TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19 - GLOBETRENDER THE FUTURE OF TRAVEL - Business Finland
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GLOBETRENDER
THE FUTURE OF TRAVEL
TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19
IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INTRODUCTION
Cover image: Production Club Micrashell Suit
TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19 GLOBETRENDER.COM/DOWNLOADS
W
elcome to sunbathers and diners for answers as to what
Globetrender’s from getting too close), lies ahead. As trend
report on Travel but many others such forecasters, we aim to
in the Age of Covid-19 as Africa, Argentina, provide a reliable degree
(published June 2020), in Brazil, Indonesia and India of illumination. In this
association with Cirium will need more time. report, we have identified
and The PC Agency. Although many of ten trends that we think are
After months of us will be hoping for a most relevant for the short-
lockdown, during return to “normality”, to mid-term (summer 2020
Download Globetrender’s Gen Z Download Globetrender’s Future of
which half the world’s when it comes to travel, to early 2021), as well as Horizons: Travel in 2020 and Beyond Luxury Travel Forecast: 2020-2025
population has been this simply won’t be the stories of innovation, new (£85 + VAT) (£195 + VAT)
ordered to stay at home, case. Arrivals may be ideas, expert predictions
some governments required to self-isolate and sector deep dives (in
are opening borders for 14 days (although this case, luxury travel, Gen There will be gained, and space for and family (celebratory
and allowing airlines UK travel bosses are Z and travel publishing). recessions to contend creative thinkers to reunions are something to
to start flying again, campaigning against A lot of commentators with, unemployment and innovate their way out look forward to), as well as
which is great news for this), while the US may are talking about the the complete rewiring of of problems. explore the world.
holidaymakers and travel be opening up internally “new normal”, but for expectations for urban Reassurance can Globetrender would
companies alike. But but not to outsiders Globetrender, there is living. There will also be also be found in the fact like to thank Cirium
moving from a “collective just yet. Flying will be nothing normal about the greater citizen surveillance that people will have an and The PC Agency for
pause” to getting back strangely dystopian, turbulence we face in the and more automation, as even stronger desire to supporting this project. We
to business will be while city breaks, pool year ahead. We will do our AI-powered machines get spend time with friends hope you find it useful.
challenging. parties and buzzing best, of course, to adapt the moment they have
In Europe, a handful resorts will rank low in the to the ever-changing been waiting for.
of countries, including desirability stakes. rules for social behaviour, This may sound
Jenny Southan
Greece, France, Italy and Since the beginning, trade, transport, work and alarming but ultimately,
Editor and founder
Spain, say they will be Globetrender’s defining so on, but we will all have Globetrender believes that
open to foreign tourists remit has been the to accept it will be a while amid the white noise, there
this summer (albeit with future of travel. Now, the until masks stop being an will be clarity, opportunity
perspex screens to keep entire industry is looking essential item of clothing. and betterment to be
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 2 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19
NEW: GLOBETRENDER FUTURE OF TRAVEL CONSULTING PACKAGE Preparing for a New World Order in the Age of Covid-19 Understand the Future of Travel and How to Capitalise on it Today WHAT’S INCLUDED? • One-hour phone consultation to discuss key issues you are facing as a company as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic • A bespoke plan of action in PDF format containing trend insights, case studies, tailored strategy, editorial guidance and inspiring solutions • Free access to one premium trend report of your choice PRICE: £750 + VAT BOOK TODAY: JENNY@GLOBETRENDER.COM GLOBETRENDER
ABOUT GLOBETRENDER
ABOUT GLOBETRENDER IN ASSOCIATION
Globetrender WITH WATERFRONT
(globetrender.com) is PUBLISHING
a digital magazine and Waterfront Publishing
trend forecasting agency (waterfront-publishing.
dedicated to the future com) is an independent
of travel. Founded by magazine publisher
Jenny Southan in 2015, based in East London.
it delivers cutting-edge It creates print, mobile
insights into the ways and online media, JENNY SOUTHAN, ROSE DYKINS, MARISA CANNON,
people travel in the 21st and provides editorial, EDITOR AND FOUNDER CONTRIBUTOR CONTRIBUTOR
century. Run by a team design, proofreading Jenny has 13 years worth Rose Dykins is a freelance Marisa Cannon is a travel
of highly experienced and marketing services. of experience working travel writer and editor editor who has worked
journalists and editors, its It is the publisher of as an award-winning with a background in with brands including
editorial and consulting ABTA Magazine and travel journalist, with ten business travel and a British Airways and
services are there to arm Cruise Adviser, both years as features editor penchant for intriguing Jaguar Land Rover, and
you with the knowledge aimed at the travel trade. of Business Traveller experiences, such as has written for Business
you need to future-proof magazine. As well as bison-spotting in Poland. Traveller, CNN.com and
your company. running Globetrender, She can’t wait to explore the South China Morning
she freelances for titles Japan’s “museum Post. Having lived on four
such as Condé Nast archipelago” in the Seto continents before the age
Traveller, The Telegraph Inland Sea when she of 18, she’s keenly aware of
and Mr Porter. When the eventually goes on the speed at which travel
coronavirus pandemic her “second-attempt” evolves, and is inspired
took hold, she knew honeymoon after the by the ingenuity coming
Globetrender would first was postponed from the travel sector in
have to tackle its impact due to Covid-19. the face of Covid-19, from
on travel head-on, and During lockdown, Rose airlines providing meals
immediately set to work and the co-hosts of her to quarantined medical
analysing emerging podcast, The Carry On, staff, to hotels that have
trends. She is excited to have been recording turned rooms into pop-up
share this first report with episodes remotely restaurants. The volcanic
you, which will be part of and dreaming about caves of Lanzarote are
an ongoing series. future trips. next on her bucket list.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 4 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19
METHODOLOGY
Adobe Stock
root of every trend so
we are always looking
at what is new and
disruptive. Just like
news reporters, we
ask the questions
“who”, “what”, “where”,
“why” and “when”?
But like investigative
journalists, we then
dive much deeper.
