Risk Nexus Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures

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Risk Nexus Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Risk Nexus
Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits
and costs of alternate cyber futures
Risk Nexus Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Contents

                             Foreword1

                             Executive summary                                     2

                             Premise explained                                     6

                             The model and process                                 8

                             Measuring the economic benefits of ICT                10

                             Measuring the economic costs of ICT                   11

                             Base case: Benefits and costs to 2030                 12

                             Comparing costs and benefits: the bad news            14

                             Comparing costs and benefits: the great news          15

                             Comparing costs and benefits: by economy and region   16

                             Alternate worlds: exploring the future                17

                             Alternate worlds: Cyber Shangri-La                    18

                             Alternate worlds: Clockwork Orange Internet           19

                             Alternate worlds: Leviathan Internet                  20

                             Alternate worlds: Independent Internet                21

                             Costs and benefits in alternate worlds                22

                             Implications for 2020 and 2030                        24

                             Implications and recommendations for companies        28

                             Implications and recommendations for policymakers     30

                             Conclusion32

                             About us and this report                              33

                             End notes                                             34

Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Risk Nexus Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Foreword

                         The globalization of value chains, increased financial
                         integration, rapid urbanization, and the Internet’s ubiquity
                         have all accelerated worldwide economic growth over the
                         past few decades. Unfortunately, these same developments
                         have also significantly increased our vulnerability to external
                         shocks and global crises. With risks mounting and traditional
                         systems of control weakening, now is the time to ask: do the
                         risks of being connected outweigh the benefits to global
                         economic growth?

                         Zurich Insurance Group and the Atlantic        Futures at the University of Denver to
                         Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on            conduct extensive quantitative analysis
                         International Security are engaged in          based on dozens of global sources and
Frederick Kempe,         a multi-year partnership to examine            inputs – from Oxford University in the
President and CEO        that question as a continuation of our         UK to Abu Dhabi, Sao Paulo, Montreal,
Atlantic Council
                         previous collaboration on systemic             Singapore, and Washington, DC.
                         cyber risks. Our groundbreaking report,
                                                                  After this open process, we modeled
                         Beyond Data Breaches: Global
                                                                  the economic benefits from information
                         Aggregations of Cyber Risk, published in
                                                                  and communication technologies (ICT)
                         April 2014 was our first answer on this
                                                                  and related cybersecurity costs. The
                         topic and went well beyond well-known
                                                                  difference between our model’s best
                         common cyber risks to explore the
                                                                  and worst forecasts through 2030 is
                         potential for broader cyber shocks.
                                                                  a startling USD 120 trillion, or about
                         That first report examined how a ’Lehman 6 percent of cumulative global GDP,
                         Brothers moment‘ at a too-big-to-fail    driven largely by accumulating costs
                         communications technology firm,          from cyber incidents.
                         wiping out droves of vital consumer
                                                                  With this report, we hope to raise
                         data, might cause a cascading failure
                                                                  awareness about the need to work as
                         throughout the wider economy.
                                                                  a global community towards a more
                         This second report in the series expands secure, resilient, and prosperous Internet
                         on that scenario, building on this       for decades to come. Our specific
                         concept of ‘cyber sub-prime.’ We use     recommendations for enhancing the cyber
                         economic modeling tools to understand, commons offer an initial roadmap for
Cecilia Reyes,           for the first time, how cyber costs and  economists, technologists, cybersecurity
Chief Risk Officer       benefits might affect global gross       practitioners and researchers, and
Zurich Insurance Group   domestic product (GDP) over time and     perhaps the public as a whole.
                         how we can steer ourselves towards
                                                                  The subsequent reports in this series,
                         the most rewarding futures.
                                                                  due in 2016, will use the model and
                         The Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft   methodology pioneered here to explore
                         Center on International Security teamed geopolitical and demographic risks.
                         with the Pardee Center for International

                                       Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures   1
Risk Nexus Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Executive summary

                                                        In 2030, will the Internet and related                                                                             Teaming with the Pardee Center at the
                                                        information and communications                                                                                     University of Denver, we modeled the
                                                        technologies (ICT) continue to drive                                                                               economic benefits from ICT and the
    The accumulated global benefits                     global innovation and prosperity? Or,                                                                              associated cybersecurity costs. To model
    of being connected should still                     will that bright promise be swamped by                                                                             the benefits, we researched the
    outpace the costs through the year                  an unstable and insecure Internet, so                                                                              contribution to GDP of the ICT sector
                                                        overwhelmed by non-stop attacks that                                                                               itself, the benefit of ICT to the rest of
    2030 by nearly USD 160 trillion.”
                                                        it has become an increasing drag on                                                                                the economy, as well as the benefit to
                                                        economic growth? The answers, as far                                                                               consumers. The costs included direct
                                                        as we can predict, are not promising                                                                               cybersecurity spending, the losses from
                                                        and mean the difference in tens of                                                                                 cyber incidents, and opportunity costs
                                                        trillions of dollars in global economic                                                                            because economies may not be making
                                                        growth over the next fifteen years.                                                                                full use of ICT.
                                                        So far, cyberspace has been safe enough,                                                                           A future where the annual costs of
                                                        secure enough, and resilient enough for                                                                            being connected outweigh the benefits
                                                        the past decades to re-invent nearly                                                                               is not only possible, it is happening now.
                                                        every industry, create a ’hyperconnected                                                                           According to our project models, annual
                                                        world,’ and transform the global economy.                                                                          cybersecurity costs in high-income
                                                                                                                                                                           economies like the U.S. have already
                                                        Unfortunately, these benefits come with
                                                                                                                                                                           begun to outweigh the annual economic
                                                        an increased dependence on a shared,
                                                                                                                                                                           benefits arising from global connectivity.
                                                        stunningly complex system-of-systems,
                                                        which no one truly understands in its                                                                              For all economies, the inversion of costs
                                                        entirety. Most of the recent cybersecurity                                                                         and benefits is expected to occur within
                                                        trends point to a darker future, with                                                                              the next five years. In Latin America, it is
                                                        every year worse than the last: more                                                                               expected before the year 2030, as the
                                                        data breaches, more disclosures of                                                                                 region bridges the digital divide. In the
                                                        critical vulnerabilities, and more nations                                                                         Asia-Pacific region, the inversion is
                                                        building and employing offensive                                                                                   expected sometime after that. (Figure 1)
                                                        cyber capabilities.
                                                                                                                                                                           This is the bad news.

                                                        Figure 1: ICT cyber benefits and costs, global annual totals,
                                                        2010-2030
                                                                       1.4

                                                                       1.3

                                                                       1.2
                                                      percent of GDP

                                                                       1.1

                                                                        1

                                                                       0.9

                                                                       0.8
                                                                             2010
                                                                                    2011
                                                                                           2012
                                                                                                  2013
                                                                                                         2014
                                                                                                                2015
                                                                                                                       2016
                                                                                                                              2017
                                                                                                                                     2018
                                                                                                                                            2019
                                                                                                                                                   2020
                                                                                                                                                          2021
                                                                                                                                                                 2022
                                                                                                                                                                        2023
                                                                                                                                                                               2024
                                                                                                                                                                                      2025
                                                                                                                                                                                             2026
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2027
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2028
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2029
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2030

                                                                                                                              benefits                     costs
                                                        Note: Using 5-year moving average
                                                        Source: IFs 7.15

2   Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Risk Nexus Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Fortunately, there is good news, and                                                                                    originally felt, whereas the costs tend
  it is actually pretty great.                                                                                            to be experienced as ’one offs.’
  Although the one-time costs of being                                                                                    In our Base Case, the accumulated global
  connected are higher on an annual                                                                                       benefits of being connected should still
  basis, benefits accumulate over time,                                                                                   outpace the costs through the year 2030
  as they tend to be made as long-term                                                                                    by nearly USD 160 trillion (constant
  investments in productivity. In other                                                                                   2011 US dollars), an 8 percent gain in
  words, cyber benefits tend to keep                                                                                      the cumulative global GDP between
  delivering each year after they are                                                                                     2010 and 2030.

