Regional Skills Investment Plan - for the south of Scotland ENTERPRISE & SKILLS SOUTH OF SCOTLAND ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP - Skills Development Scotland
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Foreword
1
Introduction
2
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
3
Labour market demand
in the south of Scotland
4
Labour market supply in
the south of Scotland
5
Stakeholder insights
from partners, young
people & employers
6
Skills priorities and
principles – mission,
strategic outcomes, and
areas of action
7
Action plan for 2019-22
ENTERPRISE & SKILLS
SOUTH OF SCOTLAND
Regional Skills Investment Plan
ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP
8
Governance
for the south of Scotland
Appendices &
Acknowledgements
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Foreword
1
Introduction
2
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
3
Labour market demand
in the south of Scotland
4
Labour market supply in
the south of Scotland
5
Stakeholder insights
from partners, young
people & employers
6
Skills priorities and
principles – mission,
strategic outcomes, and
areas of action
7
Action plan for 2019-22
8
Governance
Appendices &
Acknowledgements
Homepage
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1
Foreword
We are pleased to publish this In the interim the south of Developing the Regional Skills • direct engagement with local Structure of the Regional
Regional Skills Investment Plan Scotland Economic Partnership Investment Plan businesses and business Skills Investment Plan
(RSIP) for the south of Scotland. has recognised the strategic The development of the groups The remainder of this report is
This RSIP has been based on a
detailed assessment of the
economic and skills challenges
facing the south of Scotland and
need to establish an RSIP for the
south of Scotland as one of its
key early commitments. The RSIP
sets out our collective and
underpinning evidence base has
used a wide range of approaches
and sources to inform the RSIP
• workshops and focus groups
with young people in the
region including school,
formatted as follows:
• labour market demand in
the south of Scotland –
1
Introduction
Introduction on deep engagement with agreed understanding of
including:
college and university analysing the current and
businesses, people and partners • the development of a detailed students. future demand for labour in
2
in the region. • the demand for skills and evidence base report – based the region with a sub-regional
people in the short and This research provided the basis
on existing data analysis
The RSIP is evidence based – medium term for a set of conclusions and
• one to one interviews and strategic issues which were • labour market supply in the Rural context of
and should be read alongside the south of Scotland
the accompanying south of • current people and skills workshops with stakeholders discussed, prioritised and agreed south of Scotland – analysing
Scotland RSIP evidence base supply, and the gaps between across the south of Scotland by the SOSEP. the current and future supply
3
report, which presents a wide supply and current and future of labour in the region
range of primary and secondary demand
• stakeholder insights from
evidence, developed from May to • the people and skills priorities partners, young people and Labour market demand
December 2018, and which sets that enterprise and skills in the south of Scotland
employers – analysing key
out the main conclusions and agencies and the skills system skills issues from stakeholder
strategic insights that have should seek to address. Figure 1.1: Research approach
4
interviews and workshops
informed this RSIP and its
associated action plan. The RSIP sets out a clear set of • mission, strategic outcomes,
commitments and actions that
Developing the RSIP for south of Scotland
areas for action and Labour market supply in
The RSIP has been partners will deliver in support of principles – setting out the the south of Scotland
commissioned by the South of the Skills Investment Plan and also The RSIP development process has been facilitated by SDS and ambitions of the RSIP
Scotland Economic Partnership provides:
5
supported and shaped by the SOSEP Education and Skills group
(SOSEP) and its Education and • action plan for 2019-22
Skills theme group, prior to the • an agreed baseline to monitor Socio economic – detailing specific actions
establishment of the new South future progress baseline and commitments that the Stakeholder insights
of Scotland Enterprise (SOSE) Key partner Conclusions RSIP will deliver on in the next from partners, young
agency on 1 April 2020. SOSE • proposals for clear people & employers
interviews Action plan three years
will be charged with improving governance, delivery and Emerging RSIP implementation
reporting arrangements. Stakeholder
6
productivity, and delivering findings and monitoring • focus on equalities – outlining
engagement
inclusive economic growth how the plan will seek to
Strategic
across the region, and the RSIP Communities of issues
address inequalities in the
interest south of Scotland Skills priorities and
will support these objectives by principles – mission,
addressing key skills challenges Employer • governance – setting out how strategic outcomes, and
in the south of Scotland. interviews and areas of action
the RSIP will be effectively
research
governed.
A detailed description of the organisations and groups that have
engaged with the research is presented in Appendix 1. 7
Action plan for 2019-22
8
Governance
Appendices &
Acknowledgements
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2
Foreword
Implications for the Regional • the region is diverse and the
Skills Investment Plan appetite for risk amongst
small and micro businesses is
• the south of Scotland is
different compared to other
parts of Scotland and
low. Strong two-way
engagement is required to
find creative solutions to
1
Introduction
Rural context internally within the region address skills challenges
facing businesses in the
of the south of • there are a wide range of
2
place-specific factors which region
Scotland present challenges and • there are several non-skills
therefore require a bespoke issues which will indirectly Rural context of
response impact on the region’s labour the south of Scotland
• the region is particularly market skills challenges
3
vulnerable to changes in the • there are some clear and
external environment, which consistent policy messages,
have an impact on access to and the RSIP will ensure it is Labour market demand
skilled labour, and lacks the consistent with, and in the south of Scotland
necessary levels of resilience supportive of, wider policy
to respond effectively to these priorities.
