RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?

Page created by Tyler Henderson
 
CONTINUE READING
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX

RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX:
WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR
RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?

                                    U
                                            nderstanding how to flex and adapt your
                                            branch portfolio is a critical success factor for
                                            modern retailers. Relying on customer base,
                                    brand strength, and market confidence alone will not
                                    guarantee success. Retailers need to be empowered with
                                    data and insight that not only takes these elements into
                                    consideration but also reviews the varying factors that
                                    impact portfolio success. This will not only ensure risks
                                    are successfully mitigated and managed, but will also
                                    lead to higher returns from retail investment.

                                    The Arcadis Retail Operations Index offers insight into
                                    which locations are most and least difficult to execute,
                                    scale and flex large retail programs based on
                                    an in-depth analysis of the global retail market over
                                    50 countries.

                                    Looking at market demands, economic climate, quality
                                    of infrastructure, and ease of establishment and
                                    operation, we have identified both the key challenges
                                    and the opportunities faced by the world’s largest
                                    retailers when opting to expand or reshape their store
                                    portfolios.
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                         ← START   I   CONTENTS →        2

HEADLINES AT A GLANCE
                                                        T   he majority of
                                                            the Western
                                                        European countries
                                                        are concentrated in
                                                        the top half of the
                                                        index, indicating that
                                                        the well-established
                                                        retail markets
                                                        continue to present
                                                        sound opportunities
                                                        for optimizing store
                                                        performance.

                                                        T    he UAE
                                                             ranks highly
                                                        overall with both
                                                                                 D    espite being the largest
                                                                                      consumer market in the world,
                                                                                 China’s significant barriers to entry,
                                                        a strong quality of      including strict regulations, economic

 H    ong Kong tops the ranking as the easiest
      market for retailers to enter.
 In spite of this, the latest market insight suggests
                                                        infrastructure and
                                                        a robust economic
                                                        environment.
                                                                                 slowdown and a fragmented market
                                                                                 structure, have led to a lower rating
                                                                                 on our attractiveness scale.
 that increasing operating overheads such as high
 property costs and softening sales will likely have
 an impact on local performance in 2015.
                                                                                                                          B    razil has a growing
                                                                                                                               market demand due

 M
                                                                                                                           to a rapidly growing middle
       arket demand
                                                                                                                           class and increased foreign
       in the US                                                                                                           interest. However, its low
 strengthens                                                                                                               position in the index is
 with interesting                                                                                                          reflective of the challenges
 polarisation in certain                                                                                                   of an over-regulated labor
 retail categories and                                                                                                     market, low degree of trade
 specific locations.                                                                                                       transparency, high inflation
                                                                                                                           and currency depreciation.
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                        ← START   I   CONTENTS →   3

CONTENTS

4      THE REVOLUTION OF
       THE RETAIL STORE

6                                    12                         21            24
                                                                                            THE
       OUR                                                                                  MIDDLE
       RESEARCH                                ASIA              THE USA                    EAST

                                                      17
                                                       EUROPE   22
                                                                 LATIN
                                                                 AMERICA

25
            WHAT CAN RETAILERS DO TO ENSURE
            OPTIMUM RESULTS FROM THEIR STORE

                                                                28
            PORTFOLIOS ACROSS THE GLOBE?

                                                                     CONTACT US
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                          ← START   I   CONTENTS →   4

THE REVOLUTION OF THE RETAIL STORE
Evolution is part of the fabric of life within the retail world. However, the retail store environment has seen little change over
the years – that is, until the birth of the digital world and, more importantly, the explosion of mobile technology and social
media that has pushed evolution into revolution.
The net result is that retailers have had to cope with and respond to both the technology enabling change and to the
consumers who are dictating it. The challenge is then compounded by cultural and developmental differences across the
world making it impossible to adopt a single solution.
The key to keeping pace with this revolution is adaptability, flexibility and an absolute focus on really knowing your consumer.

THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL
Online retail revenues are expected to double over the next four      need for lower cost, flexible, reusable store formats that can be
years, led by China and the US. Asia has overtaken the USA in         relocated to suit a rapidly changing environment. This is already
online sales for the first time and Europe and emerging markets       being played out through the explosion of the ‘Pop-Up’ store
are growing exponentially. Retail property portfolios are expected    environment.
to shrink by 30% over the next 10 years as retailers are under
                                                                      Retailers with a heavy focus on services, such as retail banks and
more pressure to maintain performance in their bricks-and-mortar
                                                                      mobile phone operators, will be equally challenged as their own
assets. So how will this affect portfolios in the future?
                                                                      services continue to trend towards increasing online transactions.
This depends heavily on the type of retailer you are and the multi-   The number of bricks-and-mortar touch points for these types of
channel strategy adopted. But we can certainly expect a heavier       retailers are likely to reduce and be focused on premium locations
emphasis on flagships for brand building and showcasing products,     and premium customer experiences. They will offer higher levels
supported by a variety of flexible store formats driving core sales   of service to their VIP customers to generate the returns required
through localized access for the consumer. There will be a greater    from such premium locations.
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                   ← START   I   CONTENTS →   5

OMNI-CHANNEL IS CRITICAL
There is a race on to find the optimal omni-channel solution but it would fair to say that there is no single model for success. Determining
exactly how to provide customers with the most efficient seamless balance between in-store, online and mobile shopping experiences
remains one of the biggest challenges for most retailers.

Perhaps one of the best pioneering examples of successful omni-channel retailing could be found with Apple where the consumer experience
is absolutely consistent. Even their physical store networks have a blend of high impact city flagships surrounded by an ecosystem of smaller
distributor stores and kiosks providing tremendous flexibility to shape their retail real estate portfolio quickly and efficiently.

CONVENIENCE IS KING
In this rapidly changing environment, the consumer is demanding convenience throughout the experience. Now, more than ever before,
convenience is truly a critical success factor for retailers.

Retail stores and branches will need to be multi-functional and accessible as the brand experience touch-point for consumers in the real
world. The seeds of the revolution were planted many years ago, perhaps as long as three decades ago when catalogue and mail order
companies pioneered what has become ‘Click-and-Collect’. In a pre-digital age, this provided catalogue customers with the ability to place
orders and then collect in store at their convenience.

Most major retailers are adapting their existing store formats to incorporate a form of ‘Click-and-Collect’ allowing their online shoppers to not
only collect goods at a convenient time and location, but also to handle returns, resolve customer service issues and make cash payments.

