WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS

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WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
T H E M AG A Z I N E O F T H E A S S O C I AT I O N O F S A L A R I E D M E D I C A L S P E C I A L I S T S   I S S U E 1 1 5 | J U LY 2 0 1 8

      WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3
      THE DR BAWA-GARBA CASE: CRIMINAL LAW AND
      HOW IT SHOULD BE APPLIED IN HEALTH CARE | P7
      YOUR NATIONAL EXECUTIVE AND
      BRANCH OFFICERS | P10                                                                                           TO I M ATA H AU O R A
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
INSIDE
  THIS
  ISSUE
  ISSUE 115 | JULY 2018

  MORE WAYS TO GET
  YOUR ASMS NEWS
  You can find news and views
  relevant to your work as a specialist
  at www.asms.nz. The website is
  updated daily so please add it to
  your favourites or online bookmarks
  to remain up to date.                          03   WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK?

                                                 07
  We’re also on Facebook, Twitter                     THE DR BAWAGARBA CASE: CRIMINAL LAW AND HOW IT SHOULD BE
  and LinkedIn, and links to those                    APPLIED IN HEALTH CARE
  pages are at the top of the ASMS
  website homepage.
                                                 10   YOUR NATIONAL EXECUTIVE AND BRANCH OFFICERS

    USING QR CODES
                                                 12   RESPONDING TO THE CHALLENGES AHEAD

                                                                                                                                       WHICH WAY,
    You’ll notice QR codes are
    used throughout this issue of
    The Specialist. They will take you           14   PREPARING FOR A TOUGH WINTER IN HOSPITAL
                                                      EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS

                                                                                                                                       MINISTER CLARK?
    to the websites or online articles
    mentioned in the magazine without
    manually having to type in a
    website address.
                                                 15   THE RISE IN ACUTES

    If you don’t already have a QR
    reader/scanner on your smart phone,
                                                 16   THIS YEAR’S BUDGET HAS STOPPED THE BLEEDING, BUT WHAT NEXT?
                                                                                                                    IAN POWELL | ASMS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

    you can download one for free from
    your phone’s app store (eg, Google
    Play on Android or the App Store on
                                                 18   WAGE-LED GROWTH: HOW LOW WAGES HOLD BACK PROGRESS
                                                                                                                    N   ew Health Minister Dr David Clark
                                                                                                                        has announced a highly significant
                                                                                                                                                                  But it must be remembered that in a
                                                                                                                                                                  previous life she was an academic health
                                                                                                                                                                                                                The review deserves to be welcomed,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                but with caution, depending on which
    Apple phones). It’s simply a matter
    then of pointing the QR reader at
    the QR code on the page of the
                                                 21   CHILLING IMPACT OF POVERTY ON CHILD HEALTH
                                                                                                                    and wide-ranging review of health and
                                                                                                                    disability services. It includes district
                                                                                                                                                                  economist. Further, she was centrally
                                                                                                                                                                  involved in the construction of the current
                                                                                                                                                                                                                way the review and the Health Minister’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                expectations go (hence the cover cartoon
                                                                                                                    health boards but goes beyond them to         legislation that created DHBs and             in this issue of The Specialist).
    magazine and then clicking through
    to the website link that appears.            24   FIVE MINUTES WITH JUSTIN BARRY-WALSH                          include primary health organisations
                                                                                                                    (PHOs) and the wider primary sector.
                                                                                                                                                                  replaced the commercial business model
                                                                                                                                                                  that had previously governed our public
                                                                                                                                                                                                                New Zealand’s public health system,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                compared with universal systems around
                                                                                                                    The draft terms of reference are broad        health service. She knows the principles
  The Specialist is produced with the generous
  support of MAS.
                                                 26   BREASTFEEDING AND RETURNING TO PAID WORK; ISSUES FOR
                                                      ASMS MEMBERS                                                  and open to public consultation, a
                                                                                                                    positive approach which compares well
                                                                                                                                                                  our current Act is based on more than
                                                                                                                                                                  most, and no one, including political
                                                                                                                                                                                                                the globe, performs very well. It punches
                                                                                                                                                                                                                above its weight. But there are difficulties,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                much of which are due to sustained under-
                                                 28
                                                                                                                    with past government initiatives.             opponents, criticises the quality of her
                                                      THE CAPITAL CHARGE: A FUNDING GIVE-AND-TAKE                                                                                                               funding in a sector affected by continuing
                                                                                                                                                                  brain cells.
  ISSN (Print) 1174-9261                                                                                            The Chair is Heather Simpson (the rest of                                                   and increasing demand (especially acute
  ISSN (Online) 2324-2787                                                                                           the review group is yet to be appointed).     This doesn’t mean ASMS will not have          and chronic). The Government advises us
                                                 31   SPECIAL CIRCULAR 2018/6                                       Given her role as the highly influential
                                                                                                                    senior adviser to Helen Clark in her
                                                                                                                                                                  differences with some of the things her
                                                                                                                                                                  taskforce proposes. We may well do.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                that it intends to address this during its
                                                                                                                                                                                                                occupancy of the Treasury benches. It is
  The Specialist is printed on Forestry
  Stewardship Council approved paper             32   ASMS SUBMISSIONS                                              different roles, especially as a three-term
                                                                                                                    Prime Minister, this appointment is open to
                                                                                                                                                                  But whatever that might be, it is likely
                                                                                                                                                                  to be considered, and not lacking in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                off to an encouraging start, but one year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                of reasonable funding does not make up
                                                                                                                    political attack.                             intellectual grunt.                           for eight previous years of under-funding.
                                                 32   VITAL STATISTICS

                                                 33   DID YOU KNOW?
                                                                                                                    New Zealand’s public health system punches above its weight but there are difficulties, mostly
                                                 34   HISTORIC MOMENTS                                              due to sustained under-funding.

2 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                              WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   3
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
The review should consider making explicit in the legislation an obligation on DHBs to ensure
       workforce empowerment and the well-being and health of those they employ.

