THE ZAGREB SUMMIT: One step forward, two steps back - July 2020 - Policy Note
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Policy Note No. 04/2020
THE ZAGREB SUMMIT:
One step forward, two
steps back
-
July 2020
1Group for Legal
and Political
Studies
is an independent, non-partisan and
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based in Prishtina, Kosovo.
Our mission is to conduct credible
policy research in the fields of politics,
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in the said policy fields.
legalpoliticalstudies.org
2Policy Note 04/2020
The Zagreb Summit: one step forward, two steps back
Author: Alejandro Esteso Perez*
July 2020
© Group for Legal and Political Studies, July 2020.
The opinions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of Group for Legal and Political Studies
donors, their staff, associates or Board(s). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any mean without the permission. Contact the administrative office of the Group
for Legal and Political Studies for such requests.
Group for Legal and Political Studies
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*International Research Fellow
3THE ZAGREB SUMMIT: ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK
BACKGROUND
The leaders of the 27 European Union (EU) Kosovo–, and on the prospects for successful
Member States and the six non-EU countries potential summits in the future.
in the Western Balkan region (WB6) gathered
on the 6th of May 2020 for what would be the THE ROAD TO ZAGREB
second EU-WB6 high-level meeting in three Political relations between the EU and the
years. Held at the behest and under the countries in the Western Balkans have
auspices of Croatia, the Zagreb Summit traditionally been dynamic and lively. While
brought together –albeit via the European Commission (EC) has
videoconference– EU representatives and demonstrated thorough willingness to
enlargement hopefuls amid the dire outbreak engage with the region, and while informal
of COVID-19 that is, to this day, wreaking diplomatic encounters between EU Member
political, economic and social havoc around States and Western Balkan leaders have
the world. The meeting was greeted with both been manifold and substantively consistent
prudent expectation and a degree of throughout the years, reasonably few high-
scepticism, mostly stemming from the level initiatives have emerged in order to
modest results yielded at previous such bring the two partners closer together.
encounters. A few weeks after the summit, The European perspective for the
how tangible are its outcomes and what is countries in the Western Balkan region
there left? crystallized for the first time at the 2003 EU-
This policy note will track the short Western Balkans Summit held in
history of EU-Western Balkan summits and Thessaloniki. 1 The erstwhile potential
provide the backdrop against which Croatia candidates adopted and pledged their
2
convened a new meeting in 2020 as part of commitment to the implementation of the so-
its WB6-inclusive agenda. It will then go on to called Thessaloniki Agenda which foresaw,
examine the successes and shortcomings of among other novelties, the inauguration of
the Zagreb Summit in the context of the community programmes, increased
struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic and mobilization of economic resources and
will furthermore evaluate the extent to which cooperation with the EU in some areas of
the notion of enlargement is running out of foreign and security policy.3 While 2003 has
steam. Last, it will engage in a critical been historically considered a turning point in
discussion on the future of EU-WB6 relations the EU-Western Balkans partnership, a
in the wake of COVID-19, on the EU’s previous European Council (EUCO) at Santa
inconclusive role in the region against major Maria da Feira4 in Portugal and a summit in
world powers –with a special focus on Zagreb5 –both held in 2000– likewise paved
the way to consolidating the European
perspective of the region.
1 2003. The Thessaloniki Summit: a milestone in the 3 ME4EU EU4ME. Thessaloniki Agenda. [online] Available
European Union’s relations with the Western Balkans. at: [Accessed 13 May 2020].
[Accessed 13 May 2020]. European Council. Conclusions of the Presidency.
2 The following countries were represented at this Brussels.
summit: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the 5 Vinci, A., 2000. EU and Balkan leaders hold key summit.
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Serbia and CNN, [online] 24 November. Available at:
Montenegro. On behalf of Kosovo attended the Special [Accessed 13 May 2020].
in Kosovo.