By discovering
multiple examples of
a trend, conducting
desk- and field-based
ANALYSIS AND TREND When searching for every “micro” trend, we research, interviewing
FORECASTING trends, we apply the also consider the “macro” insiders and producing
At Globetrender, we “three times” rule. A trends that represent case studies, “qualitative”
focus on qualitative one-time occurrence is the wider cultural shifts proof of it is generated.
research underpinned an anomaly, twice is a in consumer desires, At Globetrender, we rely
by quantitative data. We coincidence and three motivations, values on our unique access to
always consider how the times is a trend, worthy of and behaviours around travel industry experts
lifecycle of a trend moves further exploration. The the world. and ongoing consumer
from the innovators identification and naming These are based observation to remain
that trigger them on the of trends is based on IOI: on STEEP – Social, ahead of the curve. Email
minority fringes, on to Intuition, Observation Technological, Economic, jenny@globetrender.com
the early adopters, early and Investigation. This Environmental and for further insights and
majority, late majority is both a creative and Political – forces. bespoke consulting into
and, finally, the laggards. academic process. For Innovation is at the travel of tomorrow.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 5 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19
CONTENTS
PAGE 7: INSIGHT: CIRIUM PAGE 23: PAGE 31: GLOBAL PAGE 42: DEEP DIVE:
. SUSTAINABILITY TOURISM DATA GEN Z
PAGE 9: DOMESTIC PARADOXES
SANCTITY PAGE 33: CASE STUDY: PAGE 44: DEEP DIVE:
AIRBNB LUXURY TRAVEL
PAGE 11: GERMAPHOBIA
PAGE 13: WILDERNESS PAGE 34: CASE STUDY:
SEEKING NEXT-GEN PPE
PAGE 15: AIRLINE
HUNGER GAMES
PAGE 25:
UNPRECEDENTED
FLEXIBILITY
PAGE 46: OPINION: THE
PAGE 27: DREAM TRIP FUTURE OF LUXURY
PLANNING
PAGE 47: DEEP DIVE:
PAGE 29: INVOLUNTARY TRAVEL PUBLISHING
PAGE 17: AIRLINE DATA UNDERTOURISM
PAGE 18: ISOLATION PAGE 35: CASE STUDY:
VACATIONS HONG KONG
PAGE 20: ANTI-VIRAL PAGE 36: VOICES
ARRIVALS
PAGE 39: INTELLIGENCE:
PAGE 22: DESTINATION 25 IDEAS
OPENINGS
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 6 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19
INSIGHT: CIRIUM
As much as companies decisions about its domestic travel over What is unique about of flight disruption, as
might wish we had a operations in times of international travel. the coronavirus airlines began to adjust
crystal ball to see how the uncertainty. However, uncertainty pandemic in terms of the their schedules on a
travel industry will look in about travel safety amid data associated with it? minute-by-minute basis.
2030 or 2050, forecasting Are travel searches Covid-19 indicates that As the virus has The key value in
is never an exact science. a good indicator of current searches may grown exponentially the data surrounding
However, analysing whether someone will be simply aspirational. and, in some cases, coronavirus is the
patterns in historical actually book a trip? That is, they may or may unpredictably around insight it provides
data enables analysts Under normal conditions, not lead to a spike in the world, the data businesses to plan and
to detect trends and travel searches are a bookings when lockdown associated with it has prepare for recovery,
forecast outcomes that very useful indicator for measures are lifted. changed rapidly from such as aircraft rotation
could occur at specific consumer demand and There is still a great day to day. We have had and how and when
times and within certain future bookings. Airlines, deal of risk that Covid-19 to adapt our operations to bring aircraft back
parameters. hotels and destination could rage again due to to respond to the ever- into service efficiently.
J
eremy Bowen, CEO The reliability of marketers closely watch premature reopenings changing landscape. For Everyone is looking to
of Cirium, explains these future predictions trends in online search and lax behaviour. A example, fusing multiple the Asia-Pacific region
how to use data to depends on the quality to forecast demand and strong second wave of data sets, including flight as we begin to see
forecast travel trends of that data and the set pricing. Yet current infections is the last thing status and schedules, to domestic flights return to
when confronted with an experts who analyse it. conditions are anything the travel industry needs. gain a complete picture the skies.
avalanche of information. Great data scientists can but normal.
test various hypotheses According to
How reliable is historical using techniques such Skyscanner, travel
data for predicting the as statistical modelling searches were up in
future? and machine learning to April, week-on-week, by
Cirium is the go- generate possible future double digits in all major
to source for travel scenarios quite reliably. markets and mostly
data, including airline Past data helps centred around national
schedules. We have the establish a baseline for holidays. Skyscanner
most comprehensive potential outcomes in survey data shows that
data set of historical a given scenario and travellers are increasingly
schedules in the world, determine how likely optimistic about the
which go back 16 years – each of those outcomes safety of travelling
as well as 11 months into is to occur. A business six months from now
the future. can then make informed and feel better about
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 7 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19
INSIGHT: CIRIUM
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The second element of earlier this year, we have verification and scientific What trends are you work from home. airlines and the air travel
recovery that the industry the capabilities to track extrapolation processes. seeing for the future of We could start to market seek to embrace
needs to address is how up to 120,000 flights This is what transforms aviation in the age of see a very different digital transformation to
to tackle the inevitable in granular detail per big data into smart data. coronavirus? airline sector. Our teams become more efficient.
downturn in consumer day. We track global When new data Based on IATA’s have been tracking the We may also see
confidence once commercial flight activity enters our system, we prediction of a 48 per commercial passenger changes in traveller
lockdown restrictions are in real time by processing compare overlapping cent drop in air traffic this jets in service and in behaviour as social
lifted globally. This means more than 100 million sources to select the year, we are projecting storage in recent months distancing becomes
demand forecasting flight updates in total most accurate and that we will initially see and their analysis shows the new normal for
is likely to become per day and maintain an reliable source. Then, at least seven years of that of some 23,000 the industry. Greater
the next challenge for archive of flight activity we format the data passenger traffic growth aircraft in service at the hesitancy to engage with
data modelling. worldwide. according to globally wiped out in 2020. We’ll start of 2020, as many services requiring human
Drawing from respected best practices see a drop in demand as a third could be contact could see a
What kind of data are commercial flight and standards, using for leisure and corporate immediately surplus rise in self-serve tools,
you gathering and schedules, real-time techniques such as travel, as disposable to requirements. robotics and automated
analysing in relation to flight activity and the machine learning to income falls and former Artificial intelligence processes to avoid
the travel industry, and global aircraft fleet, most generate the most business travellers, or (AI) will play a more unnecessary contact
from which sources? of our data comes from complete picture. “road warriors”, learn to pivotal role than ever, as when travelling.
