Trade Occupations Outlook - NOVEMBER 2011

 
Trade Occupations Outlook - NOVEMBER 2011
BRITISH COLUMBIA

Trade Occupations Outlook
                     NOVEMBER 2011

2010-2020
Trade Occupations Outlook - NOVEMBER 2011
INTRODUCTION   TRADE OCCUPATIONS   CONTEXT      PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK       SUMMARY        APPENDICES: A-D

Contents
Introduction                                                                        2   Appendix A: Trades Occupations, 4-Digit Composition        20

Trade Occupations                                                                   3   Appendix B: Regional Demand Outlook Tables, 2010 to 2020   22

Context                                                                             4   Appendix C: Definitions                                    26

Provincial Outlook                                                                 11   Appendix D: Economic Development Regions in B.C.            27

Regional Outlook                                                                  14

Summary                                                                           19

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                             [1]
Trade Occupations Outlook - NOVEMBER 2011
INTRODUCTION    TRADE OCCUPATIONS   CONTEXT       PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK        SUMMARY                APPENDICES: A-D

Introduction
According to the Labour Force Survey, between 2002 and 2008, British Columbia             The following analysis is based on results from the second edition of the British
enjoyed steady employment growth, with an annual average growth rate of                   Columbia Labour Market Outlook (2010-2020), from the British Columbia Labour
2.5 percent – hitting a high of 3.5 percent between 2006 and 2007. During this            Market Scenario Model. The model and the annual Outlook provide reliable labour
time, demand for skilled trade workers enjoyed rapid employment growth,                   market information to a variety of users. This model allows users to accurately
with an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. However, as a result of the economic           forecast occupational demand and supply on a regional and provincial basis.
downturn, B.C.’s labour market struggled, starting in October 2008 and going              The analysis also incorporates data from the 2006 Census, Labour Force Survey,
into 2009. Skilled trade workers sustained greater employment losses compared             as well as the findings from the 2010 BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes
to all occupations in B.C.‘s economy (-6.7% and -2.1% between 2008 and 2009,              (APPSO) Survey.1
respectively). In spite of the gains for skilled trade workers reported in 2010,          In February 2011, Statistics Canada made revisions to the Labour Force Survey
employment in 2010 was still below the 2008 high – 251,340 vs. 269,420, according         back to 1996, based on 2006 Census population counts. Sub-provincial estimates
to the BC Labour Market Scenario Model results. As British Columbia and Canada            now correspond to 2006 Census boundaries. This has caused the 2009 B.C.
transition from recession to recovery, employers and policy makers are interested         labour force population to be revised downward by 43,700 from 3,706,700 to
in better information upon which to base their decision-making.                           3,663,000. Consistent with the revised population figure, provincial labour force
                                                                                          and employment estimates for 2009 have been pushed downward by 42,700
                                                                                          and 41,500, respectively.

                                                                                          1   The BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes (APPSO) Survey is an annual province-wide survey of former
                                                                                              apprenticeship students who have completed their final year of apprenticeship training in a participating B.C.
                                                                                              post-secondary institution. For further detail see: http://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Default/Home.aspx.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                                                   [2]
Trade Occupations Outlook - NOVEMBER 2011
INTRODUCTION          TRADE OCCUPATIONS             CONTEXT             PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK        REGIONAL OUTLOOK        SUMMARY               APPENDICES: A-D

Trade Occupations
The Trades Outlook Report 2010-2020, predicts that labour market conditions                                          Table 1: Selected trades occupations
are going to tighten, with labour shortages for the trades sector as a whole
                                                                                                                     624–Chefs and Cooks
expected by 2016. In comparison, in the Trades Outlook 2009-2019, labour
                                                                                                                     625–Butchers and Bakers
shortages were not expected for the trades sector as a whole. Over the outlook
                                                                                                                     627–Technical Occupations in Personal Services
period, labour market conditions for trade occupations were forecast to move
                                                                                                                     723–Machinists and Related Occupations
from excess supply to balanced conditions. Of projected job openings, a larger
                                                                                                                     724–Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations
than previously forecasted proportion is due to replacement demand, opposed
to expansion demand. These projections are subject to change as long term                                            725–Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters

projections require the economic activity of those major construction projects                                       726–Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades
that are already confirmed. Because of this, the long-term forecasts may increase                                    727–Carpenters and Cabinetmakers
or decrease as a result of the potential increase or decrease in the number of                                       728–Masonry and Plastering Trades
major construction projects in the province in the future.                                                           729–Other Construction Trades
                                                                                                                     731–Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics (Except Motor vehicle)
Trades occupations are typically characterized as requiring apprenticeship
                                                                                                                     732–Automotive Service Technicians
training, which in most cases includes some college training. Under the National
Occupational Classification (NOC) many of these trade occupations are identified                                     733–Other Mechanics

as skill level B. In British Columbia, there are more than 140 apprentice trade                                      737–Crane Operators, Driller and Blasters
programs that lead to a government-recognized credential.                                                            742–Heavy Equipment Operators

For the purpose of this analysis, a representative list of 15 trade occupations was                                  These occupations include those designated trades with the largest number
identified. The selected occupations are concentrated in two NOC skill types:                                        of registered apprentices as well as those where sub-occupational groups are
trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (NOC7),                                            primarily trade occupations. This list represents 79 separate trades and the vast
and sales and service occupations (NOC6).2                                                                           majority (over 90%) of current active apprentices as of July 31, 2011.3
                                                                                                                     Detailed information on each of the selected trades, and other designated
                                                                                                                     occupations, can be obtained from the British Columbia Industry Training
                                                                                                                     Authority (ITA) at: www.itabc.ca.

                                                                                                                     3   Industry Training Authority (ITA) Performance Measurement Report, August 31, 2011–http://www.itabc.ca/
2    See Appendix A for a complete listing of the 4-digit NOC composition for these 3-digit trade occupations.           AssetFactory.aspx?did=2281.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                                                                       [3]
INTRODUCTION         TRADE OCCUPATIONS       CONTEXT   PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK         SUMMARY                APPENDICES: A-D

