The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania

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The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania
Tasmania Delivers...

                The dairy industry
                      in Tasmania
                     A guide for investors
                                  January 2019

www.cg.tas.gov.au
The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania
The dairy industry in Tasmania                                                                                                                                               A guide for investors

  ii                                                                                                                                                                                                           1

2             Tasmania – a unique island of opportunity

4             The Tasmanian dairy industry – history

5             The Tasmanian dairy industry – the industry today

10            Value proposition

18            Indicative costs of buying a dairy farm in Tasmania

26            Dairy conversion opportunities

32            Investment regulations and business entry
                                                                               Key reasons for investing in the          »» increasing global demand for dairy       »» opportunity to capitalise on climate
                                                                               Tasmanian dairy industry:                    products                                     change driving Australian milk
33            Assistance for investors
                                                                               »» significant scope for profitable       »» low production costs through                 production to cooler, wetter parts
                                                                                  expansion of low-cost milk                                                             of the country
                                                                                                                            pasture-based farming
                                                                                  production could see Tasmania’s
                                                                                                                         »» highly competitive land prices – land    »» forecasts for a climate-changed
              Contacts                                                            milk output almost double to                                                           world point to a long term and
                                                                                                                            values in Tasmania are lower than
                                                                                  1.5 billion litres per year                                                            profitable future for the Tasmanian
                                                                                                                            many other Australian states and
                                                                               »» a growing industry – Tasmanian milk       dairying areas in New Zealand, with
                                                                                                                                                                         dairy industry3
                                                                                  production increased by around 38         the north west, north east, Upper        »» first world infrastructure and a
                                                                                  per cent over the past 10 years1          Derwent Valley and Meander Valley            well-organised, cohesive dairy
This marketing document was developed by Dairy Tas in collaboration with the
Office of the Coordinator-General and the Department of State Growth.          »» substantial factory investment has        regions all offering opportunities for       industry sector with clear,
                                                                                  occurred, providing major support         investment                                   demonstrated capability that
                                                                                                                                                                         includes multinational, national and
Disclaimer:                                                                       for new dairy farm investment          »» a higher return on total assets than         Tasmanian dairy manufacturing
The information in this paper has been prepared with care, but no warranty
is given as to the accuracy of the information, or for any advice given, or
                                                                               »» Tasmania’s environmental                  other Australian states, increasing
                                                                                                                                                                         companies operating both large and
                                                                                  advantages – comparative natural          from 3.6 per cent to 5.1 per cent
for omissions from this paper. Readers rely on the information at their own                                                                                              small processors.
risk and should seek their own independent legal and financial advice.            water advantage, irrigation               YE 16/172
                                                                                  investments, absence of major
© State of Tasmania January 2019.                                                 animal diseases and an ideal climate
                                                                                  for pasture-based dairy production
Images courtesy of DairyTas, Chris Crerar, Simon de Salis, Tony Crehan,
Mitch Osborne, Adam Gibson, Biosecurity Tasmania, Peter Mathews,               »» international and national market
Clint & Bethanie Creative, Bjorn Qarfordt - DeLaval, Tourism Tasmania and         recognition of the quality of
Rob Burnett                                                                       Tasmanian dairy products

                                                                                                                                                                     1. Dairy Tasmania milk produce and price
                                                                                                                                                                        YE Dec 2018
                                                                                                                                                                     2. Dairy Australia Situation and Outlook
                                                                                                                                                                        October 2018 – provisional data
                                                                                                                                                                     3. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC,
                                                                                                                                                                        Climate Futures for Tasmania, Impacts on
                                                                                                                                                                        Agriculture http://acecrc.org.au/
                                                                                                                                                                        climate-futures-for-tasmania/
The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania
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               Tasmania – a unique island of opportunity
                                                                                                                                 Tasmania at a glance
                                                                                                                                 Location                  Located broadly at latitude 41-42° south and longitude 144° east, and separated from the
                                                                                                                                                           Australian continent by Bass Strait. Tasmania is a group of over 300 islands, with the main island
                                                                                                                                                           being 315 km (180 miles) from west to east, and 286 km (175 miles) north to south.
                                                                                                                                 Climate                   Tasmania has a mild, temperate maritime climate with four distinct seasons, making it the ideal
                                                                                                                                                           location for production of premium food and wine. In summer (December to February), the average
                                                                                                                                                           maximum temperature is 21° Celsius (70° Fahrenheit). In winter (June to August), the average
                                                                                                                                                           maximum is 12° Celsius (52° Fahrenheit) and the average minimum is 4° Celsius (40° Fahrenheit).
                                                                                                                                 Government                Tasmania is a parliamentary democracy governed according to the principles of the
                                                                                                                                                           Westminster System. Since 1901, Tasmania has been a state of the Commonwealth of Australia.
                                                                                                                                 Population                At December 2017, the estimated resident population of Tasmania was 528 097.
                                                                                                                                 Capital city              The capital of Tasmania is the city of Hobart. The greater Hobart area has a population of
                                                                                                                                                           approximately 229 088 people.
                                                                                                                                 Major industries          The major industries are food and agriculture (including dairy, wine, salmon, fruit, vegetables
                                                                                                                                                           and red meat), tourism, mining and mineral processing, forestry and related products, specialist
                                                                                                                                                           manufacturing, research and science, Antarctic–related industries, building and construction,
                                                                                                                                                           renewable energy, and information and communications technology.
                                                                                                                                 Community and lifestyle   Tasmania’s rich natural heritage, its diverse range of arts and cultural experiences, its lifestyle
                                                                                                                                                           opportunities and its public spaces are advantages that help to make the state one of the
                                                                                                                                                           world’s most liveable places.
                                                                                                                                 History and heritage      Aboriginal people are thought to have first moved onto the island 30 000 years ago, during an
                                                                                                                                                           ice age which exposed a land bridge between the island and mainland Australia. Europeans from
                                                                                                                                                           the British Isles established a penal colony in 1803. During this time, the island was called
                                                                                                                                                           Van Dieman’s Land. The transportation of convicts ended in 1853 and the island was renamed
                                                                                                                                                           Tasmania in 1856.

                                                                                                                                                                                         King Island
Tasmania’s temperate climate, fertile       approximately one quarter the size         underpinned by reliable rainfall and
soils, reliable rainfall and sunshine all   of its neighbouring Australian state,      increasing irrigation infrastructure.                                                                                                       Flinders Island
ensure excellent growing conditions         Victoria. Tasmania is similar in size to   This translates to lower costs of
for lush pasture, underpinning the          Ireland and Sri Lanka, and half the        production, considerable growth
production of premium quality dairy         size of Fujian Province in China.          potential and a more reliable milk                                                                        •
                                                                                                                                                                                           Stanley
products. Tasmanian dairy cows are                                                     supply, when compared with many
                                            The dairy industry is the largest                                                                                                                                •
housed outside all year round, grazing                                                 dairy districts both in Australia                                                                                   Burnie
                                            sector of Tasmania’s agricultural                                                                                                                                        •
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Devonport
on grass and clover, while enjoying                                                    and internationally.                                                                                                                      •
                                            industry and a significant contributor                                                                                                                                           Launceston
some of the cleanest air in the world.
                                            to the Tasmanian economy. It offers a      The dairy industry is a priority sector
Discovered by Dutch explorer Abel           number of investment opportunities,        with excellent growth prospects                                                                                      Tasmania                         Bicheno •

Tasman in 1642, Tasmania is Australia‘s     including large-scale pasture-based        and the Tasmanian Government                                                                                       • Queenstown                    Swansea •
                                                                                                                                                                                                       • Strahan
only island state and is separated from     milk production, specialty cheese          encourages investment in milk
mainland Australia by Bass Strait,          manufacture and large-scale dairy          production (farming) and value adding
a 240 kilometre stretch of water.           commodity processing.                      within the state.                                                                                                                     Hobart •

The state’s area is 68 330 square           Tasmanian dairy farmers benefit
kilometres with 3 300 kilometres            from a sustainable, low-cost,                                                                                        AUSTRALIA

of coastline, making Tasmania               pasture-based production system,
The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania
The dairy industry in Tasmania                                                                                                                                                                                                    A guide for investors

