Trade Occupations Outlook

Trade Occupations Outlook

Trade Occupations Outlook

TradeOccupationsOutlook BRITISH COLUMBIA 2010-2020 NOVEMBER 2011

Trade Occupations Outlook

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 1 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Contents Introduction 2 Trade Occupations 3 Context 4 Provincial Outlook 11 Regional Outlook 14 Summary 19 Appendix A: Trades Occupations, 4-Digit Composition 20 Appendix B: Regional Demand Outlook Tables, 2010 to 2020 22 Appendix C: Definitions 26 Appendix D: Economic Development Regions in B.C. 27

Trade Occupations Outlook

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020

[ 2 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Introduction According to the Labour Force Survey, between 2002 and 2008, British Columbia enjoyed steady employment growth, with an annual average growth rate of 2.5 percent–hitting a high of 3.5 percent between 2006 and 2007.

During this time, demand for skilled trade workers enjoyed rapid employment growth, with an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. However, as a result of the economic downturn, B.C.’s labour market struggled, starting in October 2008 and going into 2009. Skilled trade workers sustained greater employment losses compared to all occupations in B.C.‘s economy (-6.7% and -2.1% between 2008 and 2009, respectively). In spite of the gains for skilled trade workers reported in 2010, employment in 2010 was still below the 2008 high–251,340 vs. 269,420, according to the BC Labour Market Scenario Model results.

As British Columbia and Canada transition from recession to recovery, employers and policy makers are interested in better information upon which to base their decision-making. The following analysis is based on results from the second edition of the British Columbia Labour Market Outlook (2010-2020), from the British Columbia Labour Market Scenario Model.The model and the annual Outlook provide reliable labour market information to a variety of users. This model allows users to accurately forecast occupational demand and supply on a regional and provincial basis. The analysis also incorporates data from the 2006 Census, Labour Force Survey, as well as the findings from the 2010 BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes (APPSO) Survey.1 In February 2011, Statistics Canada made revisions to the Labour Force Survey back to 1996, based on 2006 Census population counts.

Sub-provincial estimates now correspond to 2006 Census boundaries. This has caused the 2009 B.C. labour force population to be revised downward by 43,700 from 3,706,700 to 3,663,000. Consistent with the revised population figure, provincial labour force and employment estimates for 2009 have been pushed downward by 42,700 and 41,500, respectively.

1 The BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes (APPSO) Survey is an annual province-wide survey of former apprenticeship students who have completed their final year of apprenticeship training in a participating B.C. post-secondary institution. For further detail see: http://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Default/Home.aspx.

Trade Occupations Outlook

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 3 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Trade Occupations The Trades Outlook Report 2010-2020, predicts that labour market conditions are going to tighten, with labour shortages for the trades sector as a whole expected by 2016.

In comparison, in the Trades Outlook 2009-2019, labour shortages were not expected for the trades sector as a whole. Over the outlook period, labour market conditions for trade occupations were forecast to move from excess supply to balanced conditions. Of projected job openings, a larger than previously forecasted proportion is due to replacement demand, opposed to expansion demand. These projections are subject to change as long term projections require the economic activity of those major construction projects that are already confirmed. Because of this, the long-term forecasts may increase or decrease as a result of the potential increase or decrease in the number of major construction projects in the province in the future.

Trades occupations are typically characterized as requiring apprenticeship training, which in most cases includes some college training. Under the National Occupational Classification (NOC) many of these trade occupations are identified as skill level B. In British Columbia, there are more than 140 apprentice trade programs that lead to a government-recognized credential. For the purpose of this analysis, a representative list of 15 trade occupations was identified. The selected occupations are concentrated in two NOC skill types: trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (NOC7), and sales and service occupations (NOC6).2 2 See Appendix A for a complete listing of the 4-digit NOC composition for these 3-digit trade occupations.

Table 1: Selected trades occupations 624–Chefs and Cooks 625–Butchers and Bakers 627–Technical Occupations in Personal Services 723–Machinists and Related Occupations 724–Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations 725–Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters 726–Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades 727–Carpenters and Cabinetmakers 728–Masonry and Plastering Trades 729–Other Construction Trades 731–Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics (Except Motor vehicle) 732–Automotive Service Technicians 733–Other Mechanics 737–Crane Operators, Driller and Blasters 742–Heavy Equipment Operators These occupations include those designated trades with the largest number of registered apprentices as well as those where sub-occupational groups are primarily trade occupations.This list represents 79 separate trades and the vast majority (over 90%) of current active apprentices as of July 31, 2011.3 Detailed information on each of the selected trades, and other designated occupations, can be obtained from the British Columbia Industry Training Authority (ITA) at: www.itabc.ca.

3 Industry Training Authority (ITA) Performance Measurement Report, August 31, 2011–http://www.itabc.ca/ AssetFactory.aspx?did=2281.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 4 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Context Understanding the current and expected characteristics for trades occupations provides the necessary context upon which to assess the future demand and supply mix and potential constraints and opportunities in optimizing the mix. A g e Relative to the overall labour force, where the average age was 40.5 years in 2010, heavy equipment operators and machinery and transportation equipment mechanics were 2.9 and 3.0 years older, respectively.

Conversely, chefs and cooks were 3.6 years younger than the all-occupations average.

