Promoting Competition and Investment in Energy Market - November 2018 - APER Forum Meeting 2018

 
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APER Forum Meeting 2018

 Promoting Competition and
Investment in Energy Market

        November 2018

                                              0
Outline
          1. Purpose of Energy System Reform
          2. State of Competition in the Electricity Market
              1. Retail market
              2. Wholesale market
          3. Past Initiatives to Promote Competition
                  1. Setting up and Revision of various Guidelines
                  2. Implementation of various Recommendations
                  3. Examples of Initiatives to Stimulate the Spot Market
          4. Future Challenges
              1. Retail market
                  1. Criteria for Abolishing the Regulated Tariff
              2. Wholesale market
                  1. Ensuring investment in Electricity Supply in
                     competitive markets
              3. Ensuring neutrality of network sectors
                  1. Legal Unbundling

                                                                            1
1. System Reform in Japan
⚫ Main purpose of the reform from ‘95 was reduction of the electricity price.
    1995                Independent Power Producers

    2000                Partial Liberalization of the Retail Market (over 2,000 kW)

    2003                Establishment of Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX)

                         Great East Japan Earthquake/Fukushima Daiichi Accident,
    2011                 resulting in scheduled load shedding in Tokyo Area
                        Establishment of EGC
                        Full Liberalization of the Retail Market,
    2016                Imbalance Settlement, Open Procurement of Balancing Power

    2020                 Legal Unbundling of Transmission Sector
                          Regulated retail tariff might be abolished

    2021                 Establishment of Balancing Power Market
                                                                                      2
1.Reductions in Electricity Prices
  ⚫ Except a few years after the Great East Japan Earthquake, electricity prices net of Fuel
    Fee and Renewable Energy Surcharge gradually declined after the electricity system
    reform started.

(yen / kWh)      ・Introduction of IPP and bidding system
 22                                                               ・Great East Japan Earthquake
 21                                                                                 ・Full liberalization
 20
                19.2                                                                19.0       RE surcharges
 19                                                                                             Surcharge of RE
                                                                                               Fuel
                                                                                                fuelfees
 18            2.3                                                                                   fee
                                                                                     2.6       Other
                                                                                                otherexpected fuelfee・surcharge
                                                                                                      expect fuel  fees/RE surcharges
                                                                                                                                  for RE
 17

 16
                                                                                                           Electricity prices
 15                                                                                                        net of fuel fees
                                                                                                           and RE surcharges
 14                                                                                  5.1
                                                                                                           ▲5.71 yen/kWh
 13
               17.0                                                                                          (▲34%)
 12

 11

 10                                                                                 11.3
  9
      1990     1995           2000           2005          2010              2015

                                                                                             1 USD=around 100yen                           3
1. Purpose of Energy System Reform (2011-present)
     Secure stable power supply
 1    Promote the cross-regional exchange of electricity and improving
     measures to adjust supply and demand. Promote development and
     interconnections of gas pipeline networks.

     Suppress tariffs to the maximum extent possible
 2   Encourage competition among energy operators and entry from
     other industries and areas for the maximum suppress of fees.

     Expand Choices for Consumers and Business
     Opportunities
 3    Respond to customer needs with various options. Evoke innovation
     through entry from other industries and areas and the utilization of
     new technologies, etc.

           • “Democratization” of energy systems
               • Numerous and diverse participants
               • Application of market mechanisms
               • Regulations Ensuring These                                 4
Outline
          1. Purpose of Energy System Reform
          2. State of Competition in the Electricity Market
             1. Retail market
             2. Wholesale market
          3. Past Initiatives to Promote Competition
                  1. Setting up and Revision of various Guidelines
                  2. Implementation of various Recommendations
                  3. Examples of Initiatives to Stimulate the Spot Market
          4. Future Challenges
              1. Retail market
                  1. Criteria for Abolishing the Regulated Tariff
              2. Wholesale market
                  1. Ensuring investment in Electricity Supply in
                     competitive markets
              3. Ensuring neutrality of network sectors
                  1. Legal Unbundling

                                                                            5
2. Share of Non-Regulated (Liberalised ) Tariffs

 •    Although the market share of New Entrants is rising steadily based on the number of
      contracts, the share is still low.