Although “Click-and-Collect” is less common in Asia where consumers are not as likely to drive to stores, it is becoming an increasingly
popular retail concept in the Americas and Europe where the car still dominates. Many have increased sales by embracing an adapted “Click-
and-Collect” concept. The UK department store John Lewis, for example, has leveraged its sister company, supermarket Waitrose, adding
almost 320 collection points across the region. Reducing the necessity for customers to make longer journeys into major towns has made
the experience more convenient and attractive to consumers. Changes such as this can result in an increase of up to 20% in online sales.

Online retailers are also seeing a growing need to adapt. When Amazon opened its first store early in 2014 in the US, its entry into the ‘real
world’ bricks-and-mortar environment was an irony not lost on many. Amazon had pioneered the demise of many high street retailers,
particularly music, video and bookstores. But the core intention was to provide a physical touch-point with the consumer, a place to
experience the brand physically, and to pick up and drop off goods; proof to many that even the digital world requires real world stores in
order to satisfy the consumer.

THE FLEXIBLE PORTFOLIO
Most retailers have developed a toolkit of formats ranging from flagships and brand centers to kiosks and corners. Modifying an existing
portfolio of formats requires a ground-up approach incorporating the needs of the chosen multi-channel strategy, demographic and
customer research, and detailed local knowledge in each market.

The virtual modelling of this data using different formats in various densities and locations will generate scenarios upon which these
formats can be fine-tuned, together with real performance metrics from stores.

The variety of formats needed will differ significantly between retailers depending on many factors including range and geography. But
key to the formats is the ability to rapidly change and flex in response to performance and opportunity.

The rapid depreciation of the capital cost of store developments has also become a priority, pressured further by a need to be
opportunistic and an ability to respond to higher property costs. These factors all point to an increasing demand for a highly cost
efficient and rapidly deployable arsenal of store formats at the disposable of retail executives.
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                   ← START      I   CONTENTS →           6

OUR RESEARCH
When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio                    CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ►                                   3.   Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market
for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of                                                                                              size, passenger cars and competitive environment.
                                                                                1.   Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads
factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the                                                                                          CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
                                                                                     and rail links.
footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics                                                                                      4.   Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a                                                                                            of technologies.
number of different store formats which can be applied to different             2.   Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
locations types and demographics can then provide a framework                        suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and
upon which to move forward.                                                          business freedom.                                                  5.   Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►                                           freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom
The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult
                                                                                                                                                             from corruption.
it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
market conditions by considering the following five key factors:

 OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                   ← START      I   CONTENTS →           7

OUR RESEARCH
When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio                    CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ►                                   3.   Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market
for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of                                                                                              size, passenger cars and competitive environment.
                                                                                1.   Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads
factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the                                                                                          CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
                                                                                     and rail links.
footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►                                      4.   Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability
are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a
                                                                                                                                                             of technologies.
number of different store formats which can be applied to different             2.   Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
locations types and demographics can then provide a framework                        suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and
upon which to move forward.                                                          business freedom.                                                  5.   Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►                                           freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom
The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult
                                                                                                                                                             from corruption.
it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
market conditions by considering the following five key factors:

 INFRASTRUCTURE RANKINGS 																                                                                                                                                          VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                   ← START      I   CONTENTS →           8

OUR RESEARCH
When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio                    CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ►                                   3.   Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market
for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of                                                                                              size, passenger cars and competitive environment.
                                                                                1.   Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads
factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the                                                                                          CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
                                                                                     and rail links.
footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►                                      4.   Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability
are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a
                                                                                                                                                             of technologies.
number of different store formats which can be applied to different             2.   Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
locations types and demographics can then provide a framework                        suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and
upon which to move forward.                                                          business freedom.                                                  5.   Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►                                           freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom
The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult
                                                                                                                                                             from corruption.
it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
market conditions by considering the following five key factors:

 EASE OF GETTING UP-AND-RUNNING RANKINGS 												                                                                                                                              VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                   ← START      I   CONTENTS →           9

OUR RESEARCH
When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio                    CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ►                                   3.   Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market
for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of                                                                                              size, passenger cars and competitive environment.
                                                                                1.   Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads
factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the                                                                                          CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
                                                                                     and rail links.
footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics                                                                                      4.   Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a                                                                                            of technologies.
number of different store formats which can be applied to different             2.   Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
locations types and demographics can then provide a framework                        suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and
upon which to move forward.                                                          business freedom.                                                  5.   Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►                                           freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom
The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult
                                                                                                                                                             from corruption.
it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
market conditions by considering the following five key factors:

 MARKET DEMAND RANKINGS 																                                                                                                                                           VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                   ← START      I   CONTENTS →          10

OUR RESEARCH
When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio                    CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ►                                   3.   Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market
for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of                                                                                              size, passenger cars and competitive environment.
                                                                                1.   Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads
factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the                                                                                          CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
                                                                                     and rail links.
footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics                                                                                      4.   Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a                                                                                            of technologies.
number of different store formats which can be applied to different             2.   Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
locations types and demographics can then provide a framework                        suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and
upon which to move forward.                                                          business freedom.                                                  5.   Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►                                           freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom
The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult
                                                                                                                                                             from corruption.
it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
market conditions by considering the following five key factors:

 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT RANKINGS 															                                                                                                                                     VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                   ← START      I   CONTENTS →          11

OUR RESEARCH
When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio                    CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ►                                   3.   Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market
for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of                                                                                              size, passenger cars and competitive environment.
                                                                                1.   Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads
factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the                                                                                          CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
                                                                                     and rail links.
footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics                                                                                      4.   Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a                                                                                            of technologies.
number of different store formats which can be applied to different             2.   Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
locations types and demographics can then provide a framework                        suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and
upon which to move forward.                                                          business freedom.                                                  5.   Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade
                                                                                     CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►                                           freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom
The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult
                                                                                                                                                             from corruption.
it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing
                                                                                                                                                             CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ►
market conditions by considering the following five key factors:

 EASE OF OPERATING RANKINGS 																                                                                                                                                       VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                            ← START        I   CONTENTS →           12

ASIA                                                                               SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ►

Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the
differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the
top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the
bottom.