challenges
• agriculture and land-based
industries are crucially
4
Labour market supply in
the south of Scotland
important to the economy in
the south of Scotland, but are
facing a potential reduction in
farming subsidies and greater
difficulty accessing skills
because of Brexit and
5
Stakeholder insights
from partners, young
demographic factors people & employers
In developing this RSIP, it is crucially important to reflect the specific
character and nature of the region, and consequently the research
6
Skills priorities and
has been undertaken through a ‘rural lens’. This perspective is based principles – mission,
firmly on the data and evidence presented later in this report. strategic outcomes, and
areas of action
7
Action plan for 2019-22
1.2% of the region's employers report skills shortages and hard to fill vacancies
- higher than the national average
8
Governance
Appendices &
Acknowledgements
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2
Foreword
A rural reflection • agriculture and land-based • the demographic challenge. In • economic underperformance Other key factors include:
The south of Scotland is different industries are crucially Scotland, the rural population of many rural areas in terms of
important sectors to the wider is increasing slower and Gross Value Added (GVA) • the need for appropriate
not only from urban Scotland but
1
economy, but are facing ageing faster than urban output, wages, scale of employment opportunities for
also from other parts of rural
potential reductions in farming Scotland. This presents a businesses, productivity spouse/partner
Scotland such as the Highlands
and Islands. In addition to this subsidies and greater range of skills-related levels, levels of research and • the availability of a range of Introduction
difficulties in accessing skilled challenges and potentially development/innovation and
Rural context complexity, it is different within the
region. For example, there are big labour because of Brexit and opportunities for the future qualification levels compared
housing and tenure options
of the south of differences between the northern demographic factors to the Scotland average. • good quality education
2
• employment patterns are facilities for children (including
part of the Scottish Borders with
Scotland its links to Edinburgh, and the
• there is a reliance on major
employers in certain
different in rural areas. For
example, there are higher
These points set a high-level
context within which the RSIP has
childcare)
continued small towns and villages along the
Nith Valley or coastal villages in
communities, notably public incidences of self- been developed and will be • availability of social and
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
sector and manufacturing employment, part-time delivered. We would also note that leisure amenities
Wigtownshire and Berwickshire.
jobs, and this can create employment, portfolio the above does not describe
3
increased vulnerability for working, and home-working some of the wider social issues • access to mobile and
“…..neither a suburb of the Central
communities if these compared to urban Scotland such as fuel poverty, remoteness, broadband of sufficient
Belt nor a mirror of the Highlands
employers down-size or enter or access to services. speed and coverage
and Islands - but a place with Labour market demand
administration • there are higher incidences of
distinctive shape, culture, dynamic Although these are not direct in the south of Scotland
young people moving away Interdependencies
and set of values”. Delegate at a skills issues, they must be
• seasonal and part-time from home to work or study There is also a range of wider
stakeholder event1 addressed in order to maximise
4
working can act as a due to the (perceived) limited factors, which although not
disincentive to training local opportunities the positive impact of the RSIP in
There are some significant strictly skills issues, will
meeting the themes and actions
aspects of the rural nature2 of the nevertheless impact on the
• the appetite for risk is low • community learning and outlined later in this document. If Labour market supply in
south of Scotland that are worth region’s ability to access and the south of Scotland
amongst small and micro development (CLD) activities they are not addressed then the
highlighting: retain individuals.
employers, and businesses are crucially important in RSIP will be less likely to be fully
5
• the skills markets tend to be lack the necessary levels of enabling vulnerable or There is a widely recognised4 successful.
'shallow and dispersed', which resilience to respond disadvantaged groups to number of key factors which
effectively to changes and engage in learning in rural It will therefore be important that
means that there are generally need to be in place to attract and
skills challenges in the areas the issues are addressed within Stakeholder insights
small numbers of individuals retain skilled workers in the from partners, young
external environment the wider SOSEP and emerging
in one or more skills areas region. These factors could have people & employers
• there are significantly greater SOSE structures, with clear lines
across a wide geographic opposite impacts; for example,
• susceptibility to a ‘hard’ Brexit. numbers of second homes/ of responsibility across partners
6
area. As a result there will be having good quality jobs with
There appears to be a high holiday homes in rural areas and regular communication
insufficient demand to support good career prospects may be a
reliance on overseas workers which puts added pressure on around progress.
traditional education and skills pull factor, but a lack of
in sectors which are important the housing available for local Skills priorities and
interventions appropriate and affordable
to the rural economy (primary/ people, as well as impacting principles – mission,
housing may act as a push factor. strategic outcomes, and
• there is an over-reliance on hospitality/ food/land-based on overall house prices
areas of action
certain (commercial) sectors industries) as well as in the The main non-direct skills issue
public sector (health and • the scale and nature of labour
such as primary industries, for the south of Scotland is
education3). The outcome of market demand will have a
tourism, and food and drink. transport; with issues around
This can manifest in issues
such as seasonality, part-time
employment, low skills base,
the current negotiations could
have a major impact on the
future supply of skills and
direct impact on the
availability of college and
university level opportunities,
and there can also be
cost, reliability and regularity. The
transport issue applies to both
access to education and access
7
Action plan for 2019-22
low levels of innovation delivery of services to employment. The distance
accommodation costs
some individuals must travel in
depending on the home
8
the south of Scotland to access
location of students
training and education can be a
barrier to engagement.
1
Paper on SOSEP Key Messages to the Cabinet Secretary, 23rd August 2018 Governance
2
See also https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2018/10/4125/downloads#res541245
3
As per Scottish Borders Council.
See also https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2018/3/20/The-impact-of-Brexit-on-Scotland-s-Growth-Sectors-1# and
https://www.sruc.ac.uk/downloads/file/3603/december_cpg_briefing_-_the_rural_workforce 4
From stakeholder interviews and see also https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2018/10/4125/downloads#res541245
Appendices &
Acknowledgements
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2
Foreword
Strategy and policy • Local Authority Economic • Skills Development Scotland There will also be strategic
environment Development Strategies and the Scottish Funding linkages to other initiatives
There is a complex and far Council to share information across the region. As noted
1
• Edinburgh and South-East to better align skills demand previously Brexit will have an
reaching strategy and policy
Scotland City Region Deal and supply impact on certain sectors within
environment at national, regional
and local authority level which • Skills Action Plan for Rural the south of Scotland. As the
• ensure awareness of and Introduction
actions in the RSIP are taken
Rural context will have some bearing on the
shape and outcomes of the RSIP.
