The attribution problem - How marketers assess ad performance in a fractured digital environment - Digiday

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The
attribution
problem
How marketers assess ad performance
in a fractured digital environment
What’s inside

3    Introduction

4    Attribution in its ideal form

5    Putting the last touch first

6    The first touch

7    The multi-touch compromise

8    The offline element

9    Metrics, metrics, metrics

10   The all-important KPI

12   The bottom line

                                     The attribution problem   2
Introduction
It seems obvious: Marketers                  constant access to scores of data signals     SURVEY SNAPSHOT
                                             that reveal all aspects of consumer
need to know which of their
                                             behavior—but organizing that data, and
marketing efforts actually                   making sense of consumers’ increasingly
worked. This is much easier                  non-linear paths to purchase, is anything     1. Last-touch attribution, which focuses
                                                                                              on which channel a customer was active
said than done. That’s why                   but straightforward. As a result, most
                                                                                              on directly before a conversion, is used by
                                             brands have only scratched the surface
advertising “attribution” has                when it comes to managing attribution
                                                                                              a plurality of marketers for both online (41
                                                                                              percent) and offline (31 percent) channels.
become increasingly vital to                 and identifying effective campaign tactics.      Nonetheless, the largest contingent of
their efforts.                                                                                respondents (44 percent) personally preferred
                                             We surveyed 197 brands and agencies,             the last-touch approach, which focuses on
                                                                                              when and where a customer was first exposed
Simply defined, attribution is the process   along with 44 publishers, in January 2018
                                                                                              to a brand.
of determining which advertisements          to explore how expectations vary when
and media channels are responsible           it comes to attribution. We also dove         2. Fifty-two percent of respondents said
for driving ROI. More and more,              into which KPIs marketers use to measure         that sales metrics were most effective in
organizations are challenging their          campaign success, and which strategies           evaluating campaign performance, while 36
marketing teams to provide consistent,       most effectively follow customers                percent pointed to traffic metrics such as
accurate metrics linked to meaningful        through their journeys across devices and        average time spent on a page. Nonetheless,
                                                                                              50 percent wanted a stronger focus on traffic
business results.                            channels. Finally, we interviewed industry
                                                                                              metrics.
                                             experts from Diane von Furstenberg,
But challenges abound. Today’s brands        Huge, Essence Global,                         3. Offline attribution remains crucial; only
and agencies market across an immense        Fusion Media Group and                           one percent of respondents said it wasn’t
number of channels and platforms,            Discover Financial.                              important to them.
both online and offline. This gives them
                                                                                           4. There’s a disconnect between brands and
                                                                                              agencies when it comes to identifying key
                                                                                              KPIs. A sizable 38 percent of marketers said they
                                                                                              don’t feel completely aligned with their partners
                                                                                              on delivering consistent and accurate metrics.
                                                                                                                            The attribution problem   3
Attribution in
its ideal form
Marketers can drill down into insights from attribution tools in multiple ways.
Some marketers work with web analytics platforms, some establish their own
internal attribution models and some choose to focus on a handful of key
metrics. A significant majority of respondents (63 percent) said that the ideal
state of attribution means being able to track customers throughout the full

                                                                                     63%
marketing funnel.

That’s impossible to do, of course, unless marketers can consistently track
the customer throughout their entire purchase journey, from building brand
awareness all the way down to conversion. Marketers would also need to know
what considerations customers take into account along the way and which of
those considerations ultimately led to a conversion. That’s a tall order.

                                                                                      of marketers say the
                                                                                  ideal state of attribution
                                                                                   means being able to track
                                                                                   customers throughout the
                                                                                     full marketing funnel