Cirium has an unrivalled trusted relationships If you combine this
data platform – the with airlines, airports, with the talent at Cirium,
Cirium Core – which global distribution you create advanced
houses data from more service providers views of data which
than 2,000 sources from and international become actionable
all corners of the aviation government bodies. insights for the user. It’s
and air travel industry. people who make big
We have direct data How do you turn big data truly smart and
feeds of schedules from data into smart data? that’s why we employ
more than 900 global Sourcing data is just some of the best people
airlines and work with the beginning of the from all backgrounds,
over 90 per cent of the process. To ensure the from astronomers to
world’s top 50 carriers. accuracy, predictability, tech giant alumni and
When air travel and fullness of our airline network planners
isn’t restricted, and is data, we invest heavily to aviation finance
operating like it was in data cleansing, consultants.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 8 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19
Mart
InTenta
Adobe Stock
Photo by Moby
DOMESTIC
SANCTITY
For many people, the best way to guarantee
a safe, hassle-free break will be to stay in
their country of residence – renting holiday
homes and setting off on road trips
By Rose Dykins
DOMESTIC SANCTITY
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P
assport-free holidays Domestic tourism (both the government eased Camper van sales are
will be the norm overnight and day trips) lockdown restrictions. also booming. “We have
for 2020. This is for in England contributed Prior to this, there were seen a dramatic rise in
a number of reasons: £80 billion in 2019 but staggeringly cheap deals inquiries,” Steve Lumley, of
border closures and arrival coronavirus is expected to on flights within the CamperVantastic, told The
quarantines, the fear of knock £22 billion off that country – nicknamed “bok Times in May.
getting ill abroad, concern figure in 2020, according to choy” tickets by the media, Some tourist boards
about having to negotiate Patricia Yates, acting chief because they were the are thinking up ways to
airports and planes, and executive at Visit Britain. same price as vegetables. encourage domestic
limited disposable income. She said: “To get British Countries with large travellers to book trips to
Some commentators tourism up and running domestic flight networks boost the economy. In
are using the word this summer, you’re going may initially experience Poland, the government
“staycation” to describe to need that domestic similar deals from airlines has been mulling giving
domestic tourism, but audience. [But} I think the to encourage travellers to each citizen vouchers
what Globetrender is worrying thing is the lack return to the skies. worth 1,000 zloty (about
referring to is hitting of confidence in the British However, where US$238) to be spent on
the road and going public about travelling.” possible, Globetrender domestic holidays.
somewhere different – Among some segments predicts travellers will Thailand has launched
without having to leave of society, however, there choose to go by road in a “We Love Thailand”
the country. is huge pent-up demand the virus-free safety of campaign, promoting
France and Greece for travel. During lockdown, their own car. Tapping into national attractions, while
are allowing domestic operator Luxury Cotswold this, US-based startup New Zealand is pinning
holidays from June. In Rentals told Globetrender RoadTravel is now offering its hopes on recouping
England, hotels, campsites it has seen a 166 per cent “road trip packages” – lost dollars from inbound
and tourist attractions year-on-year increase in curated itineraries, trip tourists by getting locals
might be allowed to open traffic to its website, and planning features and to explore what’s on their
their doors from July a 138 per cent rise in the accommodation booking doorstep. However, care
too, although many may number of enquiries. powered by sites such as will have to be made to
choose not to until later In China, during its May booking.com. ensure hotspots are not
in the year, depending bank holiday weekend, Founder Nikita Dedik overrun, which is what
on what social distancing more than 50 million says: “The crisis not happened when the US
measures need to be domestic trips were only hasn’t hurt us but reopened Yellowstone
implemented. made in two days after so far it’s helped us.” National Park.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 10 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19Mart
InTenta
Kempinski
Photo by Moby
GERMAPHOBIA
Extreme hygiene measures for hotels and airlines
will be vital to restoring public confidence, but
older, more vulnerable generations will be wary
By Marisa CannonGERMAPHOBIA
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I
n 2019, supermodel boarding via the back of so far as to recommend
Naomi Campbell the plane (from row one that crew wear disposable
published a video onwards), and removing nappies to avoid potential
detailing the cleaning in-flight magazines. infection through use of
routine she undertakes Emirates has banned the lavatory.
every time she boards all cabin baggage beyond In the longer term,
a plane, where she briefcases, handbags expect cabins to
systematically disinfects laptops and baby items, incorporate new physical
everything from the and is mandating the use distancing designs, such
armrests and in-flight of gloves and masks, while as the new Janus seat
entertainment control to also giving passengers from Aviointeriors, which
the window. “I do not care blood tests at the airport to features a double-S-
what people think of me,” check for antibodies. shaped wraparound
she declared, wiping down Etihad is trialling plastic barrier between
the shell of her seat with a Elenium contactless passengers. and drink to guests disinfectant and ultraviolet may now be considered
Dettol wipe. kiosks that measure Hotels, meanwhile, will in quarantine, while light technology to sanitise potential vectors.
