Trade Occupations Outlook - NOVEMBER 2011
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
BRITISH COLUMBIA
Trade Occupations Outlook
NOVEMBER 2011
2010-2020
INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Contents Introduction 2 Appendix A: Trades Occupations, 4-Digit Composition 20 Trade Occupations 3 Appendix B: Regional Demand Outlook Tables, 2010 to 2020 22 Context 4 Appendix C: Definitions 26 Provincial Outlook 11 Appendix D: Economic Development Regions in B.C. 27 Regional Outlook 14 Summary 19 British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [1]
INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Introduction
According to the Labour Force Survey, between 2002 and 2008, British Columbia The following analysis is based on results from the second edition of the British
enjoyed steady employment growth, with an annual average growth rate of Columbia Labour Market Outlook (2010-2020), from the British Columbia Labour
2.5 percent – hitting a high of 3.5 percent between 2006 and 2007. During this Market Scenario Model. The model and the annual Outlook provide reliable labour
time, demand for skilled trade workers enjoyed rapid employment growth, market information to a variety of users. This model allows users to accurately
with an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. However, as a result of the economic forecast occupational demand and supply on a regional and provincial basis.
downturn, B.C.’s labour market struggled, starting in October 2008 and going The analysis also incorporates data from the 2006 Census, Labour Force Survey,
into 2009. Skilled trade workers sustained greater employment losses compared as well as the findings from the 2010 BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes
to all occupations in B.C.‘s economy (-6.7% and -2.1% between 2008 and 2009, (APPSO) Survey.1
respectively). In spite of the gains for skilled trade workers reported in 2010, In February 2011, Statistics Canada made revisions to the Labour Force Survey
employment in 2010 was still below the 2008 high – 251,340 vs. 269,420, according back to 1996, based on 2006 Census population counts. Sub-provincial estimates
to the BC Labour Market Scenario Model results. As British Columbia and Canada now correspond to 2006 Census boundaries. This has caused the 2009 B.C.
transition from recession to recovery, employers and policy makers are interested labour force population to be revised downward by 43,700 from 3,706,700 to
in better information upon which to base their decision-making. 3,663,000. Consistent with the revised population figure, provincial labour force
and employment estimates for 2009 have been pushed downward by 42,700
and 41,500, respectively.
1 The BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes (APPSO) Survey is an annual province-wide survey of former
apprenticeship students who have completed their final year of apprenticeship training in a participating B.C.
post-secondary institution. For further detail see: http://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Default/Home.aspx.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [2]
INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Trade Occupations
The Trades Outlook Report 2010-2020, predicts that labour market conditions Table 1: Selected trades occupations
are going to tighten, with labour shortages for the trades sector as a whole
624–Chefs and Cooks
expected by 2016. In comparison, in the Trades Outlook 2009-2019, labour
625–Butchers and Bakers
shortages were not expected for the trades sector as a whole. Over the outlook
627–Technical Occupations in Personal Services
period, labour market conditions for trade occupations were forecast to move
723–Machinists and Related Occupations
from excess supply to balanced conditions. Of projected job openings, a larger
724–Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations
than previously forecasted proportion is due to replacement demand, opposed
to expansion demand. These projections are subject to change as long term 725–Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters
projections require the economic activity of those major construction projects 726–Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades
that are already confirmed. Because of this, the long-term forecasts may increase 727–Carpenters and Cabinetmakers
or decrease as a result of the potential increase or decrease in the number of 728–Masonry and Plastering Trades
major construction projects in the province in the future. 729–Other Construction Trades
731–Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics (Except Motor vehicle)
Trades occupations are typically characterized as requiring apprenticeship
732–Automotive Service Technicians
training, which in most cases includes some college training. Under the National
Occupational Classification (NOC) many of these trade occupations are identified 733–Other Mechanics
as skill level B. In British Columbia, there are more than 140 apprentice trade 737–Crane Operators, Driller and Blasters
programs that lead to a government-recognized credential. 742–Heavy Equipment Operators
For the purpose of this analysis, a representative list of 15 trade occupations was These occupations include those designated trades with the largest number
identified. The selected occupations are concentrated in two NOC skill types: of registered apprentices as well as those where sub-occupational groups are
trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (NOC7), primarily trade occupations. This list represents 79 separate trades and the vast
and sales and service occupations (NOC6).2 majority (over 90%) of current active apprentices as of July 31, 2011.3
Detailed information on each of the selected trades, and other designated
occupations, can be obtained from the British Columbia Industry Training
Authority (ITA) at: www.itabc.ca.
3 Industry Training Authority (ITA) Performance Measurement Report, August 31, 2011–http://www.itabc.ca/
2 See Appendix A for a complete listing of the 4-digit NOC composition for these 3-digit trade occupations. AssetFactory.aspx?did=2281.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [3]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Context
Understanding the current and expected characteristics for trades occupations Over the next 10 years, some occupations are expected to experience a drop in
provides the necessary context upon which to assess the future demand and the average age, such as machinery and transportation equipment mechanics
supply mix and potential constraints and opportunities in optimizing the mix. (except motor vehicle) where the average age is expected to decline from 43.5
to 42.2, reflecting older workers exiting the labour force (i.e., retiring or dying)
Age and younger workers joining the occupational ranks.4 Where the average age
Relative to the overall labour force, where the average age was 40.5 years in is increasing, such as for chefs and cooks, this situation may indicate that exits
2010, heavy equipment operators and machinery and transportation equipment and/or the expected inflow of younger workers are relatively slow.
mechanics were 2.9 and 3.0 years older, respectively. Conversely, chefs and cooks While the underlying motivations (conscious or unconscious) for exits are readily
were 3.6 years younger than the all-occupations average. apparent, on the entry side, there are a number of factors at play to influence
young workers’ decisions to enter an occupation or field of work. Attractive factors,
Table 2: Labour Force Average Age by Occupation in B.C., 2010 and 2020
such as current labour market conditions and remunerations, are important
2010 2020 indicators for occupational entry.
