SURVEY GERMANY CITY OFFICE AND INVESTMENT MARKETS - AN OVERVIEW - Colliers
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GERMANY CITY SURVEY OFFICE AND INVESTMENT MARKETS – AN OVERVIEW 2020 / 2021
ACCELERATION
INSTEAD OF
STANDSTILL
At the last publication of our City Survey, Digitalization, which has now also made a
no one could even guess at the challenges breakthrough in the real estate sector,
the economy and the real estate markets has been acting as a pioneer in all of this
would face in 2020. Although the impact and setting the pace for market activity.
of the economic downturn and challeng- By making it possible to finalize deals and
ing global environment on the German sign leases online in light of the contact
leasing and investment markets were a restrictions in place, offering many em-
topic of discussion a year ago, no one ployees the option to work from home and
doubted that the unusually long, robust further spurring the e-commerce sector,
Matthias Leube MRICS boom would continue. The prospect of digitalization has brought with it transfor-
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER ongoing, strong market performance now mational changes to the office, retail,
matthias.leube@colliers.com appears obsolete, however, in view of a logistics and hotel sectors.
pandemic that temporarily eclipses all
previous risks of a downturn and is diffi- However, the Covid-19 crisis has also
cult to get a handle on because of its com- increased risk awareness and brought
plexity. But is this actually the case? with it the tendency to place greater
importance on the quality and future-
At no time did activity on the German real resilience of an asset. Being able to
estate market come to a full standstill. identify and realize sustainable concepts
Following a brief orientation phase on the that fit the demands of market players in
investment and leasing markets in Q2 that location, like Forum Steglitz featured
2020, activity began to pick up in the on our cover page, is key to crisis-resil-
second half of the year and again tangibly ient investment.
accelerated in Q4 despite a second lock-
down in early November. This momentum I look forward to exploring these new
is an impressive indication of the robust opportunities with you.
nature of the German real estate market
and the capacity of market players to
adapt to an environment that is new to all
of us.
3
CONTENTS
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
CONTENTS | 2020 / 2021
Market Data 4
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany
Office Leasing 6
Investment 9
Retail Investment 12
Industrial and Logistics Investment 15
Hotel Investment 18
City Reports
Berlin
Office Leasing 23
Investment 25
Düsseldorf
Office Leasing 29
Investment 31
Frankfurt
Office Leasing 35
Investment 37
Hamburg
Office Leasing 41
Investment 43
Cologne
Office Leasing 47
Investment 49
Munich
Office Leasing 53
Investment 55
Stuttgart
Office Leasing 59
Investment 61
Research Services 64
Glossary 66
Contacts /Locations 67
4
MARKET DATA
Office Leasing
Market Data | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
TOP 7 Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Cologne Munich Stuttgart
Stock of Office Space in million sqm 92.83 20.90 7.86 11.49 13.99 7.92 22.50 8.17
Office Space Take-up 2020 in sqm 2,555,100 734,000 248,000 329,500 334,300 202,000 567,800 139,500
Change year-on-year in % – 35.3 – 28.7 – 47.8 – 40.1 – 37.6 – 26.5 – 26.3 – 55.3
Forecast for 2021
Office Space Take-up in sqm 3,457,000 750,580 344,500 505,300 525,000 296,600 762,600 272,500
Average 2010 –2019
Prime Rent in € / sqm 41.10 28.50 45.00 30.00 25.75 39.50 25.50
Forecast for 2021
Average Rent in € / sqm 28.70 16.30 23.00 17.10 15.90 21.50 16.60
Forecast for 2021
Vacant Office Space in sqm 3,269,900 354,000 436,500 810,200 413,300 219,300 787,900 248,700
Vacancy Rate in % 3.5 1.7 5.5 7.1 3.0 2.8 3.5 3.0
Change year-on-year in bp* 60 50 – 40 20 50 60 130 110
Forecast for 2021
The data for Berlin, Düsseldorf, Hamburg and Cologne are related to the respective city area. The data for Frankfurt, Munich and Stuttgart are related to each of the
respective markets on the whole.
* basis points
Investment
Germany TOP 7 Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt HamburgCologne Munich Stuttgart
Transaction Volume 2020 in million € 59,247 30,576 8,549 3,220 6,335 5,008 1,450 4,969 1,045
Change year-on-year in % – 17.3 – 30.6 – 29.8 – 16.1 – 19.2 16.7 – 55.2 – 54.4 – 40.5
Forecast for 2021
Transaction Volume in million € 43,599 24,702 5,658 2,127 5,220 3,473 1,501 5,459 1,264
Average 2010 – 2019
Prime Yield Offices in % 2.80 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.30 2.70 3.10
Prime Yield High Street Retail in % 3.20 3.40 2.80 3.30 3.40 2.80 3.30
Prime Yield Logistics in % 3.70 **
** Refers to the defined logistics market areas
5
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
COMMERCIAL
REAL ESTATE
MARKET
GERMANY
OFFICE LEASING
6
INVESTMENT
9
RETAIL INVESTMENT
12
INDUSTRIAL AND
LOGISTICS INVESTMENT
15
HOTEL INVESTMENT
18
6
OFFICE LEASING
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Take-up Following a slow start to the year, the
German office leasing market hit its
The German office leasing market was hit
trough in Q3 with take-up at just under
hard by the Covid-19 pandemic. In early
600,000 sqm. Sentiment improved at
2020, the global economic downturn
year-end and Q4 2020 posted the year’s
mainly impacted manufacturing and ex-
highest quarterly take-up of 712,300 sqm.
port-oriented sectors. At the latest by
spring, however, almost all sectors have
Activity proved livelier in Berlin than in
found themselves in a recession. As ex-
Germany’s other top 7 cities. The German
pected, the office leasing market is being
capital recorded 734,000 sqm in take-up
affected by the economic crisis as well.
in 2020, only slightly below the ten-year
Expansion plans have been postponed or
average of 750,000 sqm. Annual take-up
are simply not being implemented as the
in the other cities came in 25% to 50%
result of the pandemic. Roughly 2.6 mil-
below the long-time average. Most loca-
lion sqm in take-up was posted in Germa-
tions only saw a handful of large-scale
ny’s 7 top office hubs in 2020, down
leases signed for over 10,000 sqm.
roughly 35% compared to the previous
Leases targeting over 5,000 sqm were
year’s exceptional results and around
also scarcer than in the previous year.
25% below the ten-year average. Never-
Take-up of small and medium-scale units
theless, 2020 take-up results are still
was not as heavily impacted by the
higher than they were during the 2009
pandemic with some locations posting
financial crisis, in which only 2.3 million
relatively substantial results.
sqm of office space was taken up.
