Residential Property Tax Reform in Northern Ireland: Impact Analysis and Spatial Redistribution

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Residential Property Tax Reform in Northern Ireland:
        Impact Analysis and Spatial Redistribution
               BY WILLIAM J. MCCLUSKEY, PH.D.; PEADAR DAVIS;
                         AND LAY CHENG LIM, PH.D.

T    he treatment of housing for local
     rates (property tax) has been the
subject of a continuing debate in the
                                                        of such a change to inform policy mak-
                                                        ers and decision makers on the future
                                                        direction of domestic rating in Northern
United Kingdom (UK) for decades, as it                  Ireland and elsewhere. A geographic in-
has been in many other countries. The                   formation system (GIS) also was used to
domestic sector in Northern Ireland has                 show the spatial distribution of tax and
recently been subject to rating reform                  the effect of a shift from the previous net
and a revaluation to a capital-improved                 annual value (NAV)-based domestic rates
basis. Previously, the domestic sector                  to one based on capital values. We found
was valued on the basis of rental values                that a discrete value system performs well
prevalent in the late 1960s for the 1976                in terms of minimising the number of
General Revaluation (the last time                      losers (taxpayers with higher levies) and
domestic property was revalued). The                    providing a fairer and more equitable
valuation list was therefore out of date,               local tax and that impact analysis has an
and there were significant anomalies in                 important role to play in property taxa-
the way it distributed the rate burden. As              tion policy making.
a result, inequities had built up over the
years with the loss of a clear relationship             Background
between tax bills and current market                    Through the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s,
values.                                                 there has been an intensive and extensive
  Northern Ireland recently moved to a                  investigation into the fairest and most
capital value system, and the remainder                 equitable manner by which locally based
of the UK is considering a number of                    rating revenue can be raised (Hills and
options for reforming public finance. To                Sutherland, 1991; Layfield Committee
assess the wider implications of a change               1976; Midwinter 1989; Ridge and Smith
in the domestic rating for Northern Ire-                1991; Smith and Squire 1987). The whole
land, we conducted a research study to                  question of domestic property rate re-
determine the likely redistributive effects             form in Northern Ireland has to a large

William J. McCluskey, Ph.D.; Peader Davis; and Lay Cheng Lim, Ph.D., are on fac-
ulty at the Centre for Research in Property and Planning, School of the Built Environment at
University of Ulster in Northern Ireland.

Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3                         59
extent been overshadowed by events in           replaces the current rental value system
the rest of the United Kingdom. Neither         with one based on capital values; at the
the Community Charge nor the Coun-              same time, all properties are being re-
cil Tax has been imposed in Northern            valued for the first time since 1976. As a
Ireland. The so-called “Troubles” may           result, there will be a significant redistri-
have had a large part to play; however,         bution of the rate burden, although the
with the devolution of powers to a newly        actual impact is likely to be cushioned
formed Northern Ireland Assembly in             by a transitional relief scheme (which
1998, the potential role of rates began to      is outside the scope of our study). This
take centre stage. (The Northern Ireland        reform provides an unusually informa-
Assembly was established as part of the         tive opportunity to study the impact of
Belfast Agreement [otherwise known as           these changes on the residential prop-
the Good Friday Agreement] on April 10,         erty sector.
1998. The agreement set out the plan for           Undertaking this type of redistributive
devolved government including the cre-          analysis is largely dependent upon hav-
ation of the Assembly and Executive.)           ing access to data of high quality and in
   The Programme for Government                 sufficient quantity. Earlier studies that
2001–04 (Northern Ireland Executive             examined redistribution effects were, to
2001–2004) indicated the importance             a large extent, constrained by the avail-
of ensuring that local revenue is raised        ability and quality of the data. Research
in ways that are fair, taking into account      conducted by Evans (1976) was based on
the objectives of targeting social need and     data from a 20 percent sample survey of
promoting equality of opportunity. The          sales reported to the Inland Revenue.
then Minister of Finance and Personnel          Evans found that, overall, 55 percent
announced the Review of Rating Policy           of dwellings would be entitled to a re-
in March 2001 to evaluate the current sys-      duction and 45 percent would have an
tem and possible alternatives. The Review       increase. Ford and Brown (1978) based
of Rating Policy: A Consultation Paper was      their results on a sample of 249 sales
published in May 2002 (Northern Ireland         (for the town of Woking). They found
Executive 2002a). Despite the suspension        that properties close to the city centre
of the devolved administration in October       would be beneficiaries, whereas proper-
2002, the review is seen as a central plat-     ties in suburban areas would face rate
form for delivering a fair and equitable        increases. Wyatt (1982) found that an in-
local rating system. Underpinning the           crease in rates would shift from newer to
review is the fact that the Reinvestment        older properties, from smaller to larger
and Reform Initiative for Northern Ire-         properties, and from cheaper to more
land allows the Executive to borrow funds       expensive properties. He utilised a work-
for infrastructure investment, with the         able sample of 620 dwellings for the city
loans being serviced by additional local        of Derby. However, only asking prices,
revenue, that is, local rates (Northern         not actual selling prices, were available.
Ireland Executive 2002b). (The Reinvest-        Hattersley, Lizieri, and Chandler (1989)
ment and Reform Initiative, announced           studied 1,279 properties (for England
on May 2, 2002, is aimed at addressing          and Wales) drawn from the Department
the long-standing problems in the ma-           of the Environment/Building Societies
jor public services of health, education,       Association’s 5 percent Survey of Build-
roads, water, and sewerage.)                    ing Society Mortgages for a single month
   The primary aim of Domestic Rating           (June 1987). They found that 52 percent
Reform is to achieve a balance between          of dwellings would have a reduced rating
economic efficiency (those who benefit          liability and 48 percent would have an
from services, pay) and fairness or equity      increase. In addition, they found that
(those who pay, can pay). The reform            higher-priced dwellings would carry a

60                            Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3
higher rate burden under a capital value                The Pre-reform Domestic Rating
system and that lower-priced properties                 System
would have their rate burden reduced.                   The domestic rating system in Northern
   In our study, we analysed the effects                Ireland has remained virtually un-
of the rating changes on a sample of                    changed since its statutory inception in
46,407 sold properties. Utilising GIS,                  1852. The basis of rating is an assessment
we generated maps that showed the                       of the hypothetical Net Annual Value for
distributional impact of a shift in tax                 each rateable property; the rate liability
bills from the current NAV system to the                is simply calculated by applying a rate
alternative of a capital value system. We               in the pound to the assessed NAV. Net
studied the relationship of tax incidence               annual value is defined as follows:
to a measure of ability to pay at a ward
level (the spatial units used to elect local               …the rent for which, one year with
government councillors). The measure,                      another, the hereditament might, in its
income deprivation, was compiled by the                    actual state, be reasonably expected to let
Social Disadvantage Research Centre                        from year to year, the probable average an-
(SDRC 2001) and is one of the accepted                     nual cost of repairs, insurance and other
benchmarks for assessing deprivation                       expenses (if any) necessary to maintain
for Northern Ireland policy makers.                        the hereditament in its actual state, and
This measure allowed us to compare the                     all rates, taxes or public charges (if any),
redistributive results with levels of depri-               being paid by the tenant. (Schedule 12
vation in order to determine whether the                   Part 1 of the Rates [Northern Ireland]
reform is improving or worsening ability                   Order 1977)
to pay at the ward level.
   The next section discusses the current                 In the mid-nineteenth and early
rating system and the basic policy op-                  twentieth centuries, the predominant
tions available. The data and methods                   tenurial form was based on the rent-
used in analysing these options are then                ing of property. As figure 1 illustrates,
outlined, and the redistributive impact                 there has been a significant structural
of the reform is examined. The main                     change in the residential market with a
findings are drawn together in the final                marked decline in the rental sector in
section.                                                comparison to the growth in levels of
                                                        owner occupation.
Figure 1. Structure of the residential property market in Northern Ireland by tenure type