                                                                           HONG KONG
                                                   South Korea             Hong Kong in the top spot means that it offers the best conditions
                     27 China                                              in the world for retailers to operate within. Hong Kong provides
                                                   16        4 Japan       some of the most advanced infrastructure in the world through
                                                                           world-class air and seaports, state of the art telecommunications
                             Hong Kong                                     and efficient local and regional transportation. It also benefits from
                                       1       12 Taiwan                   stable and efficient business operating conditions and a strong
                     Thailand                                              economic climate supported by a high influx of Chinese mainland
       43 India
                            21     41 Vietnam                              visitors taking advantage of tourism and access to international
                                                36 Philippines             and luxury brands at tax free prices. As a result, most international
         33                13 Malaysia                                     brands have established multiple high-end flagship stores here.
     Sri Lanka                   2 Singapore                               Despite the ranking, retailers should exercise caution in 2015.
                                                42 Indonesia               Economists predict slow growth in retail sales due to a reduction
                                                                           in cross-border tourist numbers and a general slowdown in
                                                                           China. This is already evident as we saw a steady decline in sales
                                                                           volume in 2014 compared to the previous year. In addition, rents
                                                                           have continued to rise to unsustainable levels making portfolio
                                                                           flexibility more important than ever.
                                                11 Australia

                                                                                                                                                    Hong Kong key stats:

                                                                                                                                                         GDP: $291bn (IMF Oct 2014)

                                                                                                                                                         Real GDP growth: 2.5% (IMF Oct 2014)

                                                                                                                                                         Population: 7.24m (IMF Oct 2014)

                                                                                                                                                         Unemployment: 3.3% (2013)

                                                                                                                                                         Consumer Price Index: 4.4% (2014) worldbank.org

                                                                                                                                                         Retail Growth: 7.5% growth y/y (Nov 2014) tradingeconomics.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                 ← START   I   CONTENTS →   13

ASIA                                                                               SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ►

Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the
differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the
top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the
bottom.

                                                                           SINGAPORE
                                                   South Korea             Singapore occupies second place in the rankings as a country
                     27 China                                              with outstanding ease of operations, business and economic
                                                   16        4 Japan       environment. Grocery stores, primarily NTUC FairPrice,
                                                                           and Dairy Farm, dominate the retail market together with
                             Hong Kong                                     major department store operators such as Takashimaya and
                                       1       12 Taiwan                   Robinsons. The highly successful urban malls have attracted
                     Thailand                                              international brands and created a strong platform for retailers
       43 India
                            21     41 Vietnam                              to operate successfully in Singapore.
                                                36 Philippines             However, Singapore is constrained by being a small island nation
         33                13 Malaysia
                                                                           and the significant volume of international brands has largely
     Sri Lanka                   2 Singapore                               saturated the market. This success has driven up rents and made
                                                42 Indonesia               consumers more value focused.

                                                                           To feed growth ambitions, international brands are being forced
                                                                           to explore the out of town suburban retail landscape with mixed
                                                                           results. It has also forced an explosion in e-commerce activity.

                                                                           A number of foreign retailers with a rigid approach to retail and
                                                11 Australia               unwillingness to adapt to local conditions are struggling to move
                                                                           to profitability and several have exited.

                                                                           Whilst recent retail sales have been under pressure and
                                                                           reducing, the overall local economic conditions are still strong.

                                                                                                                Singapore key stats:

                                                                                                                        GDP: $308m (2014)

                                                                                                                        Real GDP growth: 2.92% (2014)

                                                                                                                        Population: 5.47m (2014)

                                                                                                                        Unemployment: 2.8% (2013)

                                                                                                                        Consumer Price Index: 1% (2014) worldbank.org

                                                                                                                        Retail Growth: 6.5% y/y (Nov 2014) tradingeconomics.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                  ← START        I   CONTENTS →            14

ASIA                                                                                SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ►

Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the
differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the
top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the
bottom.

                                                                           CHINA
                                                   South Korea             At no 27, China’s ranking is much lower than its regional
                     27 China                                              counterparts. This is primarily due to the difficulties retailers face
                                                   16        4 Japan       in getting up and running in a challenging business environment.
                                                                           Tightening of regulations and the imposition of heavy fines
                             Hong Kong                                     over the past few years has forced some of the luxury retailers,           China key stats:
                                       1       12 Taiwan                   and grocery stores such as Walmart, to deliver optimisation or
                     Thailand                                              consolidation strategies in China. Other retailers are pulling out of              GDP: $10,360bn (2014)
       43 India
                            21     41 Vietnam                              the market altogether.
                                                                                                                                                              Real GDP growth: 7.35% (2014)
                                                36 Philippines             Attracted by the size and scale of the consumer base, many
         33                13 Malaysia
                                                                           retailers in the past had rapidly expanded in China but in many                    Population: 1.364bn (2014)
     Sri Lanka                   2 Singapore                               cases had not carried out sufficient research on reliable customer
                                                42 Indonesia               demand to be successful. Potential for growth and domestic                         Unemployment: 4.6% (2013)

                                                                           competition had been overestimated. For many, incorrect
                                                                                                                                                              Consumer Price Index: 2% (2014) worldbank.org
                                                                           predictions have led to portfolio underperformance and, as a
                                                                           result, investors in stores in China are increasingly cautious.                    Retail Growth: 11.9% y/y (2014) tradingeconomics.com
                                                                           That said, for many retailers China is viewed as ‘long-play’ where
                                                11 Australia               it is important to be there and build brand awareness and loyalty.
                                                                           Although it is fiercely competitive, it also holds massive potential for   A balanced portfolio with flexible formats that can be easily scaled
                                                                           those who are well prepared and knowledgeable about the market.            is the most successful retailer platform.
                                                                           Having the right local partner to help navigate the unique pitfalls
                                                                           and prizes of local markets can ensure a more successful entry.            In spite of these restrictions, there is no denying that China is set to
                                                                                                                                                      be one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world -
                                                                           A principal issue facing retailers in China is its fragmented market       but not at the rate of growth that we have previously experienced.
                                                                           structure: the combination of small and medium-sized retailers             Overall, China anticipates a moderate retail sales growth of 8%
                                                                           and a large disparity of regional consumer purchasing power                over the next five years and a positive growth in middle-income
                                                                           means consumer demand can differ greatly from one end of the               earnings. Such growth forecasts point to China surpassing the US
                                                                           country to the other.                                                      in retail sale volumes over the next few years and, therefore, is still
                                                                           Due to the much higher income levels, the major urban areas of             very much a country in the spotlight for retailers.
                                                                           Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou make up the majority of China’s            Casual and fast fashion retailers such as H&M and GAP, sports
                                                                           retail sales. Although international chain stores are growing,             apparel retailers and many international automotive retailers are
                                                                           expanding from the major centers has proved very challenging               all underway with large-scale expansions and a focus on the lower
                                                                           due to provincial barriers to market and the difficulty in getting         tier cities. To operate successfully, retailers will need to plan their
                                                                           business cases to ‘stack up’. Confidence is easily bruised.                portfolios carefully, understand the market conditions for the sector
                                                                           Although as much as 80% of demand comes from the Tier 1 cities,            in which they operate and undertake thorough due diligence studies
                                                                           high rental rates faced in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing are         around customer sales demand. Above all, China is a long-term
                                                                           driving some retailers away from the market altogether.                    investment and expectations should be tempered accordingly.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                             ← START        I   CONTENTS →      15

ASIA                                                                               SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ►

Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the
differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the
top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the
bottom.