                                                                                                               The attribution problem   4
Putting the
last touch first
As much as they’d like to, most marketers     director of data science for the digital
                                                                                                       41%
aren’t able to track customers throughout     agency Huge. “The reason why so many
the entire funnel. According to our survey,   people prefer last-touch is just because
the “last-touch” approach is the most         it’s instant [...]That really misses the   of marketers are most commonly
widely-used attribution method. With the      whole cumulative impact of sequential
last-touch model, marketers simply take       messaging, multiple channels and all
                                                                                         using the “last-touch” method for
a look at which channel a customer was        virtual brand perceptions.”                     their online attribution
active on directly before a conversion. For
instance, if a user clicks on a Facebook      Actually, a lot of the marketers who
ad and immediately buys the product,          use last-touch attribution would prefer              -   B U T   -
that ad gets full credit for influencing      a different approach. When it comes
the purchase. All told, 41 percent of         to digital attribution strategy, most
respondents said that the last-touch          respondents (44 percent) said a first-
method was their most commonly used           touch attribution model was more useful
attribution approach for online channels.     for measuring digital campaigns. (The
A narrower plurality, 31 percent, said        last-touch model still won out when it                   44%
they most commonly used the last-touch        came to offline attribution, with a 43
method for offline attribution as well.       percent plurality.) Clearly, there’s a
                                              disconnect between what marketers
There’s a problem here: Many industry         are doing and what they think is most      say that a “first-touch” model
experts say the last touch approach can       effective. “We get addicted to fast         is more useful for measuring
be overly simplistic. “Last-touch, which      results,” said Horn.
                                                                                                 digital campaigns
is where most people are starting, is
wrong,” said Michael Horn, managing

                                                                                                                        The attribution problem   5
The first touch
As its name would suggest, the “first-touch” model
isolates when and where a customer was first
exposed to a brand.

 “That first click really shows you where your brand power is,” said
Conor Shea, who served as managing director of global marketing

                                                                             “
at Discover Financial until shortly after being interviewed for this
report. The first touch, in other words, is part of a potential customer’s
research process; it works as an affirmation tool to confirm or deny the
customer’s initial thoughts on a brand.
                                                                             [The first click] shows
“It shows where people are first having a touchpoint with your brand,”
said Shea. Needless to say, it’s important for brands to establish a
                                                                             where people are first
positive first connection with a lead; a bad impression may mean there’s     having a touchpoint with
no second chance for the brand to redeem itself.
                                                                             your brand.
                                                                             Conor Shea
                                                                             former managing director of global marketing,
                                                                             Discover Financial

                                                                                                                             The attribution problem   6
The multi-touch
compromise
A “multi-touch” model—one that analyzes          Either way, marketers need to gather
customer behavior throughout the journey         a hefty sample of conversions and
to purchase—provides a lot more data             impressions, and then they need to do a
than first-touch or last-touch alone. But it’s   whole lot of math. The process can take as
also more labor-intensive and takes much         long as two or three months—and it can
longer to produce actionable insights.           be as long as six months to a year before
                                                 marketers can actually implement the
First, marketers have to decide what,            findings into a future campaign. “Multi-
exactly, they’d like to study. Maybe             touch is never a fast solution,” said Huge’s
that means diving into how customers’            Horn.
interactions with display ads differed
from, or were complemented by, their             True. But it also provides for a much
interactions with search ads. Or maybe           richer data set.
it means formulating an algorithm
to determine what the incremental
contribution for each interaction was.

                                                                                                The attribution problem   7
The offline element
                                   However sophisticated and accurate              sales staff to capture personally identifying
                                   today’s digital attribution tools are, the      information,” said Michael Crooks, DVF’s
                                   offline element remains crucial. In fact,       senior director of global marketing.
                                   only one percent of respondents said
                                   that offline attribution wasn’t important       Of course, “offline” attribution often
                                   to them. Offline attribution relies on data     needs an online element. By collecting
  The biggest mistake              that marketers collect from non-digital         customers’ personal information in-store,

  a company can make               sources, often at the point of sale.            and then using that information to track
                                                                                   whether that customer saw a specific
  [...] is to underestimate        “The biggest mistake a company can              digital ad before walking through
                                   make [...] is to underestimate the value of     the doors, brands can develop an
  the value of offline             offline conversions and offline interaction,”   accurate sense of whether or not their
  conversions and                  said Felipe Araujo, senior director of          ads were effective.
                                   e-commerce at the fashion brand Diane
  offline interaction.             von Furstenberg (DVF).                          Plus, once they assemble a large database
                                                                                   of personally identifiable info, brands
  Felipe Araujo                    First and foremost, that means collecting       can target customers more precisely
  senior director of e-commerce,   basic sales data: what the customer             with future ads. Just as importantly, the
  Diane von Furstenberg            bought and where they bought it. But            information helps marketers build up
                                   brands often dive far deeper, collecting        an accurate picture of which types of
                                   information such as names, email                customers—based on age, gender and so
                                   addresses, phone numbers, social media          on—are most receptive to which ads.
                                   profiles or even demographic info such
                                   as age or gender. “It’s very important for

