The future for Afghanistan under the Taliban - THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED - Arab News
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THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED The future for Afghanistan under the Taliban
THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED
The future for Afghanistan
under the Taliban
Ali Ahmad Jalali is the former interior minister of Afghanistan Mark C. Donfried is director
and a Distinguished Professor at the Near East South Asia Center of the Academy for Cultural
for Strategic Studies of the National Defense University Diplomacy in Berlin
T
he return of the Taliban to such as measles and polio.
power in Afghanistan brings “Education and social services are on the
monumental changes in the brink of collapse and millions of children —
context of regional security. especially girls — are out of school. Over half
While the country faces deep- of all Afghans also face extreme hunger as the
ening economic and humanitarian crises, country experiences its worst drought in two
outsiders are concerned about whether decades, pushing nine million people closer
the Taliban government is able, and will- to famine.”
ing, to avert instability and the renascent Guterres warned of an imminent danger
threat of terrorism in the region. that the country could “go into a free fall” and The Taliban
lose “30 percent of its gross domestic product can either try
Six months after the Taliban’s takeover of within the year.” As the Afghan economy to gain the
Kabul, “Afghanistan is hanging by a thread,” declines at great speed, the human rights
acceptance
Antonio Guterres, the secretary-general of situation is quickly worsening, with women
of the
the UN, said during a meeting of the Security and girls “once again shut off outside offices
Council on Jan. 26, 2022. and classrooms, and years of steady progress
international
“Afghans are now in the grips of a brutal lost in the blink of an eye.”
community
winter, many huddling in makeshift or continue to
tents under plastic sheets,” he continued. DOMESTIC AND REGIONAL rule alone but
“Ambulances and hospital power generators IMPLICATIONS risk falling
are running dry because of skyrocketing In Afghanistan, the Taliban takeover has into a deep
fuel prices, while civilians are suffering from been marked by periods of relative calm economic
COVID-19 alongside preventable diseases punctuated by spectacular terror attacks, crisis.mostly claimed by an assertive Islamic State A Taliban delegation which defines their strategic behavior
is visiting Oslo
Khorasan Province. The breakdown of state for meetings
domestically as well as in their relationship
institutions and the lack of the Taliban’s with Norwegian with the outside world.
officials and
capacity to govern has created a deepening Afghan civil society Although the Taliban has shown some
economic and humanitarian crisis. representatives symbolic changes3 in its behavior, the shifts
focused on the
According to a recent United Nations humanitarian are disproportionate to the changes that
Development Program report, 97 percent of situation in had taken place during the past two decades
Afghanistan and
the country’s population of 38 million is at human rights. AFP in Afghanistan4. Months after their return
risk of sinking into poverty, while about 23 to power the Taliban is yet to deliver on its
million people are in desperate need of food1. rhetoric to form an inclusive government,
The country is faced with human insecurity respect human rights and reign in
and threats to sustainable peace. Daily, extremist groups5.
thousands of people are leaving the country The Taliban’s interim government is
or planning to leave2. exclusively composed of ethnic Pashtun
Regionally, the Taliban victory has not only Taliban officials6 7, dominated by loyal
emboldened violent extremist groups in Pakistani extremist Haqani network leaders.
the region but also invigorated the Islamist The more independent Taliban elements,
agenda across diverse sociopolitical contexts. and those who spearheaded the peace
Continued instability and loss of foreign aid negotiations, are marginalized. Yet the Taliban
could promote an illegal economy and illicit claims that the current cabinet meets the
drug trade, and drive refugees across the THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED requirements of an inclusive government8.
region. The level of such regional fallout is During the past several months, at half a
linked to the Taliban’s ideological vision, dozen international gatherings, neighboringAfghanistan’s states plus the US, Russia and China have organizations15. The Taliban seeks
government and
the United Nations
called on the Taliban to work with other international recognition not only to ease
launched a 404-million groups to build an inclusive government sanctions and receive financial assistance,
dollar appeal on July 9
to help feed 4.5 million that respects the rights of all Afghans, and but also to help its domestic legitimacy and
vulnerable Afghans. to give equal rights to women and girls for consolidation of power16.