In the age of Covid-19, passengers’ temperature, be looking to redefine Millennium Hotels and keys and mobile devices. So too could beach
Campbell’s eccentric heart rate and respiratory the way they interact with Resorts in Singapore (Globetrender also hopes deckchairs and umbrellas,
behaviour will be rate, and Hong Kong and guests in order to minimise is currently benefiting pillows will be washed and we might see the
vindicated, and we’ll all Tokyo airports are giving touch points. The Four from early investment in between stays.) introduction of reservation
be following suit once the rapid Covid-19 tests to Seasons Hotel in New York delivery robots, which can Increased hygiene systems and time slots
airways are open. passengers arriving home City has started performing call for an elevator, find concerns may well cause for different age groups
Following the example from high-risk areas. virtual check-in and check- the right room and contact travellers to think twice visiting the seaside. Italian
of Qantas, British Airways, IATA has issued outs, and has removed guests on the phone. about sharing economy plastics manufacturer
Etihad and Delta, most guidelines that state cabin minibars, excess hangers Deep cleaning between platforms such as Airbnb Nuova Neon Group 2 has
airlines will be taking crew should be dressed and linens. It has also stays will become and Uber, whose models developed designs for 20
extreme measures to in full personal protective suspended restaurant, bar the norm, with Accor, are predicated on rentals sqm plexiglass cubicles
increase hygiene on board equipment (PPE), including and room service for the Radisson, Kempinski, that enjoy a vast number to separate beachgoers.
by using electrostatic plastic gowns over their foreseeable future. Hilton and Marriott all of prior users. Despite “We’ve already received
spraying to kill germs uniforms, goggles, masks Since March 2020, launching initiatives Airbnb’s new hygiene several inquiries from
and viruses in the cabin, and gloves. The Civil L’hotel Island South in to promote cleaning guidelines for hosts and beach operators and
for example, as well as Aviation Administration Hong Kong has deployed practices such as the guests, holiday homes and restaurants,” says owner
handing out sanitising kits, of China has even gone AI robots to serve food use of hospital-grade the furnishings inside them Claudio Ferrari.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 12 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19Mart
InTenta
Adobe Stock
Photo by Moby
WILDERNESS
SEEKING
As consumers flock to natural environments with plenty of
fresh air, escaping to the great outdoors will replace city
breaks and crowded resorts as the holiday of choice
By Rose DykinsWILDERNESS SEEKING
Birdbox
I
n the social distancing all-inclusive resort,” says by mid-May, these were Rewilding and
era, nature tourism will Freyr Thor, Yonder’s CEO starting to open again. conservation holidays –
rocket in popularity. and co-founder. “As we Next spring, AutoCamp where travellers play an
Travellers will crave recover from Covid-19, will be opening a luxury active part in helping an
wide open spaces and people will be looking for glampsite in Cape ecosystem return to its
inspiring views after alternatives that offer them Cod featuring custom- natural state – will also be
being homebound, a more natural, sustainable designed Airstream a hit. Plus, the funds will
and escaping to the and healthier way of trailers. be much needed after a
wilderness will feel safer travelling and living.” Over in Bhutan, the only considerable hiatus.
than visiting crowded Camping and glamping carbon-negative country For example,
cities or clubbing will also attract new in the world, Six Senses Argentina’s Iberá Estuaries
destinations. The devotees. According to has created a new hotel – the world’s largest
restorative benefits of peer-to-peer RV rental lodge set among blue freshwater wetlands –
being in nature also make marketplace RVshare, it pine trees. Treehouses will has four campsites for
it the ideal choice of trip has achieved its highest also be big business – up visitors, the income from
to recuperate, dose up on recorded booking in Perthshire, Scotland, the which helps finance the
vitamin D and process the numbers in company Treehouses at Lanrick will reintroduction of native
chaos of Covid-19. history, with a 650 per cent debut in September with species, including jaguar
Ready to capitalise on rise in RV rental bookings self-catering facilities. cubs. (The country has
this trend, Yonder offers since early April. At a time of continuous, suspended commercial
travellers the chance to However, sites will anxiety-inducing media flights in and out of the
book stays in cabins and at need to maintain high coverage of the pandemic, country until at least
farms and ranches across standards of cleanliness nature provides true September, however.)
the US, as well as try when it comes to shared sanctuary. Committed to Inventive cities are
outdoor experiences such facilities, as well as limit the preservation of “quiet”, also trying to introduce
as horse bonding and the number of guests Quiet Parks International more green space
mushroom hunting. “In the booking and introduce is a nonprofit organisation – Copenhagen, for
past, much of our vacation greater distances between that seeks to protect instance, is building an
time has been spent in tents or yurts. “acoustically pristine archipelago of artificial
contrived environments During lockdown, environments” across the islands, only accessible
shut off from the natural national parks throughout globe. As urban noise to swimmers and sailers,
world – a cruise ship, a the UK and US, for increases, silence will be which can be used for
theme park, a casino or an example, were closed, but the new wellness. picnics and fishing.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 14 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19Mart
InTenta
Adobe Stock
Photo by Moby
AIRLINE HUNGER GAMES
With airline revenues expected to plunge as
much as £314 billion in 2020, carriers around
the world will be doing everything they can to
win back passengers
By Jenny SouthanAIRLINE HUNGER GAMES
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I
t’s a bloodbath out passenger numbers to be
there. Airlines are 50 per cent lower by the
fighting for survival end of 2020.
in a way they’ve never Airline Hunger Games
had to before, with is a trend because it
fleets almost entirely refers to the way in which
grounded around the carriers are going to be
world. British Airways is in trying to manoeuvre their
redundancy consultations way out of the crisis over
with 12,000 staff and the coming months. This
exiting Gatwick; Virgin summer, travel bans will
Atlantic is cutting a third start to be lifted country
of its workforce, while by country, but reviving
owner Richard Branson is route networks and
selling a US$500 million reassuring passengers
stake in Virgin Galactic to that it is safe to fly will be
bail it out. a major challenge. Boeing
Easyjet experienced CEO David Calhoun has
a major hack of nine said that air traffic won’t in high places can help It has been suggested aircraft isn’t practical the all airlines want to
million passengers’ data even be back to 25 per players endure, but they that airlines could stop way it is on the ground,” capitalise on, allowing
in May, while its founder cent by September and a will need clever tactics to selling middle seats to Qantas medical director them to inflate prices and
Stelios Haji-Ioannou has major US airline will “most outlive the competition. create “social distancing” Dr Ian Hosegood said. start recouping some of
been quarrelling with its likely” go out of business. During lockdown, in the air. However, this He added: “Given the low their losses. Seat sales
“scoundrel” board about The world’s second- airlines were offering will mean they will only transmission risk onboard, to stimulate bookings
cancelling an order for oldest airline, Avianca, early seasonal flight sales be able to sell about two we don’t believe it’s will always be a useful
107 planes from Airbus. which was based out of with discounted tickets thirds of tickets, and with necessary.” The likelihood tactic though. Sadly, the
Ryanair boss Michael Bogota, was driven to to help them get money margins tight, this will is airlines will sell every days of smiling crew and
O’Leary has been bankruptcy in May, and in the bank on forward force them to at least seat they can, and G&Ts will be behind us
outspoken in saying plans others will follow unless bookings, but as flights double fares. passengers will have for the time being. Flying
for quarantining flyers they can secure financial start taking off again, Qantas is an example of to make do with sitting will be sanitised, tense
and social distancing help. Just like in the book- we can expect a shift an airline that says it won’t apart if space allows. and utilitarian, so travel
on planes are “idiotic”, turned-film The Hunger towards price hikes to be blocking out seats. Pent-up demand will companies need to make
and ultimately expects Games, those with friends make routes viable. “Social distancing on an no doubt be something it worth the effort.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 16 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19CIRIUM AIRLINE DATA
The impact of Covid-19 on the aviation industry, in numbers
Air travel almost came to a halt in spring 2020 – what does recovery look like?