Fast Facts Figure 1: Office Space Take-up in the TOP 7
in million sqm
Office Leasing TOP 7 2020 Change
year-on-year
4,5 4.2
Office Space Take-up 2,555,100 sqm – 35.3% 3.9 3.8 3.9
3,5
Vacant Floor Space 3,269,900 sqm 22.9%
4,0
Vacancy Rate 3.5% 60 bp* 3.0
3,0 2.6
Office Space Stock 92.83 million sqm 0.2%
2,5
* basis points
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Whole year Forecast
Average 2016 – 2020
7
Rents landlords in the form of rent-free periods
began to play an increasingly important
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
The increase in prime rents over the past
role towards the end of the year.
several years, sometimes in the double
digits, stopped short in early 2020, and
prime rents have been trending sideways Supply and Vacancy
ever since. The only exception is Stutt-
Unlike 2019, vacancy increased across
gart, where prime rents rose more than
the board with the exception of Düssel-
6% to a current €25.50 per sqm. Prime
dorf. However, the wave of vacancies
rents in Frankfurt fell slightly by 50 cents
feared by some market participants did
to €45.00 per sqm, allowing the city to
not materialize. Vacancies were only up
keep its status as having the highest
moderately with the vacancy rate still
prime rents in Germany. Frankfurt pri-
below the 5% threshold in all cities except
marily has this reputation due to the
for Düsseldorf and Frankfurt, indicating
unique office space offered by the city’s
a tense market situation.
CBD combined with the presence of
solvent tenants from the consulting, com-
Although the practice of subletting
munication and finance sectors.
increased in significance in H2, offers
remained scattered and subletting has
The situation around average rents paint-
yet to become a widespread phenomenon.
ed a diverse picture. Average rents in
The average share of vacancies in the
Berlin, Frankfurt and Munich continued to
TOP 7 is less than 10%.
rise considerably by 9%, 8% and 7%, re-
spectively. Tenants in Berlin could expect
Only a few new-build developments saw
to pay an average of €28.70 per sqm with
their completion delayed and around
€21.50 per sqm the standard in Munich
1.7 million sqm of new office space hit the
and €23.00 per sqm in Frankfurt. Düssel-
market in 2020. Almost 80% of that space
dorf experienced a very different trend
had been taken up by year-end. A similar
with average rents down almost 6% to
amount of office space is scheduled for
€16.30 per sqm. Incentives granted by
Figure 2: Completions of Office Properties in the Figure 3: Vacancy Rate in the TOP 7 in %
TOP 7 in total in 1,000 sqm and Vacancy in million sqm
2,000 1,888 6
1,739 1,697 4.9 %
5
1,500 4.1 %
1,226 4 4.4
3.5 %
1,070 3.1 %
3.7 2.9 %
939
1,000 843 3 3.3
770 774 2.9
2.7
2
500
1
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Completions Pre-let Vacancy Vacancy Rate
Average 2016 – 2020
8
completion in the next two years as well. The start of vaccinations and general up-
Around 63% of the space scheduled for swing in the economy give cause for hope.
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
completion in 2021 has been preleased According to the ifo Business Climate
along with 40% of the space scheduled Index, company business sentiment for
for completion in 2022. Despite the spike 2021 was up in December and a number
in remote working since the spring, com- of economic forecasts are predicting GDP
panies do not appear to be turning their growth of over 4%. This positive outlook
backs on the office despite the fact that will trigger a boost in demand on the of-
working from home is gaining increasing fice markets, albeit somewhat delayed.
acceptance with employers and their Due to the second wave of the pandemic,
employees. Offices will continue to be the we do not expect the markets to return
main hub for communication and innova- to pre-crisis levels in the near future.
tion going forward. However, a result of 3.0 million sqm take-
up is feasible.
Summary and Outlook
2020 was a challenging year for the office
leasing market. Many companies were
Philipp Allroggen more reserved in their leasing activity
Junior Consultant I Research than in past years because of the Covid-19
+49 211 862062-40 crisis and the uncertainties it has brought
philipp.allroggen@colliers.com with it.
Figure 4: Vacancy Rate in the TOP 7 in % Figure 5: Average Rents in the TOP 7 in €/sqm
15 30
28
26
24
10
22
20
18
5
16
14
12
0 10
Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20 Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20
Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg
Cologne Munich Stuttgart Cologne Munich Stuttgart
9
INVESTMENT
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
Transaction Volume Supply and Demand
German commercial real estate assets Investor confidence in the German real
posted a transaction volume of €59.2bn in estate market was quick to rebound fol-
2020, reflecting the third-best result in lowing a brief orientation phase in Q2.
the past decade while significantly ex- With ten large-scale transactions chang-
ceeding the €50bn mark for the sixth year ing hands for over €250m in Q1, this num-
in a row despite the Covid-19 pandemic. ber halfed to five in Q2, bounced back to
Q4 contributed €18.2bn, or 31%, to the ten in Q3 and increased to thirteen in Q4.
annual result, slightly exceeding the re-
cord start to the year of €17.7bn. This indi- The year’s highest-volume deal by far was
cates a return to the upward trend that the TLG portfolio acquisition for around
characterized the investment market in €4bn in Q1 within the scope of the
H2 2020 following the relatively moderate Aroundtown merger. This noteworthy
impact of the first lockdown, with market deal alone accounts for one-fifth of the
activity even gaining additional momen- annual total volume generated by portfolio
tum in the last three months of the year. acquisitions, reflecting €20.9bn, or a 35%
market share. The largest single-asset
Investors continue to focus on Germany’s deal of the year was Silberturm in Frank-
top 7 investment hubs, pouring roughly furt, which was sold on behalf of Sam-
€30.6bn, or 52% of transaction volume, sung Life Insurance and asset manager
into these markets in 2020. However, de- Hines to Austrian Imfarr Beteiligungs AG
spite the fact that there were high-volume and Swiss SN Beteiligungen Holding AG.
deals signed in H2, none of the country’s The deal marks an important milestone
top 7 investment locations were able to for the overall market in terms of the re-
exceed the €10bn mark in 2020 as Berlin turn of foreign investors, particularly
and Munich managed in 2019. from Asia, after the lockdown in March.