Source: Northern Ireland Housing Statistics

Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3                             61
The future shape of the domestic rat-         which has extremely limited international
ing system therefore must recognise the          usage, a discrete value approach has
availability of market evidence. In this         widespread application (Bird and Slack
regard, the continued use of a rental-           2004; McCluskey, Lim, and Davis 2004;
value-based approach would be difficult          McCluskey, Plimmer, and Connellan
to sustain simply on the basis of avail-         1999). Furthermore, research carried
ability of sufficient transaction evidence       out in each of the three Great Britain
(Layfield Committee 1976; McCluskey,             jurisdictions indicates that the current
Plimmer, and Connellan 1998; Wyatt               Council Tax system is highly regressive
1983). The Reform of Rating Policy               (Convention of Scottish Local Authori-
consultation document (Northern Ire-             ties 2001; Giles and Ridge 1993; Institute
land Executive 2002b) indicated that to          of Revenues, Rating and Valuation 1999;
retain a local rating system, the primary        Kenway and Palmer 1999; Longley, Higgs,
option would be a capital-value-based            and Martin 1996; Plimmer 1999; Plimmer,
approach. The arguments in support               McCluskey, and Connellan 1999; Welsh
of capital value rating are persuasive;          Assembly Government 2002). Whilst
for example, substantial information is          more progressive banding approaches
available to valuers on open market sell-        could be used, evidence suggests that a
ing prices. In addition, there would be          discrete value approach is likely to pro-
greater transparency because ratepayers          duce optimum property tax performance
would have a better understanding of the         in terms of vertical and horizontal equity
rationale behind assessed values.                and ability to pay (Davis, McCluskey, and
   The shift to a capital value solution         Lim 2004).
for Northern Ireland has, in essence,
two aspects: (1) whether to implement a          Data Sources and Database
property-value-banded system, as used in         Construction
the rest of the UK, or (2) whether to in-
                                                 The property sales data supplied by the
troduce a discrete capital value approach.
                                                 Valuation and Lands Agency (VLA)
This leads on to an interesting question
                                                 covered a five-year period from 1998 to
for local governments in the remainder
                                                 2002. For quality control, we excluded
of the UK: Should they retain a banded
                                                 from these data first-time sales from de-
system or move to a discrete system, if they
                                                 velopers, sales from the public sector to
indeed opt to retain a property tax? The
                                                 tenants under the “right to buy” scheme,
recently concluded Lyons Inquiry into
                                                 agricultural dwellings whose selling price
Local Government (2007) conducted a
                                                 included agricultural land, and any cases
wide-ranging investigation into these mat-
                                                 which evidenced data entry problems.
ters. The result was a recommendation
                                                 The data were further cleaned by remov-
that the Council Tax be retained in the
                                                 ing properties with obvious data errors
short term and revalued in the medium
                                                 and blank fields. The total number of
term, with an option of reform to discrete
                                                 usable sales for all 26 district councils
values in the long term.
                                                 was 46,407, or approximately 7 percent
   Under a discrete capital value system,
                                                 of the total dwelling stock.
each individual property is given an as-
                                                   Given that data over a five-year period
sessed capital value. A banded capital
                                                 were used, it was necessary to adjust sell-
value system, as used in the rest of the
                                                 ing prices to a common valuation date,
UK, categorises property by reference to
                                                 that is, April 1, 1999. Applying this com-
a value band. In essence, a broad estimate
                                                 mon valuation date allowed for a more
of a property’s capital value is made, and
                                                 objective cross comparison between the
then it is allocated to the appropriate
                                                 various district councils. A time-adjusted
band (McCluskey, Plimmer, and Connel-
                                                 sales price (TASP) was calculated by us-
lan 2002). In contrast to value banding,

