Searching for new drivers - Global Asset Allocation Strategy April 2019 - Nordea
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Searching for new drivers Global Asset Allocation Strategy April 2019 Investments │ Wealth Management
April 2019
KEEP EQUITIES NEUTRAL
• The equity rally has tapered off in March, but global equities
have already delivered more than a yearly return YTD.
• At the same time downside risks for global growth has
increased, and it is too early to call a stabilization in the
deterioration in the earnings outlook.
• We still believe we will not see a recession this year, and that
decent growth together with relative valuation support equities.
On the other hand, trade war risks, a weak industrial cycle and
Brexit clearly creates a cloudy outlook. We keep our neutral
Searching for new allocation while markets are searching for new drivers.
EQUITY STRATEGY: Lift Europe
• We recommend to lift Europe to an overweight position. We think
investors are too pessimistic as we expect fundamentals to
drivers stabilize, and the region is fairly priced.
• Japan is uninspiring on all counts, especially earnings, and we
lower Japan to underweight.
• Within equity sectors we move Industrials to underweight on the
back of weakness in the cycle, and lift Consumer Staples to
neutral. Hence we are moving to a more defensive stance.
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Keep neutral
• Government yields decreased considerably in March. We
recommend neutral allocation between the fixed income
segments.
• Overall, we still expect modest returns from bonds in 2019, as
spread and yield levels are low in a historic context.
This material was prepared by Investments |
Market performance & recommendations
ASSET ALLOCATION - N + Comments
Equity markets the big performer YTD, but taking a bit more cautious turn in March Equities
Fixed Income
EQUITY REGIONS - N +
North America
Europe
Japan
Emerging Markets
Denmark
Finland
Norway
Sweden
EQUITY SECTORS - N +
Industrials
Cons Discretionary
Cons Staples
Health Care
Financials
IT
Comm. Services
Utilities
Energy
Materials
Real Estate
BOND SEGMENTS - N +
Government
Investment Grade
High Yield
Emerging Markets
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Current allocation Previous allocation
This material was prepared by Investments |
Risks to the growth outlook are increasing
Trade and manufacturing sending troubling signals But the broad outlook remains reasonably solid
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• The risks to the global economic outlook have increased. Although signs of stabilisation have emerged, the macro backdrop remains a key risk.
• Europe should sooner or later turn around by virtue of the current low activity in the manufacturing sector and an expected turnaround in autos.
• Troublingly, however, global trade volumes have declined as uncertainty over both the US-China situation and Brexit has lingered.
This material was prepared by Investments |Too early to call a stabilisation in earnings
On the face of it, it looks like the estimates for 2019 has levelled off And the revisions seems to recover as well
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• While the bad start for earnings seems to have stabilized, we remain healthy sceptics. Down revisions of this size don’t happen without a reason.
• Q1 is already discounted to be a bad quarter, no news there, but the big question is Q2/Q3 given the string of less than good economic data YTD.
• This years gain will need support from the earnings side to be sustainable, and at the moment, we’re still waiting for that support.Fed’s dovish pivot: The end (market) or a pause (economists)?
Recently, markets have guided Fed’s expected rate path lower The end of Q/T might imply shrinking excess reserves
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• The Fed catches up with markets and does not expect further rate hikes in 2019. Fixed income markets go further though, pricing in a full cut for 2020.
• Balance sheet contraction (Q/T) will end in Sept. as expected, but the balance sheet will be held constant afterwards, implying falling excess reserves.
• Markets’ assessment is thus hardly “goldilocks”: an end of the Fed hiking cycle is rarely positive for risk assets – shrinking excess reserves neither.Brexit: no, no and no, but no hard Brexit please
Brexit or not? Here is where the reaction will most probably come Brexit has so far not affected UK equities more than European ones
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• The indecision of the UK establishment is monumental. Theresa May’s deal has twice been voted down and presently, it looks dead in the water.
• At the same time, parliament has wrested control from the government to break the gridlock but so far hasn’t been able to reach any conclusion.
