Tenth Annual Energy Paper - EYE ON THE MARKET ENERGY OUTLOOK 2020 - JP Morgan
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EYE ON THE MARKET • ENERGY OUTLOOK 2020 Tenth Annual Energy Paper
Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy paper: Front Cover
Stargazing. COVID lockdowns reduced global CO2 emissions to levels last seen over a decade ago.
While this decline is temporary, there’s still a lesson to be learned: an unsustainable halt in economic
activity and mobility was needed to make a material dent in global CO2 emissions. In our tenth
annual Eye on the Market energy paper, we take a look at when and how renewable energy
transitions might accomplish the same thing. A lot of ideas flicker in the distance, but few are capable
of being scaled and substantially commercialized in the foreseeable future.
Topics in this year’s paper include limits from de-carbonizing the grid alone; de-carbonization of steel
and other industrial products; political and physical renewable energy bottlenecks; the scope of
utility-scale energy storage, reforestation, and carbon sequestration required to make a difference;
the impact of ride-hailing on emissions, and the never-ending hope for a hydrogen economy. We
also review the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence, and whether
a supply shock or stranded asset risk is the primary reason for the lowest oil & gas valuations in 90
years. We conclude with an exhibit on Trump and the environment.
INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK,
N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTEDPreface: the large but temporary impact of COVID on global energy consumption
One of the worst pandemics in 100 years had an understandably large impact on energy consumption given
widespread adoption of lockdowns and other mobility restrictions. Estimates of real-time global CO2 emissions
showed a decline in May to levels last seen over a decade ago. However, this decline is almost certainly a
temporary one. High frequency measures of China coal consumption are already back to pre-pandemic levels,
the same is true for China oil demand as tankers line up on its eastern ports waiting to discharge oil for Chinese
refineries, and China air traffic is down only 30% vs January. In the US, electricity production never fell more
than 15% y/y during the pandemic, a full rebound is expected for US gasoline consumption by the second half
of the year, and the EIA expects global liquid fuels consumption to reach pre-COVID levels by June 2021. Even
so, there’s an energy lesson to be learned from the pandemic: an unsustainable halt in economic activity and
mobility was needed to make a material dent in global CO2 emissions. In our tenth annual energy paper, we
take a close look at when and how renewable energy transitions might accomplish the same thing.
Global daily CO2 emissions: history from 1970-2019,
with daily estimates for 2020, Million tonnes CO2 / day COVID update
110 The epicenter of the US pandemic has shifted from the
100 Northeast to several hotspot states spanning the Southern
90 US from coast to coast. Until recently, while hotspot
80 infections were surging, hospitalizations and deaths were
not. Over the last week, hospitalizations in hotspot states
70
have been rising as well. These outcomes are not a
60
complete surprise; many hotspot states experienced the
50 smallest declines in social distancing, measured by retail
40 and restaurant tracking. For more information on the virus,
30 vaccine development and market/economic impacts, see
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Jan 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 our virus analysis portal which can be found here.
Source: Quéré et al, "Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions
during the COVID-19 forced confinement" University of East Anglia. 2020.
China coal consumption China oil demand
Daily y/y % change Monthly y/y % change
60% 25%
20%
40%
15%
20% 10%
0% 5%
0%
-20%
-5%
-40% -10%
-60% -15%
2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: cqcoal, Wind. June 24, 2020 Source: Bloomberg. May 2020.
Air traffic at China’s 25 busiest airports World liquid fuels consumption
Total departures, thousands Million barrels per day
12 110
105
10
100
8
95
6
90
4
85
2 80
0 75
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21
Source: Flightradar24. June 23, 2020. Source: EIA Short-term Energy Outlook. June 2020.