  Figure 2: ICT cyber benefits and costs, global cumulative
  totals, in USD trillion, 2010-2030
                    200
                    180
                    160
trillion USD 2011

                    140
                    120
                    100
                    80
                    60
                    40
                    20
                     0
                            2010
                                   2011
                                          2012
                                                 2013
                                                        2014
                                                               2015
                                                                      2016
                                                                             2017
                                                                                    2018
                                                                                           2019
                                                                                                  2020
                                                                                                         2021
                                                                                                                2022
                                                                                                                       2023
                                                                                                                              2024
                                                                                                                                     2025
                                                                                                                                            2026
                                                                                                                                                   2027
                                                                                                                                                          2028
                                                                                                                                                                 2029
                                                                                                                                                                        2030
                          cumulative benefits (compounded)                                                      cumulative costs (additive)
  Source: IFs 7.15

  Table 1: Expected GDP in 2030. This table adds context for interpreting the costs
  and benefits in the report, relative to the size of the global economy in 2030

  Region                                                Annual GDP in 2030                                                                          Cumulative GDP
                                                        (at market exchange rate)                                                                   (at market exchange rate)
  World                                                 USD 135 trillion                                                                            USD 2,000 trillion
  High-income
                                                        USD 70 trillion                                                                             USD 1,200 trillion
  economies*
  U.S.                                                  USD 24 trillion                                                                             USD 400 trillion

  *World Bank definition

                                                 Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures                                              3
Risk Nexus Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
We also examined four alternate futures.                                                                              Steering towards these trillions of
                                                        In the best future of Cyber Shangri-La,                                                                               dollars of global economic benefits
                                                        where technology booms are driven                                                                                     requires a range of actions today from
    Cyber attackers dragging down                       by strong cybersecurity, the recurring                                                                                states, companies, non-state groups,
    the Internet might cost the world                   annual economic benefits result in a                                                                                  and individuals.
    nearly USD 90 trillion.”                            cumulative net global gain of USD 190
                                                                                                                                                                              A strong and resilient Internet will be
                                                        trillion by the year 2030 – about USD
                                                                                                                                                                              driven by a healthy non-state sector,
                                                        30 trillion higher than that of the Base
                                                                                                                                                                              supported when needed by governments.
                                                        Case. In the worst future of a Clockwork
                                                                                                                                                                              Avoiding the worst futures is a global
                                                        Orange Internet, cyber attackers
                                                                                                                                                                              collective action problem that requires
                                                        dragging down the Internet might cost
                                                                                                                                                                              a sense of joint stewardship over the
                                                        the world nearly USD 90 trillion of
                                                                                                                                                                              Internet, needing actions that go far
                                                        potential net economic benefit1. In a
                                                                                                                                                                              beyond just admonitions to ‘improve
                                                        Leviathan Internet future, governments
                                                                                                                                                                              cyber security.’ We must also focus on
                                                        impose strong Internet borders, and
                                                                                                                                                                              improving resilience and, above all,
                                                        global benefits drop by around USD 20
                                                                                                                                                                              international governance for the globe
                                                        trillion when compared to the Base Case
                                                                                                                                                                              and the Internet.
                                                        and a fourth alternate future, the
                                                        corporate-driven Independent Internet.

                                                        Figure 3: ICT cyber net benefits or costs, global cumulative
                                                        total, in USD trillion, by scenario, 2010-2030
                                                                          200

                                                                          150
                                                      trillion USD 2011

                                                                          100

                                                                          50

                                                                           0
                                                                                2010
                                                                                       2011
                                                                                              2012
                                                                                                     2013
                                                                                                            2014
                                                                                                                   2015
                                                                                                                          2016
                                                                                                                                 2017
                                                                                                                                        2018
                                                                                                                                               2019
                                                                                                                                                      2020
                                                                                                                                                             2021
                                                                                                                                                                    2022
                                                                                                                                                                           2023
                                                                                                                                                                                  2024
                                                                                                                                                                                         2025
                                                                                                                                                                                                2026
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2027
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2028
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2029
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2030

                                                                                  Base Case                        Clockwork Orange     Independent Internet
                                                                                                                     Leviathan    Shangri-La

4   Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Risk Nexus Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
About the Principal Investigators
Jason Healey is Senior Fellow for Cyber Statecraft at the Cyber Statecraft
Initiative of the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International
Security and Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s School of
International and Public Affairs.
Barry Hughes is the John Evans Professor at the Josef Korbel School
of International Studies at the University of Denver and Director of the
Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

For more details on the model, data, and process used in this report, please
see the companion report produced by the Pardee Center, available at
www.pardee.du.edu

            Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures   5
Premise explained

                                                                              Newspaper headlines inundate us with                     imagine the question to be irrelevant,
                                                                              stories about the risks associated with                  believing that they could always surf
                                                                              our increasingly interconnected lives and                new waves of innovation and invention
                                                                              digitized economies: cyber failures and                  to stay ahead of the dangers. The truth
                                                                              outages, espionage against (or indeed                    probably lies somewhere in the middle.
                                                                              by) government agencies, massive data                    As the renowned cybersecurity expert Dan
                                                                              breaches involving tens of millions of                   Geer has suggested, “[a] technology
                                                                              retail and bank customers, and damaging                  that can give you everything you want
                                                                              and disruptive attacks by nations against                is a technology that can take away
                                                                              one another.                                             everything that you have.”2
                                                                              Yet we still believe that the benefits of                Economic modeling, even when based
                                                                              being connected are worth these risks.                   on limited data, is an important way to
                                                                              As individuals, we continue to buy new                   explore these kinds of alternate futures.
                                                                              smartphones and apps and connect our                     At the beginning of the process of
                                                                              houses, cars, and even medical devices                   working on this report, the modeling
                                                                              to the Internet. At the same time,                       team at the University of Denver’s Pardee
                                                                              companies increasingly depend on                         Center created two graphs to illustrate the
                                                                              connectivity to drive their business                     above premise. Figure 4 shows that early
                                                                              models, even outsourcing business-critical               on, the annual benefits of being
                                                                              infrastructure through cloud computing                   interconnected far outweigh the costs
                                                                              and storage.                                             but that theoretically, there could be an
                                                                                                                                       inversion at some point in the future.
                                                                              This report seeks to answer a critical
                                                                              risk management question for the        Cyber benefits keep delivering
                                                                              twenty-first century:                   compounding rewards years after the
                                                                                                                      initial investment, whilst the costs tend
                                                                              Will the risks of being interconnected
                                                                                                                      to be one-off expenses. So even after
                                                                              start to outweigh the benefits?
                                                                                                                      such a theoretical future inversion, the
                                                                              Certainly, many cyber security experts  accumulated benefits might still continue
                                                                              have repeatedly warned us that a series to outpace costs, as shown in Figure 5.
                                                                              of ‘digital Pearl Harbors‘ or other     The project team then gathered data to
                                                                              catastrophes might tip the balance,     feed the economic models to see if an
                                                                              causing security and response costs     inversion was likely to happen in the
                                                                              to outweigh the benefits from ICT       future and if the accumulated benefits
                                                                              to global GDP. Others, such as the      would stay ahead of costs, Figure 5.
                                                                              techno-enthusiasts in Silicon Valley,

      Figure 4: Illustration of a hypothetical future where costs                                   Figure 5: Should annual costs (in stone) increase, the way
      outweigh benefits on an annual basis                                                          benefits (in blue) compound over time suggests that the
                                                                                                    overall impact should still be positive

                            Benefits
    percent of GDP

                            Costs
                                                                                                    GDP

                     Time                                                               Future            Time                                                                     Future

      Note: This graphic represents both costs and benefits as flows (percent of GDP)               Note: This graphic illustrates the compounding benefits of ICT/cyber contributions to economic
                                                                                                    productivity and illustrates the growth of costs through simple annual additions
      Source: Authors’ conception
                                                                                                    Source: Authors’ conception

6     Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Box 1: An example of the balance of cyber benefits and risks:
annual versus cumulative3
In 2013, Mom and Pop Dry Cleaners             generating a surprisingly coincidental
bought a computer to better manage            contribution to profit of USD 3,000.
their purchase of supplies. Their profits     They again used their computer and
in 2009 had been USD 300,000, and             earlier software purchases to recognize
the new computer helped them save             the savings in supply and benefits of
USD 3,000 (1 percent) on supply               the customer database for a total
costs in 2010 even after the initial          cyber contribution to profits of USD
capital investment.                           9,000. Unfortunately, that same year,
                                              hackers broke through their new
Unfortunately, Pop downloaded
                                              security system, and the firm that
malware, and the firm hired to clean
                                              patched them up charged USD 4,500.
their system charged USD 3,000 –
a one-time cost that completely offset        Evaluating the benefits of the path
that year’s savings. In 2014, they            they started to follow in 2013, Mom
downloaded a software package to              said to Pop: “This year the annual
manage their customer database                risk-related costs of keeping these
and used it, adding USD 3,000 to              bloody systems more than offset the
their profits.                                annual boost to profits (USD 3,000
                                              minus USD 4,500). But the cumulative
Because the computer was still saving
                                              contributions to our profits keep
them money on supply ordering,
                                              compounding: USD 3,000 plus USD
Mom and Pop’s total cyber benefit
                                              6,000 plus USD 9,000 equals USD
that year was USD 6,000. But they
                                              18,000, while the risk-related costs
also paid USD 3,000 to another firm
                                              we pay each year are one-time
that greatly enhanced the security of
                                              (USD 3,000 plus USD 3,000 plus
their systems.
                                              USD 4,500 equals USD 10,500). Next
Then, in 2015, they downloaded                year in 2016, I want to invest USD
more software allowing them to mail           3,000 to create a webpage and get
out specials and attract more clients,        the word out about our shop!”

             Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures   7
The model and process

                                                      This report’s quantitative findings are        including GDP per capita and economic
                                                      based on the International Futures (IFs)       growth rates, to explore very different
                                                      forecasting system, run by the University      assumptions around the future of ICT
                                                      of Denver’s Pardee Center for                  and the implications of alternative
                                                      International Futures. The forecasting         possible scenarios.
                                                      model was used as the primary tool to
                                                                                                     The modeling started with a ‘Base Case’
                                                      display and analyze historical data as well
                                                                                                     estimate of how past trends might
                                                      as to forecast and develop alternative
                                                                                                     continue into the future, then examined
                                                      future scenarios. The IFs model represents
                                                                                                     four alternative scenarios that differ in
                                                      186 countries in different stages of socio-
                                                                                                     critical ways.
                                                      economic development and adoption of
                                                      ICT technologies. It encompasses a set         However, this modeling was limited
                                                      of heavily integrated and rich models:         by the lack of comprehensive data,
                                                      demographic, economic, human                   especially on the economic costs of
                                                      development (education and health),            adverse cybersecurity events. Roughly
                                                      physical (energy, agriculture, and             150 different ICT-related data series
                                                      infrastructure), and socio-political           were included in this analysis, and yet
                                                      (governance and government finance).           there was little comprehensive data
                                                                                                     across countries and time. For additional
                                                      The modeling team worked to produce
                                                                                                     context, the Atlantic Council also
                                                      a rough understanding of the relative
                                                                                                     organized a series of global meetings
                                                      benefits and costs of ICT. This is the first
                                                                                                     – from Oxford University in the UK to
                                                      attempt to build exhaustive typologies
                                                                                                     Abu Dhabi, Sao Paulo, Montreal,
                                                      of different cyber benefits and costs in
                                                                                                     Singapore, and Washington, DC.
                                                      order to compare them and provide an
                                                      overall assessment of current benefits      Due to the lack of comprehensive data
                                                      and costs.                                  and the fact that this was the first major
                                                                                                  attempt to model cyber benefits and
                                                      The IFs forecasting model builds on this
                                                                                                  costs, this report is correspondingly
                                                      initial data using cross-country comparison
                                                                                                  cautious on the findings. As Dan Geer,
                                                      and longitudinal series when possible.
                                                                                                  who specializes in metrics, has said,
                                                      The model incorporates measures of ICT
                                                                                                  “it is the trend that matters... look at
                                                      penetration or pervasiveness and of ICT
                                                                                                  the shape” of the curves.4 And the
                                                      spending as driving variables for future
                                                                                                  general trends identified in this report
                                                      benefits and costs. It draws upon existing
                                                                                                  should help drive the global debate on
                                                      variables already in the IFs model,
                                                                                                  cybersecurity problems and solutions.

                                                          For more details on the model, data, and process used in this report, please
                                                          see and use the IFs model at http://www.pardee.du.edu, find the companion
                                                          report produced by the Denver University’s Pardee Center for International
                                                          Futures at http://www.pardee.du.edu/cyber-benefits-and-risks-quantitatively-
                                                          understanding-and-forecasting-balance, and use the dashboard for simplified
                                                          computer or mobile device analysis of our forecasts at http://www.ifs.du.edu/
                                                          ifs/frm_CyberDashboard.aspx

8   Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Box 2: The promise and peril: new waves of technology
                                      The benefits of technology are               security-dependent technologies
At least five of the top six game-    apparent everywhere, as is the ICT           could have potential economic impact
changing technologies require         that has most obviously changed              by 2025 of between USD 13 trillion
strong cybersecurity to unlock        our lives:                                   and USD 36 trillion, according to MGI.6
the benefits and avoid significant,
                                      • the personal computer, which took          Though MGI puts IoT only in the third
perhaps catastrophic costs.”
                                        computers out of a dedicated room          position, with potential economic
                                        staffed only by technicians, and put       upside impact of up to USD 6.2
                                        them on desktops in our homes              trillion, according to the experts
                                        and offices;                               interviewed for this report, it probably
                                                                                   has the highest potential security
                                      • mobile technology, which took
                                                                                   costs. The IoT connects the Internet
                                        those connected computers off the
                                                                                   to physical objects, from electrical
                                        desktop and put them into our
                                                                                   generation and distribution down
                                        pockets; and
                                                                                   to automobiles, thermostats, baby
                                      • the Internet, which connects all           monitors, and wearable fitness
                                        those computers, no matter where           bands. This connectivity can unlock
                                        they are on Earth.                         tremendous value and change lives
                                                                                   and societies, but unfortunately
                                      But what are the next potentially
                                                                                   security is rarely included.
                                      game-changing technologies?
                                                                                   These devices are typically far less
                                      The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)
                                                                                   secure than your computer or mobile
                                      foresees twelve such technologies,
                                                                                   phone, as there are few safety features
                                      many of which are heavily ICT
                                                                                   – the software is probably infrequently
                                      dependent.5 They are mobile Internet,
                                                                                   checked for vulnerabilities, it is difficult
                                      automation of knowledge work, the
                                                                                   to update with new software, and
                                      Internet of Things (IoT), cloud
                                                                                   there is likely no security software to
                                      technology, advanced robotics,
                                                                                   monitor for attacks.
                                      autonomous and near-autonomous
                                      vehicles, next-generation genomics,          As one report prepared for the
                                      energy storage, 3D printing,                 President of the United States put it,
                                      advanced materials, advanced oil             “There is a small – and rapidly closing
                                      and gas exploration and recovery,            – window to ensure that IoT is adopted
                                      and renewable energy.                        in a way that maximizes security and
                                                                                   minimizes risk. If the country fails to
                                      At least five of the top six (excluding
                                                                                   do so, it will be coping with the
                                      perhaps the automation of knowledge
                                                                                   consequences for generations.”7
                                      work) require strong cybersecurity
                                      to unlock the benefits and avoid             Unfortunately, that window has
                                      significant, perhaps catastrophic            probably already closed.
                                      costs. Together, those top five

                                                  Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures   9
Measuring the economic benefits of ICT

                                                                                               The benefits of ICT have emerged and                                                                2.ICT impact on productivity and
                                                                                               have been changing the world from                                                                     GDP for the economy as a whole:
                                                                                               three main sources:                                                                                   ICT doesn’t just benefit the companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                     that make them, but the rest of the
                                                                                               1.Direct contributions from the ICT
                                                                                                                                                                                                     economy as well, including benefits to
                                                                                                 sector itself: The direct value added
                                                                                                                                                                                                     manufacturers, bankers, and retailers
                                                                                                 to GDP by ICT sector companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                     who use ICTs. These contributions are
                                                                                                 (for example, from well-known major
                                                                                                                                                                                                     usually estimated to add between
                                                                                                 ICT companies like Apple, Microsoft,
                                                                                                                                                                                                     20 to 30 percent to economic growth.
                                                                                                 Intel, or Google) has been estimated
                                                                                                                                                                                                     This number translates to 0.6 to
                                                                                                 to have grown to 9 percent of total
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1.5 percentage points of absolute
                                                                                                 business value added in Organization
                                                                                                                                                                                                     contribution to global GDP growth
                                                                                                 for Economic Co-operation and
                                                                                                                                                                                                     (see Figure 7).
                                                                                                 Development (OECD) countries;
                                                                                                 however, in large part due to the                                                                 3.Benefits to consumers: The even
                                                                                                 continuing decline in ICT costs, the                                                                harder-to-measure ‘consumer surplus’
                                                                                                 direct value added has been falling                                                                 refers to benefits consumers receive
                                                                                                 over the past few years, bringing it                                                                from ICT, from either rapidly decreasing
                                                                                                 back down to around 6 percent today                                                                 prices or from improving capacity and
                                                                                                 (see Figure 6 for the information on                                                                quality at the same price (for example,
                                                                                                 OECD countries). The ICT sector share                                                               from Moore’s Law8). The same USD
                                                                                                 of GDP is still growing in developing                                                               1,000 buys a far more capable and
                                                                                                 countries but is relatively stable globally.                                                        productive computer now than it did
                                                                                                                                                                                                     ten years ago. The most convincing
                                                                                                                                                                                                     data we have found, however, suggest
                                                                                                                                                                                                     that consumer surplus contributions
                                                                                                                                                                                                     are about half of those from ICT’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                     boost to the growth of the economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                     as a whole.