                                                                           INDIA
                                                   South Korea             A poor economic environment score leaves India at a very low
                     27 China                                              43 in the rankings. This may appear a surprising result when
                                                   16        4 Japan       comparing the position of other Asian countries, especially with
                                                                           India’s burgeoning middle class and a consumer culture. However,
                             Hong Kong                                     challenges regarding the operating environment together with
                                       1       12 Taiwan                   high inflation have created a difficult environment for retailers to
                     Thailand                                              expand.
       43 India
                            21     41 Vietnam
                                                                           In the past, India has been restricted by a lack of quality mall
                                                36 Philippines             space outside of the major cities as well as on-going regulatory
         33                13 Malaysia
                                                                           challenges for foreign retailers. In spite of this, retailing records
     Sri Lanka                   2 Singapore                               healthy growth due to rising income levels in the middle classes
                                                42 Indonesia               and an improvement in the presence of consumer marketing,
                                                                           which has boosted the awareness of brands and products and
                                                                           supported growth during over the past year.

                                                                           The Indian government through Prime Minister Modi
                                                                           is recognizing the regulatory issues FDI companies are
                                                11 Australia               experiencing and is starting to relax these, introducing free trade
                                                                           and beneficial tax initiatives to promote retail growth.

                                                                           The Indian retail market reached US$490 billion in 2013, 69% of
                                                                           which came from food. In recognition of this, India is identified as
                                                                           a hot spot for expansion, specifically in grocery, with Metro and
                                                                           Spar experiencing significant growth and Walmart and Tesco
                                                                           planning ambitious rollout programmes. Alongside this, Internet
                                                                           retailing of non-grocery products is seeing strong growth and is        India key stats:
                                                                           now posing huge competition to store-based retailing. Retailers
                                                                           remain undeterred with Ikea, Uniqlo, Burger King and other food               GDP: $2,067bn (2014)
                                                                           and beverage retailers planning expansion into India during
                                                                           2015. Therefore, given the positive outlook of this country, we               Real GDP growth: 7.42% (2014)

                                                                           expect India’s position in the ranking to climb during 2015.
                                                                                                                                                         Population: 1.267bn (2014)

                                                                                                                                                         Unemployment: 3.6% (2013)

                                                                                                                                                         Consumer Price Index: 6.4% (2014)       worldbank.org

                                                                                                                                                         Retail Growth: 13% forecast to 2018 ibef.org.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                            ← START       I   CONTENTS →      16

ASIA                                                                               SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ►

Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the
differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the
top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the
bottom.

                                                                           INDONESIA
                                                   South Korea             Slower economic growth and diminishing purchasing power,
                     27 China                      16                      especially for the lower income class, has dampened any potential
                                                             4 Japan
                                                                           retail growth in Indonesia. Nevertheless, throughout 2014, major
                                                                           retailers continued to expand into developing cities to capture the
                             Hong Kong                                     growing middle class. One example is Ikea who established their
                                       1       12 Taiwan                   first store in Indonesia last year and are moving ahead with further
                     Thailand                                              stores.
       43 India
                            21     41 Vietnam
                                                                           As the economic recovery gains some pace, retailers should
                                                36 Philippines             expect to see sales growth of at least 10% this year and this
         33                13 Malaysia
                                                                           is being recognized by new international retailers who have
     Sri Lanka                   2 Singapore                               entered the market, including H&M and Uniqlo,who recently
                                                42 Indonesia               opened their first stores in Jakarta.

                                                                           For many, barriers to entry make the only route of entry into
                                                                           Indonesia through a joint venture or franchise model, which can
                                                                           be a lower risk but often less successful model. It is our opinion
                                                                           that caution should be taken when considering entering the
                                                11 Australia               market, however, due to challenges with importing materials and
                                                                           products where regulations and transparency issues continue to
                                                                           impact time and cost.

                                                                           Looking ahead, we expect slower yet positive sales growth across
                                                                           Indonesia, and although there are uncertainties around the
                                                                           economic environment we should expect it to remain positive due
                                                                           to increasing consumption and the expanding presence of leading
                                                                           brands.                                                                Indonesia key stats:

                                                                                                                                                        GDP: $889bn (2014)

                                                                                                                                                        Real GDP growth: 5.02% (2014)

                                                                                                                                                        Population: 253m (2014)

                                                                                                                                                        Unemployment: 6.3% (2013)

                                                                                                                                                        Consumer Price Index: 6.4% worldbank.org

                                                                                                                                                        Retail Growth: 18.6% y/y (July 2014) euromonitor.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                                 ← START       I   CONTENTS →           17

EUROPE                                                                                 SPOTLIGHT ON: UNITED KINGDOM ► GERMANY ► POLAND ► THE NETHERLANDS ►

The well-established retail markets of Europe present sound
opportunities for optimizing store performance. Many countries
benefit from strong supply chains and our results demonstrate that
overall the ease of doing business and becoming operational is far
easier across Europe than in other regions.