Fast Facts Figure 1: Total and Office Transaction Volume in
Germany in billion €
Transaction Volume in million € 2020 2019 Change
Commercial Properties total 59,247 71,630 – 17.3% 80
71.6
Total Top 7 30,576 44,047 – 30.6% 70
60.6 59.2
57.3 57.5
Type of transaction 60
52.6
Individual Transactions 38,341 50,576 – 24.2% 50
40.5
Share in the TOP 7 23,324 34,908 – 33.2% 40
Portfolio Transactions 20,906 21,053 – 0.7% 30.9
30 24.9 26.7
Share in the TOP 7 7,252 9,140 – 20.7% 20.4
20
Source of capital
10
Share by International Buyers 25,344 30,436 – 16.7%
0
Share in the TOP 7 13,151 19,841 – 33.7%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Share by International Sellers 17,900 30,526 – 41.4% Transaction Volume in Germany Forecast
Share in the TOP 7 9,126 20,356 – 55.2% thereof Office Properties Average 2016 – 2020
10
Foreign investors accounted for an overall particularly in Q4. As a result, prime
market share of 43% and a transaction vol- yields are currently posting anywhere
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
ume of €25.3bn. Domestic investors with from 2.70% in Munich to 3.30% in
their strong equity base, however, acted as Cologne. However, building quality and
a particularly stabilizing factor in the face length of lease term are playing an in-
of the crisis over the course of the year. creasingly important role in determining
German institutional investors proved the purchase price and marketability of
quite active in the small-to-medium market a property. Highly sought-after logistics
segment of under €100m, particularly in properties that meet current market
Q2 and Q3 when foreign investors tended standards recorded the most substantial
to prefer a wait-and-see stance. Through- price increases throughout 2020. Aver-
out all of 2020, German institutional inves- age prime yields in Germany’s top
tors dominated this size segment with a locations came to 3.70% in December.
market share of 75% and a 57% market However, we expect to see considerable
share across all size segments. price reductions outside the premium
segment. Office/retail mix buildings in
Open-ended real estate funds and special prime locations were only sporadically
funds took the lead buy-side with €13.2bn, involved in deals in 2020, with yields ris-
or 22%, ahead of asset and fund manag- ing in many markets.
ers with €11.6bn, or 20%, and listed prop-
erty companies with €7.1bn, or 12%.
Office Investment
Office assets were able to strengthen
Yields
their lead and increase their market share
Gross prime yields experienced further to 46% in the past three months. Discus-
compression ranging between 5 bps and sions surrounding the topic of the office
20 bps in Germany’s office hubs of Mu- of the future in light of the current trend
nich, Düsseldorf, Hamburg and Stuttgart towards remote and flexible working
due to excess demand for core assets, arrangements as well as the pandemic’s
Figure 2: Transaction Volume Figure 3: Buyer and Seller Groups in Germany
by Size Category 2020 share in % in billion €
upupto to € 10
€ 10 m m5%5% 00 5 5 1010 1515 20
20
€ 10
€ 10 mmto to € 25
€ 25 m m10%10% Open-ended
Open-ended Real
Real Estate
Estate Funds/Special
Funds/Special Funds
Funds
€ 25
€ 25 mmto to € 50
€ 50 13%
m m13% Asset
Asset Managers/Fund
Managers/Fund Managers
Managers
Listed
Listed Property
Property Companies
Companies
Property
Property Developers
Developers
€ 50
€ 50 mmto to € 100
€ 100 15%
m m15%
Insurance
Insurance Companies
Companies
Other
Other Investors
Investors
€ 100
€ 100 mmto to € 250
€ 250 26%
m m26% Property
Property Developers
Developers
above € 250
above € 250 m 31% m 31% Listed
Listed Property
Property Companies
Companies
Asset
Asset Managers/Fund
Managers/Fund Managers
Managers
Open-ended
Open-ended Real
Real Estate
Estate Funds/Special
Funds/Special Funds
Funds
Corporates/Owner-occupiers
Corporates/Owner-occupiers
Other
Other Investors
Investors
Buyers
Buyers Sellers
Sellers11
overall economic impact on the leasing break of the pandemic. In the current
markets do not fundamentally call into market environment, off-market options
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
question the segment’s significance as an should prove more popular than struc-
asset class. Compared to the exceptional tured sales processes. With pressure to
€40.5bn recorded in the office segment invest high, we expect transaction volume
in 2019, transaction volume was down to come in between €55bn and €60bn in
one-third to €27.1bn. At the start of the 2021 despite the many uncertainties still
pandemic, investors tended to shy away impacting the markets.
from investments in high-volume proper-
ties, which had fueled previous-year
results. This particularly affected the of-
fice segment.
Summary and Outlook
Unlike the first lockdown, the underlying
sentiment among investors following the
announcement of a second lockdown was
positive to optimistic. Market players have
learned that it is possible to conduct most
steps in a transaction digitally, even if the
process may take somewhat longer.
The crisis has brought with it opportuni-
ties in certain asset and risk classes. In
terms of the dip seen on the rental mar-
Susanne Kiese kets, however, which were hit harder by
Head of Research the crisis than the investment markets,
+49 211 862062-47 financial reviews of tenants and proper-
susanne.kiese@colliers.com ties will take longer than before the out-
Figure 4: Transaction Volume by Type of Property Figure 5: Office Prime Yield in the TOP 7 in %
in billion €
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 5.0
5.0
Office
Office
4.5
4.5
Retail
Retail
Industrial 4.0
4.0
Industrial
&& Logistics
Logistics
Building
Building Site
Site 3.5
3.5
Commerical
Commerical
Mixed
Mixed use
use 3.0
3.0
Hotel
Hotel
2.5
2.5
Other
Other properties
properties Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20
Berlin
Berlin Düsseldorf
Düsseldorf Frankfurt
Frankfurt Hamburg
Hamburg
Transaction
Transaction Volume
Volume Germany
Germany thereof
thereof TOP
TOP 77
Cologne
Cologne Munich
Munich Stuttgart
Stuttgart12
RETAIL INVESTMENT
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Transaction Volume comprising 33 Metro wholesale stores,
which was sold by Aroundtown to P3, the
German retail assets changed hands in
European logistics platform of Singa-
2020 for roughly €11.4bn in total. Transac-
pore-based sovereign wealth fund GIC,
tion volume was up 12% yoy, with 2020
for around €800m.
replacing 2019 as the third-best year of
the decade. The trend reversal we saw at
These megadeals contributed considera-
the end of the year, with transaction
bly to the high market share claimed by
volume up 42% qoq, was particularly key
portfolio deals, which accounted for
in guaranteeing a positive end to a year
roughly two-thirds of total transaction
marked by the Covid-19 pandemic.
volume, or €7.7bn.