• The only consensus seems that no one wants a hard Brexit. However, it doesn’t help much when no other option seems to prevail. Wait and see applies.Re-rating continues, and yields keep falling
Higher, but not high, valuation in the wake of the rally Higher “valuation” also in the bond space; yields have cratered
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• After the massive de-rating in 2018, valuation has bounced back on the rally and falling earnings estimates. In absolute terms, valuation has worsened.
• While not high, equity valuation is hardly attractive with the earnings uncertainty. How much re-rating can markets withstand given the earnings outlook?
• On the bond side, lower yields also means less absolute value. In relative terms however, there has been less of a change between equities and bonds.
This material was prepared by Investments |Relapse in sentiment during the month, back at stretched levels
The lows in volatility get higher, more to come? Being bullish is in vouge again
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Markets took a step back in the middle of the month, as did sentiment. However, the relapse was short and we’re back at early-March levels.
• We still think the optimism is partly misplaced; real money is not yet buying into rally and the bond market is clearly signaling anything but bullishness.
• Our base case still applies: during the rally all news (also bad) has been good news; should this change, sentiment is a risk at current levels.
This material was prepared by Investments |A tale of two markets: Something has to give
Falling rates decoupled from rising equities Rate cuts and yield curve inversion reflect rising recession risks
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Equities are on track for the strongest 1st quarter start since 1998, closing in on last year’s all-time highs in various indices.
• But the end of the Fed cycle is currently priced and the 3M-10Y US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007, implying end-cycle recession risks.
• Who’s right – equities (late cycle) or bonds (end-cycle)? If history is any guide, equity investors should watch out. Medium term, it pays to be prudent.Global yields: End-cycle fears causes race to the bottom
Core bonds: Hunt for capital preservation instead of hunt for yield Signs of caution: Lower rated bonds lagging behind the recent rally
0.9 11000000
0.8
0.7 10000000
0.6 9000000
USD, million
0.5
0.4 8000000
%
0.3
0.2 7000000
0.1 6000000
0
26/12/2016
26/02/2017
26/06/2017
26/10/2017
26/02/2018
26/04/2018
26/04/2017
26/08/2017
26/12/2017
26/06/2018
26/08/2018
26/10/2018
26/12/2018
26/02/2019
-0.1 5000000
Amount of negative yielding bonds, globally
10Y German government bond yield
Source: Bloomberg/ Macrobond / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• As expected, the end of Fed Q/T has not really been an issue for duration: amount of negative-yielding bonds reached highest level since 2017 in March.
• Driver: Dovish central banks caused by rising end-cycle fears. Case in point, credit spreads were roughly sideways in March, reflecting cautious investors.
• Squaring richness in government bonds with elevated macro risks leads us to stay neutral government bonds, with a continued bias towards US duration.Lift Europe to overweight and downgrade Japan to underweight
Good returns from all regions this year Earnings showing signs of stabilisation
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• We recommend upgrading Europe to an overweight as investors have given up on the region while we expect fundamentals to start bottoming out.
• Japan, for its part, is uninspiring on all counts aside from valuation which is more attractive in Europe. Notably, recent money flows do not reflect this.
• The biggest risk to this view is protracted weakness in European manufacturing while the trade war and Brexit could impact both regions to some extent.
This material was prepared by Investments |Go slightly defensive in the sector strategy
The industrial cycle under pressure Raise Consumer Staples and lower Industrials
Sector Recommendation Relative weight
Industrials Underweight -2%
Consumer Discretionary Neutral -
Consumer Staples Neutral -
Health Care Overweight +2%
Financials Neutral -
IT Neutral -
Communication Services Neutral -
Utilities Neutral -
Energy Neutral -
Materials Neutral -
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Real Estate Neutral -
• We take a slightly more defensive stance in the sector strategy by lowering industrials to underweight and raising Consumer Staples to neutral weight.
• Despite the fact that yields have come down, there is still a case for Consumer Staples as the fundamentals looks better relative to other sectors.
• Industrials are lowered as a play on a further short term risk of weakness in the industrial cycle with also investment activity stagnating lately.