     30%
                                                                                                                            26%
                   Retailers 10 → App. 530
     25%           New entrants are from other industry
                   such as gas, oil, and construction.
     20%
                                                                                                                              18%

     15%

     10%                                                                                                                      8%

     5%

     0%
            Apr
           4月      Jun
                  6月       Aug
                           8月          Oct
                                      10月     Dec
                                             12月     Feb
                                                     2月       Apr
                                                              4月     Jun
                                                                     6月       Aug
                                                                              8月     Oct
                                                                                     10月     Dec
                                                                                             12月     Feb
                                                                                                     2月      Apr
                                                                                                             4月       Jun
                                                                                                                      6月      Aug
                                                                                                                              8月
                         2016                                        2017                                      2018
                                             Share of Incumbents’
                  新電力のみ
                  Share of New               旧一電新メニュー
                                             Non-Regulated Tariffs          旧一電新メニューと新電力合計
                                                                            Share of
                                                                            Non-Regulated Tariffs
                                                                                                  %:Based on number of contracts
                  Entrants’ Tariffs                                                                  (under 50kW)
                                                                                                                                    6
2. Switching from Incumbents to New Entrants

     45%
     40%
     35%           France: Full
                  仏:全面自由化(2007)
                   liberalization (2007)
     30%
                   UK: Full
                  英:全面自由化(1999)            25%                                                  UK
     25%           liberalization (1999)

     20%                                                                                        France
     15%                                    10%          12%*
     10%                                                                                        Japan
                                             3%
      5%
      0%
        Year 0             Year 1          Year 2        Year 3        Year 4         Year 5

                                              %:based on the gross sum of switched contracts from incumbents
*referring to the index of August, 2018.
                                              (under 50kW)
                                                                                                         7
2. Structure of Holders of Electricity Generators

 ⚫ Incumbent operators hold 83% of the capacity.
 ⚫ Capacity of PV increased from 5,000MW(2010)to 47,000MW(2017).

                                                                                          東京電力フュエル&パワー(株)
                                                                                          TEPCO Fuel & Power, Inc.
                                                               42,763,000
                                                                                          関西電力(株)
                                                                                          Kansai Electric Power Co., Ltd.
                         2,166,320                                                        中部電力(株)
                                                                                          Chubu Electric Power Co., Ltd.
                       2,260,000                                                          東京電力ホールディングス(株)
                                                                                          TEPCO Holdings, Inc.
                   6,344,838                                                              九州電力(株)
                                                                                          Kyushu Electric Power Co., Inc.
                                                                                          東北電力(株)
                                                                                          Tohoku-Electric Power Co., Inc.
                  7,957,405                                                               電源開発(株)
                                                                                          Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. (J-POWER)
                                                                                          中国電力(株)
                                                                                          Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc
                 8,075,198                                                                北陸電力(株)
                                                                                          Hokuriku Electric Power Company
                                                                            36,578,945
                                                                                          北海道電力(株)
                                                                                          Hokkaido Electric Power Co, Inc.
                11,536,355                                                                四国電力(株)
                                                                                          Shikoku Electric Power Co., Inc.
                                                                                          日本原子力発電(株)
                                                                                          Japan Atomic Power Company
                                                                                          沖縄電力(株)
                                                                                          Okinawa Electric Power Company, Incorporated (OEPC)
                 16,983,600                                                               相馬共同火力発電(株)
                                                                                          Soma Kyodo Power Company, Ltd.
                                                                                          常磐共同火力(株)
                                                                                          Joban Joint Power Co., Ltd.
                                                                                          日本製紙(株)
                                                                                          Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd.
                                                                       33,140,190
                                                                                          瀬戸内共同火力(株)
                                                                                          Setouchi Joint Thermal Power Co., Ltd.
                       18,231,017                                                         ㈱コベルコパワー神戸
                                                                                          Kobelco Power Kobe Inc.
                                                                                          JFEスチール(株)

                                                                                                     …
                                                                                          JFE Steel Corporation
                                     18,849,521
                                                                                          新日鐵住金(株)
                                                                                          Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation

                                                                                                         …
                                                  22,530,970

   (Source) Based on "Electric Power Supply Survey Statistics" by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy. Installed
   capacity (MW) of power supply sources held by 96 operators generating 100MW or more.                                                         8
2.Volume of Transactions in Spot Markets
•    The volume of transactions at the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX), an important means for new
     entrants to purchase electricity, has consistently increased.
•    Further growth will be expected in the future as a result of the impacts of the new rule for use of
     interconnections, etc.
    ■Contracted amount (billion kWh)                                                                                                              -Percentage of JEPX transactions in total demand (%)
    7                                                                                                                                                                                                                      35.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           31.8
    6                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30.0

    5                                                                                                                                                                                                                      25.0

    4                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20.0

    3                                                                                                                                                                                                                      15.0

    2                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10.0

    1                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5.0

    0                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0.0
                   May 2017