Supply and Demand Quantum’s sale of the Karstadt depart-
ment store on Mönkebergstraße in
The highest-volume retail deals in 2020,
Hamburg to Signa in Q3 for roughly
however, were signed in Q1, including
€250m was the largest single-asset deal
the sale of more than 30 retail assets
in 2020. A total of five single assets were
within the scope of the TLG acquisition
sold in 2020 in the 9-figure range, two
by Aroundtown. In terms of transaction
of which changed hands in Q4. Even after
volume, the retail portion of the mixed
the second lockdown was imposed,
portfolio accounted for around 25% of
market activity remained intact.
the deal’s total volume of €4bn. Of similar
scope was the deal involving a portfolio
Pure-play food retail has become the
comprised of 80 Real hypermarkets,
major driver behind investment activity in
which was acquired by Russian SCP
terms of use type. Between 2016 and
Group from Metro for around €900m.
2020, transaction volume involving this
Q4 saw the sale of the Matrix portfolio
Fast Facts Figure 1: Transaction Volume Retail
in billion €
Investment 2020 2019
Transaction Volume in million € 11,365 10,122 16
Portfolio Transactions 67% 57% 14
TOP 7 21% 33% 11.9
12 11.4
Share by International Buyers 52% 39% 9.8 10.1
10 9.2
Share by International Sellers 42% 53%
8
Prime Yield High Street Retail 2.80% 2.75%
6
4
2
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Whole year Average 2016 – 202013
retail segment more than tripled to a re- ed by office-retail mix assets and shop-
cord €2.0bn from a previous €0.6bn. ping centers correlates with the low rate
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
Discounters, supermarkets and hyper- of transactions recorded in Germany’s
markets experienced a boom in 2020 due top 7 investment hubs, with market share
to the Covid-19 pandemic with volumes down to 21% yoy from 33% in 2019.
increasing 30% in 2020 alone. The share
in total retail investment claimed by this Foreign investors accounted for a 52%
sector has risen steadily over the past five market share and German investors for
years from 6% to 18%. 48%. In light of the major deals outlined
above, the dominant investor groups rank
Retail warehouses and retail parks ac- as follows: Open-ended real estate funds
counted for €5.7bn this past year, reflect- and special funds (€2.2bn, or 19%) led the
ing half of total retail transaction volume pack buy-side followed by listed property
and an increase of 13 percentage points companies and asset and fund managers
yoy. Downtown office-retail mix proper- (both with €2.0bn, or 18%). Listed proper-
ties in prime locations, which also include ty companies dominated sell-side with
department stores, came in second place €4.5bn, or 39%, ahead of asset and fund
with €4.0bn, or 35%, down 10 percentage managers (15%) and open-ended real
points yoy. Deals like the one in Hamburg estate funds and special funds (13%).
also show that investors are becoming
increasingly aware of opportunities to
Yields
reposition downtown assets with high
footfall as mixed-use properties. Al- The yield trend of different usage types
though this trend is still in its infancy, it continued to diverge, reflecting differenc-
continues to grow in significance because es in investor demand. Highstreet assets
of the pandemic. Shopping centers regis- in Germany’s 7 major investment hubs
tered a d
ecrease in market share from have departed from their historically low
18% to 15% and generated a transaction yield levels and currently range between
volume of €1.7bn. The low share generat- 2.80% in Munich and Frankfurt and 3.40%
Figure 2: Transaction Volume by Type of Figure 3: Transaction Volume by Buyer and
Building 2020 share in % Seller Groups in billion €
RetailWarehouses/Retail
Warehouses/RetailParks 50%
Parks 50%
Retail 00 11 22 33 44 55
Open-endedReal
Open-ended RealEstate
EstateFunds/Special
Funds/SpecialFunds
Funds
ListedProperty
PropertyCompanies
Companies
HighStreet
High 35%%
Street 35 Listed
AssetManagers/Fund
Asset Managers/FundManagers
Managers
OpportunityFunds/Private
Opportunity Funds/PrivateEquity
EquityFunds
Funds
PensionFunds
Pension Funds
OtherInvestors
Other Investors
ListedProperty
Listed PropertyCompanies
Companies
Asset Managers/Fund Managers
Asset Managers/Fund Managers
ShoppingCenters
Shopping 15%
Centers 15%
Open-ended Real Estate Funds/Special Funds
Open-ended Real Estate Funds/Special Funds
PropertyDevelopers
Property Developers
Closed-ended Real Estate Funds
Closed-ended Real Estate Funds
OtherInvestors
Other Investors
Buyers
Buyers Sellers
Sellers14
in Düsseldorf and Cologne, while shop- Summary and Outlook
ping centers in high-footfall locations are
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
The Covid-19 pandemic shows how im-
posting yields at 4.80%. Prime yields for
portant it is to evaluate retail assets
retail parks continue moving toward
particularly in terms of their resilience
4.00%, which is lower than those record-
based on their heterogeneous composi-
ed for shopping centers in prime loca-
tion. While downtown brick-and-mortar
tions. Some stand-alone retail warehous-
fashion retailers took a heavy hit, other
es are posting yields well below the
sectors are benefiting from a selective
5.00% mark, while food retail is trading at
boom including grocery as well as
a significant premium.
non-food sectors such as recreation,
sporting goods and DIY. Even in this
challenging environment and thanks to
the comparatively small-volume retail
Susanne Kiese warehouse and retail park segments
Head of Research as the main driver, annual transaction
+49 211 862062-47 volume came in at well over €10bn, which
susanne.kiese@colliers.com we expect will set the bar for next year.
Figure 4: Prime Yield High Street Retail in %
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20
Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg
Cologne Munich Stuttgart15
INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS INVESTMENT
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
Transaction Volume tition and 2020 saw multiples in a range
that you would typically only expect for
The German industrial and logistics in-
office assets.
vestment market finished out 2020 with
an exceptional transaction volume total-
ing at roughly €7.5bn. Topping previ- Supply and Demand
ous-year results by 14%, this strong annu-
An above-average number of sale-and-
al result is second only to record year
leaseback transactions generated some
2017 (€8.7bn). Although the logistics
additional supply throughout the year.
asset class continued to rank third on the
This increase in sale-and-leaseback
overall commercial real estate market, it
transactions can primarily be attributed to
did manage to up its market share to 13%
economic fallout from the Covid-19 pan-
compared to the previous year’s 9%. 2020
demic, as some companies are seeking
was marked by remarkable deals that
liquidity by selling their own properties in
highlighted the strength and attractive-
this attractive market environment, in
ness of this asset class more than ever
part to bolster their operative growth and
before. The global Covid-19 pandemic
competitive position through corporate
created additional impetus for investment
acquisitions. This trend has meant a slight
in logistics assets and put the logistics
boost in investment opportunities and
asset class on the radar of many investors
has proven particularly beneficial to in-
for the first time. An increasing number of
vestors looking for new, sometimes
investors with very little or even no prior
riskier and more profitable opportunities
exposure to logistics were involved in
in a logistics investment market with very
bids for this asset class. Ongoing limited
little supply on offer.