Table 2: Labour Force Average Age by Occupation in B.C., 2010 and 2020 2010 2020 All occupations 40.5 40.9 Chefs and Cooks 36.9 39.2 Butchers and Bakers 39.6 40.6 Technical Occupations in Personal Services 40.5 41.6 Machinists and Related Occupations 42.6 41.9 Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations 40.7 40.5 Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters 39.9 40.9 Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades 40.2 41.0 Carpenters and Cabinetmakers 40.7 41.6 Masonry and Plastering Trades 40.0 41.5 Other Construction Trades 39.5 41.0 Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics (Except Motor vehicle) 43.5 42.2 Automotive Service Technicians 40.4 41.0 Other Mechanics 42.9 41.7 Crane Operators, Driller and Blasters 41.9 41.7 Heavy Equipment Operators 43.4 42.3 Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model Over the next 10 years, some occupations are expected to experience a drop in the average age, such as machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) where the average age is expected to decline from 43.5 to 42.2, reflecting older workers exiting the labour force (i.e., retiring or dying) and younger workers joining the occupational ranks.4 Where the average age is increasing, such as for chefs and cooks, this situation may indicate that exits and/or the expected inflow of younger workers are relatively slow.

While the underlying motivations (conscious or unconscious) for exits are readily apparent, on the entry side, there are a number of factors at play to influence young workers’decisions to enter an occupation or field of work. Attractive factors, such as current labour market conditions and remunerations, are important indicators for occupational entry.

C u r r e n t L a b o u r M a r k e t C o n d i t i o n s In 2010, the overall unemployment rate in B.C. was 7.6 percent.The employment rate was 60.5 percent with 77.6 percent of those employed working full-time.The unemployment rate for sales and service occupations5 (NOC6) was 5.7 percent in 2010. Occupations in protective services were well below the provincial average at 4.4 percent and chefs and cooks posted an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. In 2010, the unemployment rate for trades, transport and equipment operators as a whole was 8.5 percent. However, some occupations fared better than others.

For example, contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation reported an unemployment rate of 4.0 percent while trades helpers, construction, and transportation labourers posted a rate of 18.3 percent (10.7 percentage points above the B.C. rate of 7.6%).

According to the 2010 Labour Force Survey, the vast majority (92.2%) of those employed as trades, transport and equipment operators were employed full- time. All of the occupations associated with trades, transport and equipment 4 Note that the typical length of apprenticeship for many occupations is four years. 5 Includes all sales and service occupations.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 5 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D operators posted full-time rates above the provincial average.

However, just over half (56.6%) of chefs and cooks were employed full-time. Table 3: Unemployment and full and part time allocation, annual average 20106 Unemployment rate (%) Employed Full-time Employed Part-time Total, all occupations 7.6 77.6% 22.4% Sales and service occupations 5.7 62.2% 37.8% Chefs and cooks, and occupations in food and beverage service, including supervisors 7.2 56.6% 43.4% Occupations in protective services 4.4 88.7% 11.3% Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 8.5 92.2% 7.8% Contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation 4.0 96.9% n/a Construction trades 9.5 91.5% 8.3% Other trades occupations 6.4 96.1% 3.9% Transport and equipment operators 7.1 89.4% 10.6% Trades helpers, construction, and transportation labourers and related occupations 18.3 83.4% 16.6% *Includes all occupations under Sales and Service Source: Statistics Canada, 2010 Labour Force Survey Data from the 2010 BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes (APPSO) survey revealed similar findings; at the time of the survey 86 percent of survey respondents were employed.

Most employed respondents had only one job and the vast majority (96%) were employed full-time.

6 Due to rounding, values may not add up to 100. Figure 1: Labour market outcome of employed former apprenticeship students 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% One job only Full-time employment Permanent position Work for an employer 92% 93% 96% 94% Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO Survey Results from the 2010 APPSO survey also reflected varied unemployment rates across trade program areas, ranging from a low of 2 percent to a high of 20 percent. The overall unemployment rate for respondents in 2010 was 11 percent. Former apprenticeship students from steel fabrication and welding (20.0%), pipefitter and sprinkler fitter (16.0%) and construction heavy equipment (16.0%) programs had the highest unemployment rates, while those who completed heating, air conditioning and refrigeration (2.0%), and medium/heavy duty mechanics (3.0%) boasted the lowest unemployment rates.

(For more information on APPSO, please see http://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Default/Home.aspx)

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 6 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Figure 2: Unemployment rates by trade type 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Steel Fabrication & Welding Construction Heavy Equipment Pipefitter & Sprinkler Fitter Exterior and Interior Finishing Trades Culinary Arts Carpentry Plumbing Machinists Precision Metal Working Autobody/Collision& Repair Electrician Automotive Mechanics Industrial Mechanics & Maintenance Medium/Heavy Duty Mechanics Heating Air Conditioning,Refrigeration 20% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 2% Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO Survey I n c o m e Remuneration likely has an important impact on the attractiveness of some occupations for younger workers.

