TC Research with NASA Unified WRF and a Vision to Future Seamless Model - Dr. Tsengdar Lee NASA Earth Science Division
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TC Research with NASA Unified WRF
and a Vision to Future Seamless Model
Dr. Tsengdar Lee
NASA Earth Science Division
February 26, 2020
Presented to 2020 Tropical Cyclone
Operations and Research Forum
Acknowledgement:
• NASA Headquarters
–Jake Kaye
• NASA Goddard Space Flight Center NUWRF Team
– Jainn J. (Roger) Shi
– Scott Braun
– Zhining Tao
– Toshi Matsui
• NASA Goddard Space Flight Center LIS Team
– Jinwoong Yoo
– Joseph A. Santanello
– Sujay V. Kumar
– Patricia M. Lawston
• University of Georgia
– J. Marshall Shepherd
– Andrew Thomas
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 2
NASA Earth Science Division Elements
Flight (including Data Systems) Research & Analysis
• Develops, launches and operates NASA’s • Supports integrative research that advances
fleet of Earth-observing satellites, instruments knowledge of Earth as a system
and aircraft • Six focus areas plus field campaigns,
• Manages data systems to make data and modeling and scientific computing
information products freely and openly • Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems, Climate Variability and
Change, Water and Energy Cycle, Atmospheric
available Composition, Weather, Earth Surface and Interior
Technology Applied Sciences
• Develops and demonstrates technologies for • Develops, tests and supports innovative
future satellite and airborne missions: uses of Earth observations and scientific
• Instruments, Information Systems, knowledge to inform private and public
Components, InSpace Validation (CubeSat sector planning, decisions and actions
and SmallSat form factors) • Activities include disaster response
support and capacity building
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 3
NASA EARTH FLEET
LANDSAT-9 NISAR TROPICS (6) SENTINEL-6A/B
OPERATING & FUTURE THROUGH 2023
SWOT
TSIS-2 MAIA
PREFIRE (2) PACE
GEOCARB TEMPO INVEST/CUBESATS
GLIMR ICESAT-2 RAVAN
GRACE-FO (2) RainCube
CYGNSS (8) CSIM
NISTAR, EPIC (DSCOVR/NOAA) CubeRRT
ISS INSTRUMENTS SORCE TEMPEST-D
CIRiS
EMIT CLOUDSAT
HARP
CLARREO-PF TERRA
CTIM
GEDI AQUA HyTI
SAGE III
AURA SNoOPI
OCO-3
TSIS-1 CALIPSO NACHOS
ECOSTRESS GPM
LIS LANDSAT 7 (USGS)
LANDSAT 8 (USGS)
JPSS-2, 3 & 4 INSTRUMENTS (PRE) FORMULATION
OCO-2
OMPS-Limb IMPLEMENTATON
OSTM/JASON 2 (NOAA)
PRIMARY OPS
SMAP EXTENDED OPS
09.10.19
SUOMI NPP (NOAA)
4
INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
EARTH SCIENCE OPERATING AND FUTURE MISSIONS
EMIT (2021) TSIS-1 (2023)
ELC-2 ELC-3
AMS
ESP-3
ELC-4 Columbus EF JEMEF ELC-1
SAGE III (2020) OCO-3 (2022)
GEDI (2020)
ECOSTRESS (2020)
LIS (2020)
CLARREO-PF (2020)
External Logistics Carriers: ELC-1, ELC-2, ELC-3
External Stowage Platforms: ESP-3
(PRE) FORMULATION
Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer
Columbus External Payload Facility IMPLEMENTATON
Kibo External Payload Facility PRIMARY OPS
09.10.19 EXTENDED OPS
5
Why NASA does Modeling?
• Models codify our understanding of the Earth system.
• Model predictions turn our knowledge into useful information for management and
policy making purposes and create benefit to the society.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 6
GMAO Visualizes Smoke Transport from
Australian Fires
• The local impacts of the Australian bushfires have been devastating to IMPACT: NCCS resources enable the Global Modeling and
Assimilation Office (GMAO) to generate products like this one
property and life in the country, while producing extreme air quality
impacts throughout the region
• As smoke from the massive fires has interacted with global weather,
the transport of smoke plumes around the globe has accelerated into
the upper troposphere and even the lowermost stratosphere, leading
to long-range transport around the globe
• The smoke from these bushfires traveled across the Southern Ocean,
completing a global circumnavigation back around to Australia, and is
particularly pronounced across the southern Pacific Ocean out to
South America
• Global observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the NASA
NASA’s GEOS-FP data assimilation system captures the global
MODIS instruments on the Terra/Aqua satellites were assimilated to distribution of aerosols. Different aerosol species are highlighted by color,
constrain aerosols in the GEOS-FP system including dust (orange), sea-salt (blue), nitrates (pink) and carbonaceous
(red), with brighter regions corresponding to higher aerosol amounts.
• Active fires, also detected by the MODIS instruments, are used in a NASA's MODIS observations constrain regions with biomass burning as
fire-emissions module that is incorporated in GEOS-FP to constrain well as the aerosol optical depths in GEOS, capturing the prominent
bushfires in Australia and transport of emitted aerosols well downstream
the carbon aerosol emissions over the South Pacific Ocean.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 7
NASA’s Prior TC Research
• Conflicting views on role of the SAL pre- and post-genesis of tropical cyclones (Karyampudi
and Carlson 1988, Dunion and Velden 2004, Braun 2010, among others)
• Early dust-impact studies claimed negative impacts, but had unrealistic dust distributions
(Zhang et al. 2007, 2009). More recent work with more realistic dust suggest possible positive
impacts in some cases (Herbener et al. 2014)
• Is SAL dust the only aerosol affecting the development of hurricanes? How about other
aerosols, e.g. carbon and sea salt?