supply, particularly in the core segment,
also served to intensify the fierce compe-
Fast Facts Figure 1: Transaction Volume Industrial
and Logistics in billion €
Investment 2020 2019
Transaction Volume in million € 7,478 6,566 8 7.6
Portfolio Transactions 35% 40% 7
TOP 7 33% 35% 5.8
6
Share by International Buyers 43% 60% 4.8
5
Share by International Sellers 28% 30% 3.9
4
Prime Yield Logistics in the TOP 7 (average in %) 3.70% 4.20% 3.2
2.9
3
1.8 1.7
2 1.4
1.1
1
4.6 8.7 6.8 6.6 7.5
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Logistics Industrial TAV in total
Average 2016 – 202016
German investors generated the majority sale of the Roots portfolio featuring 14 as-
of annual transaction volume, pouring sets, which was bought by AEW Europe
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
roughly €4.2bn into industrial and logis- for over €500m in Q4, and Union Invest-
tics assets and increasing their market ment’s acquisition of the Rocket portfolio.
share by another 18 percentage points yoy
to 57%. Because of travel restrictions,
Yields
foreign investors had very limited oppor-
tunities to schedule property viewings The boom in investor demand for logistics
or on-site visits. This situation caused and the resulting fierce competition for
their market share to drop significantly these assets led to significant yield com-
over the course of the year. Remarkably, pression in Germany this past year. While
the logistics investment market was able the average gross prime yields for state-
to achieve such strong annual results of-the-art logistics assets in Germany’s
without the help of major portfolio deals top logistics regions came to roughly
in the multi-billion-euro range. Transac- 4.20% in 2019, they fell a further 50 bps to
tion volume for logistics assets even below 3.70% over the course of 2020 (re-
managed to come in just behind the ex- flecting a net yield of around 3.30%).
ceptional record-breaking year of 2017. Some of the deals finalized in 2020 were
Portfolio deals accounted for around absolute outperformers in terms of the
€2.6bn, reflecting a 35% share in total total package they offered. These proper-
transaction volume. One of the largest ties saw purchase price multiples in ex-
portfolio deals to change hands in 2020 cess of 28x based on annual net rent. Mul-
was Union Investment’s acquisition of the tiples in this range are typically more
European Logistrial portfolio early in the common in the office and residential mar-
year. The deal posted a volume of roughly kets. As a result, the purchase prices
€800m with more than half of total value achieved per square meter in some cases
generated by the portfolio’s assets in exceeded the €2,000 mark, setting the
Germany. Other portfolio deals to change tone for future transactions with similar
hands in the mid-9-figure range were the features.
Figure 2: Transaction Volume Figure 3: Transaction Volume by Buyer and
by Size Category 2020 share in % Seller Groups in billion €
upup
to to € 10 6%
m m6%
€ 10
00 1 1 22 3 3 44
Asset
Asset Managers/Fund
Managers/Fund Managers
Managers
€ 10
€ 10 mmto to € 30
€ 30 19%
m m19% Open-ended
Open-ended Real
Real Estate
Estate Funds/Special
Funds/Special Funds
Funds
Corporates/Owner-occupiers
Corporates/Owner-occupiers
Insurance
Insurance Companies
Companies
Property
Property Developers
Developers
€ 30 11% Other Investors
€ 30 mmto to € 50
€ 50 m m11% Other Investors
Property
Property Developers
Developers
€ 50
€ 50 mmto to € 100
€ 100 14%
m m14% Asset Managers/Fund Managers
Asset Managers/Fund Managers
above € 100 m
above € 100 m 50% 50% Open-ended Real Estate Funds/Special Funds
Open-ended Real Estate Funds/Special Funds
Corporates/Owner-occupiers
Corporates/Owner-occupiers
Pension
Pension Funds
Funds
Other
Other Investors
Investors
Buyers
Buyers Sellers
Sellers17
Outlook
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
The growth trend in e-commerce speaks
to the increasing attractiveness and im-
portance of logistics assets in Germany.
Due to the spread of the Covid-19 pan-
demic in 2020 and the resulting restric-
tions on everyday life, more and more
people are choosing to order online and
have groceries delivered to their homes.
This has considerably increased parcel
delivery volumes in Germany and trig-
gered greater demand for warehouse and
logistics space. We also expect growing
pressure to optimize and innovate in some
areas of traditional industry in the
post-Covid-19 era to lead to calls for lean-
er operations in modern logistics assets.
Because the logistics sector has once
Nicole Kinne again proven resilient in times of crisis,
Associate Director I we anticipate that the run on industrial
Research Industrial & Logistics and logistics assets will continue,
+49 89 624294-792 possibly causing further yield compres-
nicole.kinne@colliers.com sion in 2021.
Figure 4: Prime Yield Logistics in the TOP 7
Average in %
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 2018
HOTEL INVESTMENT
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Transaction Volume Supply and Demand
Hotel assets changed hands for a total of Similar to 2019, an increasing number of
€2.0bn in 2020. The hotel investment hotels changed hands within the scope of
market almost came to a standstill due to portfolio deals, which generated a market
the Covid-19 pandemic following a solid share of roughly 38%. Aroundtown’s take-
start to the year, in which Q1 brought in over of TLG in Q1 2020 was the primary
roughly €1.0bn in transaction volume. driver behind this high market share along
The unsteady recovery in Q3 was unable with several smaller portfolios that
to put down roots before the second changed hands over the course of the
wave of the pandemic and the restrictions year. The sale of nhow in Berlin was the
it brought with it again hit the hotel busi- largest single-asset deal of the year.
ness in general, and along with it, the Although a dozen additional assets broke
investment market for hotel assets. through the €50m barrier, most of the
Transaction volume fell almost 60% assets sold went for below €30m. Core
compared to strong previous-year results assets in good locations remained attrac-
and came up almost one-third short of tive and competitive despite the challeng-
the ten-year average. As overall commer- ing market environment. Conversions
cial transaction volume in Germany was have been gaining in significance as well
not nearly hit as hard by the Covid-19 with a growing number of hotel assets
crisis as the hotel segment, hotel assets sold for conversion projects in 2020,
saw their market share fall to 3%. particularly towards the end of the year.