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               The Tasmanian dairy industry – history                                                                                       The Tasmanian dairy industry – the industry today

Since European settlement in 1788,           In addition to the dairy cooperatives, up   The early 1970s saw the merger of        Today’s dairy farms are usually            Between 2012 and 2014, processing           The National Dairy Farmer Survey
the production of milk has been a key        to 20 private factories operated in the     Tasmanian dairy cooperatives, with       large–scale, capital–intensive             capability grew by 300 million litres due   measures industry confidence as the
industry within Australia’s agriculture      Circular Head region at various times       Table Cape and Duck River being the      operations using the latest technology     to investment in new factories by Lion      proportion of farmers who are positive
sector. From the original four cows and      from 1893.                                  first to form United Milk Products.      to produce whole milk with                 in Burnie and the Murray Goulburn           about the future of the industry.
one bull brought out with the First Fleet,                                               In 1981, United Milk Products            approximately three per cent of farms      Co-operative in Smithton. Over the          The survey results highlight the very
                                             In the early 20th Century, the
the industry continued to expand as                                                      amalgamated with north western and       using automated milking systems.           next 10 years, milk production has the      different levels of confidence between
                                             introduction of refrigeration allowed
more parts of Australia were explored.                                                   north eastern cooperatives to form       Cows are milked up to twice daily, in      potential to grow from 913 million litres   dairying regions. Early 2018 results
                                             dairy products to be transported to
                                                                                         United Milk Tasmania (UMT).              large dairy sheds which can milk over      per year in 2016–17 to around               indicate that 74 per cent of Tasmanian
Dairying in Tasmania began with              markets, and native pastures were
                                                                                                                                  250 cows per hour. Alternative systems     1.5 billion litres per year, dependent      dairy farmers are more positive
farmers converting thickly wooded            replaced with more productive exotic        Up until 1997, UMT operated three
                                                                                                                                  operate that allow multiple herds to       on continued investment in additional       towards their own business future than
landscapes to farming land. In the early     species. This enabled farmers to            main production sites at Wynyard
                                                                                                                                  be milked through single dairy sheds.      processing capacity and farm                any other state in Australia5.
to mid-1800s, Tasmanian farmers milked       increase stocking rates, resulting in a     (cheese), East Devonport (milk
                                                                                                                                  Other options are milking three times      conversion.
a few cows for their own use, with           dramatic increase in milk production        powders and butter) and Legerwood                                                                                               More farms in Tasmania are increasing
                                                                                                                                  every two days, or once per day.
any surplus sold for cash or exchange        from the available land.                    (milk powder). A new site was built at                                              The major dairy processing companies        their herd size, staff and supplementary
of other commodities. It wasn’t until                                                    Spreyton in 1997 and the Legerwood       Deregulation of the Australian industry    now operating in Tasmania are               feed levels compared with 12 months
                                             Another factor that encouraged rapid
Tasmania’s first cooperatively owned                                                     and East Devonport operations            in 2000 and a growing export focus,        Fonterra, Saputo, Lion and Mondel z         ago. The number of farms that are
                                             growth in the dairy industry was the
butter factory, the Table Cape Butter                                                    were closed soon after. Bonlac Foods     have seen production increase in the       (Cadbury). Others include Ashgrove          undergoing this level of expansion is
                                             introduction of the milking machine
and Bacon Factory, was established in                                                    took over UMT in the late 1990s          more temperate, higher-rainfall areas      Cheese, Dutch Mill, Pyengana Cheese,        considerably higher than counterparts
                                             into Australia. In the late 1930s, once
Wynyard in 1892 that the commercial                                                      and subsequently, the world’s largest    of Australia, like Tasmania, that are      Westhaven Dairy, Bruny Island Cheese,       from other Australian dairy regions
                                             electricity became more readily
dairy industry began to grow.                                                            dairy exporter Fonterra acquired the     more suited to low-cost, pasture-based     Wicked Cheese Co, Grandvewe and             (38 per cent national)6.
                                             available to farms, milking by machine
                                                                                         operation in 2004.                       dairy farming.                             Betta Milk.
The Table Cape cooperative, modelled         was adopted as the norm and farmers
on a successful Victorian operation,         were able to increase their herd sizes as                                            Over recent years there has also been      Dairy is now Tasmania’s biggest
was closely followed by others including     the machines reduced the time needed                                                 an increase in the number of small-scale   agricultural industry. In 2016-17,
the North West Cooperative Dairy             to milk their cows.                                                                  dairy and cheese-making operations         the estimated value of farm milk
Company, the Duck River Cooperative                                                                                               in Tasmania, as more operators move        production was around $325 million.
Butter and Bacon Factory in Smithton,                                                                                             into adding value to their business.       The value of packed and processed
and the Ringarooma Cooperative in the                                                                                                                                        products in 2016–17 was approximately
north east.                                                                                                                                                                  $474 million4.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4. DPIPWE, Dairy Industry Scorecard, 2016-17.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5. Dairy Australia Situation and Outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            October 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6. Dairy Australia Situation and Outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            June 2018
The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania
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Prime dairy regions

      King Island

   Far
   North West                                          North East
                     North West
                                           Central North
  42˚S

                                           South

Table 1: Tasmanian dairy farms by region                                        Dairy industry summary7                  Tasmanian milk production (ML) and milk price ($/kg milk solids) 2008-18
Council area                                                 Region     Farms   »» 412 farms                                         1000                                                                                                                                          $8.00
Circular Head                              Far North West Region          141
                                                                                »» 140 000 cows                                          900                                                                                       891.4    883
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       835.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       913
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $7.00
Meander Valley                               Central North Region          70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           810
Dorset                                             North East Region       55   »» Average of 336 cows per farm                          800                                                792
                                                                                                                                                                                                          765             $6.96                                                    $6.00
                                                                                                                                                    709                         726                                                $6.33
Wynyard-Waratah                                North West Region           32   »» 1 500 people employed on farms                        700                      677                                                                                                 $5.91

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Milk price, $/kg milksolids
                                                                                                                                                   $5.51                        $5.60                                                       $5.61
Central Coast                                  North West Region           27                                                                                                                                                                                                      $5.00

                                                                                                                       Milk production
                                                                                                                                         600                                                                                                           $5.20
Kentish                                        North West Region           19   »» 913 million litres of milk in                                                                           $5.19         $5.16
                                                                                                                                                                 $4.64
                                                                                    2017–18                                              500                                                                                                                                       $4.00
King Island                                               King Island      10
Burnie                                         North West Region           10   »» Average annual growth in                              400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $3.00
Break O Day                                        North East Region       9
                                                                                    10 years of three per cent
                                                                                                                                         300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $2.00
Northern Midlands                            Central North Region          9    »» 9.3 per cent of national                              200
West Tamar                                   Central North Region          9        production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $1.00
                                                                                                                                         100
Central Highlands                                   Southern Region        5
                                                                                »» Total value of dairy farm gate
Latrobe                                        North West Region           5                                                               0                                                                                                                                       $0.00
                                                                                    income $386m 2015–16
                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                                 20

                                                                                                                                                                                20

                                                                                                                                                                                           20

                                                                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20
Launceston                                   Central North Region          3

                                                                                                                                                                                  10

                                                                                                                                                                                             11

                                                                                                                                                                                                            12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            13

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                                                                                                                                                     08

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                                                                                                                                                                                                –

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                                                                                                                                                                                     –
                                                                                                                                                                     –1
                                                                                                                                                        –9

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                                                                                                                                                                                      11
                                                                                                                                                                       0
Huon Valley                                         Southern Region        4
                                                                                                                                                   Production, million litres              Milk price, $/kg milk solids
New Norfolk                                         Southern Region        2
Sorell                                              Southern Region        1                                                                   Source: DairyTas 2018, based on data from Dairy Australia.

