Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23

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Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
Transport for London
Business Plan
2018/19 to 2022/23
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
About Transport for London (TfL)
                                                                                              Contents
Part of the Greater London Authority          We are moving ahead with many of
family led by Mayor of London Sadiq           London’s most significant infrastructure
Khan, we are the integrated transport         projects, using transport to unlock growth.
authority responsible for delivering the      We are working with partners on major
Mayor’s aims for transport.                   projects like Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo
                                              line extension that will deliver the new        4    Mayor’s introduction            46   Transformation programme
We have a key role in shaping what            homes and jobs London and the UK need.
life is like in London, helping to realise    We are in the final phases of completing
the Mayor’s vision for a ‘City for All        the Elizabeth line which, when it opens, will   6    Commissioner’s foreword         50   Diversity and inclusion
Londoners’. We are committed to               add 10 per cent to London’s rail capacity.
creating a fairer, greener, healthier and
more prosperous city. The Mayor’s             Supporting the delivery of high-density,        10   Delivering the Mayor’s          52   Buses
Transport Strategy sets a target for 80       mixed-use developments that are                      Transport Strategy
per cent of all journeys to be made on        planned around active and sustainable
foot, by cycle or using public transport      travel will ensure that London’s growth                                              60   Streets
by 2041. To make this a reality, we           is good growth. We also use our own             12   The focus of this plan
prioritise health and the quality of          land to provide thousands of new
people’s experience in everything we do.      affordable homes and our own supply                                                  70   Rail
                                              chain creates tens of thousands of jobs         18   Healthy Streets across London
We manage the city’s red route strategic      and apprenticeships across the country.
roads and, through collaboration with                                                                                              76   Underground
the London boroughs, can help shape           We are committed to being an employer           20   What we will deliver
the character of all London’s streets.        that is fully representative of the
These are the places where Londoners          community we serve, where everyone                                                   84   Elizabeth line
travel, work, shop and socialise.             can realise their potential. Our aim is to      28   Business at a glance
Making them places for people to walk,        be a fully inclusive employer, valuing and
cycle and spend time will reduce car          celebrating the diversity of our workforce                                           88   Other operations
dependency and improve air quality,           to improve services for all Londoners.          30   Financial summary
revitalise town centres, boost businesses
and connect communities.                      We are constantly working to improve                                                 94   Commercial Development
                                              the city for everyone. This means freezing      36   Financial trends
We run most of London’s public                fares so everyone can afford to use public
transport services, including the             transport, using data and technology to                                              98   Appendices
London Underground, London Buses,             make services intuitive and easy to use,        40   Key milestones of the
the Docklands Light Railway, London           and doing all we can to make streets and             Investment programme
Overground, TfL Rail, London Trams,           transport services accessible to all. We
London River Services, London Dial-a-         reinvest every penny of our income to
Ride, Victoria Coach Station, Santander       continually improve transport networks          42   Borrowing
Cycles and the Emirates Air Line. The         for the people who use them every day.
quality and accessibility of these services
is fundamental to Londoners’ quality          None of this would be possible without          44   Operational trends
of life. By improving and expanding           the support of boroughs, communities
public transport, we can make people’s        and other partners who we work with
lives easier and increase the appeal of       to improve our services. We all need
sustainable travel over private car use.      to pull together to deliver the Mayor’s
                                              Transport Strategy; by doing so we can
                                              create a better city as London grows.

                                                                                                                                         Transport for London Business Plan    3
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
Mayor’s introduction
My TfL Business Plan sets out how I will continue to make
commuting in London and travelling around our city more
affordable, while investing record amounts in creating a
fairer, greener, healthier and more prosperous London.

My first TfL Business Plan in 2016 set out                                                    is also only marginally down compared         national economy in the 2030s. Crossrail
how I start delivering the commitments                                                        to last year despite the lower economic       2 will create hundreds of thousands
in my manifesto. I have already frozen                                                        growth. Bus passenger numbers outside         of homes and jobs across the South
TfL fares, which, on average, will put                                                        London have also seen sharp falls,            East, generate employment in London
£200 back in Londoners’ pockets by                                                            whereas in London they have dipped            throughout the national supply chain. It
2020. I have also protected TfL’s travel                                                      much less and then stabilised as the          will improve air quality by taking 35,000
concessions, which provide more than                                                          benefits of more affordable and reliable      car trips off the roads every day, at the
£300m of free or discounted travel every                                                      journeys have been felt.                      same time as reducing crowding on Tube
year to children, people over 60, and                                                                                                       and rail services by 20 to 30 per cent.
those on income support. I brought in                                                         When I became Mayor, I told TfL to find
the Hopper fare, got Night Tube services                                                      the savings I knew were there and to use      Without it, many commuter services
up and running, announced all-night                                                           them to provide a better, more affordable     around London and the wider South
services on the London Overground,                                                            and more accessible transport network         East would grind to a halt, and our work
and implemented the T-Charge to start                                                         for all Londoners. As a result, in 2016/17,   to reduce car dependency and improve
cleaning up London’s toxic air.                                                               TfL reduced its year-on-year operating        quality of life for millions of people would
                                                form of central government subsidy, the       costs for the first time in its history.      be under threat. The Government must
Since then, I have consulted on my draft        Government has taken £2.8bn away from         This plan sets out the continuation           make a positive decision quickly on the
Transport Strategy, which sets out the          TfL’s operational funding. In this context,   of that work and TfL’s trajectory to          funding proposals I have put forward for
role transport will play in the future of       we are making important advances in how       achieving financial sustainability by 2021,   the scheme (including for how London
London. To make the most of our public          to run efficient, affordable and accessible   reflecting the removal of all Government      will meet 50 per cent of the costs during
spaces and improve Londoners’ quality           transport services, to improve our city.      operating grant.                              construction), to allow TfL to press ahead
of life, I am aiming for 80 per cent of trips                                                                                               with preparing a Hybrid Bill for submission
in London to be made on foot, by cycle          Against a backdrop of falling passenger       Efficient and affordable transport is         to Parliament in 2020.
or by public transport by 2041 – a much         numbers on National Rail services in          vital to our national success. We must
larger proportion than today’s level of         London, ridership on TfL services has         work with authorities throughout the          Transport is one of the most important
around 65 per cent.                             been more resilient, with my TfL fares        UK to invest in transport infrastructure      features of a world city like London,
                                                freeze and Hopper fare clearly helping        to drive growth and productivity across       shaping places and enabling people to live
To make this vision a reality, every decision   Londoners afford to travel. The latest        the country.                                  active, healthy and fulfilling lives. With
TfL makes must support this objective,          passenger figures show the benefit of                                                       this Business Plan, I will help deliver my
from investment to improve streets              my fares freeze in encouraging more           In London, after years of planning and        vision for a fairer, greener, healthier and
and public transport networks to major          people to use public transport. London        construction, the Elizabeth line will open    more prosperous city.
new transport projects that will support        Overground, where I have frozen fares,        fully in 2019, adding an estimated £42bn
London’s growth. This is a big change for       was the only one of the four main train       to the UK economy, and 10 per cent to
TfL, and the future health and prosperity       operators within London and the South         London’s rail capacity.
of the city and its residents depend upon it.   East to see passenger numbers rise.
                                                Passengers on Govia Thameslink Railway,       But we cannot afford to stop there. As
Our spending decisions become even              South West Trains and Southeastern all        the National Infrastructure Commission
more important in today’s economic              fell by more than five cent in April to       has said, we must press ahead now with        Sadiq Khan
climate. While all other major transport        June 2017-18, compared to the previous        plans for Crossrail 2, so that the new        Mayor of London
operators in the world receive some             year, as their fares rose. Tube ridership     railway can be ready to support the

4    Mayor’s introduction                                                                                                                         Transport for London Business Plan   5
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
Commissioner’s foreword
The Mayor’s draft Transport Strategy describes his
ambition for how people will move around the city in 2041.