Hotel assets are currently being convert-
ed into office and residential properties
as well as healthcare and mixed-use.
Fast Facts Figure 1: Transaction Volume Hotel
in billion €
Investment 2020 2019
Transaction Volume in million € 2,035 5,033 6
5.2
5.0
Portfolio Transactions 38% 27%
5
TOP 7 53% 60% 4.2
4.0
Share by International Buyers 41% 41% 4
Share by International Sellers 18% 30%
3
Prime Yield Hotel 4.01% 3.70% 2.0
2
1
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Whole year Average 2015 – 201919
One favorable development is the fact that Hotels in the 4-star segment remained the
foreign investors maintained their 41% most popular investment, pulling in a
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
market share buy-side despite the pan- market share of 56%. Second place went
demic. That means German hotel assets to 3-star hotels with a one-third share of
continue to attract foreign capital. Listed the market. Investment in budget and
property companies were the most active luxury hotels almost came to a complete
buy-side in 2020 with a market share of standstill with only a few deals registered.
just over 23%. Asset and fund managers Serviced apartments were the only hotel
followed in the ranks with 18% in the wake category to experience a favorable trend
of a considerably more active 2019 where with their share in total hotel transaction
they generated a share of 27%. While volume up five percentage points to 8%,
open-ended real estate funds and special or €166m. Serviced apartments have
funds were the most active buy-side into navigated the crisis well to date thanks to
2019, they slid to third place in 2020 with strong occupancy rates and are becoming
13%. increasingly popular with investors.
German investors dominated market Core assets are currently the most
activity sell-side and accounted for 82% popular among the risk classes. Supply,
of total transaction volume. As in previous however, is limited. Many investors are
years, property developers proved the avoiding core+ assets in the current
most active, selling assets valued at more market environment, particularly due to
than €724m, which reflects a market the tense situation currently being faced
share of almost 36%. Listed property by hotel operators. Value-add assets are
companies ranked second with 18%, rarely being sold as such but are rather
largely due to the TLG takeover. Family being further developed into core or core+
offices and private investors claimed assets before being listed on the market.
third place with 14%.
Figure 2: Transaction Volume by Star Segment 2020 Figure 3: Transaction Volume by Buyer and
share in % Seller Groups in billion €
0.0
0.0 0.5
0.5 1.0
1.0
4 Stars55%
4 Stars 55% Listed Property
Listed Companies
Property Companies
Asset
AssetManagers/Fund
Managers/Fund Managers
Managers
3 Stars33%
3 Stars 33% Open-ended Real Estate Funds/Special Funds
Open-ended Real Estate Funds/Special Funds
Property Developers
Property Developers
Private Investors/Family Offices
Private Investors/Family Offices
Other Investors
Other Investors
Property Developers
Property Developers
Boarding
Boarding House8%
House 8%
Listed Property Companies
Listed Property Companies
Private Investors/Family Offices
2 Stars2%
2 Stars 2% Private Investors/Family Offices
5 Stars1%1%
5 Stars Corporates/Owner-occupiers
Corporates/Owner-occupiers
1 Star1%1%
1 Star Asset Managers/Fund
Asset Managers
Managers/Fund Managers
Other Investors
Other Investors
Buyers
Buyers Sellers
Sellers20
As a result of these activities, the core Summary and Outlook
segment posted €1.1bn in transaction
Commercial Real Estate Market Germany | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
The hotel segment is likely to face another
volume in 2020, reflecting a market share
difficult year in 2021. Convention hotels
of 59%. Core+ and value-add followed in
will particularly continue to suffer under
the ranks with 32% and 6%, respectively.
the ongoing restrictions. Operators are
expected to continue to pursue market
Yields consolidation. Hotel chains, particularly
those in the budget segment, appear to be
Yields for hotel investments remained
navigating the crisis more successfully.
stable over the course of the year. Munich
Major operators in the lower price seg-
continued to post the lowest gross prime
ment are even continuing with their ex-
yields at a flat 3.70% with yields in Berlin
pansion strategies. Core assets in top
at the other end of the spectrum at 4.40%.
locations remain an attractive investment
Gross prime yields nationwide are post-
and the same applies to properties boast-
ing at an average of roughly 4.00%. Be-
ing conversion potential, which offer
cause so few deals were transacted in
opportunity as well. We expect the market
2020, these numbers are based on limited
to return to pre-crisis levels no earlier
data.
than 2023. Look for market recovery to
move from the inside out and from bottom
to top. That means that hotels in down-
town locations will likely recover more
Philipp Allroggen swiftly than those located in city outskirts
Junior Consultant I Research and that demand for budget accommoda-
+49 211 862062-40 tion will pick up earlier than demand for
philipp.allroggen@colliers.com higher priced accommodation.
Figure 4: Prime Yield Hotel in %
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20
Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg
Cologne Munich Stuttgart21
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
City reports | 2020 / 2021
CITY
REPORTS
BERLIN
22
DÜSSELDORF
28
FRANKFURT
34
HAMBURG
40
COLOGNE
46
MUNICH
52
STUTTGART
5822 Berlin | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International BERLIN
CITY FACTS Berlin Fast Facts
Population in 1,000 3,669 Office Leasing Berlin 2020 Change year-on-year
Employees Paying Social Security Contributions 1,539 Office Space Take-up 734,000 sqm – 28.7%
in 1,000
Leasing Take-up 668,600 sqm – 32.4%
Unemployment Rate in % 10.1 Prime Rent 41.10 € / sqm 3.0%
Per Capita Disposable Income in € 22,294 Average Rent 28.70 € / sqm 9.1%
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 50 bp
Office Space Stock 20.90 million sqm 2.0%
Rents in € / sqm
Submarket Range of Rents
CBD City West 20.75 - 42.50
CBD City East 20.00 - 39.80
CBD Potsdamer Platz / Leipziger Platz 20.85 - 38.00
Central Station 28.00 - 35.00
Mediaspree 24.00 - 36.15
City West 17.00 - 32.00
City East 18.45 - 42.30
City Margins North 19.40 - 38.25
City Margins South 18.00 - 34.00
Periphery North 13.50 - 27.50
Periphery West 21.00 - 28.50
Periphery South 14.00 - 30.00
Periphery East 14.45 - 26.00
Adlershof 15.00 - 20.00
Schönefeld 14.45 - 16.2523
OFFICE LEASING
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Berlin | 2020 / 2021
Take-up Market activity once again revolved
around the CBD City Ost and City Ost sub-
The Berlin office leasing market posted
markets, which contributed around
around 734,000 sqm in take-up in 2020,
253,000 sqm to total take-up. The largest
a good result in line with the ten-year
lease of 2020, which was signed by
average of roughly 750,000 sqm despite
insurer Deutsche Rentenversicherung for
the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
more than 84,000 sqm at the An den
The final quarter of the year proved par-
Treptowers property, was a major driver
ticularly robust with take-up coming in at
behind the above-average result posted
231,000 sqm. A number of large-scale
in the Mediaspree submarket of
leases signed for over 10,000 sqm played
113,000 sqm. Neighboring locations are
a significant role, accounting for more
also attracting increasing demand due to
than 300,000 sqm in take-up.