All occupations 40.5 40.9
Chefs and Cooks 36.9 39.2 Current Labour Market Conditions
Butchers and Bakers 39.6 40.6 In 2010, the overall unemployment rate in B.C. was 7.6 percent. The employment
Technical Occupations in Personal Services 40.5 41.6 rate was 60.5 percent with 77.6 percent of those employed working full-time. The
Machinists and Related Occupations 42.6 41.9 unemployment rate for sales and service occupations5 (NOC6) was 5.7 percent in
Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations 40.7 40.5 2010. Occupations in protective services were well below the provincial average
Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters 39.9 40.9 at 4.4 percent and chefs and cooks posted an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent.
Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades 40.2 41.0 In 2010, the unemployment rate for trades, transport and equipment operators
Carpenters and Cabinetmakers 40.7 41.6 as a whole was 8.5 percent. However, some occupations fared better than others.
Masonry and Plastering Trades 40.0 41.5 For example, contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation reported
Other Construction Trades 39.5 41.0 an unemployment rate of 4.0 percent while trades helpers, construction, and
Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics transportation labourers posted a rate of 18.3 percent (10.7 percentage points
43.5 42.2
(Except Motor vehicle) above the B.C. rate of 7.6%).
Automotive Service Technicians 40.4 41.0
According to the 2010 Labour Force Survey, the vast majority (92.2%) of those
Other Mechanics 42.9 41.7
employed as trades, transport and equipment operators were employed full-
Crane Operators, Driller and Blasters 41.9 41.7 time. All of the occupations associated with trades, transport and equipment
Heavy Equipment Operators 43.4 42.3
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model 4 Note that the typical length of apprenticeship for many occupations is four years.
5 Includes all sales and service occupations.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [4]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
operators posted full-time rates above the provincial average. However, just Figure 1: Labour market outcome of employed former apprenticeship students
over half (56.6%) of chefs and cooks were employed full-time.
Table 3: Unemployment and full and part time allocation, Work for an employer 92%
annual average 20106
Unemployment Employed Employed Permanent position 93%
rate (%) Full-time Part-time
Total, all occupations 7.6 77.6% 22.4%
Sales and service occupations 5.7 62.2% 37.8% Full-time employment 96%
Chefs and cooks, and occupations
in food and beverage service, 7.2 56.6% 43.4%
including supervisors One job only 94%
Occupations in protective services 4.4 88.7% 11.3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Trades, transport and equipment
8.5 92.2% 7.8%
operators and related occupations Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO Survey
Contractors and supervisors in
4.0 96.9% n/a
trades and transportation Results from the 2010 APPSO survey also reflected varied unemployment rates
Construction trades 9.5 91.5% 8.3% across trade program areas, ranging from a low of 2 percent to a high of 20 percent.
Other trades occupations 6.4 96.1% 3.9% The overall unemployment rate for respondents in 2010 was 11 percent. Former
Transport and equipment operators 7.1 89.4% 10.6% apprenticeship students from steel fabrication and welding (20.0%), pipefitter
Trades helpers, construction, and and sprinkler fitter (16.0%) and construction heavy equipment (16.0%) programs
transportation labourers and related 18.3 83.4% 16.6% had the highest unemployment rates, while those who completed heating,
occupations
air conditioning and refrigeration (2.0%), and medium/heavy duty mechanics
*Includes all occupations under Sales and Service (3.0%) boasted the lowest unemployment rates. (For more information on APPSO,
Source: Statistics Canada, 2010 Labour Force Survey
please see http://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Default/Home.aspx)
Data from the 2010 BC Apprenticeship Student Outcomes (APPSO) survey revealed
similar findings; at the time of the survey 86 percent of survey respondents were
employed. Most employed respondents had only one job and the vast majority
(96%) were employed full-time.
6 Due to rounding, values may not add up to 100.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [5]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Figure 2: Unemployment rates by trade type Table 4: Median Hourly Wage Rates for selected 2 and 3 digit Occupations
Heating Air Conditioning, Refrigeration 2% 2006 Median 2010 Median %
Medium/Heavy Duty Mechanics 3% Hourly Hourly change
Industrial Mechanics & Maintenance 6% Total employees $18.00 $20.98 16.6
Automotive Mechanics 6%
Sales and service occupations* $11.00 $13.00 18.2
Electrician 9%
Autobody/Collision& Repair 9%
Chefs and cooks $11.00 $12.00 9.1
Precision Metal Working 10% Occupation in protective services $21.00 $23.04 9.7
Machinists 10% Trades, transport and equipment operators
Plumbing 11% $20.00 $24.00 20.0
and related occupations
Carpentry 12%
Contractors and supervisors in trades and
Culinary Arts 13% $25.00 $29.54 18.2
transportation
Exterior and Interior Finishing Trades 15%
Pipefitter & Sprinkler Fitter 16%
Construction trades $20.00 $22.00 10.0
Construction Heavy Equipment 16% Other trades occupations $23.00 $27.00 17.4
Steel Fabrication & Welding 20% Transport and equipment operators $20.00 $23.00 15.0
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Trades helpers, construction, and trans-
$15.00 $18.00 20.0
portation labourers and related occupations
Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO Survey
* includes all occupations under Sales and Service Occupations
Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 and 2010 Labour Force Survey
Income
Remuneration likely has an important impact on the attractiveness of some We see similar wage patterns in the 2010 APPSO survey. At the time of the 2010
occupations for younger workers. Estimates of median hourly earnings from survey, the median hourly wage of employed apprentice was $29 – the same
the Labour Force Survey reveal that the sales and service occupations earn as it was for 2009 survey respondents. The hourly wage varies widely across
less per hour than the total occupational average – $13.00 vs. $20.98 in 2010. In occupations. Among the 10 most common occupations, the median hourly
2010, the median hourly wage ranges from a low of $12.00 for chefs and cooks, wage ranges from a low of $15 for chefs and cooks to a high of $33 for machinery
to a high of $29.54 for contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation. and transportation equipment mechanics.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [6]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Table 5: Wage rate by occupation over 85 percent of the trades occupations labour force. However, there are