Estimates of median hourly earnings from the Labour Force Survey reveal that the sales and service occupations earn less per hour than the total occupational average–$13.00 vs. $20.98 in 2010. In 2010, the median hourly wage ranges from a low of $12.00 for chefs and cooks, to a high of $29.54 for contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation. Table 4: Median Hourly Wage Rates for selected 2 and 3 digit Occupations 2006 Median Hourly 2010 Median Hourly % change Total employees $18.00 $20.98 16.6 Sales and service occupations* $11.00 $13.00 18.2 Chefs and cooks $11.00 $12.00 9.1 Occupation in protective services $21.00 $23.04 9.7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations $20.00 $24.00 20.0 Contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation $25.00 $29.54 18.2 Construction trades $20.00 $22.00 10.0 Other trades occupations $23.00 $27.00 17.4 Transport and equipment operators $20.00 $23.00 15.0 Trades helpers, construction, and trans- portation labourers and related occupations $15.00 $18.00 20.0 * includes all occupations under Sales and Service Occupations Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 and 2010 Labour Force Survey We see similar wage patterns in the 2010 APPSO survey.

At the time of the 2010 survey, the median hourly wage of employed apprentice was $29–the same as it was for 2009 survey respondents. The hourly wage varies widely across occupations. Among the 10 most common occupations, the median hourly wage ranges from a low of $15 for chefs and cooks to a high of $33 for machinery and transportation equipment mechanics.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 7 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Table 5: Wage rate by occupation Occupation Respondents Median Hourly Wage Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics 240 $33 Printing Press Operators, Commercial Divers, and n.e.c. 30 $32 Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations 304 $31 Contractors and Supervisors, Trades and Related 214 $30 Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Occupations 180 $30 Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gas Fitters 261 $29 Machinists and Related Occupations 36 $26 Carpenters and Cabinetmakers 240 $26 Motor Vehicle Mechanics 271 $25 Chefs and Cooks 51 $15 Note: n.e.c.

stands for not elsewhere classified. Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO, median wages; 3 digit NOC One noticeable factor influencing occupational wage rates is the extent of unionization. At the national level, union density (unionized workers relative to total) in 2010 was considerably higher for trades, transportation and equipment operators (37.4%)–ranging from a high of 40.0 percent for“other trades”to a low of 30.2 percent for contractors and supervisors. On the other hand, 10.8 percent7 of workers in food and beverage sales and service occupations were covered by collective agreements. Unionization in occupational groups tends to act as a means of entry management, which may pose a barrier to entry, but keeps wages relatively higher.8 G e n d e r 9 According to estimates from the 2006 Census, the gender split for trades occupations is skewed towards males: overall, male representation was just 7 Uppal, Sharanjit.“Unionization 2010”.

September 2010. Statistics Canada. Available on-line at: http://www. statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2010110/pdf/11358-eng.pdf .

8 Ibid. 9 As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019. over 85 percent of the trades occupations labour force. However, there are distinct differences among the trades occupations: when sales and service trade occupations are excluded, the male share jumps to almost 97 percent.To a large extent, the trades/transport (NOC7) occupations remain a“non-traditional” occupation for women.10 Table 6: Trades Occupations Labour Force, by gender share (percent): 1996 and 2006 2006 1996 Male Female Male Female All occupations 52.4 47.6 53.3 46.7 Chefs and cooks 60.4 39.6 58.0 42.0 Butchers and bakers 52.9 47.1 65.3 34.7 Technical occupations in personal service 19.4 80.5 20.0 80.0 Machinists and related occupations 98.2 1.7 98.7 1.4 Electrical trades and telecommunication 96.8 3.2 97.0 3.1 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 98.0 2.0 99.0 1.1 Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 97.4 2.6 98.2 1.9 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 97.6 2.4 98.0 2.0 Masonry and plastering trades 97.0 3.0 97.4 2.6 Other construction trades 91.1 8.9 93.1 6.8 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) 98.6 1.4 99.1 0.9 Automotive service technicians 98.4 1.6 98.6 1.4 Other mechanics 98.8 1.2 97.6 2.4 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 98.1 1.9 98.9 1.1 Heavy equipment operators 97.0 3.0 98.3 1.7 Source: 1996 and 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Overall, the sales and service sector (NOC6) trade occupations are more balanced with respect to gender representation: 51.1 percent male and 48.9 percent female.

10 McMullen, K., Jason Gilmore and Christel Le Petit. April 2010.“Women in Non-traditional Occupations and Fields of Study.”Education Matters: Insights on Education, Learning and Training in Canada. Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 81-004-X. Vol 7, no. 1. Available on-line at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-004-x/2010001/ article/11151-eng.htm#b.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 8 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D While technical occupations in personal services, which comprises hairstylists and cosmetologists, is overwhelmingly female-dominated (80.5%), female participation in occupations such as cooks and chefs and butchers and bakers more closely approximates the gender split seen for all occupations in the province. Notably, there has been a relative surge of female entrants to trades training programs. As of March 2011, 10.5 percent of those people registered for an apprenticeship were women; this is up from 8.5 percent in 2009.11 In aggregate, between 1996 and 2006, the female labour force share in trades occupations has remained almost constant–14.8 percent in 1996 compared to 14.7 percent in 2006.

This pattern is similar for the subset of trades/transport (NOC7) occupations, where the female share rose from 2.4 to 3.1 percent over the 10 year period.