By 2041, 80 per cent of journeys will be                                                        that is considering all of our activities to   choices. From next year, we will be
made by walking, cycling and public                                                             make sure we are providing the safest          addressing the critical needs of our road
transport compared with around 65 per                                                           and most efficient transport service for       network, including congestion, road
cent today. Travel will be healthier,                                                           Londoners. We have already streamlined         danger, maintenance and air quality,
easier and more affordable for everyone                                                         many of our processes and removed              without a Government grant. Meanwhile,
in London.                                                                                      management layers, duplication and             the £500m raised every year from
                                                                                                bureaucracy. This work will be continuous.     Londoners paying Vehicle Excise Duty
Dozens of new, mixed-use property                                                                                                              will be collected by central Government
developments on TfL land will offer                                                             We would not have been able to achieve         and invested in roads outside the Capital.
commercial, retail and leisure space, while                                                     these savings, or have confidence in our
thousands of affordable homes will help to                                                      plans for further efficiencies, without        Given the end of Government funding
create jobs and support economic growth.                                                        the support of our partners, suppliers         of the road network, our Business
                                                                                                and our people. In particular, we are          Plan looks at ways to safely reduce the
With the Mayor’s strategy to guide us, now                                                      committed to working constructively            expenditure on our roads maintenance
is the right time to revise our Business Plan.                                                  with trade unions to find better ways for      programme in the short term while we
We have combined investment in London’s          Mayor’s draft Transport Strategy. This         us all to work together for London.            identify a new, long-term funding stream
transport network with the Healthy               will include significant investment in                                                        to support that important work.
Streets Approach to present a more               London Underground on the completion           We will also raise more income than ever
holistic plan for the city than ever before.     of the modernisation of the Circle,            from our commercial activities. We have        We all need to work together to deliver
This document sets out our journey               District, Hammersmith & City, and              worked closely with the Mayor on a plan        this plan, and a diverse team is a stronger
towards delivering the Mayor’s vision.           Metropolitan lines, increasing step-free       to generate significant revenues from          one. I am committed to ensuring that TfL
                                                 access at stations and the delivery of the     property development to reinvest in the        is representative of the city we serve. We
Next year, we will become one of the             Healthy Streets portfolio to improve the       transport network, while at the same           are beginning to make progress but there
only major cities in the world to operate        health and quality of life for Londoners,      time delivering 50 per cent affordable         is a long road ahead of us.
a public transport network without               and clean up the Capital’s air. Safety will    homes across our portfolio.
Government subsidy to cover our day-             always remain our top priority, with our                                                      Through this plan, we will deliver the
to-day running costs. This means that the        resources focused on making sure we            We will also grow our advertising              Mayor’s Transport Strategy and a net
£700m, on average, we had been receiving         operate a safe network for everyone.           revenue and we have taken the first steps      operating surplus by 2021/22. With this
from the Government per year will                                                               towards establishing a consulting arm of       strong financial foundation, and more
disappear completely by 2018/19.                 Against that background, last year’s           TfL, which will offer our expertise around     efficient operations, we will encourage
                                                 Business Plan set out a path to financial      the world.                                     the healthy growth of London and
This comes at a crucial time for the UK          sustainability and we have already begun                                                      underpin its reputation as a resilient and
as we face the challenge of exiting the          to deliver that successfully. Last year, for   The strength of these income streams           attractive world city.
EU and lower economic growth than                the first time in our history, we reduced      and our successful cost savings
previously forecast, and we must work            our year-on-year operating costs by £153m.     programme mean that we can run an
with our partners across the country to          This plan continues that trajectory by         affordable, accessible network and invest
support the national economy.                    creating a surplus over the next five years.   in delivering the Mayor’s vision.
                                                                                                                                               Mike Brown MVO
TfL fares will stay frozen until 2020. We        At the heart of these savings is a cost        As is the case with all public services, we    Commissioner
will invest record amounts to deliver the        reduction and modernisation programme          also, of course, have to make difficult        Transport for London

6    Commissioner’s foreword                                                                                                                         Transport for London Business Plan     7
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
Our Business Plan describes how, over the next
five years, we will manage our resources to
deliver the Mayor’s commitments. It includes:

Affordable transport                           Making transport more accessible               Safer London                               Housing and regeneration
                                                                                                                                         Developing sites for
         Keep all TfL fares

         frozen
                                               More
                                               than   40%                                                 More
                                                                                                     Vision
                                                                                                                                         10,000
                              until 2020       of Tube stations
                                               step-free by 2021/22
                                                                                                     Zero
                                                                                                     target for
                                                                                                                    roads targeted
                                                                                                                    in Safer Junctions
                                                                                                                                         homes on TfL land
                                                                                                                                         (50 per cent affordable)
Extend the                                                                                           road safety    programme

Hopper fare                                    Improve                                                                                   Lobby for
                                                                                                                                         powers
                                                                                                                                                         Crossrail
                                                                                                                                                         development

         Protect
                                               bus stop
                                               and taxi rank                 100%             Improved                                   to extend
                                                                                                                                         Bakerloo                   Silvertown
         all fares concessions
                                               accessibility                 step-free
                                                                             Elizabeth line
                                                                                                      safety standards
                                                                                                      for buses in London                line                       tunnel
Public transport, walking and cycling          Improving air quality                          Harnessing technology                      Raising commercial revenue

Better,                                        ULEZ
                                                                         Purchase only
                                                                         green
                                                                                                     Concession products
                                                                                                                                         More than
more reliable                                                                                        available through
                                                                                                                                         £80m
bus journeys
                    Open
                                               Ultra Low Emission
                                               Zone launches
                                                                              double-
                                                                              decker buses
                                                                                                ticketing app                            investment to upgrade
                                                                                                                                         our advertising estate
                              Elizabeth line                                  from 2018

                                               New                                            More
Extra               More                       licensing requirements
                                               for zero emission
                                                                                              automatic
                                                                                              refunds for          Oyster
                                                                                                                                                                    Build
capacity
on four
Tube lines
                    cycling and
                    walking
                                               capable taxis                                  maximum
                                                                                              fares   weekly                capping
                                                                                                                                                                    a commercial
                                                                                                                                                                    consulting business

Creating attractive and iconic places          Helping business                               Community/borough partnerships             Diversity and inclusion

        Transform
         Oxford Street for pedestrians
                                               More
                                               integrated deliveries
                                                                                              Significant levels of borough investment

                                                                                              maintained
                                                                                                                                         A more
                                                                                                                                         representative
                                                                                                                                                  workforce and senior management

Improve  London’s streets
                                                                Retiming
                                                                deliveries
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
Delivering the Mayor’s
Transport Strategy
Our aim is that, by 2041, 80 per cent of
trips will be made on foot, by cycle or using
public transport.
This is a big ambition, and the draft Mayor’s    and this Business Plan describes how our
Transport Strategy (MTS) sets out the new        programme of investment for the next
approach we are taking to make it a reality.     five years will begin to deliver the three
Every decision we make will support this,        core MTS themes.