distinct differences among the trades occupations: when sales and service
Median Hourly
Occupation Respondents
Wage trade occupations are excluded, the male share jumps to almost 97 percent. To a
Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics 240 $33 large extent, the trades/transport (NOC7) occupations remain a “non-traditional”
Printing Press Operators, Commercial Divers, and n.e.c. 30 $32
occupation for women.10
Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations 304 $31 Table 6: Trades Occupations Labour Force, by gender share (percent):
Contractors and Supervisors, Trades and Related 214 $30 1996 and 2006
Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Occupations 180 $30
2006 1996
Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gas Fitters 261 $29
Male Female Male Female
Machinists and Related Occupations 36 $26
All occupations 52.4 47.6 53.3 46.7
Carpenters and Cabinetmakers 240 $26
Chefs and cooks 60.4 39.6 58.0 42.0
Motor Vehicle Mechanics 271 $25
Butchers and bakers 52.9 47.1 65.3 34.7
Chefs and Cooks 51 $15
Technical occupations in personal service 19.4 80.5 20.0 80.0
Note: n.e.c. stands for not elsewhere classified. Machinists and related occupations 98.2 1.7 98.7 1.4
Source: BC Stats, 2010 APPSO, median wages; 3 digit NOC
Electrical trades and telecommunication 96.8 3.2 97.0 3.1
One noticeable factor influencing occupational wage rates is the extent of Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 98.0 2.0 99.0 1.1
unionization. At the national level, union density (unionized workers relative to Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 97.4 2.6 98.2 1.9
total) in 2010 was considerably higher for trades, transportation and equipment Carpenters and cabinetmakers 97.6 2.4 98.0 2.0
operators (37.4%) – ranging from a high of 40.0 percent for “other trades” to a low Masonry and plastering trades 97.0 3.0 97.4 2.6
of 30.2 percent for contractors and supervisors. On the other hand, 10.8 percent 7 Other construction trades 91.1 8.9 93.1 6.8
of workers in food and beverage sales and service occupations were covered Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics
98.6 1.4 99.1 0.9
by collective agreements. Unionization in occupational groups tends to act as (except motor vehicle)
a means of entry management, which may pose a barrier to entry, but keeps Automotive service technicians 98.4 1.6 98.6 1.4
wages relatively higher.8 Other mechanics 98.8 1.2 97.6 2.4
Crane operators, drillers and blasters 98.1 1.9 98.9 1.1
Gender9 Heavy equipment operators 97.0 3.0 98.3 1.7
According to estimates from the 2006 Census, the gender split for trades Source: 1996 and 2006 Census, Statistics Canada
occupations is skewed towards males: overall, male representation was just Overall, the sales and service sector (NOC6) trade occupations are more balanced
7 Uppal, Sharanjit. “Unionization 2010”. September 2010. Statistics Canada. Available on-line at: http://www.
with respect to gender representation: 51.1 percent male and 48.9 percent female.
statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2010110/pdf/11358-eng.pdf .
10 McMullen, K., Jason Gilmore and Christel Le Petit. April 2010. “Women in Non-traditional Occupations and
8 Ibid.
Fields of Study.” Education Matters: Insights on Education, Learning and Training in Canada. Statistics Canada,
9 As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section Catalogue no. 81-004-X. Vol 7, no. 1. Available on-line at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-004-x/2010001/
of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019. article/11151-eng.htm#b.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [7]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
While technical occupations in personal services, which comprises hairstylists however, available tabulations do not provide a perfectly comparable set of
and cosmetologists, is overwhelmingly female-dominated (80.5%), female occupations (see table 7).16
participation in occupations such as cooks and chefs and butchers and bakers
Table 7: Aboriginal share (percent) of occupational employment,
more closely approximates the gender split seen for all occupations in the
British Columbia: 2006
province. Notably, there has been a relative surge of female entrants to trades
training programs. As of March 2011, 10.5 percent of those people registered for 3-Digit NOC
Aboriginal1
an apprenticeship were women; this is up from 8.5 percent in 2009.11 Share (percent)
Composition
of Total
In aggregate, between 1996 and 2006, the female labour force share in trades All occupations 4.0
occupations has remained almost constant – 14.8 percent in 1996 compared Chefs and cooks 624 4.0
to 14.7 percent in 2006. This pattern is similar for the subset of trades/transport Sales and service occupations, n.e.c. 625,627,648,662,664,666,668 5.7
(NOC7) occupations, where the female share rose from 2.4 to 3.1 percent over Construction trades 725,727,728,729 5.4
the 10 year period. Stationary engineers, power station operators
Along with very low rates of participation in trades/transport (NOC7) occupa- and electrical trades and telecommunications 724,726 5.6
occupations
tions, women also tend to be “disproportionately concentrated among the
Machinists, metal forming, shaping and erecting
‘helper’ categories of workers”12, which in part explains the growth and higher 723,726 2.4
occupations
participation for females in the other construction trades occupation. Mechanics 731,732,733 4.0
A number of potential barriers to increased female participation in trades have Heavy equipment and crane operators, including
737,742 3.6
drillers
been identified, including awareness of career options, access to training, and
Source: 2006 Census, Statistics Canada
workplace culture and practices. At the same time, many of these challenges 1 Includes both the on- and off-reserve aboriginal population.
to greater female participation are currently being addressed through change
in legislation and practice.13 Information from the 2006 Census showed that, in British Columbia, the rep-
resentation of Aboriginal people in all occupations was 4.0 percent; however,
A b o r i g i n al I d e n t i t y 1 4 for trades-related occupations, Aboriginal representation was varied. Focusing
The Aboriginal population in British Columbia, which in 2006 numbered just on the most comparable occupation groupings: chefs and cooks (4.0%) and
over 196,000 people or 4.8 percent of the total population,15 has also been mechanics (4.0%) show the same representation as for all-occupations; construc-
identified as a potential source of labour for trades occupations. The 2006 Census tion trades (5.4%) was higher; while machinists, metal forming, shaping and
does provide a perspective on Aboriginal participation in trades occupations; erecting occupations (2.4%) was substantially lower.
11 ITA Annual Service Plan Reports 2010/11. Available online at: http://www.itabc.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=2207.