       RELATIONAL COMMUNITY AND                       led networks between public hospitals         There are several problems with this
       HOSPITAL CONTINUUM OF CARE                     have achieved proven success in Scotland      approach. DHBs are responsible
                                                      and New South Wales. We have made             for defined populations. These four
       There are processes and leadership
                                                      some progress in New Zealand but are          populations are too big and dispersed for
       culture that also constrain the
                                                      way short of realising the potential.         a DHB to have an effective operational
       effectiveness of our system. There is too
                                                                                                    focus in both community and hospital
       much focus on primary and secondary            For this to happen, however, we need
                                                                                                    care. It is too big an ask. Look at how
       care as somehow something being                to increase the capacity of the health
       organically separate, leading to narrow        professional workforce. This includes         difficult the relatively new Southern
       constructs of ‘primary-led’ and ‘shifting      specialists who face (through leadership      DHB (the result of a top-down driven
       services’ from the former to the latter. The   neglect from government to DHB) a crisis      merger between Otago and Southland)
       focus is structural, rather than relational.   as they suffer worsening chronic shortages,   is finding addressing the health needs of
       Instead, the emphasis should be relational     burnout, presenteeism and retention loss.     the most geographical dispersed defined
       based on the continuum of care between         The review should consider making explicit    population of all our 20 DHBs.
       community and hospital.                        in the legislation an obligation on DHBs to   If the objective is to improve integration in
                                                      ensure workforce empowerment and the          the continuum of care between community
       The most mature example of this is
                                                      well-being and health of those they employ    (why would it not be otherwise), then
       the several hundred health pathways
                                                      (https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/          smaller is better. Where there is more than
       between community and hospital (broader
                                                      campus/university-of-otago/crampton-          one general practice voice or PHO in our
       than just primary and secondary) at
                                                      protect-nz-health-staff).                     20 DHBs, it has proven very difficult to
       Canterbury DHB. These have been
       developed and agreed through effective                                                       achieve the gains that have been made in
                                                      AVOID THE STRUCTURAL FOCUS
       clinical leadership (not just doctors) in                                                    the Canterbury DHB (which has the added
                                                      PLEASE, MINISTER
       both community and hospital. As a result,                                                    advantage of one GP voice to engage
       the outcomes are much more robust,             But there are some alarm bells. Dr Clark      with; Pegasus). Creating four mammoths          Our current four regional boundaries are         and medium-sized ones, even greater than        of a Northland health system. Conversely,
       despite serious workforce capacity issues      has intimated in a couple of public           will severely impede this objective.            somewhat artificial. Largely historical,         the poorly judged Health Benefits Ltd           it is illogical to speak of a northern health
       (shortages) amongst specialists at least.      utterances on a more structural approach;                                                     they do not neatly capture natural clinical      initiative of the former Government. The        system comprising the three quite diverse
                                                                                                    Structure is not the determinant of             synergies between DHBs. For example,             political risk of such an approach, with the    metro Auckland DHBs and Northland.
                                                      specifically, the number of DHBs. Further,
       Centred on distributed clinical leadership,                                                  clinical collaboration between DHBs.            while Whanganui DHB has a need to                next election in 2020, is high. Only policy
                                                      medical sociologist Professor Peter                                                                                                                                                            In this context, the review would be better
       good relationship-based networking and         Davis has argued in the New Zealand           There are already good examples of this         consider a close relationship with its           wonks with their heads in the clouds and
       patient-centred care, they have led to                                                       happening now. One that hits me in the                                                                                                           placed to consider how the operational
                                                      Herald (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/                                                     near neighbour MidCentral, particularly          their feet well away from the clinical front
       considerable gains both in the quality                                                       eye is the very small West Coast DHB                                                                                                             role of the Ministry of Health might be
                                                      health/104612468/health-review-should-                                                        vulnerable smaller services and sharing          line would contemplate going down such a
       and accessibility of patient care and                                                        and the very large Canterbury DHB,                                                                                                               better refined to facilitate (perhaps
                                                      consider-making-doctors-visits-free-to-all)                                                   critical mass, in respect of patient referrals   short-sighted direction.
       financial performance. This includes the                                                     separated by a huge mountain range.                                                                                                              even direct) DHBs to focus on clinically-
                                                      that we should go back to the short-                                                          its clinical synergies are further north in                                                      led relational-based networking within
       unparalleled experience of bending the                                                       There are longstanding historical roots                                                          NATIONAL AND LOCAL HEALTH
                                                      lived structures of four regional health                                                      Auckland and further south in Wellington.                                                        and between DHBs, and across the
       curve of increasing acute demand.                                                            to this collaboration but in recent years                                                        SYSTEMS
                                                      authorities of the mid-1990s when the                                                                                                                                                          community-hospital continuum.
                                                      government of the day tried to run our        it has qualitatively advanced beyond            Merging DHBs does not of itself save
       This doesn’t mean that we don’t have                                                                                                                                                          A feature of all universal health systems
                                                      public hospitals as commercial businesses     Canterbury specialists doing lists or clinics   money, or at least not enough to be worth
       disagreements with Canterbury DHB over                                                                                                                                                        is the tension between their internal           REVIEW MUST NOT BECOME
                                                      competing with themselves and the             on the Coast. Services on both sides of         the considerable hassle and disruption.
       engagement; we do. But this experience                                                                                                                                                        local and national systems. All health          RATIONALE FOR PROCRASTINATION
       confirms the importance of this low            private sector. These four authorities        the Alps function in a more integrative         Didn’t the top-down driven merger of             systems struggle with getting the balance       OR DELAY
       transaction cost relational approach instead   controlled the funding for this competitive   way than before, with an encouraging            the former Otago and Southland DHBs              right between what works best locally,
                                                                                                    Transalpine feel emerging. A big brother-       into the new Southern DHB work well                                                              There is also a risk of the Government
       of the high transaction cost contractual and   model that subsequently collapsed under                                                                                                        regionally and nationally. Arguably,
                                                                                                    small brother relationship would not have       financially with its sustained high level of                                                     allowing shorter term exigencies to either
       structural approach. Critical to its success   its own ideological absurdity.                                                                                                                 universal health systems are too dynamic
                                                                                                    allowed this.                                   debt? The politically driven failed attempt                                                      be dumped in the bucket of the review’s
       is the leadership culture developing these                                                                                                                                                    to get the balance right. But it is not the
                                                      I suspect Professor Davis is not proposing                                                    to merge by stealth the three lower North                                                        scope or continuing to be ignored. These
       pathways (distributed clinical leadership),                                                  This is still a journey but the road map                                                         struggle that is the issue. Instead it is the
                                                      a return to this failed business model. It                                                    Island DHBs – Wairarapa, Hutt Valley and                                                         include the crisis facing the DHB specialist
       its networking approach and the focus on                                                     is good. But it is being achieved under                                                          quality and robustness of the struggle;
                                                      would be contrary to his own previously                                                       Capital & Coast – led only to uncertainty                                                        workforce referred to above, and the lost
       patient-centred care.                                                                        two DHBs rather than through a merger                                                            the better this quality and robustness, the
                                                      articulated views on this failed attempt to                                                   and a level of havoc.                                                                            opportunities caused by the failure to
                                                                                                    (although they share some senior                                                                 better for our system overall.
       The Minister’s review needs to focus on        create a commercial market in a universal                                                                                                                                                      advance distributed clinical leadership.
       improving processes through a relational       public health service. But, simplistically,   management functions). If it had been a         The practical outcome of this review             The reality is that we have defined             Both of these were glaring omissions from
       lens (sometimes called alliancing). This is    he seems to be advocating for reducing        merger, it most likely would have fallen        focusing on the number of DHBs will be a         geographic populations with variable            David Clark’s first Letter of Expectations
       not just through the networking approach       our 20 DHBs to four, presumably based         short. What has been important is that by       distraction from what is really needed to        diversity of needs as part of a national        to DHBs in April. It is imperative that if
       between community and hospital, but also       on the four regional groupings of DHBs        having its own DHB, the West Coast and          improve our public system. It would create       system. Each depends on and interacts           the Minister is to be genuinely rather than
       between DHBs sub-regionally, regionally        we currently know as Northern, Midland,       its SMOs have had a greater voice which         uncertainty over the future for many             with the other. It is logical, given its        rhetorically transformational, that he
       and nationally. Clinically developed and       Central and South Island.                     has benefited all.                              working in DHBs, particularly the smaller        defined population, for example, to speak       focuses on addressing them post haste.

4 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   5
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
The review deserves to be welcomed, but with caution, depending on which way the review and
       the Health Minister’s expectations go.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     THE DR BAWA-GARBA
                                                                                                                                                                                                     CASE: CRIMINAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                     LAW AND HOW IT
                                                                                                                                                                                                     SHOULD BE APPLIED
       A positive aspect of the Minister’s
       Letter of Expectations to DHBs was
       the strong, unambiguous commitment
                                                     not wait until the Minister’s review. There
                                                     is general acceptance that a population
                                                     based funding system (with appropriate
                                                                                                     could be done immediately is significantly
                                                                                                     increasing the decades old absurdly low
                                                                                                     threshold ($10 million) for capital works
                                                                                                                                                                                                     IN HEALTH CARE
       to public provision of hospital services      qualifiers) is sound, especially when           spending for triggering Government
                                                                                                                                                      DR ROB HENDRY | MEDICAL DIRECTOR AT MEDICAL PROTECTION SOCIETY (MPS)
       (and by direct contrast, his opposition to    compared with activity-driven alternatives.     approval and Treasury monitoring.
       privatisation). This is also evident from     But some sharply focused work is required
       his abandonment late last year of Public                                                      POSITIVELY TRANSFORMATIONAL OR