                                                                                                                               The attribution problem   8
Metrics, metrics, metrics
                                                                                                                               52%
Marketers use a variety of metrics    Nonetheless, 50 percent of              at last-touch attribution. Though
to measure the success of their       marketers most commonly use             the last-touch model tends to
campaigns, and those metrics are      traffic metrics to assess the           gloss over important elements of         said sales metrics such as
often the fundamental building        performance of their digital            an overall campaign, it does shed       conversion rates and return on
blocks of their attribution models.   campaigns. In fact, 50 percent said     some light on what ultimately
                                                                                                                     ad spend (ROAS) were the most
                                      that they wanted their brand or         drove sales—more so, in any
More than half of marketers (52       agency partner to place a stronger      event, than the first-touch model.    effective metrics when evaluating
percent) said that sales metrics      focus on traffic metrics, while only                                                 a campaign’s success
such as conversion rates and          17 percent of marketers wanted a        A multi-touch model, of course,
return on ad spend (ROAS)             stronger focus on sales metrics.        would incorporate a healthy
were the most effective when                                                  mix of sales and traffic metrics,
evaluating a campaign’s success.      Ultimately, marketers need to take      eliminating the blind spots that
                                      a hard look at what their goals         arise from focusing on just one
Traffic metrics (such as unique       are. If their primary aim is to build   or the other. But marketers often
visitors, click-through rates and     brand awareness, they’re likely to      don’t have the time to focus on
average time spent on a page)         find great value in the first-touch     everything at once.
came in second with 36 percent.       approach, which allows them to                                                           36%
It’s not hard to see why decent       zero in on the the moments when         That’s why it’s crucial for them
traffic metrics can be appealing:     customers first interact with the       to figure out what metrics they
Brands and agencies want to know      brand. Traffic metrics factor heavily   need to focus on before they craft
that their ads are actually being     into first-touch attribution models.    their attribution models. As it          said traffic metrics such
viewed. But marketers should be                                               stands, there’s often a discrepancy     as CTRs and average time on
wary of relying on those metrics      On the other hand, when brands          between where marketers see
                                                                              value and what they’re actually
                                                                                                                      page were the most effective
too heavily, since they don’t         want to focus on concrete sales
necessarily indicate consumer         metrics—on whether their ads            doing.                                     metrics when evaluting
purchases or even engagement          drove conversions or overall ROI—                                                    campaign success
with the brand.                       it doesn’t hurt to take a close look

                                                                                                                                      The attribution problem   9
The all-important KPI
Brands and agencies don’t                   “In defining KPI, we say, ‘Let’s figure
                                            out the one most important thing that
always see eye-to-eye on
                                            we’re trying to accomplish with this
which metrics should                        campaign,’” said DVF’s Felipe Araujo.
be factored into their                      “‘Is this a campaign to drive brand
attribution models.                         awareness? To drive traffic? To do X?’
                                            And then we measure that.”

Indeed, a sizable 38 percent of marketers
said they don’t feel completely aligned
                                            Anant Mathur, EVP and global head of
                                            analytics at Essence Global, had similar
                                            advice. “People are often at loggerheads
                                                                                                 38%
with their brand or agency partner          in terms of the KPI that they are looking
when it comes to delivering consistent      at,” he said. “The first order, then, is to
and accurate metrics.                       get them to focus on what actually drives
                                            economic value.” For a news site, for
But before brands and agencies can          instance, a “sale” means driving up ad               of marketers say they
identify their ideal attribution models,    revenue by getting people to engage
first they need to isolate which KPI they
                                                                                          don’t feel completely aligned
                                            with your content; the site visit is the
should focus on. That’s not always easy     conversion event. But if you’re on the
                                                                                          with their brand or agency partner
to figure out, but it’s monumentally        brand side of that equation, selling,            when it comes to delivering
important to try.                           say, handbags, it’ll probably make             consistent and accurate metrics
                                            more sense to focus on traditional sales
                                            metrics.