Along with very low rates of participation in trades/transport (NOC7) occupa- tions, women also tend to be “disproportionately concentrated among the ‘helper’ categories of workers”12 , which in part explains the growth and higher participation for females in the other construction trades occupation. A number of potential barriers to increased female participation in trades have been identified, including awareness of career options, access to training, and workplace culture and practices. At the same time, many of these challenges to greater female participation are currently being addressed through change in legislation and practice.13 A b o r i g i n al I d e n t i t y 1 4 The Aboriginal population in British Columbia, which in 2006 numbered just over 196,000 people or 4.8 percent of the total population,15 has also been identified as a potential source of labour for trades occupations.The 2006 Census does provide a perspective on Aboriginal participation in trades occupations; 11 ITA Annual Service Plan Reports 2010/11.

Available online at: http://www.itabc.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=2207. 12 Vojakovic, Dragana. Women in Trades: Discussion Paper. December 2008. Available on-line at: http://www.itabc. ca/Assets/ITA+Assets/Reports/ITA+Women+in+Trades+Discussion+Paper.pdf.

13 Ibid. 14 As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019. 15 2006 census, Statistics Canada. however, available tabulations do not provide a perfectly comparable set of occupations (see table 7).16 Table 7: Aboriginal share (percent) of occupational employment, British Columbia: 2006 3-Digit NOC Composition Aboriginal1 Share (percent) of Total All occupations 4.0 Chefs and cooks 624 4.0 Sales and service occupations, n.e.c. 625,627,648,662,664,666,668 5.7 Construction trades 725,727,728,729 5.4 Stationary engineers, power station operators and electrical trades and telecommunications occupations 724,726 5.6 Machinists, metal forming, shaping and erecting occupations 723,726 2.4 Mechanics 731,732,733 4.0 Heavy equipment and crane operators, including drillers 737,742 3.6 Source: 2006 Census, Statistics Canada 1 Includes both the on- and off-reserve aboriginal population.

Information from the 2006 Census showed that, in British Columbia, the rep- resentation of Aboriginal people in all occupations was 4.0 percent; however, for trades-related occupations, Aboriginal representation was varied. Focusing on the most comparable occupation groupings: chefs and cooks (4.0%) and mechanics (4.0%) show the same representation as for all-occupations; construc- tion trades (5.4%) was higher; while machinists, metal forming, shaping and erecting occupations (2.4%) was substantially lower.

Examining labour force participation rates from the 2010 Labour Force Survey showed that overall participation for the Aboriginal population tended to be significantly lower than for the non-Aboriginal population. For the core work- 16 For a complete 3-digit NOC listing, see http://www5.hrsdc.gc.ca/NOC/English/NOC/2006/SearchStructure.aspx.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 9 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D ing age population (ages 25 to 54), the gap between the non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal population is 13.6 percentage points.

Table 8: Labour force participation rates (percent), British Columbia: 2010 Age Total Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal2 15 to 64 years 76.7 77.0 66.5 15 to 24 years 63.3 63.6 57.9 25 to 54 years 85.1 85.5 71.9 Source: 2010 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada 2 Includes only the off-reserve aboriginal population. According to the 2006 Census, 12.5 percent of Aboriginal people (15 years or age and over) earned an apprenticeship or trades certificate. This is a greater proportion than non-Aboriginal population where just 10.9 percent of the population held a trade certificate.

In has been generally concluded, elsewhere, that the“inclination of Aboriginal people towards trades [is] somewhat higher than for the non-Aboriginal population.”17 As such, efforts at boosting Aboriginal labour market participation should have positive labour supply implications for trades occupations. Positive progress continues to be made–since 2006, Aboriginal participation in trades training has increased by 118%.18 Imm i g r a n t s 1 9 According to results from the 2006 Census, immigrants represented just over a quarter (27.5%) of the total population of British Columbia.The province annually accounts for almost 17 percent of immigrant landings to Canada.With an average annual immigration of 41,940 individuals to B.C.,20 new immigrants represent a potential supply of labour for skilled trades occupations.

From an occupational 17 A Study of Aboriginal Participation in the Construction Industry. November 2005. Available on-line at: http:// www.csc-ca.org/pdf/Aboriginal_report_e.pdf.

18 2010/2011 Canada-BC Labour Market Agreement Industry Training Authority Success Report, May 2011. Available on-line at: http://www.itabc.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=2116. 19 As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019. 20 Statistics Canada, Demography Division estimates over the period 2004-05 to 2009-10. perspective, 2006 Census results indicate that overall immigrant representation in trades was slightly below general occupational participation, but with some very notable exceptions.