    Figure 6: ICT value added as a percentage of total business                                                                           Figure 7: ICT capital services’ contribution to GDP growth,
    sector value added, average of OECD countries                                                                                         by World Bank country income group and world
             12                                                                                                                                     3

                                                                                                                                                   2.5
             10
                                                                                                                                                    2
                                                                                                                                         percent

             8
                                                                                                                                                   1.5
   percent

             6                                                                                                                                      1

                                                                                                                                                   0.5
             4

                                                                                                                                                    0
             2
                                                                                                                                                         1990
                                                                                                                                                                1991
                                                                                                                                                                       1992
                                                                                                                                                                              1993
                                                                                                                                                                                     1994
                                                                                                                                                                                            1995
                                                                                                                                                                                                   1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                          1997
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2012

             0                                                                                                                                             High-income countries   Upper-middle-income countries
                  1995

                         1996

                                1997

                                       1998

                                              1999

                                                     2000

                                                            2001

                                                                   2002

                                                                          2003

                                                                                 2004

                                                                                        2005

                                                                                               2006

                                                                                                      2007

                                                                                                             2008

                                                                                                                    2009

                                                                                                                           2010

                                                                                                                                  2011

                                                                                                                                                           Lower-middle-income countries   Low-income countries
                                                                                                                                                                                  World
    Source: OECD Factbook database, share of ICT value added, available at:
    http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/oecd-factbook-statistics/oecd-factbook_data-00590-en                                      Note: Simple cross-country averages of raw data used for each income grouping
                                                                                                                                          Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, contribution of ICT capital services to GDP Growth,
                                                                                                                                          2014, available at: https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/index.cfm?id=27762

10 Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Measuring the economic costs of ICT

                                                                           Data on the costs of an insecure Internet                                 erosion of innovation, and the theft of
                                                                           are very scarce and piecemeal, and not                                    confidential business information (like
                                                                           very confidence-inspiring. In general,                                    negotiating positions). According to
                                                                           there are three types of costs:                                           2014 estimates by the Center for
                                                                                                                                                     Strategic and International Studies
                                                                           1.Spending on cyber security: The
                                                                                                                                                     (CSIS), the costs of cybercrime range
                                                                             direct spending on cybersecurity
                                                                                                                                                     from 0.02 percent of GDP in Japan to
                                                                             solutions (such as firewalls and threat
                                                                                                                                                     1.6 percent in Germany. Values for the
                                                                             intelligence) is rising steadily,
                                                                                                                                                     U.S. and China are at 0.64 and 0.63
                                                                             approaching 0.1 percent of global
                                                                                                                                                     percent respectively, see Figure 9.11
                                                                             GDP and 0.35 percent of US GDP
                                                                             (see Figure 8).9 Two forces may be                                    3.Opportunity costs: These costs are
                                                                             driving these increases: the capabilities                               the unrealized economic benefits of
                                                                             of attackers to carry out increasingly                                  ICT, such as when companies forego
                                                                             complex actions, and the growth in                                      using new technologies because of
                                                                             assets that are accessible via networks                                 security concerns, or when nations
                                                                             and therefore vulnerable to attacks.10                                  chose not to embrace ICT for domestic
                                                                                                                                                     policy reasons. For example, if ICT
                                                                           2.Costs of adverse cyber events:
                                                                                                                                                     contributes to about one-fourth of
                                                                             These include all the costs of a
                                                                                                                                                     global growth, North Korea, which
                                                                             cyberattack or outage once it has
                                                                                                                                                     has virtually no ICT sector, would be
                                                                             occurred, from recovery costs to
                                                                                                                                                     foregoing nearly all of that potential
                                                                             financial crime, the value of stolen
                                                                                                                                                     (and Cuba perhaps half due to its
                                                                             intellectual property and related
                                                                                                                                                     fledgling ICT sector).

  Figure 8: Cybersecurity spending in the U.S., percent of GDP                                                               Figure 9: The cost of cybercrime and cyber espionage
  and USD billions, 2009-2017                                                                                                expressed as percent of GDP
                 70                                                                                  0.4                              1.80

                                                                                                     0.35                             1.60
                 60

                                                                                                                                      1.40
                                                                                                     0.3
                 50
                                                                                                                                      1.20
                                                                                                     0.25
percent of GDP

                                                                                                            billions, USD

                 40
                                                                                                                                      1.00
                                                                                                                            percent

                                                                                                     0.2
                 30                                                                                                                   0.80
                                                                                                     0.15
                                                                                                                                      0.60
                 20
                                                                                                     0.1
                                                                                                                                      0.40
                 10
                                                                                                     0.05                             0.20

                 0                                                                                   0                                  0
                      2009   2010   2011   2012    2013     2014      2015     2016      2017
                                                                                                                                                         Germany
                                                                                                                                                      Netherlands
                                                                                                                                                     United States
                                                                                                                                                             China
                                                                                                                                                        Singapore
                                                                                                                                                             Brazil
                                                                                                                                                           Norway
                                                                                                                                                              India
                                                                                                                                                           Ireland
                                                                                                                                                           Zambia
                                                                                                                                                          Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                           Canada
                                                                                                                                                           Mexico
                                                                                                                                                     Saudi Arabia
                                                                                                                                                 United Kingdom
                                                                                                                                                         Colombia
                                                                                                                                                    South African
                                                                                                                                                          Vietnam
                                                                                                                                                            France
                                                                                                                                             United Arab Emirates
                                                                                                                                               Russian Federation
                                                                                                                                                     New Zealand
                                                                                                                                                         Australia
                                                                                                                                                           Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                            Turkey
                                                                                                                                                               Italy
                                                                                                                                                             Japan
                                                                                                                                                            Kenya

                                            Absolute           %GDP
  Source: TIA’s 2010-2017 ICT Market Review and Forecast, available at: http://test.tiaonline.org/
  resources/market-forecast

                                                                                                                             Source: CSIS (2014)

                                                                                                         Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures 11
Base case: Benefits and costs to 2030

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       The International Telecommunications
                                                             Figure 10: ICT development index (ITU index replication),                                                                                                                                 Union (ITU) maintains an index of ICT
                                                             by World Bank country income group, 2002-2030                                                                                                                                             development that helps us understand
                                                                     10                                                                                                                                                                                past patterns and forecast future ones.13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Forecasts of mobile and broadband
                                                                      8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       connectivity levels, which are major drivers
                                                                      6                                                                                                                                                                                of the index, suggest a convergence in
                                                         index

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       the prevalence of ICT across economies
                                                                      4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       of different income levels as connectivity
                                                                      2                                                                                                                                                                                becomes universal (see Figure 10).
                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Of course, this is not the only possible
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       outcome, as future waves of ICT (such as
                                                                             2002

                                                                                       2004

                                                                                                  2006

                                                                                                           2008

                                                                                                                         2010

                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                           2014

                                                                                                                                                      2016

                                                                                                                                                              2018

                                                                                                                                                                            2020

                                                                                                                                                                                             2022

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2024

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2026

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2028

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2030
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       higher speeds, cloud computing, or IoT)
                                                                               High-income countries   Upper-middle-income countries                                                                                                                   might postpone saturation. Such alternate
                                                                               Lower-middle-income countries   Low-income countries                                                                                                                    futures are discussed later in this report,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       while the Base Case forecast represents
                                                             Source: Historical data (through 2013) from the ITU’s ICT Development Index (ITU 2014).
                                                             Forecast from IFs 7.15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       the ITU’s rather conservative outlook.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Regarding benefits, the main driver of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       economic growth is ICT’s contribution to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       other sectors. It may feel counterintuitive,
                                                                                                                     The modeling of the costs and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       given how much we can feel ICT changing
                                                                                                                     benefits of connectivity began with a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       the industries around us, but according
                                                                                                                     ‘Base Case.’ The Base Case in the IFs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       to extensive economic research, this
                                                                                                                     integrated modeling system captures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       contribution has in fact been mostly flat
                                                                                                                     a continuation of past and current
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       or declining in high-income economies.
                                                                                                                     patterns. It paints a picture of where the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Even so, ICT still provides about a
                                                                                                                     world is headed if these general trends
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1 percent annual boost to GDP growth.
                                                                                                                     continue without interruptions from
                                                                                                                     unforeseen, disruptive geopolitical,
                                                                                                                     economic, or technological crises.12

    Figure 11: ICT cyber benefit, annual boost to GDP growth,                                                                                                                       Figure 12: ICT cyber benefit, annual consumer surplus, by
    by World Bank country income group, 1990-2030                                                                                                                                   World Bank country income group, percent of GDP, 2006-2030
             2.5                                                                                                                                                                               0.8