1Executive Summary
When I began writing this piece ten years ago, I knew that I needed a technical advisor to shepherd me
through the real world complexity of energy transitions. Vaclav Smil is one of the world’s foremost experts
on such topics, and his guidance and insights have been invaluable. Over the last decade, Vaclav has
described renewable energy as the fourth great energy transition (after mastery of fire, a shift from foraging
to agriculture and domesticated animals, and a shift from biomass and human/animal labor to combustion
of fossil fuels). However, he has also stressed the decades required for past energy transitions to unfold,
illustrated in the first chart. In our discussions, he has also cautioned against embrace of faddish energy
solutions that sound great on paper but which are difficult to scale (some are illustrated on this year’s
cover), and has highlighted how energy efficiency gains are often offset by greater consumption. An
example of the latter: a 75% decline since 1960 in jet aircraft fuel consumption per passenger-kilometer
led to similar declines in ticket prices and a surge in ridership and related aircraft emissions.
The last three energy transitions took ~40 years to reach Global CO2 intensity declining, CO2 emissions rising
15%-20% shares, % of world primary energy consumption Tonnes of CO2 / thousand $2018 GDP Billion tonnes
50% 0.65 35
Coal, 1820 to 1900
0.60 CO2 intensity CO2 emissions
Oil, 1910 to 1990
40% 0.55 30
Natural gas, 1930 to 2010
Modern renewables, 2010 to 2020 0.50
30% 25
0.45
0.40
20% 20
0.35
0.30 15
10%
0.25
Years
0% 0.20 10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: V. Smil (pre-1965 data), BP (post-1965 data), JPMAM. 2020. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Conference Board. 2019.
With that introduction, here’s where we stand now. While global CO2 intensity has improved (the amount
of CO2 generated per unit of real economic growth has declined), the absolute level of global CO2 emissions
keeps going up. Recent emission increases mostly come from emerging economies, but remember the
reasons why. Developed countries have been de-industrializing for 25 years, which has shifted
carbon-intensive manufacturing of steel, cement, ammonia and plastics to the emerging world. In other
words, emerging countries now produce industrial goods they need on top of what they also produce for
the developed world. Any discussion of regional emissions and burdens should reflect these realities.
A shift in energy intensive manufacturing to the emerging Primary energy use, past and future
world, % of global production Mtoe, with projections based on IEA Stated Policies Scenario
100% China:2,044 Mtoe
Emerging economies 1,000
90%
Historical change 2008-2018
80% 800
70% Projected change 2018-2040
60% 600
50%
400
40%
30% 200
20%
10% 0
Developed economies EU Japan US Latin SE Asia Middle Africa China India
0% -200 America East
1995 2018 1998 2017 1998 2019 1998 2016 2005 2018
Manufacturing Ammonia Steel Cement Plastic
-400
Source: UN Dept. of Social and Economic Affairs, Worldsteel, PlasticsEurope,
USGS. 2019. Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook. 2019.
2To reinforce the point on transfer of production to the developing world, consider coal-fired electricity
generation. All the world’s countries except China reduced net coal-fired generation capacity by 8 GW
from January 2018 to June 2019. Over the same period, China increased such coal capacity by 43 GW,
has another 121 GW under construction and is financing a quarter of all new coal projects across Asia. In
other words, global reliance on cheap industrial and consumer goods exports from China comes at a
substantial environmental cost.
Here’s a simple exercise in CO2 emissions math. Forget about reducing emissions; let’s just think about
keeping emissions flat. Emerging economy emissions increased by 3% p.a. since 2007 while developed
world emissions declined by 0.7%. Let’s assume that emerging economy emissions grow at the same pace
and that the developed world has to emit less. To keep global emissions flat, the developed world
would need to reduce emissions by ~4% per year, which is 5x-6x faster than the current pace.
Whether that would be enough to keep oceans from continuing to heat up is unclear, but it would be a
move in the right direction.
Required emission decline in developed countries to keep Warming oceans
global CO2 emissions flat: 5-6x faster than current pace Zettajoules
3% 250
200 Ocean heat content change in upper 2000 m
2% vs 1981-2010 baseline (Cheng)
1% 150
Ocean heat content change in upper
0% 100 700 m vs 1955-2006 baseline (NOAA)
-1% 50
-2% 0
-3% -50
-4% -100
Emerging countries, Developed countries, Req. annual decline in -150
annual emissions annual emissions developed country 1958 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
changes, 2007-2018 changes, 2007-2018 emissions to keep Source: Cheng, L. et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences; Dahlman and
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2019. global emissions flat Lindsey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. February 2020.