Southern Midlands                                   Southern Region        1
Total farms                                                               412

Source: TDIA dairy licence data June 2018                                       7. DairyTas and Dairy Australia data
The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania
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Major Investors:                            Betta Milk                                  Fonterra                                    Lion                                      Mondelēz (Cadbury)                          Saputo
                                            Betta Milk Co-op Society Ltd produces       Fonterra is a global dairy company          Lion is a wholly owned subsidiary         Mondel z owns and operates Cadbury,         Saputo is a multinational dairy company
Ashgrove
                                            fresh milk products (milk, cream and        involved in large-scale milk procurement,   of Kirin Holdings. Lion’s Tasmanian       a global confectionery business.            based in Canada, which has operated
Ashgrove Cheese is Tasmania's and one
                                            custard) and has around 30 per cent of      processing, marketing and management.       interests include cheese and drinking     Mondel z’s operation includes a milk        a milk powder plant since 2018 in
of Australia's largest family owned and
                                            the local market for those products.        Fonterra is the largest processor           milk production, and a brewery. The       drying plant in the state’s north west at   Smithton, north-west Tasmania.
operated dairy processors. Under the
                                            It uses about two per cent of Tasmania’s    of milk in the world, with a supply         dairy portfolio includes a number of      Burnie and a chocolate manufacturing        The plant is designed to manufacture
Ashgrove Tasmanian Farm brand they
                                            total milk production but does not          chain spanning over 140 countries           market-leading brands across the milk,    plant in the south at Claremont.            high-specification milk powders and
produce fresh milk, cheese, cream
                                            buy milk directly from farms. It has a      and producing more than two million         cheese and dairy product categories.                                                  associated products, with a capacity
and butter.                                                                                                                                                                   Mondel z uses around eight per cent of
                                            processing facility at Burnie and in 2017   tonnes of dairy ingredients, valued-                                                                                              of approximately 250-300 million litres
                                                                                                                                    Lion processes around 14 per cent         Tasmania’s total milk supply.
The dairy portfolio also includes the       won a gold medal for its full cream         added and specialty ingredients, and                                                                                              per year.
                                                                                                                                    of the total Tasmanian milk production    www.cadbury.com.au
Elizabeth Town Creamery brand which         milk product at the Dairy Industry of       consumer products every year.                                                                                                     www.saputo.com
                                                                                                                                    and recently invested over $150 million   www.mondelezinternational.com.au
specialises in the selection, packing and   Australia awards.
                                                                                        In Australia, Fonterra operates seven       to consolidate Australian specialty
distribution of portion control cheese.     www.bettamilk.com.au
                                                                                        manufacturing sites, including two in       cheese production at Burnie and
The Ashgrove processing facility is                                                     Tasmania at Wynyard and Spreyton.           to upgrade its award-winning King
                                            Dutch Mill
surrounded by the Ashgrove Dairy                                                        In Tasmania, Fonterra has more              Island factory.
                                            Dutch Mill is one of Thailand’s largest
Farm at Elizabeth Town in Northern                                                      than 200 suppliers and processes            www.lionco.com
                                            dairy companies. Since 2017, it has
Tasmania, which includes a popular                                                      approximately 55 per cent of the state’s    www.kirinholdings.co.jp
                                            owned the UHT milk processing
on–site retail factory and farm store.                                                  milk, producing approximately 60 000
                                            factory at Edith Creek in north-west
In 2017, the Ashgrove factory was                                                       tonnes of cheese, milk powders, butter
                                            Tasmania that was formerly operated
certified by NASAA Organic: Australian                                                  and lactose.
                                            by Murray Goulburn.
and International Organic Certifier                                                     www.fonterra.com
                                            www.dutchmillinternational.com
to process organic milk into premium
value Tasmanian organic dairy products.
www.ashgrovecheese.com.au
The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania
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               Value proposition
                                                                                                                                            Water availability                                  The Australian and Tasmanian                Farm irrigation
                                                                                                                                            A key component of sustainable                      Governments have committed $220             Tasmanian dairy farmers are increasingly
                                                                                                                                            agriculture is the availability of reliable         million to develop irrigation schemes       using irrigation to supplement rainfall and
                                                                                                                                            water supply for irrigation. Dairy stocking         with at least 95 per cent reliability of    maintain pasture production through
                                                                                                                                            rates are directly linked to the availability       water supply, in partnership with local     summer and early autumn. Mostly
                                                                                                                                            of water and Tasmania’s most significant            communities around the state.               this is based on farm schemes utilising
                                                                                                                                            natural resource advantage is water.                Private sector investment of around         winter storage or direct take from rivers
                                                                                                                                                                                                $93 million is also anticipated, which      and, in some areas, groundwater also
                                                                                                                                            Tasmania does not have the water
                                                                                                                                                                                                will double the amount of irrigable land    contributes to the total supply.
                                                                                                                                            supply constraints experienced in
                                                                                                                                            other parts of Australia and much                   available for production purposes.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Irrigation water requirements
                                                                                                                                            of the world. Tasmania represents                   A comprehensive list of all current         Irrigation water requirements depend on
                                                                                                                                            one per cent of Australia's land mass,              Tasmanian irrigation projects can           soil type, climate, soil fertility and pasture
                                                                                                                                            yet has 27 per cent of Australia's                  be found at:                                species. The estimated annual irrigation
                                                                                                                                            freshwater dam storage capacity.                    www.tasmanianirrigation.com.au              requirements for well-managed perennial
                                                                                                                                            An ongoing priority in Tasmania is the                                                          ryegrass dairy pastures are shown in the
                                                                                                                                            completion of major irrigation schemes,                                                         table below. Irrigation of well-managed
                                                                                                                                            with the potential to double the water                                                          dairy pasture with high soil fertility is likely
                                                                                                                                            available for irrigation.                                                                       to increase pasture utilisation by three
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            to four tonnes of drymatter per hectare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            per year, and this will typically require
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            around four megalitres per hectare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            per year of water to be applied8.

Tasmania is in a unique position within                                                                                                     Table 2: Indicative irrigation requirements
Australia for increased investment in                  King Island                                            Flinders Island
dairy farming. The state’s expanding                                                                                                         Region                                          Location           Irrigation requirement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (ML/ha/year)
milk processing capacity offers
opportunities and Tasmania’s climate                800–1000                                                              700–800            North West                                         Burnie                             4.6
and water availability ensure consistent                                                                                                                                             Currie (King Is.)                                4.0
and predictable production rates.
                                                                                                                                                                                            Mawbanna                                  2.6
Climate                                                     Smithton                                                            800                                                             Redpa                                 2.7
Tasmania has an optimal climate for                                 Wynyard
                                                                                                              George Town
pasture-based dairying. Tasmania                                        0 Burnie                                                                                                              Sheffield                               4.2
                                                                    140    Devonport                              10 Scottsdale
                                                                                                                    0
has a temperate climate, fertile soils,                                          1600                                 0
                                                                                                               Launceston                                                                    Smithton                                 3.0
reliable rainfall and plenty of sunshine,                                            1800
                                                                           000                          Deloraine
                                                                                              1200

all of which ensure excellent growing                                  2                                             800
                                                                                 0                                                                                                        Woolnorth                                   3.9
conditions for lush pastures that                                          220                                                    Bicheno
                                                                                  2400

                                                                                                                   600
                                                                                                 1000

support the production of premium                                                                                      Campbell Town                                                         Wynyard                                  3.9
quality products.                                                                     Queenstown
                                                                                                                                             North                                             Cressy                                 5.3
Modelling undertaken through the
Climate Futures Tasmania project to                                                                                                                                                         Deloraine                                 4.7
                                                                                                        800
2040 and the Dairy Businesses for                                                    1800                       New Norfolk                                                                    Lilydale                               4.5
Future Climates project has shown
Tasmania will remain                                                                                                  Hobart                                                             Mole Creek                                   4.1
                                            Rainfall                                               Huonville
globally competitive for perennial
                                            Millimetres of precipitation                                                                                                                 Ringarooma                                   3.5
                                                                                             00

ryegrass production, the pasture
                                                                                            14

that underpins the dairy industry of        per year
                                                                                                                                                                                            Scottsdale                                4.1
Southern Australia.
                                                                                                                                             South                                          Bushy Park                                4.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8. Water requirements of annual crops.
                                            Source: vW Maps ©2009 Martin von Wyss, vW Maps Pty Ltd.                                         Source: Macquarie Franklin, Farm Irrigation, January 2012                                          DPIPWE, Feb 2012.
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Land affordability                                                                      Dairy Tas has more detailed survey data available in addition
Tasmania has traditionally had lower land prices than                                   to Table 3 below.
comparable dairy areas in Victoria and New Zealand.                                     There is a noticeable increase in size of farms sold and in the
The tables below summarise dairy farm sales over the period                             per hectare values, particularly in Circular Head and north
2015 to 2016.                                                                           west regions.

