Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles - From Technologies to Markets - Yole Développement
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From Technologies to Markets
Sensors and Data
Management for
Autonomous
Vehicles
Report
October © 2015
SENSORS AND DATA MANAGEMENT FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
Table of Contents
• Table of content, scope 2 • Technology roadmap 147
• Introduction, definitions & methodology 6 • Supply chain 153
• Executive summary 13 • Data management and processing 164
• History and evolution of the transportation industry 37 • Security and regulation 170
• Driving assistance toward autonomous driving 54 • Conclusion & perspectives 177
• Market forecasts 77 • Yole’s Presentation 179
• Sensors for autonomous driving 89
• Ultrasonic 93
• Radar (SRR/LRR) 97
• Camera 105
• LIDAR 121
• FIR/NIR 127
• Dead reckoning 143
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 2
WHO SHOULD BE INTERESTED IN THIS REPORT?
Integrators Material supplier, manufacturing service companies
Understand the system level technology trends and Spot new business opportunities and prospects
requirements for each application Understand the level of activity of the business
Evaluate market potential for your components Understand what are the applications that will drive the
depending on performance and technology volumes
Understand the differentiated value of your products and
technologies R&D centers
Identify new business opportunities and partners Evaluate market potential of future technologies and
products for new applicative markets
Monitor and benchmark your competitor’s advancements
Identify the best candidates for technology transfer
OEM, integrators
Evaluate the market potential of your product portfolio
Financial & strategic investors
Define diversification strategies on new applications Understand the structure and value chain of the
automotive industry
Find the best technologies to integrate and the best
suppliers depending on your target markets Get the list of main key players and emerging start-ups of
this industry worldwide
Identify new business opportunities and partners
Have an exhaustive analysis of the competition on the
wearable industry
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 3
INTRODUCTION
Modules for autonomous driving are sensor-based solutions
A majority of the automotive industry players are currently developing sensor-based solutions to increase
vehicle safety in speed zones where driver error is most common: at lower speeds, when the driver is stuck
in traffic, and at higher speeds, when the driver is cruising on a long stretch of highway. These systems,
known as Advanced Driver Assist Systems (ADAS), use a combination of advanced sensors, such as stereo
cameras and long- and short-range RADAR, combined with actuators, control units, and integrating software,
to enable cars to monitor and respond to their surroundings. Some ADAS solutions, such as lane-keeping
From ADAS and warning systems, adaptive cruise control, back-up alerts, and parking assistance, are available right now
toward and many others are coming in a near future for advanced autonomous driving capabilities.
autonomous
driving
capabilities In the following report, we will present the different sensors involved in such
autonomous systems. The roadmaps and forecasts that are showed
represent the diffusion of those different sensors, as an option or not,
that we will find in the middle-end segment cars.
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 84
METHODOLOGIES & DEFINITIONS
Market forecast model is based on the following elementary structured blocks:
Yole’s analysis
framework
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 5
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES : THE DISRUPTION CASE
Two distinctive path for autonomous vehicles
Technology x Market Penetration
Disruption ?
Improvement
of cars as we
know
2020-2022 Industrialization Electric car
matures
should see the phase
first
implementations Below expectation
“cars” fulfilling new
plane of
consumption needs
Yole Développement
Electronics New use case © September 2015
Invades cars
1900 80 years 1980 32 years 2012 10 years 2022 6 years 2028 12 years 2040
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 6
2014 AUTOMOTIVE LANDSCAPE – MAJOR PLAYER’S REVENUES
~$2,200B
Market value
88M units
2014 Vehicles sold
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 7
GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Moore and beyond : from information, to interaction and transformation
Technology x Moore More than Moore Beyond Moore
Market
Development
Processing Sensing Actuating
Information age Interaction age Transformation age
Mems & Sensors
enable key Telekinesis
functionalities…
Robotic
which are the servants
current Autonomous
battleground of vehicles
the industry Drones Space travel
Smart
Quantified homes
self
Smartphones
Personal computers Laptop Tablets Yole Développement © August2015
1980 2010 2030 2040
Acceleration
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 8
EQUIPMENT MAKERS AND ELECTRONIC PLAYERS – 2014 REVENUE
Equipment makers, but mostly electronic players are now big enough to become partners and technology providers
instead of subcontractors for traditional carmakers.
$36B
$18B $59B
$17B
$66B
$41B
$46B
$200B
$200B
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 9
VEHICLE SLOWLY REPLACES THE DRIVER
1900 1980 1980 2012 2012 2022
It should
take almost
150 years
to replace the +2100 2045 2045 2028 2028 2022
driver in high-
end automotive
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 10THE DEATH OF DRIVING
Level 5
5%
5% of all
vehicles sold
by 2050
should be
level 5 ready!