This material was prepared by Investments |April 2019
OVERWEIGHT EUROPE, UNDERWEIGHT JAPAN
• We recommend upgrading Europe to an overweight as investors have
given up on the region while we expect fundamentals to start picking up.
• Japan, for its part, is uninspiring on all counts aside from valuation which is
more attractive in Europe. Notably, recent money flows do not reflect this.
• The biggest risk to this view is protracted weakness in European
manufacturing while the trade war and Brexit will impact both regions to an
extent.
The long rally has been particularly strong in North America
EQUITIES
NEUTRAL
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
This material was prepared by Investments |Equity regions │ Returns (in SEK)
TAA SAA EXCESS
Total return 115% 97,8% 17,2%
Ann. Return 8,0% 7,1% 0,9%
This material was prepared by Investments |Equity regions │ April 2019
USA Neutral Europe Overweight Emerging Markets Neutral Japan Underweight
Recommended weight 40% Recommended weight 30% Recommended weight 15% Recommended weight 0%
Neutral weight 40% Neutral weight 25% Neutral weight 15% Neutral weight 5%
- Earnings outlook is deteriorating rapidly - Too much political noise and economic - Earnings outlook is weakening together - Earnings outlook worse than elsewhere,
weakness already priced in, and valuation with the rest of the world and support from the economy is elusive
- Valuation is the least attractive among
is the most attractive among regions
equity regions - Slower economic and trade growth are - Valuation is attractive and monetary policy
- Monetary conditions remain supportive concerning, but supporting policies from supportive
- Extended dollar positioning is the key
China will help
near-term risk - Economic and earnings outlook likely to - The link between yen and equity markets
start picking up soon - Valuation no longer a clear support means more muted return prospects
Sweden Neutral Asia excl. Japan
Recommended weight 15% Recommended weight 10%
Neutral weight 15%
Eastern Europe
- Industrial sector facing some headwinds
Recommended weight 2%
from the slump outside the US
- Earnings still healthy, no signs (yet) of
trade-related issues Latin America
- Economy on a slowing path but level still Recommended weight 3%
decent. Higher rates would be a negative
This material was prepared by Investments |USA │ Clouds gathering around the outlook
US earnings outlook deteriorating rapidly… …and valuation is extended in comparison
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Last year’s support from strong earnings and economic growth is fading rapidly. A particular concern is the deterioration in the heavyweight sector, IT.
• Valuation remains stretched compared to peers, putting added pressure on the US in a wobbly market.
• Trade war will weigh on all equity regions, but the US is likely to lose the least if things deteriorate. Put together, we prefer a neutral weight.
This material was prepared by Investments |Europe │ Raise to overweight – a contrarian buy on over-pessimism
Positioning still seems stretched but less that earlier Surprises are looking less negative compared to other regions
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• We recommend raising Europe to overweight based on over-pessimistic analysts and increasing risk-appetite (less political risk) in our models.
• Drivers: Prospects of a stabilization in leading indicators (even some seems to undershoot), stable earnings estimates will tempt investors.
• It goes without saying that we do not expect a “no-deal” Brexit which would meaningfully affect investors sentiment towards European assets.
This material was prepared by Investments |Emerging Markets │ Weaker Chinese cycle will weigh on EM earnings
Chinese slowdown add pressure on already weakening EM exports Brazilian equities are pricing in too much economic improvement
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• EM earnings are highly correlated with EM exports. Both should come under increased pressure with the weakening Chinese import cycle.
• US-China trade deal remains an upside risk, but any sentiment boost should be short-lived. The global trade slowdown is not caused by the trade conflict.
• Driven by Bolsonaro optimism, Brazilian equities have made a classic overshoot relative to economic fundamentals. Don’t overstay your welcome.
This material was prepared by Investments |Finland │ Good value and earnings mean great prospects
Finnish earnings set to outpace peers… …and the usual valuation premium is gone
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• We keep the overweight in Finnish equities on the back of a good earnings outlook, great dividends and attractive relative valuations.
• Finnish stocks got more than their share in the Q4 sell-off, priming them for a rebound. However, some of this has already taken place.