Dairy farm sales analysis: 2015–16

Table 3: Farm area and total value
Region                           Number                                  Farm area                                           Farm price
                                 of farms
                                                   Dry land       Irrigated            Bush /         Total         Land Improvements1            Total
                                 analysed                                                                                                                  Stock prices                                   (including concentrates) than it is to              Also Friesian cull cows are worth more
                                                    pasture        pasture             waste
                                                                                                                                                           The cost of livestock represents a             breeding. The size of heifers at first              than Jerseys. However, there appears
                                                        (ha)             (ha)             (ha)          (ha)         ($m)               ($m)       ($m)
                                                                                                                                                           significant proportion of the total            calving is also important.                          to be little economic justification for
Circular Head                            12             130                67               18          214          2.74               0.98       3.72
                                                                                                                                                           investment in dairying. Dairy stock                                                                the difference in cow prices between
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Breed
North West                                 5             66               40                31          136          1.46               0.62       2.08    prices vary over time depending                                                                    Friesians and Jerseys. No relationship
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Friesian cows have traditionally been
North                                      4              81              44                16          141          1.54               0.60        2.14   on a range of factors, including:              more expensive than crossbred or                    has yet been determined between
North East                                 3            130               114               19         263           2.19               0.80       2.99    »» milk prices                                 Jersey cows. In recent years, some                  breed and financial returns.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          dairy farmers with Friesian herds have
All dairy farms                          24             109               63                20         192           2.20               0.82       3.02    »» breed                                       been able to sell replacement heifers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              In recent years there has been a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              significant shift to crossbred cows, in
1. Includes irrigation equipment.                                                                                                                          »» production history                          at premium prices to China. At present
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              an attempt to correct herd health and
Source: Opteon, June 2017                                                                                                                                  »» time of calving                             exporters are buying Friesian heifers
                                                                                                                                                                                                          as calves and yearlings. Export markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              fertility problems associated with large
                                                                                                                                                           »» seasonal conditions.                        occasionally exist for Jersey and                   high-producing pure-bred Friesians.
Table 4: Per hectare values                                                                                                                                Cow prices can vary by as much as              crossbred heifers.
                                                                                                                                                           40 per cent from one season to another.
Region                             Number                       Value per ha                               Per total ha                Per effective ha
                                   of farms                                                                                                                The prices quoted in the table below are
                                   analysed
                                                           Dry land                 Irrigated Improvements2             Total farm2         Total farm3    a reflection of the 2016–17 situation.         Table 5: Stock prices 2016–17
                                                            pasture                  pasture1
                                                                ($/ha)                  ($/ha)             ($/ha)             ($/ha)              ($/ha)
                                                                                                                                                           Prices and demand for export dairy              Type of stock                   Production            Jersey    Crossbred             Friesian
                                                                                                                                                           stock vary depending on export orders.                                                level
 Circular Head                             12                  12 729                  16 150              4 572            18 052               18 983    Export stock must meet relevant                                                   (kgMS/hd)            ($/hd)         ($/hd)              ($/hd)
 North West                                    5               11 600                  16 820              4 576            17 446               21 170    selection criteria. Dairy stock that do         Dairy cows
 North                                         4               10 375                  14 475              4 212             15 787              17 260    not meet export selection criteria
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Spring calving                >550 kgMS                                                 1 700
                                                                                                                                                           are subject to local prices.
 North East                                    3                7 131                  11 852              3 030             11 877              12 373                                                                                    >350 kgMS              1 300          1 400               1 500
 All dairy farms                           24                  11 402                 14 908               4 264             16 776              18 325    Time of calving                                                                 550 kgMS                                                 1 700
                                                                                                                                                           the state calving in the spring, it is often
2. Total value divided by total farm area – including bush/waste.                                                                                                                                                                          >350 kgMS              1 300          1 400               1 600
3. Total value divided by effective area (dryland plus irrigated pasture).                                                                                 difficult for autumn-calving farms to
                                                                                                                                                           source cows. Traditional autumn-calving
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                                                                                                                                        Biosecurity                                   Infrastructure                                 Natural gas is delivered via a gas
                                                                                                                                        As an island state, Tasmania has a                                                           pipeline connecting Tasmania to
                                                                                                                                                                                      Transport and travel
                                                                                                                                        clear biosecurity advantage. Tasmania’s                                                      mainland Australia. This provides
                                                                                                                                                                                      Tasmania has well-developed transport
                                                                                                                                        biosecurity system is at the very core                                                       greater choice, flexibility and reliability
                                                                                                                                                                                      systems, encompassing sea, land and
                                                                                                                                        of the Tasmanian brand, as its natural                                                       of energy supply to a multitude of
                                                                                                                                                                                      air travel. These provide fast and
                                                                                                                                        environmental values and quality                                                             customers.
                                                                                                                                                                                      efficient links between the major
                                                                                                                                        produce rely upon the state’s relative        Tasmanian centres, mainland Australia          Tasmanian businesses and residents are
                                                                                                                                        freedom from pests, diseases and weeds.       and international markets. Each                guaranteed a safe, clean and reliable
                                                                                                                                        The state is free of foot and mouth           week, approximately 600 flights carry          energy source. Importantly, the supply
                                                                                                                                        disease and bovine spongiform                 passengers and airfreight into and out of      of energy to Tasmania has never been
                                                                                                                                        encephalopathy (BSE).                         the state. Qantas, Jetstar, Virgin Australia   interrupted by industrial action.
                                                                                                                                                                                      and Tiger Airways all fly into the state
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sensing Tasmania (SenseT)
                                                                                                                                                                                      from many mainland cities, including
                                                                                                                                        Research and development                                                                     The SenseT project will see the
                                                                                                                                                                                      direct flights from Sydney, Melbourne
                                                                                                                                        The Tasmanian Government, industry                                                           development of an integrated sensor
                                                                                                                                                                                      and Brisbane.
                                                                                                                                        and the Tasmanian Institute of                                                               network across Tasmania for live, online
                                                                                                                                                                                      A dedicated freight rail system provides       climate monitoring. The network will
                                                                                                                                        Agriculture (TIA), work together to
                                                                                                                                                                                      transport for bulk freight. Tasmania has       mesh together historical, spatial and
                                                                                                                                        undertake research and development
                                                                                                                                                                                      a comprehensive road system linking            real-time data, and make it available
                                                                                                                                        programs. These are designed to
                                                                                                                                                                                      all of its major cities and towns, which       through the web. SenseT has potential
                                                                                                                                        address agricultural productivity, safe
                                                                                                                                                                                      provides access to rural areas suitable        application in dairying through localised
                                                                                                                                        food production and social and natural
                                                                                                                                                                                      for dairying. The relatively short distance    weather observations and tools to
                                                                                                                                        resource management issues. TIA is
                                                                                                                                                                                      between major centres and rural areas          minimise weather-related risk. It also
                                                                                                                                        home to the Dairy Centre, which
                                                                                                                                                                                      allows for commuting with minimal              has the potential to monitor stock
                                                                                                                                        provides dairy research, development
                                                                                                                                                                                      traffic congestion.                            movements, especially useful with the
                                                                                                                                        and extension of international standard.
                                                                                                                                                                                      The state possesses four deep-water            new robotic milking which is currently
                                                                                                                                        The Dairy Centre maintains a close                                                           being trialled in the state. There is also
                                                                                                                                                                                      sea ports, located in Hobart, Burnie,
                                                                                                                                        working relationship with Dairy Australia                                                    potential to monitor pasture moisture
Agistment rates                            Typical costs for budgeting purposes                Some of the variation in agistment                                                     Devonport and Bell Bay. There are
                                                                                                                                        and DairyTas, and includes areas of work                                                     content, in order to highly refine