4The next such initiative did not take strongest opponent. Owing to fears of
place until 2018 when, at the behest of recognition through the back door, Spanish
Bulgaria –which held the rotating presidency representatives have strictly avoided sharing
of the Council of the EU (hereinafter, the a common space with Kosovan authorities at
Council) and whose outspoken support international gatherings. In line with this
towards the Western Balkan region’s policy, the then Spanish Head of
integration stood as one of its mandate’s Government, Mariano Rajoy, boycotted the
steering goals–, an EU-Western Balkans summit and was absent from the meeting as
Summit was convened in Sofia. Fifteen years a sign of protest over Kosovo’s presence,9 a
had elapsed since the Thessaloniki Summit move that revealed an incoherent and
and, by then, Croatia had already become an uncoordinated response to the detriment of
EU Member State, downsizing the list and a unified, EU-wide stance.
thus bringing about the coining of the WB6 In 2020, two converging factors were
(Western Balkan Six) formula used today: decisive for successfully convening a new EU-
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Western Balkans Summit. Firstly, the EC’s
Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. thrust for serious engagement with the WB6.
Despite Bulgaria’s commitment to At the presentation of the EU’s new
reinvigorate the momentum lost between the enlargement methodology in early February
EU and the WB6, the outcome of the 2018 this year, European Commissioner for
Sofia Summit was received with Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement
disappointment. Genuine commitment to Negotiations, Olivér Várhelyi, hinted at the
integrating the WB6 in the short or medium possibility of holding a yearly WB6-themed
run was shared by only a handful of Member conference. In the Commissioner’s words,
States, with the so-called enlargement “we would like the leaders of the European
fatigue acting as a doctrine for many others Union to have at least an annual debate
– in whose plans, it was claimed, was to about the progress that these countries are
discretely torpedo the summit.6 As a result, making; this could be based on the Zagreb
the meeting’s final text, the Sofia Summit.”10 The EC’s commitment with the
Declaration, contained no mention of EU WB6 has consistently proved evident and
enlargement or full-fledged membership for more driving than that of the Member States.
the WB6.7 The second decisive factor was Croatia’s role
Throughout the summit, the WB6 as president of the Council, which pushed for
were referred to as partners rather than as an agenda particularly inclusive of the WB6.
States – given the reservations of some
delegations regarding Kosovo’s CROATIA’S PRESIDENCY OF THE
independence. 8 Out of the five EU Member COUNCIL
States that do not recognize Kosovo as an On the 1st of January 2020, Croatia became
independent country –Cyprus, Greece, the bearer of the rotating presidency of the
Romania, Slovakia and Spain– it is arguably Council for a six-month term. This was a
the latter that has traditionally acted as its landmark event for a country which, after 7
6 García Martínez, F. J., 2018. Sofia Summit: straight Available at: [Accessed 11 May 2020].
7 2018. Sofia Declaration, 17 May 2018. 10 2020. Remarks by Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi at the
8 Rexha, A., 2019. An analysis of the European press conference on the revised enlargement
Enlargement Policy through years: the case of Western methodology. European Commission [online] 5 February.
Balkans. Iliria International Review 9(2), 233-252. Available at:
9 Rojo, A., 2018. Rajoy no estará en la cumbre de Sofía por [Accessed 5 May 2020].
5years of full-fledged membership, would be foremost expected breakthroughs would be
entrusted the duty of “driving forward the placing the issue of enlargement in the
Council’s work on EU legislation, ensuring the spotlight as a confirmation of the WB6’s
continuity of the EU agenda, orderly European perspective. These efforts would
legislative processes and cooperation among include the launching of accession
Member States […] as an honest and neutral negotiations with Albania and North
broker.”11 Macedonia, the promotion of progress in
Croatia assumed the helm of the Montenegro and Serbia ‒the two WB6
Council at a particularly tempestuous time for frontrunners on the road to accession‒ and
the EU, with Brexit hanging unfinished and in the further monitoring of Bosnia and
the aftermath of a prolonged enlargement Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential
ache for Albania and North Macedonia. candidates. The celebration of an informal
Aware of the challenges ahead, Zagreb’s six- EU-WB6 Summit in Zagreb was likewise
month presidency was bound to shape up as envisaged for May.