That said, the recent economic crisis within the Eurozone has left its
mark on the retail sector; on-going uncertainty over interest rates,
                                                                               UNITED KINGDOM
employment levels and overall economic stability are still weighing            The United Kingdom ranks fifth overall, reflecting a retail market
heavily on the continent with, perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece and              in growth mode once again, driven primarily by the gradual
Italy performing comparatively poorly. Only time will tell how long            economic recovery.
it takes the individual European economies, and consequentially the
                                                                               There is major structural change underway with most large
retail sector, to achieve something by10    Sweden
                                       way of recovery.
                                                                               scale retailers reducing or halting their network expansion
                                                                               programmes for larger formats. Demand for innovative retail
                                                                               experiences will continue to grow in popularity, perhaps driven
                                                                               harder by the recent issues faced by major UK supermarkets
  United Kindom       The Netherlands                                          who are challenged by over-sized and inefficient store footprints.
                                                                               Investment capital is being spent on improving and remodelling
              5           9                                                                                                                           Despite its high ranking, the UK is let down by its infrastructure,
                                            22 Poland                          existing stores to protect market share (against tougher
                                  7                                                                                                                   scoring 18 in that category. This is primarily based on negative
                                                                               competition from the hard discounters Aldi and Lidl), and growing
                              Germany                                                                                                                 public perception of issues such as road congestion that is
                                                                               the convenience store-base. But some commentators argue that
                                                                                                                                                      affecting traditional out of town malls, and limited public transport
          France   14                          26 Hungary                      there is overcapacity amongst the major grocers and it remains
                                                                                                                                                      investment. This is then impacting more recent town center
                                                                               to be seen whether further consolidation activity occurs. This will
                                                                                                                                                      schemes, resulting in the construction of fewer new shopping
                                                                               test the flexibility and adaptability of their formats.
                                    23 Italy                                                                                                          centers.
                                                                               Even though e-commerce is rising in popularity in the UK, 90%
  20      18 Spain                                                                                                                                    The rise of “super regions” shopping centers such as Bluewater,
                                                      37 Greece                of sales revenue is still generated in the physical store with food
                                                                                                                                                      Kent, the Trafford Center, Manchester, and the two London
   Portugal                                                                    retailers continuing to dominate the market in 2015. Tesco
                                                                                                                                                      Westfield centers is attracting trade away from regional or
                                                                               maintains that their ‘in store picking’ approach for online shopping
                                                                                                                                                      neighbourhood shopping centers. As a result, local retailers
                                                                               remains the only way to operate profitability.
                                                                                                                                                      and owners need to reassess their retail proposition and target
                                                                                                                                                      customer demographics to re-align these assets to the available
                                                                                                                                                      market.
 UK key stats:

         GDP: $2,941bn (2014)

         GDP growth: 2.55% (2014)

         Population: 65m (2014)

         Unemployment: 6% (Aug 2014) (lowest since 2008 and
         largest annual fall)

         Consumer Price Index: 1.5% (2014) imf.org    databank.worldbank.org

         Retail Growth: 2.7% y/y (2014) reuters.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                      ← START       I   CONTENTS →           18

EUROPE                                                                           SPOTLIGHT ON: UNITED KINGDOM ► GERMANY ► POLAND ► THE NETHERLANDS ►

The well-established retail markets of Europe present sound
opportunities for optimizing store performance. Many countries
benefit from strong supply chains and our results demonstrate that
overall the ease of doing business and becoming operational is far
easier across Europe than in other regions.
                                                                         GERMANY
That said, the recent economic crisis within the Eurozone has left its
                                                                         Germany ranks seventh overall. Annual sales in goods and
mark on the retail sector; on-going uncertainty over interest rates,
                                                                         services topped €2 trillion in 2014 making it the world’s
employment levels and overall economic stability are still weighing
                                                                         fourth largest economy. An area holding back Germany,
heavily on the continent with, perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece and
                                                                         however, is its business environment and, in particular, its labor
Italy performing comparatively poorly. Only time will tell how long
                                                                         restrictions with strict regulatory control and high unionisation.
it takes the individual European economies, and consequentially the
                                                                         Furthermore, Germany also controls credit card/store card
retail sector, to achieve something by10    Sweden
                                       way of recovery.
                                                                         uptake at source so access to easy credit is restricted.

                                                                         Like the UK, Germany is experiencing a polarisation effect in
                                                                         the retail sector. Mid-range retailers are being driven out of
  United Kindom                                                          the market due to the growth of the personalised experience
                      The Netherlands
                                                                         high-end retailers are creating in store. Retailers are optimising
              5          9                                               omni-channel strategies as a result of a 0.5% decline in in-store
                                          22 Poland
                                 7                                       sales since 2007. With general living costs predicted to rise,
                             Germany                                     consumer spending may show signs of slowing in several sectors,
                                                                         although as the economy is in a strong position, the government
          France   14                        26 Hungary
                                                                         may resolve this through easing of taxes over the next few
                                                                         years. Despite a robust economy, Germany, like all EU countries,
                                  23 Italy                               is at risk from a decrease in market demand due to EU-Russia
                                                                         sanctions and the Eurozone fragility, which leave it vulnerable.
  20      18 Spain
                                                 37 Greece               Nonetheless, over the past year the grocery retailers such as
   Portugal
                                                                         Lidl, Edeka and Aldi have reported strong sales in Germany, as
                                                                         have pharmaceutical retailers. GDP is forecast to rise 1.6% in
                                                                         2015, indicating a boost in consumer confidence and a potential
                                                                         increase in retail sales.

                                                                         Looking forward, high-end retail is expected to be a driver of       Germany key stats:
                                                                         growth in Germany over the next 5 years.
                                                                                                                                                   GDP: $3,852bn (2014)

                                                                                                                                                   GDP growth: 1.6% (2014)

                                                                                                                                                   Population: 80.6m (2014)

                                                                                                                                                   Unemployment: 5.3% (2013)

                                                                                                                                                   Consumer Price Index: 1.5% (2014) worldbank.org

                                                                                                                                                   Retail Growth: 2.6% on previous month (Aug 2014) reuters.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                             ← START   I   CONTENTS →   19

EUROPE                                                                           SPOTLIGHT ON: UNITED KINGDOM ► GERMANY ► POLAND ► THE NETHERLANDS ►

The well-established retail markets of Europe present sound
opportunities for optimizing store performance. Many countries
benefit from strong supply chains and our results demonstrate that
overall the ease of doing business and becoming operational is far
easier across Europe than in other regions.
                                                                         POLAND
That said, the recent economic crisis within the Eurozone has left its
                                                                         Whilst Poland sits in the top half of the index rankings, the
mark on the retail sector; on-going uncertainty over interest rates,
                                                                         country’s downfall is its infrastructure, ranking below even the
employment levels and overall economic stability are still weighing
                                                                         developing economies of Thailand and Morocco. Technological
heavily on the continent with, perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece and
                                                                         improvements in Poland’s transport systems and more efficient
Italy performing comparatively poorly. Only time will tell how long
                                                                         power infrastructure are desperately required, but funding new
it takes the individual European economies, and consequentially the
                                                                         projects is constrained due to high public debt. Alongside this,
retail sector, to achieve something by10   Sweden
                                       way of recovery.
                                                                         Poland’s government remains prone to bouts of instability,
                                                                         making this country a little risky for major retail investment.

