WELFARE ITALIA FORUM 2019

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WELFARE ITALIA FORUM 2019
WELFARE ITALIA FORUM 2019
                                       Palazzo Venezia, Roma
                                martedì 3 e mercoledì 4 dicembre 2019

PRESENTAZIONE DI STEFANO SCARPETTA
                                                      #WIF2019

     © 2019 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. TUTTI I DIRITTI RISERVATI. Questo documento è stato ideato e preparato da The European House -
     Ambrosetti per il cliente destinatario; nessuna parte di esso può essere in alcun modo riprodotta per terze parti o da queste utilizzata, senza l’autorizzazione
     scritta di The European House - Ambrosetti. Il suo utilizzo non può essere disgiunto dalla presentazione e/o dai commenti che l’hanno accompagnato.
WELFARE ITALIA FORUM 2019
Welfare Italia Forum
                                  3-4 December 2019

        POLITICHE SOCIALI PER
        GESTIRE IL CAMBIAMENTO
        DEL MERCATO DEL
        LAVORO

Stefano Scarpetta
Direttore per l’Occupazione, il
Lavoro e le Politiche Sociali
WELFARE ITALIA FORUM 2019
I mega trends : non solo rivoluzione digitale

      Technology is changing the workplace
      Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots
700
600                                                            Populations are ageing
500                                                            Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
400                                                                           Italy
300
200
100
  0                                                                                               2015
        2005

        2013
        2006
        2007
        2008
        2009
        2010
        2011
        2012

        2014
        2015
        2016
        2017

       2021*
       2018*
       2019*
       2020*
      The world has become more integrated
  Share of business sector jobs sustained by consumers in
                      foreign markets
0,6                                                                                               2050
0,4
0,2
 0
       DEU ESP ITA GBR FRA CAN MEX AUS JPN USA                                                        2
La disoccupazione tecnologica: mito o
      realtà?
   Massive technological unemployment is unlikely, but
   many jobs will change and transitions will be difficult

Employment rates have risen       15% of jobs in Italy (14% in the
in most OECD countries            OECD) could be automated…

                              %
                                                 15%

                                  … but 36% more will change
                                  significantly (32% in the OECD)
           1990        2017

                                                 36%
Formazione continua: dalla retorica alla realtà

        Share of adults in each group that participated in education and training
                                       Italy, 2012
       60

       50                                                                                                                                 workers in
                                                 medium and high                                                                         larger firms
       40                                             wage                                                             permanent
                 prime age employed medium and high-
       30         (25-53)                skilled                 men
       20                                                                                                                        workers in
                                                                                                                       temporary  SMEs
                                                                                                     women
       10                                                                       low-wage
                  older (>54) unemployed low-skilled
         0

Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012, 2015).
Note: formal and non-formal job-related education and training; some data refers to all adults, others to workers only; low-skilled is
defined as reaching proficiency level 1 or below in literacy and numeracy in PIAAC; long-term unemployment is defined as being
                                                                                                                                                        4
unemployed 12 month or more; low-wage is defined as earning less than 60% of the national median income; SMEs are defined as
having less than 250 workers
Le forme di lavoro “atipiche” sono in crescita

Some countries have seen growth in non-standard forms of
employment, but standard employment remains the norm
             • Platform work as a person’s main job is still a limited
               phenomenon. In OECD countries it covers between
               0.5% and 3% of the workforce
             • Non-standard work represents over a third of total
               employment in the majority of OECD countries.
             • In Italy, 15% of dependent employees in Italy are on
               temporary contracts (OECD: 11%)
             • 20% of dependent employees work part-time
               (OECD: 15%)
             • 22% of workers are self-employed (OECD: 14%)
Il contratto di lavoro è la porta di accesso a
      misure di welfare e formazione

New forms of work have sometimes challenged definitions
of “employee”, “self-employment” and even “employer”