Context
Understanding the current and expected characteristics for trades occupations                  Over the next 10 years, some occupations are expected to experience a drop in
provides the necessary context upon which to assess the future demand and                      the average age, such as machinery and transportation equipment mechanics
supply mix and potential constraints and opportunities in optimizing the mix.                  (except motor vehicle) where the average age is expected to decline from 43.5
                                                                                               to 42.2, reflecting older workers exiting the labour force (i.e., retiring or dying)
  Age                                                                                          and younger workers joining the occupational ranks.4 Where the average age
Relative to the overall labour force, where the average age was 40.5 years in                  is increasing, such as for chefs and cooks, this situation may indicate that exits
2010, heavy equipment operators and machinery and transportation equipment                     and/or the expected inflow of younger workers are relatively slow.
mechanics were 2.9 and 3.0 years older, respectively. Conversely, chefs and cooks              While the underlying motivations (conscious or unconscious) for exits are readily
were 3.6 years younger than the all-occupations average.                                       apparent, on the entry side, there are a number of factors at play to influence
                                                                                               young workers’ decisions to enter an occupation or field of work. Attractive factors,
Table 2: Labour Force Average Age by Occupation in B.C., 2010 and 2020
                                                                                               such as current labour market conditions and remunerations, are important
                                                              2010            2020             indicators for occupational entry.
All occupations                                                40.5            40.9
Chefs and Cooks                                                36.9             39.2               Current Labour Market Conditions
Butchers and Bakers                                            39.6            40.6            In 2010, the overall unemployment rate in B.C. was 7.6 percent. The employment
Technical Occupations in Personal Services                     40.5             41.6           rate was 60.5 percent with 77.6 percent of those employed working full-time. The
Machinists and Related Occupations                             42.6             41.9           unemployment rate for sales and service occupations5 (NOC6) was 5.7 percent in
Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations            40.7             40.5           2010. Occupations in protective services were well below the provincial average
Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters                           39.9            40.9            at 4.4 percent and chefs and cooks posted an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent.
Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades                     40.2             41.0           In 2010, the unemployment rate for trades, transport and equipment operators
Carpenters and Cabinetmakers                                   40.7             41.6           as a whole was 8.5 percent. However, some occupations fared better than others.
Masonry and Plastering Trades                                  40.0             41.5           For example, contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation reported
Other Construction Trades                                       39.5            41.0           an unemployment rate of 4.0 percent while trades helpers, construction, and
Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics                                               transportation labourers posted a rate of 18.3 percent (10.7 percentage points
                                                               43.5             42.2
(Except Motor vehicle)                                                                         above the B.C. rate of 7.6%).
Automotive Service Technicians                                 40.4             41.0
                                                                                               According to the 2010 Labour Force Survey, the vast majority (92.2%) of those
Other Mechanics                                                42.9             41.7
                                                                                               employed as trades, transport and equipment operators were employed full-
Crane Operators, Driller and Blasters                           41.9            41.7           time. All of the occupations associated with trades, transport and equipment
Heavy Equipment Operators                                      43.4             42.3

Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model                                                        4    Note that the typical length of apprenticeship for many occupations is four years.
                                                                                               5    Includes all sales and service occupations.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                                   [4]
INTRODUCTION          TRADE OCCUPATIONS               CONTEXT   PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK           SUMMARY             APPENDICES: A-D

operators posted full-time rates above the provincial average. However, just                             Figure 1: Labour market outcome of employed former apprenticeship students
over half (56.6%) of chefs and cooks were employed full-time.
Table 3: Unemployment and full and part time allocation,                                                  Work for an employer                               92%
annual average 20106
                                             Unemployment          Employed           Employed             Permanent position                                93%
                                                rate (%)           Full-time          Part-time
 Total, all occupations                                  7.6           77.6%             22.4%
 Sales and service occupations                           5.7            62.2%            37.8%           Full-time employment                                96%
 Chefs and cooks, and occupations
 in food and beverage service,                           7.2            56.6%            43.4%
 including supervisors                                                                                            One job only                               94%
 Occupations in protective services                      4.4            88.7%            11.3%
                                                                                                                             0%    20%         40%     60%    80%   100%
 Trades, transport and equipment
                                                         8.5            92.2%             7.8%
 operators and related occupations                                                                       Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO Survey
 Contractors and supervisors in
                                                        4.0             96.9%             n/a
 trades and transportation                                                                               Results from the 2010 APPSO survey also reflected varied unemployment rates
 Construction trades                                     9.5            91.5%            8.3%            across trade program areas, ranging from a low of 2 percent to a high of 20 percent.
 Other trades occupations                                6.4            96.1%            3.9%            The overall unemployment rate for respondents in 2010 was 11 percent. Former
 Transport and equipment operators                       7.1            89.4%            10.6%           apprenticeship students from steel fabrication and welding (20.0%), pipefitter
 Trades helpers, construction, and                                                                       and sprinkler fitter (16.0%) and construction heavy equipment (16.0%) programs
 transportation labourers and related                   18.3            83.4%            16.6%           had the highest unemployment rates, while those who completed heating,
 occupations
                                                                                                         air conditioning and refrigeration (2.0%), and medium/heavy duty mechanics
*Includes all occupations under Sales and Service                                                        (3.0%) boasted the lowest unemployment rates. (For more information on APPSO,
 Source: Statistics Canada, 2010 Labour Force Survey
                                                                                                         please see http://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Default/Home.aspx)
Data from the 2010 BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes (APPSO) survey revealed
similar findings; at the time of the survey 86 percent of survey respondents were
employed. Most employed respondents had only one job and the vast majority
(96%) were employed full-time.

6     Due to rounding, values may not add up to 100.

 British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                                 [5]
INTRODUCTION          TRADE OCCUPATIONS         CONTEXT        PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK          REGIONAL OUTLOOK          SUMMARY                APPENDICES: A-D

Figure 2: Unemployment rates by trade type                                                                    Table 4: Median Hourly Wage Rates for selected 2 and 3 digit Occupations
Heating Air Conditioning, Refrigeration        2%                                                                                                                   2006 Median    2010 Median     %
      Medium/Heavy Duty Mechanics               3%                                                                                                                     Hourly         Hourly     change
  Industrial Mechanics & Maintenance                      6%                                                   Total employees                                            $18.00      $20.98      16.6
                Automotive Mechanics                      6%
                                                                                                               Sales and service occupations*                             $11.00      $13.00      18.2
                              Electrician                      9%
           Autobody/Collision& Repair                          9%
                                                                                                                 Chefs and cooks                                          $11.00      $12.00       9.1
               Precision Metal Working                           10%                                             Occupation in protective services                        $21.00      $23.04       9.7
                              Machinists                         10%                                           Trades, transport and equipment operators
                               Plumbing                             11%                                                                                                   $20.00      $24.00      20.0
                                                                                                               and related occupations
                               Carpentry                               12%
                                                                                                                 Contractors and supervisors in trades and
                            Culinary Arts                                    13%                                                                                          $25.00      $29.54      18.2
                                                                                                               transportation
  Exterior and Interior Finishing Trades                                            15%
             Pipefitter & Sprinkler Fitter                                            16%
                                                                                                                 Construction trades                                      $20.00      $22.00      10.0
       Construction Heavy Equipment                                                   16%                        Other trades occupations                                 $23.00      $27.00      17.4
            Steel Fabrication & Welding                                                           20%            Transport and equipment operators                        $20.00      $23.00      15.0
                                          0%              5%        10%              15%             20%        Trades helpers, construction, and trans-
                                                                                                                                                                          $15.00      $18.00      20.0
                                                                                                               portation labourers and related occupations
Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO Survey
                                                                                                              * includes all occupations under Sales and Service Occupations
                                                                                                               Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 and 2010 Labour Force Survey
  Income
Remuneration likely has an important impact on the attractiveness of some                                     We see similar wage patterns in the 2010 APPSO survey. At the time of the 2010
occupations for younger workers. Estimates of median hourly earnings from                                     survey, the median hourly wage of employed apprentice was $29 – the same
the Labour Force Survey reveal that the sales and service occupations earn                                    as it was for 2009 survey respondents. The hourly wage varies widely across
less per hour than the total occupational average – $13.00 vs. $20.98 in 2010. In                             occupations. Among the 10 most common occupations, the median hourly
2010, the median hourly wage ranges from a low of $12.00 for chefs and cooks,                                 wage ranges from a low of $15 for chefs and cooks to a high of $33 for machinery
to a high of $29.54 for contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation.                             and transportation equipment mechanics.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                                                   [6]
INTRODUCTION           TRADE OCCUPATIONS             CONTEXT              PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK         REGIONAL OUTLOOK         SUMMARY                APPENDICES: A-D

