The future of weather and climate modelling - Core
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Impact Objective
• Develop world-class, extreme-scale computing capabilities for European
operational numerical weather prediction and future climate models
The future of weather
and climate modelling
Dr Peter Bauer is Coordinator of a project established to develop world-class, extreme-scale computing
capabilities for numerical weather prediction and future climate models. Below, he discusses the
challenges the project seeks to address, the coordination of complex research initiatives, and upcoming
dissemination events
Could you begin will be extremely expensive. ESCAPE aims of the project, and its high relevance for
by describing at identifying and reformulating the key the weather and climate community. Also,
some of the model components (called ‘weather and through ESCAPE, the HPC community have
current challenges climate dwarfs’ inspired by the Berkeley realised how challenging our particular
associated with computational dwarfs) that drive this cost. application is and how important therefore
weather and climate our participation in their co-design efforts is.
predictions? Coordinating such a complex and
multifaceted technological research What plans do you have for ESCAPE
Both weather and climate predictions need initiative must present some major in 2017?
to produce forecasts and products within obstacles. How you have dealt with these?
strict time constraints. Weather forecasts Next year will see the first full cycle through
are issued regularly several times per day The coordination of ESCAPE is clearly the iteration loop – from the definition and
and therefore the models need to run in challenging, just like all projects with many extraction of the dwarfs via the software
specified time slots every day. Since climate partners with multidisciplinary backgrounds. adaptation that employs new programming
models produce predictions for long time We have set up an effective project models – towards the testing of components
periods – often over decades and longer managing structure, including a science on novel hardware, including an estimation
– they need to complete these predictions coordinator and project manager, which of compute performance. This will be a
within reasonable periods and with helps separate the scientific and formal proof of concept of the main ESCAPE
continuous processing. Either through burst aspects of ESCAPE. Up to now, no major development path.
(weather) or continuous (climate) mode, obstacles and problems have surfaced. The
the required production rates are about partners are very competent and responsive, Finally, do you have any dissemination
100–1000 forecast days per real day. This and we have not experienced delays in any planned where you will be sharing the
requirement will not change and becomes work area. Also the European Commission results from ESCAPE?
extremely challenging for high-resolution (EC) project officer has been very helpful
and complex models, even more so if and one can see that the EC is really We have a News and Events column that
models are run in ensemble mode. interested in the subject. your readers can visit at www.hpc-escape.
eu for more information. Important events
In what ways will the Energy-efficient The EC recognises that weather and climate are the first Dissemination Workshop
SCalable Algorithms for weather Prediction prediction offers a very challenging case in October 2016 and a range of training
at Exascale (ESCAPE) project overcome for future HPC development, and that events. ECMWF’s Scalability Programme
these challenges? weather and climate forecast requirements (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/what-
need to be fulfilled, given their significant we-do/scalability) and ESCAPE will also be
The enhancement of spatial resolution and importance for European society. prominently represented at the biannual
complexity of forecast models makes the European Centre for Medium-Range
models physically more realistic and thus Have you achieved any results that you are Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) HPC in
will improve forecast skill. We assume that particularly pleased with? Meteorology Workshop. To find out more
the dimension of the models will increase about this, your readers can head to www.
by a factor of 100–1000 in the next 10 years It is too early to report on actual results ecmwf.int/en/learning/workshops-and-
because of that. Obviously, the acquisition from the software developments, but we seminars/17th-workshop-high-performance-
and power supply for 100–1000 times larger are certainly very satisfied with the feedback computing meteorology.
high-performance computer (HPC) facilities we receive on the importance and design
www.impact.pub 69
A collective approach to
weather and climate prediction
The first-of-its-kind collaborative project ESCAPE is helping to facilitate high-resolution weather
forecasting. By changing numerical algorithms and employing new programming models, significant
improvements to both weather and climate predictions will be possible and affordable, leading to
reliable and timely forecasted warnings
While it is possible to reduce the established. It represents the first has helped define and initiate ESCAPE.
human impact on the global climate, it collaborative project between European ‘The team of weather prediction centres,
is impossible to control the weather – weather prediction centres, academia, high- academic institutions and computer
irrespective of whether it is a result of global performance computing (HPC) centres and companies make sure that ESCAPE
warming or naturally occurring. However, computer hardware vendors. developments are fit-for-purpose for both
as technology develops and becomes regional and global applications, and that
more and more innovative, both weather The project would not be possible without the latest developments in numerical
and climate predictions are increasingly the excellent international collaboration techniques, programming environments
accurate, providing reliable forecasts and that underpins this work. ESCAPE joins up and hardware capabilities are brought
timely warnings. operational meteorological services from together,’ says Bauer.