                                                                         Irrespective of that, Poland demonstrates strong market
  United Kindom                                                          demand and the encouraging result in our ‘business
                      The Netherlands
                                                                         environment’ category shows the potential in this market.
              5           9                 22 Poland                    Poland is fast becoming an inspirational target for retailers,
                                  7
                                                                         in particular retail banks, who are planning small expansion
                              Germany
                                                                         strategies underpinned by a strengthening labor market.
          France   14                          26 Hungary                Growth has been apparent amongst the discount retailer chains,
                                                                         particularly in the grocery and apparel sectors due to stronger
                                                                         consumer confidence. Such discount retail chain expansions
                                   23 Italy
                                                                         are, however, pushing out many of the independents causing
  20      18 Spain                                                       a corresponding reduction in their store portfolios. There have
                                                   37 Greece             been fewer new overseas entrants into the market over the past
   Portugal
                                                                         few months, primarily due to instability in neighbouring Ukraine.

                                                                         E-commerce is also becoming increasingly popular in the Polish
                                                                         market with a steady growth in online revenues. But it is the
                                                                         closing price gap between bricks and mortar and digital sales,
 Poland key stats:                                                       alongside a predicted uplift in market conditions which could
                                                                         mean a rapid growth in store outlets for the major market
         GDP: $548bn (2014)                                              players.

                                                                         Looking ahead, retailing in Poland is expected to continue
         GDP growth: 3.37% (2014)
                                                                         developing in constant value terms. It is our opinion that retail
                                                                         chains looking for expansion opportunities will need to look more
         Population: 38m (2014)
                                                                         towards the small and medium sized cities as well as retail parks,
                                                                         currently dominated by larger homeware stores such as Ikea.
         Unemployment: 10.4% (2013)

         Consumer Price Index: 0.1% (2014) worldbank.org

         Retail Growth: 1.7% y/y (Aug 2014) tradingeconomics.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                 ← START   I   CONTENTS →   20

EUROPE                                                                            SPOTLIGHT ON: UNITED KINGDOM ► GERMANY ► POLAND ► THE NETHERLANDS ►

The well-established retail markets of Europe present sound
opportunities for optimizing store performance. Many countries
benefit from strong supply chains and our results demonstrate that
overall the ease of doing business and becoming operational is far
easier across Europe than in other regions.

That said, the recent economic crisis within the Eurozone has left its
mark on the retail sector; on-going uncertainty over interest rates,
employment levels and overall economic stability are still weighing
                                                                         THE NETHERLANDS
heavily on the continent with, perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece and        The Netherlands high ranking in our index is primarily due to
Italy performing comparatively poorly. Only time will tell how long      slower market demand and economic environment following the
it takes the individual European economies, and consequentially the      prevailing influence of Europe’s recession. After a few years of
retail sector, to achieve something by 10   Sweden
                                       way of recovery.                  economic turmoil and cuts in government spending, many Dutch
                                                                         households have faced financial difficulties that have impacted
                                                                         consumer spending. Although real GDP has started to show
                                                                         some signs of recovery, the economic environment for retailers
                                                                         has remained relatively low as consumer confidence and there-
  United Kindom       The Netherlands                                    fore spending remains modest.
              5          9                22 Poland                      Internet retailing continues to have an impact as major chains
                                 7
                                                                         dominate at the expense of independents, and in recent years
                             Germany
                                                                         this grip has strengthened.
          France   14                        26 Hungary                  Real GDP is projected to see some growth in 2015, and inflation
                                                                         and unemployment will likely fall. In light of this, retail conditions
                                  23 Italy                               are predicted to improve in the Netherlands. Whilst growth is
                                                                         predicted to be modest and slow, growth will return as confidence
  20      18 Spain
                                                 37 Greece               returns.
   Portugal

                                                                         The Netherlands key stats:

                                                                                 GDP: $870m (2014)

                                                                                 GDP growth: 0.87% (2014)

                                                                                 Population: 17m (2014)

                                                                                 Unemployment: 6.7% (2013)

                                                                                 Consumer Price Index: 1% (2014) worldbank.org

                                                                                 Retail Growth: 0.7% y/y (July 2014) tradingeconomics.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                           ← START        I   CONTENTS →      21

THE USA                                                                            SPOTLIGHT ON: USA ►

The USA, the global leader of the retail industry by revenue and third    Many of the larger chains (JC Penny, Macys, Walmart, and Sears)         USA key stats:
in our rankings, boasts strong market demand and a good business          and teen-focused stores (Aeropostale, Abercrombie, Wet Seal
environment for retailers to operate successfully. That said, it does     and American Eagle) announced significant closures across their              GDP: $17,419bn (2014)
rank lower in the quality of its infrastructure, which is a barrier to    portfolios in Q1 as post-holiday underperformers are outed.
operations. Although recently the price of petroleum has fallen,                                                                                       GDP growth: 2.39% (2014)
                                                                          In contrast retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot and Lowes are
easing the cost of logistics and shipping, there has been a reduced
                                                                          providing a strong online experience. Mobile apps that navigate              Population: 319m (2014)
investment in freight rail, roads, bridges and ports relative to other
                                                                          stores, find products and direct orders to fulfilment centers are
regions over the past few decades, and journey times in comparison
                                                                          common-place and growing.                                                    Unemployment: 7.4% (2013)
are long and uncompetitive. As a result, the US has a growing
need to invest in infrastructure, as shown in Arcadis’ report Global      The US retailing environment was irrevocably changed by the
                                                                                                                                                       Consumer Price Index: 1.6% (2014) worldbank.org
Infrastructure Investment Index 2014, placing the USA tenth out           recession and, while parts of the economy look ready to surge
of 41 countries for the greatest potential for growth and investment      ahead, the picture as a whole is a mixed one.
                                                                                                                                                       Retail Growth: 5% y/y (Sep 2014) tradingeconomics.com
in their economic infrastructure. There is a growing need to renovate                                                                                  -0.3% m/m (Sep 2014) reuters.com
                                                                          Retailers should be aware that recent regulatory enforcement
and upgrade existing assets, with costs estimated by the American
                                                                          initiatives focused on the retail market at the national and state
Society of Civil Engineers at $3.6 trillion by 2020.
                                                                          levels (US Environmental Protection Agency, Occupational Safety
The highly fragmented nature of the US retail market has meant            and Health Administration and equivalent) have also presented
that its gradual revival is not homogeneous and has generally been        challenges and have the potential to increase operational costs in
focused in major cities, with many suburban areas still experiencing      the year ahead. However we believe that consumer spending will
downsizing and closure of stores.                                         grow steadily over the coming months, supported by stronger job
                                                                          creation, low interest rates and lessening levels of household debt.
Despite a tepid economic recovery in many parts of the US, certain
locations and sectors remain strong. Overall vacancy rates are at         To operate successfully in the USA, the retailer should understand
their lowest levels in three years resulting in a corresponding rise in   the fragmented nature of its market; much of the consumer
rental rates particularly seen in the major cities such as Houston,       spending will be in food and high-end retail due to increasing
Chicago, Boston, New York City and San Francisco. Some of this can        disparities in household earnings. The polarisation affect is driving
be attributed to longer opening hours which are generating higher         out mid-range retail players and this is particularly impacting
revenues, as evidenced in Trader Joes for example, where substantial      the saturated department store retailers in a similar way as the
customer numbers are frequenting the stores until their 10pm              trends we are seeing in the UK and Western Europe. This should be
closing time. Furthermore, we are seeing markets strengthening in         considered carefully in expansion or optimization strategies.
New England, the West Coast, the Gulf Coast, and to some degree,
the South East.