62                             Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3
ing a regression-based technique that                   Results and Discussion
calculates the monthly growth rate im-                  Hot-spot Analysis—Redistributive
plied by the data. An implied monthly                   Effect at District Council Level
growth rate index was calculated for each               Any changes in a system of taxation are
district council. These indexes were then               likely to have an impact upon those upon
used to adjust each sale price to reflect               whom the tax is levied. A change in the
its assumed value at the common date.                   way liability is assessed is likely to have an
Whilst the market for each property type                uneven effect: the creation of “winners,”
or each area within a district council                  taxpayers whose levies are less under the
may not have performed equally over                     new system, and ”losers,” taxpayers whose
the period, this methodology gives the                  levies are more. In terms of tax proposals,
most accurate estimate of house prices                  this result requires analysis of the ability
on a common date. The approach is well                  to pay. Internationally, property value is
documented (Gloudemans 1999) and                        taken to be an acceptable proxy for the
is accepted for adjusting sales price and               ability to pay a property tax, but this is
value through time.                                     by no means universally accepted and is
   The selling price for each dwelling                  certainly not enshrined as such in the UK
has been used as a proxy for the assessed               context. Nonetheless, there is generally a
value under a capital value rating system               positive relationship between an individu-
(Hattersley, Lizieri, Chandler 1989).                   al’s ability to own and/or occupy property
There may be cases in which the sell-                   and his or her wealth. Thus there is at
ing price may not be an accurate and                    least a loose relationship between the
objective proxy for assessed value, for                 value of property and the ability to pay a
example, a special purchaser or sales to                tax levied upon that value. In these terms,
connected parties. However, in the ma-                  ability to pay is linked to the concept of a
jority of cases, it is reasonable to assume             proportional, or progressive, tax system.
that normal market forces and buyer and                 Thus, a proportional, or progressive, tax
seller behaviour occurred and thus de-                  system also achieves a positive outcome in
termined the open-market selling prices.                terms of ability to pay under that system,
The research aggregates the data to the                 at least to some extent. To determine the
ward level, which gives a fairly robust                 relative merit of rating reform in terms
picture of average capital values.                      of ability to pay, we analysed the data
   From the TASPs calculated for each                   delineated by ward in terms of the ward
property, we calculated the new tax bills               average income deprivation measure
under the capital value system. The                     (SDRC 2001) and aggregated for analysis
calculation assumed a revenue-neutral                   and display purposes.
position based on the current revenue                      Each district council was considered
raised by the sample. These tax bills                   separately in terms of the actual redis-
were then compared with the tax bills                   tributive effect. Table 1 shows the overall
generated under the old system to                       results at the district council level in
analyse the likely redistributive effects               terms of winners (those with lower li-
of the change in the basis of domestic                  abilities, a ratio of less than 1.0) and
rating. The results of the individual-level             losers (those with higher liabilities, a
analysis were aggregated to the ward                    ratio greater than 1.0). In overall terms,
level to allow meaningful analysis of the               a change to discrete capital value rating
effects. Whilst ward-level analysis can                 would result in approximately 61 percent
give only a broad indication of effects, it             of all ratepayers (within the sample) be-
nonetheless illustrates broad trends and                ing entitled to reduced rate liability. This
identifies notable “hot spots” of change,               percentage would vary by district coun-
which would present policy makers with                  cil, the largest percentage of winners
particular challenges.                                  being in Armagh (70 percent), Ards (67

Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3                            63
percent), and North Down (66 percent),            the effects within the Belfast City area,
and the largest percentage of losers              the capital of Northern Ireland. This
being in Newtownabbey (46 percent),               analysis is useful because Belfast has
Moyle (45 percent), Larne (45 percent),           both large concentrations of high-value
and Ballymoney (44 percent).                      properties and areas of high deprivation.
  Figures 2, 3, and 4 provide a Northern          Of the 51 Belfast wards, 35 would on aver-
Ireland overview of the main hot spots            age experience a fall in rate liability and
in terms of rate liability shifts. For ex-        16 would experience an increase. Those
ample, in the Armagh district council,            wards with the largest increases would be
70 percent of all property owners would           Ballynafeigh, Botanic, Malone, Stranmil-
receive reductions, whereas in Larne 55           lis, and Windsor (all amongst the most
percent would receive reductions and in           prosperous wards in Northern Ireland).
Belfast, 61 percent.                              As figure 5 shows, the following wards
                                                  would experience the largest reductions:
Hot-spot Analysis—Redistributive                  Ardoyne, Ballysillan, Crumlin, Duncairn,
Effect for Belfast Urban Area                     Glencairn, Highfield, Legoniel, and
Having looked at the redistributive ef-           Shankill (all amongst the most deprived
fects of changing to a capital value system       wards in Northern Ireland).
on a Northern Ireland-wide scale, we                 Figure 6 depicts, on a ward basis, the
drilled down to examine more closely              level of income deprivation compared