Examining labour force participation rates from the 2010 Labour Force Survey
12 Vojakovic, Dragana. Women in Trades: Discussion Paper. December 2008. Available on-line at: http://www.itabc. showed that overall participation for the Aboriginal population tended to be
ca/Assets/ITA+Assets/Reports/ITA+Women+in+Trades+Discussion+Paper.pdf. significantly lower than for the non-Aboriginal population. For the core work-
13 Ibid.
14 As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section
of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019.
16 For a complete 3-digit NOC listing, see http://www5.hrsdc.gc.ca/NOC/English/NOC/2006/SearchStructure.aspx.
15 2006 census, Statistics Canada.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [8]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
ing age population (ages 25 to 54), the gap between the non-Aboriginal and perspective, 2006 Census results indicate that overall immigrant representation
Aboriginal population is 13.6 percentage points. in trades was slightly below general occupational participation, but with some
very notable exceptions. In particular, while the representation of established
Table 8: Labour force participation rates (percent), British Columbia: 2010
immigrants in trades mirrored overall occupational participation, that of very
Age Total Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal2 recent and recent immigrants differed markedly from established immigrants.21
15 to 64 years 76.7 77.0 66.5
Table 9: Immigrant representation in trades (percent), by period of landing: 2006
15 to 24 years 63.3 63.6 57.9
25 to 54 years 85.1 85.5 71.9 All Very
Established Recent
Immigrants Recent
Source: 2010 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada
2 Includes only the off-reserve aboriginal population. All occupations 28.5 19.8 4.6 4.1
Chefs and cooks 40.2 27.6 6.9 5.7
According to the 2006 Census, 12.5 percent of Aboriginal people (15 years or Butchers and bakers 38.3 27.7 5.6 5.0
age and over) earned an apprenticeship or trades certificate. This is a greater Technical occupations in personal service 36.2 27.6 5.6 3.0
proportion than non-Aboriginal population where just 10.9 percent of the
Machinists and related occupations 41.0 32.6 5.7 2.8
population held a trade certificate.
Electrical trades and telecommunication 19.3 15.0 2.0 2.3
In has been generally concluded, elsewhere, that the “inclination of Aboriginal Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 19.3 15.0 1.5 2.7
people towards trades [is] somewhat higher than for the non-Aboriginal Metal forming, shaping and erecting
20.5 16.4 1.8 2.2
population.”17 As such, efforts at boosting Aboriginal labour market participation trades
should have positive labour supply implications for trades occupations. Positive Carpenters and cabinetmakers 21.5 15.9 2.7 2.9
progress continues to be made – since 2006, Aboriginal participation in trades Masonry and plastering trades 28.8 20.2 3.7 4.9
training has increased by 118%.18 Other construction trades 27.5 19.2 3.7 4.7
Machinery and transportation equipment
19.8 16.0 2.2 1.6
Imm i g r a n t s 1 9 mechanics (except motor vehicle)
Automotive service technicians 26.5 21.0 3.3 2.2
According to results from the 2006 Census, immigrants represented just over a
Other mechanics 24.0 20.1 1.9 1.9
quarter (27.5%) of the total population of British Columbia. The province annually
accounts for almost 17 percent of immigrant landings to Canada. With an average Crane operators, drillers and blasters 8.7 8.2 0.7 -
annual immigration of 41,940 individuals to B.C.,20 new immigrants represent a Heavy equipment operators 9.4 7.7 0.9 0.7
potential supply of labour for skilled trades occupations. From an occupational Total Trades 26.3 19.5 3.5 3.2
Source: 2006 Census, Statistics Canada
17 A Study of Aboriginal Participation in the Construction Industry. November 2005. Available on-line at: http://
www.csc-ca.org/pdf/Aboriginal_report_e.pdf.
One interesting observation from the Census occupational profile of immigrants is
18 2010/2011 Canada-BC Labour Market Agreement Industry Training Authority Success Report, May 2011. that established and recent immigrants had a significantly higher representation
Available on-line at: http://www.itabc.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=2116.
21 These immigrant categories refer to immigrants period of landing, relative to the timing of the census: ‘very
19 As the 2006 Census data are the most recent available data, any context referencing Census data in this section
recent’ immigrants having landed within the last five years (2001-2006); ‘recent’ immigrants having landed
of the report will be the same as the Trades Occupations Outlook 2009-2019.
between five and ten years prior (1996-2001); and ‘established immigrants’ being those who landed more than
20 Statistics Canada, Demography Division estimates over the period 2004-05 to 2009-10. ten years ago (pre-1996).
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [9]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
in the three sales and service sector (NOC6) trade occupations and machinists
and related occupations. For very recent immigrants, the concentration was
highest for chefs and cooks (5.7%) and butchers and bakers (5.0%), but also for
masonry and plastering trades (4.9%) and other construction trades (4.7%). One
consistent observation for all immigrants is the relatively low representation
in the crane operators, drillers and blasters and heavy equipment operators
occupations. These variations in representation may be a function of a number
of factors such as immigrant source country and skill/education profile, ease of
occupational entry and/or economic conditions at time of landing.
Examining labour force participation rates from the 2010 Labour Force Survey
shows that participation for the immigrant population tends to be slightly lower
than for the Canadian- born population. For the core working age population
(ages 25 to 54), the gap between the Canadian-born and immigrant population
was 5.3 percentage points.
Table 10: Labour force participation rates (percent), British Columbia: 2010
Age Total Canadian-born All Immigrants
15 to 64 years 76.6 78.3 74.0
15 to 24 years 63.3 66.5 53.1
25 to 54 years 85.0 87.0 81.7
Source: 2010 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada
According to the 2006 Census, 9.3 percent of all immigrants (15 years and older)
earned an apprenticeship or trades certificate. Within the immigrant population
there are considerable differences in the proportion holding a trade certificate. For
example, established immigrants had the highest proportion of the population
with a trade certificate at 12.5 percent. This is 7.0 percentage points higher than
the recent immigrant population and 8.4 percentage points greater than very
recent immigrants where the rate was 4.1 percent of the population.