There is real consolidation in US grocery wholesalers that could
change the availability and pricing structures for retailers in
subsequent years. In this market there is shift towards ‘high end’ and
specialty foods that are more profitable, especially in those more
affluent regions.                                                                     3 USA
Many of the food retailers have been traditionally very regional
and we are starting to see expansion beyond their small cluster of
states, such as is evident with Meijer, Marianos and Heinens in the
Mid-West. Contrary to some other retail sectors, many food retailers
are experiencing a shift from destination big box single tenant stores
to convenience locations. Focus is on attracting increased footfall
through creating bespoke customer experiences in an effort to lift
revenues and reduce footprint.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                    ← START        I   CONTENTS →     22

LATIN AMERICA                                                                 SPOTLIGHT ON: BRAZIL ► MEXICO ►

In spite of fractured markets and continuing economic uncertainty
in Latin America, a growing consumer class has proven resilient
against entrenched corruption, roller-coaster inflation and eroding   BRAZIL
currencies. Throughout the majority of the region’s commercial        With poor infrastructure and economic and business
markets, falling commodity prices and a strong US dollar have         environments, Brazil nears the bottom of our index at 40.
slowed growth in larger cities, notably Sao Paulo, while oversupply
and slow demand continue to push vacancies up and rents down.         A principal reason for its low ranking is high tax levels,
Nonetheless, there are positive signs and many retailers are taking   particularly import and distribution tax. These taxes combined
advantage of changing franchise regulations and the lack of           make imported goods almost a third more expensive than
modern formats to push ahead with expansion plans.                    equivalent local goods and this understandably is discouraging
                                                                      consumers and retailers alike. Brazil’s highly regulated labor
                                                                      market and consumer debt have resulted in low investment
                                                                      in infrastructure leaving much of the networks in need of
   6 Canada
                                                                      intensive upgrade. Only 1.5% of GDP is invested in infrastructure
                                                                      development.

                                                                      However, Brazil’s growing middle class and reasonably
                                                                      unsaturated retail market is providing some incentive for
                                                                      retailers. Retailing continued to show healthy sales growth in
                                                                      consumer goods and midrange fashion as well as electronic
            3 USA                                                     appliances and pharmaceutical retail.

                                                                      The competitive landscape is growing and we are experiencing
                                                                      greater competition between retailers in Brazil. Multi-channel
                                                                      strategies are growing in popularity, GDP has increased in recent
               25 Mexico                                              years, and despite an uncertain economic outlook, it is predicted
                                                                      that the retail sector will experience steady growth in 2015.
                                                                      Although local players dominate much of the market, many
                Costa Rica 34                                         international retailers see this as an opportunity and several of
                                                                      the grocery retailers, including Carrefour and Walmart, have
                                      28 Columbia
                                                                      experienced successes to date.

                                                                      The main caution for international players considering entry is
                                                                      the deficiencies in the country’s infrastructure and a failure to
                               Peru 31                Brazil 40                                                                           Brazil key stats:
                                                                      address complications in regulatory issues for FDI.
                                                                                                                                                GDP: $2,346bn (2014)

                                                  47 Paraguay                                                                                   GDP growth: 0.14% (2014)

                                                                                                                                                Population: 202m (2014)
                                                     44 Uruguay
                                 Chile 19     48 Argentina                                                                                      Unemployment: 5.9% (2013)

                                                                                                                                                Consumer Price Index: 6.3% (2014) worldbank.org

                                                                                                                                                Retail Growth: -0.9% y/y (July 2014) www.arcadis.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                       ← START       I   CONTENTS →         23

LATIN AMERICA                                                                 SPOTLIGHT ON: BRAZIL ► MEXICO ►

In spite of fractured markets and continuing economic uncertainty
in Latin America, a growing consumer class has proven resilient
against entrenched corruption, roller-coaster inflation and eroding
currencies. Throughout the majority of the region’s commercial
markets, falling commodity prices and a strong US dollar have
slowed growth in larger cities, notably Sao Paulo, while oversupply
                                                                      MEXICO
and slow demand continue to push vacancies up and rents down.         Ranked at number 25 in the index, Mexico is proving an
Nonetheless, there are positive signs and many retailers are taking   interesting country to watch. A weak economic climate has
advantage of changing franchise regulations and the lack of           typically led to caution in this market historically, but with
modern formats to push ahead with expansion plans.                    a growing middle class, reduction in petroleum prices and
                                                                      administrative reforms attempting to create a more stable
                                                                      business environment, we are seeing a trend of foreign retailers
   6 Canada                                                           entering the market. Luxury retail, pharmaceutical retail, apparel
                                                                      and several retail banks are all in competition for prime space.

                                                                      Where existing retailers, particularly in food, are reaching
                                                                      saturation in Tier 1 cities such as Mexico City and Monterrey,
                                                                      plans to expand into Tier 2 cities are underway and here lies the
                                                                      biggest opportunity for retailers entering the market.