By 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous capabilities
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 11SENSOR MODULES VALUE FOR AUTONOMOUS CARS
in $M – From 2014 to 2030
More than
$2.5B in 2015
towards
$36B by 2030
…
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 122015 SENSOR TRENDS FOR AUTONOMOUS CARS
Ultrasonic, cameras for surround sensors and
long range radars share all the value of sensors
for autonomous features in each vehicle sold.
Ultrasonic sensors represents 83% of the
sensor volume (--Munits) but only 47% of the
Sensor module market value ($--M).
for autonomous
driving is a
$2.6B market in Cameras for surround worth $--M, for a
2015 volume of --Munits.
Long range radar worth $--M for a volume of
--Munits
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 132030 SENSOR TRENDS FOR AUTONOMOUS CARS
By 2030, the sensor landscape will
present lot of changes.
Ultrasonic, camera for surround and
short and long range radars represent
respectively (--%), (--%), (--%) of the
market in term of volume. A total of
more than --Munits of sensors should
Sensor
module be sold.
market should
be worth than
$36B by 2030 Camera for surround will be the most
valuable sensor market by 2030, with a
market value of $--B.
Radar sensors should be worth more
than $--B, with --Munits.
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 143 BASIC STEPS OF DRIVING ASSISTANCE
Basic architecture
Current generation of sensors and sensor fusion
Single sensor, dual function
Basic steps of
driving
assistance:
Acquiring, Future generation of sensors and sensor fusion
processing, Multiple sensors, multiple function (Technologies
actuating redundancy)
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 15BLOCKS OF THE
Sensors: A majority of technologies are ready
Penetration rate limited by:
Sensors - Cost
Software
Penetration rate
limited by:
- Offer (emerging)
Software
Software and Power processing
ECU are the
next evolving ECU Penetration rate limited by:
- Power processing
blocks - Power consumption
Data
Data management Storage
Penetration rate
limited by:
- Bandwidth Connectivity and infrastructure
Connectivity/
- Storage capacity Infrastructure Penetration rate limited by:
- Harmonization
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 16RADARS
• Principle • Example of players
• Object-detection system that uses radio waves to • Autoliv (US), Bosch (Ger), Infineon (Ger),
determine the range, angle, or velocity of objects. Continental (Ger), Delphi (US), Denso (JP), Hella
• 24 - 77Ghz frequency (Ger), TRW (Ger), Hitachi (JP), Fujitsu ten (JP),
Mitsubishi Electric (JP) …
Source Autoliv
• Status
• Characteristics
• Can enable functions including lane change
• Less unaffected by adverse weather conditions and assist, blind spot detection, cross traffic alert,
pollution side impact sensing, parking aids and low
Radars are • Invisible mounting behind EM-transparent material possible speed collision warning
key • Unaffected by external illumination
technologies • Flexible and wide application field possible
for future • Radar signals have a high information content: distance and
autonomous speed information
cars • Additional information extraction possible with advanced
techniques (object characterization or identification by
radar signature)
• 360° sensing
• $50 - $100 ASP for short range (0,2 to 30m)
• $125 - $150 for long range (up 200m)
• Challenges are higher efficiency, lower noise, reliability,
packaging (-40°C / +85°C), prepared for car assembly &
testing routines
Source TRW
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 17AUTOMOTIVE CAMERA MARKET TREND
Up to 10 cameras per cars?