3How might developed and developing countries accelerate the pace of de-carbonization? The
visual below shows how primary energy is used to generate electricity on the left; and on the right; the
composition of all energy consumed including electricity, broken down by end-user1.
Global electricity generation, and its contribution to total energy consumed by end-users
Electricity generation, quad. BTU Energy consumed by end-users, quad. BTU
Key Stats
250 250
Grey = energy losses from thermal conversion,
power plant consumption & transmission Renewable
Electricity is just 17% of global energy
consumed by end-users
200 200
Hydro 18% Renewables Nat gas Decarbonization via renewables
Wind/Solar 11% 30%
mostly confined to electricity, with
Nuclear
150 Nuclear 11% 150 some industrial use
Coal Renewables account for 30% of
100 Coal 100 electricity, and 11% of total energy
consumed by end-users
Coal 34% Nat gas
Petroleum
50 50
Petroleum Coal Fossil fuels used in electricity
Petroleum generation represent 30% of all fossil
Nat Gas
Nat Gas 23% Electricity Electricity fuel use
0 Petroleum
Primary ...is converted into 0 Industrial sector is by far the greatest
energy electricity Industrial Transport Resid/Comm consumer of energy
Source: Energy Information Administration, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2019. As per BP/EIA convention, primary energy for nuclear power is derived by
assuming 38% thermal conversion. For renewables, primary energy conversion only reflects transmission losses.
Key takeaways: so far, de-carbonization has mostly taken place on the grid. The 17% share of electricity
in global energy consumption limits de-carbonization potential from the grid alone; electricity and de-
carbonization will have to make substantial inroads in industrial use as well. While technologies are now
available to achieve partial electrification of certain industrial processes, evidence of such transitions are
very limited, even in jurisdictions with carbon taxes2. The electrification of industry must obey
chemical and physical laws as well as economic ones, which we discuss this year in Section 1.
On transportation, there’s a plan in many countries for rapid electric vehicle adoption, but the jury is out
regarding how fast it will occur. In 2019, the EV share of global light vehicle purchases was 2.5%, while
in the US the EV share was 1.9% (both shares have risen from ~1.2% in 2017); that sounds more like a
skirmish than a revolution to me.
And finally, the issue of carbon sequestration. After 20 years in development, carbon capture facilities only
store 0.1% of global emissions every year, and there isn’t even a viable blueprint yet for direct air capture
or other forms of CO2 mineralization at meaningful scales. Even something straightforward and beneficial
like reforestation is often magnified way beyond its actual potential, a topic we discuss this year as well.
1
Regionally, there are only modest differences in the charts above; see Appendix Table on page 34. Importantly,
electricity represents less than 25% of energy consumption in every major region.
2
There are roughly 60 carbon pricing initiatives around the world, covering 15% of global GHG emissions (note that
carbon taxes and cap/trade systems only apply to a subset of a country’s emissions; power and industry are usually
included, while transport, buildings, waste and agriculture are often not). Carbon prices per tonne vary widely: $2
(Japan, Mexico), $18 (California), $30 (EU), $50 (France), $120 (Sweden).
4With that background, here are the topics discussed in this year’s Eye on the Market energy
paper on its tenth anniversary.