              2
                                                                                                                                                                                               0.6
             1.5
   percent

                                                                                                                                                                                   percent

                                                                                                                                                                                               0.4
              1
                                                                                                                                                                                               0.2
             0.5

              0                                                                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2022
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2023
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2024
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2025
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2026
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2027
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2028
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2029
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2030
                   1990
                          1992
                                 1994
                                        1996
                                               1998
                                                      2000
                                                              2002
                                                                     2004
                                                                            2006
                                                                                    2008
                                                                                           2010
                                                                                                  2012
                                                                                                         2014
                                                                                                                  2016
                                                                                                                          2018
                                                                                                                                 2020
                                                                                                                                        2022
                                                                                                                                               2024
                                                                                                                                                      2026
                                                                                                                                                             2028
                                                                                                                                                                     2030

                    High-income economies     Upper-middle-income economies                                                                                                                               High-income economies     Upper-middle-income economies
                    Lower-middle-income economies     Low-income economies                                                                                                                                Lower-middle-income economies     Low-income economies
                                             World                                                                                                                                                                                 World
    Note: The graph uses a simple average of country values, because using a grouping of a few large GDP                                                                            Note: Using 5-year moving average
    countries (e.g. China) can otherwise distort the data. The graph also uses a five-year moving average.                                                                          Source: Historical data through 2010 are from OECD (2013). Data from 2010-2030 are from IFs 7.15
    The biggest discrepancy occurs between historical data and forecasts for lower-middle-income countries.
    In this area, our forecast may underestimate the future contribution of ICT, though the bubble of growth
    contributions in recent years may be temporary. Globally, there is strong continuity between historical
    data and forecasts.
    Source: Historical data through 2012 are from Conference Board (2014a and 2014b). Data from 2010-2030
    are from IFs 7.15

12 Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Since the overall size of the ICT sector                                                                   0.9 percent of global GDP (see Figure 14).
                                                                                                               has reached a roughly stable (or even                                                                      Here, low-income economies are highly
                                                                                                               declining) share of global GDP, the                                                                        dependent on the Internet, but lack of
                                                                                                               growth of that sector is unlikely to                                                                       security and resilience impose a relatively
                                                                                                               contribute much to growth rates of the                                                                     higher cost of about an additional
                                                                                                               average economy. The annual consumer                                                                       0.2 percent of GDP.
                                                                                                               surplus is much smaller, approaching
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Opportunity costs from not taking
                                                                                                               0.1 percent of GDP for high-income
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          advantage of ICT capabilities are
                                                                                                               economies but up to 0.7 percent for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          comparatively very low, typically below
                                                                                                               low-income economies.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.1 percent. At the beginning of this
                                                                                                               Direct global cyber security costs are                                                                     project, we expected such foregone
                                                                                                               forecast to continue to rise over the next                                                                 benefits to be significant because of
                                                                                                               fifteen years, though the spending curve                                                                   cybersecurity fears, but as Beau Woods,
                                                                                                               does become flatter. In high-income                                                                        one cybersecurity expert interviewed for
                                                                                                               economies, the direct spending on                                                                          this report, explained it, “decisions are
                                                                                                               cybersecurity reaches nearly 0.4 percent                                                                   usually made with implicit trust that
                                                                                                               of GDP by 2030 with low-income                                                                             cyber security measures will work.”14
                                                                                                               economies approaching 0.25 percent,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          These costs are high, but still far below
                                                                                                               as shown in Figure 13. In dollar terms,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the costs of other global scourges. For
                                                                                                               cybersecurity spending for 2015 is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          example, the Institute for Economics and
                                                                                                               estimated at roughly USD 250 billion (in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Peace 2015 Global Peace Index Report
                                                                                                               constant 2011 dollars), a cost that doubles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          estimated that the costs of sub-national
                                                                                                               by 2030 to nearly USD 500 billion.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          and international violence in 2014 is
                                                                                                               By 2030, the cost of adverse events                                                                        around USD 14.3 trillion or 13.4 percent
                                                                                                               could reach USD 1.2 trillion, or perhaps                                                                   of world GDP.15

 Figure 13: ICT cybersecurity spending, by World Bank country                                                                                                        Figure 14: ICT cyber adverse event costs, annual total, by
 income group, percent of GDP, 2010-2030                                                                                                                             World Bank country income group, Percent of GDP, 2010-2030
           0.4                                                                                                                                                                1.2
          0.35                                                                                                                                                                 1
           0.3
                                                                                                                                                                              0.8
          0.25
percent

                                                                                                                                                                    percent

           0.2                                                                                                                                                                0.6
          0.15                                                                                                                                                                0.4
           0.1
                                                                                                                                                                              0.2
          0.05
            0                                                                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                                                                    2010
                                                                                                                                                                                           2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                         2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2022
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2023
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2024
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2025
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2026
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2027
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2028
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2029
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2030
                 2010
                        2011
                               2012
                                      2013
                                             2014
                                                    2015
                                                           2016
                                                                  2017
                                                                         2018
                                                                                2019
                                                                                       2020
                                                                                              2021
                                                                                                     2022
                                                                                                            2023
                                                                                                                   2024
                                                                                                                          2025
                                                                                                                                 2026
                                                                                                                                        2027
                                                                                                                                               2028
                                                                                                                                                      2029
                                                                                                                                                             2030

                 High-income economies     Upper-middle-income economies                                                                                                            High-income economies     Upper-middle-income economies
                 Lower-middle-income economies     Low-income economies                                                                                                             Lower-middle-income economies     Low-income economies
                                          World                                                                                                                                                              World
 Source: IFs 7.15                                                                                                                                                    Source: IFs 7.15

                                                                                                                                                       Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures 13
Comparing costs and benefits: the bad news

                                                                                         Figure 15 compares the global annual                                                                          This turning point calls attention to
                                                                                         benefits and costs of ICT. Strikingly,                                                                        just how feeble cybersecurity has been
                                                                                         it is not just theoretically possible that                                                                    in the face of ever more dangerous
                                                                                         the annual costs of ICT security might                                                                        cyber-attacks. Either cybersecurity costs
                                                                                         outweigh the economic benefits of                                                                             need to become far more effective
                                                                                         connectivity; in fact, such an inversion is                                                                   (or significantly less expensive) or the
                                                                                         projected to occur in the next few years,                                                                     benefits of ICT need to continue to
                                                                                         perhaps even before the year 2020, at                                                                         multiply. Both of these potential futures
                                                                                         somewhere near 1.1 percent of global                                                                          are explored later in this report.
                                                                                         GDP (roughly USD 1 trillion). While this
                                                                                                                                                                                                       This conclusion has one very obvious
                                                                                         finding is in line with our initial
                                                                                                                                                                                                       caveat: both data and forecasting include
                                                                                         hypothesis, it was still surprising to see
                                                                                                                                                                                                       a great many assumptions and estimates.
                                                                                         that this event is already expected to
                                                                                                                                                                                                       The exact year of such a cross-over is
                                                                                         happen in the near future, according
                                                                                                                                                                                                       highly uncertain, and perhaps it will
                                                                                         to our model.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       never even occur, especially if the
                                                                                                                                                                                                       benefits or costs change significantly.

                              Figure 15: ICT cyber benefits and costs, global annual totals,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Benefits
                              2010-2030
                                             1.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                      percent of GDP

                                             1.3

                                             1.2
                            percent of GDP

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Costs
                                             1.1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Time              Future
                                              1

                                             0.9

                                             0.8
                                                   2010
                                                          2011
                                                                 2012
                                                                        2013
                                                                               2014
                                                                                      2015
                                                                                             2016
                                                                                                    2017
                                                                                                           2018
                                                                                                                  2019
                                                                                                                         2020
                                                                                                                                2021
                                                                                                                                       2022
                                                                                                                                              2023
                                                                                                                                                     2024
                                                                                                                                                            2025
                                                                                                                                                                   2026
                                                                                                                                                                          2027
                                                                                                                                                                                 2028
                                                                                                                                                                                        2029
                                                                                                                                                                                               2030

                                                                                                    benefits                     costs
                              Note: Using 5-year moving average
                              Source: IFs 7.15

14 Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Comparing costs and benefits: the great news