a true litmus test for its aspirations and Croatia’s six-month term at the helm
ambitions as the youngest EU Member State. started off amid the United Kingdom’s EU
In the words of Croatian Prime Minister demise in late January and oversaw the
Andrej Plenković, “[u]neven economic Member States’ green light to launching
development, climate change, increased accession talks with Albania and North
migration, dissemination of disinformation Macedonia at the EUCO in March. However,
and growing populism are some of the barely halfway into the mandate, the COVID-
challenges of today’s world to which citizens 19 pandemic struck the EU and took its
are expecting answers, and with good members by storm, forcing the closure of
reason.”12 borders and airspace, bringing about strict
Under the overarching motto “A lockdowns and curfews and, by and large,
strong Europe in a world of challenges”, as wreaking social havoc. All informal meetings
per its programme, Croatia’s principles for bound to take place in Croatia were
the first six months of 2020 would boil down postponed in order to prevent the spread of
to four: a Europe that develops, a Europe that the pandemic14 and the Council presidency
connects, a Europe that protects and an activated the Integrated Political Crisis
influential Europe. In practical terms, some of Response (IPCR) mechanism in order to
the priorities of the mandate would be to better coordinate the EU’s response to the
reach an agreement on the new Multiannual crisis.15 Added to the disruptive
Financial Framework (MFF), to establish a repercussions of the virus, on the 22nd of
renewed partnership with post-Brexit United March, Zagreb was hit by a 5.3-magnitude
Kingdom and to ensure stability along the earthquake that left one dead and almost 30
EU’s external borders.13 However, one of the injured, alongside sizable material damage.16
11 2020. The Presidency of the Council of the EU. Council 15 2020. COVID-19 outbreak: the presidency steps up EU
of the European Union, [online] Available at: response by triggering full activation mode of IPCR.
[Accessed 6 May 2020]. Available at:
12 2020. Programme of the Croatian Presidency of the [Accessed 11 May 2020].
informal meetings. AA, [online] 8 April. Available at: 16 Walker, S., 2020. Zagreb hit by earthquake while in
Available at:
[Accessed 11 May 2020].The 2020 EU-WB6 Summit, the Representatives from the Member
second of this kind since 2018, was originally States, the WB6 and the EU itself were
scheduled for the 7th of May in the Croatian present at the event, including EUCO
capital. It aimed to bring together both EU President Charles Michel, who chaired the
and WB6 representatives for the first time session, EC President Ursula von der Leyen,
since Sofia ‒ however, it was announced that French President Emmanuel Macron, Kosovo
it would be deferred to a later date, possibly President Hashim Thaçi and Serbian
in June.17 A few weeks later, with no near end President Aleksandar Vučić. Moreover, one of
of the pandemic in sight, the summit adopted the most noteworthy attendees was Spanish
an online format and was finally held via Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose
videoconference on the 6th of May.18 presence remained a conundrum until the
last minute. In contrast to the boycott of
HIGH STAKES AND AN 2018, Spain would take part in the meeting
UNDERWHELMING SUMMIT alongside Kosovo on this occasion, provided
Originally envisioned as an opportunity that no national symbols –namely flags or
devoted “to the enlargement policy and to coats of arms– would be displayed during the
achieving further progress by candidate and session. Likewise, country representatives
potential candidate countries”19, the would not be addressed by their positions,
objectives of the Zagreb Summit were but by their name2021
shattered by the COVID-19 outbreak. The The main outputs of the summit, as
agenda was thus adjusted and ran along reflected in the Zagreb Declaration, focused
three segments: responses to the health primarily on the measures to counter the
crisis and recovery plan, the European effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including
perspective of the region and the WB6’s a joint response between the EU and the
commitment to reforms. WB6. A €3.3 billion assistance package
The expectations for the summit were would be allocated to the benefit of the
high. Albeit held online, Zagreb was the first region, alongside a post-pandemic recovery
EU-WB6 meeting with a new enlargement plan worth over €1.5 billion from the
methodology up and running, as well as the European Investment Bank (EIB).22 The EU
first encounter since green light had been leaders reiterated their support to the
given to Albania and North Macedonia to European perspective of the WB6 and major
launch accession talks after months of priority policy areas were raised, such as the
vetoes. The disappointing aftermath of the security sector, the fight against terrorism
Sofia Summit had set a discouraging and extremism, countering corruption,
precedent, but Zagreb was bound to be human trafficking and money laundering,
enveloped in a different mood – not least due emphasizing the importance of tackling them
to the exceptional circumstances facing the collectively. However, they failed to
whole continent. incorporate the terms enlargement or
oatia-earthquake-causes-widespread-damage-zagreb> balkan-countries-to-be-held-online-on-6-
[Accessed 6 May 2020]. may/10242217/> [Accessed 6 May 2020].