Healthy Streets and healthy people
Investment will focus on improving the           and prioritising walking, cycling and public
experience of being in the places where          transport use will help Londoners live
people live, work, go to school, spend time      active, healthy lives and help create a city
and travel. Reducing traffic dominance           that works well for its residents.

A good public transport experience
The right investment will ensure that            street-level investment. Making sure the
public transport becomes an increasingly         right services are available where people
attractive alternative to using a car.           need them, reducing overcrowding and
Proper planning for the whole journey            keeping fares affordable will help to
will help integrate public transport and         reduce car dependency.

New homes and jobs
Transport improvements are vital to              local amenities are within walking and
the creation of new homes and jobs,              cycling distance and public transport is
and can ensure that London’s growth              available for longer journeys, reducing
supports healthy lives. Our investment           car dependency and improving quality
will help to create communities where            of life.
                                                                                                We will support the Mayor’s Transport
                                                                                                Strategy by investing in Healthy Streets

10   Delivering the Mayor’s Transport Strategy                                                                                             Transport for London Business Plan   11
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
The focus of this plan
                                                                      New connections and a healthier,
                                                                      balanced approach will change the
                                                                      face of London’s streets.
                                                                      The investment in this plan will increase
                                                                      the quality and capacity of public transport,           The Elizabeth line will
                                                                      reduce car dependency and get people more
                                                                      active. By using the resources we have to
                                                                      create a better city and improve quality of life,
                                                                      we will be delivering the Mayor’s Transport
                                                                                                                              boost
                                                                                                                              capacity and cut journey times
                                                                      Strategy and responding to the opportunities
                                                                      and challenges London is facing.

                                                                      The growth of the Capital’s population –
                                                                      towards 10.5 million by 2041 – could put
                                                                      increasing strain on transport networks and             Transforming
                                                                      public space. Poor air quality and low active           Oxford Street
                                                                      travel levels have left Londoners facing a              would create
                                                                      public health crisis. The projects here and in          one of the world’s
                                                                      the rest of this Business Plan will tackle these
                                                                      issues head on.
                                                                                                                              finest
                                                                                                                              public spaces

                                                                                                                              Sustainable investment
                                                                                                                              in transport and
                                                                                                                              public spaces will

                                                                                                                              growth
                                                                                                                              support London’s

                              Our projects will help tackle
                              pollution and improve quality of life

12   The focus of this plan                                                                                               Transport for London Business Plan   13
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
Elizabeth line                                                                           Oxford Street transformation
                                                                                          Perhaps the most significant example        ambition is to create a more pleasant,
                                                                                          of our vision for London’s streets is the   healthier and accessible place, as the
                                                                                          proposed transformation of Oxford           Elizabeth line brings millions more
                                                                                          Street, which will also maximise the        people to this iconic location.
                                                                                          benefits of the Elizabeth line through
                                                                                          central London.                             In addition to establishing it as the best
                                                                                                                                      shopping experience in the world, we
                                                                                          Working in partnership with Westminster     will make it easier and safer to walk and
                                                                                          City Council, Camden Council, the New       cycle, improve air quality, reduce noise
                                                                                          West End Company BID, private sector        pollution and create one of the world’s
                                                                                          partners and potential investors, our       finest public spaces for years to come.

 The opening of the Elizabeth line is        A better customer experience
 the largest milestone in this Business      The Elizabeth line will set a new
 Plan. The first new railway to pass         standard for customers. Its 200-metre
 through central London in decades, it       trains will be energy-efficient and
 will open fully in 2019.                    accessible. They will have walk-through,
                                             air-cooled carriages providing live,
 Improving public                            accurate travel information and
 transport connectivity                      free WiFi.
 The Elizabeth line will serve 41 stations
 and stretch more than 60 miles from         The line will also dramatically reduce
 Reading and Heathrow in the west            journey times across central London.
 through tunnels in central London to        Today, the fastest route from Paddington
 Shenfield and Abbey Wood in the east.       to Bond Street is by Tube, and takes
 It will increase rail capacity in London    between 10 and 15 minutes. It is not
 by 10 per cent and provide a safe,          accessible and involves changing trains at
 reliable, accessible public transport       Baker Street. On the Elizabeth line, that
 option for more than 200 million            same journey will be fully accessible and
 people each year.                           take less than five minutes.

14   The focus of this plan                                                                                                                 Transport for London Business Plan    15
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
Investing sustainably across London

Phased opening of the Elizabeth line

May 2018                  Dec 2018                  May 2019               Dec 2019              The opening of the Elizabeth line and the    We can only understand and meet
TfL Rail services         Elizabeth line            Shenfield services     Services west         transformation of Oxford Street are large-   the changing demands of the capital
begin between             services start on         are connected          of Paddington are     scale examples of the improvements           by working closely with London’s
Paddington and            the central section       to the central         connected to the      we will be making all over London. Such      boroughs, residents and businesses.
Heathrow Terminal         between Paddington        section, with trains   central section and   projects allow us to rethink how we
4 (via the central        and Abbey Wood.           running through        extended to Reading   serve the city and create new and better     A visible example of this is our Healthy
terminals),               Services between          to Paddington          and Heathrow          connections within neighbourhoods, and       Streets portfolio, which is changing
replacing the             Paddington and                                   Terminal 5. The       between communities.                         the landscape of streets to encourage
existing Heathrow         Heathrow, and                                    Elizabeth line is                                                  more walking, cycling and use of public
Connect service           Liverpool Street                                 fully open            Changes to how people travel in              transport. Over the course of this
and part of the           and Shenfield, also                                                    and around Oxford Street when the            Business Plan we will work with our
Great Western inner       become known as                                                        Elizabeth line opens in 2018 will mean       borough partners to invest record levels
suburban service          the Elizabeth line                                                     fewer buses are needed in the West           in schemes across the city.
                                                                                                 End. At the same time, modernised
                                                                                                 stations further along the route in          We want to continue this level of
Oxford Street timeline                                                                           outer London may require better bus          investment despite the lack of financial
                                                                                                 services to make it easier for more          support for our operating services
                                                                                                 people to use public transport for their     from the Government. We must
                                                                                                 entire journey and unlock growth. A          develop our funding streams into
                                                                                                 shift toward public transport in areas of    robust, sustainable sources of income
                                                                                                 outer London would reduce suburban           for the future, and at the same time we
Dec 2017            Spring 2018 Dec 2018                   Dec 2019        Post 2020             traffic congestion and pollution, and        will have to make choices about our
Consultation        Consultation          Oxford Street    Oxford Street   Oxford Street,        encourage more people to walk and            investment programme as the needs of
on current          report on             West: traffic    East: traffic   Orchard Street        cycle, while improving air quality.          the city develop.
proposals           Oxford Street         removal*         removal*        to Marble Arch*
closes for          transformation                                                               There will be other opportunities            We will work with local communities
Oxford Street       published                                                                    to direct our services where they            to make these choices so that our
transformation                                                                                   are needed most. For example, we             services are convenient, accessible and
                                                                                                 will continue to consider how using          affordable, while securing our long
                                                                                                 technology responsibly – as we did           term financial resilience. In doing so,
                                                                                                 for the WiFi connectivity pilot on the       we will also meet our ambitious targets
                                                                                                 Tube in late 2016 – can provide a more       to improve our environment, and make
                                                                                                 accurate picture of how people travel.       London a safer and healthier city.
*Subject to the outcome of consultation