Table 5: Wage rate by occupation                                                                                        over 85 percent of the trades occupations labour force. However, there are
                                                                                                                        distinct differences among the trades occupations: when sales and service
                                                                                               Median Hourly
                          Occupation                                    Respondents
                                                                                                  Wage                  trade occupations are excluded, the male share jumps to almost 97 percent. To a
Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics                                240                     $33             large extent, the trades/transport (NOC7) occupations remain a “non-traditional”
Printing Press Operators, Commercial Divers, and n.e.c.                          30                     $32
                                                                                                                        occupation for women.10
Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations                             304                     $31             Table 6: Trades Occupations Labour Force, by gender share (percent):
Contractors and Supervisors, Trades and Related                                  214                    $30             1996 and 2006
Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Occupations                                 180                     $30
                                                                                                                                                                                                   2006                         1996
Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gas Fitters                                            261                    $29
                                                                                                                                                                                          Male         Female          Male        Female
Machinists and Related Occupations                                               36                     $26
                                                                                                                        All occupations                                                    52.4           47.6           53.3          46.7
Carpenters and Cabinetmakers                                                    240                     $26
                                                                                                                        Chefs and cooks                                                    60.4           39.6           58.0          42.0
Motor Vehicle Mechanics                                                          271                    $25
                                                                                                                        Butchers and bakers                                                52.9            47.1          65.3          34.7
Chefs and Cooks                                                                  51                     $15
                                                                                                                        Technical occupations in personal service                          19.4           80.5           20.0          80.0
Note: n.e.c. stands for not elsewhere classified.                                                                       Machinists and related occupations                                 98.2             1.7          98.7          1.4
Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO, median wages; 3 digit NOC
                                                                                                                        Electrical trades and telecommunication                            96.8            3.2           97.0          3.1
One noticeable factor influencing occupational wage rates is the extent of                                              Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters                              98.0            2.0           99.0           1.1
unionization. At the national level, union density (unionized workers relative to                                       Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades                         97.4            2.6           98.2          1.9
total) in 2010 was considerably higher for trades, transportation and equipment                                         Carpenters and cabinetmakers                                       97.6            2.4           98.0          2.0
operators (37.4%) – ranging from a high of 40.0 percent for “other trades” to a low                                     Masonry and plastering trades                                      97.0            3.0           97.4          2.6
of 30.2 percent for contractors and supervisors. On the other hand, 10.8 percent 7                                      Other construction trades                                           91.1           8.9           93.1          6.8
of workers in food and beverage sales and service occupations were covered                                              Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics
                                                                                                                                                                                           98.6            1.4           99.1          0.9
by collective agreements. Unionization in occupational groups tends to act as                                           (except motor vehicle)
a means of entry management, which may pose a barrier to entry, but keeps                                               Automotive service technicians                                     98.4            1.6           98.6          1.4
wages relatively higher.8                                                                                               Other mechanics                                                    98.8            1.2           97.6          2.4
                                                                                                                        Crane operators, drillers and blasters                             98.1            1.9           98.9           1.1
    Gender9                                                                                                             Heavy equipment operators                                          97.0            3.0           98.3           1.7

According to estimates from the 2006 Census, the gender split for trades                                                Source: 1996 and 2006 Census, Statistics Canada

occupations is skewed towards males: overall, male representation was just                                              Overall, the sales and service sector (NOC6) trade occupations are more balanced
7     Uppal, Sharanjit. “Unionization 2010”. September 2010. Statistics Canada. Available on-line at: http://www.
                                                                                                                        with respect to gender representation: 51.1 percent male and 48.9 percent female.
     statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2010110/pdf/11358-eng.pdf .
                                                                                                                        10   McMullen, K., Jason Gilmore and Christel Le Petit. April 2010. “Women in Non-traditional Occupations and
8    Ibid.
                                                                                                                             Fields of Study.” Education Matters: Insights on Education, Learning and Training in Canada. Statistics Canada,
9    As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section         Catalogue no. 81-004-X. Vol 7, no. 1. Available on-line at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-004-x/2010001/
     of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019.                                             article/11151-eng.htm#b.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                                                                                    [7]
INTRODUCTION            TRADE OCCUPATIONS            CONTEXT             PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK         REGIONAL OUTLOOK          SUMMARY               APPENDICES: A-D

While technical occupations in personal services, which comprises hairstylists                                          however, available tabulations do not provide a perfectly comparable set of
and cosmetologists, is overwhelmingly female-dominated (80.5%), female                                                  occupations (see table 7).16
participation in occupations such as cooks and chefs and butchers and bakers
                                                                                                                        Table 7: Aboriginal share (percent) of occupational employment,
more closely approximates the gender split seen for all occupations in the
                                                                                                                        British Columbia: 2006
province. Notably, there has been a relative surge of female entrants to trades
training programs. As of March 2011, 10.5 percent of those people registered for                                                                                                         3-Digit NOC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aboriginal1
an apprenticeship were women; this is up from 8.5 percent in 2009.11                                                                                                                                            Share (percent)
                                                                                                                                                                                         Composition
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   of Total
In aggregate, between 1996 and 2006, the female labour force share in trades                                            All occupations                                                                                  4.0
occupations has remained almost constant – 14.8 percent in 1996 compared                                                Chefs and cooks                                                        624                       4.0
to 14.7 percent in 2006. This pattern is similar for the subset of trades/transport                                     Sales and service occupations, n.e.c.                   625,627,648,662,664,666,668               5.7
(NOC7) occupations, where the female share rose from 2.4 to 3.1 percent over                                            Construction trades                                               725,727,728,729                 5.4
the 10 year period.                                                                                                     Stationary engineers, power station operators
 Along with very low rates of participation in trades/transport (NOC7) occupa-                                          and electrical trades and telecommunications                         724,726                      5.6
                                                                                                                        occupations
 tions, women also tend to be “disproportionately concentrated among the
                                                                                                                        Machinists, metal forming, shaping and erecting
‘helper’ categories of workers”12, which in part explains the growth and higher                                                                                                              723,726                      2.4
                                                                                                                        occupations
 participation for females in the other construction trades occupation.                                                 Mechanics                                                           731,732,733                  4.0
A number of potential barriers to increased female participation in trades have                                         Heavy equipment and crane operators, including
                                                                                                                                                                                              737,742                     3.6
                                                                                                                        drillers
been identified, including awareness of career options, access to training, and
                                                                                                                        Source: 2006 Census, Statistics Canada
workplace culture and practices. At the same time, many of these challenges                                             1 Includes both the on- and off-reserve aboriginal population.
to greater female participation are currently being addressed through change
in legislation and practice.13                                                                                          Information from the 2006 Census showed that, in British Columbia, the rep-
                                                                                                                        resentation of Aboriginal people in all occupations was 4.0 percent; however,
     A b o r i g i n al I d e n t i t y 1 4                                                                             for trades-related occupations, Aboriginal representation was varied. Focusing
The Aboriginal population in British Columbia, which in 2006 numbered just                                              on the most comparable occupation groupings: chefs and cooks (4.0%) and
over 196,000 people or 4.8 percent of the total population,15 has also been                                             mechanics (4.0%) show the same representation as for all-occupations; construc-
identified as a potential source of labour for trades occupations. The 2006 Census                                      tion trades (5.4%) was higher; while machinists, metal forming, shaping and
does provide a perspective on Aboriginal participation in trades occupations;                                           erecting occupations (2.4%) was substantially lower.