                                                                                                                                                      T
                                                     by those with expertise in this area on         NEGATIVELY ‘DESTRUCTIONAL’                            he case of Dr Bawa-Garba in England     given a two year suspended sentence        The collision that followed between the
       Private Partnerships in the South Island.     fine-tuning the qualifiers, reviewing whether                                                         has created concern amongst the         and was subsequently suspended from        medical community and the criminal
       It took a long time for the penny to drop     PHO enrolments might be a more robust           If the Minister of Health and his review
                                                                                                                                                      medical community worldwide. Doctors         the UK medical register for one year       justice system has sent shock-waves
       but Taranaki DHB eventually realised the      method of assessing population than             is going to lead to something positively
                                                                                                                                                      are afraid that if their care of a patient   by the Medical Practitioners Tribunal      around the world. ‘Could it happen here?’
       obvious and reversed its plan to privatise    the five-yearly census based on smaller         transformational, it needs to steer away                                                      Service (MPTS). The UK General Medical
                                                                                                                                                      is judged to be seriously deficient, this                                               and ‘Is a career in a high risk speciality
       its hospital laboratory. But there is much    numbers, recognising that PBF is unreliable     from structural change. Instead, it should                                                    Council (GMC) appealed the Tribunal’s
                                                                                                                                                      could result in them being the subject                                                  wise?’ are questions many health care
       more for Dr Clark to front foot on this.      for addressing unexpected cost increases        focus on improving clinically-led networking                                                  decision and sought agreement from
                                                                                                                                                      of a criminal prosecution and even                                                      professionals in New Zealand are asking
       With the various services, clinical and       due to natural disasters, and making the        processes between community and                                                               the High Court to instead erase her
                                                                                                                                                      imprisonment. This concern is shared by                                                 themselves.
       diagnostic, that have been privatised         whole process transparent instead of the        hospital, and between DHBs at all levels,                                                     from the medical register. The appeal
                                                                                                                                                      New Zealand doctors.                                                                    A large degree of the outrage within
       over the years, there is a need to plan for   current secrecy.                                on explicitly directing DHBs to be enabling                                                   was supported by the High Court. MPS
       returning these to public provision as each                                                   workforce empowerment (distributed               Dr Bawa-Garba was convicted of gross         instructed a number of the country’s top   the profession in the UK was triggered
                                                     Major capital works funding could also be                                                        negligence manslaughter (GNM) in 2015,       QCs to represent Dr Bawa-Garba in          by the GMC’s decision to appeal the
       contract comes up for renewal. But this                                                       clinical leadership for much of what they
                                                     addressed more immediately instead of                                                            following her part in the death of six       these hearings, and we were extremely      MPTS’ determination and seek to have
       should not have to wait until the Simpson                                                     are responsible for), and explicitly requiring
                                                     waiting until the review is completed. Its                                                       year old Jack Adcock in 2011. She was        disappointed at the outcome.               the doctor struck off. It underscored that
       review has concluded. It does not need to                                                     DHBs to be responsible for the health and
                                                     impact on the operational budgets of DHBs
       be part of this review because the policy                                                     well-being of their workforce.
                                                     is profound and distortionary. Why not use
       direction is already established. It should                                                   If they allow themselves to divert down the
                                                     the expertise that already exists in DHBs,
       start now.                                    particularly through the chief finance          structural dead-end pathway, then, rather
                                                     officers, to advise on this? They could look    than being positively transformational, the
       FUNDING MECHANISMS
                                                     at a national risk pooling system of funding    predictable outcome will be negatively           The Dr Bawa-Garba case has been something of a watershed in the history of professional
       The Population Based Funding formula is       major capital works that takes the pressure     “destructional’ (no such word, I know, but       accountability.
       a matter that deserves attention but need     off operational funding. One thing that         it fits).

6 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   7
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
“‘Could it happen here?’ and ‘Is a career in a high risk speciality wise?’ - questions many health care
                                                                                                                                                  professionals in New Zealand are asking themselves.“

       those who hold doctors to account are far      The Accident Compensation Corporation          offender, the other is to serve as an        So what gives rise to such cases                The other crucial difference in Scotland is     for the legal bar for a GNM conviction in
       from developing the open, learning culture     (ACC)                                          example in order to minimise the risk of     appearing in front of a criminal court?         that if a charge of culpable homicide was       England and Wales to be raised; moving
       promoted as essential to patient safety. In    When the ACC was set up in the                 recurrence. In New Zealand, the MCNZ         There are two essential components which        considered against a medical practitioner,      towards the Scottish position where
       New Zealand, it has also understandably        1970s it introduced a form of no-fault         and the HDC effectively fulfil both theses   lead from the death of a patient, to the        the country’s most senior law officer who       charges are only brought against doctors
       prompted the question of what the                                                             purposes as they are afforded broad          criminal court. Firstly, those investigating    sits on the Scottish Cabinet is required        if an act is proved to be intentional,
                                                      compensation for personal injury and
       Medical Council of New Zealand (MCNZ)                                                         discretion in investigating, prosecuting     the death are required to obtain an             to approve it. It is possible therefore that    reckless or grossly careless and is shown
                                                      since then an adversarial approach to
       would do in the same situation.                                                                                                            independent medical expert opinion on           they would take a wider view regarding          to be in the public interest. Many other
                                                      medical error has not developed. Due to        and disciplining medical professionals
                                                                                                                                                  the actions of the doctor. If, in the opinion   public interest than in England and Wales.
       Many are also concerned by the decision to     the scheme’s statutory ban on bringing         accused of negligence. Hence, while the                                                                                                      recommendations are aimed at improving
       prosecute Dr Bawa-Garba for GNM in the         civil proceedings against medical              ACC does not afford medical practitioners    of the expert, the care was not just sub-       It is widely accepted that a culture of         the way in which GNM cases are handled
       first place, and here it is worth reflecting   practitioners for injury, injured parties      immunity from criminal proceedings,          standard but a serious departure from           openness and low blame should be                by the police, courts and the UK GMC1. The
       on some of the issues this case has brought    can instead seek compensation through          criminal prosecution in the absence of ill   the proper standard of care, the question       promoted in the health service, in order to     outcome of the UK Government’s review is
       into focus, how this area of criminal law                                                                                                  of the doctor being blameworthy to a            learn from mistakes. Is it then in the public
                                                      a bureaucratic process. This means             intent is seen as purposeless.                                                                                                               due to be published in the coming months
       has developed in different ways in different                                                                                               criminal extent may arise. It is important      interest to pursue criminal prosecutions of
                                                      there are fewer barriers to doctors being                                                                                                                                                   and I know it will be closely scrutinised
       countries, and how (for some) it may                                                          THE POSITION IN ENGLAND AND WALES            to stress that the standard the doctor is       individual healthcare professionals? While
                                                      entirely candid with patients when things                                                                                                                                                   across the New Zealand medical
       develop in the wake of this case.                                                                                                          being measured against at this stage is         such prosecutions are rare, their effect
                                                      go wrong. That said, if the ACC identifies     GNM is a common law offence in England                                                                                                       community and beyond.
                                                                                                                                                  one set by another doctor, not by a lawyer      on staff perception and morale is greatly
                                                      a risk to the public health and safety, they   and Wales and has evolved from the                                                           magnified.                                      MPS has a wealth of experience in
       THE POSITION IN NEW ZEALAND                                                                                                                or the police. Without a very critical
                                                      may refer the matter to the MCNZ to            same set of tests that apply to the civil                                                                                                    supporting doctors faced with GNM
       In New Zealand there is a statutory            consider a doctor’s competence.                                                             independent medical report, criminal            The culpable homicide law, and its
       definition of GNM that mirrors the                                                            test for negligence. In order to secure a    prosecution will not get off the ground.        application in Scotland, has seen one           charges. Though it seems unlikely due
                                                      The Health and Disability Commissioner         conviction, firstly it must be shown that                                                    attempted prosecution resulting in              to the differences between the New
       English legal test. Manslaughter by gross
                                                      Health care professionals may not be           the individual doctor in question owed       Next, when the matter has been fully            acquittal.                                      Zealand system and the England/Wales
       negligence is a statutory offence under
                                                      accountable through the Civil Courts           the patient a duty of care; secondly,        investigated and such medical expert                                                            equivalent, if a doctor in New Zealand
       the Crimes Act 1961 making it possible
                                                      in New Zealand but they can be held            that the doctor breached that duty of        opinion is forthcoming the case may             CONCLUSION                                      was to be charged with GNM as a result
       for New Zealand courts to treat the
                                                      to account by the Health and Disability        care and thirdly, that the breach of duty    be referred by the police or Coroner            The Dr Bawa-Garba case has been                 of an adverse patient outcome, MPS has
       circumstances giving rise to the Dr Bawa-
                                                      Commissioner (HDC) if it is thought that       caused the patient harm. In civil cases      to the Crown Prosecution Service. The           something of a watershed in the history         access to the most experienced lawyers
       Garba case in a similar fashion to the
                                                      they have infringed patient rights, as set     these tests are used to establish whether    prosecutor must decide whether or not a                                                         and barristers in the country to instruct in
       English courts. However, for over 20 years                                                                                                                                                 of professional accountability. It has
                                                      out by the Code of Patient’s Rights. Where     compensation is payable to redress the       prosecution is in the public interest and                                                       defence of our members.
       there have been no GNM prosecutions in                                                                                                                                                     highlighted the tension between the open,
                                                      the HDC has serious concerns about an          harm. In the criminal arena, if the harm     if there is a reasonable prospect of
       New Zealand and the system for holding                                                                                                                                                     learning culture we wish to see and an          In addition, MPS is constantly monitoring
                                                      individual’s conduct or performance they       caused was the patient’s death then the      a conviction.
       doctors to account has developed in a                                                                                                                                                      adversarial and punitive approach to            the New Zealand medicolegal environment,
       very different way. Two distinct bodies        can refer them to the Health Practitioners     possibility of a GNM prosecution arises.                                                     medical errors.
                                                                                                                                                  THE POSITION IN SCOTLAND                                                                        and if we noticed a change in how the
       unique to New Zealand, are worth               Disciplinary Tribunal and the MCNZ.            The final hurdle that needs to be cleared
                                                                                                                                                  Interestingly, the criminal law in Scotland     The few health care professionals who           general public and relevant authorities
       considering because their influence, in        Professional failings are therefore usually    to secure a conviction is that the jury                                                                                                      approach the question of criminal
                                                                                                                                                  has developed rather differently to that        wilfully set out to harm patients, or are
       my opinion, significantly reduces the          regarded as a regulatory, rather than          must be satisfied beyond reasonable                                                                                                          prosecution against medical practitioners,
                                                                                                                                                  in England and Wales. Scotland has a            reckless, should face criminal charges.
       likelihood of such prosecutions occurring      criminal matter. The main purpose of           doubt that the level of negligence           separate legal system; manslaughter is                                                          we will use our influence and resources to
                                                                                                                                                                                                  However, the vast majority of health
       in New Zealand.                                criminal prosecution is to punish the          is ‘gross’.                                  not a term that features and the nearest                                                        challenge those who blame and castigate
                                                                                                                                                                                                  care professionals - who make mistakes
                                                                                                                                                  comparable offence is culpable homicide         while working under difficult and complex       hard-working doctors and we will continue
                                                                                                                                                  which is defined as the killing of a person     conditions – should not be labelled as          to protect the interests of members.
                                                                                                                                                  in circumstances which are neither              criminals.
                                                                                                                                                  accidental nor justified but where the                                                          REFERENCE
                                                                                                                                                  wicked intent to kill required for murder,      In England and Wales, MPS has provided
       “This case has highlighted the tension between the open, learning culture we wish to see and an                                            is absent. In short, the unlawful act giving    evidence to the UK Government’s rapid           1. https://www.medicalprotection.org/uk/about-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     mps/our-policy-work/consultation-responses/
       adversarial and punitive approach to medical errors.”                                                                                      rise to the death must be intentional or, at    review into GNM in healthcare. At the              consultation-responses/evidence-to-the-
                                                                                                                                                  least, reckless and/or grossly careless.        heart of our recommendations, is a call            professor-sir-norman-williams-review