                                                                           This report has already pointed out the                                                                       between 2010 and 2030 are estimated
                                                                           difference in the way that the economic                                                                       to be about USD 180 trillion versus
                                                                           benefits of ICT accumulate over time                                                                          USD 23 trillion of costs (a net benefit
                                                                           (with a compounding effect as an                                                                              of nearly 9 percent of the cumulative
                                                                           investment) compared to the economic                                                                          GDP between 2010 and 2030).
                                                                           costs (as a simple sum of annual values).
                                                                                                                                                                                         These costs are huge and demand the
                                                                           Figure 16 shows how this dynamic
                                                                                                                                                                                         attention of policymakers, but they are
                                                                           plays out to 2030: even in years when
                                                                                                                                                                                         dwarfed by the benefits.
                                                                           annual costs outweigh the benefits,
                                                                           compounding investments pay off                                                                               Again, note how the actual modeled
                                                                           over time.                                                                                                    costs and benefits accumulated over
                                                                                                                                                                                         time compares to the theoretical
                                                                           On a global level, and for this conservative
                                                                                                                                                                                         curve (inset).
                                                                           Base Case, the cumulative benefits

            Figure 16: ICT cyber benefits and costs, global cumulative
            totals, in USD trillions, 2010-2030
                              200
                              180
                              160
          trillion USD 2011

                              140
                              120
                                                                                                                                                                                         GDP

                              100
                              80
                              60                                                                                                                                                               Time                     Future
                              40
                              20
                               0
                                      2010
                                             2011
                                                    2012
                                                           2013
                                                                  2014
                                                                         2015
                                                                                2016
                                                                                       2017
                                                                                              2018
                                                                                                     2019
                                                                                                            2020
                                                                                                                   2021
                                                                                                                          2022
                                                                                                                                 2023
                                                                                                                                        2024
                                                                                                                                               2025
                                                                                                                                                      2026
                                                                                                                                                             2027
                                                                                                                                                                    2028
                                                                                                                                                                           2029
                                                                                                                                                                                  2030

                                    cumulative benefits (compounded)                                                      cumulative costs (additive)
            Source: IFs 7.15

                                                                                                                    Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures 15
Comparing costs and benefits: by economy and region

    There is great variation of those patterns          Figure 17: ICT cyber costs and benefits, annual totals, by World Bank country
    across country income groupings and                 income group and World Bank region, percent of GDP, 2010-2030
    regions (Figure 17).
                                                        High-income economies                                                                                        Upper-middle-income economies
    The cost/benefit inversion point                                    1.4                                                                                                          3

    appears to already have been                                        1.2                                                                                                         2.5

    reached for high-income countries.                                   1
                                                      percent of GDP

                                                                                                                                                                   percent of GDP
                                                                                                                                                                                     2
                                                                        0.8
    In OECD nations, the annual costs of                                0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                    1.5

    being connected may already outweigh                                0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                     1

    the benefits. As noted above, this is                               0.2                                                                                                         0.5

                                                                         0                                                                                                           0
    because of the relative saturation of ICT
                                                                              2010

                                                                                     2012

                                                                                            2014

                                                                                                   2016

                                                                                                           2018

                                                                                                                  2020

                                                                                                                         2022

                                                                                                                                2024

                                                                                                                                       2026

                                                                                                                                              2028

                                                                                                                                                     2029

                                                                                                                                                            2030

                                                                                                                                                                                          2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2022

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2026

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2028

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2029

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2030
    in advanced economies in the face of                                                                  benefits         costs                                                                                      benefits         costs
    steadily rising costs. New advances
    could, of course, freshen new waves of              Lower-middle-income economies                                                                                Low-income economies
    productivity (such scenarios are explored                            3                                                                                                           3

    in the next section).                                               2.5                                                                                                         2.5
                                                      percent of GDP

                                                                                                                                                                   percent of GDP
                                                                         2                                                                                                           2

    The inversion is likely to be approaching                           1.5                                                                                                         1.5

    for upper-middle-income countries by                                 1                                                                                                           1

    roughly 2030, though it seems unlikely                              0.5                                                                                                         0.5

    for low-income countries even by that                                0                                                                                                           0
                                                                              2010

                                                                                     2012

                                                                                            2014

                                                                                                   2016

                                                                                                           2018

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                                                                                                                                       2026

                                                                                                                                              2028

                                                                                                                                                     2029

                                                                                                                                                            2030

                                                                                                                                                                                          2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2022

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2026

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2028

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2029

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2030
    time, as they are still able to add gains
                                                                                                          benefits         costs                                                                                      benefits         costs
    from ICT.
    Among the developing regions shown                  Asia and the Pacific                                                                                         Middle East and North Africa
    in Figure 17, the process of likely                                  4                                                                                                           2

    convergence in annual benefits and costs                            3.5
                                                                         3                                                                                                          1.5

    is apparent in all but sub-Saharan Africa.
                                                                                                                                                                   percent of GDP
                                                      percent of GDP

                                                                        2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                     1
    The cross-over will probably occur in
                                                                         2
                                                                        1.5

    Latin America before 2030 as that region                             1                                                                                                          0.5

                                                                        0.5
    bridges the digital divide and in the Asia                           0                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                                                                                                          2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2022

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2024

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2026

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2028

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2029

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2030
    Pacific region sometime after that.
                                                                              2010

                                                                                     2012

                                                                                            2014

                                                                                                   2016

                                                                                                           2018

                                                                                                                  2020

                                                                                                                         2022

                                                                                                                                2024

                                                                                                                                       2026

                                                                                                                                              2028

                                                                                                                                                     2029

                                                                                                                                                            2030

                                                                                                          benefits         costs                                                                                      benefits         costs

                                                         Latin America                                                                                               Sub-Saharan Africa (without South Africa)
                                                                        2.5                                                                                                         2.5

                                                                         2                                                                                                           2
                                                       percent of GDP

                                                                                                                                                                   percent of GDP

                                                                        1.5                                                                                                         1.5

                                                                         1                                                                                                           1

                                                                        0.5                                                                                                         0.5

                                                                         0                                                                                                           0
                                                                              2010

                                                                                     2012

                                                                                            2014

                                                                                                   2016

                                                                                                           2018

                                                                                                                  2020

                                                                                                                         2022

                                                                                                                                2024

                                                                                                                                       2026

                                                                                                                                              2028

                                                                                                                                                     2029

                                                                                                                                                            2030

                                                                                                                                                                                          2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2022

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2024

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2026

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2028

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2029

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2030

                                                                                                          benefits          costs                                                                                     benefits         costs

                                                         Note: Using 5-year moving average

                                                         Source: IFs 7.15

16 Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Alternate worlds: exploring the future

                      The analysis so far has explored the Base       The first step is to identify the ‘axes of
                      Case, assuming that future trends are           uncertainty’ that are likely to be most
                      relatively consistent with or easily            important. Over the course of this
                      understandable from those in the past.          project, two such uncertainties clearly
                      For example, one of the dominant                stood out.
                      assumptions of the Base Case, borrowed
                                                                      The first major uncertainty is whether the
                      from the ITU’s ICT Development Index, is
                                                                      globe continues to reap great benefits
                      that the ICT wave will have largely played
                                                                      and keep the risks under control or
                      out by 2030 for both high-income and
                                                                      whether hackers, nation-state attackers,
                      upper-middle-income countries, as they
                                                                      and trolls greatly degrade the Internet
                      gain universal access to mobile and
                                                                      and the benefits of being connected. We
                      broadband technologies.
                                                                      call the two distinct futures anchoring
                      But, of course, the future is always sure       this dimension the Cyber Shangri-La and
                      to hold tremendous surprises.                   Clockwork Orange Internet, respectively.
                                                                      In the first scenario, secure Internet
                      One of the most useful tools for peeking
                                                                      connectivity is a global right; in the
                      over the horizon of time is a structured
                                                                      second, it is a luxury good. As such,
                      approach of formulating and analyzing
                                                                      these scenarios alternately represent the
                      ‘alternate worlds,’ differing futures based
                                                                      most benefit and the highest cost.
                      on the outcomes of major uncertainties.
                      One of the most influential reports that        The second uncertainty is whether the
                      explores alternate worlds is the Global         future Internet will be more dominated
                      Trends series from the U.S. National            by governments (with strong borders
                      Intelligence Council (NIC).16 Experts from      and government monitoring) or the
                      both the Atlantic Council and Pardee            private sector (where the technological
                      Center were central to that effort and          elite is constantly able to invent around
                      brought their experiences here to explore       government control). These are the
                      future cyber scenarios. Additional              Leviathan Internet and Independent
                      alternate worlds work has been done             Internet futures, respectively. Whereas
                      by Microsoft and CISCO in their reports,        Cyber Shangri-La is obviously a better
                      Cyberspace 2025 (2014) and The                  scenario than the Clockwork Orange
                      Evolving Internet (2010), respectively.17       Internet, there is a more difficult
                                                                      balance here, which will be explored
                                                                      in later sections.