In particular, while the representation of established immigrants in trades mirrored overall occupational participation, that of very recent and recent immigrants differed markedly from established immigrants.21 Table 9: Immigrant representation in trades (percent), by period of landing: 2006 All Immigrants Established Recent Very Recent All occupations 28.5 19.8 4.6 4.1 Chefs and cooks 40.2 27.6 6.9 5.7 Butchers and bakers 38.3 27.7 5.6 5.0 Technical occupations in personal service 36.2 27.6 5.6 3.0 Machinists and related occupations 41.0 32.6 5.7 2.8 Electrical trades and telecommunication 19.3 15.0 2.0 2.3 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 19.3 15.0 1.5 2.7 Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 20.5 16.4 1.8 2.2 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 21.5 15.9 2.7 2.9 Masonry and plastering trades 28.8 20.2 3.7 4.9 Other construction trades 27.5 19.2 3.7 4.7 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) 19.8 16.0 2.2 1.6 Automotive service technicians 26.5 21.0 3.3 2.2 Other mechanics 24.0 20.1 1.9 1.9 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 8.7 8.2 0.7 - Heavy equipment operators 9.4 7.7 0.9 0.7 Total Trades 26.3 19.5 3.5 3.2 Source: 2006 Census, Statistics Canada One interesting observation from the Census occupational profile of immigrants is that established and recent immigrants had a significantly higher representation 21 These immigrant categories refer to immigrants period of landing, relative to the timing of the census:‘very recent’immigrants having landed within the last five years (2001-2006);‘recent’immigrants having landed between five and ten years prior (1996-2001); and‘established immigrants’being those who landed more than ten years ago (pre-1996).

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 10 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D in the three sales and service sector (NOC6) trade occupations and machinists and related occupations. For very recent immigrants, the concentration was highest for chefs and cooks (5.7%) and butchers and bakers (5.0%), but also for masonry and plastering trades (4.9%) and other construction trades (4.7%). One consistent observation for all immigrants is the relatively low representation in the crane operators, drillers and blasters and heavy equipment operators occupations.These variations in representation may be a function of a number of factors such as immigrant source country and skill/education profile, ease of occupational entry and/or economic conditions at time of landing.

Examining labour force participation rates from the 2010 Labour Force Survey shows that participation for the immigrant population tends to be slightly lower than for the Canadian- born population. For the core working age population (ages 25 to 54), the gap between the Canadian-born and immigrant population was 5.3 percentage points.

Table 10: Labour force participation rates (percent), British Columbia: 2010 Age Total Canadian-born All Immigrants 15 to 64 years 76.6 78.3 74.0 15 to 24 years 63.3 66.5 53.1 25 to 54 years 85.0 87.0 81.7 Source: 2010 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada According to the 2006 Census, 9.3 percent of all immigrants (15 years and older) earned an apprenticeship or trades certificate.Within the immigrant population there are considerable differences in the proportion holding a trade certificate. For example, established immigrants had the highest proportion of the population with a trade certificate at 12.5 percent.This is 7.0 percentage points higher than the recent immigrant population and 8.4 percentage points greater than very recent immigrants where the rate was 4.1 percent of the population.

Encouraging a greater representation of very recent immigrants to trades in general, and certain trades occupations specifically, may provide an incremental source of labour supply, while also addressing the need for training and economic integration of new arrivals.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 11 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Provincial Outlook In 2010, trades occupation employment, at just over 251,000, made up 11.1 percent of provincial employment. By 2020, it is projected that 282,400 workers will be employed in trades occupations (representing 10.9 percent of the total employment). It is projected that the trades occupations employment growth will average 1.2 percent over the next 10 years. By comparison, total provincial occupation growth will average 1.4 percent over the same projection period (0.2 percentage points more than trades occupations).

It should be noted that a large part of this growth occurs in the mid-term (5 years) projection, and begins to slow down in the long-term forecast. This occurs because employment is driven by variables such as confirmed construction projects, and variables of this nature can change in the long-term, driving projected employment up or down, as the number of projects increases or decreases. So while employment is growing on average over the horizon, the demand for workers increases faster than the rate at which they are employed, leading to a tight labour market condition (a deficit in workers supplied compared to those workers demanded) in the second half of the projection.

Table 11: Trade Occupations Employment: 2010 and 2020 2010 2020 Annual Average % Change All Occupations 2,256,500 2,589,100 1.4 Chefs and Cooks 35,870 41,990 1.6 Butchers and Bakers 9,020 10,050 1.1 Technical Occupations in Personal Services 16,140 18,850 1.6 Machinists and Related Occupations 4,130 4,700 1.3 Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations 20,690 23,090 1.1 Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters 12,030 13,330 1.0 Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades 16,570 18,560 1.1 Carpenters and Cabinetmakers 35,280 38,440 0.9 Masonry and Plastering Trades 12,470 13,670 0.9 Other Construction Trades 23,020 25,310 1.0 2010 2020 Annual Average % Change Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics (Except Motor vehicle) 21,210 23,610 1.1 Automotive Service Technicians 25,110 28,710 1.3 Other Mechanics 3,940 4,440 1.2 Crane Operators, Drillers and Blasters 2,170 2,380 0.9 Heavy Equipment Operators 13,700 15,270 1.1 Total trades 251,340 282,390 1.2 Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model The projected fastest growing trades occupations are technical operations in personal services (1.6%); chefs and cooks (1.6%), machinists and related occupa- tions (1.3%) and automotive services technicians (1.3%).

Conversely, the slowest growth is projected to be seen in crane operators, drillers and blasters (0.9%); masonry and plastering trades (0.9%) and carpenters and cabinetmakers (0.9%). To a large extent, demand for occupations in the trades/transport (NOC7) category22 is driven by the level of construction activity in the economy. Over the last 10 years, construction industry GDP has expanded at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent, while the economy grew at a rate of 2.4 percent.23 Over the same period, construction industry employment grew at an annual rate of 5.4 percent.24 Over the next 10 years, (2010 to 2020) trades/transport (NOC7) occupation employment is projected to expand at an annual average rate of 1.1 percent.