• Different Sensor Technologies are used
to assist the driver
o Radar
o Lidar
o Visible & NIR cameras (CIS)
o Infrared cameras
Cameras are o Ultrasound
part of a
broader range
• Up to 10 cameras per car
of sensing
technology o Rear view
o Surround view (x4)
o Front view
o Night front view
o In-car driver view
o In-car passenger view
o Hand motion controller
Courtesy of Texas Instrument
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 18SENSOR MODULE ASP FOR EACH LEVEL OF AUTOMATION
Sensors – Lvl 5 # Cost
Ultrasonic 10
Radar LRR 2
Radar SRR 6
Long distance cam 4
Camera surround 5
Stereo camera 2
µbolo 1
LIDAR 1
Dead reckoning 1
A car level 3 TOTAL 32
will embed for
$2200 of Sensors – Lvl 4 # Cost
sensors for Ultrasonic 10
Sensors - Lvl 3 # Cost
AD Radar LRR 2
Ultrasonic 10
Radar SRR 6
Radar LRR 2
Long distance cam 2
Sensors - Lvl 2 # Cost Radar SRR 6
Camera surround 5
Sensors - Lvl 1 # Cost Long distance cam 2
Ultrasonic 8 Stereo camera 1
Ultrasonic 4 Camera surround 5
Radar LRR 1 µbolo 1
Radar LRR 1 Stereo camera 1
LIDAR 1
Camera for Radar SRR 4 µbolo 1
1 Dead reckoning 1
surround LIDAR 1
Camera for TOTAL 29
4
TOTAL 6 surround Dead reckoning 1
TOTAL 17 TOTAL 29
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 19INDUSTRIAL CHAIN FOR AUTOMOTIVE
Some newcomers could change the landscape
Value
2022
Car
manufacturer
Tier 0.5
(Software Provider)
Tier 1
(System Manufacturer)
Tier 2
(Parts Manufacturer)
Tier 3
(Material Manufacturer)
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 20INDUSTRIAL CHAIN FOR AUTOMOTIVE
A consolidated chain
Value
2035
Service
Provider
Car
manufacturer
Tier 0.5
(Software Provider)
Tier 1
(System Manufacturer)
Tier 2
(Parts Manufacturer)
Tier 3
(Material Manufacturer)
Google or Apple as car manufacturers?
Margins are too much low for a company like Google, however they could sell an autonomous pack to transform each new
vehicle in a fully autonomous car. Apple, as always, will require a complete control on the hardware and software… It’s not
completely insane to think that they could participate to the design of a part or a complete vehicle.
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 21ORDER FORM
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From Technologies to Markets
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 22FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
Imaging Photonics
MEMS &
Sensors
MedTech
Compound
Semi.
Manufacturing
LED
Power Advanced
Electronics Packaging
Energy
Conversion @2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 234 BUSINESS MODELS
o Consulting and Analysis o Financial services
• Market data & research, marketing analysis • M&A (buying and selling)
• Technology analysis • Due diligence
• Strategy consulting • Fundraising
• Reverse engineering & costing • Maturation of companies
• Patent analysis • IP portfolio management & optimization
www.yole.fr www.yolefinance.com
www.bmorpho.com
o Reports o Media
• Market & Technology reports • i-Micronews.com website
• Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk • @Micronews e-newsletter
analysis • Technology magazines
• Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis • Communication & webcast services
• Cost Simulation Tool • Events
www.i-Micronews.com/reports www.i-Micronews.com
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 24A GROUP OF COMPANIES
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com
Fundraising
Maturation of companies
IP portfolio management & optimization
Market, www.bmorpho.com
technology and
strategy Manufacturing costs analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
consulting
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr
www.yole.fr
IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 25OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 26RESEARCH PRODUCTS - CONTENT COMPARISON
Breadth of the analysis
Standard Reports
Workshops
Depth of the analysis
Custom
Analysis
Custom analysis scope is defined with
you to meet your information and
budget needs
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 27SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN
Integrators and
end-users
system
Our analysts makers
provide
market
analysis,
technology
evaluation, Suppliers: material,
and business equipment, OSAT,
plan along the foundries…
entire supply
chain
Financial investors,
R&D centers
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 28SERVING MULTIPLE INDUSTRIAL FIELDS
Industrial and Medical
defense systems
We are
working across
multiples
industries to
understand the Energy Automotive
impact of More-
than-Moore
technologies
from system to
system
Mobile phone
Transportation and consumer
makers electronics
From A to Z…
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 29REPORTS COLLECTION
• Yole Développement publishes a comprehensive collection of market & technology reports and patent analysis in:
MEMS & Sensors
Imaging
Medical technologies (MedTech)
Advanced packaging
Power electronics
Compound semiconductors
OLED, LED & Laser diode
Semiconductor Manufacturing
Photovoltaics
Batteries
• Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include:
Technology trends and evolution: costs, barriers, roadmaps, etc.
Supply & value chain analysis: business models, relationships, value flows, etc.
In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers: challenges, inflection points, etc.
Market data ($, units, wafer starts, etc.) www.i-Micronews.com
• Every year, Yole Développement, System Plus Consulting and KnowMade publish +60 reports.
• Take the full benefit from our Bundle and Annual Subscription offers.