                                      Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures 17
Alternate worlds: Cyber Shangri-La

                                                      Cyber Shangri-La is the future in which       New technologies boost benefits far, far
                                                      all of Silicon Valley’s dreams come true.     faster than costs accumulate. Defense
                                                      The unfettered development of ICT and         has become easier and cheaper than
                                                      global networking drives innovation and       offense, so that costs remain modest
                                                      prosperity while helping individuals          and stable. For example, perhaps
                                                      reach their full potential, regardless of     autonomous or autonomic defenses are
                                                      their nationality or circumstance. Privacy    widely deployed, moving significant
                                                      remains relatively high. Secure and           attacks out of the range of all but the
                                                      reliable access to the global network         most capable and motivated adversaries.
                                                      is a fundamental human right.                 Defense improving faster than offense
                                                                                                    is a critical enabler for unlocking full
                                                      This scenario is similar to the Peak future
                                                                                                    economic and societal benefits.
                                                      in Microsoft’s Cyberspace 2025 report
                                                      and the Fluid Futures in CISCO’s The          Impact on the economy: ICT is a main
                                                      Evolving Internet.18 All three describe       driver of global innovation across all
                                                      a future situation where technological        economies, with high degrees of
                                                      progress has continued, users have high       globalization as the Internet becomes
                                                      levels of trust in the system, and            increasingly ubiquitous, secure, and
                                                      companies continue to build out the           resilient. ICT benefits among nations
                                                      network and connected devices.                converge, as most netizens and
    Individuals can reach their full potential                                                      companies around the world have
                                                      Dynamics: Costs remain flat or only rise
    in Cyber Shangri-La.                                                                            access to similar kinds of technologies.
                                                      slightly, while benefits rise rapidly or
                                                                                                    Global cooperation on cybersecurity
                                                      even exponentially. These changes occur
                                                                                                    is relatively high, though nations still
                                                      modestly, with steady changes over time.
                                                                                                    have strong disagreements over
                                                      Most if not all of the twelve game-           cross-border content.
                                                      changing technologies, identified by
                                                                                                    Impact on individuals: People have
                                                      McKinsey Global Institute (see Box 2 on
                                                                                                    widespread and well-founded trust in
                                                      page 11), deliver on their full promise,
                                                                                                    the technologies, providers, and
                                                      especially those most dependent on
                                                                                                    behavior of other netizens. Their online
                                                      strong cybersecurity: mobile Internet,
                                                                                                    persona is fluid, sometimes tied to their
                                                      automation of knowledge work, IoT,
                                                                                                    national identify but at other times tied
                                                      cloud technology, advanced robotics,
                                                                                                    to any other association, state or
                                                      and autonomous and near-
                                                                                                    non-state, that they choose. Privacy is
                                                      autonomous vehicles.
                                                                                                    well within each individual’s control.

18 Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Alternate worlds: Clockwork Orange Internet

                                             The worst nightmare of anyone who is           gains. Globalization is mostly broken,
                                             connected, the Clockwork Orange                and companies find it hard to make a
                                             Internet is almost entirely made up of         profit selling IT, except as a luxury good.
                                             ultra-violent ‘bad neighborhoods,’ akin
                                                                                         The negative effects could happen either
                                             to the novella and cult-classic movie
                                                                                         steadily (‘ice’ scenarios), or very quickly
                                             of the same name. Secure and reliable
                                                                                         (‘fire’ scenarios). The ‘ice’ scenarios
                                             access to the global network is no
                                                                                         include steadily increasing costs over
                                             longer a global right but a luxury good.
                                                                                         time, such as the continued worsening
                                             Digital identities and assets huddle
                                                                                         of cybercrime, crises and conflict
                                             behind high walls. Technology still
                                                                                         (including international conflict), and
                                             advances, but without necessarily being
                                                                                         a general breakdown in governance.
                                             networked; high-tech is no longer
                                                                                         The ‘fire’ scenarios include fast-moving
                                             synonymous with information tech.
                                                                                         events, such as a major conflict, global
                                             Dynamics: Cyber offense is no longer        shock, or sudden and unmatched
                                             just better than defense, it is unbeatable. offensive innovation.
                                             Any time new security initiatives and
                                                                                         This leads to high degrees of ICT
                                             projects are launched, there are nations,
                                                                                         inequality, as only large multinationals
                                             hackers, or curious security researchers
                                                                                         and other dedicated firms can afford
                                             who quickly tear them down. Cyber
                                                                                         security. The rich around the world can
Hackers tear down security defenses in the   bullying and other bad behavior is
                                                                                         still use secure ICT, but for most others,
Clockwork Orange Internet.                   rampant. There is little to no trust,
                                                                                         it is simply out of reach or only usable
                                             as people cannot have faith in their
                                                                                         at great risk. Governments, the finance
                                             networked devices or other people
                                                                                         sector, and others have built a secure
                                             online. This lack of trust is both a cause,
                                                                                         minimum essential information
                                             as well as a symptom, of massive cyber
                                                                                         infrastructure, which is as difficult to
                                             sub-prime cascading failures across the
                                                                                         enter as a U.S. federal government
                                             Internet and into connected
                                                                                         building, and only available for the most
                                             infrastructures. ICT usage is so choked
                                                                                         secure purposes. There is also very little
                                             down that even technologies that were
                                                                                         international cooperation, with little trust
                                             common in 2015 (such as online
                                                                                         between nations who attack each other
                                             shopping and social networking) are
                                                                                         (and each other’s products) relentlessly.
                                             reserved only for those rich enough
                                             to pay for proper security.                 Impact on individuals: Online persona
                                                                                         becomes a thing of the past for most
                                             Impact on the economy: Costs rise
                                                                                         people. People have only as much trust
                                             rapidly while benefits only rise slightly.
                                                                                         as their credit cards can buy, while an
                                             Networked ICT becomes a drag to the
                                                                                         online identity is an asset to flaunt in
                                             economy. Disruptions most heavily affect
                                                                                         the best circles. Privacy is no longer a
                                             higher-income economies and the most
                                                                                         primary concern, now that connectivity
                                             ICT-saturated middle economies.
                                                                                         itself is a risk.
                                             Lower-income economies don’t suffer
                                             these costs, but also receive far fewer

                                                            Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures 19
Alternate worlds: Leviathan Internet

                                                      In the Leviathan Internet, there is no       Some nations close off their national
                                                      longer a single global Internet but a        borders to all kinds of information,
                                                      series of national internets dominated by    from unpleasant news to damaging
                                                      sovereign governments (and particularly      cyberattacks. Other nations, including
                                                      their national security apparatuses).        most OECD states, are slightly more
                                                      Information technologies are more            porous. ICT inequality accordingly
                                                      useful to governments to keep track and      increases, with big nations and blocs like
                                                      control over citizens than vice versa.       Brazil, China, the U.S., and the European
                                                                                                   Union having enough scale to succeed.
                                                      Dynamics: Some nations, like Russia
                                                                                                   Smaller nations struggle to build enough
                                                      and China, choke off their national
                                                                                                   sovereign infrastructure. By 2030, this
                                                      borders so that all information – and
                                                                                                   process of speciation is so far along
                                                      attacks – has difficulty penetrating.
                                                                                                   that these separate internets, despite
                                                      They rely on heavy monitoring of their
                                                                                                   their once common ancestor, can no
                                                      networks to keep an eye on their
                                                                                                   longer interconnect.
                                                      citizens and control what information
                                                      they receive, using technologies that        There may be gradients and variants of
                                                      help to stop many attacks. Other             the Leviathan Internet, such as:
                                                      nations, including most in the OECD,
                                                                                                   • ‘Huntington Internet,’ in which different
                                                      have more open national borders and
                                                                                                     cultures have different Internets;
    Some nations monitor their citizens closely in    suffer comparatively more attacks.
    the Leviathan Internet.                                                                        • ‘Iron Curtain Internet,’ in which
                                                      Cybersecurity decreases overall. The
                                                                                                     different Internets exist for Western
                                                      small benefits brought by strong
                                                                                                     nations and more closed societies like
                                                      regulation and national borders are
                                                                                                     China and Russia; and
                                                      more than offset by decreased global
                                                      cooperation and increased cross-border       • ‘Schengen Internet,’ in which
                                                      espionage, sabotage, and conflicts.            different trade blocs have their own
                                                                                                     ’free exchange’ of bits and bytes.
                                                      Impact on the economy: The impact on
                                                      the economy is modest, with continuing       Impact on individuals: People’s online
                                                      growth of GDP and productivity, but well     personas are driven by their country of
                                                      below the dreams of tech visionaries.        residence. Online trust is high for those
                                                      Cross-border restrictions undermine too      that trust their government but low for
                                                      many technologies, and tight regulations     everyone else, and non-existent across
                                                      limit innovation. Protectionism trumps       borders. While there is nearly zero
                                                      globalization, with nations giving           privacy from governments, there are
                                                      preference to their own companies            very tight restrictions on the commercial
                                                      and insisting on ICT localization and        use of similar data.
                                                      sovereignty, shattering the global ICT
                                                      market. There is little trust even between
                                                      friendly nations, as policies are driven
                                                      more by security fears than dreams
                                                      of innovation.

