los comicios municipales Local Elections in the Republic of Ireland”. Irish
de 1995”. Revista Española de Investigaciones Political Studies, 25(2): 315-324. doi.org/10.1080/
Sociológicas (REIS), 86: 247-273. 07907181003703607
Delgado, Irene (2010). “Entre el primer y el segundo Rallings, Colin and Thrasher, Michael (1993). “Ex-
orden: ¿qué lugar para las elecciones municipales ploring Uniformity and Variability in Local Elec-
de 2007?”. Política y Sociedad, 47(2): 153-173. tions Outcomes: Some Evidence from English
Deschouwer, Kris (1994). “Local Elections in Belgium: Local Elections 1985-1991”. Electoral Studies,
Between Nationalization and Localism”. In: López 12(4): 366-384. doi.org/10.1016/0261-
Nieto, L. (ed.). Local Elections in Europe. Barce- 3794(93)900 39-M
lona: Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials Rallings, Colin and Thrasher, Michael (2003). “Explai-
(ICPS). ning Split-ticket Voting at the 1979 and 1997
Heath, Anthony; McLean, Iain; Taylor, Bridget and General and Local Elections in England”. Political
Curtice, John (1999). “Between First and Se- Studies, 51: 558-572. doi.org/10.1111/1467-
cond Order: A Comparison of Voting Behavior 9248.00441
in European and Local Elections in Britain”. Eu- Reif, Karlheinz and Schmitt, Hermann (1980). “Nine
ropean Journal of Political Research, 35: 389- Second-order National Elections – A Conceptual
414. Framework for the Analysis of European Elections
Knutsen, Oddbjørn (1998). “Europeans Move towards Results”. European Journal of Political Research,
the Center: A Comparative Longitudinal Study of 8(1): 3-44. doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1980.tb
Left-Right Self-Placement in Western Europe”. 00737.x
International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Riera Sagrera, Pedro; Gómez Martínez, Raúl; Barbe-
10(4): 292-316. doi: 10.1093/ijpor/10.4.292 rá Aragüena, Pablo; Mayoral Díaz-Asensio, Juan
Mackie, Tom and Franklin, Mark (1992). “Electoral Antonio and Montero Gilbert, José Ramón (2016).
Change and Social Change”. In: Franklin, M.; “Elecciones municipales en España: Un análisis
Mackie, T.; Valen, H. et al. Electoral Change. Res- multinivel de los determinantes individuales y
ponses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Struc- contextuales del voto”. Revista de Estudios Po-
tures in Western Countries. Cambridge: Cambrid- líticos, 172: 47-82. doi.org/10.18042/cepc/rep.
ge University Press. 172.02
Marien, Sofie; Dassonneville, Ruth and Hooghe, Marc Riera Sagrera, Pedro; Gómez Martínez, Raúl; Mayo-
(2015). “How Second Order Are Local Elections? ral Díaz-Asensio, Juan Antonio; Barberá Aragüe-
Voting Motives and Party Preferences in Belgian na, Pablo and Montero Gilbert, José Ramón
Municipal Elections”. Local Government Studies, (2017). “Elecciones municipales en España. La
41(6): 898-916. doi.org/10.1080/03003930.2015. personalización del voto”. Revista Internacional
1048230 de Sociología, 75(2): e062. doi.org/10.3989/
ris.2017. 75.2.15.140
Martínez, Guadalupe and Ortega, Carmen (2010).
“The Political Leadership Factor in the Spanish Rico, Guillem (2009). Líderes políticos, opinión públi-
Local Elections”. Lex Localis-Journal of Local ca y comportamiento electoral en España. Ma-
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. Nº 169, January - March 2020, pp. 123-142You can also read