£7.9 trillion WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE FLEET IF TRAFFIC RETURNS IN 2021?*
(POTENTIAL TRAFFIC GROWTH & ITS IMPACT ON AIRCRAFT FLEETS)
contribution to global GDP from travel and tourism industry
No surplus
If 80% growth**
Before COVID-19 After COVID-19 430
outbreak outbreak surplus jets***
If 60% growth
If 40% growth 3,340
Compound Drop in total surplus jets***
Annual Growth passenger traffic
6.6% Rate of passenger -52.9% as of March 2020
traffic over the compared to a
If 60% growth 6,250
surplus jets***
past 10 years year ago
*Assuming load factor recovers to 70%
**80% growth from where we currently are
***Figures include new deliveries
CAPACITY CHANGES YEAR-ON-YEAR BY REGION
80% GLOBAL FLEET STORY
reduction in capacity by the end of April on a daily basis compared to 2019 START OF 2020 NOW
US domestic Intra-European China domestic In-service In-service by
Fleet highlights
fleet 2020 end of May
23,710 9,056
Parked fleet 6% global fleet 59% global fleet
Single-aisle aircraft
being tracked in 14,000 4,560
mid Feb May real-time
18%
76% reduction 89% reduction
reduction Twin-aisle aircraft
being tracked in 4,000
75% real-time 835
Note: All references to ‘now’ are equal to accurate stats on the 29th May 2020 reduction
Source: Cirium Core, IATA
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 17 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19Mart
InTenta
Adobe Stock
Photo by Moby
ISOLATION
VACATIONS
From private jet transfers and charter yachts,
to bubble hotels and desert islands, human-
free locations and experiences will be the
new luxury to charge for
By Jenny SouthanISOLATION VACATIONS
Copenhagen Islands
M
any travellers the coast of Malta.) personal chef (ordered Western Massachusetts, Villas company is Meanwhile, the
will be dreaming Setting the trend for remotely via iPad), which costs US$38,000 providing the elite with Seaside Finolhu has
of hedonistic “quarantine hideouts” is 24/7 health monitoring a day (including meals private jets (via partner unveiled the Maldives’
getaways in the sun, Le Bijou hotel in Zurich, and even in-room and activities) and has 24 Bookajet) to take them to first Beach Bubble room
with parties, drinking and which started offering coronavirus testing. rooms. Similarly, the Cape their destination, as well – a transparent dome on
dining. However, travel luxury apartments with In the US, wealthy Arundel Inn in Maine as hotel-style service and the shore with a double
in the age of coronavirus “Covid-19 Service” as groups are looking to rent charges US$19,000 a bespoke travel insurance bed and bathroom (a step
will mean the majority part of the package; this out entire hotels, such week for 14 bedrooms from Lloyd’s of London. up from Italy’s proposed
will be seeking Isolation included food delivery, as Relais & Châteaux’s with sea views. Hotel brands such plexiglass beach
Vacations, either as a meals cooked by a Blantyre country resort in In Europe, The Greek as Four Seasons and cubicles).
couple or with close Aman, which offer For those on less
friends and family in private residences with lavish budgets, many
places devoid of crowds. butlers on-site, can also hotels will be trying to
This means popular expect to do well, as create less crowded
beaches, home-share can companies that offer settings by only selling
rentals, large resorts, private yacht charters. half their room inventory,
and busy cities will all be New for 2020 is a while self-catering
low on the desirability company called Meridian cottages, treehouses,
scale, while private villas, Adventure Sail, which is tents and caravans
boats and boutique a private members’ club will all be available at
hotels (all with excellent for “meaningful, exclusive more affordable price
cleaning standards), and voyages”. points (also ideal for
quiet coastal, lakeside, In the Maldives, the those rushing to book a
mountain and rural ultimate in seclusion domestic holiday).
locations will be scoring has to be taking over Innovation will be
high. Not to mention an entire island – Sun rewarded at the lower
helicopter transfers, hotel Siyam Resorts recently end of the scale too
takeovers and island announced that for – consider Norway’s
buy-outs, for those that US$1 million for 15 days Birdbox cabins that host
can afford them. (VistaJet, and up to 50 guests, just two people and can
for example, is offering visitors can book one of be placed in pristine
private jet-to-yacht two islands (Iru Veli or natural environments with
transfers for moorings off Vilu Reef). minimal footprint.
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ANTI-VIRAL
ARRIVALS
Whether it is through quarantines, air bridges,
airport testing or thermal scanning, the pressure
will be on authorities to make sure outsiders
don’t bring in new cases of Covid-19
By Marisa CannonANTI-VIRAL ARRIVALS
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Greece’s public health was predicted to rake in should rely on Bluetooth
body plans to create US$700 billion but is now technology and be inter-
“quarantine hotels” for only on track for US$447 operable across borders
visitors who test positive billion). Tourism revenue in as well as across operating
while in the country, and Europe will likely drop from systems.”
will issue health certificates US$200 billion in 2019 to Nations that responded
to passengers within 72 US$124 billion in 2020. quickly to the outbreak
hours of their arrival. The European will be the first to open
These measures Commission has issued their borders, with some
are unlikely to entice guidelines on how neighbouring states
travellers, with an IATA countries might reopen making plans to allow
survey finding that 86 per its borders, suggesting “a people to move freely.
cent were “somewhat or phased and co-ordinated From mid-May, citizens
very concerned about approach that starts by in Latvia, Lithuania and
being quarantined while lifting restrictions between Estonia could travel
travelling”, while 69 per areas or member states between the Baltic states,
cent “would not consider with sufficiently similar although anyone from
travelling if it involved a 14- epidemiological situations”. beyond is required to
day quarantine period”. These so-called “air quarantine for two weeks.