11     ITA Annual Service Plan Reports 2010/11. Available online at: http://www.itabc.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=2207.
                                                                                                                        Examining labour force participation rates from the 2010 Labour Force Survey
12    Vojakovic, Dragana. Women in Trades: Discussion Paper. December 2008. Available on-line at: http://www.itabc.     showed that overall participation for the Aboriginal population tended to be
      ca/Assets/ITA+Assets/Reports/ITA+Women+in+Trades+Discussion+Paper.pdf.                                            significantly lower than for the non-Aboriginal population. For the core work-
13     Ibid.
14    As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section
      of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019.
                                                                                                                        16   For a complete 3-digit NOC listing, see http://www5.hrsdc.gc.ca/NOC/English/NOC/2006/SearchStructure.aspx.
15     2006 census, Statistics Canada.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                                                                            [8]
INTRODUCTION           TRADE OCCUPATIONS              CONTEXT             PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK         REGIONAL OUTLOOK         SUMMARY                APPENDICES: A-D

ing age population (ages 25 to 54), the gap between the non-Aboriginal and                                              perspective, 2006 Census results indicate that overall immigrant representation
Aboriginal population is 13.6 percentage points.                                                                        in trades was slightly below general occupational participation, but with some
                                                                                                                        very notable exceptions. In particular, while the representation of established
Table 8: Labour force participation rates (percent), British Columbia: 2010
                                                                                                                        immigrants in trades mirrored overall occupational participation, that of very
            Age                         Total                   Non-Aboriginal                 Aboriginal2              recent and recent immigrants differed markedly from established immigrants.21
15 to 64 years                             76.7                         77.0                         66.5
                                                                                                                        Table 9: Immigrant representation in trades (percent), by period of landing: 2006
15 to 24 years                             63.3                         63.6                         57.9
25 to 54 years                             85.1                         85.5                          71.9                                                                 All                                                 Very
                                                                                                                                                                                   Established Recent
                                                                                                                                                                        Immigrants                                            Recent
Source: 2010 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada
2 Includes only the off-reserve aboriginal population.                                                                  All occupations                                       28.5                19.8             4.6           4.1
                                                                                                                        Chefs and cooks                                       40.2                27.6             6.9           5.7
According to the 2006 Census, 12.5 percent of Aboriginal people (15 years or                                            Butchers and bakers                                   38.3                27.7             5.6           5.0
age and over) earned an apprenticeship or trades certificate. This is a greater                                         Technical occupations in personal service             36.2                27.6             5.6           3.0
proportion than non-Aboriginal population where just 10.9 percent of the
                                                                                                                        Machinists and related occupations                    41.0                32.6             5.7           2.8
population held a trade certificate.
                                                                                                                        Electrical trades and telecommunication                19.3               15.0             2.0           2.3
In has been generally concluded, elsewhere, that the “inclination of Aboriginal                                         Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters                  19.3               15.0             1.5            2.7
people towards trades [is] somewhat higher than for the non-Aboriginal                                                  Metal forming, shaping and erecting
                                                                                                                                                                              20.5                16.4             1.8           2.2
population.”17 As such, efforts at boosting Aboriginal labour market participation                                      trades
should have positive labour supply implications for trades occupations. Positive                                        Carpenters and cabinetmakers                           21.5               15.9             2.7           2.9
progress continues to be made – since 2006, Aboriginal participation in trades                                          Masonry and plastering trades                         28.8                20.2             3.7           4.9
training has increased by 118%.18                                                                                       Other construction trades                              27.5               19.2             3.7           4.7
                                                                                                                        Machinery and transportation equipment
                                                                                                                                                                              19.8                16.0             2.2           1.6
     Imm i g r a n t s 1 9                                                                                              mechanics (except motor vehicle)
                                                                                                                        Automotive service technicians                        26.5                21.0             3.3           2.2
According to results from the 2006 Census, immigrants represented just over a
                                                                                                                        Other mechanics                                       24.0                20.1             1.9           1.9
quarter (27.5%) of the total population of British Columbia. The province annually
accounts for almost 17 percent of immigrant landings to Canada. With an average                                         Crane operators, drillers and blasters                 8.7                 8.2             0.7            -

annual immigration of 41,940 individuals to B.C.,20 new immigrants represent a                                          Heavy equipment operators                              9.4                 7.7             0.9           0.7
potential supply of labour for skilled trades occupations. From an occupational                                         Total Trades                                          26.3                19.5             3.5           3.2
                                                                                                                        Source: 2006 Census, Statistics Canada

17    A Study of Aboriginal Participation in the Construction Industry. November 2005. Available on-line at: http://
      www.csc-ca.org/pdf/Aboriginal_report_e.pdf.
                                                                                                                        One interesting observation from the Census occupational profile of immigrants is
18    2010/2011 Canada-BC Labour Market Agreement Industry Training Authority Success Report, May 2011.                 that established and recent immigrants had a significantly higher representation
      Available on-line at: http://www.itabc.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=2116.
                                                                                                                        21   These immigrant categories refer to immigrants period of landing, relative to the timing of the census: ‘very
19    As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section
                                                                                                                             recent’ immigrants having landed within the last five years (2001-2006); ‘recent’ immigrants having landed
      of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019.
                                                                                                                             between five and ten years prior (1996-2001); and ‘established immigrants’ being those who landed more than
20     Statistics Canada, Demography Division estimates over the period 2004-05 to 2009-10.                                  ten years ago (pre-1996).

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INTRODUCTION          TRADE OCCUPATIONS               CONTEXT          PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK    REGIONAL OUTLOOK   SUMMARY   APPENDICES: A-D

in the three sales and service sector (NOC6) trade occupations and machinists
and related occupations. For very recent immigrants, the concentration was
highest for chefs and cooks (5.7%) and butchers and bakers (5.0%), but also for
masonry and plastering trades (4.9%) and other construction trades (4.7%). One
consistent observation for all immigrants is the relatively low representation
in the crane operators, drillers and blasters and heavy equipment operators
occupations. These variations in representation may be a function of a number
of factors such as immigrant source country and skill/education profile, ease of
occupational entry and/or economic conditions at time of landing.
Examining labour force participation rates from the 2010 Labour Force Survey
shows that participation for the immigrant population tends to be slightly lower
than for the Canadian- born population. For the core working age population
(ages 25 to 54), the gap between the Canadian-born and immigrant population
was 5.3 percentage points.
Table 10: Labour force participation rates (percent), British Columbia: 2010
           Age                            Total                 Canadian-born           All Immigrants
15 to 64 years                             76.6                      78.3                    74.0
15 to 24 years                             63.3                      66.5                    53.1
25 to 54 years                             85.0                      87.0                    81.7
Source: 2010 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada

According to the 2006 Census, 9.3 percent of all immigrants (15 years and older)
earned an apprenticeship or trades certificate. Within the immigrant population
there are considerable differences in the proportion holding a trade certificate. For
example, established immigrants had the highest proportion of the population
with a trade certificate at 12.5 percent. This is 7.0 percentage points higher than
the recent immigrant population and 8.4 percentage points greater than very
recent immigrants where the rate was 4.1 percent of the population.
Encouraging a greater representation of very recent immigrants to trades in
general, and certain trades occupations specifically, may provide an incremental
source of labour supply, while also addressing the need for training and economic
integration of new arrivals.