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 30OUR 2015 PUBLISHED REPORTS LIST
o MEMS & SENSORS − Sapphire Applications & Market 2015: from LED to Consumer Electronics
− Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles
− Sensors for Wearable Electronics And Mobile Healthcare o POWER ELECTRONICS
− Status of the MEMS Industry − Power Packaging Technology Trends and Market Expectations
− Uncooled Infrared Imaging Technology & Market Trends − Thermal Managment for LED and Power
− IR Detector and Small Size Imagers − Power Electronics for Renewable Energy
− High End Gyro, Accelerometers and IMU − Energy Management for Smart Grid, Cities and Buildings: Opportunities for battery
− Non Volatile Memory Markets and Technology Trends electricity storage solutions
− Status of Chinese Power Electronics Industry
o IMAGING & OPTOELECTRONICS − New Technologies and Architectures for Efficient Data Center
− Camera Module Packaging (Vol 1: Market & Technology Trends / Vol 2 Teardowns & − IGBT Market and Technology Trends
Reverse Engineering) − Status of Power Electronics Industry
− Uncooled Infrared Imaging Technology & Market Trends − Status of Wide Band Gap Material: GaN, SiC (and also AlN, Ga2O3, Diamond as a trend)
− Status of the CMOS Image Sensors − GaN and SiC Devices for Power Electronics Applications
o MEDTECH o ADVANCED PACKAGING
− Microfluidic for Sample Preparation − Advanced Packaging in Emerging Markets in China*
− Microfluidic Applications − Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry
− Sensors for Wearable Electronics And Mobile Healthcare − Supply Chain Readiness for Panel Manufacturing in Packaging
− Fan-in Wafer Level Packaging: Market and Technology Trends
o COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTORS − Flip Chip Business Update
− Sapphire Applications & Market 2015: from LED to Consumer Electronics − 2.5D & 3DIC Business Update*
− Status of Wide Band Gap Material: GaN, SiC (and also AlN, Ga2O3, Diamond as a trend) − Fan-Out and Embedded Die: Technologies & Market Trends
− GaN and SiC Devices for Power Electronics Applications
o MANUFACTURING
− Photolithography Equipment and Materials for Advanced Packaging, MEMS and LED
• Reports to be decided within 2015 Applications
− Thinning & Dicing Equipment for Advanced Packaging, MEMS, Photovoltaics, LED, CMOS
o LED Image Sensors
− LED Module Technologies − Non Volatile Memory Markets and Technology Trends
− UV LED - Technology, Manufacturing and Application Trends
− Phosphors & Quantum Dots 2015: LED Downconverters for Lighting & Displays
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 31MICRONEWS MEDIA
o About Micronews Media
Micronews Media, powered by Yole Développement,
ensures you the best visibility in the disruptive Focused
semiconductor community. With our services, we help community
you to reach your customers worldwide with the
media products they prefer, including our website, e-
newsletter, webcasts, and magazines. Invest in a high
added-value editorial program and get access to Yole
Développement’s network (48 000+ contacts).
o Five supports and channels for your visibility
• A technology magazine to highlight your
visibility with advertisements, company profiles,
product descriptions and white papers
Large
• A webcast to highlight your expertise and community
develop your business identifying commercial leads
Identified
• Articles, advertisements & logo and banners Mass contacts
contacts
dedicated to your company, its products and
expertise in @Micronews e-newsletter and on i-
Micronews.com
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 32COMMUNICATION SERVICES
All services listed below are available on–demand.
o i-Micronews.com, the website
Slider – Banners (on English or Japanese websites) – Articles –
Logo and profile as sponsor
o @Micronews, the e-newsletter
Headline article - Tiles
o Custom webcast
Develop your dedicated event with a high added-value program. A
turnkey event with Yole support (logistics, promotion, data…)
o Technology Magazines: Custom – Co-produced
Increase your visibility through a dedicated technology magazine
with ads, company profile, product descriptions and white papers.
It can be a custom magazine: your company is the only one to
benefit from it – or a co-produced one: up to 2 companies.
Contacts:
Camille Veyrier (veyrier@yole.fr) and Clotilde Fabre (fabre@yole.fr),
Media & Communication Coordinators.
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 33CONTACT INFORMATION
• Consulting and Specific Analysis
North America Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development
Email: laferriere@yole.fr
Japan Yutaka Katano, General Manager,Yole Japan & President,Yole K.K.
Email katano@yole.fr
RoW Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President,Yole Développement
Email eloy@yole.fr
• Report business
North America Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development
Email laferriere@yole.fr
Follow us on
Europe Fayçal El Khamassi, Headquarter Sales Coordination & Customer Service
Email khamassi@yole.fr
Japan & Asia Takashi Onozawa, Sales Asia & General Manager,Yole K.K.
Email onozawa@yole.fr
Korea Hailey Yang, Business Development Manager, Korean Office
Email yang@yole.fr
• Financial services
Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President
Email: eloy@yole.fr
• General
Email: info@yole.fr
@2015 | www.yole.fr | Sensors and Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles 34You can also read