                                           are outlined below.                                 rates is due to the inclusion, or not,                                                 regular shipping services linking Tasmania
Dairy farmers in Tasmania often agist                                                                                                   such as the following.                                                                       optimum stock conditions.
                                                                                               of animal husbandry practises such as                                                  to Asia, Europe, the Middle East and
young stock and dry cows off the main
farm, in order to maximise the number
                                           In some cases, yearling heifers are
                                                                                               drenching and mineral supplementation.   »» Extension program for dairy farmers.       North America, via other Australian            www.sense-t.org.au
                                           charged on a weight gain basis until                                                                                                       ports.
of cows milked.                            April/May and then go on to a per
                                                                                               The stock owner bears the cost of any    »» Feed production – the production
                                           week basis of $13.50–$22.00 per head.
                                                                                               drenches, mineral supplements and           and consumption of pasture crops,          Two passenger, vehicle and freight ships,      Adaptive, flexible and
Agistment rates for young stock vary.                                                          health treatments.                                                                                                                    innovative workforce
                                                                                                                                           grazing and harvesting management,         Spirit of Tasmania I and II, provide daily
The quality of the job may also vary. It
                                                                                                                                           water use efficiency and nutrient          sailings across Bass Strait, linking the       Tasmania has a strong agricultural
has become popular for replacement
                                                                                                                                           requirements.                              north west city of Devonport to the            tradition, with skilled and innovative
heifers to be agisted on a weight gain
                                                                                                                                        »» The factors affecting milk production      Port of Melbourne.                             primary producers, processors and
basis, in order to reward the agistment    Table 6: Typical agistment costs
                                                                                                                                           – supplementary feeding, feed                                                             service providers.
farmer for the result achieved and                                                                                                                                                    Energy options
                                            Type of stock                                  Per week           Per kg liveweight gain       conversion, body tissue mobilisation,
to encourage the production of well                                                                                                                                                   Tasmania’s energy network complements          The Tasmanian workforce is readily able
grown heifers.                              Cows                                     $15.00–$22.00                              NA         milking frequency, genetic merit and       the state’s natural environment.               to adapt to meet demand and can offer
                                            Yearling heifers                          $10.00–$13.50                     $1.50–$1.70        developmental epigenetic effects.                                                         investors stability, with an excellent
The price paid for winter agistment                                                                                                                                                   The majority of Tasmania’s energy is
of dry cows can also vary depending         Calves to 12 months                          $7.00–$9.10                    $1.40–$1.60     »» Management of the dairy environment        supplied by renewable hydroelectricity.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     industrial relations record.
on location and season. Generally the       Bulls                                                $10.00                         NA         – synchronisation of fertiliser use with   An undersea power cable linking                Tasmanian training providers work with
cost will increase as the amount of feed                                                                                                   weather conditions, plant demands          Tasmania with Victoria has provided            local industry to ensure that industry
allocated daily to the cow increases.      Source: Macquarie Franklin, Agistment Rates, 2017                                               and soil properties, nutrient budgeting    further competition to the Tasmanian           training needs are met. They actively
                                                                                                                                           and management, and improvement            energy market and allows electricity to        design national and international training
The cost of transport to and from an
                                                                                                                                           of catchment water quality.                be exported during high-priced peak            programs for accreditation and ensure
agistment property should also
                                                                                                                                        The TIA Dairy Research Facility at            demand periods, while still meeting            that high-demand skills are created
be taken into account.
                                                                                                                                        Elliott is a fully operational 340 head       the needs of electricity customers in          within the state.
                                                                                                                                        dairy farming operation and is home to        Tasmania.
                                                                                                                                        structured experiments on a wide range
                                                                                                                                        of key industry issues.
The dairy industry in Tasmania - A guide for investors January 2019 - Tasmania Delivers - Invest Tasmania
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Government support                           TIA’s Dairy Centre provides research       The TFGA consists of five commodity
The Tasmanian Government is putting          services and support to the dairy          groups – Dairy, Meat, Wool, Agriculture
the state’s primary industries on the path   industry. A website dedicated to           and Vegetable – as well as a number of
to achieving a tenfold increase in the       informing the Tasmanian dairy industry     committee groups including Cereal and
value of the sector by 2050. It recognises   about TIA’s activities offers a host of    Seeds, Poppies, Environmental Policy,
that the development of the dairy            resources and tools for innovative         Climate Change, Game Management,
industry is important to the economic        dairy farmers.                             Native Vegetation, Water, Weeds and
future of Tasmania and encourages            www.utas.edu.au/tia/dairy-grains-and-      Forestry.
potential investors to investigate the       grazing/dairy
                                                                                        TFGA members lead each of these
benefits of dairy production and value                                                  groups and regularly work with
adding in the state.                         Industry support                           Australian and Tasmanian Governments
                                                                                        on the wide range of issues that impact
Office of the Coordinator-General            DairyTas
                                                                                        modern farming.
The Office of the Coordinator-General        DairyTas is the Tasmanian service
                                                                                        www.tfga.com.au
is the Tasmanian Government’s                delivery arm of Dairy Australia,
principal entity to attract and support      investing farmer levies and other          Tasmanian Irrigation
investment, which provides free              funds to support the Tasmanian dairy       To capitalise on Tasmania’s comparative
confidential services and professional       industry.                                  water advantage, Tasmanian Irrigation
advice to investors.                                                                    Pty Ltd (TI) was established as a state-
                                             DairyTas’ main aim is to identify,
www.cg.tas.gov.au                                                                       owned company to progress a suite of
                                             promote, facilitate and leverage
                                             opportunities for research,                regionally significant irrigation schemes.
Department of Primary Industries,
Parks, Water and Environment                 development and extension activities in    TI’s board and staff provide the
The Department of Primary Industries,        the Tasmanian dairy industry, which will   technical, financial and project
Parks, Water and Environment                 assist dairy farmers to manage change.     management skills to take a
(DPIPWE) is responsible for the              The DairyTas Board seeks to encourage      $310 million suite of irrigation schemes
sustainable management and protection        the development of a sustainable and       from concept, through feasibility,           The Tasmanian brand                            The state is a natural larder, with        Exports and licensing
of Tasmania’s natural and cultural                                                      detailed design and approval stages,         Tasmania is globally recognised for            clean air, unpolluted water and rich       International dairy exports from
                                             dynamic dairy industry in Tasmania that
assets for the benefit of Tasmanian                                                     to construction and operation.               its pristine environment, as a tourist         soils giving rise to the production of     Tasmania totalled $141 million in
                                             offers economic and social rewards to
communities and the economy.                                                                                                         location of historical and environmental       100 varieties of specialty cheeses, as     2016–17, with the largest contributor
                                             dairy farmers and those in the wider       TI schemes are demand-driven
                                                                                                                                     significance, and as a producer of             well as milk powders, butter and other     being powdered full cream and skim
DPIPWE's activities inform the use           community.                                 and constructed as public-private
                                                                                                                                     high–quality food and wine.                    dairy products. It also produces rock      milk valued at $95 million9. Exports
and management of Tasmania’s land            DairyTas provides small project grants     partnerships, to which the Australian
                                                                                                                                                                                    lobsters, oysters, scallops and abalone,   were predominantly made up of
and water resources. The department          to assist regional groups, industry and    Government is contributing                   Tasmania is an island of difference.           Atlantic salmon, beef, premium beers,      milk powder and cheese.
is also responsible for delivering the       advisors with local projects for the       $140 million, the Tasmanian                  Its people are resourceful, applying           leatherwood honey, mineral waters,
services that support primary industry       dairy industry.                            Government $80 million and the               the kind of creativity that arises from                                                   The Tasmanian Dairy Industry
                                                                                                                                                                                    fine chocolates, fresh berries and stone
development and for the protection           www.dairytas.com.au                        private sector $90 million, through          geographical isolation to their business                                                  Authority (TDIA) is responsible for
                                                                                                                                                                                    fruits, apples, vegetables and award-
of the state’s relative disease and                                                     the purchase of fully tradeable water        activities, scientific research and artistic                                              the food safety licensing, inspection
                                                                                                                                                                                    winning cool-climate wines.
pest–free status.                            Tasmanian Farmers and Graziers             entitlements to particular schemes.          endeavours.                                                                               and auditing of dairy processors and
www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au                        Association (TFGA)                                                                                                                     Other export products include              dairy farms.
                                                                                        Schemes developed by TI deliver water        Tasmanian businesses are world leaders
                                             The Tasmanian Farmers and Graziers                                                                                                     essential oils such as lavender,           www.tdia.tas.gov.au
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture                                                      at 95 per cent reliability. A significant    in many areas of specialisation, including
                                             Association (TFGA) is Tasmania’s                                                                                                       pharmaceutical products and
The Tasmanian Insititute of Agriculture                                                 amount of this new irrigation will water     large-scale, high-speed catamarans,                                                       Tasmania has food processing facilities
                                             farmer organisation, representing over                                                                                                 premium wool that is sought after
(TIA) works closely with its partners in                                                dairy pastures around the state.             marine evacuation gear, high-                                                             that are export licensed and Halal
                                             5 000 members who live and work on                                                                                                     in Europe and Asia.
government and industry to improve                                                      www.tasmanianirrigation.com.au               performance radio antennae                                                                certified, which comply with the most
                                             farm businesses across Tasmania.                                                                                                       www.brandtasmania.com
the performance of Tasmania’s                                                                                                        and aquaculture equipment.                                                                stringent food safety requirements.
agricultural sector, across all industries   The TFGA is an active lobby group that
                                             is owned and governed by farmers, for                                                                                                                                             Exporting from Australia also
and value chains. TIA is recognised                                                                                                                                                                                            requires a licence from the Australian
nationally and internationally for           farmers. Since its formation in 1948,
                                             the TFGA has generated substantial                                                                                                                                                Government Department of
its research excellence. It partners                                                                                                                                                                                           Agriculture (DAFF).
strategically with many other                benefits for the agriculture sector.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               www.agriculture.gov.au/export/
organisations around Australia.                                                                                                                                                                                                controlled-goods/dairy
Internationally, TIA is rapidly increasing
its research portfolio, influence and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9. Tasmanian Agri-Food Scorecard 2016-17,
student numbers.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  DPIPWE
www.utas.edu.au/tia
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  18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19