• Although there is a risk that analysts have not fully appreciated the impact of the global slowdown, this risk is no more pronounced than in Europe.
This material was prepared by Investments |Denmark│ Tactical outlook balanced, but more positive given the sector composition
A stronger dollar tends to support Danish companies earnings Despite fluctuations the relationship holds up well
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Danish stocks have continued to catch up during March with defensives now again leading and earnings revisions favor DK stocks.
• Latest earnings season prospects seems marginally better than global earnings picture for DK stocks, but the overweight in industrials is a headwind.
• Valuation remains a headwind but given shifts in FX and the heavy weight of health care in the index is positive. We remain neutral with a positive tilt.
This material was prepared by Investments |Norway │ Solid growth, but mixed outlook for oil
Violent turn in oil prices, outlook is mixed Norwegian equites are getting more expensive
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Oil prices has been a tailwind so far this year, but the structural outlook is mixed, which means the support could easily turn again.
• The outlook for the Norwegian economy is solid and will support strong expected earnings growth, however a lot is already priced.
• We don’t expect support from weaker NOK, also due to the more hawkish central bank. In sum, a balanced outlook for Oslo Børs, we remain neutral.
This material was prepared by Investments |Sweden │Industrial cycle still warrants some caution
Industrials-heavy Sweden is dependent on the global momentum Swedish equities lagging behind global
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• As previously flagged for, the EZ manufacturing slump and weaker Chinese data has weighed on the industrial cycle.
• The recent bounce in Swedish industrials appears premature given the worsening Chinese industrial cycle, stay neutral.
• The Swedish economy is doing well, but the housing sector remains a risk, and could continue to weigh on the large banking sector.Japan │ Better value is to be had elsewhere, lower to underweight
Clear underperformance in Japan, which we believe will continue Earnings are lagging the rest of the world
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• We lower Japan to underweight on weaker relative potential. Simply put, Japan continues to be an uninspiring story from an investment perspective.
• The earnings outlook is dismal and estimates points towards negative earnings growth this year. Margins are also well below the other regions.
• Valuation is low but not a positive given the earnings picture, and foreign investors are leaving Japan. We think the money is better deployed elsewhere.Sectors│ Returns (in SEK)
EXCESSIndustrials│ Industrial cycle remains under pressure
Trade hopes and risk-on sentiment buoy industrials… …but global manufacturing woes are not over
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• The risk-on sentiment, spurred by a dovish Fed and hopes of a trade deal have, has triggered a comeback for industrials.
• Our view is that the trade conflict has played a very limited role in the global slowdown, which is why we choose to fade the partly trade driven rally.
• As evident from recent Eurozone PMIs, global manufacturing woes are not over. Signs of acceleration in China also remain limited. UW industrials.Consumer Discretionary │ Idiosyncratic factors distorts the tactical call
Consumer Discretionary has done ok in 2018 US consumer might experience some downside
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Consumer Discretionary is torn between the waning brick-and-mortar business and the booming online retail business, making the outlook hard to assess.
• The sector usually performs well in an early-cycle environment which was distorted by the US tax-reform in 2018 – but effects are waning.
• As the cycle matures the labour-intensive part of the sector will struggle while online retailers (e.g. Amazon) might perform.Consumer Staples │ Short term upside from rates
Lower rates favors Consumer Staples Earnings growth for 2019 are close to the 2018 figures
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• The pressure from rates on bond proxies has eased, and the lower rates favors Consumer Staples, and fundamentals look more attractive.
• Structural long term challenges remain in the sector, where especially E-commerce is changing the landscape.
• Earnings have held up well compared the rest of the sectors. Margin pressure from freights costs have abated, although labor cost pressure persist.Healthcare │ A good late cycle play
Healthcare typically performs well in late cycles High drug prices has lead to pollical pressure
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Major M&A activity in the sector as a series of deals involving big pharma acquiring cheap biotech companies sparked off lately over the Christmas.
• Renewed focus from Trump on curbing prices, but so far the pressure is on the middlemen instead of big pharma.