8 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   9
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
L-R, Back: Drs Julian Vyas, Paul Wilson, Seton Henderson, Julian Fuller, Tim Frendin.
                                                                                                                                                           Front: Andrew Ewens, Angela Freschini, Murray Barclay, Katie Ben, Annette van Zeist-Jongman, Hein Stander.

       YOUR NATIONAL EXECUTIVE
                                                                                                                                  YOUR ASMS BRANCH OFFICERS FOR THE SAME PERIOD ARE:

       AND BRANCH OFFICERS
                                                                                                                                   REGION               PRESIDENT            VICE-PRESIDENT            REGION                PRESIDENT             VICE-PRESIDENT
                                                                                                                                   Northland            Jenny Henry          Ian Page                  Whanganui             Bernd Kraus           Mark Van De Vyver
                                                                                                                                   Waitemata            Jonathan             Keat Lee                  Palmerston North      Andrew Spiers         John Bourke
                                                                                                                                                        Casement                                       Wairarapa             Norman Gray           Nicholas Pascoe
            THE ASMS NATIONAL EXECUTIVE             • Hein Stander, Immediate Past           • Tim Frendin, geriatric medicine,    Auckland             Helen Pilmore        Susan Farrelly            Hutt Valley           Neil Stephen          Tanya Wilton
            FOR THE THREE YEARS TO 2021 IS:           President, paediatrician, Tairawhiti     Hawke’s Bay                         Counties Manukau     Sylvia Boys          VACANT                    Wellington            Justin Barry-Walsh    Alain Marcuse
            • Murray Barclay, National President,   • Julian Vyas, paediatrics, Auckland     • Angela Freschini, anaesthesia,      Waikato              Dara Las Heras       Alison Stearn
              gastroenterologist, Canterbury                                                   Tairawhiti                                                                                              Marlborough           Jeremy Stevens        Graeme French
                                                    • Andrew Ewens, emergency medicine,
                                                                                                                                   Tauranga             Rod Gouldson         William McAuley           Nelson                Katie Ben             Gareth Harris
            • Julian Fuller, Vice-President,          Waitemata                              • Seton Henderson, intensive care,
              anaesthetist, Waitemata               • Annette van Zeist-Jongman,               Canterbury                          Taranaki             Allister Williams    Allan Binnie              West Coast            Stuart Mologne        VACANT
            • Paul Wilson, National Secretary,        psychiatry, Waikato                    • Katie Ben, anaesthesia, Nelson      Rotorua              Andrew Robinson      Philip Gartland           Canterbury            Geoff Shaw            Siobhan Cross
              anaesthetist, Bay of Plenty                                                      Marlborough.
                                                                                                                                   Whakatane            Richard Forster      Kathy Sutton              South Canterbury      Matthew Hills         Peter Doran
                                                                                                                                   Tairawhiti           Mary Stonehouse      William Weiderman         Otago                 Chris Wisely          John Chambers
                                                                                                                                   Hawke’s Bay          Kai Haidekker        Debra Chalmers            Southland             Roger Wandless        Leonard Chia

                                                                                                                                  Thank you to everyone who put their hand up for either the National Executive or Branch Officer positions. We appreciate your
                                                                                                                                  willingness to advocate and support your medical colleagues, and this shows the Association is in good heart. We would also like to
                                                                                                                                  acknowledge those members of the National Executive and Branch Officers who decided not to stand for re-election, and thank you for
                                                                                                                                  your efforts and ongoing commitment.