A
irlines and certificates”, while Turkey should not issue immunity Another deterrent might bridges” could be an Australia and New
governments and Thailand have said passports, as there is “no be heightened racial alternative to quarantining. Zealand have agreed to a
around the world they will ask visitors to evidence” that people intolerance, with reports of Members of the EU are trans-Tasman travel zone.
are clamouring for show medical certificates who have recovered from coronavirus-related attacks also allowing Covid-19 In the Mediterranean,
solutions to make travel declaring they have tested coronavirus are protected and Africans in China tracing apps to operate Israel, Greece and Cyprus
safe again, and while negative for coronavirus. against a second infection. being turned away from across borders so citizens are in talks over a “tourism-
immunity passports might In parts of China, WeChat The US, Spain and Hong hotels and restaurants, can be alert to possible safe zone”, with the aim to
sound like the plot twist of and Alipay have issued Kong are among some blamed for carrying the infection while travelling. partially open borders. It’s
a dystopian novel, there’s citizens with a coloured of the countries that have so-called “second wave” In a statement, the clear that any reopening
been talk around whether health code that dictates instated temporary 14-day of coronavirus. Commission said: “Such will be gradual, and
they might serve as a way where they can travel. quarantines for arrivals, This year, 1.1 billion fewer tracing apps must be governments are prepared
of reigniting tourism. Chile However, the World while airports worldwide trips are expected to be voluntary, transparent, to shut down travel
was the first country to Health Organization has including Heathrow are made globally (the global temporary, cybersecure, permissions as soon as the
push ahead with “release said that governments testing thermal screening. travel and tourism industry using anonymised data, virus resurfaces.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 21 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19DESTINATION OPENINGS
from July. The idea is to Switzerland with the aim starting with flights from
With lockdowns test out social distancing of allowing free travel with the US. Visitors will need to
easing and travel measures, a new Hi+ Card other European nations take a Covid-19 test within
AUSTRALIA health passport and a from mid-June, if the 48 hours of arriving.
bans lifting, these
AND NEW ZEALAND track-and-trace app. Covid-19 situation allows.
will be some of the
Prime ministers Scott SPAIN
first countries to Morrison and Jacinda CHINA GREECE LITHUANIA/LATVIA/ This year,
start welcoming Ardern have made plans to China has Greece has ESTONIA Spain won’t
visitors from introduce a “trans-Tasman announced had low With fewer than 150 achieve the 84 million
abroad in mid-2020 travel bubble” for travellers a bilateral agreement to infection rates and hopes deaths between them, international visitors it
By Marisa Cannon between Australia and allow healthy travellers to open borders by July these three Baltic states did in 2019 but it will be
New Zealand, although free movement with South 1. There will be random were the first in Europe to welcoming back tourists
a 14-day quarantine will Korea, while negotiations coronavirus testing for establish their own “travel from July 2020.
likely be required. New with Singapore and Japan arrivals and hotels likely to bubble”. Neighbouring
Zealand-Pacific corridors for a similar arrangement be restricted to 50 per cent Finland and Poland have TURKEY
are also a possibility. are in the works. occupancy. been approached to join The Turkish
. government
AUSTRIA FRANCE ICELAND PORTUGAL is hoping to start the
Austria is Tourism Foreign Less affected holiday season for foreign
opening to to France travellers will by the travellers from mid-June,
health certificate carriers will initially start from be able to enter Iceland pandemic than Italy and although hotels opened
from Liechtenstein, Switzerland and Germany from June 15 providing Spain, Portugal will be to domestic tourists at the
Switzerland, Germany, the by June 15. Health they test negative for the opening up to tourism end of May.
Czech Republic, Slovakia certificates will be required virus on arrival or present a from June 15, with Easyjet
and Hungary on June 15. for entry, with the option of recent health certificate. flights from the UK to VIETNAM
14 days of quarantine on Lisbon and Porto. With just 270
CANARY arrival if this is not possible. ITALY cases and no
ISLANDS Italy is SAINT LUCIA deaths from coronavirus,
The Canary GERMANY opening The Vietnam has restarted
Islands are part of a In mid-May, borders in early June Caribbean domestic flights and is in
UN World Tourism Germany although social distancing island will be reopening to talks with China and South
Organization pilot scheme agreed to reopen borders requires beach umbrellas tourism in a “responsible Korea over reciprocal safe
to start welcoming visitors to France, Austria and to be five metres apart. manner” from June 4, travel zones.
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SUSTAINABILITY
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PARADOXES
Although the pandemic has given the Earth a chance to
heal, the travel industry is at a cross-roads when it comes to
prioritising money-making over environmental conservation
By Marisa CannonSUSTAINABILITY PARADOXES
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that would limit air travel reverse the sector’s rapid “breather” to maintain
and reduce emissions, emissions growth.” and go further in their
while spokesperson The reality is that environmental and social
for Airlines4Europe colossal revenue losses commitments. The
Jennifer Janzen said: may well leave airlines unpolluted blue skies
“We definitely don’t need with little option but to and birdsong are likely to
new taxes right now. It discard offset plans. have struck a chord with
doesn’t make any sense “Any sound business will many, and it could be a
whatsoever to burden prioritise their existing promising moment for
airlines and passengers liabilities and payroll over companies advocating a
with higher prices.” voluntary investments in more considered approach
But experts and future sustainable aviation to travel.