Table 1. Redistributive effect of capital value system at the district council level

                                              Ratio of Liability
                         Winners (Less than 1.0)              Losers (Greater than 1.0)
District Council        Number          Percentage           Number           Percentage
Antrium                    787              61                   496              39
Ards                     1,660              67                   838              33
Armagh                     616              70                   267              30
Ballymena                  987              57                   736              43
Ballymoney                 316              56                   250              44
Banbridge                  760              64                   436              36
Belfast                  4,578              61                 2,988              39
Carrickfergus              935              60                   624              40
Castlereagh              1,541              60                 1,028              40
Coleraine                1,378              62                   851              38
Cookstown                  323              62                   204              38
Craigavon                1,376              59                   947              41
Derry                      875              57                   662              43
Down                     1,075              62                   659              38
Dungannon                  495              62                   301              38
Fermanagh                  651              63                   381              37
Larne                      654              55                   548              45
Limavady                   490              58                   357              42
Lisburn                  2,647              63                 1,552              37
Magherafelt                407              62                   255              38
Moyle                      202              55                   169              45
Newry                      810              57                   602              43
Newtownabbey             1,591              54                 1,363              46
North Down               2,368              66                 1,226              34
Omagh                      363              61                   231              39
Strabane                   319              58                   232              42
Total                   28,204              61                18,203              39

64                              Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3
Figure 2. Overall rate liability change at the ward level in Northern Ireland due to capital
value system

Figure 3. Rate liability increases of greater than 30 percent due to capital value system
by ward in Northern Ireland

Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3                   65
Figure 4. Rate liability decreases of more than 20 percent due to capital value system by
ward in Northern Ireland

Figure 5. Rate liability decreases of more than 20 percent in Belfast urban area due to
capital value system

66                             Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3
with the percentage rate change. The                    revaluation, allowing considerable shifts
largest gainers would be households in                  in relative property values between dif-
the more deprived areas, whilst house-                  ferent geographic areas. It is essential
holds in the less deprived areas would                  to be able to identify and measure the
either gain less or indeed lose. In addi-               localized effects of policy changes un-
tion, higher-priced dwellings would carry               der such circumstances. Successful tax
a higher rate burden, whilst lower-priced               reform depends upon public acquies-
properties would have their rate burden                 cence, which can be jeopardized if the
reduced. Analysis on a Northern Ireland-                extreme effects of policy are not identi-
wide basis showed that this pattern was                 fied early and planned for appropriately.
generally consistent, with some notable                 The spatial dimension of tax incidence
exceptions where the makeup of a ward                   is fundamentally important in answering
included disparate elements of very high                such questions as: Where will the difficul-
property values alongside, yet geographi-               ties arise? Where is this policy weak? And
cally separate from, pockets of extreme                 perhaps, where is it strong?
deprivation. Note that this analysis mea-                  A number of important findings from
sured change from the previous rating                   our study illustrate the likely redistribu-
system, which already reflected these                   tive effects of a move to a capital value
factors to a greater or lesser extent.                  rating system. Firstly, introducing a sys-
                                                        tem of discrete capital values will result in
Conclusions                                             a greater number of winners—taxpayers
The analysis reported in this paper used                with reduced rate bills. Secondly, whilst
GIS to identify the spatial redistribu-                 lower-valued dwellings will tend to have
tion of property tax bills following a                  reduced liabilities, the most expensive
revaluation and change in the tax base.                 properties will experience an increase.
A long period had elapsed since the last                Thirdly, from a spatial perspective, a