Historically (2000-2010), those NOC7 occupations have had an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent.25 Demand for sales and service trade occupations (NOC6), along with automotive service technicians and other mechanics, is more generally influenced by overall demographic growth in the province (a larger population results in more clients for these trades). Over the next 10 years–2010 to 2020–these occupations are 22 Excluding automotive service technicians and other mechanics. 23 Statistics Canada (CANSIM tables 379-0025 and 379-0026), gross domestic product chained (2002). 24 Labour Force Survey 2010, table-008.

25 Labour Force Survey 2010, table-010.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 12 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D expected to see annual average employment growth of 1.3 percent according to the BC Labour Market Scenario Model. This growth mirrors the expected population increase in B.C. (1.3 percent).26 Economic and demographic growth in the province will result in higher demand for trades occupations between 2010 and 2020.The other occupational demand driver over this period will be replacement demand, demand necessary to compensate for exits due to retirements and deaths.

Replacement demand is driven by the aging of the population. In 1980 the median age of the B.C. population was 30.4 years. By 2010, it jumped to 40.8 years and, in 2020, it is expected to reach 42.3 years. By the end of BC Stats’population projection period (2036), the median age for B.C. will reach 45.4 years.27 Figure 3: Expected demand for trades occupations, British Columbia: 2010 to 2020 0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 Heavy equipment operators Crane operators, drillers and blasters Automotive service technicians Other mechanics Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics… Other construction trades Masonry and plastering trades Carpenters and cabinetmakers Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters Electrical trades and telecommunication Machinists and related occupations Technical occupations in personal service Butchers and bakers Chefs and cooks Expansion Replacement Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model 26 BC Stats’PEOPLE 35 population projection – online at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca.

27 Ibid.

Overall, in British Columbia, annual average growth in total occupational demand28 will reach 1.4 percent, adding approximately 1.03 million job openings over the outlook period (2010 to 2020). In comparison, the outlook for trades occupations will see an average 1.2 percent growth annually, which will generate over 104,600 job openings by 2020. Over the projection period (2010 to 2020), annual average trades occupation labour demand growth (1.2%) will outstrip labour supply growth (0.9%). As illustrated in figure 4, the excess supply (over demand) position for trades occupations in B.C. will go from 4,990 to -2,340 in 2020, indicating more demand than can be met by the supply.

Figure 4: Excess supply outlook (supply less demand), British Columbia: 2010 to 2020 NOC7 NOC6 -3000 -2000 -1000 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model 28 Occupational demand is comprised of the number of expected employed workers plus the number of workers that are normally unemployed: Demand = employment/(1-normal unemployment rate).

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 13 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Supply and demand for all the outlook trades will see supply equal to demand by as early as 2013 for some occupations.

Heavy equipment operators are expected to be relatively balanced, but having a shortage by as much as 90 workers in 2020. Chefs and cooks are expected to have the largest deficit of workers by 2020, with as many as 400 workers being required to fill the unmet demand. On the other hand, crane operators, drillers and blasters are the closest to having supply and demand equivalence for the labour market, with demand exceeding supply by 20 workers in 2020.

By the end of the outlook period, excess trades demand in B.C. will account for less than 0.8 percent of the trades labour force–essentially, as an occupational group, it will be in balance based on current economic and construction forecasts.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 14 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Regional Outlook Overwhelmingly, most trades employment is concentrated in the Mainland/ Southwest region of the province: over half (55.3%) of the 251,340 trades occupa- tion employment in 2010 was concentrated in Mainland/Southwest.The labour market outlook predicts that this distribution will increase slightly (to 57.4%) over the next ten years (see table 12).

The annual average growth in trades occupation employment will be the highest in North Coast and Nechako (2.7%), Northeast (1.8%) and Mainland/ Southwest (1.6%).The regions with the lowest annual average growth rates will be Cariboo (0.03%),Vancouver Island/Coast (0.3%),Thompson-Okanagan (0.8%) and Kootenay (0.8%). B.C. as a whole is projected to have an annual average growth rate of 1.2 percent for trades occupations. Regional trades employment growth will be slower than total occupational growth in all but three regions. Mainland/Southwest and Northeast will have the same average annual growth rate for both the total occupational and trades employment, and North Coast and Nechako will have a lower total occupational employment average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent.

Cariboo (0.6%), Kootenay (1.1%), Thompson-Okanagan (1.1%) and Vancouver Island/Coast (0.8%) will all have higher total occupational average annual growth rates relative to the trades occupations.

Figure 5: Regional distribution of trades and all occupation employment (percent of total): 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 North Coast & Nechako Northeast Cariboo Kootenay Thompson-Okanagan Vancouver Island/Coast Mainland/Southwest Trade occupations All occupations Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model Examining the regional distribution of trades occupations relative to all occupa- tions (figure 5) shows that, to a large extent, the distributions are similar, but there are two notable exceptions: The representation of trades occupations in Mainland/Southwest is 6.2 percentage points lower than for all occupations (61.5%), while for all other regions trades representation is higher.

InThompson- Okanagan, the representation for all occupations is 2.5 percentage points less than the region’s trades occupations representation. While trades employment is mostly concentrated in Mainland/Southwest, trades only account for 10.0 percent of total employment, below the provincial share of 11.1 percent in 2010. Trades employment accounts for the greatest share of total employment (16.3%) in the Northeast, followed closely by Kootenay (15.6%).