17 2020. EU-Western Balkans Summit in Zagreb 19 2020. Programme of the Croatian Presidency of the
postponed, new date possible in June. European Council of the European Union, p. 8.
Western Balkans, [online] 8 April. Available at:
[Accessed 6 May 2020]. Available at:membership in the final text of the enlargement was dropped from the list of
Declaration; similarly, no mention was made priorities, as have countless other issues.
of the launch of accession talks with Albania Even though EU institutions, imaginably
and North Macedonia. The document spearheaded by the EC, will attempt to
ultimately highlighted the significance of the convey the perception that integration of the
WB6’s commitment to reforms and the WB6 into the European club is being worked
necessity to progress “towards full alignment upon with the same vigour, this will in all
with EU foreign policy positions”23. likelihood be far from the case.
Amid an uncertain setting where the
PANDEMIC FIRST AND COSMETIC EU will strive to recover from COVID-19,
ENGAGEMENT: THE WB6’S FUTURE enlargement will only very rarely be on the
AFTER ZAGREB political agenda. The EC’s decision to
The COVID-19 crisis has shaken the postpone until October the publication of the
foundations of the global order, with Western annual Enlargement Package, traditionally
Europe being one of the main epicentres of published in the spring, is a recent proof of
the pandemic in the world. It is not a daring this. This move, although seemingly
claim that the devastating effects of the virus insignificant, proves that workforce and
are likely to redefine not only the main resources are being redirected towards
political priorities within the EU itself, but also efforts to counter the effects of the
the relationship between the EU and the WB6 pandemic, a scenario that does not seem
for the years to come. Against this bound to change anytime in the foreseeable
extraordinary backdrop, the Zagreb Summit future.24 This diversion of means and capital
has constituted yet another paving stone in will, furthermore, add to the structural
the long road towards the WB6’s full-fledged doctrine of enlargement fatigue advocated by
EU membership, and its outcome has several Member States – to the detriment of
arguably disappointed many. the WB6.25 In the light of both fewer
The modest results yielded after the resources and a lack of political consensus,
2018 Sofia Summit were discouraging, and the odds for a smooth integration process are
Croatia’s initiative to reinvigorate the EU-WB6 in free fall.
dialogue after nearly two decades of rusty On an optimistic note, the COVID-19
dynamics was viewed both hopefully and crisis can potentially contribute to a swifter
sceptically. While it was expected that two alignment between the EU Member States
summits in three years would give a fresh and the WB6 on the development of joint
impetus to the enlargement process, little responses to health emergencies or debacles
seems to have changed. of any other nature. The shared struggle
In the months and probably years to among national governments in terms of
come, the COVID-19 crisis is certainly crisis management, alongside the common
expected to drive Europe's political, experience of Pan-European hardship among
economic, social and environmental agendas the countries’ populations could build an
– something that was not overlooked at the awareness basis for brisker future
summit. The WB6’s prospects for further cooperation and solidarity. If developed, this
integration have, simply, been overshadowed could provide a favourable opportunity for the
by the global health emergency and implementation of the phasing-in dynamics
23Id., p. 6. negotiation-framework-to-go-ahead-in-june/> [Accessed
24Brzozowski, A., 2020. Enlargement Package postponed 27 May 2020].
until autumn, negotiation framework to go ahead in 25 Esteso Pérez, A., 2020. Renewing Hope? An Analysis of
June. Euractiv, [online] 20 May. Available: the New EU Enlargement Methodology and itsenvisaged in the new enlargement cooperation, solidarity, trust and reliability
methodology, whereby candidate countries must be essential in guiding the relations
would gradually integrate into individual EU among Europe’s peoples.