                                                                      Retailers are up against significant challenges which are
            3 USA
                                                                      highlighted by the lower scores of infrastructure and economic
                                                                      environment in our index. These include Mexico’s high
                                                                      unemployment, income level inequality and elevated inflation.

                                                                      Retailers considering Mexico in their portfolio should also be
               25 Mexico
                                                                      aware of, and learn from, mistakes made in China where a lack of
                                                                      data around sales and consumer statistics led to the closure of
                                                                      underperforming stores. Plans should most definitely consider
                                                                                                                                             Mexico key stats:
                Costa Rica 34
                                                                      the Tier 2 growing cities but also factor in the challenges around
                                                                                                                                                   GDP: $1,282bn (2014)
                                      28 Columbia                     availability of sales data and infrastructure quality for logistical
                                                                      purposes as well as closely monitoring the economic recovery.                GDP growth: 2.12% (2014)

                               Peru 31                Brazil 40                                                                                    Population: 124m (2014)

                                                                                                                                                   Unemployment: 4.9% (2013)

                                                  47 Paraguay                                                                                      Consumer Price Index: 4% (2014) worldbank.org

                                                                                                                                                   Retail Growth: 1.2% y/y (Nov 2014) tradingeconomics.com
                                                     44 Uruguay
                                 Chile 19     48 Argentina
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                                      ← START        I   CONTENTS →      24

THE MIDDLE EAST                                                                  SPOTLIGHT ON: UAE ►

Overall, the retail market is booming across the Gulf Cooperation                                     45
Council (GCC). High levels of wealth and disposable income for the
majority of GCC nationals and sections of the expat communities
are driving a high level of spending. Whilst the majority of major
brands are already located in the region, many more are looking
to enter the market and or to further increase their presence. A
                                                                         UAE
growing population, and one that is increasingly fashion conscious, is   The UAE ranks eighth overall, with a strong economic
attracting all the major fashion brands.                                 environment and infrastructure ranking. Much of the UAE retail
                                                                         is driven by the tourist industry that further boomed in 2014
Automotive retail is enjoying a boost with Infiniti reporting Q2 sales   due to government efforts to maintain a wide number of tourist
increase of 31% compared to the same period last year. A surge of        attractions, and a high calibre infrastructure in the country. A
high-end retail malls has also attracted the retailer and this makes     healthy performance is forecasted and consumer confidence
the UAE one of the most lucrative markets for foreign investors.         will be boosted as a result of economic stability, which will in
                                                                         turn lead to more spending, higher employment and increased
                                                                         numbers of expats and tourists.
                                                                                                                                            Key stats:
                                                                         Retailers entering or optimising portfolios in the UAE need to
                                                                         be aware of these demographics and market demands and                    GDP: $402bn (2014)
                                                                         tailor their portfolios accordingly. Most retail categories are
                                                                         expected to thrive, with the exception of grocery retail which           GDP growth: 3.61% (2014)
                                                                         has been constrained by government price controls that protect
                                                                         consumers from inflation of imported foods. This in turn has             Population: 9.45m (2014)
                                                                         affected revenues for the grocery retailers.
                                                                                                                                                  Unemployment: 3.8% (2013)

                                                                                                                                                  Consumer Price Index: 2.3% (2014) worldbank.org

                                                                                                                                                  Retail Growth: 5% (2014) gulfnews.com emirates247.com

           Kuwait
           32
                   Qatar
                15
                       8 United Arab Emirates

    17 Saudi Arabia
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                                                                 ← START   I   CONTENTS →   25

WHAT CAN RETAILERS DO TO ENSURE OPTIMUM RESULTS
FROM THEIR STORE PORTFOLIOS ACROSS THE GLOBE?
 The success of a retailer’s portfolio lies in integrating               100                           ASSESS                                               ASSESS
 demographic and market information into a robust
 omni-channel strategy based around consumer
 preferences.
 Retailers will have detailed information on sales per store and
 on various fixed and variable operating costs, but the key to a

                                                                          PROPERTY FLEXIBILITY SCORE
 successful portfolio is in understanding the variables that affect
 these figures and the relationships between them.

 These variables include:
 ■ Location

 ■ Footprint

 ■ Functionality

 ■ Flexibility

 ■ Fiscal Impact

 ■ Design Impact.

 ■ Socio-economic market dynamics.

 Knowing how to optimise these variables, and comparing them
 for each store across an entire portfolio, can lead to faster
 and more accurate decision-making, and consequentially to
 achieving greater and more sustainable financial returns.

 The graph below illustrates areas for portfolio optimization by
 highlighting the highest and lowest performing stores against the
 highest and lowest flexibility scores to potentially improve sales.
 The flexibility score measures the retailers ability has to change
 property attributes of a location e.g. ability to relocate, terminate
 or sub-let).

                                                                                                       CLOSE                                RENEW LEASE/ ACQUIRE

                                                                         0.0                                             SALES PER STORE                         100
                                                                                                        BEFORE TRANSFORMATION   AFTER TRANSFORMATION
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX                                                                        ← START   I   CONTENTS →   26

       CASE STUDY

`The   Challenge                                          BEFORE CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE PORTFOLIO AFTER OPTIMIZATION ►
A retailer with a large store portfolio across Asia had
expanded at pace and scale over the past five years
resulting in an inconsistent customer experience and
subsequently, poorly performing stores. The retailer
was looking for ways to achieve higher returns from
their store portfolio.

The Approach
The first step to solving the problem was to understand
why some stores were achieving higher returns than
others in the portfolio, and to consider which lessons
they could apply to the poorer performing stores to
reduce unnecessary operating costs and help improve
sales.
The next step involved collating a large amount of
detailed information, such as performance figures,
location demographics, space efficiency, condition of
the store property etc. in order to get a clear picture
of the current situation.
In order to fully understand this information, the data
was entered into a model which generated simulated
results that could test the impact of various strategic
decisions on the retailer’s portfolio and help make
the right investments or divestments to improve                                            BEFORE
portfolio returns.                                        TOTAL STORE NO.                  12
A Positive Outcome                                        FLAGSHIP                         4
                                                          STANDARD                         3
The results were significant, providing the retailer      MINI                             5
with a reduction in operating expenditure and square      SQFT                             38,000
footage and improving the customer experience in
                                                          SALES HEADCOUNT                  200
selected stores through added innovative design. This
led to a portfolio that generated greater returns, as     REVENUE                          45M
can be evidenced in the graphic on the right.             EXPENSE                          20M
                                                          ROI                              2.3
You can also read