               Indicative costs of buying a dairy farm in Tasmania
                                                                                                                                     Table 7: Farm descriptions
                                                                                                                                     Cows milked                                                Number                     250                    500              750               1 000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Replacements carried on-farm
                                                                                                                                      Farm area                                                                   20 unit HB        50 unit rotary       50 unit rotary   50 unit rotary
                                                                                                                                             Total farm area                                          ha                   140                    270              380                 500
                                                                                                                                             Total effective area                                     ha                   115                    230              340                 450
                                                                                                                                             Irrigation area (50 per cent)                            ha                    58                    115              170                 225
                                                                                                                                      Milk production
                                                                                                                                             Per cow                                               kgMS                   400                     390              390                 380
                                                                                                                                             Total                                                 kgMS              100 000               195 000            293 000            380 000
                                                                                                                                      Pasture consumed
                                                                                                                                             Irrigated area                                     tDM/ha                    12.0                    12.0            12.0                 12.0
                                                                                                                                             Dryland area                                       tDM/ha                      7.0                    7.0              7.0                  7.0
                                                                                                                                             Average                                            tDM/ha                      9.6                    9.6              9.6                  9.6
                                                                                                                                      Grain fed per cow                                           t/cow                     0.9                    0.9              0.9                 0.9
                                                                                                                                      Labour required
                                                                                                                                             Total units                                            FTE                     3.0                    5.0             6.5                  8.0
                                                                                                                                             Cows per labour unit                           Cows/FTE                        83                    100              115                 125
                                                                                                                                      Bare land value
Buying an operating dairy farm is the        Depending on a range of factors,          Management has a major role in both
way most people choose to enter the          actual financial performance may be       pasture utilisation and labour efficiency.           Dryland                                            $ per ha              $14 000               $14 000            $14 000             $14 000
industry. From that point onwards            better or worse than the examples         It can also affect milk price to some                Irrigated1                                         $ per ha              $21 000               $21 000            $21 000            $21 000
there are several options for expansion:     outlined. Prospective investors should    degree, through decisions on time of
                                             consult widely before deciding on a       calving, milk company chosen and by            Capital investment
»» increase output on the current farm       specific farm.                            its impact on milk quality.                           Land and improvements                             $ million              $2.61m                $5.47m             $7.53m              $9.88m
»» share farming                             A list of useful industry contacts has    Pasture utilisation is a key profit driver.           Stock                                             $ million              $0.45m                $0.89m             $1.34m              $1.74m
»» buy extra land                            been provided on the back cover.          The model farms outlined below are
                                                                                                                                             Plant and machinery                               $ million              $0.19m                $0.22m             $0.25m             $0.38m
»» sell up and buy a larger or more          Farm description
                                                                                       assumed to have 50 per cent dryland
   productive farm.                                                                    and 50 per cent irrigated pastures with               Working capital                                   $ million               $0.11m               $0.19m             $0.27m             $0.35m
                                             Managerial ability is the key factor in   an average pasture consumption of
This section outlines indicative budgets     determining financial performance.        9.5 tonnes of dry matter per hectare.                 Total capital                                     $ million              $3.36m                $6.78m             $9.39m            $12.34m
for the purchase and effective running       The model farms here assume that          This is a reasonable average and should
                                             management ability is above average.                                                                    Per total ha                              $ per ha              $24 100               $25 200            $24 800             $24 700
of a dairy farm business in Tasmania,                                                  be achievable on most farms with
at the present time.                         The main profit drivers for dairy farms   good soil fertility and good pasture                          Per effective ha                          $ per ha              $29 300               $29 500            $27 700            $27 500
Farms for sale may range in size from        in Tasmania are:                          composition.                                                  Per cow                                $ per cow                $13 500               $13 600            $12 600             $12 400
around 150 cows to in excess of 1 000.       »» pasture utilisation                    The main assumptions are outlined in           Milk price
It is generally accepted that a minimum         (and stocking rate)                    the table on the following page.
herd size of around 200–250 cows                                                                                                             Average for season                                 $/kgMS                   $5.15                $5.20              $5.20               $5.20
is required for a business to be fully       »» labour efficiency
viable at the present time. If past trends   »» milk price.                                                                          1. Includes water and fixed irrigation infrastructure. Not including centre pivot, long laterals or other.
continue, this number may increase
over time.                                                                                                                           Source: Macquarie Franklin, April 2017
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 20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 21

As Table 4 (page 12) indicates, farm        On the other hand, the 250 cow farm         Pasture utilisation                      Labour use                                 Table 8: Wages cost
prices can vary considerably.               has a relatively low-value herringbone      Pasture utilisation is the most          Labour and feed are the most
                                                                                                                                                                            Number of cows                               250        500             750            1 000
The values included in the indicative       shed included in its improvements and       significant driver of profit in          significant cost inputs. Within the
costs of buying a dairy farm are            so has an overall capital per cow similar   Tasmanian pasture-based dairy            model farms, full time equivalents         Labour required (FTE)
representative of better farms sold in      to the larger 500 cow farm with a           systems.                                 (FTE’s) have been used to define labour
Tasmania the past few years.                rotary dairy.                                                                        requirements. This is the number of           Owner operator                             1.0       1.25           1.25              1.5
                                                                                        Typically the best results are
                                                                                                                                 employees (including the manager)
They assume a bare-land value of            The average milk price is assumed to be     achieved by paying close attention                                                     Other wages                                2.0       3.75           5.25              6.5
                                                                                                                                 required to run the farm, based on a
$14 000 per hectare for dryland and         around $6.00 per kg milk solids, which      to the pasture supply and demand
                                                                                                                                 38 hour week. The budgets assume              Total                                      3.0        5.0             6.5             8.0
$21 000 per hectare for irrigation area     is below where prices are currently, but    situation, and making astute decisions
                                                                                                                                 that all labour (including the owner/
(including water and underground            are in line with the longer term trend.     about grazing management and                                                        Cows per labour unit                          83        100              115            125
                                                                                                                                 manager) is fully paid for.
mains and other costs).                                                                 supplementary feeding. Increasing
                                            They are shown to increase by
                                                                                        pasture utilisation by one tonne of      In most instances, significant increases   Wages cost
On the assumptions here, there is           5c per kg milk solids, between the
                                                                                        dry matter per hectare (10 per cent)     in disposable income can be achieved if
limited reduction in capital cost per       250 cow farm and the other farms.                                                                                                  Owner operator                         $68 330    $91 100     $102 490         $113 880
                                                                                        can make a significant difference to     owners or share farmers elect to take
hectare or per cow as farm size and         The actual increase based on quantity
                                                                                        overall profitability.                   on a greater proportion of the work.          Other wages                           $89 000    $166 880     $233 630        $289 250
cow numbers increase. Any reduction         premiums should be higher than this,
is likely to come from spreading            but milk quality also needs to be taken     Training in grazing management is        Labour use efficiency is generally            Total                                 $157 330   $257 980    $336 120         $403 130
the cost of the milking facility over       into account and it can be difficult to     available through the Tasmanian          measured as the number of cows
additional hectares/cows, especially with   maintain standards with larger herds.       Institute of Agriculture (TIA) and       milked per FTE. The average is around      Average cost per labour unit              $52 450    $51 600      $51 750          $50 400
a rotary dairy (for example, 500 cows                                                   assistance in on-farm implementation     80 to 90 cows per FTE, but well-set
versus 750 cows).                                                                       and monitoring is available from         up farms can exceed 100 cows per           Labour cost per kg milk solids              $1.57      $1.32          $1.15            $1.06
                                                                                        private consultants.                     FTE. Generally as farm size increases
                                                                                                                                 there are labour efficiencies. These may   Source: Macquarie Franklin, April 2017
                                                                                                                                 continue to increase with herd sizes
                                                                                                                                 up to 1 200 cows.
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  22                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            23