Areas access to the widest possible forward it is important that the
range of work opportunities
of the south of • Community Learning and plan is flexible enough to take
2
A detailed policy analysis is Development (CLD) for young people account of the implications of
Scotland outside the scope of this
commission; however, it will be • Skills Development Scotland • identify and develop options, Brexit. Some further sectoral
impact analysis will be required
continued important to ensure the RSIP is Equalities Action Plan for articulation and transition
routes into/between college/ for the land based sectors,
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
consistent with, and supportive Modern Apprenticeships in tourism, hospitality, education
Scotland. university and into work
of, the wider policy architecture. and health and social care, as
The current policy environment
covers economic development,
planning, skills, community,
employability, transport, etc.
From a rural perspective, there
are some clear and consistent
strategic pointers from the policy
• support opportunities for
graduates into work
• up-skill/equip individuals in
these sectors are likely to be
worst affected in terms of
availability of skilled labour.
3
Labour market demand
This would link to the work of the in the south of Scotland
frameworks, namely: the existing workforce with
However, there can be a tension Brexit response team set up
between national policy priorities • central focus on economic higher level technical and under the farming, fisheries,
and local/regional need. At a
strategic level there is a clear
policy focus to support inclusive
growth and employment, but
with the focus on inclusive
and sustainable growth
digital skills
• build capacity within existing
businesses
forestry and land management
work stream within the SOSEP
work plan, with a link into the
4
Labour market supply in
economic growth with skills seen ‘key sectors’ group. The impact the south of Scotland
as a key driver of growth. • recognition of rural • focus on equality and diversity of Brexit on skills will also
interdependences and
5
across the key areas of action. continue to be reviewed by
From an RSIP perspective the accessibility issues
partners on the Education and
key policy references5 will be: The RSIP will also link to other
• the primacy of specific sectors Skills theme group.
parts of the SOSEP work plan Stakeholder insights
• the Enterprise and Skills (e.g. primary, food, tourism) from partners, young
and emerging projects as follows: The challenges set by the rural
Review people & employers
• the crucial nature of the nature of the region and the
• establish college Learning and
• consultation and development natural environment. sub-regional variations cannot be
6
Skills Network ‘hub and
documents for the SOSE underestimated. RSIP actions
In addition, the development of spoke’ model
must develop solutions which are
• Borderlands Growth Deal the RSIP is one of the key actions appropriate to this rural context.
• create a regional tourism Skills priorities and
in the SOSEP work plan, and it innovation and skills action principles – mission,
• Inclusive Growth strategic outcomes, and
will align to the key areas for plan linked to the tourism SIP
action in the Education and Skills areas of action
• 15-24 Learner Journey
section of that work plan, as • establish regional textiles
• Commission on Widening follows: centre of excellence and
Access
• Curriculum for Excellence
• map learning and skills
provision across the south of
Scotland
training centre
• strengthen and streamline
business support (with a focus
7
Action plan for 2019-22
on skills)
• support south of Scotland
Rural Skills and
Entrepreneurship project.
8
Governance
A full list of relevant policy/ strategy documents is provided in the main evidence report.
5
Appendices &
Acknowledgements
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3
Foreword
Implications for the Regional • the overall number of jobs in
Skills Investment Plan the area is projected to
decline over the next 10 years
• the region has a high reliance
on certain sectors7 for the
majority of employment.
These include wholesale and
with 40,500 openings coming
from replacement demand.
A key challenge for the region
1
Introduction
Labour market retail; health and social work; will be how to create
expansion growth and ensure
demand in the agriculture, forestry and
2
fishing, manufacturing, that the skills are available for
south of Scotland6 hospitality and tourism. It is these opportunities
important that the RSIP can • there are fewer higher value Rural context of
help deliver skills provision in jobs available and this can be the south of Scotland
these areas a disincentive for couples and
families moving into the
• most of the prominent sectors
in the south of Scotland are
characterised by low wages. It
is important that individuals
region, where only one
partner may be able to secure
a higher value role
3
Labour market demand
in the south of Scotland
have the opportunity to • the sub-regional analysis
develop and progress into highlights a number of
more highly skilled roles
where possible
• as well as job specific skills,
similarities but also differences
across the south of Scotland.
Therefore, the RSIP must
4
Labour market supply in
develop flexible solutions the south of Scotland
‘meta skills’ or ‘cross-cutting’
skills in all sectors and which reflect this
occupations are important as
these will increasingly be
embedded across all jobs
• unemployment appears low in
some of the sub-regions, but
this could be because people
5
Stakeholder insights
from partners, young
are choosing to leave these
people & employers
areas.
6
Skills priorities and
principles – mission,
strategic outcomes, and
areas of action
7
Action plan for 2019-22
7% of residents travel to work in Edinburgh and the Lothians
8
Governance
6
See also: https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-we-do/skills-planning/regional-skills-assessments/
7
Defined as ‘Total Employment (jobs)’ in 2018, covering health and social care; education; construction; tourism and traditional manufacturing
Appendices &
Acknowledgements
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3
Foreword
Current skills demand An analysis of the sectoral skilled trades roles is higher east of England, while 1% of
A detailed and comprehensive composition in the south of than the Scottish average, whilst residents travel to Carlisle and
socio-economic and skills Scotland shows that some the percentage of people in the north west of England.
analysis is included in the
evidence base report and the
key messages are highlighted
sectors are over-represented
compared to the Scottish
average. Manufacturing for
example makes up 10%
professional occupations is lower.