• Aerosol radiative and microphysical effects on weather systems have usually been considered
separately and independently and that there is a need to study them together given the
opposing microphysical and radiative effects aerosols have on deep warm-base convective
clouds (Rosenfeld et al. 2008, Shi et al. 2014)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 8
http://nuwrf.gsfc.nasa.gov National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 9
Aerosol-Microphysics-Radiation Schemes
Aerosol-Microphysics Coupling
(done in Goddard 5-class 3-ice MP scheme only)
• CCN based on Koehler curve (Koehler et al.,
2006; Andreae and Rosenfeld, 2008)
• IN based on Demott et al.(2010)
• Both CCN and IN are diagnostic parameters
only
Aerosol-Radiation Coupling
(done in Goddard LW/SW radiation schemes
only)
• Aerosols predicted from WRF-Chem/GOCART
are used to calculate radiative parameters to
account for the aerosol scattering and
absorption effects in the atmosphere.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 10Conclusions
• NU-WRF driven by GEOS-5 global aerosol analysis simulated the aerosol (dust)
distribution reasonably well compared to MODIS AOD
• Runs with all aerosols generally produced better 7-day track and intensity forecast
and aerosols have negative impact on the storm intensity
• Less cloud and precipitation were produced in the experiment with “all aerosols but
dust” in the last 72 hours of integration, with carbon and sea salt contributing most
• Diurnal cycle amplified by aerosols-radiative interaction, largest decrease in
hydrometeors with combined aerosol-cloud-radiative interaction
• Model and dropsonde data show evidences of the intrusion of dust into the storm
core
• This study shows that the inclusion of sea salt and carbon in the model could be
important for producing a more accurate prediction of hurricanes
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 11Recent Evolutions
Convective Process EXperiment
– Aerosol & Wind (CPEX-AW)
and Aeolus Cal/Val 2020
• Location Cape Verde
• DAWN**: (Doppler Aerosol WiNd lidar) is a pulsed laser, 2-micron, and
solid-state. DAWN can provide vertical profiles of u and v components of 3-D
wind below the aircraft.
• HALO**: (High Altitude Lidar Observatory) is a multi-function airborne lidar
to measure atmospheric H2O mixing ratios and aerosol/cloud/ocean optical
properties using the DIfferential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) and High Spectral
Resolution Lidar (HSRL) techniques, respectively.
• Dropsondes**
• APR-3: (Airborne Precipitation and Cloud Radar 3rd Generation) APR-3
provides Doppler radar measurements of clouds and precipitation at 3
frequencies (Ku-, Ka- and W-band)
• Instruments selected in ROSES 2019: Weather and Atmospheric Dynamics;
instruments funded by Planetary Boundary Layer activities
**Confirmed instrument funding for flights for summer 2020, also 100 flight
hours for the P3 aircraft observations
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 12Quantification of the Land Surface and Brown Ocean Influence on
Tropical Cyclone Intensification over Land:
A Case Study of TC Kelvin (2018)
1) to establish a modeling
framework with the ultimate goal
of understanding and quantifying
the ‘Brown Ocean’ effect
scientifically
2) to investigate TS Kelvin (2018) in
NW Australia as a case study to
understand the dominant factors
leading to its TC Maintenance
and Intensification (TCMI) using
state-of-the-art coupled models
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 13http://nuwrf.gsfc.nasa.gov National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 14
Modeling Framework and Scope
Land Surface Process Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling Tropical Meteorology & TCs Data Analysis
(image from wind.mit.edu)
Soil Texture/Soil Moisture Surface Flux Microphysics & Radiation Physics
(NU-WRF vs. WRF Tropical)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 15Simulated Storm Structure over Land
on 19 February at 12 UTC
Physics (NU-WRF vs. WRF Tropical)
Texture Soil Saturation
Surface Flux
Manipulation
February 2020
National Aeronautics and Space Administration 16Key Points from Surface Energy Budget Analysis
The larger solar radiation in the outer region with more cloud-free area can energize the lower
atmosphere during the daytime.
As it shifts into nighttime, atmospheric radiative cooling in the outer region along with the relatively
delayed cooling (or even warming) in the core region may speed up the convergence under the
eyewall area, intensifying the storm (e.g., Gray and Jacobson 1977; Craig 1996; Tang and Zhang
2016).
The diurnal cycle mechanism in TC development can be applied in the TCMI of TC Kelvin.
Daytime PBL “Blanket”
SW/LW
Nighttime PBL
TC Core
Clouds
“Falling Blanket” Moist air from
distant ocean
Rainfall in the center
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 17Summary
• Atmospheric moisture advection played a more important role in the
TCMI of Kelvin than enthalpy fluxes from the moist land surface.
• Although, the influences of land surface fluxes by soil moisture
permutations were discernable among the experimental cases.
• Further study is warranted with more clear BO effect cases.
• TCMI mechanisms may not be confined only to soil moisture/surface
flux condition.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 18Experimental GEOS5 Seamless Modeling System
• GEOS5 is currently running
at ~ 25 km grid
• One way Nested down to 6
km and then 2 km
• Dynamical regridding
• "scale aware" convection
and non-hydrostatic two-
moment cloud microphysics
National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 19Thank you! National Aeronautics and Space Administration February 2020 20
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