Encouraging a greater representation of very recent immigrants to trades in
general, and certain trades occupations specifically, may provide an incremental
source of labour supply, while also addressing the need for training and economic
integration of new arrivals.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 10 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Provincial Outlook
In 2010, trades occupation employment, at just over 251,000, made up 11.1 Annual Average
2010 2020
% Change
percent of provincial employment. By 2020, it is projected that 282,400 workers
will be employed in trades occupations (representing 10.9 percent of the total Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics
21,210 23,610 1.1
(Except Motor vehicle)
employment). It is projected that the trades occupations employment growth
Automotive Service Technicians 25,110 28,710 1.3
will average 1.2 percent over the next 10 years. By comparison, total provincial
Other Mechanics 3,940 4,440 1.2
occupation growth will average 1.4 percent over the same projection period
(0.2 percentage points more than trades occupations). It should be noted that a Crane Operators, Drillers and Blasters 2,170 2,380 0.9
large part of this growth occurs in the mid-term (5 years) projection, and begins Heavy Equipment Operators 13,700 15,270 1.1
to slow down in the long-term forecast. This occurs because employment is Total trades 251,340 282,390 1.2
driven by variables such as confirmed construction projects, and variables of Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
this nature can change in the long-term, driving projected employment up or
The projected fastest growing trades occupations are technical operations in
down, as the number of projects increases or decreases. So while employment
personal services (1.6%); chefs and cooks (1.6%), machinists and related occupa-
is growing on average over the horizon, the demand for workers increases faster
tions (1.3%) and automotive services technicians (1.3%). Conversely, the slowest
than the rate at which they are employed, leading to a tight labour market
growth is projected to be seen in crane operators, drillers and blasters (0.9%);
condition (a deficit in workers supplied compared to those workers demanded)
masonry and plastering trades (0.9%) and carpenters and cabinetmakers (0.9%).
in the second half of the projection.
To a large extent, demand for occupations in the trades/transport (NOC7)
Table 11: Trade Occupations Employment: 2010 and 2020 category22 is driven by the level of construction activity in the economy. Over
Annual Average the last 10 years, construction industry GDP has expanded at an average annual
2010 2020
% Change rate of 5.6 percent, while the economy grew at a rate of 2.4 percent.23 Over
All Occupations 2,256,500 2,589,100 1.4 the same period, construction industry employment grew at an annual rate
Chefs and Cooks 35,870 41,990 1.6 of 5.4 percent.24 Over the next 10 years, (2010 to 2020) trades/transport (NOC7)
Butchers and Bakers 9,020 10,050 1.1 occupation employment is projected to expand at an annual average rate of 1.1
Technical Occupations in Personal Services 16,140 18,850 1.6
percent. Historically (2000-2010), those NOC7 occupations have had an average
annual growth rate of 1.8 percent.25
Machinists and Related Occupations 4,130 4,700 1.3
Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations 20,690 23,090 1.1 Demand for sales and service trade occupations (NOC6), along with automotive
Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gasfitters 12,030 13,330 1.0 service technicians and other mechanics, is more generally influenced by overall
Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades 16,570 18,560 1.1 demographic growth in the province (a larger population results in more clients
Carpenters and Cabinetmakers 35,280 38,440 0.9 for these trades). Over the next 10 years – 2010 to 2020 – these occupations are
Masonry and Plastering Trades 12,470 13,670 0.9 22 Excluding automotive service technicians and other mechanics.
Other Construction Trades 23,020 25,310 1.0 23 Statistics Canada (CANSIM tables 379-0025 and 379-0026), gross domestic product chained (2002).
24 Labour Force Survey 2010, table-008.
25 Labour Force Survey 2010, table-010.
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 11 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
expected to see annual average employment growth of 1.3 percent according Overall, in British Columbia, annual average growth in total occupational
to the BC Labour Market Scenario Model. This growth mirrors the expected demand28 will reach 1.4 percent, adding approximately 1.03 million job openings
population increase in B.C. (1.3 percent).26 over the outlook period (2010 to 2020). In comparison, the outlook for trades
Economic and demographic growth in the province will result in higher demand occupations will see an average 1.2 percent growth annually, which will generate
for trades occupations between 2010 and 2020. The other occupational demand over 104,600 job openings by 2020.
driver over this period will be replacement demand, demand necessary to Over the projection period (2010 to 2020), annual average trades occupation labour
compensate for exits due to retirements and deaths. Replacement demand demand growth (1.2%) will outstrip labour supply growth (0.9%). As illustrated
is driven by the aging of the population. In 1980 the median age of the B.C. in figure 4, the excess supply (over demand) position for trades occupations in
population was 30.4 years. By 2010, it jumped to 40.8 years and, in 2020, it is B.C. will go from 4,990 to -2,340 in 2020, indicating more demand than can be
expected to reach 42.3 years. By the end of BC Stats’ population projection period met by the supply.
(2036), the median age for B.C. will reach 45.4 years.27
Figure 4: Excess supply outlook (supply less demand), British Columbia:
Figure 3: Expected demand for trades occupations, British Columbia: 2010 to 2020
2010 to 2020 5000
Chefs and cooks
4000
Butchers and bakers
Technical occupations in personal service
3000
Machinists and related occupations
Electrical trades and telecommunication
2000
Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters NOC6 NOC7
Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades
1000
Carpenters and cabinetmakers
Masonry and plastering trades
0
Other construction trades
Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics…
-1000
Other mechanics
Automotive service technicians
Replacement Expansion -2000
Crane operators, drillers and blasters
Heavy equipment operators
-3000
0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
26 BC Stats’ PEOPLE 35 population projection – online at: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca. 28 Occupational demand is comprised of the number of expected employed workers plus the number of workers
27 Ibid. that are normally unemployed: Demand = employment/(1-normal unemployment rate).
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 12 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Supply and demand for all the outlook trades will see supply equal to demand by as early as 2013 for some occupations. Heavy equipment operators are expected to be relatively balanced, but having a shortage by as much as 90 workers in 2020. Chefs and cooks are expected to have the largest deficit of workers by 2020, with as many as 400 workers being required to fill the unmet demand. On the other hand, crane operators, drillers and blasters are the closest to having supply and demand equivalence for the labour market, with demand exceeding supply by 20 workers in 2020. By the end of the outlook period, excess trades demand in B.C. will account for less than 0.8 percent of the trades labour force – essentially, as an occupational group, it will be in balance based on current economic and construction forecasts. British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 13 ]
INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Regional Outlook
Overwhelmingly, most trades employment is concentrated in the Mainland/ Figure 5: Regional distribution of trades and all occupation employment
Southwest region of the province: over half (55.3%) of the 251,340 trades occupa- (percent of total): 2010
tion employment in 2010 was concentrated in Mainland/Southwest. The labour
market outlook predicts that this distribution will increase slightly (to 57.4%) Mainland/Southwest
over the next ten years (see table 12).