policies, regulations, programmes and In a prospective scenario marked by
markets at the same time as regional political and economic uncertainty and
cooperation would be strengthened.26 considering the modest gains yielded after
The extent to which the summit’s the summits at Sofia and Zagreb,
main takeaways can be considered both enlargement as a trustworthy tool is losing its
successful and a significant step forward is momentum and the credibility of EU-WB6
debatable and has to do, for the most part, high-level gatherings is at stake. While, on
with a difference in readings. On the one the one hand, the EC has traditionally
hand, if the Zagreb meeting is seen as the conveyed an enthusiastic demeanour
birth of a multilateral recovery front in the regarding the WB6’s perspective for full-
light of COVID-19, its success is undeniable – fledged EU membership, it is doubtful
as evidenced by the unprecedented €3.3 whether national governments will approach
billion assistance package in order to this matter in the same way – given the
address the health, economic and social growing reluctance of some of these States
emergency in the WB6.27 It is in the EU’s best over the years. It remains to be seen whether
interest to promote this recovery instrument Member States will be willing to keep up with
and render it one of the cornerstones of its EU-WB6 summits and whether their holding
message to the region, in an attempt to will become a consistent practice, something
reaffirm its status as the WB6‘s most reliable encouraged by the EC.28 Bulgaria and
partner. On the other hand, however, when Croatia, the only two hosts of the
looking at the Summit from a broader reinvigorated new summit model, are Balkan
perspective, namely with regard to states themselves and are tightly linked with
enlargement, the picture seems dull. Given both the WB6 region and the EU enlargement
the reservations and scepticism that several process, of which they have been the most
EU Member States have historically recent beneficiaries. In this context, will
showcased about the WB6’s potential EU future Council presidency holders render
membership, like France or the Netherlands, enlargement a high enough priority to
the COVID-19 crisis has provided the most convene new EU-WB6 summits and avoid the
suitable pretext to push these expectations process from withering? Of the future
to the back of the room. Already at the EUCO holders, only Slovenia, whose period at the
in March, the urgency in dealing with the helm of the Council will run from July to
pandemic outshined Albania’s and North December 2021, can be argued to share
Macedonia’s launching accession talks, these features.29 Otherwise, only Germany,
indicating a diversion of attention that would who will head the Council between July and
be difficult to regain. The idea of enlargement December 2020, has hitherto displayed
as a whole is losing traction at a time when proactiveness and outspoken interest in
26 2020. Revised enlargement methodology: questions 28 2020. Remarks by Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi at the
and answers. European Commission, [online] 5 February. press conference on the revised enlargement
Available at: methodology. European Commission, [online] 5
[Accessed 1 June]. [Accessed 22 June 2020].
for the Western Balkans. Council of the European Union, 29 The upcoming Council presidency holders will be
[online]. Available at: Croatia and Germany (2020), Portugal and Slovenia
[Accessed 29 May Sweden and Spain (2023).
2020].
9engaging seriously with the WB6’s EU affairs. As a reaction to this, the EU
prospects.30 The most important question, announced the swift appointment of Slovak
moreover, would be finding out whether the top diplomat Miroslav Lajčák as its Special
holding of such summits in the future –and Representative for the Belgrade-Prishtina
therefore the successful preservation of this Dialogue and other Western Balkan regional
new model– would bring along actual issues.32 His designation, partly devised as a
development for the region or if, as has countermeasure against the US’s competing
mostly been the case in the wake of the Sofia narrative and in an attempt to reinvigorate
and Zagreb gatherings, would mean little the EU’s decaying role in the country, has
more than grandiloquent statements to effectively brought to the fore the growing
conceal the lack of overall progress. differences between Brussels and
Washington.