10 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                        WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   11
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
80%
                                                                                                                                           ASMS needs to take a strong role in advocating                                                                          70%
                                                                                                                                           for the quality and equity of health care for

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Prevalence of personal burnout
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   60%
                                                                                                                                           patients in New Zealand.                                                                                                                                               Female
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   50%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   40%

                                                                                                                                                      Greece                                                                                                       30%                                            Male
                                                                                                                                                            Italy
                                                                                                                                              Czech Republic                                                                                                       20%
                                                                                                                                                       Austria
                                                                                                                                                         Latvia                                                                                                    10%
                                                                                                                                                      Estonia
                                                                                                                                                         Spain
                                                                                                                                                    Germany                                                                                                        0%
                                                                                                                                                  Switzerland                                                                                                             30-39         40-49             50-59             60 or
                                                                                                                                                United States                                                                                                                                                                over
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Age group
                                                                                                                                                     Portugal
                                                                                                                                                      Sweden                                                                                                         Figure 2: Prevalence of burnout related to
                                                                                                                                                       Iceland
                                                                                                                                                          Israel                                                                                                                age group and gender
                                                                                                                                              United Kingdom

                                                                          RESPONDING
                                                                                                                                                     Slovenia
                                                                                                                                                 Luxembourg                                                                                                        80%
                                                                                                                                                        Poland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   70%

                                                                          TO THE
                                                                                                                                                  Netherlands

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               % Reporting weekly/daily bullying
                                                                                                                                                      Finland
                                                                                                                                                      Belgium                                                                                                      60%
                                                                                                                                                        France

                                                                          CHALLENGES
                                                                                                                                                      Norway                                                                                                       50%
                                                                                                                                                     Denmark
                                                                                                                                                       Ireland                                                                                                     40%
                                                                                                                                                     Australia

                                                                          AHEAD
                                                                                                                                                         Korea
                                                                                                                                                       Mexico                                                                                                      30%
                                                                                                                                                      Canada
                                                                                                                                                New Zealand                                                                                                        20%
                                                                                                                                                        Turkey
        PROF MURRAY BARCLAY | ASMS NATIONAL PRESIDENT                                                                                                     Chile                                                                                                    10%

                                                                                                                                                                    0   1        2         3        4       5                                                      0%
                                                                                                                                                                        Practising specialists per 1000                                                                        Low              Average              High

       B   ecoming President of ASMS is not
           something I imagined when I was
       approached six years ago to join the
                                                 being President of the New Zealand
                                                 societies of gastroenterology and clinical
                                                 pharmacology, and clinical directorship.
                                                                                               WHAT WE KNOW
                                                                                               In 2013, New Zealand ranked near the
                                                                                                                                                                        population in OECD countries
                                                                                                                                                 Figure 1: Practising specialists per 1000 population
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Level of workplace demand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Figure 3: Bullying prevalence related to
                                                                                               bottom of OECD countries for number                            in OECD countries in 2013                                                                                             workload demands
       National Executive. As I came to grips                                                  of medical specialists per head of
                                                 What is apparent from the ASMS
       with the Executive functions, I became    research and member feedback is               population (figure 1). Updated data is
       increasingly involved in the research     that the New Zealand senior medical           being sought but requires validation.
       activities of ASMS, particularly senior   workforce has some major problems
       doctor understaffing, and the well-                                                     Medical staff burnout is topical globally   (figure 3) along with reduced support               The ongoing series of DHB clinical                                                 ASMS is a mature organisation, almost
                                                 that need addressing urgently to enable       but in New Zealand our frankly tragic       from peers or non-clinical managers.                director surveys on workload and FTE                                               30 years in existence, and its activities
       being issues of burnout, bullying, and    New Zealanders to get the medical care        burnout rate of 50% (figure 2) looks                                                            requirements appears to be showing                                                 have grown beyond contract negotation.
       presenteeism. My research background      they deserve. When asked to be ASMS                                                       Disturbingly, burnout and bullying are
                                                                                               to be higher than in other countries                                                            consistently that New Zealand needs                                                We now deal with issues around health
       meant that I was keen to see good data    President, it was the findings of the                                                     clearly even more of a problem for female           25% more senior doctors per head of
                                                                                               where burnout has been studied. The                                                                                                                                                advocacy, climate change, healthy eating,
       on these important issues to help drive   research that convinced me this might         consequences of burnout are serious         senior medical staff (figure 2) with, in            population just to deal with current                                               doctor well-being, gender inequity and
       improvement. I was therefore very         be worthwhile as it was clear that further    for these senior doctors and for their      particular, a burnout rate 20% higher               workload expectations, let alone to                                                others. Feedback from members has
       supportive of increasing the research     work needed to be done to both define         patients who fail to get the health         than males at each age band (70%                    provide optimal health care following full                                         been positive in respect of these ASMS
       capacity of ASMS with highly competent    these problems, but more importantly to       care benefits that result from proper       in young female senior doctors) and a               consideration of unmet need.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  directions but it is probably a good time
       staff. We certainly have those now.       attempt to bring about improvements.          engagement with their doctor. High          bullying rate of 40% versus 32%.
                                                                                                                                                                                               Our current best tool in the MECA                                                  to reflect on priorities. ASMS will therefore
       For those who don’t know me, I work       I have found that the ASMS team and           workload is at least one of the factors     WHAT FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS?                      for addressing departmental FTE                                                    be seeking views from members within the
       as a gastroenterologist and clinical      national executive are exceptional in their   predicting burnout.                                                                             requirements is regular job-sizing. In                                             next year to help fine-tune priorities.
                                                                                                                                           At the time of MECA negotiations, the role          parallel, it may be that service-sizing that
       pharmacologist at CDHB. I am also a       approach and passion. All are dedicated       More recently, we have documented high
                                                                                                                                           of ASMS needs to be to negotiate for the            takes into consideration unmet health                                              So there is plenty to do, but also some very
       Clinical Professor with the University    to improving the lot of senior medical        rates of bullying in the New Zealand
                                                 staff in New Zealand, and improving the                                                   best possible conditions for members. In            need may further define and address                                                good people doing it at ASMS. During my
       of Otago. I grew up in small town New                                                   senior medical workforce, including 38%
       Zealand, Balclutha, went through Otago    quality and equity of health care in NZ.                                                  between MECA negotiations, however, it              requirements. Service and job-sizing                                               time on the Executive so far I have been
                                                                                               experiencing this at least weekly and
       Medical School, have a grown family and   This makes working with them a pleasure                                                   seems clear that ASMS needs to take a               requires significant resourcing from DHBs                                          fortunate to observe the great leadership
                                                                                               67% witnessing bullying at least weekly.
       live on the rural edge of Christchurch.   that generates enthusiasm and hope that       Again, high workplace demand was            strong role in advocating for the quality and       and ASMS but the outcomes should more                                              styles of Drs Jeff Brown and Hein Stander
       My leadership experience includes         positive changes can be made.                 strongly associated with risk of bullying   equity of health care for patients in New           than compensate. ASMS will be helping                                              who have brought a solidity, good humour
                                                                                                                                           Zealand. In relation to senior medical staff,       to drive these initiatives whenever and                                            and strength of purpose to the role that I
                                                                                                                                           the most obvious thing that needs to occur          wherever possible.                                                                 hope I can, at least partly, replicate. And I
                                                                                                                                           is a sharp increase in senior doctor numbers        The gender inequity highlighted in our                                             look forward to the next three years with
                                                                                                                                           to combat unmanageable and dangerous                surveys over the past two years requires                                           the hope that we can help bring about
                                                                                                                                           workloads. Senior staff also need adequate          further exploration and definition with a                                          some significant improvements in health
       The New Zealand senior medical workforce has some major problems that need addressing                                               time to consider service reconfiguration that       view to providing some solutions for our                                           care in New Zealand, and in particular,
       urgently to enable New Zealanders to get the medical care they deserve.                                                             provides better, more manageable health             female senior medical staff. I believe this is                                     better working conditions and job
                                                                                                                                           care for patients.                                  now a high priority for ASMS.                                                      satisfaction for members.

12 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   13
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
When pressure goes on ED,
                                                                                                                                                    every part of the hospital
                                                                                                                                                                                                 THE RISE IN
                                                                                                                                                                                                 ACUTES
                                                                                                                                                    system becomes stressed.