Overall, the region has lower
levels of employment in
higher level occupations,
There are also higher levels of
self-employment, 17.3% in the
south of Scotland compared to
1
Introduction
Labour market below. This section sets out
current labour demand in the of total employment in the region and higher levels of employment 11% in Scotland.
demand in the south of Scotland, alongside compared to 7% of in lower level occupations. These Productivity (GVA per job) is
south of Scotland
continued
available projections on future
labour demand. This draws on
national statistics including data
total employment at a Scottish
level, whilst employment in
agriculture, forestry and fishing
lower level occupations are
typically lower skilled and lower
waged roles. The challenge then
lower overall than the Scottish
average (£40,200 compared to
£47,800 for Scotland), and this is
2
Rural context of
provided in Skills Development was approximately four times is around how to create more largely due to sectoral strengths the south of Scotland
Scotland's Regional Skills higher in the south of Scotland higher value roles in the region in lower output industries.
Assessment for the south of compared to Scotland (location and to promote career
Scotland.
The total regional employment
(measured by the number of jobs)
quotient of 4.2).
In addition, some sectors are
under-represented in the south
progression into these roles.
Wage levels across the region
are less than the Scottish
However, the information &
communication and financial &
insurance activities sectors in the
3
Labour market demand
of Scotland compared to the south of Scotland are more in the south of Scotland
is estimated to be 126,100 in Scottish average. These include average. From 2008-18, productive in the region (in terms
2018, an increase of 0.1% on 2017. the following sectors: workplace and resident wages in of GVA per job) than in Scotland
The four largest employing
sectors are:
• wholesale and retail –
• financial and insurance (1% vs
3% at Scottish level)
both Dumfries and Galloway and
the Scottish Borders have risen
(10% and 7.3% for Dumfries and
overall (£18,900 higher and
£6,400 higher respectively).
Care should be taken when
4
Labour market supply in
Galloway, and 26.6% and 12.5% interpreting this analysis as these the south of Scotland
19,900 jobs • information and in Scottish Borders respectively),
communication (1% vs 3% at a sectors are small within the
as have wages across Scotland
5
• human health and social work Scottish level) region which could be affecting
(both 21%). Both resident and the result.
– 19,600 jobs
• professional, scientific and workplace earnings in the region
• agriculture, forestry and technical (5% vs 7% at a are below the Scottish average. It An analysis of business and Stakeholder insights
is not possible to provide a enterprise levels shows that from partners, young
fishing – 12,500 jobs Scottish level). people & employers
sub-regional split of wage levels. there has been an increase in the
• manufacturing - 12,300 jobs. The research’s consultations also Further research would be useful number of businesses in the area
The research also identified the
importance of the following
sectors to the region’s economy:
highlighted the importance of
health and social work,
agriculture, forestry & fishing,
in this area.
The region is highly self-
contained with most residents
(up 6% compared to 2010), but
this has been a slower rate of
growth than Scotland.
6
Skills priorities and
manufacturing, tourism, food & principles – mission,
• accommodation and food drink, textiles, and retail to the working locally. Overall 86% of strategic outcomes, and
residents live and work in the areas of action
services (tourism)– 9,400 jobs region.
south of Scotland. 7% of south of
• education – 8,800 jobs By occupation, the greatest Scotland residents travel to work
7
number of jobs in the region are in Edinburgh and Lothians and
• construction – 8,400 jobs in skilled trades (19,600 people), this is largely due to the proximity
• professional, scientific and professional (19,500 people) and of the Scottish Borders to
Action plan for 2019-22
technical activities – 6,500 elementary occupations (16,000 Edinburgh and surrounding
jobs. people). The percentage of areas. 1% of residents travel to
people in elementary and Northumberland and the north
8
Governance
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Acknowledgements
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Table 1: Projected change in jobs by sector 2018-2028
3
Foreword
Future skills demand8 The manufacturing (-300 jobs) Expansion Replacement Job Openings
The total number of jobs is and other service activities (-100
Agriculture, forestry and fishing -700 8,600 7,900
expected to decline across the jobs) sectors are expected to be
region over the next ten years by
2% (-2,300 jobs), compared to a
3% increase across Scotland9.
the only ones that experience an
overall contraction from 2018 to
2028.
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, steam etc
-100
-1,900
-100
0
1,600
200
0
-300
100
1
Introduction
Labour market The largest forecast decline is
projected in manufacturing
By occupation, the changing Water supply; sewerage, waste etc -100 600 500
profile of jobs in the south of
demand in the (-1,900 jobs); agriculture, forestry
2
Scotland is forecast to boost Construction 700 2,000 2,600
and fishing (-700 jobs) and public
south of Scotland admin & defence (-600 jobs).
construction and cultural, media
and sport occupations. From
Wholesale and retail trade -200 8,800 8,600
continued However, forecasts estimate that 2018 to 2028 skilled construction
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and food service
-200
100
2,600
4,100
2,400
4,200
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
there will be 38,200 job and building trades are forecast
openings in the region in total to experience the biggest Information and communication 100 0 100
between 2018 and 2028, driven
entirely by replacement demand
(the need to replace workers
leaving the labour market).
increase in employment (300
additional workers). Other
occupations forecast to see a rise
in employment include culture,
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific technical
0
0
400
0
0
0
0
0
400
3
Labour market demand
in the south of Scotland
media and sports (200 people); Administrative and support 400 2,100 2,500
The greatest number of forecast business and public service service
job openings by 2028 are
expected in (see Table 1):
• wholesale and retail trade
professionals (100 people) and
business and public, service
associate professionals (100
Public administration and defence
Education
Human health and social work
-600
0
-300
1,500
2,700
3,600
900
2,700
3,300
4
Labour market supply in
people). the south of Scotland
(8,600 jobs) Arts, entertainment and recreation 400 2,100 2,600
The greatest declines in
• agriculture, forestry and
5
Other service activities -100 0 -100
occupations are those most
fishing (7,900 jobs)
closely associated with the Total -2,300 40,500 38,200
• accommodation and food manufacturing sector. Process, Stakeholder insights
services (4,200 jobs – plant and machine operatives Source: SDS/Oxford Economics, 2018 from partners, young
including tourism) (400 people) and skilled metal people & employers
and electrical trades (400
6
• human health and social work people) are forecast to see the
(3,300 jobs). largest contractions.
