What Hath They Wrought - Adrian Day - 2019 Vancouver Resource Investment Conf - Adrian Day Asset Management
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What Hath They Wrought Adrian Day – 2019 Vancouver Resource Investment Conf.
Balance Sheet Quintupled
Interest Rates Throughout History Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, BoE, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla “A History of Interest Rates”
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Source: The Regional Economist
“I trust that many of you are familiar with
the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the
moment you doubt whether you can fly,
you cease forever to be able to do it.’ Yes,
what we need is a positive attitude and
conviction. Indeed, each time central banks
have been confronted with a wide range of
problems, they have overcome the
problems by conceiving new solutions.”
-Haruhiko Kuroda
Governor of the Bank of Japan
Japan Growth Rate
Japan Money & Inflation Source: The Regional Economist
“there appears to be no
evidence that QE
works…to increase real
GDP.” -Stephen Williamson,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis▪ Made recovery abnormally slow
▪ Hurt savers
▪ Encouraged debt
▪ Reinforced deflationary tendencies
▪ Increased role in economy—target certain sectors for help
▪ Distorted global markets
▪ Encouraged financial engineering
▪ Encouraged corporate buy backs and go-private deals
▪ Kept alive zombie companies
▪ Compressed bank profits, constraining banks from lending
▪ Widened wealth gap
▪ Destroyed confidence in system, in elites who got it wrong
▪ leading to populismGlobal Debt Up to New High Source: GlobalGold.ch; IIF, BIS, Haver, U.S. Global Investors
Money Not Moving
Velocity of Money 1958 - 2017
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Gijsbert Groenewegen,
www.silverarrowpartners.comPaid not to Lend
Excess Reserves
“We may well at present be
seeing the first stirrings of
an increase in the inflation
rate – something that we
would like to happen.”
– Stanley Fischer, Fed Vice-ChairGlobal Rates Still Negative
United States 2.904
France -0.397
Germany -0.596
Spain -0.078
Portugal -0.115
Sweden -0.430
Netherlands -0.641
Switzerland -0.797
Japan -0.124
*2-year yieldsGold and Interest Rates Move Together
54.20
Source: IncrementumGold Beats Rates
Gold Beats Rates Inflation Rates Gold
What Will Happen When Rates Rise? Source: Meridian Macro
What Damage in Selling Source: Business Insider, SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
Gold Outperforms Stocks this Millennium Source: Bloomberg
Adrian Day is a well-known global newsletter writer and money manager. He is
not registered in Canada and unable to accept business from Canadian residents,
nor can he provide individual investment advice to such persons. If you wish to
contact him, please write P.O. Box 6643, Annapolis, MD 21401, U.S.A., email
AssetManagement@AdrianDay.com, phone 410-224-2037.
This is not a solicitation for business. Adrian Day, his staff, clients, and subscribers
may own securities mentioned herein. He may be buying or selling securities
discussed herein concurrently, before or after this seminar and may be acting for
clients in a manner contrary to implied recommendation at this seminar.You can also read