the ongoing supply bottleneck in central
locations. The City Periphery North and
Public administration was responsible for
City Periphery South submarkets both
roughly 270,000 sqm in take-up, generat-
benefited from current market conditions
ing a market share of almost 40%. With
and also ranked high among the city’s
this result, the public sector solidified its
most popular office locations. Take-up in
dominant position on the Berlin office
the City Periphery South submarket was
market. Companies from the ICT, banking
particularly impacted by the lease signed
and finance sectors trailed in the ranks at
by Deutsche Bahn for roughly 30,000 sqm
some distance, each falling just shy of
at EUREF-Campus on Torgauer Straße.
double-digit results.
Figure 1: Office Space Take-up in 1,000 sqm Figure 2: Completion Volume in 1,000 sqm
1,200 1,200
989
1,000 1,000
837
800 740 752 800
669
602
600 600 551
457
400 400 309
341
203 185
200 123 200
100
39 41 65
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Leasing Owner-occupiers Completions thereof Pre-let/Owner-occupied24
Rents Key Developments
Berlin | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Office rents have been showing very little A total of 551,000 sqm are currently in the
change in the wake of the pandemic and development pipeline for 2021 with
remained high at year-end 2020. Prime around two-thirds of this space already
rents come to a current €41.10 per sqm taken up as at the start of the year. These
with average rents at €28.70 per sqm, developments are primarily targeting CBD
reflecting a yoy increase of 3% and 9%, locations in the City Ost and West submar-
respectively. Tenants were willing to pay kets and around the Berlin central station.
more than €35.00 per sqm for roughly
106,000 sqm of new office space.
Summary and Outlook
We can look for rents to continue to rise
Supply and Vacancy
slightly in 2021, albeit with significantly
Berlin’s extremely low vacancy rate of less momentum than in past years. Nu-
1.2% increased slightly over the course of merous businesses are on the lookout for
2020 to 1.7% at the end of December. large-scale units in 2021 as well, guaran-
The amount of space available for imme- teeing the Berlin market a solid founda-
diate tenancy rose yoy to around tion going forward despite the impact of
354,000 sqm. The situation in submar- the pandemic. We have yet to see a
kets outside Berlin’s suburban train ring dramatic drop in vacancy. Office proper-
remains particularly tense at below 1.0%. ties will continue to play an important
role for companies. In light of the above,
2021 is set to post another increase in an-
nual take-up to over 800,000 sqm.
Figure 3: Vacancy Rate in % and Vacancy Figure 4: Prime and Average Rents in ¤/sqm
in 1,000 sqm
600 567 45
41.10
39.90
500 40
35.10
390 35
400 31.30
354
28.50 28.70
3.0% 304 30
26.30
300
246
25
2.0% 21.70
200 1.7%
1.5% 19.15
1.2% 20
16.30
100 15
0 10
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Vacancy Vacancy Rate Prime Rent Average Rent25
INVESTMENT
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Berlin | 2020 / 2021
Transaction Volume The second wave of the pandemic in Q4
2020 was unable to stop the end-of-year
2020 was an unusual year that started off
rally on the Berlin market. The dip in
on Berlin’s commercial real estate invest-
market activity due to high uncertainty at
ment market as strong as record-year
the start of the pandemic created excess
2019 ended, which was with €12.2bn in
demand that hit the market in H2 and
transaction volume. Then market activity
boosted deal activity. Commercial trans-
came to an abrupt halt. Investors, howev-
action volume came in 50% above the ten-
er, quickly regained confidence in the
year average despite the crisis.
market, pouring €8.5bn into the city’s
commercial assets by year end, putting
2020’s strong transaction results in sec-
ond place after 2019.
Fast Facts
Investment Berlin 2020 2019
Transaction Volume 8,549 million € 12,172 million €
Portfolio Transactions 38% 17%
Share by International Buyers 52% 59%
Share by International Sellers 29% 46%
Most Important Property Type Office 64% Office 79%
Prime Yield Office 2.80% 2.90%
Figure 5: Transaction Volume in million € Figure 6: Transaction Volume by Type of
Property 2020 share in %
14,000
14,000 12,172 Office 64%
12,000 12,172 Office 64%
12,000
10,000 Retail 16%
10,000 8,549
Retail 16%
7,522 8,549
8,000 6,959
8,000 7,522
6,959
6,000 4,900 Building Site 6%
6,000 4,900 Building Site 6%
4,000 Hotel 4%
4,000 Hotel 4%
Industrial &
2,000 Industrial
Logistics 3%&
2,000 Logistics 3%
Other 7%
0 Other 7%
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2016 2017 2018 2019 202026
Supply and Demand Aroundtown’s takeover of TLG was the
largest portfolio deal in 2020. Listed
Berlin | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Office assets accounted for two-thirds of
property companies ranked most active
total transaction volume in 2020 with
buy-side (€2.4bn) and sell-side (€2.5bn)
€5.5bn. Retail assets ranked second with
as a result. Property developers came in
€1.4bn, or a 16% market share. Commer-
second sell-side with €1.6bn, followed
cial land sites posted above-average
closely by asset and fund managers,
transaction volume at over €500m, se-
which posted just under €1.6bn. Asset
curing third place.
and fund managers purchased assets in
the same volume and ranked third buy-
Large landmark deals such as those in the
side just behind open-ended real estate
record year 2019 with more than half a
funds and special funds with €1.8bn.
billion euros were absent in 2020. How-
ever, three single-asset deals were
Property developers in Berlin particularly
signed for over €250m. One of the year’s
benefited from the fact that demand for
most pricey deals was the sale of the
large-scale adjoining office space, some-
western section of the office complex at
thing that is hard to come by in stock prop-
Humboldthain. A section of the Focus
erties, remained quite high among tenants
Teleport office center in Moabit and the
from the public sector despite the pan-
Südkreuz Offices in Schöneberg joined
demic. Interest in assets guaranteeing
the ranks towards the end of the year.
long-term secure cashflow is on the rise.