• Fundamentals are still strong and Healthcare is typically a good late cycle sector.Financials │ Cheap, but growth limits the upside
Flat US curve compress interest rate margins Weak ec. momentum and loan growth weights on European financials
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Financials has underperformed the market YTD but are still very cheap versus history. The banking sector is split between US and EU banks.
• European banks struggle with several things, among this weaker macro momentum and political uncertainty.
• European risks and regulation are a headwind, while US deregulation provides a tailwind. Put together, we recommend neutral.IT │ Earnings outlook is weak
Companies expect strong growth in investments Extremely strong earnings growth
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• IT has reclaimed lost ground in the recent rally, despite semi-cycle weakness and previous China cycle warnings from behemoths Apple and Samsung.
• The cyclical outlook has deteriorated, though both consumption, capex and the structural outlook (digitalization) supports the sector.
• Protectionism and trade war are obvious risks, and the risk/reward is no longer there for an overweight. We stick to a neutral weight.Communications Services│ Estimated earnings are holding up
Stocks moved from IT & Consumer Discretionary into Telecom Biggest names in the new sector
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Earnings estimates has fared much better for the communication sector than for the rest of the cyclicals, and that is a support.
• The new sector includes companies that facilitate “communication & offer related” content and information through media.
• Housing a majority of the FAANGs and their Chinese counterparts, the concentration of higher valued names poses a risk in a shakier environment.Utilities │Stable earnings outlook
Less pressure from higher yields Better earnings outlook for Utilities
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• There is signs of overcapacity in the USA, which is not good for pricing power in the sector. We are also running at low levels of capacity utilization.
• Earnings revisions have turned positive, and the growth outlook for next year is improving.
• Utilities is highly levered and pay high dividends. If rates go higher it could hurt Utilities through higher costs, but this pressure has recently dropped.Energy │ Risks are high
The falling oil price is taking its toll on earnings Booming US shale production
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Positive output surprise, US waivers for Iranian oil importers and technical headwind led to a bear market in oil, but has rebounded 30% since the bottom.
• Structurally, the outlook is mixed due to the battle between the rise in shale production vs. underinvestment in traditional oil (depletion of traditional wells).
• Earnings estimates has been slashed, despite the recent uptick in oil prices, the risk is high and we stick to a neutral weight on the sector.Materials │ Chinese cycle risk still weighs
The recent jump in industrial metals has lent support Earnings tend to outperform towards the end of the cycle
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Materials tend to perform well towards the end of the cycle, but as the dominant player within most metals markets, China is a risk for the outlook.
• Despite recent rebound, China-worries continues to haunt the sector. Going forward, Chinese easing could provide a boost, but we wait for the evidence.
• Valuation is relatively attractive, but estimated earnings are being slashed, so we do not think valuation will be in the driver’s seat for now.Real Estate │Strong fundamentals but limited upside from yield
Tight relationship with rates Tight labour markets supports earnings in the sector
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• The real estate sector has experienced strong performance since end of 2018 in the backdrop of the correction, risk off moves and importantly lower rates.
• Where as strong economic momentum in the US and tight labour makets support the sector the strong relationship with rates are expected to hold.
• Since we don’t see significant evidence for significant lower rates from here then the combination of strong fundamentals warrants a neutral position.April 2019
Fed shelves rate hikes for 2019
• Government yields decreased considerably in March. We
recommend neutral allocation between the fixed income
segments.
• Moderating global growth has made central banks to turn towards
more cautious monetary policy, which has pushed yields lower.
German 10-year yield touches negative again
FIXED INCOME
NEUTRAL
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
This material was prepared by Investments |Fixed income markets │ April 2019
Corporate bonds Neutral High-yield bonds Neutral Emerging market bonds Neutral Government bonds Neutral
- Decent economic growth and solid - High-yield bonds credit metrics are still - A dovish turn from the Fed and better FX - Government bonds have shown good
balance sheets still support corporate supported by good level of corporate performance has been supportive for EM returns this year, as more dovish central
bonds and issuer credit metrics. earnings and low financing costs. Default bonds this year. banks have made the environment more
rates are expected to higher later this duration friendly.