                                                                                                                                    Table 9: 250 cow farm
                                                                                                                                                                                        Total Per effective    Per cow        Per kg
                                                                                                                                                                                                         ha                     milk
                                                                                                                                                                                       ($’000)        ($/ha)    ($/cow)     ($/kgMS)
                                                                                                                                     Income
                                                                                                                                        Milk sales                                        515        4 478       2 060          5.15
                                                                                                                                        Stock trading                                      50          238         110          0.27
                                                                                                                                        Total income                                      565        4 910       2 259          5.65
                                                                                                                                     Expenses
                                                                                                                                        Shed and cow costs                                 43           374        172          0.43
                                                                                                                                        Feed costs                                        155        1 350         621          1.55
                                                                                                                                        Tractor and plant operating                        25           215         99          0.25
                                                                                                                                        Repairs to structures and improvements             23           196         90          0.23
                                                                                                                                        General overheads                                  15          130          60          0.15
                                                                                                                                        Wages (including owner/manager)                   157         1,369        630          1.57
                                                                                                                                        Capital replacement (depreciation)                 20           170         78          0.20
                                                                                                                                        Total expenses                                    438        3 804       1 749          4.38
                                                                                                                                     Profit
                                                                                                                                        Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT)           127        1 107         509          1.27
                                                                                                                                        Return on capital (ROC)                   3.8 per cent
                                                                                                                                    Source: Macquarie Franklin, April 2017

                                                                                                                                    Table 10: 500 cow farm
                                                                                                                                                                                        Total Per effective    Per cow        Per kg
                                                                                                                                                                                                         ha               milk solids
Milk price                                  Tasmania's pasture–based farming           Farm profit                                                                                     ($’000)        ($/ha)    ($/cow)     ($/kgMS)
The assumed milk price of $5.20             systems, that have a reasonable stocking   Indicative profit budgets are outlined        Income
per kg milk solids is conservative and is   rate and typically feed up to one tonne    for the four farms described.
well below the longer-term trend            of supplementary grain or pellets per                                                       Milk sales                                      1 014        4 409       2 028          5.20
of approximately $6.00 per kg               cow, can generally respond well to         Farm profit has been calculated as
                                                                                                                                        Stock trading                                      99          432         199          0.51
milk solids.                                annual milk price variations.              earnings before interest and tax (EBIT)
                                                                                       and as a return on total capital invested.       Total income                                    1 113        4 841       2 227          5.71
Over time, the real (adjusted for           Farms with a heavy dependence on                                                         Expenses
inflation) milk price in Tasmania has       grain feeding can have more trouble        Depending on the amount of borrowed
                                                                                       capital, there will be an interest cost          Shed and cow costs                                 85           371        171          0.44
been relatively stable, but there           coping when milk prices are low and/
has been considerable year-to-year          or grain prices are high. The indicative   to be deducted from the EBIT figure              Feed costs                                        303         1,317        606          1.55
variation.                                  budgets below allow for around 0.9         to arrive at a net profit estimate for a         Tractor and plant operating                        36           158         73          0.19
                                            tonnes of grain fed per cow.               specific business. Also some operators
                                                                                       may choose to pay themselves less than           Repairs to structures and improvements             40           174         80          0.21
                                                                                       the commercial wages included in the             General overheads                                  27           120         55          0.14
                                                                                       EBIT calculation shown here.                     Wages (including owner/manager)                   258        1 122         516          1.32
                                                                                                                                        Capital replacement (depreciation)                 23            98         45           0.12
                                                                                                                                        Total expenses                                    772        3 360       1 546          3.97
                                                                                                                                     Profit
                                                                                                                                        Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT)           341         1,481        681          1.75
                                                                                                                                        Return on capital (ROC)                    5 per cent

                                                                                                                                    Source: Macquarie Franklin, April 2017
The dairy industry in Tasmania                                                                                                                                                                         A guide for investors

  24                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      25

Table 11: 750 cow farm
                                                    Total Per effective    Per cow        Per kg
                                                                     ha               milk solids
                                                   ($’000)        ($/ha)    ($/cow)     ($/kgMS)
 Income
    Milk sales                                      1 521        4 474       2 028          5.20
    Stock trading                                     149          438         199          0.51
    Total income                                    1 670        4 912       2 227          5.71
 Expenses
    Shed and cow costs                                129          379         172          0.44
    Feed costs                                        462        1,359         616          1.58
    Tractor and plant operating                        48          141          64          0.16
    Repairs to structures and improvement              50          147          67          0.17
    General overheads                                  45          132          60          0.15
    Wages (including owner/manager)                   336          989         448          1.15
    Capital replacement (depreciation)                 26           75          34          0.09
    Total expenses                                  1 096        3 222       1 461          3.74
 Profit
    Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT)            574       1,689         766          1.96
    Return on capital (ROC)                   6.1 per cent                                          Farm summary                                                           The slight increase in capital investment per cow between
Source: Macquarie Franklin, April 2017                                                              A comparison of the four farms is provided in the table below.         the 250 cow and the 500 cow farms is associated with a shift
                                                                                                                                                                           in the type of dairy, from a herringbone to a rotary shed.
                                                                                                    The analysis shows the potential for return on capital
                                                                                                                                                                           The cost per hectare falls after 500 cows, with the nominated
                                                                                                    increases with increasing farm size. This is due mainly to a
Table 12: 1 000 cow farm                                                                                                                                                   50 bale rotary dairy able to milk up to 1 000 cows.
                                                                                                    relative reduction in the cost of labour, plus a slightly lower
                                                    Total Per effective    Per cow        Per kg    capital outlay per cow.
                                                                     ha               milk solids
                                                   ($’000)        ($/ha)    ($/cow)     ($/kgMS)
                                                                                                    Table 13: Farm summary
 Income
    Milk sales                                      1 976        4 391       1 976          5.20     Cows milked                                                 Number          250           500            750                       1 000
    Stock trading                                     193          429         193          0.51                                                                                      Replacements carried on-farm
    Total income                                    2 168        4 820       2 169          5.71                                                                           20 unit HB       50 unit        50 unit          50 unit rotary
                                                                                                                                                                                             rotary         rotary
 Expenses
                                                                                                     Capital investment
    Shed and cow costs                                171          381         171          0.45
    Feed costs                                        614        1 364         614          1.62         Total                                                  $million     $3.36m          $6.79m           $9.41m               $12.37m
    Tractor and plant operating                        48          107          48          0.13         Per cow                                                       $     $13 464         $13 583         $12 547               $12 370
    Repairs to structures and improvements             65          144          65          0.17     Pasture consumed                                            tDM/ha           9.6             9.6             9.6                   9.6
    General overheads                                  55          122          55          0.14     Irrigation                                                 per cent        50%             50%              50%                   50%
    Wages (including owner/manager)                   403          896         403          1.06     Grain fed                                                     t/cow          0.9             0.9             0.9                   0.9
    Capital replacement (depreciation)                 38           85          38          0.10     Labour
    Total expenses                                  1 394        3 099       1 395          3.67        Total units                                                 FTE           3.0              5.0            6.5                      8.0
 Profit                                                                                                 Cows per unit                                          Cows/FTE            83             100             115                     125
    Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT)            774       1 720         774          2.04     Milk price (below long term average)                       $/Kg MS         $5.15           $5.20          $5.20                    $5.20
    Return on capital (ROC)                   6.3 per cent                                           Return on capital1                                         per cent        3.8%             5.0%          6.14%                     6.3%

Source: Macquarie Franklin, April 2017                                                              1. Return on capital (EBIT) before capital appreciation.