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                      [ 10 ]
INTRODUCTION        TRADE OCCUPATIONS        CONTEXT             PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK         SUMMARY              APPENDICES: A-D

Provincial Outlook
In 2010, trades occupation employment, at just over 251,000, made up 11.1                                                                                                                      Annual Average
                                                                                                                                                                       2010         2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                 % Change
percent of provincial employment. By 2020, it is projected that 282,400 workers
will be employed in trades occupations (representing 10.9 percent of the total                           Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics
                                                                                                                                                                       21,210       23,610                1.1
                                                                                                         (Except Motor vehicle)
employment). It is projected that the trades occupations employment growth
                                                                                                         Automotive Service Technicians                                25,110       28,710                1.3
will average 1.2 percent over the next 10 years. By comparison, total provincial
                                                                                                         Other Mechanics                                               3,940        4,440                 1.2
occupation growth will average 1.4 percent over the same projection period
(0.2 percentage points more than trades occupations). It should be noted that a                          Crane Operators, Drillers and Blasters                         2,170        2,380                0.9
large part of this growth occurs in the mid-term (5 years) projection, and begins                        Heavy Equipment Operators                                     13,700       15,270                1.1
to slow down in the long-term forecast. This occurs because employment is                                Total trades                                                 251,340      282,390                1.2
driven by variables such as confirmed construction projects, and variables of                            Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
this nature can change in the long-term, driving projected employment up or
                                                                                                         The projected fastest growing trades occupations are technical operations in
down, as the number of projects increases or decreases. So while employment
                                                                                                         personal services (1.6%); chefs and cooks (1.6%), machinists and related occupa-
is growing on average over the horizon, the demand for workers increases faster
                                                                                                         tions (1.3%) and automotive services technicians (1.3%). Conversely, the slowest
than the rate at which they are employed, leading to a tight labour market
                                                                                                         growth is projected to be seen in crane operators, drillers and blasters (0.9%);
condition (a deficit in workers supplied compared to those workers demanded)
                                                                                                         masonry and plastering trades (0.9%) and carpenters and cabinetmakers (0.9%).
in the second half of the projection.
                                                                                                         To a large extent, demand for occupations in the trades/transport (NOC7)
Table 11: Trade Occupations Employment: 2010 and 2020                                                    category22 is driven by the level of construction activity in the economy. Over
                                                                                  Annual Average         the last 10 years, construction industry GDP has expanded at an average annual
                                                        2010          2020
                                                                                    % Change             rate of 5.6 percent, while the economy grew at a rate of 2.4 percent.23 Over
All Occupations                                        2,256,500 2,589,100              1.4              the same period, construction industry employment grew at an annual rate
Chefs and Cooks                                         35,870        41,990            1.6              of 5.4 percent.24 Over the next 10 years, (2010 to 2020) trades/transport (NOC7)
Butchers and Bakers                                      9,020        10,050            1.1              occupation employment is projected to expand at an annual average rate of 1.1
Technical Occupations in Personal Services              16,140        18,850            1.6
                                                                                                         percent. Historically (2000-2010), those NOC7 occupations have had an average
                                                                                                         annual growth rate of 1.8 percent.25
Machinists and Related Occupations                       4,130         4,700            1.3
Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations     20,690        23,090            1.1              Demand for sales and service trade occupations (NOC6), along with automotive
Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters                    12,030         13,330           1.0              service technicians and other mechanics, is more generally influenced by overall
Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades              16,570        18,560            1.1              demographic growth in the province (a larger population results in more clients
Carpenters and Cabinetmakers                            35,280        38,440            0.9              for these trades). Over the next 10 years – 2010 to 2020 – these occupations are
Masonry and Plastering Trades                           12,470         13,670           0.9              22   Excluding automotive service technicians and other mechanics.
Other Construction Trades                               23,020         25,310           1.0              23   Statistics Canada (CANSIM tables 379-0025 and 379-0026), gross domestic product chained (2002).
                                                                                                         24   Labour Force Survey 2010, table-008.
                                                                                                         25   Labour Force Survey 2010, table-010.

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expected to see annual average employment growth of 1.3 percent according                                                Overall, in British Columbia, annual average growth in total occupational
to the BC Labour Market Scenario Model. This growth mirrors the expected                                                 demand28 will reach 1.4 percent, adding approximately 1.03 million job openings
population increase in B.C. (1.3 percent).26                                                                             over the outlook period (2010 to 2020). In comparison, the outlook for trades
Economic and demographic growth in the province will result in higher demand                                             occupations will see an average 1.2 percent growth annually, which will generate
for trades occupations between 2010 and 2020. The other occupational demand                                              over 104,600 job openings by 2020.
driver over this period will be replacement demand, demand necessary to                                                  Over the projection period (2010 to 2020), annual average trades occupation labour
compensate for exits due to retirements and deaths. Replacement demand                                                   demand growth (1.2%) will outstrip labour supply growth (0.9%). As illustrated
is driven by the aging of the population. In 1980 the median age of the B.C.                                             in figure 4, the excess supply (over demand) position for trades occupations in
population was 30.4 years. By 2010, it jumped to 40.8 years and, in 2020, it is                                          B.C. will go from 4,990 to -2,340 in 2020, indicating more demand than can be
expected to reach 42.3 years. By the end of BC Stats’ population projection period                                       met by the supply.
(2036), the median age for B.C. will reach 45.4 years.27
                                                                                                                         Figure 4: Excess supply outlook (supply less demand), British Columbia:
Figure 3: Expected demand for trades occupations, British Columbia:                                                      2010 to 2020
2010 to 2020                                                                                                              5000
                                        Chefs and cooks
                                                                                                                          4000
                                    Butchers and bakers
               Technical occupations in personal service
                                                                                                                          3000
                    Machinists and related occupations
                Electrical trades and telecommunication
                                                                                                                          2000
                    Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters                                                                                                                             NOC6            NOC7
             Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades
                                                                                                                          1000
                         Carpenters and cabinetmakers
                         Masonry and plastering trades
                                                                                                                               0
                              Other construction trades
Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics…
                                                                                                                         -1000
                                       Other mechanics
                        Automotive service technicians
                                                                                 Replacement        Expansion            -2000
                   Crane operators, drillers and blasters
                            Heavy equipment operators
                                                                                                                         -3000
                                                            0     3000    6000       9000         12000     15000                  2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model                                                                                  Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model

26    BC Stats’ PEOPLE 35 population projection – online at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca.                               28   Occupational demand is comprised of the number of expected employed workers plus the number of workers
27   Ibid.                                                                                                                    that are normally unemployed: Demand = employment/(1-normal unemployment rate).

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INTRODUCTION    TRADE OCCUPATIONS    CONTEXT       PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK   SUMMARY   APPENDICES: A-D

Supply and demand for all the outlook trades will see supply equal to demand by
as early as 2013 for some occupations. Heavy equipment operators are expected
to be relatively balanced, but having a shortage by as much as 90 workers in
2020. Chefs and cooks are expected to have the largest deficit of workers by
2020, with as many as 400 workers being required to fill the unmet demand. On
the other hand, crane operators, drillers and blasters are the closest to having
supply and demand equivalence for the labour market, with demand exceeding
supply by 20 workers in 2020.
By the end of the outlook period, excess trades demand in B.C. will account for
less than 0.8 percent of the trades labour force – essentially, as an occupational
group, it will be in balance based on current economic and construction forecasts.