campaigners have called fuel volume,” says Adam Proponents of slow
for “stringent conditions” Klauber, a technical travel may well see
aligned with the Paris advisor at the Rocky greater interest in their
Agreement on any airline Mountain Institute. philosophy, where
bailout, as well as support One boon for airlines is travellers take longer
to help workers affected the plummeting oil price, trips to more unusual
re-skill. In a letter to UK but this could also deter destinations, reached by
T
he headline of a down 58 per cent since as soon as the global chancellor Rishi Sunak, a them from investing in alternative transport such
recent news story the outbreak and global economy jerks back to group of 26 civil society more sustainable, long- as trains. Globetrender
in The Independent levels of nitrogen dioxide life, the respite that the groups wrote: “Public term solutions, such hopes that travellers
read: “Coronavirus could at record lows. About planet has enjoyed will be money must be used as expensive biofuels and industry leaders will
trigger biggest fall in eight in ten flights globally undone. As governments to address social and (Lufthansa wants to take responsibility for
global carbon dioxide have been grounded and tussle to revive ailing environmental priorities, as make fuel from sunlight carbon offsetting as a
since Second World previously tourist-clogged industries, environmental well as economic needs.” and air) or cleaner, fuel- bare minimum, as well
War, scientists say.” beaches and jam-packed initiatives may well take a Meanwhile, Transport efficient aircraft. as doubling down on
One of the few benefits streets have been left back seat. and Environment aviation The question now up reducing plastic waste,
of the pandemic has eerily empty, giving wildlife At the Airlines4Europe manager Andrew for debate is whether which sadly has rocketed
been the environmental greater freedom to roam summit in March, CEO of Murphy has called for travel brands will scramble because of demand for
bounceback we have where it pleases. Air France-KLM Benjamin “a green transition by to return to normalcy bottles of hand sanitiser,
witnessed, with daily The silver lining is, of Smith asked governments linking aid to taxes and once the pandemic lifts, surgical masks and
emissions in the EU course, temporary, and to delay upcoming policies greener fuels which will or be galvanised by this takeaway food containers.
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UNPRECEDENTED
FLEXIBILITY
For jet setters tempted to swap the security of home for a trip
abroad, travel companies will be encouraging bookings with
free cancellations, no change fees and status extensions
By Marisa CannonUNPRECEDENTED FLEXIBILITY
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T
he fallout from help identify the flexible
cancelled hotel offerings.”
bookings has Loyalty scheme
presented the travel redemptions will be more
sector with a crisis unlike important than ever, as
anything it has seen travellers take greater
before. Companies have caution when parting with
responded in a variety of their money. Although
ways, from issuing credit brands might want to limit
notes to upfront refunds, loyalty redemptions after
and while UK travellers such a long stint without
are legally entitled to revenue, it’s true that
refunds within 14 days, customers will return to
the reality is that many companies they trust, and
operators are buckling increasing their buying
under the strain of such power and opportunities
seismic revenue loss. to earn points at such
In an open letter the term of refund credit Southwest Airlines, which In the future, prepaid offers on third- a volatile time could
to customers, Mark notes,” he wrote. went even further to customers will be less party websites being so cement their loyalty.
Tanzer, CEO of the UK When this crisis does extend the usual year inclined to book travel popular anymore.” But Hyatt’s World of Hyatt
travel association ABTA, pass, we can expect that passengers have to requiring a deposit, and now, third parties such as credit card partnership
asked them for flexibility to see much greater use their travel credits are likely to exercise Expedia are responding with US bank Chase has
while it holds out for demand for flexibility in until June 30, 2021. Hilton greater scrutiny over an to this demand for suspended its forfeiture
government support. booking policies, and and Marriott are also operator’s cancellation flexibility. Global PR policy, where cardholders
“We fully understand more travellers booking allowing guests to cancel policy. Founder of director Nisreene Atassi lose their points after
and sympathise with the direct with operators to reservations at no charge, private travel club Little says: “Expedia is working two years of inactivity,
frustration that many ensure this. In the wake while Airbnb has agreed to Emperors Rebecca hard to enhance our until December 31. Hilton
customers may be feeling. of coronavirus, nearly either refund cancellations Masri says: “People user experience so that has also announced that
But if companies are all airlines have waived or issue travel credit, won’t mind paying a little refundable hotels are Hilton Honors members
forced into bankruptcy, change fees temporarily, providing guests can show extra for the comfort more prominent when due to have their status
it will not only destroy bringing into relief those supporting documentation in knowing that they searching. Just look for downgraded will receive
livelihoods but extend the with pre-existing no- that their stay was made can cancel should they our ‘free cancellation’ an extension through
refund delays far beyond fee policies, such as impossible by coronavirus. need to. I can’t imagine messaging throughout to March 31, 2021.
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Kruger Shalati
DREAM TRIP PLANNING
Photo by Moby
After an extended period of being grounded, bored
and frustrated consumers will be ready to invest in
thrilling, once-in-a-lifetime adventures
By Rose DykinsDREAM TRIP PLANNING
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N
ext year and 2022 invest their budget in less itineraries and tours to
will be the years frequent, experience-rich, capture the imagination
for dream trips low-impact trips that align of grounded travellers,
(for those who can afford with their values. tempting them to take
them), reflecting huge They will probably the plunge and book
pent-up demand for travel stay abroad for longer something extraordinary.
after drawn-out restrictions periods and even take During lockdown in the
on freedom. exotic sabbaticals (a trend UK, Kuoni launched a new
Living through a Globetrender predicted in Wildlife of India tour for
pandemic has sparked a its Future of Luxury Travel 2021, a 12-night trip to two
re-evaluation of people’s report). We will see modest of India’s lesser-visited
priorities and attitudes. For mini-breaks swapped national parks that inspired
many of those confined for blow-out bonanzas Rudyard Kipling’s The
to their homes during after summer 2020 was Jungle Book.
lockdown, it has been a “cancelled”. Optimistically, Atlas
time to make plans. “People are using this Ocean Voyages is a “next-
Zina Bencheikh, time to dream up the kind gen cruise line” debuting
managing director of big bucket-list trips its first 196-passenger
EMEA for Intrepid Travel, you never normally get expedition ship next year.
told Good Housekeeping: around to planning,” says It says that being a new, Taking the time to no less than eight time has been on pause, the
“In 2021, the top three Tom Marchant, co-founder small, boutique player really indulge in travel zones and 6,200 miles of Kruger Shalati Train on
destinations our customers of Black Tomato. “We in the decimated cruise will be compensation for frozen wilderness. The first the Bridge (pictured on
are re-booking are Peru, are seeing this reflected sector could prove an time spent under house steam-powered winter trip previous page) is set to
Ecuador – mainly driven in recent bookings to advantage, as it will be arrest. With this in mind, from Golden Eagle, the debut at the end of 2020.