Switzerland, France, Germany, Belgium and
Despite these advances, it is critically Denmark, a UK university, high-performance KEEPING COSTS DOWN WHILST
important that more precise forecasts are computing centres in Ireland and Poland MAINTAINING PERFORMANCE
developed as soon as possible, not least and three industrial partners providing The chief aim of the ESCAPE collaboration
because of the aforementioned long-term, computing hardware. These organisations is to reformulate the key model components
human-induced climate change that is are all working hard to investigate new that drive the significant increases in cost.
taking place all around us. For, while the formulations of forecast model components The proposed reformulation considers
weather has always generated natural to achieve better performances in scientific elements, such as different
disasters around the world, the frequency the future. Importantly, the European equations, mathematical solvers and
and severity of hazards related to the Centre for Medium-Range Weather algorithms, and computational elements,
weather and climate is on the rise. Forecasts (ECMWF) – an independent such as programming models, software
intergovernmental organisation supported libraries and more efficient processors. One
While the need for improvements to weather by 34 states – is strongly involved in the crucial consideration is the need to ensure
and climate predictions is evident, it is not a joint research effort. that by reformulating these elements the
straightforward process. Weather forecasts scientific performance is not deteriorated.
are necessary throughout each day, where ESCAPE, coordinated by Dr Peter Bauer,
they are continuously updated to improve benefits from evolutions in extreme-scale However, taking such a significant step
their reliability, and they therefore must be computing capabilities that have taken in defining the fundamental algorithmic
generated within strict time constraints. On place over the last decade. Bauer notes that building blocks of weather predictions
the other hand, climate predictions are more ECMWF has a long history of HPC facility is no mean feat. Indeed, one of the first
focused on the long term, but both models management and optimising computer deliverables of the project is the definition of
need to produce somewhere between 100 codes on a range of architectures for those building blocks. These follow from the
and 1000 forecast days every real day. The achieving the best possible efficiency given hierarchy and sequence of logical tasks in
problem is that the accuracy of weather and the available resources: ‘Their foundation the forecast model that reflects how groups
climate prediction is strongly affected by the as a single European unit also helped of physical processes are represented in the
computational affordability and, as models centralise HPC capabilities to allow access simulation model and which mathematical
become increasingly complex, they become to larger computing power than available algorithms are needed by the chosen
extremely expensive. Thus, a fundamentally in any individual Member State. This has numerical methods. As the latter are
different approach to computing and data enabled cutting-edge scientific research also part of the redefinition step, several
management is required. to be performed and translated into options for numerical methods and thus
operational services.’ mathematical methods are investigated at
THE BENEFITS OF PARTNERING the same time.
WITH WORLD-CLASS FACILITIES Ultimately, Europe’s experience with
With that in mind, the Energy-efficient advanced and explorative projects in As the project evolves over time, the multi-
SCalable Algorithms for weather Prediction numerical weather prediction, with HPC, disciplinary team will be able to determine
at Exascale (ESCAPE) project has been code management and code sharing which building blocks are important in
70 www.impact.pub
The team of weather prediction centres, academic Project Insights
institutions and computer companies make sure that FUNDING
ESCAPE developments are fit-for-purpose for both European Union Horizon 2020 (GA no.
671627).
regional and global applications
PARTNERS
Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
• German Meteorological Service
(DWD) • Royal Meteorological Institute
of Belgium (IRM) • Météo-France •
Meteo Swiss • Institute of Bioorganic
Chemistry, Polish Academy of Sciences •
Loughborough University, Leicestershire
• National University of Ireland, Galway
• Bull SAS • NVIDIA Corporation •
Optalysys Ltd
CONTACT
Peter Bauer
Project Coordinator
T: +44 118 949 9080
E: peter.bauer@ecmwf.int
W: www.hpc-escape.eu
terms of their relevance to future models, opportunities and provides computer
PROJECT COORDINATOR BIO
with consideration given to the fact that the training with access to the latest hardware
Dr Peter Bauer joined ECWMF in
level of importance might change. Indeed, architectures, as well as practical experience January 2000 and is the Deputy Director
ESCAPE includes steps down the line to with very large science codes in some of the of the Research Department.
re-select and re-evaluate the components largest HPC facilities in the world. These
as the understanding of them develops. opportunities are very attractive for young
Importantly, the computational cost of researchers and present them with career
the building blocks can be ascertained paths that have not been accessible to this
using code profiling tools, so the team extent before.
can focus on those that help keep costs
down. In addition to the computational The fact that ECMWF is an international
performances, ESCAPE gives special organisation with mostly European
attention to power usage, as large HPC members and cooperating states means
facilities require substantial electric power that ESCAPE will benefit the European
sources that could become impossible to public by providing the highest forecasting
sustain for future systems. Because the quality with affordable computational
project is focused on solving anticipated cost. However, ultimately, the benefits C : 100 C :0 C 100 - M
M : 72 M : 87 100% > 1
problems in the future, it makes sense to of ESCAPE are further reaching than PANTONE®
REFLEX BLUE C
PANTONE®
032 C
PANTONE®REFLEX BLUE C
100% > 16%
J :0
N : 11
J : 87
N :0
give consideration to the feasibility of the that, not least because improvements to
solutions they proffer. weather forecasting will not only save lives
– ESCAPE will help save vast amounts of
THE FAR-REACHING money currently associated with natural
ASSOCIATED BENEFITS disasters around the world. More reliable
As part of the proposed structure for the and earlier weather and climate forecasting
project, ESCAPE includes a goal that focuses leads to better preparation by those
on dissemination and training that provides potentially affected and, given the expected
future recruitment opportunities in the field. effects of climate change in the future,
Traditionally, the combination of physical, the weather will become an increasingly
mathematical and computer science skills societal concern.
is exploited in computational fluid dynamics
and engineering, but ESCAPE wants to draw ESCAPE represents a huge step forward
scientists skilled in those areas into weather in weather and climate modelling, but
and climate prediction. it also helps develop interdisciplinary
research on energy-efficient HPC which has
The project is designed to present young obvious uses in other fields. The future of
researchers with career and training computational modelling looks increasingly
opportunities in an area with high societal bright, whatever the weather.
relevance. ESCAPE offers employment
www.impact.pub 71You can also read