Skills priorities and
principles – mission,
strategic outcomes, and
areas of action
7
Action plan for 2019-22
8
Source: SDS/Oxford Economics, 2018
8
Governance
9
Note, these forecasts are based on a 'policy neutral' position and are likely to change positively through the work of the new
south of Scotland agency, actions taken through SOSEP and other new interventions such as Borderlands
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3
Foreword
Sub regional profiles10 School leavers are also more Central Towns has a relatively average. School leavers are less
The main evidence base report likely to go on to a positive less well-educated population likely to go on to a positive
provides a detailed assessment destination than average, and are with a lower than average destination, however, of those
of the sub-regional economic
profiles. A summary overview is
presented below and addresses
more likely to go on to college or
university.
Central Towns
percentage of people being
educated to degree level, and
the proportion with no
qualifications higher than
that do, higher education is the
most common option.
East Coastal Scottish Borders
1
Introduction
Labour market some supply side issues. Lists of
the sub-regional areas can be Central Towns encompasses average. School leavers are as East Coastal Scottish Borders is a
demand in the viewed in Appendix 2, and maps most of the medium sized towns likely as the Scottish average to small, mainly rural area on the
south of Scotland
continued
are available in the evidence-
based report.
Border District
in the Scottish Borders, inclusive
of Duns, Galashiels, Hawick,
Jedburgh, Kelso, Melrose,
Peebles, Langholm and Selkirk.
go on to a positive destination,
with college being the most
common destination.
east coast, the major settlement
of which is Eyemouth. It has a
small population that has declined
slightly in recent years, and has a
2
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
The Border District is a rural area It has a relatively large but static Coastal Dumfries & Galloway high pensionable age population.
in the southern Scottish Borders. population, with a low working Coastal Dumfries & Galloway is a
3
age and high pensionable age largely rural area, inclusive of the Employment has remained static
It has a small, but growing
population compared to the towns of Stranraer, Newton overall since 2010, with increases
population, but with a particularly
Scottish average. Stewart, Kirkcudbright and Castle in arts, entertainment, recreation,
high proportion of people of Labour market demand
Douglas. It has a relatively large, and other services and business
pensionable age. in the south of Scotland
Employment growth has been static population with a low administration & support services
There has been strong growth slight since 2010, with increases proportion of working age offset by declines in manufacturing.
in employment since 2010 of
around 1,000 jobs, with growth
concentrated in the health, arts,
entertainment, recreation, and
concentrated in professional,
scientific & technical,
manufacturing, arts,
entertainment, recreation, and
people and a high proportion of
those of pensionable age.
The area has seen slight
Wholesale is the key strength of
the region due to the presence of
fruit and vegetable and seafood
wholesalers.
4
Labour market supply in
the south of Scotland
other services sectors. other services employment, employment growth in recent
offset by declines in health years, with growth concentrated East Coastal Scottish Borders
5
This growth has been offset by a employment. in health and hospitality. The has a low unemployment rate,
decline in manufacturing which main strength of the area is in considerably below the Scottish
has been a key strength of the Retail is a key industry in Central tourism, with strong level. Youth unemployment is
Stakeholder insights
region. Health is a key industry, Towns, which is unsurprising due accommodation & food services very low, with significant from partners, young
primarily due to the Borders to its urban nature and these and retail sectors, as well as decreases since 2013. East people & employers
General Hospital which is located towns act as hubs for outlying strengths in manufacturing and Coastal Scottish Borders has an
6
there. rural areas. Manufacturing is the education. education make-up similar than
other key industry, with the major the Scottish average, although
There is a very low level of examples being the textile The area has a low level of with slightly more people with no
unemployment that has been manufacturing in Hawick and fish unemployment below the qualifications. School leavers are Skills priorities and
below the Scottish level since principles – mission,
processing in Duns. Scottish level and has seen a less likely than the Scottish strategic outcomes, and
2013. Youth unemployment is reduction in recent years. Youth average to go on to a positive areas of action
also very low (0.5%), having fallen Central Towns has a higher rate unemployment is very low having destination, although university is
significantly since 2013. of unemployment than the other fallen significantly in recent years. the most common destination of
sub-regions, however, this is still
7
those that do have a positive
The Border District has a well- below the Scottish rate. Youth Coastal Dumfries & Galloway has destination.
educated population, with the unemployment is low; however, it a comparatively less well-
proportion of people with degree is comparably higher than the educated population, with those Action plan for 2019-22
level qualifications above the other sub-regions and the with no qualifications
Scottish average, and those with Scottish average. considerably above the Scottish
no qualifications below the
8
average, and those with degree
Scottish average. level qualifications also below the
Governance
10
See main Evidence Report for geographic profiles
Appendices &
AcknowledgementsHomepage
Previous Next
3
Foreword
Eastern Dumfries & Galloway There has been a slight decline unemployment since 2013 when In terms of school leavers, higher • in parallel to this, a key
Eastern Dumfries & Galloway is a in employment in the sub-region, the rate was above the Scottish education is by far the most challenge is then how to
largely rural area, including the with a broad-based fall across a average. Youth unemployment common destination, achieve future expansion
settlements of Lockerbie, Moffat,
Gretna and Annan. It has a
relatively large, static population,
number of sectors. The key
sectors in Greater Dumfries are
retail and health, with Dumfries
acting as a hub for services for
is low; however, it is above the
Scottish level and is the highest
of the rural sub-regions. The
considerably higher than the
Scottish average and the other
sub-regions.
growth through new types of
employers and new skills.