20 Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
Alternate worlds: Independent Internet

                                       In the Independent Internet scenario,          U.S., but are ‘democratized’ to include
                                       governments are unable to regulate and         companies and super-empowered
                                       dominate this new technological space.         individuals. Trust is accordingly modest;
                                       Compared to today (and the assumptions         while it can be high within different
                                       in the Base Case), non-state actors have       corporate walled gardens (for example,
                                       bloomed into the true online powers.           Apple users would tend to trust Apple
                                       As proclaimed in 1996 by John Perry            and other Apple users) or social groups,
                                       Barlow, a noted cyber-libertarian and          it is missing at higher levels. ICT equality
                                       former songwriter for the Grateful             and globalization are also high, as most
                                       Dead: “Governments of the Industrial           netizens and companies all over the
                                       World, [y]ou have no sovereignty where         world have access to similar kinds
                                       we gather... Your legal concepts of            of technologies.
                                       property, expression, identity, movement,
                                                                                  Impact on the economy: Networked
                                       and context do not apply to us. They
                                                                                  ICT is an important driver of innovation,
                                       are all based on matter, and there is no
                                                                                  productivity, and GDP. Income inequality
                                       matter here.”19
                                                                                  is likely to increase. The effects are
                                       Governments still try to pass regulations, relatively broad but somewhat favor
                                       but are quickly left behind by the true    higher-income economies. There are
                                       cyber powers: companies, non-state         high degrees of globalization as national
Cyber-experts have more power in the   groups, individuals, and regions (not      borders are unable to fence out foreign
Independent Internet.                  least Silicon Valley). The technological   companies, technologies, or information.
                                       elite defy the state and continue to       However, there may be walled gardens,
                                       invent new ways to outfox regulations,     as people get locked into one alliance of
                                       laws, and other constraints of the state, technologies versus another (such as
                                       such as refusing requests for government Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Google, or
                                       backdoors. This private-sector domination Baidu) and can change their alliance only
                                       keeps benefits coming steadily but         with great difficulty. These companies
                                       generates insufficient breakthroughs       may develop into a relatively stable
                                       on defense.                                arrangement (like a Gang of Four or
                                                                                  Big Five) or they may change over time.
                                       Dynamics: Offense still maintains the
                                       advantage. ICT companies continue          Impact on individuals: People do
                                       inventing new defenses, but without        not tend to see their online personas
                                       effective policing and control, criminal   as ‘American’ or ‘Brazilian’ but as a
                                       groups continue to thrive. Large           member of a particular technology
                                       companies increasingly apportion more      alliances. Once you are an ‘Apple’ or
                                       of their ‘security’ budget for offensive   ‘Google’ person, that identity remains
                                       means to disrupt incoming attacks or       relatively stable. Online trust is somewhat
                                       seize back their stolen intellectual       higher than in the Leviathan Internet
                                       property; there is a concomitant rise      because of widespread encryption and
                                       of cyber-Blackwaters (private defense      other measures. Individuals tend to have
                                       companies) to help companies actively      very high privacy vis-a-vis governments,
                                       disrupt their tormentors.                  but have opted-in to relatively intrusive
                                                                                  monitoring by the companies with
                                       Likewise, high-end attacks and espionage
                                                                                  whom they choose to do business.
                                       are not just the purview of China or the

                                                      Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures 21
Costs and benefits in alternate worlds

                                                      In the Base Case presented in the first                                                                     The net annual economic benefits in the
                                                      half of this report, there was already                                                                      Cyber Shangri-La scenario over the Base
                                                      great uncertainty underlying the data                                                                       Case might look small, but in fact would
                                                      and forecasting. These uncertainties are                                                                    represent a reversal of the current trend
                                                      therefore magnified when looking at                                                                         toward an overall net negative effect.
                                                      alternate future cyber worlds. But the                                                                      And in the Leviathan future, governments
                                                      trend is the most important factor to                                                                       looking to separate their ICT innovations
                                                      take into account, and the shape of the                                                                     and connections from those of other
                                                      curves tells a compelling story.                                                                            countries should be cautious, as strong
                                                                                                                                                                  Internet borders could shift net annual
                                                      In the Clockwork Orange Internet
                                                                                                                                                                  costs above benefits by a full 2 percent
                                                      scenario, the attackers don’t just have
                                                                                                                                                                  of GDP by 2030. The net loss in the
                                                      the advantage over defenders; true
                                                                                                                                                                  Independent Internet is far smaller, but
                                                      supremacy induces a net cost drag of
                                                                                                                                                                  still negative, at a fraction of one percent.
                                                      nearly 7 percent of global GDP by 2023.
                                                      The reason for the plateau in those net
                                                      costs is the assumption that there is a
                                                      ‘saturation of catastrophe,’ where things
                                                      cannot get worse.

                                                      Figure 18: ICT cyber net benefits or costs, global annual total,
                                                      as a percentage of GDP, by scenario, 2010-2030
                                                               2

                                                               0

                                                               -2
                                                     percent

                                                               -4

                                                               -6

                                                               -8
                                                                    2010
                                                                           2011
                                                                                  2012
                                                                                         2013
                                                                                                2014
                                                                                                       2015
                                                                                                              2016
                                                                                                                     2017
                                                                                                                            2018
                                                                                                                                   2019
                                                                                                                                          2020
                                                                                                                                                 2021
                                                                                                                                                        2022
                                                                                                                                                               2023
                                                                                                                                                                      2024
                                                                                                                                                                             2025
                                                                                                                                                                                    2026
                                                                                                                                                                                           2027
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2028
                                                                                                                                                                                                         2029
                                                                                                                                                                                                                2030

                                                                      Base Case                        Clockwork Orange     Independent Internet
                                                                                                         Leviathan    Shangri-La
                                                      Source: IFs 7.15

22 Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures
The implications of these differences                                                                                 The worst case of a Clockwork Orange
                                      among alternate worlds become more                                                                                    Internet might cost the world nearly
                                      obvious and pronounced when costs                                                                                     USD 90 trillion of potential net economic
The wide range of forecasts           and benefits are compared on a                                                                                        benefit across the period to 2030, when
illustrates the very considerable     cumulative basis over time, rather than                                                                               compared to the Base Case, and USD
uncertainty we face.”                 just annually.                                                                                                        120 trillion relative to the best case of
                                                                                                                                                            Cyber Shangri-La.
                                      The compounding investment and
                                      productivity impacts from ICT in Cyber                                                                                The Independent Internet is very close
                                      Shangri-La mean that even the                                                                                         to the Base Case, but the Leviathan
                                      scenario’s very modest net annual                                                                                     Internet of strong national borders drops
                                      benefits result in a cumulative net                                                                                   cumulative ICT net benefit by USD 20
                                      contribution that is perhaps USD 190                                                                                  trillion relative to the Base Case. Overall,
                                      trillion, USD 30 trillion higher than the                                                                             the wide range of forecasts across these
                                      Base Case by 2030. For context, the                                                                                   scenarios illustrates the very considerable
                                      total cumulative GDP of the Base Case                                                                                 uncertainty we face concerning both
                                      between 2010 and 2030 is forecast to                                                                                  benefits and costs in cyberspace.
                                      be USD 2,000 trillion, so that the net
                                      benefit of ICT in Cyber Shangri-La
                                      begins to approach 10 percent of that
                                      long-term GDP.

                                      Figure 19: ICT cyber net benefits or costs, global cumulative
                                      total, in USD trillions, by scenario, 2010-2030
                                                        200

                                                        150
                                    trillion USD 2011

                                                        100

                                                        50

                                                         0
                                                              2010
                                                                     2011
                                                                            2012
                                                                                   2013
                                                                                          2014
                                                                                                 2015
                                                                                                        2016
                                                                                                               2017
                                                                                                                      2018
                                                                                                                             2019
                                                                                                                                    2020
                                                                                                                                           2021
                                                                                                                                                  2022
                                                                                                                                                         2023
                                                                                                                                                                2024
                                                                                                                                                                       2025
                                                                                                                                                                              2026
                                                                                                                                                                                     2027
                                                                                                                                                                                            2028
                                                                                                                                                                                                   2029
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2030

                                                                Base Case                        Clockwork Orange     Independent Internet
                                                                                                   Leviathan    Shangri-La
                                      Source: IFs 7.15

                                                                                   Overcome by cyber risks? | Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures 23
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