AFP
participation in all levels of society9 10. The front-line nations, in other words
Other international demands include Afghanistan’s near and regional neighbors,
that the Taliban upholds international have displayed greater urgency in engaging
legal obligations, including the universally the Taliban than other international
accepted principles of international law and stakeholders, for obvious reasons:
human rights, and protects the security and The presence of regional terrorist
legitimate rights of foreign nationals and groups in Afghanistan that might target
institutions in Afghanistan. neighboring countries plus regional trade
The question is whether the Taliban and economic ties.
government is able and willing to respond to The World Bank said that “Afghanistan’s
these demands and prevent jihadist groups biggest economic challenge is finding
from using Afghan territory to launch attacks sustainable sources of growth.” To date,
in the region and beyond. the World Bank has committed more than
There are certain constraints that influence $5.3 billion for development projects in the
the Taliban’s ability to address emerging country; however, all funding is now frozen17.
issues such as ideological commitments, deep If the Taliban continues to lead Afghanistan
ties with global jihadists, the pressing need to into further international isolation, the
control many actual and potential opposition country is likely to face depreciation of its
forces, and placating its ideologically inspired currency, inflation, and shortages of critical
base, in addition to internal ideological, household goods, including food and fuel
political and regional differences11. (about 80 percent of electricity, between 20
Taliban fighters come from various parts and 40 percent of wheat, and nearly all fuel
of the country, each beholden to their oil is imported). According the World Bank:
immediate commanders, allowing ISIS-K12 “Ten million Afghans are vulnerable to falling
to stage attacks easily. If these constraints into poverty, living with incomes between
continue to influence Taliban behavior, it will one and 1.5 times the poverty line (about
be hard to stabilize the country and prevent $0.94 per person per day).18”
violent extremist groups from extending their During a UN Security Council meeting on
activities across the border. So far, the Taliban Jan. 26, 2022, China’s representative called
government has failed to contain ISIS-K13. for an “end to all unilateral sanctions,” which
Public discontent might create additional he said have “frozen $9 billion and severely
resistance groups or reinforce existing ones. hindered Afghanistan’s access to financing.”
There are unconfirmed reports that some He urged the international community to
former government soldiers, who found explore further options to inject liquidity.
themselves unemployed overnight when the Iran, Pakistan, Russia and countries in
Taliban seized power, and other aggrieved Central Asia have called for the world to
groups are being recruited by ISIS-K. This engage with the Taliban19 and unfreeze
reminds us of the consequences of the de- Afghan funds in US and other international
Baathification of the Iraqi army in 2003. institutions to help Afghanistan overcome
a pending disaster and instability. Pakistan
THE INTERNATIONAL persistently insists that engagement with the
RESPONSE Taliban government would help to promote
No country, including its all-seasons patron peace, sustainable economic development
Pakistan, has recognized the Taliban and constrain the space for terrorist outfits
government, pending signs of responsible in the country 20. International recognition
behavior in its domestic politics and foreign and the lifting of sanctions, they argue, can
relations14. However, international donors encourage the Taliban to moderate.
THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED are delivering emergency aid to the desperate The question is whether withholding
Afghan population through UN agencies and official recognition and aid should be used
other humanitarian and nongovernmental as leverage to force change, or a gradualbehavioral shift should be sought through What the international community should A man shovels snow
from a pathway in
recognition and engagement with the Taliban do is maintain foreign humanitarian aid Kabul on January 2,
government. Using leverage will help only, and increase the amounts in specific areas 2020. AFP
as US Special Representative for Afghanistan to support the Afghan population. It should
Thomas West put it, if the international set up a fundraising campaign to help
community “speak with one voice and act nongovernmental organizations, who need
with common purpose 21.” Otherwise, the resources to provide sufficient aid and
Taliban might seek to separate different carry out existing and new projects. In the
stake holders. future, the international community could
send teams to rural regions to inspect the
THE FUTURE FOR improvements that have been made and
AFGHANISTAN report back on them.