While there will be
opportunities in higher value
1
Introduction
Labour market with a high proportion of people
of pensionable age. outlying rural communities.
region has a comparatively less
well-educated population, with Skills implications areas such energy,
demand in the a low level of degree level The socio-economic analysis has renewables or ICT there is a
2
The area has seen strong Greater Dumfries has the highest qualifications and high levels of highlighted some key factors that need to improve the
south of Scotland employment growth in recent rate of unemployment of the
sub-regions, however, this is still
no qualifications. will impact on the RSIP: understanding of these and
years, particularly in professional, design a local offer
continued scientific and technical below the Scottish average. School leavers in the area are • a high number of jobs are low
waged and low skilled, and
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
employment. The key strength of Youth unemployment, while more likely to go on to a positive • unemployment appears to be
relatively low, is the highest of destination than the Scottish this is a limiter on sustained low in the sub-regions, but
the area is manufacturing,
3
any sub-region, and above the average, with higher education economic growth and this could be because people
particularly fish processing,
Scottish average. Greater being the most popular productivity within the region are choosing to leave these
however, the closure of the
Pinney’s fish processing plant in Dumfries has a slightly less destination. • the majority of job openings areas to access work,
Labour market demand
Annan will likely have a well-educated population than are forecast to occur in education or training in the south of Scotland
the Scottish average, with more North Border elsewhere. There are also
considerable negative impact. wholesale and retail trade,
people with no qualifications, and North Border has a medium sized pockets of entrenched
agriculture, forestry and
The area has a low unemployment
rate that has seen a considerable
decline and youth unemployment
is also very low following a steep
fewer with degree level
qualifications. School leaver
destinations are broadly similar
population that has seen very
strong growth since 2010, with a
low level of people of
pensionable age, and high
fishing, accommodation and
food services and human
health and social work.
worklessness and
unemployment in some areas. 4
Labour market supply in
to the Scottish average, with the Together, these sectors are the south of Scotland
decline in recent years. most common destination being proportion of children compared
to the other sub-regions. forecast to require over
higher education.
5
Eastern Dumfries & Galloway has 24,000 jobs
a comparatively less well- North and Rural Dumfries The sub-region has seen strong
growth in employment in recent • there are fewer higher value
educated population, with a & Galloway Stakeholder insights
years, with growth in arts, jobs available and this can act
much higher proportion of North and Rural Dumfries & from partners, young
entertainment, recreation & other as a disincentive for couples
people with no qualifications and Galloway is a small, largely rural people & employers
services likely due to the Stobo and families seeking to move
a much lower proportion with area, inclusive of the small towns into the area, where only one
6
degree level qualifications. The of Sanquhar and Kelloholm/ Health Spa near Peebles. The
large gap between the working partner may be able to secure
region has the highest rate of Kirkconnel. The area has seen a
age population and employment a higher value role
positive school leaver slight population decline in
destinations among the sub- likely indicates that a substantial Skills priorities and
recent years and has a large • further work around sectoral principles – mission,
regions, with a broadly even split proportion of people of portion of residents are and occupational analysis for strategic outcomes, and
between those going on to pensionable age. There has been commuting to Edinburgh and overall employment would areas of action
college and university. strong growth in employment in Midlothian for work. help to identify the types of
recent years particularly in job openings in the region
Greater Dumfries The area has a very low
Greater Dumfries encompasses
Dumfries, the largest settlement
in the region, and outlying rural
manufacturing and accommodation
& food services, which are also
key strengths of the regions,
particularly the Browns Brothers
unemployment rate. Youth
unemployment is also very low
with a considerable fall in recent
and this could be considered
as part of future research
activity. Unfortunately, the
forecasts do not provide any
7
Action plan for 2019-22
areas. Since 2010, the area has years. North Border has the most
meat processing plant. highly educated population of all strong insights as to the types
seen slight population growth
of job openings in each sector
8
and has a high working age The area has a low the sub-regions, with those
educated to degree level and this should perhaps be
population compared to the rest unemployment rate and has
considerably higher than the one of the key future issues
of the sub-regions. seen the strongest reduction in
Scottish average. for consideration Governance
Appendices &
AcknowledgementsHomepage
Previous Next
4
Foreword
Implications for the Regional • despite enrolments in
Skills Investment Plan university level courses in the
1
region, the majority of South
• the population is relatively of Scotland residents
stable but it is ageing undertake degrees outwith
alongside declining numbers the region. Access to current Introduction
Labour market of young people, resulting in a university level provision is
shrinking labour force. The
supply in the variable across the region
2
RSIP will need to consider
south of ways in which the impact of
this can be mitigated, such as
• the south of Scotland has a
sizeable proportion of the
Scotland11 encouraging older residents population qualified below Rural context of
the south of Scotland
to stay in the labour market for SCQF Level 7 than the
longer Scottish average. Access to
3
education is a contributor to
• Brexit has the potential of this, alongside the high
creating skills shortages in all number of lower skilled jobs. It
sectors, but this could be Labour market demand
is important that provision and in the south of Scotland
more acute in areas such as funding is sufficiently flexible
health and social care; to address these issues and
4
agriculture and land based challenges
sectors, hospitality and
tourism • there is an under-
representation of Labour market supply in
• there are high levels of the south of Scotland
apprenticeships in the region
economic activity with low and continued work is needed
5
unemployment, including to increase the uptake of
amongst young people – with work-based learning
both positive and negative opportunities such as Modern,
consequences Stakeholder insights
Foundation and Graduate from partners, young
Apprenticeships. These offers people & employers
• Community Learning and
Development (CLD) activities will provide good quality
6
are crucially important in employment and progression
supporting vulnerable and opportunities for young people
disadvantaged groups and • as most post-school students Skills priorities and
individuals to engage in are in college (87%) it would principles – mission,
learning and to progress into strategic outcomes, and
seem appropriate in the future areas of action
work. The third sector plays a to work collaboratively to
key role here promote and expand other
education pathways as
7
• up-skilling and re-skilling are
critically important and will alternatives – more local/
have an impact on the type of apprenticeship/new work-
provision required in the based learning models Action plan for 2019-22
region. The RSIP should • while the overall workforce is
consider this. less well educated, school
The south of Scotland enjoys a global reputation for its textiles and knitwear
leavers are now around the
national average. 8
Governance
Source: SDS/Oxford Economics; National Records of Scotland; UKCES Employer Survey (2017)
11
Appendices &
AcknowledgementsHomepage
Previous Next
4
Foreword
Population and skills supply • Internal Labour Organisation The overall labour force is • across the south of Scotland and productivity levels of the
This section sets out current (ILO) unemployment rate was shrinking and as a result there is region, 92.5% of 16 to 19-year wider population and increase
labour market supply in the south 4% in 2017/18, which is one a need to make use of the skills olds were in participating the proportion of the over 65’s
of Scotland. This draws on
national statistics including data
provided in Skills Development
percentage point higher than
the Scotland rate but in line
with the UK rate
of the whole population
(including older people and
those disengaged from the
labour market) to ensure
statuses (education,
employment or other training
and development), higher
than the national figure (91.8%
remaining in the labour market.