 • False self-employment: situations where
   working arrangements are essentially the           15.2% of the
   same as those of employees but individuals        self-employed
   are declared as self-employed in order to           in ITA are
   avoid regulations, taxes and unionisation           financially
                                                     dependent on
 • Grey zone: some workers will be genuinely           one client
   difficult to classify – they are self-employed,
   but share characteristics of dependent
   employees and so share vulnerabilities and
   a need for protection
Protezione sociale con profondi gaps nelle
   coperture
Social protection systems in many countries face
important legacy issues as well as some new challenges

In Italy 7% of jobseekers (active and
discouraged) received unemployment
benefits in 2016 (OECD average 24.3%)

                In some countries, workers in non-
                standard employment are 40-50% less
                likely to receive any form of income
                support when out of work
Gaps nelle coperture per i lavoratori
                                                        autonomi
                                                           Unemployment benefits                                                                       Old-age pensions
                                                  40                                                                                       40

                                                                                          Self employment in % of total employment, 2017
 Self employment in % of total employment, 2017

                                                  35                                                                                       35                         GRC
                                                                  GRC
                                                  30                                                                                       30

                                                  25              KOR                                                                      25                          KOR
                                                          ITA                                                                                           ITA
                                                  20                                                                                       20
                                                                   ESP
                                                  15                     GBR                                                               15                 GBR
                                                          FRA                                                                                                                FRA
                                                  10              DEU              AUS                                                     10   DEU               JPN
                                                          JPN
                                                       CAN                                                                                                     AUS CAN
                                                        USA                                                                                                         USA
                                                  5                                                                                         5
                                                                                                                                                                    EST*
                                                  0               EST*                                                                      0
                                                          No access Voluntary / same as                                                           Only Voluntary Partial Similar to
                                                                      partial employees                                                         voluntary at low         employees
                                                                                                                                                         earnings
                                                                                                                                                                                      8
* Data on incidence of self-employment is missing or incomplete. Sources: adapted from Whiteford and Haron (2018), Spasova et al. (2017), SSA and ISSA
(2017) and inputs provided by delegates of Working Party on Social Policy.
Diritti alle prestazioni e accesso concreto

             Baseline: past standard work                             Past non-standard (significant gap)                       Past non-standard (non-significant gap)

                                                                    A. Probability of receiving any benefits
   100
    80
    60
    40
    20
     0
             GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
    60                                                      B. Benefit generosity for recipients (% of median income)

    40

    20

      0
             GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
Notes: Overall benefit support package 2014-15. Out-of-work able-bodied individual in a low-income household without children and with:
• past “standard” work (mostly uninterrupted dependent employment during the two years preceding the reference period), and                                        9
• past “non-standard” work (mostly self-employed or interrupted dependent employment or part-time work).
Statistical significance is for a 90% confidence interval. Source: OECD calculations using EU-SILC panel data.
Diritti alle prestazioni vs accesso concreto

             Baseline: past standard work                             Past non-standard (significant gap)                       Past non-standard (non-significant gap)

                                                                    A. Probability of receiving any benefits
   100
    80
    60
    40
    20
     0
             GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
    60                                                      B. Benefit generosity for recipients (% of median income)

    40

    20

      0
             GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
Notes: Overall benefit support package 2014-15. Out-of-work able-bodied individual in a low-income household without children and with:
• past “standard” work (mostly uninterrupted dependent employment during the two years preceding the reference period), and                                        10
• past “non-standard” work (mostly self-employed or interrupted dependent employment or part-time work).
Statistical significance is for a 90% confidence interval. Source: OECD calculations using EU-SILC panel data.
Il Sistema di welfare del futuro: alcuni
    elementi di riflessione

• La corretta classificazione del rapporto di lavoro è
  essenziale
• Allargare elementi principali di protezione sociale ai
  lavoratori atipici e autonomi
• Riorganizzare e razionalizzare le risorse e gli strumenti
  (benefit monetari e servizi)
• Adeguare l’offerta dei servizi
• Garantire la portabilità dei contributi
• Aumentare, ottimizzare e integrare le basi informative
• Promuovere l’auto-responsabilizzazione
Grazie

For more information, contact:
stefano.scarpetta@oecd.org

Follow us on Twitter at
               @OECD_Social
               @stescarpetta

Read more about our work:
www.oecd.org/els
                                      12
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