                                                                                                                                                                                                 ANGELA BELICH | ASMS DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

                                                                                                                                                                                                 At many of our Joint Consultation            numbers insufficient for the level of
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Committees, where ASMS members               acuity, primary care presentations
                                                                                                                                                                                                 met with DHB management, members             greater than the degree of
                                                                                                                                                                                                 raised the issue of the rise in acute        population growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                 presentation which had not showed
                                                                                                                                                                                                 the usual summer lull but continued        • Wairarapa – higher than average
                                                                                                                                                                                                 to be high. The bad flu season in the        demand, shortfalls have meant the
                                                                                                                                                                                                 northern hemisphere also contributed         cancelation of electives
                                                                                                                                                                                                 to a gathering sense of doom. The          • Hutt Valley - hospital already
                                                                                                                                                                                                 following issues were noted (some
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              full on a number of occasions as
                                                                                                                                                                                                 meetings did not discuss the issue):
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              of February, optimistic that full
                                                                                                                                                                                                 • Northland – acute demand                   complement of nurses this year,
                                                                                                                                                                                                   increasing, no summer decline in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              looking at an escalation plan for ED
                                                                                                                                                                                                   presentations, theatres stretched,
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ED under pressure due to bed block       • West Coast – pressure on primary
                                                                                                                                                                                                 • Waitemata – winter planning                care meant overflow pressure
                                                                                                                                                                                                   to minimise the impact of flu,             on ED.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   vaccinations a big emphasis

       PREPARING FOR A TOUGH                                                                                                                                                                       particularly of staff                    WHAT SHOULD ASMS MEMBERS
                                                                                                                                                                                                 • Auckland - little room to                DO?

       WINTER IN HOSPITAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                   accommodate surges as serves as          1. Get vaccinated and make sure your
                                                                                                                                                                                                   acute hospital for the rest of the          colleagues get vaccinated too
                                                                                                                                                                                                   country; some services very vulnerable
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2. Participate as fully as you can in

       EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS
                                                                                                                                                                                                 • Counties Manukau - hospital at             planning for this winter
                                                                                                                                                                                                   nearly full capacity with 21 lists
                                                                                                                                                                                                   being cancelled at the date of the       3. If you are too tired or sick, or you
                                                                                                                                                                                                   JCC, 14% growth in acute demand             see colleagues who are too tired or
                                                                                                                                                                               DR JOHN BONNING     over the last five years without            sick to work, take leave or take a
                                                                                                                                                                                                   corresponding increase in beds,             break. If you cannot work safely, you
                                                                                                                                                                                                   resilience is complicated by low            cannot give patients safe care
                                                                                                                                                                                                   morale among staff, many of whom
       In New Zealand, the summer months are historically a time of relative quiet but not this year, with a number of emergency
        departments feeling under pressure even over summer (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12004291).
       Whilst there is usually a 4-6% increase in presentations year on year in Waikato Hospital, there was a 19% increase in presentations in
                                                                                                                                                    “Ambulance ramping (being unable to
                                                                                                                                                    unload patients from ambulances due to
                                                                                                                                                    no physical space being available in ED
                                                                                                                                                                                                   perceive the DHBs problems as
                                                                                                                                                                                                   management’s fault
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4. Make sure you are familiar with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               the Medical Council Statement on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               managing in a situation of resource
       February/March compared to 2017.                                                                                                             to put them) will happen again this year     • Waikato - see accompanying article
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               constraint https://www.mcnz.org.
                                                                                                                                                    (having happened in NZ for the first time      for John Bonning’s assessment
       “It’s going to be pretty torrid this winter,”   “At Waikato Hospital’s emergency               roads, older people living longer, more                                                                                                  nz/assets/News-and-Publications/
                                                                                                                                                    in 2017 and happening in Australia for a     • Lakes – very busy, higher number of
       says Waikato Hospital emergency                 department, there’s been a nearly 50%          falls, and higher levels of unmet health      decade) and we’ll see people languishing                                                   Statements/Safe-practice-in-
                                                                                                                                                                                                   presentations compared with last
       physician John Bonning, who’s also              increase in presentations between April        need. We’d arrive at work at 8 o’clock in     in ED corridors again. It will be tough to                                                 an-environment-of-resource-
                                                                                                                                                                                                   year; at the time of the meeting, four
       the New Zealand faculty chair of the            2011 and April 2018. We’re talking over        the morning and there would be over 20        find a bed and people will end up staying                                                  limitation.pdf
                                                                                                                                                                                                   patients in ED under the influence of
                                                       58,000 presentations pa to Waikato             patients waiting for inpatient bed spaces     many hours in ED.
       Australasian College for Emergency                                                                                                                                                          methamphetamine                          5. Schedule breaks, weekends, leave
                                                       ED in 2010, increasing to over 63,000          which were not available. And that was just
       Medicine (ACEM).                                                                               in April before winter had started.”          “When pressure goes on ED, every part of     • Bay of Plenty - surge in                    and keep to them, and support your
                                                       in 2011 (8% increase) after the new ED
                                                                                                                                                    the hospital system becomes stressed, and      presentations at Whakatane,                 colleagues to do so
       “We’re going to be flooded in particular        opened, to well over 85,000 in 2017.           He says people with minor complaints
                                                                                                                                                    EDs are not the place to manage patients       unanticipated number of patients
       with older people, particularly with chronic                                                   are not the cause of the clogged                                                                                                      6. Reiterate to your managers, your
                                                       “That is a nearly 70% increase over 7                                                        ongoing health needs for hours on end          using hospitals
       illness, as well as children. Not just at                                                      hospital system.                                                                                                                         Chief Executive, your Board, the
                                                       years. At the same time, the population                                                      once their acute needs have been met.”       • Tairawhiti - stress on services due to
       Waikato – hospitals all around the country      hasn’t grown by anywhere near that                                                                                                                                                      Minister and the Government that
                                                                                                      “We’re not busy because patients can’t                                                       understaffing
       are in a similar situation. Hospitals have      proportion over that period so the increase                                                  He says patients can help by taking                                                        the solution is adequate staffing and
                                                                                                      see their GP for something minor or                                                        • Taranaki - long-term consistent
       been operating well above 80% inpatient         is really due to increased burden of chronic   because they’d stood on some Lego. We’re      some responsibility for their own health                                                   decent accommodation, and that
                                                                                                                                                    care, ensuring that they are vaccinated,       increase in demand, DHB blindsided
       bed capacity and demand has gone                disease, diabetes, heart and respiratory       dealing with a lot of very sick people, and                                                                                              today’s situation is the result of the
                                                                                                                                                    don’t smoke, that they drink alcohol in        by rise in demand over Christmas,
       right up.                                       illness, more trauma, more cars on the         it’s going to increase.                                                                                                                  under-resourcing of the past. Job
                                                                                                                                                    moderation, and are aware of their sugar       number of nurses the critical factor;
                                                                                                                                                    intake. Clinicians and patients also need      bed block had a negative effect             sizing should be adequate to cope
                                                                                                                                                    to be aware of the Choosing Wisely             on electives                                with surges, and this for many DHBs
                                                                                                                                                    initiative (www.choosingwisely.org.nz) to    • Hawkes Bay - second year in a               is the second or third year where
                                                                                                                                                    ensure limited health care resources are       row with no summer drop off, ED             acutes have risen faster than the
       We’re not busy because patients can’t see their GP for something minor or because they’d                                                     used rationally.                               designed to take 27,000 patients in         population and there has been no
                                                                                                                                                                                                   2021 now seeing 46,000, nursing             summer lull.
       stood on some Lego. We’re dealing with a lot of very sick people, and it’s going to increase.                                                “We all need to help to manage our limited
                                                                                                                                                    health care resource as best we can.”

14 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   15
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
You cannot run down health funding by $2 billion without consequences.                                                                       Years of funding shortfalls merely shift the costs, both financially and socially, downstream.

                                                                                                                                                    increased by 1.8 million, though GPs are      We want to make sure people get the                                would be an even tighter bottleneck to
                                                                                                                                                    still seeing about 80% of the patients. The   health care they need to stay well. Early                          accessing non-acute hospital care, which
                                                                                                                                                    population grew by an estimated 11.4%         intervention and prevention work can also                          in turn would create greater pressure
                                                                                                                                                    over the same period.                         help take pressure off our hospitals and                           on primary care and possibly, eventually,

       THIS YEAR’S BUDGET HAS
                                                                                                                                                                                                  specialist services.”                                              acute services.
                                                                                                                                                    WHY THE INCREASE IN ‘ACUTES’?
                                                                                                                                                                                                  However, the evidence from New Zealand                             The evidence indicates clearly that both
                                                                                                                                                    There will be many factors contributing       and overseas indicates that while measures                         primary care and hospital care services

           STOPPED THE BLEEDING,
                                                                                                                                                    to the rise in acute hospital admissions.     to improve access to primary care are                              require significant boosts in resources.
                                                                                                                                                    Overseas studies indicate common              much needed, they do not necessarily                               And studies looking at interventions to
                                                                                                                                                    patient factors are related to aging, low     reduce the use or need of hospital care.