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INTRODUCTION    TRADE OCCUPATIONS   CONTEXT       PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK         SUMMARY                 APPENDICES: A-D

Regional Outlook
Overwhelmingly, most trades employment is concentrated in the Mainland/                   Figure 5: Regional distribution of trades and all occupation employment
Southwest region of the province: over half (55.3%) of the 251,340 trades occupa-         (percent of total): 2010
tion employment in 2010 was concentrated in Mainland/Southwest. The labour
market outlook predicts that this distribution will increase slightly (to 57.4%)            Mainland/Southwest
over the next ten years (see table 12).
                                                                                          Vancouver Island/Coast
The annual average growth in trades occupation employment will be the
highest in North Coast and Nechako (2.7%), Northeast (1.8%) and Mainland/                  Thompson-Okanagan
Southwest (1.6%). The regions with the lowest annual average growth rates will
be Cariboo (0.03%), Vancouver Island/Coast (0.3%), Thompson-Okanagan (0.8%)                            Kootenay
and Kootenay (0.8%). B.C. as a whole is projected to have an annual average
growth rate of 1.2 percent for trades occupations.                                                        Cariboo                          All occupations

Regional trades employment growth will be slower than total occupational                              Northeast                            Trade occupations
growth in all but three regions. Mainland/Southwest and Northeast will have
the same average annual growth rate for both the total occupational and trades            North Coast & Nechako
employment, and North Coast and Nechako will have a lower total occupational
                                                                                                                    0     10         20   30     40          50   60   70
employment average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent. Cariboo (0.6%), Kootenay
(1.1%), Thompson-Okanagan (1.1%) and Vancouver Island/Coast (0.8%) will all               Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
have higher total occupational average annual growth rates relative to the
trades occupations.                                                                       Examining the regional distribution of trades occupations relative to all occupa-
                                                                                          tions (figure 5) shows that, to a large extent, the distributions are similar, but
                                                                                          there are two notable exceptions: The representation of trades occupations in
                                                                                          Mainland/Southwest is 6.2 percentage points lower than for all occupations
                                                                                          (61.5%), while for all other regions trades representation is higher. In Thompson-
                                                                                          Okanagan, the representation for all occupations is 2.5 percentage points less
                                                                                          than the region’s trades occupations representation.
                                                                                          While trades employment is mostly concentrated in Mainland/Southwest, trades
                                                                                          only account for 10.0 percent of total employment, below the provincial share
                                                                                          of 11.1 percent in 2010. Trades employment accounts for the greatest share of
                                                                                          total employment (16.3%) in the Northeast, followed closely by Kootenay (15.6%).

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                      [ 14 ]
INTRODUCTION          TRADE OCCUPATIONS             CONTEXT            PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK        REGIONAL OUTLOOK         SUMMARY                APPENDICES: A-D

Between 2010 and 2020, despite the differential growth across regions, in B.C.,                                     with the remaining four regions making up the remainder. Cariboo, North
the relative share of trades employment is expected to decrease slightly (10.9%                                     Coast and Nechako and Northeast will have equal shares of 3 percent and the
in 2020).                                                                                                           Kootenay region will have just under a 2 percent share.
Table 12: Trades Employment 2010 and 2020                                                                           In relative terms, demand for trades will be more or less significant by region. In
                                                                                                                    North Coast and Nechako nearly one-in-five workers in the demand outlook from
                                          Trades              All Occupations               Percent Trades
                                                                                                                    2010-2020 are projected to be in the trades occupations. Conversely, one-in-ten
2010                                                                                                                workers in the demand outlooks of the Mainland/Southwest and Vancouver
Vancouver Island/Coast                    44,940                    383,800                       11.7              Island/Coast will be workers in the trades occupations.
Mainland/Southwest                        139,050                   1,388,400                     10.0
Thompson-Okanagan                         34,820                     257,200                      13.5
                                                                                                                    Table 13: Regional trade occupations demand outlook: 2010 to 2020
Kootenay                                   10,810                    69,400                       15.6                                                             Replacement             Expansion       Total
Cariboo                                    10,760                    80,300                       13.4              British Columbia                                   70,760                 33,880       104,640
North Coast and Nechako                    4,920                     40,400                       12.2              Vancouver Island/Coast                             13,030                   1,450      14,480
Northeast                                  6,020                     37,000                       16.3              Mainland/Southwest                                 37,640                  25,790      63,430
British Columbia                          251,340                  2,256,500                      11.1              Thompson-Okanagan                                  9,580                    3,140       12,720
2020                                                                                                                Kootenay                                            3,380                   880         4,260
Vancouver Island/Coast                    46,320                     416,730                      11.1              Cariboo                                             3,350                   -140        3,210
Mainland/Southwest                        162,220                   1,632,210                     9.9               North Coast and Nechako                             2,060                   1,560       3,620
Thompson-Okanagan                          37,790                   286,660                       13.2              Northeast                                           1,710                   1,200       2,910
Kootenay                                   11,700                    77,770                       15.0              Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Total is replacement plus expansion.)
Cariboo                                    10,760                    85,300                       12.7
North Coast and Nechako                    6,400                     46,360                       13.8
                                                                                                                    When we consider the source of demand, we see that replacement demand is a
                                                                                                                    significant driving factor: the demand to replace retired trades workers accounts
Northeast                                  7,170                     44,070                       16.3
                                                                                                                    for over half of the total trades demand in every B.C. development region. The
British Columbia                          282,390                  2,589,100                     10.9
                                                                                                                    share of replacement demand out of the total demand for trade occupations
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Regions may not sum to B.C. total due to rounding. Percent Trades
is based on rounded figures [trades/all occupations.])                                                              ranges from a high of 100% in Cariboo to a low of 57% in the North Coast and
                                                                                                                    Nechako region.
The economic and demographic drivers of occupational expansion demand,
along with the need to replace workers exiting trades (through retirement or
death), will result in considerable demand for skilled trades people.
Labour demand for trades occupations over the outlook period will be concen-
trated in Mainland/Southwest (61%), with this region needing over 63,000 new
trades workers over the next 10 years. Together, Vancouver Island/Coast (14%)
and Thompson-Okanagan (12%) will account for one quarter of total demand,

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INTRODUCTION         TRADE OCCUPATIONS       CONTEXT    PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK              SUMMARY             APPENDICES: A-D

Figure 6: Regional shares in trades labour demand: 2010 to 2020                                        At the provincial level, expansion demand will account for almost a third
                                                                                                       (32.4%) of total demand. At the regional level, there is some notable variation
                  Rest of Province                      Vancouver Island/Coast
                       13.4%                                                                           in distribution. Cariboo will see a slight decrease in expansion demand (-4.4%),
Thompson-Okanagan                                              13.8%                                   while Northeast (41.3%) will see the greatest.
      12.2%
                                                                                                       Specific occupational demand will also vary considerably by region (see table
                                                                                                       14). In Cariboo, nearly a quarter (23.1%) of the regional demand will be for
                                                                                                       machinery and transportation equipment mechanics, while in Northeast it
                                                                                                       is heavy equipment operators (22.9%) that account for the most significant
                                                 Mainland/Southwest                                    demand share. In Vancouver Island/Coast, chefs and cooks (15.1%) will account
                                                        60.6%                                          for the largest occupational share of the trades labour demand from 2010-2020.
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model