KOSOVO’S PATIENT TUG OF WAR Against this backdrop, the country’s
More than as an isolated event of perspective after the Zagreb Summit seems
helplessness, the Zagreb Summit must be anything but rosy. The long-sought visa
interpreted as one of the most recent liberalization for Kosovo’s citizens remains a
episodes of EU ineptitude the WB6 have frozen issue, while the dialogue for
witnessed throughout the past years. The normalization of relations with Serbia is
meeting has offered a broader picture of the entering a new phase, in parallel to the EU-US
27 Members’ unclear role vis-à-vis its leverage struggle. No progress towards
neighbouring region, a clear consequence of enlargement is expected in the near future,
the Union’s internal turmoil and evidence of let alone Kosovo’s recognition as an official
its unease in the wake of Brexit, the candidate country, inasmuch as many SAA-
deterioration of relations with the United and ERA-linked reforms still have to be
States (US), Euroscepticism and COVID-19. implemented.33 On a positive note, however,
Throughout the WB6, the EU has Spain’s attendance at the summit has
failed to fully defend its geopolitical ground signified one modest but conclusive step
against major world powers, whose vested forward, indicating a change of paradigm vis-
interests in the region are inspiring cunning à-vis Kosovo and addressing its relations with
struggles for influence.31 In an exercise of Prishtina in a substantively more constructive
instrumentalization of its still fragile and fashion. With recognition being nowhere in
contested status, Kosovo provides a clear sight due to Spain’s internal struggles with
depiction of how the EU’s decaying leverage secessionist movements in the Catalonia and
has been taken advantage of by the US, Basque Country regions, Madrid’s choice not
which has tenaciously vied for a more to boycott the summit is highly suggestive of
prominent role in steering the diplomatic a slightly softening approach.
dialogue with Serbia – not without
interference in Kosovo‘s internal political CONCLUSIONS
30 Mudge, R. and Feilcke, A., 2019. German Maas says 32 2020. Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue: EU appoints a new
Western Balkan states belong in EU. DW, [online] 13 Special Representative. Council of the European Union,
November. Available at: [online] 3 April. Available at:
[Accessed 2
31 Walker, S., 2020. Coronavirus diplomacy: how Russia, June 2020].
China and EU vie to win over Serbia. The Guardian, 33 Esteso Pérez, A., 2020. Renewing Hope? An Analysis of
[online] 13 April. Available at: the New EU Enlargement Methodology and its
[Accessed 2 June 2020]. 13.
10The European perspective for the countries in enlargement and to strive for further
the Western Balkan region reached its progress and reforms in the WB6, but its
turning point at the 2003 EU-Western prospects were overshadowed by the
Balkans Summit held in Thessaloniki, after pandemic outbreak. What many optimists
two preliminary attempts in 2000 in Santa conceived as a second attempt to reorient
Maria da Feira and Zagreb. The gained the region’s path is now further evidence of
momentum contributed to Croatia’s the EU's unconvincing role vis-à-vis the WB6,
obtaining EU membership in 2013, which has where Brussels is failing to assert itself in the
since remained the Union’s most recent face of major world powers that are also vying
addition. The next such initiative did not take for leverage.
place until 2018 when, at the behest of While this summit makes yet another
Bulgaria, a new EU-WB6 Summit was paving stone in the road towards the WB6’s
convened in Sofia. By then, fifteen years EU membership, its outcome has not shed
later, new challenges and demands had any significant light upon the process.
arisen at the core of the EU and enlargement Remarkable financial assistance to face the
was hardly considered a policy priority any aftermath of the COVID-19 has been
longer. announced, rightfully rendering the WB6 a
Two key factors contributed to privileged EU partner region; in return,
convening a new EU-WB6 Summit in 2020: however, the idea of enlargement as a whole
firstly, the EC’s outspoken push for has lost traction. The noticeable diversion of
engagement with the WB6, consistently EU resources and capital to counter the
conveyed throughout the years but in effects of the pandemic will furthermore add
practice torpedoed by several of the most to the structural doctrine of enlargement
sceptical Member States; secondly, Croatia’s fatigue, whereby EU Member States will seek
role as president of the Council, which cooperation during the continent’s period of
endorsed an agenda where relations with the reconstruction but will, most likely, not
WB6 and enlargement would be treated as a engage in enlargement-related issues.
priority issue. In spite of the tempestuous Although the COVID-19 crisis could contribute
times amid which Croatia was assuming the to an alignment between the EU and the WB6
helm of the Council, including the handling of regarding the development of common
Brexit and the deciphering of the EU’s self- responses to health emergencies or crises of
identity crisis, European integration and the like, very rarely will enlargement pop up
enlargement seemed to be timidly placed as a policy priority over the upcoming months
back into the agenda – only until the irruption and years. It seems, ultimately, as though the
of COVID-19. WB6 had taken one step forward and two
The Zagreb Summit, although online, steps back.
was envisioned as an opportunity to focus on
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