16   The focus of this plan                                                                                                                         Transport for London Business Plan   17
Transport for London Business Plan - 2018/19 to 2022/23
Healthy Streets across London
We are working with the boroughs on hundreds of schemes across
London that make it easier to walk, cycle or use public transport.                                                                            Elizabeth line
                                                                                                                                              Brentwood, Ealing, Greenwich Havering,
                                                                                                                                              Hillingdon, Islington, Newham, Redbridge,
                                                                                                                                              Tower Hamlets and Westminster
Cycle Superhighways
Camden, Ealing, Greenwich, Hammersmith
& Fulham, Hounslow, Kensington & Chelsea,
Lewisham, Southwark and Westminster

                                                                                                                                              Improved public areas and
                                                                                                                                              interchanges outside 18 outer London
                                                                                                                                              Elizabeth line stations

Clear and safe segregated routes
across London
                                                                                                                                              Liveable Neighbourhoods
                                                                                                                                              programme
                                                                                                                                              Ealing, Haringey, Waltham Forest, Hackney,
Vauxhall Gyratory                                                                                                                             Havering, Greenwich and Lewisham
Wandsworth

                                            The dots on the map provide an indicative illustration                                            Grant funding for borough schemes
Returning to two-way roads for better       of the hundreds of Healthy Streets schemes we will                                                to reduce car trips, improve health and
walking and cycling                         be delivering over this Business Plan period.                                                     air quality

Charlie Brown’s Roundabout                  Gunnersbury Avenue                                       Mini-Hollands                            Stratford Town Centre
Redbridge                                   Hounslow                                                 Enfield, Kingston and Waltham Forest     Newham

New pedestrian and cycle crossings, and     Major street improvements for safer for                  Three outer boroughs with a network of   A safer, more attractive town centre for
fewer delays to traffic and buses           walking and cycling                                      cycle routes                             people to spend time in

18   Healthy Streets across London                                                                                                                  Transport for London Business Plan   19
What we will deliver
We are investing to create Healthy Streets,
improve the customer experience and
provide new homes and jobs.

Healthy Streets and healthy people
By focusing our streets investment on          roads networks. We will continue to work
the needs of people, rather than vehicles,     with our policing partners to ensure our
we can transform London, improving             customers and road users are safe and
health and quality of life of its residents.   feel confident about using our services
                                               and being on London’s streets at all times.
We’re investing a record £2.2bn in
street schemes and initiatives designed        Over the past year, we have improved
to make walking, cycling and public            safety on the tram network in Croydon,
transport safer, cleaner and more              following the tragic derailment at
appealing, including funding eight new         Sandilands in November 2016. Working with
Cycle Superhighways and transforming           the operator, we have installed a new in-
major junctions like Waterloo IMAX,            cab driver protection device that detects
Old Street roundabout, Lambeth Bridge          and prevents fatigue and distraction.
north and south, and Highbury Corner.
Within this investment, our new Liveable       Extra safety measures introduced include
Neighbourhoods programme will provide          additional speed restrictions and a
£114m for boroughs to improve local            permanent maximum speed reduction
communities in every part of London.           from 80kph to 70kph, new signage for
                                               drivers, chevron signs at sites with
A safe, secure network                         significant bends, and an upgrade of the
Nothing is more important than                 CCTV system. Further improvements will
Londoners’ safety and our priority is to       include an alert system for monitoring and
run, maintain and improve our services so      managing tram speed, plus testing options
they meet the highest safety standards.        to strengthen the glass fitted to trams.
Our vision for safety is ‘Everyone home
safe and healthy each day’.                    We are also well advanced in acting on
                                               the recommendations in the interim Rail
We have a close relationship with our          Accident Investigation Branch’s report and
colleagues in the Metropolitan Police          will continue to do everything we can to
Service (MPS) and British Transport            support those who were injured, and the
Police (BTP) and collaborate every day to      families of those who lost their lives.
prevent and tackle crime. We will work
together to become more efficient, and         Road danger reduction
savings will be achieved in non-frontline      No death or serious injury that happens on
policing costs. TfL will continue to fund      London’s roads is acceptable, and we are
                                                                                             We are making London a better
the same number of BTP and MPS police          committed to addressing this as part of       place for people to walk and cycle
officers patrolling the transport and          our ‘Vision Zero’ approach to road danger.