                                                                                                                       The attribution problem   10
It can be tough, of course, to stick with just   So which KPIs are actually
one KPI. But trying to do so “can be helpful
                                                 being used?
at the briefing stage,” said Lindsey Eckert,
vp of media strategy at Fusion Media             A slim plurality of marketers (31 percent)
Group, which owns sites such as The              said that, if they could align with their
Onion and Deadspin. Brands, agencies,            brand or agency partners on a single
and even publishers must be aligned on           KPI, their attribution models would best
their ultimate objectives if they want their     be served by a stronger focus on sales

                                                                                                “
campaigns to succeed.                            metrics like conversions and ROAS. But a
                                                 nearly identical number of respondents
“When we get our RFPs in, there are              (30 percent) said that bounce rate was the
usually several different metrics,” said         most important KPI to focus on. Coming
Eckert. “When we’re briefing our creative        in at a close third was click-through rate
                                                                                                When we get our RFPs in,
teams, we really have to narrow it down to       (27 percent). That’s not exactly a runaway
the one key thing, the one key takeaway          victory for any individual choice.             there are usually several
that we need to communicate.”
                                                 In addition, most marketers weren’t
                                                                                                different metrics. When we’re
When marketers fail to identify a clearly-       exactly confident about what they              briefing our creative teams,
defined KPI at the outset of a campaign,         wanted out of their KPIs in the first place.
they wind up being stuck with KPIs that are      A whopping 82 percent cited the need           we really have to narrow it
irrelevant to their business models. Just as     to organize data as the biggest reason
                                                                                                down to the one key thing,
damaging, it becomes nearly impossible           why they’re not using their preferred KPIs
to formulate an attribution model that           more consistently. Marketers may want          the one key takeaway that
effectively identifies the successes and
failures of their campaigns. Without
                                                 to get into the weeds, but they don’t
                                                 necessarily have the time or resources
                                                                                                we need to communicate.”
narrowing things down to one KPI at the          to make it a reality.
outset, marketers will leave themselves                                                         Lindsey Eckert
scrambling to overanalyze every                                                                 vp of media strategy,
                                                                                                Fusion Media Group
conceivable data point, without a clear
idea of what they’re actually trying to
get from the data.

                                                                                                                        The attribution problem   11
The bottom line
Brands, agencies and even publishers are struggling to identify which metrics should be factored into effective
attribution models. And frequently enough, they disagree with each other on the best approach. So at the
beginning of any given campaign, marketers would be wise to align with their partners on a clearly defined KPI.
First, they’ll need to take a holistic look at their business models and figure out which goals are most important.

Here are some best practices to help you set more accurate
and effective goals for future campaigns:

                1                                    2                                     3                                      4                               5
  The last-touch approach can            Marketers should place a               A multi-touch attribution                Don’t neglect offline         Marketers should agree
   be useful when analyzing               heavy emphasis on first-              model can be extremely                    attribution: It’s still     with their partners on one
    basic sales metrics, but               touch attribution when            time-consuming to assemble,                extremely important,          clearly defined KPI at the
    it often omits important             they’re focusing on brand            but it’s worth the investment           especially when combined       beginning of any campaign.
     information. Marketers                     awareness.                        if marketers have the                    with online data.
    should rarely base their                                                  necessary resources: It offers
   entire attribution strategy                                                 them the richest possible
      around the last-touch                                                              data set.
             model.

                                                                              Only by establishing clearly-defined objectives at the outset can marketers hope to accurately assess
                                                                              the success or failure of a campaign through any of their attribution efforts. Then, armed with the
                                                                              attribution model that best suits their campaign goals, marketers will gain a greater understanding
                                                                              of their customers, honing and refining their process and results for future campaigns.

                                                                                                                That’s a surefire recipe for maximizing ROI.

                                                                                                                                                           The attribution problem   12
About Bazaarvoice
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