Table 14: Trades labour demand, share of total trades (percent): 2010 to 2020
                                                       Vancouver Island/                                             Thompson-                                    North Coast
                                                                               Mainland/ Southwest                                      Kootenay        Cariboo                 Northeast
                                                            Coast                                                    Okanagan                                     and Nechako
Chefs and cooks                                                  15.1                           14.9                    10.3                     6.6      16.9        9.4          8.6
Butchers and bakers                                              3.6                            3.4                     2.4                      3.3      1.9         1.9          1.7
Technical occupations in personal service                        9.0                            7.1                     5.7                      1.9      8.4         2.8          1.7
Machinists and related occupations                               1.4                            2.3                     1.0                      0.9      1.6         0.6          1.0
Electrical trades and telecommunication                          9.3                            9.8                     9.5                      11.5     6.6         10.2         9.6
Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters                            4.2                            4.9                     4.3                      5.2      2.8         5.0          6.5
Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades                       4.8                            7.0                     6.2                      6.1      7.2         6.1          6.8
Carpenters and cabinetmakers                                     13.2                           12.5                    13.7                     14.4     2.8         15.0         11.3
Masonry and plastering trades                                    3.5                            4.8                     5.1                      4.0      0.0         2.2          2.1
Other construction trades                                        7.0                            9.1                     7.5                      4.9      0.6         5.8          5.8
Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics                 8.8                            7.7                     11.8                     15.1     23.1        15.8         14.4
Automotive service technicians                                   11.4                           10.8                    10.3                     6.4      15.0        7.5          6.8
Other mechanics                                                   2.7                           1.7                     1.7                      0.9      2.5         1.9          0.3
Crane operators, drillers and blasters                           0.9                            0.7                     0.9                      1.6      0.6         1.4          0.3
Heavy equipment operators                                        5.2                            3.4                     9.7                      17.2     10.0        14.4         22.9
Total Trades                                                    100.0                       100.0                      100.0                100.0        100.0       100.0        100.0
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model

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INTRODUCTION   TRADE OCCUPATIONS   CONTEXT      PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK         SUMMARY               APPENDICES: A-D

When we compare regional labour demand growth to labour supply growth                   Figure 7: Regional supply/demand annual average growth (percent):
over the outlook period, what becomes apparent is that in every region demand           2010 to 2020
growth outstrips supply growth, except for Cariboo where both are projected
to shrink. For the North Coast and Nechako, Northeast, Kootenay and Mainland/           Vancouver Island/Coast
Southwest regions, demand is expected to outstrip supply by 0.3 percentage
points. For Vancouver Island/Coast, demand is only expected to outstrip supply           Thompson-Okanagan

by 0.1 percentage points.
                                                                                                    Northeast

                                                                                        North Coast & Nechako

                                                                                          Mainland/Southwest

                                                                                                     Kootenay
                                                                                                                                              Demand

                                                                                                      Cariboo                                 Supply

                                                                                                             -0.5      0.0        0.5   1.0   1.5      2.0   2.5

                                                                                        Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model

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INTRODUCTION         TRADE OCCUPATIONS       CONTEXT    PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK    REGIONAL OUTLOOK       SUMMARY         APPENDICES: A-D

Table 15 shows that labour supply is expected to shrink for some occupations                     masonry and plastering trades, and other construction trades. Little or no growth
in some regions. For example, in Vancouver Island/Coast, the labour supply                       is expected in a variety of occupations across the regions, including but not
is forecast to shrink for plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters, carpenters and                  limited to machinists and related occupations in Cariboo, electrical trades and
cabinetmakers, crane operators, drillers and blasters, heavy equipment operators,                telecommunication in Vancouver Island/Coast and other mechanics in Northeast.
Table 15: Trades labour supply, annual average growth (percent): 2010 to 2020
                                                        Vancouver                                        Thompson-                                 North Coast
                                                                             Mainland/ Southwest                            Kootenay    Cariboo                     Northeast
                                                       Island/ Coast                                     Okanagan                                  and Nechako
Chefs and cooks                                               0.9                        1.4                   1.0                0.3      1.9           1.6             2.4
Butchers and bakers                                           0.4                        1.2                   0.4                0.7     -0.2          0.6              0.3
Technical occupations in personal service                     1.7                        1.3                   0.8               -0.4      1.8           2.3             0.1
Machinists and related occupations                            0.3                        1.3                   0.4               -0.3     0.3            1.4             1.0
Electrical trades and telecommunication                       0.0                        1.3                   0.6                0.5     -1.6          2.0              1.7
Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters                        -0.3                        1.2                   0.4                0.4     -1.8          2.8              2.0
Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades                    0.2                        1.3                   0.4                0.2     -0.5           1.8             1.0
Carpenters and cabinetmakers                                 -0.5                        1.2                   0.4                0.3     -2.3          3.9              1.7
Masonry and plastering trades                                -0.6                        1.2                   0.4                0.3     -2.9          4.3              1.7
Other construction trades                                    -0.5                        1.2                   0.4                0.4     -2.2          4.0              1.5
Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics              0.3                        1.2                   0.5                0.5     0.3            1.2             1.2
Automotive service technicians                                1.3                        1.3                   0.6                0.2     0.8            1.5             0.4
Other mechanics                                               0.9                        1.2                   0.6               -0.1      0.1           1.5             0.2
Crane operators, drillers and blasters                       -0.3                        1.2                   0.4                0.5     -1.6           1.6             2.1
Heavy equipment operators                                    -0.2                        1.2                   0.5                0.7     -0.7          2.8              2.0
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                         [ 18 ]
INTRODUCTION    TRADE OCCUPATIONS   CONTEXT       PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK        SUMMARY        APPENDICES: A-D

Summary
The trades employment outlook in B.C. is relatively strong, although trades               demand for the trades is expected to outpace the labour supply in 2016, and as
demand will grow at a slightly lower rate than the provincial all occupation              early as 2013 for some occupations, there is an increasing need to educate and
average over the forecast period. According to 2010 Labour Force Survey, the              train labour force entrants, and enable skilled workers, including newcomers,
vast majority (92.2%) of those employed as trades, transport and equipment                to obtain trades credentials through assessments that fairly and objectively
operators were employed full-time. All the trade occupations posted rates of              evaluate their skills and experience.
full-time employment above the provincial average. This is exemplified by the             One potential source of relatively untapped supply is the female population.
APPSO survey, which reported 96 percent of employed respondents were                      Female representation in trades/transport (NOC7) occupations has been relatively
working full-time.                                                                        flat over the last decade, accounting for only 3.1 percent of the total in 2006. An
There still is underrepresentation of female workers in the trades for some               increase in female representation would certainly bolster the supply side for
occupations, but there have been vast improvements in female representation               trades occupations in British Columbia. Another source of potential supply is
from the 1996 Census to the 2006 Census.                                                  the Aboriginal population. While Aboriginal peoples have higher representation
Aboriginal people are still currently underrepresented in some occupations such           for many trades occupations, attracting them into the trades continues to be
as machinists, metal forming, shaping and erecting occupations but tend to be             an important issue. Where success can be achieved is in increasing their overall
fairly represented in the sales and service occupations. According to the 2006            labour market participation, which should positively impact supply. Finally,
Census, 12.5 percent of Aboriginal people (15 years or age and over) earned an            attracting new immigrants into trades occupations has the benefit of potentially
apprenticeship or trades certificate. This is a greater proportion than the non-          strengthening labour supply, while at the same time facilitating the training and
Aboriginal population where just 10.9 percent of the population held a trades             economic integration of new arrivals.
certificate. This trend is expected to continue as the proportion of Aboriginal
peoples in trades training programs has grown significantly since 2006.
The 2006 Census results indicated that overall immigrant representation in trades
was slightly below general occupational participation, but with some consider-
able differences. Established immigrants in trades mirrored overall occupational
participation, but this is not true for very recent and recent immigrants.
The provincial trades outlook is positive, as employment in all of the trade
occupations is expected to enjoy positive average yearly growth in employment
up to 2020, with the strongest growth expected from chefs and cooks. The
trades as a whole are expecting an average yearly employment growth of 1.2
percent. Relative to expansion demand, replacement demand makes up the
majority of the expected demand for the trades occupations, signalling that the
economy is expected to remain strong as the job openings are derived from
labour market needs and vacancies due to retiring older workers. As labour