20   What we will deliver                                                                                                         Transport for London Business Plan   21
A good public transport experience
The Mayor has committed to the world’s       Improving air quality                          The Mayor’s Transport Strategy will           Affordable and accessible
first Direct Vision Standard for heavy       We have already committed significant          deliver an easy-to-use, affordable and        Fares on our services remain frozen for
goods vehicles (HGVs), which assesses        resources to cleaning up London’s air and      accessible public transport system.           the Mayor’s term, so customers will pay
and rates how much drivers can see           will continue to do so. On 23 October we                                                     the same for TfL Tube and bus journeys
directly from their cab, in relation to      launched the Emissions Surcharge (also         Better services for more people               in 2020 as they did in 2016. Fares tied
other road users. Subject to consultation,   known as the Toxicity Charge or T-Charge).     Over the next five years, the Elizabeth       to National Rail will increase unless
we will work towards banning the most        It means cars, vans, minibuses, buses,         line will provide the biggest boost to        services are devolved to the Mayor, or the
dangerous lorries from the Capital by 2020   coaches and HGVs in central London             public transport services. It will open       Government follows his lead to freeze
and will make standards even stricter.       must meet minimum exhaust emission             in central London in 2018 and along the       prices. We will continue to lobby for
                                             standards, or pay £10 per day. This is in      whole route in 2019.                          the devolution of more surburban rail
Over the period of this plan, our bus        addition to paying the Congestion Charge.                                                    services to the Mayor so that he can make
safety programme will help to reduce                                                        We will deliver our modernisation             more rail journeys across London more
the number of people killed or seriously     We have also launched the first Low            plan to upgrade the Circle, District,         integrated, affordable and accessible.
injured on or by a bus in London by 70       Emission Bus Zone on Putney High               Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan
per cent. We are already trialling new       Street. Since last year, indicative results    lines, adding 33 per cent more capacity;      The Hopper fare has been hugely
technologies and will use the results to     show this has contributed to a 90 per          begin work on our Deep Tube programme         successful in its first year and we will
shape our improved bus safety standard,      cent reduction in the times, per hour,         to upgrade the Piccadilly line, and           expand it so that, from early next year,
which we will introduce in 2018.             that levels of nitrogen dioxide have           complete the Barking Riverside extension.     customers can make unlimited bus or
                                             exceeded EU limits. We will introduce a        Over the plan, we will also increase          tram transfers within the hour.
Tackling traffic on London’s roads           further 11 zones by 2020 and, from 2018,       capacity and frequency on the existing
We will continue to manage current           we will only purchase double-deckers           network. This year we ran a train every       Record levels of investment in step-free
congestion levels by improving our road      that are hybrid or zero-emission.              100 seconds on the Victoria line, one of      access will continue and, by 2022, at
status information and coordinating                                                         the most frequent services in the world.      least 30 more stations will be fully step-
roadworks. But because walking, cycling      Taxis form a critical part of our network,                                                   free. This is in addition to the Elizabeth
and public transport are more space-         and from January 2018 all taxis receiving      We will also make better use of our           line, which will also be step-free when
efficient ways for people to move            a London licence for the first time will be    existing assets to run faster and more        it opens fully in 2019. In parallel, we will
around, the only way to tackle congestion    zero emission capable. To support this,        frequent services. On the Jubilee and         continue to look at how we provide for
in the longer term will be to support a      we will continue our investment in rapid       Northern lines, we will bring in faster and   people with more specific transport
shift towards these forms of transport.      charging points, delivering 300 by 2020.       more frequent services by making better       needs and carry on our work to make bus
                                                                                            use of technology and modernising how         stops and taxi ranks more accessible.
All our investment will support this,        The Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ)             we work.
but specific measures are also needed.       will be introduced in central London                                                         Faster, more reliable journeys
Freight makes up a fifth of all traffic in   in 2019 and we will expand it across Greater   We will also use our understanding about      In the next five years, we will complete
London, so we will work with businesses      London for heavy diesel vehicles, including    journey patterns to make our services         major station upgrades at Victoria and
to improve delivery and servicing.           buses, coaches and lorries, in 2020. It        more efficient so they meet all Londoners’    Bank – two of the busiest, most crowded
London’s boroughs manage 95 per cent         will be extended to the North and South        needs. This could include increasing          stations on the Tube – and at Bond
of the city’s streets, and we will help      Circular roads for cars and vans in 2021.      frequency on parts of the London              Street, and begin work at Camden and
them develop traffic reduction strategies                                                   Overground, or reconfiguring the bus          Holborn stations.
that will benefit residents.                                                                network to help create healthier streets.

22   What we will deliver                                                                                                                       Transport for London Business Plan   23
To maintain reliability, we will plan further   More digital services                         information, particularly for customers with
bus priority measures, taking into account      We will continue to look at new ways in       accessible travel needs.                                           Around

                                                                                                                                                                 50m
the needs of other road users.                  which to provide travel information.
                                                                                              As well as modernising our services,
Harnessing the power of technology              In September 2017, we launched a new          technology is allowing us to update our
Across our business, we are improving           app that enables customers top up their       advertising estate – and boost commercial
                                                                                                                                                                 journeys with
the way we use technology to make it            Oyster card with pay as you go credit         revenues – and we will install more than 750                       contactless a month
easier for people to travel, how and when       and buy Travelcards while on the move.        digital screens on the Tube and Elizabeth line,
they want.                                      In October 2017 we extended this to           along with 120 cross-track projection screens.
                                                enable purchases to be collected on           This will mean our advertisers can reach their
Following a successful trial in 2016, we        buses for the first time. The app, which      target audience with even greater impact.
are looking at how, with suitable controls,     is available to download for free via the

                                                                                                                                                   13,200
we can use data from WiFi connections           Apple App Store, also allows people           Technology is also improving customers’
on Tube stations to better understand           to check their credit and receive a ‘low      connectivity – we plan to launch the first
customers’ journey choices. This                balance’ alert direct to their smartphone.    phase of 4G on the Underground in 2019.
information could be used to reduce             Future releases will include support for
                                                                                                                                                    developers use our data
crowding, prioritise investment and             contactless payment cards, customers          Smartcard ticketing                                   to create 600 apps
improve services. And working with the          with travel concessions, and the ability to   We will continue to enhance the Oystercard.
Home Office, we will introduce the new          request refunds more easily.                  Among the improvements will be the

                                                                                                                                                    10,500
Emergency Services Network on the                                                             introduction of weekly capping to bring it into
Underground in 2019, with the aim of            We launched the TfL TravelBot on              line with contactless payment and a system
launching cellular access for the public        Facebook Messenger in June 2017.              to help us get refunds to customers more
soon after.                                     Since then, our first conversational          reliably. We also will make ‘pay as you go’
                                                ‘bot’ has engaged with more than              available on the Elizabeth line.                      unique visitors to
                                                                                                                                                    the TfL TravelBot on
In addition to our own information              10,500 customers. The bot understands                                                               Facebook Messenger
products, our open data strategy has            language queries, such as ‘when is the        Contactless payment is now used for 43 per
created a community of more than 13,000         next bus?’, and responds using artificial     cent of pay as you go journeys. We expect
developers, who can access the data for         intelligence. As well as bus arrival times    this figure to grow as more customers
free, powering more than 600 apps that          and route information, users can find out     adopt mobile payment as it is progressively
are used by 42 per cent of Londoners.           the status of Tube services and access        enhanced by the payment providers.
We will look to make further data sets          maps. We will add new functionality,
available to enable the production of           such as journey planning, as we learn         We will work with fare collection providers
more innovative products and services.          more about customers’ needs.                  to maximise revenue from licensing the
                                                                                              intellectual property we own in our contactless
Our social media presence also                  Digital displays around the network will      payment system. We will also deliver a second
continues to grow – we have 6.4million          be optimised to provide better real-time      generation handheld device for our revenue
Twitter followers, 733,000 Facebook             information, particularly during periods      inspectors, and a new, more reliable smartcard
fans and 47,000 followers on Instagram.         of disruption. We will also make it easier    reader on all buses.
                                                to access personally relevant travel

24   What we will deliver                                                                                                                       Transport for London Business Plan   25
New homes and jobs
Work to improve our transport services                                            Unlocking opportunities                      Our £550m Growth Fund will finance
directly supports London’s growth.                                                As part of this Business Plan, we will       transport infrastructure schemes that
                                                                                  develop proposals for Crossrail 2 so         lead to tens of thousands more homes
Sustainable travel                                                                that a Hybrid Bill can be submitted to       and jobs, and unlock development and
Our focus on Healthy Streets gives us                                             Parliament in 2020. The scheme is the        regeneration opportunities in some of
a guide for how to promote walking,                                               next big step for the development and        London’s most important growth areas.
cycling and public transport as part of                                           growth of the whole city; it will enable     Over the next five years, schemes include
new developments, so people can live                                              up to 200,000 new homes and directly         funding for new stations in Tottenham
active and healthier lives.