Click here to read the full document
Table of Contents
1. The Ten Energy Commandments…………………………………………....................................................7
Ten energy and de-carbonization one-pagers to share with clients, friends and family. Topics include the
pace of renewable energy adoption, electrification of industry, utility-scale energy storage, transmission
bottlenecks, carbon capture, reforestation, ride-hailing, dietary choices and the “hydrogen economy”
2. Peak US energy independence? Pressures on the US shale industry intensify…………………………17
In 2019 the United States achieved its greatest level of energy independence on record, but financial and
environmental pressures may bring this independence era to an end
3. Mountains vs Molehills, 2020: de-carbonization of steel, and deep geothermal energy……………25
The latest installment in our series deconstructing de-carbonization ideas reported in the press
4. Oil & gas equity market underperformance: stranded asset risks or supply shock?............................29
Some believe that stranded asset risks explain the oil & gas sector’s dreadful performance over the last 5
years. A closer look suggests that loss of capital discipline and a supply shock are equally responsible
5. Maiming the Swamp: Trump and the Environment………………………………………………………....33
The latest tally of Trump administration rollbacks of environmental rules and regulations
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Links to select topics from prior Eye on the Market energy editions
Germany and Energiewende: A dispassionate assessment (2019)
Wildfires: anthropogenic climate change and risks for utilities in fire-prone areas (2019)
Electric vehicles: a 2% or a 20% solution? (2018)
High voltage direct current lines: China leads, US lags (2018)
The Dream Team rebuttal of the Jacobson “100% renewable electricity by 2050” plan (2018)
Better safe than sorry: sea level rise, coastal exposure and flood mitigation (2018)
Hydraulic fracturing: the latest from the EPA and some conflicting views from its Advisory Board (2017)
Forest biomass: not as green as you might think (2017)
The myth of carbon-free college campuses (2017)
Distributed solar power and utility billing changes which increase the cost (2016)
US hydropower: how much potential for expansion? (2016)
Nuclear power: skyrocketing costs in the developed world (2014 and 2015)
5Acknowledgements
Our energy Eye on the Market is overseen by Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty
of Environment at the University of Manitoba and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. His inter-
disciplinary research includes studies of energy systems (resources, conversions and impact), environmental
change (particularly global biogeochemical cycles), and the history of technical advances and interactions
among energy, environment, food, economy, and population. He is the author of more than 40 books (the
latest one, Growth, was published by the MIT Press in September 2019 and the next one, Numbers Don’t
Lie, is coming out in September 2020) and more than 400 papers on these subjects and has lectured in
North America, Europe, and Asia. In 2010, Foreign Policy magazine listed him among the 100 most
influential global thinkers. In 2015, he received the OPEC award for research, in 2019 American Energy
Society named him Energy Writer of the Year, and he is described by Bill Gates as his favorite author.
We also appreciate feedback we received on various sections from scientists and researchers at the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the Imperial College
of London Centre for Environmental Policy, the Rockefeller University Program for the Human Environment,
the Lund University Department of Human Ecology, Nanjing University, the Duke University Nicholas School
of the Environment and the University of California Riverside Earth and Planetary Sciences Department.
Acronyms
BTU British thermal unit; CCS carbon capture and storage; CHP Combined heat and power; CIS
Confederation of Independent States; CO2 carbon dioxide; CSP concentrated solar power; E&P exploration
and production; EIA Energy Information Agency; EPA Environmental Protection Agency; EV electric
vehicle; FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; FP flowback and produced water; GHG greenhouse
gas emissions; GJ gigajoule; GW gigawatt; GWPC Groundwater Protection Council; HVAC Heating,
ventilation and air conditioning; HVDC high voltage direct current; HY high yield; IAEE International
Association for Energy Economics; IEA International Energy Agency; IFPEN French Institute of Petroleum;
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency; ISO
independent system operator; ITC Investment Tax Credit; kg kilogram; km kilometer; kW kilowatt; kWh
kilowatt-hour; LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; LNG liquefied natural gas; m3 cubic meter;
MISO Midcontinent Independent System Operator; Mt metric tonnes; Mtoe million tons of oil equivalent;
MW megawatt; MWh megawatt-hour; NGL natural gas liquids; NREL National Renewable Energy Lab;
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; OSHA US Occupational Safety and
Health Administration; PEM Polymer electrolyte membrane; PPA Power Purchase Agreement; TWh
terawatt-hour; USGS US Geological Survey; VMT vehicle miles traveled
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