Figure 6. Percentage tax change in Belfast wards due to capital value system by income
deprivation measures (IDM)

Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3                           67
general pattern of redistribution was             capital value approach appears to be both
identified in which several inner-city            methodologically simpler and fairer than
wards and a number of suburban wards              the banded approach, as well as more
will experience increased rate liabilities.       appropriate and feasible than the rental
Detailed investigation at the property            value approach. Given a similar degree of
level indicated that a considerable reas-         administrative feasibility, we suggest the
signment of property values will take             discrete approach that has been adopted
place and result in major changes in tax          is the approach best suited to the needs
bills for individual properties, generally        of the Northern Ireland jurisdiction for
following the pattern just described.             the foreseeable future. We would be
   In terms of an appropriate system              overstating our findings if we suggested
for Northern Ireland, whilst the dis-             the introduction of a discrete capital
crete capital value system that has been          value system into the rest of the United
introduced does not provide a total               Kingdom, particularly given the highly
local taxation solution, it does provide          political nature of property taxation and
a feasible alternative to the previous            the necessity of public support for re-
system and a better performance than              form. Rather, the likelihood is that such
a banded alternative in terms of ability          an introduction would produce a similar
to pay. Examination of the mapping of             profile of outcomes, that is, redistribution
the change to a discrete system indicated         of the tax burden under a proportional
that although most wards will witness             system, creating a far less regressive tax
limited change, there are localised hot           and redistributing tax burden toward
spots of large increases and decreases in         more valuable properties in particular
rate burden, particularly in the Belfast          and more affluent areas in general.
urban area. Liability increases raise the            We have shown that the impacts of the
issue of affordability; while for liability       tax reform changes are fairly propor-
decreases, the issue is local revenue-            tional, although some deprived areas will
raising potential. There may be wider             gain less than the average. Nevertheless,
implications for the funding of local             in the switch to a capital value system, al-
and regional government in Northern               though many higher-value properties will
Ireland—implications that will need               no doubt simply see themselves as losing,
to be addressed alongside the ongoing             three-fifths of the households in Northern
Review of Public Administration pro-              Ireland will be winners. Our research and
gramme. Other issues are those linked             findings have strategic importance from
to any system of taxation based upon              a number of perspectives, not the least
capital values, particularly the “asset rich,     of which is the contribution to inform-
income poor” issue. All these issues are          ing the policy debate surrounding the
likely to afflict any capital value system,       reform of the domestic rating system for
but are perhaps more pronounced in a              Northern Ireland and other jurisdictions.
discrete approach.                                More directly, our findings demonstrate
   The technological and data issues              the need for jurisdictions considering
facing this and other UK jurisdictions            reform to carry out impact analyses to in-
in introducing a discrete, capital value          form, guide, and defend policy decisions.
property tax system are surmountable,             Clearly, other areas of research require
by using a combination of proven tech-            more detailed investigation, such as the
niques and innovative approaches, and             effect of the new system on low-income
provide opportunities for cost-effective          households, on areas of high depriva-
periodic revaluation. For the remain-             tion, and, ultimately, on the ability to
ing issues, the answer would appear to            pay. These areas are part of our ongoing
be a well-balanced basket of reliefs and          research, and we hope they will further
deferments. Nevertheless, the discrete            inform the decision-making process.

68                              Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3
Acknowledgments                                         Hills, J., and H. Sutherland. 1991. The
The authors thank the Valuation and                     proposed Council Tax. Fiscal Studies 12
Lands Agency for assistance in supply-                  (4): 1–21.
ing the data for the empirical work and                 Institute of Revenues, Rating and Valua-
for valuable comments on early drafts                   tion (IRRV). 1999. Council Tax collection
of this paper.                                          arrangements in Scotland and England &
                                                        Wales. Edinburgh: Institute of Revenues,
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