This has been built into proposals for
new river crossings in east London,
                                                200,000
                                                new homes will be supported
                                                                                  support 60,000 jobs across the country
                                                                                  during construction and 200,000 when
                                                                                  services begin. We are working closely
                                                                                  with the Government and Network
                                                                                                                               Hale, White Hart Lane and Beam Park;
                                                                                                                               road schemes in Bromley-by-Bow,
                                                                                                                               Croydon, Wandsworth and Vauxhall;
                                                                                                                               and larger projects such as the new
which we are progressing. A new                 by Crossrail 2 and                Rail on this nationally significant          Rotherhithe to Canary Wharf crossing

                                                10,800
walking and cycling crossing between                                              infrastructure project.                      and an extension of the tram network
Rotherhithe and Canary Wharf would                                                                                             in Sutton.
create a sustainable transport link                                               This year we received powers from
between two Opportunity Areas that,             new homes supported               the Government to begin building the         On the Tube, our work to upgrade the
together, are expected to support more          by the Gospel Oak to              4.5km extension of the Gospel Oak            existing network will support 80,000
than 36,000 new homes and 112,000 jobs.         Barking Riverside London          to Barking line to Barking Riverside, a      homes across the city. We will complete
                                                Overground extension              project that will support 10,800 homes       the Northern line extension from
Further east, we will investigate options for                                     on one of east London’s largest new          Kennington to Battersea and, subject to
more public transport links across the river,                                     housing developments. Construction           consultation, start applying for powers

                                                60,000
including a DLR extension to Thamesmead                                           will begin in 2018 and services will start   to build the extension of the Bakerloo
and begin building an extension of the                                            running in 2021.                             line south of Elephant and Castle. These
London Overground to Barking Riverside.                                                                                        will serve important Opportunity Areas
                                                jobs will be supported by         We have also been developing plans           and lead to more homes and jobs.
In west London, working with the                Crossrail 2 during construction   for the Silvertown Tunnel, which will
Old Oak and Park Royal Development                                                help to address the lack of cross-river      In parallel, we will continue providing
Corporation, we will invest in transport                                          connections in east London and reduce        new, affordable housing through the
measures in and around Old Oak                                                    the environmental impact of traffic          development of our own property
Common, in preparation for the new High                                           congestion. Coupled with a package of        estate. By 2021, we will have started work
Speed 2 and Crossrail station opening                                             bus services and concessions for local       on sites that will deliver 10,000 homes –
on the site in 2026. We will look at what                                         residents, the new crossing presents         50 per cent of which will be affordable –
can be delivered in the short, medium,                                            huge potential for growth, both north        as well as new workspaces and offices.
and long term, and how we can maximise                                            and south of the river. We are currently
funding opportunities both from central                                           awaiting a decision on the Development
Government and the private sector.                                                Consent order which would give us the
                                                                                  powers to build and operate the scheme.

26   What we will deliver                                                                                                            Transport for London Business Plan   27
Business at a glance

How we report on our business                                                                               Facts and figures

                           Buses                                                                            By 2022/23...
                          Streets
                                                                                                                      760km
                                                                                                                      of track on our rail
                                                                                                                                                              6.3m
                                                                                                                                                              passengers carried
                                                                                                                                                                                        33,000
                                                                                                                                                                                        river trips a day
                               Rail
                                                                                                                      and Underground                         daily by London’s         (from 30,000 in 2017/18)
                                                                                                                      routes (from                            buses (from 6.1
                       Underground                                                                                    680km in 2017/18)                       million in 2017/18)

                       Elizabeth line

                           Other                                                                            980
                                                                                                            trains on our
                                                                                                                                                                   33,000
                                                                                                                                                                   daily cycle hire
                                                                                                            network (from                                          journeys (from
                        Commercial
                                                                                                            940 in 2017/18)                                        27,000 in 2017/18)

Sources of funding                                                                                          Total costs
2017/18 – projected                                    2022/23 – plan                                       2017/18 – projected                                    2022/23 – plan
£2.4bn                                   £4.6bn        £0.6bn                                    £6.3bn                                            £6.3bn          £1.9bn
                                                       (6%)                                                                                                                                                £7.0bn
(23%)                                      (45%)                                                    (62%)                                             (61%)        (19%)                                     (69%)
                                                                                                            £3.0bn
                                                       £1.9bn                                               (29%)
£0.2bn                                                 (18%)                                                                                                       £0.7bn
(2%)                                                                                                                                                               (6%)
                                                                                                                                                                   £0.6bn
                                                       £1.4bn                                               £0.6bn                                                 (6%)
£2.3bn                                                 (14%)                                                (6%)
(22%)
                                                                                                            £0.4bn
                                                                                                            (4%)
£0.8bn
(8%)

 Total:    £10.3bn                                      Total:    £10.2bn                                    Total:   £10.3bn                                       Total:   £10.2bn
▀ Passenger income      ▀ Other income    ▀ Grant funding      ▀ Crossrail funding   ▀ Use of borrowing     ▀ Operating costs       ▀ Net financing costs        ▀ Capital renewals       ▀ New capital investment
                                                                                       and cash reserves

28      Business at a glance                                                                                                                                               Transport for London Business Plan   29
Financial summary
We must cover our day-to-day
operational costs from sustainable
income sources and generate a surplus
to fund capital investments.
We will continue to invest record                          We are focusing on street improvements,                  This latest plan builds on that to generate a          One year into our latest cost reduction
amounts in new and improved                                improving air quality and maintaining a                  surplus in later years. We need to generate            programme, we have successfully
infrastructure without the operational                     safe and reliable transport network to                   a growing budget surplus to continue to                delivered against budgeted savings.
general grant funding from central                         promote a shift to walking, cycling and                  invest in new capacity and replace assets              This year, we will exceed our budgeted
government from 2018/19.                                   public transport.                                        as they reach the end of their useful life.            operating cost savings by £138m. We can
                                                                                                                                                                           go further over the remaining years of
We will achieve this while meeting our                     Our 2016 Business Plan was a transitional                Since the 2016 plan, passenger volumes                 the plan, having identified opportunities
commitments to deliver the Mayor’s                         plan, ahead of the new Mayor’s draft                     have been lower than anticipated owing                 for new efficiencies including receiving
Transport Strategy, by improving                           Transport Strategy, as we set ourselves                  to changing economic factors affecting                 better value from our supply chain,
Londoners’ quality of life with record                     the financial objective of breaking-even                 how and when people travel. We have,                   consolidating our buildings and reviewing
funding for the Healthy Streets portfolio.                 on the cost of day-to-day operations,                    therefore, assumed lower overall growth                our organisational structure, while
                                                           including the costs of financing, in 2021/22.            in journey numbers over this plan period.              protecting safety, services and reliability.