The sale of Spreeturm at Postbahnhof in
the Mediaspree submarket was another
high-volume deal that changed hands for
just shy of €200m.
Figure 7: Transaction Volume by Buyer Groups Figure 8: Transaction Volume by Seller Groups
in million €, share in % in million €, share in %
Listed
Listed
Property
Property 28%
28% Listed
Listed
Property
Property 29%
29%
Companies
Companies Companies
Companies
Open-ended
Open-endedReal
Real
Estate
Estate 20%
20% Property
Property
Developers
Developers 19%
19%
Funds/Special
Funds/Special
Funds
Funds
Asset
Asset
Managers/
Managers/ 19%
19% Asset
Asset
Managers/
Managers/ 18%
18%
Fund
FundManagers
Managers Fund
FundManagers
Managers
Property
Property
Developers
Developers 7%7% Open-ended
Open-endedReal
Real
Estate
Estate 9%9%
Funds/Special
Funds/Special
Funds
Funds
Insurance
Insurance
Companies
Companies 6%6% Private
Private
Investors/
Investors/ 5%5%
Family
Family
Offices
Offices
Other
Other
Investors
Investors 20%
20% Other
Other
Investors
Investors 20%
20%
00 1,000
1,000 2,000
2,000 3,000
3,000 00 1,000
1,000 2,000
2,000 3,000
3,00027
Yields Summary and Outlook
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Berlin | 2020 / 2021
Gross initial yields for core office assets Activity in 2020 has shown investor
dropped a further 10 bps yoy to 2.80%. confidence in the Berlin market remains
Increased demand for industrial and logis- strong, also and especially in times of
tics assets because of the pandemic trig- great uncertainty. Because we are still
gered strong yield compression of 50 bps. unable to predict the course of a pandem-
Retail assets in high-street locations saw ic that is still waging, we cannot realisti-
an increase of 10 bps in contrast. cally forecast transaction volume for 2021
with the necessary degree of precision.
The two property developments, IMPULS However, the development of promising
on Stresemannstraße and NEO on Knese- vaccines has been a major victory in the
beckstraße, both of which are under long- fight against Covid-19. As such, we have
term lease and were transacted within the reasonable cause to hope that life will
scope of forward deals, are representative soon be getting closer to normal and that
of the current trend in office yields. Fi- uncertainties around the market will
nancing for office investments with val- begin to fade. The development pipeline is
ue-add or opportunistic risk files, on the well-stocked at the moment and, com-
other hand, has become more expensive, bined with the benefits of the recent grand
leading to owners having to accept con- opening of Berlin’s BER airport, should
siderable price reductions of 10% to 15%. create the perfect conditions for even
While the parties involve were able to livelier market activity in 2021 with the
notarize the sale of the Goldstück office current year possibly even taking over
building in the Moabit district in 2020 at 2020's second-place ranking.
roughly €5,000 per sqm and an expected
yield of 5.60%, the sale of The Heinrich of-
fice complex in Schöneberg, which would
have likely been the largest single-asset
deal of the year, fell through as the parties
were unable to agree on the price.
The Berlin office leasing market remains robust despite
the impact of the pandemic. Rents continue to rise
and the boom on the investment market remains intact.
CONTACT
Margit Lippold Director | Research
+49 30 202993-43, margit.lippold@colliers.com28 Düsseldorf | 2020 / 2021
City Survey Germany | Colliers International DÜSSELDORF
CITY FACTS Düsseldorf Fast Facts
Population in 1,000 622 Office Leasing Düsseldorf 2020 Change year-on-year
Employees Paying Social Security Contributions 430 Office Space Take-up 248,000 sqm – 47.8%
in 1,000
Leasing Take-up 234,500 sqm – 50.2%
Unemployment Rate in % 8.0 Prime Rent 28.50 € / sqm 0.0%
Per Capita Disposable Income in € 28,528 Average Rent 16.30 € / sqm – 5.8%
Vacancy Rate 5.5% – 40 bp
Office Space Stock 7.86 million sqm 1.4%
Rents in € / sqm
Submarket Range of Rents
CBD 18.50 - 28.50
City Center 13.00 - 26.00
Harbour Area 16.50 - 25.00
Kennedydamm 16.50 - 25.00
Left of the Rhine 11.00 - 22.00
Düsseldorf-North 11.00 - 18.00
Airport City 14.50 - 17.50
Grafenberger Allee 12.00 - 14.50
City Center-East 10.00 - 16.00
Düsseldorf-South 9.00 - 12.0029
OFFICE LEASING
City Survey Germany | Colliers International
Düsseldorf | 2020 / 2021
Take-up Most space segments recorded signifi-
cant decreases in take-up compared
The Düsseldorf office leasing market
to the previous year, the sole exception
(municipal area only) recorded
being the segment of between 500 sqm
248,000 sqm in take-up in 2020, down
and 1,000 sqm, which posted an increase
48% as anticipated compared to the previ-
of roughly 5% yoy. The medium and
ous year’s all-time high of 475,000 sqm.
large-sized space segments saw take-up
These results can be attributed to to the
drop significantly compared to the previ-
restrictions imposed due to the pandemic.
ous year’s excellent result, as considera-
Looking at performance over the course
bly fewer leases were signed in 2020.
of the year, take-up was noticeably up in
Q3 compared to a very weak Q2 at around
In terms of location, the majority of
60,000 sqm. Activity dropped again
take-up tended to revolve around three
slightly in Q4 due to the stricter Covid-19
different submarkets. The City Center
restrictions implemented around that
East submarket led the pack with
time. Around 25% of 2020 annual take-up
41,000 sqm thanks a large-scale lease
can be attributed to the public sector.
signed by the financial administration
Consulting firms, which typically com-
office, closely followed by the Düsseldorf
prise one of the city’s strongest tenant
North and Linksrheinisch submarkets
groups, increased their activity noticeably
with roughly 39,000 sqm each.
in H2, putting them in second place with
an overall market share of 14%.
Figure 1: Office Space Take-up in 1,000 sqm Figure 2: Completion Volume in 1,000 sqm
500
500 471
471 150
150
400
400 120
120 111
111 114
114
359
359
322
322 323
323
92
92
86
86
300
300 90
90
235
235 73
73 70
70 69
69
200
200 60
60
100
100 30
30
77 1111 15
15 44 13
13
00 00
2016
2016 2017
2017 2018
2018 2019
2019 2020
2020 2018
2018 2019
2019 2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022
Leasing
Leasing Owner-occupiers
Owner-occupiers Completions
Completions thereof
thereofPre-let/Owner-occupied
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