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 15 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Between 2010 and 2020, despite the differential growth across regions, in B.C., the relative share of trades employment is expected to decrease slightly (10.9% in 2020). Table 12: Trades Employment 2010 and 2020 Trades All Occupations Percent Trades 2010 Vancouver Island/Coast 44,940 383,800 11.7 Mainland/Southwest 139,050 1,388,400 10.0 Thompson-Okanagan 34,820 257,200 13.5 Kootenay 10,810 69,400 15.6 Cariboo 10,760 80,300 13.4 North Coast and Nechako 4,920 40,400 12.2 Northeast 6,020 37,000 16.3 British Columbia 251,340 2,256,500 11.1 2020 Vancouver Island/Coast 46,320 416,730 11.1 Mainland/Southwest 162,220 1,632,210 9.9 Thompson-Okanagan 37,790 286,660 13.2 Kootenay 11,700 77,770 15.0 Cariboo 10,760 85,300 12.7 North Coast and Nechako 6,400 46,360 13.8 Northeast 7,170 44,070 16.3 British Columbia 282,390 2,589,100 10.9 Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Regions may not sum to B.C.

total due to rounding. Percent Trades is based on rounded figures [trades/all occupations.]) The economic and demographic drivers of occupational expansion demand, along with the need to replace workers exiting trades (through retirement or death), will result in considerable demand for skilled trades people. Labour demand for trades occupations over the outlook period will be concen- trated in Mainland/Southwest (61%), with this region needing over 63,000 new trades workers over the next 10 years. Together, Vancouver Island/Coast (14%) and Thompson-Okanagan (12%) will account for one quarter of total demand, with the remaining four regions making up the remainder.

Cariboo, North Coast and Nechako and Northeast will have equal shares of 3 percent and the Kootenay region will have just under a 2 percent share. In relative terms, demand for trades will be more or less significant by region. In North Coast and Nechako nearly one-in-five workers in the demand outlook from 2010-2020 are projected to be in the trades occupations. Conversely, one-in-ten workers in the demand outlooks of the Mainland/Southwest and Vancouver Island/Coast will be workers in the trades occupations. Table 13: Regional trade occupations demand outlook: 2010 to 2020 Replacement Expansion Total British Columbia 70,760 33,880 104,640 Vancouver Island/Coast 13,030 1,450 14,480 Mainland/Southwest 37,640 25,790 63,430 Thompson-Okanagan 9,580 3,140 12,720 Kootenay 3,380 880 4,260 Cariboo 3,350 -140 3,210 North Coast and Nechako 2,060 1,560 3,620 Northeast 1,710 1,200 2,910 Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Total is replacement plus expansion.) When we consider the source of demand, we see that replacement demand is a significant driving factor: the demand to replace retired trades workers accounts for over half of the total trades demand in every B.C.

development region. The share of replacement demand out of the total demand for trade occupations ranges from a high of 100% in Cariboo to a low of 57% in the North Coast and Nechako region.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 16 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Figure 6: Regional shares in trades labour demand: 2010 to 2020 Rest of Province 13.4% Thompson-Okanagan 12.2% Mainland/Southwest 60.6% Vancouver Island/Coast 13.8% Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model At the provincial level, expansion demand will account for almost a third (32.4%) of total demand. At the regional level, there is some notable variation in distribution. Cariboo will see a slight decrease in expansion demand (-4.4%), while Northeast (41.3%) will see the greatest.

Specific occupational demand will also vary considerably by region (see table 14). In Cariboo, nearly a quarter (23.1%) of the regional demand will be for machinery and transportation equipment mechanics, while in Northeast it is heavy equipment operators (22.9%) that account for the most significant demand share. In Vancouver Island/Coast, chefs and cooks (15.1%) will account for the largest occupational share of the trades labour demand from 2010-2020. Table 14: Trades labour demand, share of total trades (percent): 2010 to 2020 Vancouver Island/ Coast Mainland/ Southwest Thompson- Okanagan Kootenay Cariboo North Coast and Nechako Northeast Chefs and cooks 15.1 14.9 10.3 6.6 16.9 9.4 8.6 Butchers and bakers 3.6 3.4 2.4 3.3 1.9 1.9 1.7 Technical occupations in personal service 9.0 7.1 5.7 1.9 8.4 2.8 1.7 Machinists and related occupations 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.9 1.6 0.6 1.0 Electrical trades and telecommunication 9.3 9.8 9.5 11.5 6.6 10.2 9.6 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 4.2 4.9 4.3 5.2 2.8 5.0 6.5 Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 4.8 7.0 6.2 6.1 7.2 6.1 6.8 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 13.2 12.5 13.7 14.4 2.8 15.0 11.3 Masonry and plastering trades 3.5 4.8 5.1 4.0 0.0 2.2 2.1 Other construction trades 7.0 9.1 7.5 4.9 0.6 5.8 5.8 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics 8.8 7.7 11.8 15.1 23.1 15.8 14.4 Automotive service technicians 11.4 10.8 10.3 6.4 15.0 7.5 6.8 Other mechanics 2.7 1.7 1.7 0.9 2.5 1.9 0.3 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.6 0.6 1.4 0.3 Heavy equipment operators 5.2 3.4 9.7 17.2 10.0 14.4 22.9 Total Trades 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 17 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D When we compare regional labour demand growth to labour supply growth over the outlook period, what becomes apparent is that in every region demand growth outstrips supply growth, except for Cariboo where both are projected to shrink. For the North Coast and Nechako, Northeast, Kootenay and Mainland/ Southwest regions, demand is expected to outstrip supply by 0.3 percentage points. ForVancouver Island/Coast, demand is only expected to outstrip supply by 0.1 percentage points.