           BUT WHAT NEXT?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     reduce acute hospital admission suggest
                                                                                                                                                    socioeconomic status, lower educational       The dynamics are more complex.                                     a promising solution to reducing acute
                                                                                                                                                    attainment, chronic disease and
                                                                                                                                                    multimorbidity. In New Zealand, additional    If, under continuing budget constraint,                            hospital admission is in improving the way
                                                                                                                                                    factors will be high levels of unmet need     the ‘strong focus’ on primary care is code                         the two parts of the health system work
        LYNDON KEENE | ASMS DIRECTOR OF POLICY AND RESEARCH                                                                                         for primary and secondary care and            for a ‘rob Peter to pay Paul’ approach to                          together. These issues will be examined
                                                                                                                                                    mental health care, along with underlying     health service funding, the likely outcome                         further in future articles.
                                                                                                                                                    inequalities. Poverty, poor housing, high
                                                                                                                                                    and growing rates of obesity are all well-                         ACUTE AND NON-ACUTE HOSPITAL DISCHARGES

       C   ouncil of Trade Unions (CTU) economist Bill Rosenberg described the Government’s 2018 Budget as a ‘stop the bleeding’
           budget, but warned that the body of public services is still in dire straits: “While the bleeding may have stopped, we still have to
       get the patient well again.”
                                                                                                                                                    documented issues.
                                                                                                                                                    Despite the increased use of primary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (ACTUAL AND CASE-WEIGHTED [CWD]), 2010/11 TO 2016/17

                                                                                                                                                    health care, many people continue to                               Acute actual            Acute cwd              Non-acute cwd                 Non-acute actual
       The Health budget is a good example.             You cannot run down health funding by          acute service need. Hospital day cases
                                                                                                                                                    face barriers to those services. The
       For the first time since at least 2010,          $2 billion dollars without consequences.       (non-overnight stays) are not included                                                     700,000
                                                                                                                                                    New Zealand Health Survey 2015/16
       Vote Health appears to have received             The ASMS has long argued that years of         in this data but other Ministry of Health
                                                                                                                                                    shows 29% of adults reported one or
       sufficient funding ($863 million additional      funding shortfalls merely shift the costs,     reports indicate a 16.9% rise from 2010/11
                                                                                                                                                    more types of unmet need for primary
       operational funding) to cover rising costs       both financially and socially, downstream.     to 2014/15 (the latest data published) –
                                                                                                                                                    health. The most common reasons for
       and demographic pressures, compared with         Those downstream effects are now               again, well above the population increase
                                                                                                                                                    this unmet need were being unable to get      600,000
       the previous year, as well as pay for new        evident in the trends showing increasing       of 4.8% for that period.
                                                                                                                                                    an appointment at their usual medical
       initiatives such as reducing primary care fees   health service use is far outstripping the
                                                                                                       Increases in Emergency Department            centre within 24 hours, and the cost of
       for people on low incomes and extending          rates of population growth, including
                                                                                                       (ED) presentations and the use of Mental     GP services. Cost barriers to primary
       free general practitioner visits to children     public hospital admissions.                    Health and Addiction Services (MHA)          health services for children have been
       under 14. At the time of writing there                                                                                                                                                     500,000
                                                        The number of public hospital inpatients       are also far exceeding the growth in         reduced through increased subsidies
       remains a number of unknowns, however,
                                                        (excluding mental health and addiction         population. Waikato District Health          to general practices. However, in
       such as the outcome of pay negotiations
                                                        services) rose by 14.1% from 2010/11           Board’s ED, for example, has seen an         2015/16 nearly a quarter of children still
       with nurses, allied health staff and others,
                                                        to 2016/17 (13.2% when adjusted for            increase of presentations approaching        experienced one or more access barriers,
       and the pay equity settlements such as for
                                                        ‘caseweights’), while the population grew by   70% in seven years (see separate article     including difficulties in getting timely
       mental health care and support workers.                                                                                                                                                    400,000

                                                        9.3%. This growth is due largely to a 20.0%    in this issue of The Specialist). And the    appointments. The location of a primary
       CTU-ASMS analyses of the Health                                                                 number of unique ‘clients seen’ by MHA       care practice (and the local ED), and the
                                                        increase in acute inpatients over that
       budgets have estimated that years of                                                            service teams grew by 50% in the years       ability to get a convenient appointment
                                                        period – more than twice the population
       funding shortfalls have accumulated                                                             2008/09 to 2015/16. Further, many of         with a primary care practitioner are
                                                        growth. When adjusted by caseweight,
       to the extent that if this year’s health                                                        those clients are seen more than once        commonly cited barriers to primary care       300,000
                                                        acute inpatients increased by 14.2%.
       funding was to be restored in real terms to                                                     in any given year, as indicated in data      both here and overseas.
       2010 levels (when CTU analyses began),           The rapid growth in acute cases appears        showing ‘new referrals’ to MHA triage
       it would have needed an additional               to have squeezed out non-acute patients,                                                    HOW WILL THE GOVERNMENT
                                                                                                       teams increased by 62% over the five
       $2.7 billion, so is nearly $2 billion short      whose numbers grew by just 5.3% over           years from 2010/11 to 2015/16 (earlier       RESPOND?                                      200,000
       of that mark. No one would expect a              the same period. That becomes a 12.0%          data is less robust).                        The data indicate growing pressure in
       funding shortfall of such magnitude to           increase, however, when adjusted by case-                                                   every part of the system. The question
       be addressed in a single budget, but             weight, indicating the non-acute cases         The big increase in acute hospital service
                                                                                                                                                    now is how the Government will respond
       whether the public health system is to           are becoming more complex, possibly an         needs has occurred as primary care
                                                                                                                                                    while it is highly constrained by ‘Budget
       operate more efficiently and effectively,        effect of the aging population.                use is also growing ahead of population                                                     100,000
                                                                                                                                                    Responsibility Rules’ limiting government
       whether it is to provide timely responses                                                       growth. Between 2008/09 and 2016/17,
                                                        The headcount growth of non-acute                                                           spending and debt.
       to New Zealand’s growing health needs                                                           primary care consultations increased by
       and address unmet need, whether it is to         patients being less than population            24.3%. Much of that is due to more nurse     When Health Minister David Clark
       provide staffing levels that are safe for        growth suggests a growing but                  consultations, which grew by 115.1%, while   announced a major review of the health
                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
       both patients and those providing the            unmeasured level of unmet need for             general practitioner consultations grew      system recently, he stressed that the                          2010/11         2011/12          2012/13          2013/14         2014/15            2015/16        2016/17
       care, is all dependent on a restoration to       people with non-acute conditions, which        by 12.6%. GP consultations increased         review would include “a strong focus
       2010 funding levels – and more.                  may in turn be contributing to growing         by 1.5 million, while nurse consultation     on primary and community-based care.          Source: Ministry of Health Caseload Monitoring Reports (data extracted from Excel spreadsheets)

       The evidence indicates clearly that both primary care and hospital care services require significant                                         Increasing health service use is far outstripping the rates of population growth, including public
       boosts in resources.                                                                                                                         hospital admissions.