However, this in itself will not be
enough to tackle the skills
challenges ahead, and therefore
1
Introduction
Labour market Scotland's Regional Skills
Assessments.
• Department for Work and employers have access to skilled for Scotland). The majority of attracting and retaining those of
Pensions (DWP) out-of-work
supply in the labour in the future. High levels 16 to 19-year olds in the region working age into the region will
2
The region’s population was benefit claimants index was in of economic activity and low in 2018 (69%) were be crucially important. A further
south of 264,200 in 2017, with 156,600
(59%) of working age (16-64
line with the Scottish rate from
2008-18
unemployment exacerbate this participating in education challenge is that partners of
issue, bringing an additional (school, further education or individuals who have taken, or
Scotland years old).
• 16 to 19-year olds not in tightness in the labour market. higher education). plan to take, higher value jobs in
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
continued • overall population change in employment, education or External talent attraction is
therefore likely to be required in Future labour market supply
the region, may not be able to
find jobs at a similar level, and
3
the region has been relatively training (NEET) rate was 3% in
tandem to wider skills utilisation The region’s population is this can be a disincentive to
flat, however the population is 2018, which is in line with the
across the labour market. projected to decline by 2% moving into the south of
ageing, with 25% aged 65 and Scottish average (Annual
between 2016-41. This is set Scotland. Labour market demand
above (compared to 19% in Participation Measure for 16 to The data also hides the labour against a national rise of 5% in in the south of Scotland
Scotland overall) 19-year olds, 2018) market challenges faced by Scotland. In addition, the working
• youth unemployment (16 to disadvantaged groups, such as age population (16-64) in the
4
• Dumfries and Galloway
24-year olds) overall has disabled people and care- south of Scotland region is
matched the Scottish
fallen in line with the Scottish experienced young people. Many estimated to decline by 15% over
population growth rate until
average. young people in rural areas face the same time period, which is Labour market supply in
2006 but has been declining
further challenges in accessing equivalent to a loss of 24,100 the south of Scotland
from 2011, whilst the Scottish
The region appears to perform employment, training and people. This is higher than the
Borders population growth
well overall against the Scottish education opportunities due to 4% decrease in the working age
5
rate has levelled off since 2007
average; however, the main the availability and affordability of population projected across
• the region has a lower challenge is around a growing transport. Community Learning Scotland.
percentage of its population aged-dependent group set and Development Partnerships Stakeholder insights
against a declining number of play a crucial role in supporting Other key points to note are that from partners, young
aged 20-24 and 25-44 than people & employers
the Scottish average. This is people of working age. This inclusive learning opportunities between 2016-41:
partly due to a high number of means that for every 100 people for individuals of all ages across
6
• the greatest increase in the
young people moving out of working in the south of Scotland the region. population will be among the
the region for higher education there are 42 who are not
In terms of education and over 75’s (73%)
at universities in other areas working, and this will have an Skills priorities and
impact on public services such as qualifications, the working age • every age category aged principles – mission,
or for other reasons
healthcare. This trend is set to population in the region has a under 65 is set to decline strategic outcomes, and
Analysing the employment status lower level of qualifications than areas of action
grow as mentioned below,
of the working age population, although this must be taken in Scotland as a whole. • the projected age
the region’s: context as not all people of dependency ratio is estimated
• only 36% of the region’s
• employment rate was 75% in
2017/18, which is in line with
the Scottish and UK figures
working age will be working, and
some people of non-working age
may be working. In addition,
working age population are
qualified at SCQF Level 7 or
above, compared to 44%
to increase to 65%, compared
to 43% in Scotland overall.
In order to counter the impact of
7
Action plan for 2019-22
unemployment may be low in across Scotland the ageing workforce and
some of the sub-regions, but this declining working age
8
may be due to people leaving to population, there is a need to
take up work, study or training maximise the employment rate
elsewhere.
Governance
Appendices &
AcknowledgementsHomepage
Previous Next
4
Foreword
Current skills provision challenge is to identify flexible • opportunities are provided in • Skills Development Scotland
Education provision methods of delivery that meet S3-S6 for some pupils to careers advisers and school
Further education (FE) and higher the current and future needs of undertake school work pastoral staff work with young
education (HE) provision is
delivered in both college and
university settings across the
employers, young people,
individuals of all ages and
existing employees. It must also
be flexible enough to address
experience placements
• school pupils in the senior
phase (S5-S6) are able to
people in schools to help
them with their career
choices. Schools offer a range
of careers information through
1
Introduction
Labour market south of Scotland. At the college
level, Borders College delivers skills challenges in the wider access work-based learning careers fairs, alternate
opportunities such as
supply in the from campus sites in Galashiels, environment, and to support pathways evenings, senior
2
articulation at all levels. There Foundation Apprenticeships phase information evenings
Hawick, Tweedbank and
South of Newtown St Boswells whilst needs to be a wider discussion • education departments will be and the My World of Work
around further developing the HE web portal (www.