Vancouver Island/Coast
The annual average growth in trades occupation employment will be the
highest in North Coast and Nechako (2.7%), Northeast (1.8%) and Mainland/ Thompson-Okanagan
Southwest (1.6%). The regions with the lowest annual average growth rates will
be Cariboo (0.03%), Vancouver Island/Coast (0.3%), Thompson-Okanagan (0.8%) Kootenay
and Kootenay (0.8%). B.C. as a whole is projected to have an annual average
growth rate of 1.2 percent for trades occupations. Cariboo All occupations
Regional trades employment growth will be slower than total occupational Northeast Trade occupations
growth in all but three regions. Mainland/Southwest and Northeast will have
the same average annual growth rate for both the total occupational and trades North Coast & Nechako
employment, and North Coast and Nechako will have a lower total occupational
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
employment average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent. Cariboo (0.6%), Kootenay
(1.1%), Thompson-Okanagan (1.1%) and Vancouver Island/Coast (0.8%) will all Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
have higher total occupational average annual growth rates relative to the
trades occupations. Examining the regional distribution of trades occupations relative to all occupa-
tions (figure 5) shows that, to a large extent, the distributions are similar, but
there are two notable exceptions: The representation of trades occupations in
Mainland/Southwest is 6.2 percentage points lower than for all occupations
(61.5%), while for all other regions trades representation is higher. In Thompson-
Okanagan, the representation for all occupations is 2.5 percentage points less
than the region’s trades occupations representation.
While trades employment is mostly concentrated in Mainland/Southwest, trades
only account for 10.0 percent of total employment, below the provincial share
of 11.1 percent in 2010. Trades employment accounts for the greatest share of
total employment (16.3%) in the Northeast, followed closely by Kootenay (15.6%).
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 14 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Between 2010 and 2020, despite the differential growth across regions, in B.C., with the remaining four regions making up the remainder. Cariboo, North
the relative share of trades employment is expected to decrease slightly (10.9% Coast and Nechako and Northeast will have equal shares of 3 percent and the
in 2020). Kootenay region will have just under a 2 percent share.
Table 12: Trades Employment 2010 and 2020 In relative terms, demand for trades will be more or less significant by region. In
North Coast and Nechako nearly one-in-five workers in the demand outlook from
Trades All Occupations Percent Trades
2010-2020 are projected to be in the trades occupations. Conversely, one-in-ten
2010 workers in the demand outlooks of the Mainland/Southwest and Vancouver
Vancouver Island/Coast 44,940 383,800 11.7 Island/Coast will be workers in the trades occupations.
Mainland/Southwest 139,050 1,388,400 10.0
Thompson-Okanagan 34,820 257,200 13.5
Table 13: Regional trade occupations demand outlook: 2010 to 2020
Kootenay 10,810 69,400 15.6 Replacement Expansion Total
Cariboo 10,760 80,300 13.4 British Columbia 70,760 33,880 104,640
North Coast and Nechako 4,920 40,400 12.2 Vancouver Island/Coast 13,030 1,450 14,480
Northeast 6,020 37,000 16.3 Mainland/Southwest 37,640 25,790 63,430
British Columbia 251,340 2,256,500 11.1 Thompson-Okanagan 9,580 3,140 12,720
2020 Kootenay 3,380 880 4,260
Vancouver Island/Coast 46,320 416,730 11.1 Cariboo 3,350 -140 3,210
Mainland/Southwest 162,220 1,632,210 9.9 North Coast and Nechako 2,060 1,560 3,620
Thompson-Okanagan 37,790 286,660 13.2 Northeast 1,710 1,200 2,910
Kootenay 11,700 77,770 15.0 Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Total is replacement plus expansion.)
Cariboo 10,760 85,300 12.7
North Coast and Nechako 6,400 46,360 13.8
When we consider the source of demand, we see that replacement demand is a
significant driving factor: the demand to replace retired trades workers accounts
Northeast 7,170 44,070 16.3
for over half of the total trades demand in every B.C. development region. The
British Columbia 282,390 2,589,100 10.9
share of replacement demand out of the total demand for trade occupations
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Regions may not sum to B.C. total due to rounding. Percent Trades
is based on rounded figures [trades/all occupations.]) ranges from a high of 100% in Cariboo to a low of 57% in the North Coast and
Nechako region.
The economic and demographic drivers of occupational expansion demand,
along with the need to replace workers exiting trades (through retirement or
death), will result in considerable demand for skilled trades people.
Labour demand for trades occupations over the outlook period will be concen-
trated in Mainland/Southwest (61%), with this region needing over 63,000 new
trades workers over the next 10 years. Together, Vancouver Island/Coast (14%)
and Thompson-Okanagan (12%) will account for one quarter of total demand,
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 15 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Figure 6: Regional shares in trades labour demand: 2010 to 2020 At the provincial level, expansion demand will account for almost a third
(32.4%) of total demand. At the regional level, there is some notable variation
Rest of Province Vancouver Island/Coast
13.4% in distribution. Cariboo will see a slight decrease in expansion demand (-4.4%),
Thompson-Okanagan 13.8% while Northeast (41.3%) will see the greatest.
12.2%
Specific occupational demand will also vary considerably by region (see table
14). In Cariboo, nearly a quarter (23.1%) of the regional demand will be for
machinery and transportation equipment mechanics, while in Northeast it
is heavy equipment operators (22.9%) that account for the most significant
Mainland/Southwest demand share. In Vancouver Island/Coast, chefs and cooks (15.1%) will account
60.6% for the largest occupational share of the trades labour demand from 2010-2020.