As things stand, the Taliban is isolated from
the international community, the majority THE NEED TO REVIVE THE
of the members of its cabinet have specific BROKEN PEACE PROCESS
sanctions imposed on them, no international The complexities of the situation
recognition exists and all foreign aid has in Afghanistan require that a new,
been cut. The Taliban therefore has two internationally supported peace process be
main strategies to choose between to launched to achieve reconciliation among the
move forward: It can either try to gain the Afghans and encourage a stable government
acceptance of the international community or that can withstand the current economic
continue to rule alone but risk falling into a crisis and gain domestic legitimacy. The
deep economic crisis. process should also aim to contain violent
There is therefore an opportunity for the extremist groups through the establishment
international community to convince the of a regional support mechanism for peace
Taliban that even if intentions and motives and stability in Afghanistan.
are different, its best option in any scenario is During the US and NATO presence in
to be a responsible government and choose Afghanistan, international forces took the
the first option. The Taliban must create lead in counterterrorism operations, with
an inclusive government representative regional actors in a supporting role. In the
of all parts of Afghanistan and all Afghan aftermath of the US withdrawal, these roles
communities, and ensure all groups are might have to reverse — the region leading
included in policy decisions. It must protect while the US supports. This means that
and uphold women’s rights and human rights. regional powers, including Pakistan, China,
It must take action against terrorist groups Iran, Russia, and the Gulf States, would
only with the support of the local population. have to do the heavy lifting to ensure that
If the Taliban rejects this and chooses the Afghanistan does not regress into a global
second option, Afghanistan will surely fall militant sanctuary, destabilizing the region as
into a deep economic crisis that will spiral well as itself.
the country into a humanitarian disaster Moreover, the international community
affecting millions of people, including one must come to an agreement that will lead to
million children, the prime minister of concrete negotiations. The recent meeting
Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre, told reporters on between Western diplomats and Taliban
Jan. 26, 2022, ahead of the 8,954th meeting delegations in Oslo in late January 2022
of the UN Security Council on the situation in marked the beginning of a new chapter
Afghanistan 22. and the start of a meaningful dialogue for
Without any significant action from the the Taliban to understand the needs of the
international community, the situation in international community 23.
Afghanistan might deteriorate, the terrorist International gatherings must continue to
attacks that followed the takeover by the be organized in response to the evolution of
Taliban will not end, boundaries will be the situation in Afghanistan, and to ensure
crossed, malnutrition will increase, the that the Taliban is still making efforts to
economic crisis will affect the purchasing maintain a supportive government for the THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED
capabilities of Afghan people, and human development, prosperity and safety of the
rights will not be respected. Afghan people.FOOTNOTES
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(UNDP, 2021). Economic Instability and taliban-isk-rivalry
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stuck-at-airport 8 legal-status/
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4. Ahmad Seir, R.F. (AP News, 2021). Taliban
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oppression. https://apnews.com/article/ D., Mulky, M. A., & Ridwan, M. (Budapest
afghanistan-taliban-kabul-1d4b052ccef113adc8dc International Research and Critics Institute, 2021).
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eb20cc11b77c12c87 afghanistan
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minister/2419061 taliban/2021/09/17/399a0492-1709-11ec-a019-
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9. Deutsche Welle. (Deutsche Welle, 2021). US,
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aninews.in/news/world/asia/us-envoy-discusses-
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desperate to leave country remain
stuck at Kabul Airport. https://www. Saul, B. (ICCT, 2021). “recognition” and the
aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/18/afghans- Taliban’s International Legal Status. https:// THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED
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