Operating account

                                   Actual      Forecast    Plan        Plan        Plan       Plan       Plan       Capital account
TfL Group
(£m)                               2016/17      2017/18    2018/19     2019/20     2020/21    2021/22    2022/23                                    Actual     Forecast    Plan         Plan       Plan        Plan        Plan

Passenger income                     4,694        4,638     4,793        5,156       5,721     6,007       6,306    TfL Group
                                                                                                                    (£m)                            2016/17     2017/18    2018/19      2019/20    2020/21     2021/22     2022/23
Other operating income                  717         728       843          896        996       1,254      1,295
                                                                                                                    New capital investment           (1,224)     (1,550)    (1,512)      (1,356)     (1,210)    (1,210)     (1,895)
Total operating income                5,411       5,366     5,636        6,052       6,717      7,261      7,601
                                                                                                                    Crossrail investment             (1,593)     (1,402)     (460)         (65)           -           -            -
General grant                          447          228            -           -          -          -          -
                                                                                                                    Total capital investment         (2,817)     (2,952)    (1,972)      (1,421)    (1,210)     (1,210)     (1,895)
Mayoral business rates                 854          854       929         854         854        854        854
                                                                                                                    Financed by:
Other revenue grants                     51          73        55             37          6          6          6
                                                                                                                      Investment grant                 944          960        976         993        1,010      1,030        1,051
Total income                         6,763        6,521     6,620        6,943       7,577      8,121      8,461
                                                                                                                      Property and asset receipts        14          89        875          162           8        140         106
Operating cost                       (6,172)     (6,278)   (6,608)      (6,698)     (6,768)    (6,816)    (7,005)
                                                                                                                      Borrowing                         682         621        801         500         601         501        500
Net operating surplus                   591         243           12       245        809       1,305      1,456      Crossrail funding sources         170         208        312           53        144          42          46
Capital renewals                      (636)        (593)     (496)        (621)      (650)      (652)      (652)      Other capital grants              154          211       213          216           13          12          16
Net cost of operations                                                                                              Total                             1,964       2,089      3,177        1,924      1,776       1,725        1,719
                                       (45)       (350)     (484)        (376)         159       653        804
before financing

Net financing costs                   (413)       (434)      (484)         (511)     (543)      (575)       (651)   Net capital account               (853)       (863)      1,205         503         566         515        (176)

Net surplus/(cost) of operations     (458)        (784)      (968)       (887)       (384)         78        153

30   Financial summary                                                                                                                                                                Transport for London Business Plan         31
Cash flow summary                                                                                       renewing these roads, between £100m           network, but also one that is financially
                                                                                                        to £150m each year, are effectively           sustainable for future generations.
                            Actual      Forecast    Plan       Plan      Plan      Plan      Plan       being cross subsidised from fare-paying
TfL Group                                                                                               public transport users. This is neither       The main projects planned over the next
(£m)                         2016/17     2017/18    2018/19    2019/20   2020/21   2021/22   2022/23    sustainable nor equitable. As a result, in    five years include:
Net cost of operations         (458)        (784)     (968)      (887)     (384)       78        153    the short to medium term we will have
                                                                                                        to significantly reduce our programme of      Underground and rail
Net capital account            (853)        (863)     1,205       503       566        515      (176)   proactive capital renewals on the road        • The completion and opening of the
Working capital movements        (42)       1,134     (234)       (43)      (65)       24       270     network, although we will ensure safety         Elizabeth line
                                                                                                        of the network is maintained.
Increase/(decrease)
in cash balances              (1,353)       (513)          3     (427)       117       617      247                                                   • A signalling upgrade adding 33 per
                                                                                                        In the medium to long term, it is               cent capacity on the Circle, District,
                                                                                                        important that we identify new,                 Hammersmith & City and
                                                                                                        sustainable funding sources for London’s        Metropolitan lines
                                                                                                        roads. We and the Mayor are calling
We must deliver a step change in                    we are temporarily pausing our plans                on the Government, as part of their           • New trains and signalling on the
driving new revenue streams from our                to buy more trains for the Jubilee and              Transport Investment Strategy, to               Piccadilly line, providing 60 per cent
commercial activities, by looking at how            Northern lines. We will also introduce              make sure that a link between Vehicle           extra capacity
to make more of our retail spaces at                new trains on the DLR, additional                   Exercise Duty and roads funding is
stations and on high streets, advertising           trains on the London Overground,                    applied to London as well. This would         • Station upgrades at Victoria, Tottenham
opportunities, and establishing TfL                 begin modernising the Piccadilly line,              allow us and the boroughs to continue           Court Road, Bond Street, Bank, Holborn
consultancy services.                               and continue our step-free access                   modernising London’s road network, as           and Camden
                                                    programme to open up more journey                   well as support more walking and cycling
We have optimised our capital                       options using public transport.                     journeys across the Capital.                  • A major programme of investment to
investment programme to make the                                                                                                                        improve accessibility at Tube stations
most efficient use of current capacity,             From next year we have to, for the                  The success of this plan will depend            across the network
and the new capacity being added during             first time, address the critical issues             on the delivery of our cost reduction
this Business Plan, together with record            of London’s road network, including                 programme and identifying new funding         • The London Overground extension to
new investment in Healthy Streets.                  congestion, road danger, maintenance                for London’s streets. We must continue          Barking Riverside as part of a wholesale
The Elizabeth line will add 10 per cent             and air quality, without any Government             to increase public transport journeys and       regeneration of the area
capacity, and the upgrade of the Circle,            operating grant. Furthermore, from                  do everything we can to encourage fast
District, Hammersmith & City and                    2021, the £500m raised every year from              take up of new Elizabeth line services.       • Forty-three new DLR trains by early 2020
Metropolitan lines will add 33 per cent             Londoners paying Vehicle Excise Duty will
capacity to the Tube network, as per our            be collected by central Government and              We will be more efficient and cost-           • Northern line extension to Battersea
current programmes. The benefits from               only invested in roads outside the Capital.         effective, and we will keep our promises        opening with services starting in 2020,
the largest investment programme in the                                                                 to the Mayor and to London. We have an          supporting 25,000 new jobs and 20,000
Tube’s history, combined with the huge              This means the net operating costs                  opportunity to create a great legacy of not     new homes
capacity increases coming soon from the             of London’s roads, currently almost                 only a safer and more reliable transport
arrival of the Elizabeth line, means that           £200m each year, and the cost of