16 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   17
WHICH WAY, MINISTER CLARK? | P3 - ASMS
WAGE AND SALARY SHARE OF GROSS DOMESTIC                                                                                            REAL COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES PER HOUR
                                                                                                                                                                   INCOME COMPARED TO OECD MEDIAN                                                                                                 COMPARED TO SHARING THE LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY
                                                                                                                                                                         SOURCES: AMECO DATABASE, AUTHOR’S CALCULATIONS, SNZ                                                                                    GAINS 1989-2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       MARCH 2017 DOLLARS, MEASURED SECTOR

                                                                                                                                                    65                                                                                                                                         $41.00

                                                                                                                                                    63                                                                                                                                         $39.00

                                                                                                                                                   60                                                                                                                                          $37.00

                                                                                                                                                    58                                                                                                                                         $35.00

                                                                                                                                                    55                                                                                                                                         $33.00

                                                                             WAGE-LED                                                               53                                                                                                                                         $31.00

                                                                             GROWTH:
                                                                                                                                                   50                                                                                                                                          $29.00

                                                                                                                                                    48                                                                                                                                         $27.00

                                                                             HOW LOW                                                                45                                                                                                                                         $25.00

                                                                                                                                                         1960

                                                                                                                                                                1963

                                                                                                                                                                       1966

                                                                                                                                                                              1969

                                                                                                                                                                                     1972

                                                                                                                                                                                            1975

                                                                                                                                                                                                   1978

                                                                                                                                                                                                          1981

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1984

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1987

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1990

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1993

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1996

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1999

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2002

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2005

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1989
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1990
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1991
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1992
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1993
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1994
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1995
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1997
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2016
                                                                             WAGES                                                                                                     Denmark                   OECD Median                    New Zealand                                             If wages had followed productivity gains         Wage adjusted by living costs (CPI)

                                                                             HOLD BACK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Wage adjusted by employers’ revenue (the GDP deflator)

                                                                             PROGRESS                                                             inequality would have a powerful impact on
                                                                                                                                                  overall inequality. There is ample evidence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       mathematical achievement and literacy,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       worse infant mortality, more homicides,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              But wages have not kept up with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              productivity – see the graph above1. That
        DR BILL ROSENBERG | COUNCIL OF TRADE UNIONS ECONOMIST AND POLICY DIRECTOR                                                                 that deunionisation has been a significant                                                           high imprisonment rates, more births to                                is the case in the US and other parts of
                                                                                                                                                  cause of rising income inequality (eg, D. E.                                                         teenage mothers, lowered trust, more                                   the world.
                                                                                                                                                  Card, Lemieux, & Riddell, 2003; D. Card,                                                             obesity, poorer mental health, drug and
                                                                                                                                                  Lemieux, & Riddell, 2004; DiNardo, Fortin,                                                                                                                                  Productivity does need to rise for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       alcohol addiction, and decreased

       W    e are frequently told “You can’t raise wages before you raise productivity”. But productivity is barely rising: employers are         & Lemieux, 1995; Jaumotte & Buitron, 2015;                                                                                                                                  sustainable increases in wages in the long
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       social mobility.
            not investing to raise it. Why not? Perhaps they don’t feel the need to because wages are kept low. Perhaps raising wages             Koske, Fournier, & Wanner, 2012; Western                                                                                                                                    run – but there is nothing automatic about
       would encourage productivity to rise, funding new wage rises and creating a virtuous spiral of rising wages and productivity. As I         & Rosenfeld, 2011). With low wages, the tax                                                       • It can increase financial instability and                               (real) wages following productivity. Since
       show below, there is good logic and evidence that that could be true.                                                                      and benefit systems have much more work                                                             crises. For example, IMF researchers                                    the collective wage setting system was
                                                                                                                                                  to do to redistribute income.                                                                       Michael Kumhof and Romain Rancière                                      largely destroyed outside the state sector
       WAGES ARE IMPORTANT SOCIALLY                 otherwise high income countries. New          Families, accommodation supplements                                                                                                                 (2010a, 2010b, 2011) find evidence                                      in the 1991 Employment Contracts Act, that
       AND ECONOMICALLY…                            Zealand’s low share of income going to        and so on.                                      …WHICH HAS BAD SOCIAL AND                                                                           of increasing financial instability as                                  has not been the case. So to say wages
                                                    wages is one indicator, as the figure on                                                      ECONOMIC EFFECTS                                                                                    inequality grows due to low and middle                                  must follow productivity is simplistic.
       Wages (including salaries) are important     the right shows. Another is the dominance     LOW WAGES CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH                                                                                                                        income earners becoming increasingly
       socially as well as economically. They                                                     INCOME INEQUALITY…                              It’s worth remembering some of the reasons                                                          indebted in order to make ends meet.                                    …AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IS
                                                    of low wage industries in our economy,                                                        high levels of inequality are bad.
       are easily the most important way that       particularly in the export sector –                                                                                                                                                               One of Kumhof and Rancière’s solutions                                  CHRONICALLY WEAK
       employees get a share of the income their                                                  The wage problem is also about how
                                                    agriculture and tourism. Qualifications,                                                      • It can lead to social breakdown. There’s                                                          is restoring workers earnings through
                                                                                                  income is distributed: income inequality                                                                                                                                                                                    But New Zealand has another problem:
       work creates so they and their families      particularly vocational ones, are poorly                                                        evidence from both common experience                                                              strengthening collective bargaining.
                                                                                                  remains high in New Zealand (see Perry                                                                                                                                                                                      chronically weak productivity growth.
       can live decent lives. On average, 60% of    rewarded in higher wages (eg, Crichton,                                                         and carefully designed experiments that
                                                                                                  again). In the CTU’s August Bulletin (http://                                                                                                     • It can worsen economic growth. As                                       There is no single simple answer as to why,
       the incomes of New Zealand households        2009; Crichton & Dixon, 2011; Zuccollo,                                                         people dislike unfair shares. With high
                                                                                                  www.union.org.nz/economicbulletin192/),                                                                                                             inequality rises, there is evidence for                                 but perhaps an important reason is low
       comes from wages (and even more in           Maani, Kaye-Blake, & Zeng, 2013). We                                                            inequality, people feel they are being
                                                                                                  I summarised recent research showing                                                                                                                both more intermittent growth (eg, A. G.                                wages itself.
       prime working age households).               have too many working poor (four out of                                                         treated unfairly, social tensions rise,
                                                                                                  growing wage inequality (Rosenberg,                                                                                                                 Berg & Ostry, 2011, 2011; A. Berg, Ostry,
                                                    ten children living in poverty come from      2017). Gender pay inequality plays an             cohesion as a society breaks down.                                                                                                                                        ARE LOW WAGES THE CAUSE OF LOW
       …BUT LOW                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       & Zettelmeyer, 2008) and for slower
                                                    working families, according to Perry (2017,   important part too. Because wages               • Inequality is highly correlated with, and                                                         growth (eg, Cingano, 2014; Wade, 2013).                                 PRODUCTIVITY AS WELL AS THE
       It is widely accepted that New Zealand’s     p. 144)), and we would have many more         are such an important part of people’s            likely contributes to many other social,                                                                                                                                  RESULT?
       wages are low compared with other            if not for income support: Working for        incomes, raising wages and reducing wage                                                                                                          There are therefore strong economic and
                                                                                                                                                    mental and physical ills. As Wilkinson
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    social reasons for improving wages in order                               Raising real wages can raise productivity at
                                                                                                                                                    and Pickett (2010) demonstrated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    to reduce inequality.                                                     three levels.
                                                                                                                                                    in their book The Spirit Level: Why
                                                                                                                                                    More Equal Societies Almost Always                                                              WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY – REALLY?                                          MOTIVATING WORKERS
                                                                                                                                                    Do Better, “almost all problems which
                                                                                                                                                    are more common at the bottom of                                                                The standard answer from employers and                                    First, it works at the level of individual
       Inequality is highly correlated with, and likely contributes to many other social, mental and                                                the social ladder are more common in                                                            economists when people complain about                                     workers. Higher wages and fair treatment
       physical ills.                                                                                                                               more unequal societies”. They included                                                          our low wages is: “You can’t raise wages                                  lead to better motivated workers who put
                                                                                                                                                    lowered life expectancy, poorer                                                                 before you raise productivity.”                                           more effort and thought into their work,

18 THE SPECIALIST | JULY 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    WWW.ASMS.NZ | THE SPECIALIST   19
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