Figure 7: Regional supply/demand annual average growth (percent): 2010 to 2020 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Cariboo Kootenay Mainland/Southwest North Coast & Nechako Northeast Thompson-Okanagan Vancouver Island/Coast Supply Demand Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 18 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Table 15 shows that labour supply is expected to shrink for some occupations in some regions. For example, in Vancouver Island/Coast, the labour supply is forecast to shrink for plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters, carpenters and cabinetmakers, crane operators, drillers and blasters, heavy equipment operators, masonry and plastering trades, and other construction trades.

Little or no growth is expected in a variety of occupations across the regions, including but not limited to machinists and related occupations in Cariboo, electrical trades and telecommunication inVancouver Island/Coast and other mechanics in Northeast. Table 15: Trades labour supply, annual average growth (percent): 2010 to 2020 Vancouver Island/ Coast Mainland/ Southwest Thompson- Okanagan Kootenay Cariboo North Coast and Nechako Northeast Chefs and cooks 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 1.9 1.6 2.4 Butchers and bakers 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.3 Technical occupations in personal service 1.7 1.3 0.8 -0.4 1.8 2.3 0.1 Machinists and related occupations 0.3 1.3 0.4 -0.3 0.3 1.4 1.0 Electrical trades and telecommunication 0.0 1.3 0.6 0.5 -1.6 2.0 1.7 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters -0.3 1.2 0.4 0.4 -1.8 2.8 2.0 Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.2 -0.5 1.8 1.0 Carpenters and cabinetmakers -0.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 -2.3 3.9 1.7 Masonry and plastering trades -0.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 -2.9 4.3 1.7 Other construction trades -0.5 1.2 0.4 0.4 -2.2 4.0 1.5 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 1.2 Automotive service technicians 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.4 Other mechanics 0.9 1.2 0.6 -0.1 0.1 1.5 0.2 Crane operators, drillers and blasters -0.3 1.2 0.4 0.5 -1.6 1.6 2.1 Heavy equipment operators -0.2 1.2 0.5 0.7 -0.7 2.8 2.0 Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 19 ] INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Summary The trades employment outlook in B.C. is relatively strong, although trades demand will grow at a slightly lower rate than the provincial all occupation average over the forecast period. According to 2010 Labour Force Survey, the vast majority (92.2%) of those employed as trades, transport and equipment operators were employed full-time. All the trade occupations posted rates of full-time employment above the provincial average.

This is exemplified by the APPSO survey, which reported 96 percent of employed respondents were working full-time.

There still is underrepresentation of female workers in the trades for some occupations, but there have been vast improvements in female representation from the 1996 Census to the 2006 Census. Aboriginal people are still currently underrepresented in some occupations such as machinists, metal forming, shaping and erecting occupations but tend to be fairly represented in the sales and service occupations. According to the 2006 Census, 12.5 percent of Aboriginal people (15 years or age and over) earned an apprenticeship or trades certificate. This is a greater proportion than the non- Aboriginal population where just 10.9 percent of the population held a trades certificate.

This trend is expected to continue as the proportion of Aboriginal peoples in trades training programs has grown significantly since 2006. The 2006 Census results indicated that overall immigrant representation in trades was slightly below general occupational participation, but with some consider- able differences. Established immigrants in trades mirrored overall occupational participation, but this is not true for very recent and recent immigrants. The provincial trades outlook is positive, as employment in all of the trade occupations is expected to enjoy positive average yearly growth in employment up to 2020, with the strongest growth expected from chefs and cooks.

The trades as a whole are expecting an average yearly employment growth of 1.2 percent. Relative to expansion demand, replacement demand makes up the majority of the expected demand for the trades occupations, signalling that the economy is expected to remain strong as the job openings are derived from labour market needs and vacancies due to retiring older workers. As labour demand for the trades is expected to outpace the labour supply in 2016, and as early as 2013 for some occupations, there is an increasing need to educate and train labour force entrants, and enable skilled workers, including newcomers, to obtain trades credentials through assessments that fairly and objectively evaluate their skills and experience.

One potential source of relatively untapped supply is the female population. Female representation in trades/transport (NOC7) occupations has been relatively flat over the last decade, accounting for only 3.1 percent of the total in 2006. An increase in female representation would certainly bolster the supply side for trades occupations in British Columbia. Another source of potential supply is the Aboriginal population.While Aboriginal peoples have higher representation for many trades occupations, attracting them into the trades continues to be an important issue.Where success can be achieved is in increasing their overall labour market participation, which should positively impact supply.

Finally, attracting new immigrants into trades occupations has the benefit of potentially strengthening labour supply, while at the same time facilitating the training and economic integration of new arrivals.

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