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                 [ 19 ]
INTRODUCTION        TRADE OCCUPATIONS           CONTEXT          PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK      REGIONAL OUTLOOK        SUMMARY              APPENDICES: A-D

Appendix A: Trades Occupations, 4-Digit Composition
Table A1: 4-digit NOC composition of selected trades occupations
                                                                                                            724–Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations
6–Sales and Service Occupations
                                                                                                                7241–Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System)
62–Skilled Sales and Service Occupations
                                                                                                                7242–Industrial Electricians
    624–Chefs and Cooks
                                                                                                                7243–Power System Electricians
    6241–Chefs
                                                                                                                7244–Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers
    6242–Cooks
                                                                                                                7245–Telecommunications Line and Cable Workers
625–Butchers and Bakers                                                                                         7246–Telecommunications Installation and Repair Workers
    6251–Butchers, Meat Cutters and Fishmongers–Retail and Wholesale                                            7247–Cable Television Service and Maintenance Technicians
    6252–Bakers
                                                                                                            725–Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gas Fitters
627–Technical Occupations in Personal Service                                                                   7251–Plumbers
    6271–Hairstylists and Barbers                                                                               7252–Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers
    6272–Funeral Directors and Embalmers                                                                        7253–Gas Fitters
7–Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations                                         726–Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades
72/73–Trades and Skilled Transport and Equipment Operators                                                      7261–Sheet Metal Workers
    721–Contractors and Supervisors, Trades and Related Workers                                                 7262–Boilermakers
    7211–Supervisors, Machinists and Related Occupations                                                        7263–Structural Metal and Platework Fabricators and Fitters
    7212–Contractors and Supervisors, Electrical Trades and Telecommunications Occupations                      7264–Ironworkers
    7213–Contractors and Supervisors, Pipefitting Trades                                                        7265–Welders and Related Machine Operators
    7214–Contractors and Supervisors, Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades                                7266–Blacksmiths and Die Setters
    7215–Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trades                                                      727–Carpenters and Cabinetmakers
    7216–Contractors and Supervisors, Mechanic Trades                                                           7271–Carpenters
    7217–Contractors and Supervisors, Heavy Construction Equipment Crews                                        7272–Cabinetmakers
    7218–Supervisors, Printing and Related Occupations
                                                                                                            728–Masonry and Plastering Trades
    7219–Contractors and Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers and Servicers
                                                                                                                7281–Bricklayers
722–Supervisors, Railway and Motor Transportation Occupations                                                   7282–Concrete Finishers
    7221–Supervisors, Railway Transport Operations                                                              7283–Tilesetters
    7222–Supervisors, Motor Transport and Other Ground Transit Operators                                        7284–Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers
723–Machinists and Related Occupations                                                                      729–Other Construction Trades
    7231–Machinists and Machining and Tooling Inspectors                                                        7291–Roofers and Shinglers
    7232–Tool and Die Makers                                                                                    7292–Glaziers
                                                                                                                7293–Insulators
                                                                                                                7294–Painters and Decorators
                                                                                                                7295–Floor Covering Installers

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                           [ 20 ]
INTRODUCTION       TRADE OCCUPATIONS         CONTEXT           PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK   REGIONAL OUTLOOK   SUMMARY   APPENDICES: A-D

731–Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics (Except Motor Vehicle)
    7311–Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics (Except Textile)
    7312–Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics
    7313–Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanics
    7314–Railway Carmen/women
    7315–Aircraft Mechanics and Aircraft Inspectors
    7316–Machine Fitters
    7317–Textile Machinery Mechanics and Repairers
    7318–Elevator Constructors and Mechanics
732–Automotive Service Technicians
    7321–Automotive Service Technicians, Truck and Bus Mechanics and Mechanical Repairers
    7322–Motor Vehicle Body Repairers
733–Other Mechanics
    7331–Oil and Solid Fuel Heating Mechanics
    7332–Electric Appliance Servicers and Repairers
    7333–Electrical Mechanics
    7334–Motorcycle and Other Related Mechanics
    7335–Other Small Engine and Equipment Mechanics
737–Crane Operators, Drillers and Blasters
    7371–Crane Operators
    7372–Drillers and Blasters–Surface Mining, Quarrying and Construction
    7373–Water Well Drillers
74–Intermediate Occupations in Transport, Equipment Operation, Installation and Maintenance
    742–Heavy Equipment Operators
    7421–Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane)
    7422–Public Works Maintenance Equipment Operators

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                             [ 21 ]
INTRODUCTION          TRADE OCCUPATIONS             CONTEXT              PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK       REGIONAL OUTLOOK         SUMMARY                APPENDICES: A-D

Appendix B: Regional Demand Outlook Tables, 2010 to 2020
Table B1: Occupation demand outlook – British Columbia                                                               Table B2: Occupation demand outlook – Vancouver Island/Coast
                                                          Replacement             Expansion            Total                                                                   Replacement             Expansion            Total
Chefs and cooks                                                  7,650                 6,720            14,370       Chefs and cooks                                                  1,350                  830             2,180
Butchers and bakers                                              2,210                 1,100             3,320       Butchers and bakers                                               410                   110              520
Technical occupations in personal service                        4,100                 2,920            7,020        Technical occupations in personal service                         700                  600              1,300
Machinists and related occupations                               1,300                  610              1,910       Machinists and related occupations                                180                   20               200
Electrical trades and telecommunication                          7,440                 2,660            10,100       Electrical trades and telecommunication                          1,340                  10               1,350
Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters                            3,500                 1,450            4,950        Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters                             670                  -60               610
Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades                      4,620                  2,200            6,810        Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades                        620                   70               690
Carpenters and cabinetmakers                                    9,680                  3,500            13,180       Carpenters and cabinetmakers                                     2,400                 -490              1,910
Masonry and plastering trades                                    3,150                 1,340            4,490        Masonry and plastering trades                                     660                  -160              500
Other construction trades                                        5,770                 2,560            8,330        Other construction trades                                        1,300                 -280             1,020
Machinery and transportation equipment                                                                               Machinery and transportation equipment
                                                                 7,480                 2,540            10,020                                                                        1,120                  150              1,270
mechanics (except motor vehicle)                                                                                     mechanics (except motor vehicle)
Automotive service technicians                                   7,150                 3,850            11,000       Automotive service technicians                                   1,050                  590             1,640
Other mechanics                                                  1,360                  540             1,900        Other mechanics                                                   290                   100              390
Crane operators, drillers and blasters                           650                    220              870         Crane operators, drillers and blasters                            140                   -10              130
Heavy equipment operators                                       4,690                  1,670            6,360        Heavy equipment operators                                         800                  -40               760
Trades Occupations                                              70,750                33,890           104,640       Trades Occupations                                              13,030                1,440            14,470
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Total is based on replacement plus expansion. The total for the       Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Total is based on replacement plus expansion. The total for the
Trades Occupations is based on rounded projections.)                                                                 Trades Occupations is based on rounded projections.)

British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020                                                                                                                                                                           [ 22 ]
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