                                                                                                                                                         May 2018
                                                    Aug 2017

                                                                                     Nov 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug 2018
                                                                                                Dec 2017
                                                               Sep 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep 2018
                                                                                                                                 Mar 2018
                                                                                                                      Feb 2018
        Apr 2017

                                                                                                                                              Apr 2018
                              Jun 2017

                                                                                                                                                                    Jun 2018
                                                                          Oct 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct 2018
                                                                                                           Jan 2018
                                         Jul 2017

                                                                                                                                                                               Jul 2018
                                                                                                                                            Note: figure for October 2018 is preliminary estimated                                9
Outline
          1. Purpose of Energy System Reform
          2. State of Competition in the Electricity Market
             1. Retail market
             2. Wholesale market
          3. Past Initiatives to Promote Competition
                  1. Setting up and Revision of various Guidelines
                  2. Implementation of various Recommendations
                  3. Examples of Initiatives to Stimulate the Spot Market
          4. Future Challenges
              1. Retail market
                  1. Criteria for Abolishing the Regulated Tariff
              2. Wholesale market
                  1. Ensuring investment in Electricity Supply in
                     competitive markets
              3. Ensuring neutrality of network sectors
                  1. Legal Unbundling

                                                                        10
3. Setting up and Revision of various Guidelines

Guideline on Sales of Retail Electricity
 Examples of preferred actions                             Examples of problematic actions

                                                           ⚫ Provision of misleading information to customers
 ⚫ Publication of standard menus and examples of average
   monthly fees
                                                           ⚫ Failure of the compliance with requirements to
                                                             explain and issue
 ⚫ Explanations of cancellation fee when switching etc.
                                                             documents to customers

Guideline on Proper Electricity Transactions
 Examples of preferred actions                             Examples of problematic actions

 ⚫ Clear specifications of transmission and distribution
   service fees on invoices for customers                  ⚫ Unfair bandling in set sales

 ⚫ Proactive use of Electric Power Exchange and selling    ⚫ Setting unreasonably low prices for specific
   bids                                                      customers

Follow-up surveys
◆ Five follow-up surveys have been conducted for business operators since April 2016.

                                                                                                                11
3. Implementation of Recommendations
 ⚫ Since April 2016, the electricity market was fully liberalized, recommendations have
   been made on 6 improper cases by four operators.

    Date of         Target Operators        Business                            Details
Recommendations

October 11, 2018   TEPCO Energy        Electricity, Gas       Documents not delivered after contracts
                   Partner, Inc.       (retail)               concluded

August 2, 2018     F-POWER Inc.        Electricity (retail)   Failure to provide required explanations

May 16, 2018       Tohoku-Electric     Electricity (TSO)      Overcharged construction cost share
                   Power Co., Inc.

March 2, 2018      TEPCO Energy        Electricity, Gas       Documents not delivered before
                   Partner, Inc.       (retail)               contracts concluded

November 17,       TEPCO Energy        Electricity (retail)   Market manipulation at JEPX
2016               Partner, Inc.

June 17, 2016      TEPCO Power Grid,   Electricity (TSO)      Late notification of electricity usage
                   Inc.

                                                                                                         12
3. Examples of Initiatives to Stimulate the Spot Market

⚫ EGC has been encouraging the incumbents that hold the bulk of
  power generation capacity to contribute equal footing of new entrants
  and incumbents.

                            ✓ The whole surplus electricity (surplus of the
   Supply of the Whole
                              incumbents’ demand, excluding power adjustment
   Surplus Electricity to
                              and bidding constraints) will be bid to the JEPX
       the Market
                              market in the price of marginal cost (from 2013).

                            ✓ Internal trades between generation section and
      Gross Bidding           retailing section of the incumbents are supposed to be
                              done through the JEPX market(from 2017)

                                                                                       13
Outline
          1. Purpose of Energy System Reform
          2. State of Competition in the Electricity Market
             1. Retail market
             2. Wholesale market
          3. Past Initiatives to Promote Competition
                  1. Setting up and Revision of various Guidelines
                  2. Implementation of various Recommendations
                  3. Examples of Initiatives to Stimulate the Spot Market
          4. Future Challenges
              1. Retail market
                  1. Criteria for Abolishing the Regulated Tariff
              2. Wholesale market
                  1. Ensuring investment in Electricity Supply in
                     competitive markets
              3. Ensuring neutrality of network sectors
                  1. Legal Unbundling

                                                                        14
4. Criteria for Abolishing the Regulated Tariff

⚫ Regulation tariffs remain to prevent unregulated monopolies.
⚫ Standards to abolish regulations will be set through comprehensive assessments from
  three perspectives: (1) consumers' situations, (2) existence of adequate pressure of
  competition, and (3) sustained competition.