by the Galapagos – Argentina for this winter’s able to “ensure a safe the leisurely pace and journey will offer sleeper It’s a luxury boutique hotel
and Antarctica.” solar eclipse; to Iceland environment for cruise cultural immersion of cars, butler service and housed within a stationary
Needless to say, the to see the Northern lights guests from day zero”. It luxury rail itineraries means an onboard doctor, while steam train, anchored
crisis has also been a and to places like Angama will avoid crowded, mass- they are likely to thrive. stop-offs will include permanently on the
stark reminder not to take Mara in Kenya for the market destinations and For example, launching Sretensk – one of the most Shalati Bridge in South
travel for granted. Just as ultimate safari trip.” instead appeal to travellers in February 2021, Golden remote towns in Sibera – Africa’s Kruger National
consumers are turning Like Black Tomato, with adventurous streaks Eagle Luxury Trains’ 22- and Irkutsk, known as the Park. Guests can admire
away from fast fashion, other companies are with its Patagonia and day Trans-Siberian Winter Paris of Siberia. wildlife below from the
tomorrow’s travellers will launching covetable new transatlantic journeys. Wonderland Trip traverses Although construction overhanging pool.
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INVOLUNTARY
UNDERTOURISM
With ‘overtourism’ a defining problem of the last
decade, the early 2020s will be about building
visitor numbers back up and recouping losses
By Jenny SouthanINVOLUNTARY UNDERTOURISM
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Nations World Tourism use this hiatus as a time or longer (they might
Organization (UNTWO) to construct new and have annual leave to use
has warned of an 80 per better business models. up), and combine it with
cent drop in international It is proving an remote working or even
arrivals for this year. opportunity for the a sabbatical. Younger
The industry is facing environment and millennials and Gen Zs
its worst crisis since wildlife to recover, (see page 42) will be
records began in 1950, for the atmosphere more carefree so may
meaning “Involuntary to re-oxygenate, for be ready to whizz off
Undertourism” is the town-planners to to Ibiza given the
new trend to contend improve infrastructure, smallest chance.
with. The UNTWO restaurants and hotels Overall, tourist boards
says that – worst-case to think more carefully will be working hard to
scenario – the Covid-19 about civic responsibility, win back a portion of
pandemic threatens the and the public to be the visitors they were
livelihoods of as many more discerning about expecting this year, even
as 120 million people how often they jump on if they have to rely on
who directly depend on a plane. bulking up earnings from
tourism for employment, Over the next year domestic travel.
as a result of the loss of or two, we can expect The big reset, though,
up to 1.1 billion tourists. older tourists to shun should in some ways be
This translates to a crowded places in favour considered a gift – the
L
ast year, one of the Venice banned big cruise According to the potential financial drop in of more remote, natural travel industry has an
biggest problems ships; four-hour time World Travel and Tourism tourism export revenues environments with lots opportunity to start from
the world faced was slots were implemented Council, 2020 was going of US$910 billion, to of fresh air. Weekend city scratch and operate
“overtourism”, whereby at Machu Picchu in Peru; to be a bumper year. US$1.2 trillion. breaks will be shelved, more responsibly. Greed
thousands of people and Amsterdam told Tourist destinations were While this is at least for the mid-term mustn’t be part of the
were descending daily outsiders to go to other predicted to achieve undeniably terrible, there (the hassle of flying and equation if it is to ensure
on ancient sites, beautiful parts of the Netherlands 1.6 billion international is some good coming the risk of contagion sustainable travel for the
beaches, quaint towns instead. Now, none arrivals globally, with out of the situation, and simply won’t be worth future but the immediate
and natural beauty spots, of that is relevant as spending providing ten it is important for those it). People will book trips priority will no doubt
and – basically – ruining everywhere is quiet and per cent to global GDP. working in the industry for a minimum of two be generating income
them. It was the year that empty. However, the United to all think creatively and weeks, if not a month whatever the cost.
GLOBETRENDER.COM – 30 – TRAVEL IN THE AGE OF COVID-19GLOBAL TOURISM DATA
Credit
THE 30 COUNTRIES THAT RELY MOST ON TOURISM Total T&T GDP as % of
Where is the place that relies most on tourism in the world? According to Rank Economy
total economy GDP
the World Travel and Tourism Council, it’s Macau, where more than 90 per
cent of its GDP comes from people coming to play in casinos and live the 1 Macau SAR, China 91.3
high life at glitzy hotels. 2 Aruba 73.6
The Covid-19 pandemic has decimated the global travel industry, but 3 UK Virgin Islands 57.0
some destinations are facing more of a crisis than others due to their 4 Maldives 56.6
economic reliance on tourism. 5 US Virgin Islands 55.5
To put this into perspective, income from tourism and travel represents 6 Bahamas 43.3
just nine per cent of the UK’s GDP and 8.6 per cent of the US’s (putting 7 Antigua and Barbuda 42.7
them in 93rd and 98th position, respectively, in the global rankings). 8 St Lucia 40.7
Here are the top 30 locations globally that will need an influx of big- 9 Grenada 40.5
spending visitors as soon as it is safe to welcome them… 10 Seychelles 40.5
11 Cape Verde 37.2
12 Belize 37.2
13 Anguilla 37.1
14 Dominica 36.9
15 Vanuatu 34.7
16 Fiji 34.0
17 Montenegro 32.1
18 Jamaica 31.1
19 Barbados 30.9
20 Other Oceania* 28.6
21 St Vincent and the Grenadines 28.6
22 St Kitts and Nevis 28.2
23 Cambodia 26.4
24 Georgia 26.3
25 Cayman Islands 25.2
[Data is from the World Travel and Tourism Council. It includes direct,
26 Philippines 25.3
indirect and induced impacts of travel and tourism]
27 Croatia 25.0
*Other Oceania includes American Samoa, Cook Islands, French Polynesia,
28 Former Netherlands Antilles 23.5
Guam, Marshall Islands, Micronesia (Federated States of), Nauru, New
29 Iceland 22.8
Caledonia, Niue, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Samoa and Tuvalu 30 Albania 21.2
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