                                                                                                    Source: Macquarie Franklin, April 2017
The dairy industry in Tasmania                                                                                                                                                                                                            A guide for investors

  26                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       27

                Dairy conversion opportunities
There is potential in Tasmania to create       There is only one milk company on             Deloraine area, to properties along the
new dairy farms by converting current          the island, which is King Island Dairies,     Meander River and via four pipelines
grazing or cropping farms into dairy           owned by Lion (previously National            installed in 2010 (Caveside, Rubicon,
units.                                         Foods) and its requirement for                Quamby and Hagley).
Ideally a potential dairy conversion           additional milk will be a key factor          The Northern Midlands is also
property will have the potential to milk       in any proposed investment.                   reasonably prospective, with larger
500 or more cows. It will be in either         Far north west                                properties, relatively flat topography
the traditional higher-rainfall areas, or      There is reasonable scope for dairy           and with the current and ongoing
in lower-rainfall areas with access to a       conversions in the far north west             irrigation development in the area.
plentiful supply of irrigation water at        (Circular Head municipality), including       Several dairy conversions have already
a reasonable cost.                             some large beef properties. The climate       been undertaken in recent years.
The advantage of dairy conversions over        is ideal for dairying with good rainfall      The availability of irrigation water
existing farms is that there is more scope     distribution and limited frosts.              from new schemes being developed
to have a fully functional farm with new       The far north west is considered the          by Tasmanian Irrigation will open up
infrastructure, situated in the right place.   best dairying region in Tasmania and as       additional potential in the Midlands and
In addition to this, the scope to grow         a result it is already a well-developed       Northern Midlands over the next few
over time can be built in upfront, rather      dairy area. Some conversions may              years.
than hoping that adjoining properties          need to include several adjoining             North east
come onto the market over time.                properties. Some of the land in the           The north east (Dorset municipality)
There is a substantial amount of land          district, particularly on swamp ground,       is already one of the three main
available in Tasmania suitable for             would require drainage as part of the         dairying areas in the state and there
conversion to dairying. Tasmania is            conversion process.                           are opportunities to develop further,
also one of the few states which has                                                         with large areas suited to dairying           Derwent Valley                              Potential returns from                      The financial models assume that the
                                               Central north west
a government water development                                                               with the aid of irrigation. Tasmanian                                                     dairy conversions                           management deployed within the
                                               This area has limited scope for dairy                                                       There are large properties along
strategy in place and is encouraging                                                         Irrigation has recently completed                                                                                                     system is average or above. Hence so
                                               conversions because of the small size                                                       the Derwent River with significant          The following tables provide some
farmers to develop water resources for                                                       the Headquarters Road Dam in the                                                                                                      too is financial performance. Significant
                                               of many of the properties. There is                                                         water rights that would be suitable         indicative figures as a guide to
agricultural purposes. New irrigation                                                        Scottsdale area plus an expansion of the                                                                                              capital expenditure is included in the
                                               competition for the better land from                                                        for conversion to dairying. The area        investment.
schemes currently being developed by                                                         Winnaleah Irrigation Scheme. There                                                                                                    models to provide a solid platform for
                                               intensive horticulture operations. Base                                                     has some of the warmest summer
Tasmanian Irrigation have the potential                                                      are also further schemes currently                                                        There are many variables to consider        good performance.
                                               land prices are generally higher than in                                                    temperatures in Tasmania and with
to open up new land for dairying.                                                            being assessed.                                                                           in undertaking a dairy conversion, so
                                               other prospective areas.                                                                    the aid of irrigation and improved soil                                                 The conversion farm is assumed to be
Subject to water management plans                                                                                                                                                      potential investors wishing to go further
                                                                                             As well as the traditional inland dairy       fertility is capable of excellent pasture                                               in a lower-rainfall non-traditional area
and maintenance of environmental flow          Central north                                                                                                                           should consult widely.
                                                                                             areas on the better-class clay loam soils,    production.                                                                             of the state. Conversion is assumed
requirements, it is also possible to obtain    There is a significant area of land           there is also potential for large-scale                                                   A list of useful industry contacts has      to require purchase of a water right,
                                                                                                                                           Local sources suggest that some of the
new water rights for winter-take into          suitable for converting to dairy in           dairy development on some of the                                                          been provided on the back cover.            at a capital cost of $1 300/megalitre,
                                                                                                                                           better land lies away from the river
storage. Alternatively, it is possible to      the central north. Large properties           sandy and sandy loam soils closer to the                                                                                              sufficient to irrigate around 50 per cent
                                                                                                                                           and therefore water may need to be          Assumptions
buy or lease existing water rights from        currently running extensive cropping          coast. While the soils are not as naturally                                                                                           of the total effective area. Alternatively,
                                                                                                                                           pumped or transferred over some             The financial models used to assess the
other farmers or buy water from them           and livestock are well-suited to dairying.    productive, winter temperatures are                                                                                                   if the farm already has water and
                                                                                                                                           distance. There are also good alluvial      financial viability of dairy conversions
directly.                                      Rainfall in this region varies considerably   higher with very few frosts. In recent                                                                                                irrigation infrastructure, the base price
                                                                                                                                           soils along the river itself.               use a number of assumptions that
Conversion opportunities currently lie         and will need to be taken into account        times, many of these properties have                                                                                                  will be higher and the conversion
                                               when selecting a potential dairy farm.                                                      Dairy conversion investment has             underlie the results shown.
in the following areas of the state.                                                         installed irrigation (usually pivots) to                                                                                              cost will be lower. Replacements are
                                                                                                                                           occurred in recent years and has            The key factor in achieving a good
                                               Many of the farms have large historical       grow crops such as potatoes and                                                                                                       assumed to be run off-farm and limited
King Island                                                                                                                                the potential to develop further.           result is the ability of the manager.
                                               water rights. Irrigation requirements         poppies. Some of the soils are not                                                                                                    grain input (around 0.7 tonne per cow)
There are large tracts of land suitable        are also relatively high, due to lower        robust enough to withstand continuous         South of Hobart                             Important profit drivers include:           is used.
for conversion to dairying on
King Island. There are variations in
                                               summer rainfall (in some areas) and           cropping, but are well-suited to grazing      There is some smaller scale dairy           »» initial capital cost                     The $5.20 per kg milk solids milk price
                                               high evapotranspiration rates.                and hence dairy farming. In some
soil type and rainfall across the island                                                     instances, there may be the need to
                                                                                                                                           investment occurring. For example,          »» pasture utilisation per hectare          is the assumed closing milk price for
                                               The Meander Dam was completed in                                                            the Bruny Island Cheese Co. farm               (and stocking rate)                      2016–17. This is below the longer-term
that need to be taken into account.                                                          combine farms to get to commercially
                                               2008 and has the capacity to provide                                                        expansion in Glen Huon.                                                                 trend of approximately $6.00 per kg
Drainage, soil fertility and a few pockets
                                               an additional 23 900 megalitres in the        viable sizes, however there are also                                                      »» labour efficiency and                    milk solids.
                                                                                                                                           There is very limited potential to
of salinity are potential issues.                                                            many larger farms in the area.
                                                                                                                                           convert land to dairy farming in the        »» milk price.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   The main assumptions are outlined
                                                                                                                                           area south of Hobart.                                                                   in the following table and explained
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   overleaf.
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