                                  ✓ How much interest do consumers have in switching
     Consumers’ situations          electricity?
                                  ✓ How will switching by consumers change in the future?

                                  ✓ Probability that there will be pressure from competitors
     Existence of adequate          on price increases by incumbent utilities?
   pressure from competitors      ✓ Is there any obvious pressure from competitors on price
                                    increases by incumbent utilities?

                                  ✓ Is a switching environment being developed?
     Sustained competition        ✓ Is a sustained competitive environment being
                                    maintained?

                                                                                               15
4. Securing Investment in Capacity in Competitive Markets
     ⚫ The predictability of power supply investments declines due to expanded transactions
       in the wholesale power market and expanded introduction of renewable energy along
       with the FIT system, etc. In the medium- to long-term, there is concern that it will be
       difficult to newly establish and maintain facilities to secure the required supply and
       adjustment capacity throughout the entire country.
     ⚫ Capacity market will be set from 2020 and EGC is expected to monitor new markets for
       appropriate trades.

                                   FY 2017               FY 2018                FY 2019                FY 2020              FY 2021
                                       Start of           Introduction of
                                    gross bidding        indirect auctions
          Spot Market
                                                                                Start of base         Start of base load
                                                                              load transactions       shipping/receiving

        Forward Market
                                                                             Start of transactions
                                 Start of transactions                        (All non-fossil fuel-
                                  (FIT power supply                                  based
                                         only)                                  power supply)
        Non-fossil Fuel
         Value Market
                                                                                                            Start of       Capacity contracts
                                                                                                         transactions       enter into force
        Capacity Market           Start of publicly-
                                       offered                                                                               Creation of
                                 power coordination                                                                        Balancing Power
                                     operations                                                                                Market
       Procurement of
       Balancing Power

                                                                                                                                             Target
                                                                                                                                                Aim

Source: Partial excerpt from materials by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy                                                                 16
4. Overview of Capacity Market

        Revenue after creation of capacity market (image)                                                Transactions in capacity market (image)
                                                                                                                                             Guaranteed capacity       Guaranteed capacity
                                                                                                                                                   contracts                 contracts
                                                                                            Capacity                          Capacity        (provisional name)        (provisional name)
                                                                                            auction                           auction          enters into force            concludes
Power generation costs                   Income from power generation
                                                                                                                                                                                       Time
                                                             Mechanism that can be                   N-4            ・・・                  N-1               N (Actual supply/
                                                             used to earn a certain             (4 years prior)                     (1 year prior)          demand year)
                                                             level of income according
                                          Revenue from       to capacity (kW) to reliably                   Successful bidders (electric power operators, etc.)
 Variable costs                          electricity sales   supply electricity at peak
(Fuel costs, etc.)                        (only when in      times (not to cover all             kW value                            kW value                                   Payment
                                            operation)       fixed costs)                        Secured at one time                 Secured at one time

                                                                                                                        Market managers (OCCTO※)
            Fixed costs
      (depreciation costs, etc.           Revenue from capacity market
                                                                                                                                                             Invoice      Collection

                                                                                                 Retail electricity utilities and general transmission and distribution operators
    In operation      Not in operation      In operation     Not in operation

                                                                                            ※Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators                    17
4. Secure Neutrality of Network Sectors: Legal Unbundling
  ⚫   From April 2020, general power transmission and distribution operators need to be separated from
      generators and retailer (legal unbundling).
  ⚫   Mainly, there are two methods that can be considered as ways to execute legal unbundling: (1) holding
      company and (2) power generation/retail parent company.

                          ①Holding company                ②Power generation/retail parent company
➢ Establishment of power transmission and                     ➢ Establish transmission and distribution
  distribution company and retail company under a               company under a power generation
  holding company (TEPCO voluntarily implemented                company and retail company
  a spin-off using this system in April 2016)

                          Holding company
                                                                        Power
                                                                                           Retail
                                                                      generation
                                 Power
       Power generation

                           transmission and                                       Power
                              distribution                                  transmission and
                           (Power transmission                                 distribution
                                                 Retail

                              and distribution                              (Power transmission
                                 facility)                                     and distribution
                                                                                  facility)
                             (Power system
                               operation)                                     (Power system
                                                                                operation)

  *Also possible to create a power generation                   * Also possible to create a power generation
    company and retail company as the same                        company and retail company as separate
    company.                                                      companies, one of which becomes a
                                                                  subsidiary of another                     18
Thank you for your attention!

                                19
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