- Government yields have decreased and - However, with deteriorating global growth
year, but the level is still low.
central banks have shifted towards easier, momentum, it is challenging for EM bonds - However, return prospect going forward is
which means less headwind for corporate - Moderating growth and tighter financial to outperform. modest due to already very low yield.
bonds. We favour US bonds over conditions could cause challenges for
- We estimate risks regarding EM bonds as - Government bonds provide diversification
European ones. high-yield a bit longer term. Currently,
balanced, and we keep a neutral weight. and stability to the overall portfolio
however, moderate central banks provide
- Returns from corporate bonds will remain
support also for high-yield bonds.
low, but they offer stability to the portfolio.
Cash Neutral
- Negative euribor rates mean that return is
still basically zero for cash
- Cash provides liquidity to the overall
portfolio and it also has an opportunistic
role if attractive investment opportunities
open up in the markets
This material was prepared by Investments |EUR IG │ Continued low yields
Lower yields as government yields dive Lower yields has helped performance greatly in 2019
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Slowing economic growth leaves limited upside pressure in government yields. Combined with healthy corporate balance sheets this limits investment risk.
• After widening considerably last year, corporate bond credit spreads have recovered this year due to a more dovish central banks.
• Return prospect from investment grade credits will remain low, as spreads are tight in a historic context. Corporate bonds offer stability for the portfolio.
This material was prepared by Investments |US IG │Environment is more duration friendly
Fed turning more dovish has increased appetite for duration Currency-hedge eats most of the yield in US IG
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• Corporate credit fundamentals are still decent in the US. Economic growth is decelerating, but still relatively strong.
• Major central banks indicating a pause in monetary tightening supports IG performance prospects in general, although we expect returns to be low.
• We favour US investment grade credits over Eurozone, as the longer US duration appears attractive compared to European.
This material was prepared by Investments |High-Yield │ Credit fundamentals still adequate
Yield and spread have declined with a help of central banks Forecasts point towards higher, but still modest default rates
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• High-yield credit spreads have tightened rapidly this year, after experiencing a spike in credit spreads in December due to tightening of financial conditions.
• Moderating global growth and tighter financial conditions weigh on high-yield outlook in the longer time horizon.
• High-yield issuer credit metrics are still adequate. Default estimates rose in February, but still point towards below historic ratios.
This material was prepared by Investments |EM bonds │Positive momentum, but challenging environment
Valuation not as compelling anymore Growth environment is challenging for EM bonds
Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea
• A dovish turn from the Fed and better FX performance has supported EM bonds further this year, after showing resilience through end of last year.
• But, global growth indicators are decelerating, positioning is getting more stretched, and valuation is not as compelling anymore.
• Easier financial conditions are supportive, but the growth environment is challenging for EM bonds to outperform. Keep neutral weight.
This material was prepared by Investments |Nordea Global Asset Allocation Strategy Contributors
Global Investment Strategy Strategists Assistants
Committee (GISC) Andreas Østerheden Victor Karlshoj Julegaard
Senior Strategist Assistant/Student
Andreas.osterheden@nordea.com Victor.julegaard@nordea.com
Michael Livijn Denmark Denmark
Chief Investment Strategist
michael.livijn@nordea.com Sebastian Källman Mick Biehl
Sweden Strategist Assistant/Student
sebastian.kallman@nordea.com Mick.Biehl@nordea.com
Antti Saari Sweden Denmark
Chief Investment Strategist
antti.saari@nordea.com Ville Korhonen Amelia Marie Asp
Finland Fixed Income Strategist Assistant/Student
ville.p.korhonen@nordea.com Amelia.Marie.Asp@nordea.com
Witold Bahrke Finland Denmark
Chief Investment Strategist
witold.bahrke@nordea.com Espen R. Werenskjold Frederik Saul
Denmark Senior Strategist Assistant/Student
espen.werenskjold@nordea.com Frederik.Saul@nordea.com
Sigrid Wilter Slørstad Norway Denmark
Chief Investment Strategist (acting)
sigrid.wilter.slorstad@nordea.com
Norway
This material was prepared by Investments |DISCLAIMER
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