Scotland Dumfries & Galloway College has
a presence in both Dumfries and offer in the region to attract and
taking forward five priority
areas for the senior phase myworldofwork.co.uk). The
Rural context of
the south of Scotland
continued Stranraer. The region is also retain talent. over the next three - five Career Management Skills
(CMS) approach is embedded
further served by the SRUC’s
3
School provision years. These will link to the
Barony campus, which sits on a RSIP actions and include: throughout the Skills
• there are 60 primary schools Development Scotland
working estate outside of Dumfries.
and nine secondary schools in – advice, information & services and enables people Labour market demand
In terms of university presence, the Scottish Borders. There guidance – skills to take control of their career in the south of Scotland
Heriot Watt has its School of are 98 primary schools and 16 development & tracking by acquiring a set of skills that
Textiles and Design in Galashiels, secondary schools in (My World of Work), careers, leads to successful career
and the Crichton campus – home
to University of Glasgow,
University of West of Scotland
Dumfries and Galloway
• all schools offer a curriculum
based on the national
information and advice
(including CES) and
personal support
planning
• the region has two
4
Labour market supply in
and the Open University – is entitlement Developing the Young the south of Scotland
guidelines for a Curriculum for Workforce groups that provide
based in Dumfries. SRUC’s
Excellence, which is overseen – provision – DYW, STEM, the link between school
5
Barony campus and the Glasgow
by Education Scotland, and senior phase curriculum pupils, parents, teachers and
School of Art also provides a
links to national policies for ‘offer’ and pathways, employers in order to support
higher education offering within
the 15-24 Learner Journey and schools and college the transition between school, Stakeholder insights
the region. It is important to note
Developing the Young articulation work or study. The education from partners, young
that colleges and universities are people & employers
Workforce (DYW) services work and plan in
also significant employers within – alignment – digital skills
the south of Scotland and do partnership with industry and
6
• across the schools, as young development, virtual
provide economic benefit to the people progress through the college.
learning, timetable
region. stages of Curriculum for alignment, transitions and
Excellence, they can study for Skills priorities and
The school, college, university, ‘Grow our own workforce’ principles – mission,
a flexible range of strategic outcomes, and
and work-based learning offers – leadership – collaboration,
qualifications to meet their areas of action
are outlined below. Skills partnerships, influence
needs based on Scottish
Development Scotland's
Credit Qualifications
Regional Skills Assessment – performance – data
7
Framework (SCQF) from Level
reports are used to inform collection across other
1 to level 7. Schools are
college and university provision priority areas; tracking
increasingly offering wider
through the Regional Outcome development Action plan for 2019-22
qualifications as part of a
Agreements. In addition, Skills
more flexible senior phase
Development Scotland works
pathway, including vocational
8
with key industry sectors to
courses, to recognise the full
discuss demand for
breadth of learning and skills
apprenticeships. The overall
development in the senior Governance
regional offer is roughly in line
phase
with industry demand, but the
Appendices &
AcknowledgementsHomepage
Previous Next
4
Foreword
College provision region, compared to just 6% at
• total Scottish Funding Council the national level
annual spend on colleges in
1
• for SRUC Barony Campus,
the region is around £20m
most of the enrolments (89%)
• the number of people are in agriculture and
accessing funded college horticulture subjects due to the Introduction
Labour market places across the south of focus on land based subject
areas
supply in the Scotland increased overall
south of
Scotland
from 10,610 in 2014/15 to 11,640
in 2016/17 (9.7% against 4.6%
increase at Scotland level). The
growth was at both HE and FE
• in the south of Scotland,
enrolments on engineering
subjects account for a smaller
2
Rural context of
share of total enrolments (4%) the south of Scotland
level. In 2016/17, 89% of college
continued enrolments across the region
than across Scotland (12%). The
3
region also has a smaller share
were at FE level. This varied
of science and maths
slightly by institution. For
enrolments (2% compared to
Borders College and Dumfries Labour market demand
3%). Borders College and
& Galloway College, HE in the south of Scotland
Dumfries & Galloway College
enrolments accounted for 12%
each have a slightly greater
and 13% of total enrolments
4
share of enrolments in
respectively. This is below the
construction subjects – 9%
Scottish average of 17%.
and 7% respectively, compared
Accurate comparisons of HE Labour market supply in
to 6% across Scotland
enrolments at SRUC are not the south of Scotland
possible here because of • compared with the national
different recording systems
5
average, the south of Scotland
has a greater share of
• in 2016/17, Dumfries &
enrolments in food technology
Galloway College had the Stakeholder insights
& catering – 9% compared with from partners, young
greatest share of college
4% nationally people & employers
enrolments in the region (50%).
The remaining enrolments • in 2016/17, overall success
were split by Borders College
(39%) and SRUC Barony
Campus (11%)
rates (across all levels of study)
varied across the region, with
68% of all students completing
6
Skills priorities and
successfully at Dumfries & principles – mission,
• health subjects accounted for strategic outcomes, and
Galloway College, 75% at
the greatest proportion of areas of action
Borders College and 89% at
student enrolments in the
SRUC Barony Campus. This
south of Scotland in 2016/17
compares to an overall success
7
(2,475 enrolments, 18% of all
rate for the sector of 73%
college enrolments in the
region). However, this also • 95% of 1,649 qualifiers
includes hair and beauty Action plan for 2019-22
combined from Borders
enrolments which would not College and Dumfries and
directly support the skills Galloway College had Increasing uptake of work-based learning - including Scottish Apprenticeships -
shortages in the health care
sector. The south of Scotland is
also over represented in social
confirmed destinations. 92% of
these qualifiers went into a
positive destination, which was
will help to ensure young people stay in the region
8
Governance
work subjects, which account slightly below the Scottish
for 18% of enrolments in the average of 94%.
Appendices &
AcknowledgementsYou can also read