32   Financial summary                                                                                                                                      Transport for London Business Plan   33
An integrated programme for streets           Passenger journey analysis                     Passenger journey analysis
and buses                                     Trends in the number of passenger
• A comprehensive Healthy Streets             journeys are described in more detail in                                 Actual       Forecast   Plan         Plan        Plan        Plan         Plan   Variance
  portfolio, including the transformation     the operational trends section and the                                                                                                                    2017/18 -
                                                                                             Passenger journeys*                                                                                         2022/23
  of Oxford Street, local walking and         divisional summaries.                          (millions)                 2016/17      2017/18   2018/19     2019/20      2020/21     2021/22     2022/23        %
  cycling schemes, and the Rotherhithe
                                                                                             London Underground             1,378      1,333     1,340        1,341       1,339        1,371      1,403       5%
  to Canary Wharf crossing, which is          The opening of the Elizabeth line will
  currently being consulted upon              have the biggest effect on capacity and        Buses                          2,262     2,230     2,248        2,255        2,258       2,282       2,308       3%
                                              passenger journeys in this plan, with an       DLR                              122        124       124          117         112         114         120       -3%
• An accelerated programme of air             increase from 46 million currently, on
  quality and environmental                   TfL Rail, to nearly 270 million by 2022/23,    London Overground                189       194        212         231         238         248         262        35%
  improvements, including the                 when the line will have been fully open        London Trams                     30         29        30           30          30           32         33        14%
  implementation of the ULEZ                  for more than three years.
                                                                                             Emirates Air Line                  1          1           1            1           1           1           2     7%
• A bus safety programme that brings          Growth in passenger journeys on                Elizabeth line                   48         46        80          163         258         263         269       485%
  together technology, training, monitoring   London Underground will be steadier,
                                                                                             Dial-a-Ride                        1          1           1            1           1           1            1    0%
  and standards to contribute towards the     reflecting assumed lower growth and
  Mayor’s bus-specific road safety targets    passengers migrating to the Elizabeth          London River Services             11         11          11           12          12          12           12    9%
                                              line, particularly from the Central line. We   Cycle hire                        10         10          11           11          11          11           12   20%
• The Silvertown Tunnel, as part of a         anticipate an increase in Tube passengers
  broader plan for more river crossings in    of five per cent over this five-year plan.     Walking                        2,435     2,460     2,485        2,510        2,535      2,560        2,585       5%
  the east                                                                                   Cycling                         273        299       326         353          379         406         433       45%
                                              As we continue to improve London’s
Building for the future                       streets and air quality, and encourage         Total                          6,760     6,738     6,869        7,025        7,174       7,301      7,440        10%
• Coordinated investment to move              people to walk, cycle and use public
  towards 80 per cent of trips being          transport, we will see a 45 per cent
                                                                                             *All figures are London-wide
  made on foot, by cycle or using             rise in cycling trips and a five per cent
  public transport                            increase in walking trips.

• Crossrail 2, a northeast-to-southwest       We will be focusing our activities on
  rail route to relieve congestion on lines   the bus network to provide capacity
  into Waterloo                               that meets demand across London.
                                              Combined with the effect of our
• An extension to the Bakerloo line           investment in reducing congestion
                                              and improving reliability on our roads,
• A development programme that                we expect bus passenger numbers to
  delivers 50 per cent affordable housing     steadily increase from 2017/18 and reach
  while generating income to reinvest in      2.3 billion by 2022/23.
  transport services

34   Financial summary                                                                                                                                              Transport for London Business Plan        35
Financial trends

Total income                                                                                                                        Total costs
(£m)                                                                                                                                (£m)
                                                  18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       7,391    7,656
9,000                                                                                                                     8,461     8,000                                                                        7,209      7,311
                                                                                                                 8,121                                                                             7,092
                                                                                                      7,577                                           6,506       6,722       6,585     6,712                               7%          8%         9%
8,000                                                                                                                      15%      7,000                                                           7%            7%
                    6,835                                                                   6,943                15%                        6,158                  6%                    6%
          6,818                      6,741        6,763           6,521          6,620                 13%                                             6%                      6%                                                                  91%
7,000                                                                                                                                         5%                                                    93%           93%       93%        92%
           11%        11%                                                                    13%                           10%      6,000
                                                                                                                                                                      94%               94%
                                     11%           11%             11%            13%                  11%       11%                                   94%                    94%
6,000
           13%                                                                                                                               95%
                     14%             13%           13%                                       13%                           75%      5,000
                                                                  14%             15%                            74%
5,000                                        9%             7%              3%                        76%
           16%       12%                                                                    74%                                     4,000
4,000                                68%           69%            71%             72%
          60%        63%
                                                                                                                                    3,000
3,000
                                                                                                                                    2,000
2,000

1,000                                                                                                                               1,000

     0                                                                                                                                 0
          2013/14   2014/15      2015/16          2016/17        2017/18         2018/19   2019/20   2020/21    2021/22   2022/23           2013/14   2014/15     2015/16    2016/17   2017/18     2018/19      2019/20   2020/21     2021/22   2022/23
                            Actual                               Forecast                                Plan                                                Actual                    Forecast                                Plan

▀ Passenger income                   ▀ General grant                     ▀ Mayoral business rates               ▀ Other income      ▀ Operating costs                   ▀ Net financing costs
                                                                           and other revenue grants

We have seen lower growth in demand                                          helped to dampen the effect of these                   continues to grow, we expect growth to                        In 2017/18, we expect our outturn
for our services than previously                                             negative economic factors. Where fares                 return to more typical levels for the rest                    operating costs before financing to be
forecast for this year, largely owing to                                     have been increased on the National Rail               of the plan.                                                  £6.3bn and we are planning that, by
economic factors affecting the whole                                         network, this has led to much sharper                                                                                2022/23, they will be no more than £7bn.
of the UK, including the uncertainty                                         reductions in passenger numbers for                    A significant proportion of our expected                      This rise – just 11 per cent – includes
of Brexit. Lower consumer confidence,                                        those operators. This plan assumes the                 revenue growth will come from                                 inflation and the increased costs of
GDP growth stagnating, real wage                                             Mayor’s TfL fares freeze is maintained                 the opening of the Elizabeth line. In                         operating the Elizabeth line, which are
growth and a softening housing market                                        until 2020.                                            particular, the final opening phases from                     largely offset by significant savings.
are all affecting services and retail in                                                                                            2019 will bring new passengers from
London, leading to lower than forecast                                       We have made reasonable assumptions                    outside London onto our services.                             On a like-for-like basis – adjusting for
passenger numbers. Current patterns                                          to estimate our future passenger                                                                                     the increased costs of operating the
in rail journeys show a year-on-year                                         revenue, based on independent economic                 Over the past year we have successfully                       Elizabeth line, taking into account
reduction in trips within Zone 1, and                                        analysis and trend data. Drawing on                    stopped the fall in bus revenues by a                         inflation and savings – we are holding our
this is reflected in our lower passenger                                     the Greater London Authority’s worst-                  series of bus priority measures. We must                      operating costs broadly the same with
income. These economic factors have                                          case assumptions for the UK economy,                   make sure speeds are sustained and                            just a three per cent increase between
also affected our commercial revenue.                                        we expect the negative pressures on                    service levels are accurately matched to                      2017/18 and 2022/23. We are on track
                                                                             demand for our services to last for the                demand, to make sure the bus remains an                       with the delivery of our transformation
Early indications are that the Mayor’s                                       first half of this plan. As the uncertainty            attractive travel option.                                     programme, which will be at the core of
policy of keeping fares affordable has                                       of Brexit passes and London’s population                                                                             achieving this target.

36       Financial trends                                                                                                                                                                                    Transport for London Business Plan         37
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