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
Table 14: Trades labour demand, share of total trades (percent): 2010 to 2020
Vancouver Island/ Thompson- North Coast
Mainland/ Southwest Kootenay Cariboo Northeast
Coast Okanagan and Nechako
Chefs and cooks 15.1 14.9 10.3 6.6 16.9 9.4 8.6
Butchers and bakers 3.6 3.4 2.4 3.3 1.9 1.9 1.7
Technical occupations in personal service 9.0 7.1 5.7 1.9 8.4 2.8 1.7
Machinists and related occupations 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.9 1.6 0.6 1.0
Electrical trades and telecommunication 9.3 9.8 9.5 11.5 6.6 10.2 9.6
Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 4.2 4.9 4.3 5.2 2.8 5.0 6.5
Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 4.8 7.0 6.2 6.1 7.2 6.1 6.8
Carpenters and cabinetmakers 13.2 12.5 13.7 14.4 2.8 15.0 11.3
Masonry and plastering trades 3.5 4.8 5.1 4.0 0.0 2.2 2.1
Other construction trades 7.0 9.1 7.5 4.9 0.6 5.8 5.8
Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics 8.8 7.7 11.8 15.1 23.1 15.8 14.4
Automotive service technicians 11.4 10.8 10.3 6.4 15.0 7.5 6.8
Other mechanics 2.7 1.7 1.7 0.9 2.5 1.9 0.3
Crane operators, drillers and blasters 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.6 0.6 1.4 0.3
Heavy equipment operators 5.2 3.4 9.7 17.2 10.0 14.4 22.9
Total Trades 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 16 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
When we compare regional labour demand growth to labour supply growth Figure 7: Regional supply/demand annual average growth (percent):
over the outlook period, what becomes apparent is that in every region demand 2010 to 2020
growth outstrips supply growth, except for Cariboo where both are projected
to shrink. For the North Coast and Nechako, Northeast, Kootenay and Mainland/ Vancouver Island/Coast
Southwest regions, demand is expected to outstrip supply by 0.3 percentage
points. For Vancouver Island/Coast, demand is only expected to outstrip supply Thompson-Okanagan
by 0.1 percentage points.
Northeast
North Coast & Nechako
Mainland/Southwest
Kootenay
Demand
Cariboo Supply
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 17 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Table 15 shows that labour supply is expected to shrink for some occupations masonry and plastering trades, and other construction trades. Little or no growth
in some regions. For example, in Vancouver Island/Coast, the labour supply is expected in a variety of occupations across the regions, including but not
is forecast to shrink for plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters, carpenters and limited to machinists and related occupations in Cariboo, electrical trades and
cabinetmakers, crane operators, drillers and blasters, heavy equipment operators, telecommunication in Vancouver Island/Coast and other mechanics in Northeast.
Table 15: Trades labour supply, annual average growth (percent): 2010 to 2020
Vancouver Thompson- North Coast
Mainland/ Southwest Kootenay Cariboo Northeast
Island/ Coast Okanagan and Nechako
Chefs and cooks 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 1.9 1.6 2.4
Butchers and bakers 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.3
Technical occupations in personal service 1.7 1.3 0.8 -0.4 1.8 2.3 0.1
Machinists and related occupations 0.3 1.3 0.4 -0.3 0.3 1.4 1.0
Electrical trades and telecommunication 0.0 1.3 0.6 0.5 -1.6 2.0 1.7
Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters -0.3 1.2 0.4 0.4 -1.8 2.8 2.0
Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.2 -0.5 1.8 1.0
Carpenters and cabinetmakers -0.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 -2.3 3.9 1.7
Masonry and plastering trades -0.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 -2.9 4.3 1.7
Other construction trades -0.5 1.2 0.4 0.4 -2.2 4.0 1.5
Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 1.2
Automotive service technicians 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.4
Other mechanics 0.9 1.2 0.6 -0.1 0.1 1.5 0.2
Crane operators, drillers and blasters -0.3 1.2 0.4 0.5 -1.6 1.6 2.1
Heavy equipment operators -0.2 1.2 0.5 0.7 -0.7 2.8 2.0
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 18 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D Summary The trades employment outlook in B.C. is relatively strong, although trades demand for the trades is expected to outpace the labour supply in 2016, and as demand will grow at a slightly lower rate than the provincial all occupation early as 2013 for some occupations, there is an increasing need to educate and average over the forecast period. According to 2010 Labour Force Survey, the train labour force entrants, and enable skilled workers, including newcomers, vast majority (92.2%) of those employed as trades, transport and equipment to obtain trades credentials through assessments that fairly and objectively operators were employed full-time. All the trade occupations posted rates of evaluate their skills and experience. full-time employment above the provincial average. This is exemplified by the One potential source of relatively untapped supply is the female population. APPSO survey, which reported 96 percent of employed respondents were Female representation in trades/transport (NOC7) occupations has been relatively working full-time. flat over the last decade, accounting for only 3.1 percent of the total in 2006. An There still is underrepresentation of female workers in the trades for some increase in female representation would certainly bolster the supply side for occupations, but there have been vast improvements in female representation trades occupations in British Columbia. Another source of potential supply is from the 1996 Census to the 2006 Census. the Aboriginal population. While Aboriginal peoples have higher representation Aboriginal people are still currently underrepresented in some occupations such for many trades occupations, attracting them into the trades continues to be as machinists, metal forming, shaping and erecting occupations but tend to be an important issue. Where success can be achieved is in increasing their overall fairly represented in the sales and service occupations. According to the 2006 labour market participation, which should positively impact supply. Finally, Census, 12.5 percent of Aboriginal people (15 years or age and over) earned an attracting new immigrants into trades occupations has the benefit of potentially apprenticeship or trades certificate. This is a greater proportion than the non- strengthening labour supply, while at the same time facilitating the training and Aboriginal population where just 10.9 percent of the population held a trades economic integration of new arrivals. certificate. This trend is expected to continue as the proportion of Aboriginal peoples in trades training programs has grown significantly since 2006. The 2006 Census results indicated that overall immigrant representation in trades was slightly below general occupational participation, but with some consider- able differences. Established immigrants in trades mirrored overall occupational participation, but this is not true for very recent and recent immigrants. The provincial trades outlook is positive, as employment in all of the trade occupations is expected to enjoy positive average yearly growth in employment up to 2020, with the strongest growth expected from chefs and cooks. The trades as a whole are expecting an average yearly employment growth of 1.2 percent. Relative to expansion demand, replacement demand makes up the majority of the expected demand for the trades occupations, signalling that the economy is expected to remain strong as the job openings are derived from labour market needs and vacancies due to retiring older workers. As labour British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 19 ]
INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Appendix A: Trades Occupations, 4-Digit Composition
Table A1: 4-digit NOC composition of selected trades occupations
724–Electrical Trades and Telecommunication Occupations
6–Sales and Service Occupations
7241–Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System)
62–Skilled Sales and Service Occupations
7242–Industrial Electricians
624–Chefs and Cooks
7243–Power System Electricians
6241–Chefs
7244–Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers
6242–Cooks
7245–Telecommunications Line and Cable Workers
625–Butchers and Bakers 7246–Telecommunications Installation and Repair Workers
6251–Butchers, Meat Cutters and Fishmongers–Retail and Wholesale 7247–Cable Television Service and Maintenance Technicians
6252–Bakers
725–Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gas Fitters
627–Technical Occupations in Personal Service 7251–Plumbers
6271–Hairstylists and Barbers 7252–Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers
6272–Funeral Directors and Embalmers 7253–Gas Fitters
7–Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations 726–Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades
72/73–Trades and Skilled Transport and Equipment Operators 7261–Sheet Metal Workers
721–Contractors and Supervisors, Trades and Related Workers 7262–Boilermakers
7211–Supervisors, Machinists and Related Occupations 7263–Structural Metal and Platework Fabricators and Fitters
7212–Contractors and Supervisors, Electrical Trades and Telecommunications Occupations 7264–Ironworkers
7213–Contractors and Supervisors, Pipefitting Trades 7265–Welders and Related Machine Operators
7214–Contractors and Supervisors, Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades 7266–Blacksmiths and Die Setters
7215–Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trades 727–Carpenters and Cabinetmakers
7216–Contractors and Supervisors, Mechanic Trades 7271–Carpenters
7217–Contractors and Supervisors, Heavy Construction Equipment Crews 7272–Cabinetmakers
7218–Supervisors, Printing and Related Occupations
728–Masonry and Plastering Trades
7219–Contractors and Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers and Servicers
7281–Bricklayers
722–Supervisors, Railway and Motor Transportation Occupations 7282–Concrete Finishers
7221–Supervisors, Railway Transport Operations 7283–Tilesetters
7222–Supervisors, Motor Transport and Other Ground Transit Operators 7284–Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers
723–Machinists and Related Occupations 729–Other Construction Trades
7231–Machinists and Machining and Tooling Inspectors 7291–Roofers and Shinglers
7232–Tool and Die Makers 7292–Glaziers
7293–Insulators
7294–Painters and Decorators
7295–Floor Covering Installers
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 20 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
731–Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics (Except Motor Vehicle)
7311–Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics (Except Textile)
7312–Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics
7313–Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanics
7314–Railway Carmen/women
7315–Aircraft Mechanics and Aircraft Inspectors
7316–Machine Fitters
7317–Textile Machinery Mechanics and Repairers
7318–Elevator Constructors and Mechanics
732–Automotive Service Technicians
7321–Automotive Service Technicians, Truck and Bus Mechanics and Mechanical Repairers
7322–Motor Vehicle Body Repairers
733–Other Mechanics
7331–Oil and Solid Fuel Heating Mechanics
7332–Electric Appliance Servicers and Repairers
7333–Electrical Mechanics
7334–Motorcycle and Other Related Mechanics
7335–Other Small Engine and Equipment Mechanics
737–Crane Operators, Drillers and Blasters
7371–Crane Operators
7372–Drillers and Blasters–Surface Mining, Quarrying and Construction
7373–Water Well Drillers
74–Intermediate Occupations in Transport, Equipment Operation, Installation and Maintenance
742–Heavy Equipment Operators
7421–Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane)
7422–Public Works Maintenance Equipment Operators
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 21 ]INTRODUCTION TRADE OCCUPATIONS CONTEXT PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY APPENDICES: A-D
Appendix B: Regional Demand Outlook Tables, 2010 to 2020
Table B1: Occupation demand outlook – British Columbia Table B2: Occupation demand outlook – Vancouver Island/Coast
Replacement Expansion Total Replacement Expansion Total
Chefs and cooks 7,650 6,720 14,370 Chefs and cooks 1,350 830 2,180
Butchers and bakers 2,210 1,100 3,320 Butchers and bakers 410 110 520
Technical occupations in personal service 4,100 2,920 7,020 Technical occupations in personal service 700 600 1,300
Machinists and related occupations 1,300 610 1,910 Machinists and related occupations 180 20 200
Electrical trades and telecommunication 7,440 2,660 10,100 Electrical trades and telecommunication 1,340 10 1,350
Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 3,500 1,450 4,950 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 670 -60 610
Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 4,620 2,200 6,810 Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 620 70 690
Carpenters and cabinetmakers 9,680 3,500 13,180 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 2,400 -490 1,910
Masonry and plastering trades 3,150 1,340 4,490 Masonry and plastering trades 660 -160 500
Other construction trades 5,770 2,560 8,330 Other construction trades 1,300 -280 1,020
Machinery and transportation equipment Machinery and transportation equipment
7,480 2,540 10,020 1,120 150 1,270
mechanics (except motor vehicle) mechanics (except motor vehicle)
Automotive service technicians 7,150 3,850 11,000 Automotive service technicians 1,050 590 1,640
Other mechanics 1,360 540 1,900 Other mechanics 290 100 390
Crane operators, drillers and blasters 650 220 870 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 140 -10 130
Heavy equipment operators 4,690 1,670 6,360 Heavy equipment operators 800 -40 760
Trades Occupations 70,750 33,890 104,640 Trades Occupations 13,030 1,440 14,470
Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Total is based on replacement plus expansion. The total for the Source: BC Labour Market Scenario Model (Note: Total is based on replacement plus expansion. The total for the
Trades Occupations is based on rounded projections.) Trades Occupations is based on rounded projections.)
British Columbia Trade Occupations Outlook: 2010-2020 [ 22 ]You can also read
