Webinar 9 February 2021 - Devon Funds Management
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Webinar 9 February 2021
Vaccinations
% of population with at least 1 dose of COVID vaccine
For the
2 informed
Source: Centre for Disease Control & Prevention, John Hopkins
investor.
Global growth
GDP back to trend by 2022
For the
Source: MacroPolicy Perspectives, Refinitiv 3 informed
investor.
Australian growth
Getting back to work
For the
Source: Redward Associates 4 informed
investor.
Australian corporate earnings
Consensus expects ASX200 EPS to rebound 23% in FY21
For the
Source: UBS 5 informed
investor.
Style bias
Value to outperform as yield curve continues to steepen
For the
Source: Alpine Macro 6 informed
investor.
Trans-Tasman
Top overweights
Top Overweights Position (%)
ANZ 4.2%
National Australia Bank 4.1%
Ramsay Healthcare 2.5%
EBOS 2.2%
Fletcher Building 2.1%
BHP 2.1%
Aristocrat Leisure 2.1%
Freightways 1.8%
Spark New Zealand 1.7%
For the
7 informed
investor.Banks
Sector outlook improving
ASX 200 sectors: EPS growth FY20-21 Loan deferrals by Bank (% of total book)
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
CBA Westpac NAB ANZ
Jun-20 Dec-21
For the
Source: Macquarie 8 informed
investor.Fletcher Building
Upgrades ahead on residential exposure and cost out
Fletcher Building FY20 revenue exposure
FY20 H1 FY21 FY21 FY22
Australian Building consents ('000) 181 181 206 195
consensus 180 175
current 240
New Zealand Building consents ('000) 38 41 41 36
consensus 36 32
current 45
FY20 EBIT - $m 160
New Zealand Building consents
COVID Impact - $m 200
Provision Impact - $m 150
FBU Devon underlying EBIT ($m) 510.0 313 679.6 660.5
consensus 604.0 591.0
FBU P/E 14.3 14.1
Australian peers 21.7 20.3
discount -34% -31%
For the
9 informed
Source: Forsyth Barr, MST, Devon investor.BHP
Strong global macro recovery = positive for commodities
Iron ore & copper price Global steel demand
200 5
180 4.5
160
4
140
120 3.5
100 3
80 2.5
60
2
40
20 1.5
0 1
Iron ore - US$/t (LHS) Copper - Usc/lb (RHS)
BHP share price – A$
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15 For the
Source: Devon 10 informed
10
12-Feb-16 12-Feb-17 12-Feb-18 12-Feb-19 12-Feb-20 12-Feb-21 investor.Ramsay Healthcare
COVID-19 related backlog to lift elective surgery
Healthcare volumes Healthcare valuations
For the
Source: MST, Citi 11 informed
investor.Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
The Trans-Tasman portfolio is slightly underweight
Revenue trends year-to-date FY21 US COVID-19 active hospitalisations
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY20 4 mths FY21 H1 FY21 9 mths FY21
For the
Source: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Macquarie, Devon 12 informed
investor.INFORMATION AND DISCLAIMER: This document is not a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) under New Zealand law or under any other law. It is for information
purposes only and contains summarised information. Accordingly, this document neither purports to be exhaustive nor contains all of the information which a
prospective investor or the recipient may require to make an investment decision. This document does not contain all of the information which would otherwise be
required by New Zealand law or any other law to be disclosed in a PDS or similar disclosure document required under foreign law. Prospective investors should
inform themselves as to any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile
which might be relevant.
A PDS for the fund/s mentioned in this presentation is available free from Devon Funds Management Limited. Investors should read and understand the PDS for the
relevant fund(s) in which they invest and satisfy themselves they understand all the terms and conditions of investment in the fund/s. The information in this
document is not intended to be advice. In preparing this document, Devon Funds Management Limited did not take into account the investment objectives, financial
situation and particular needs of any particular person. Devon Funds Management Limited recommends that potential investors consult their financial adviser and
obtain professional financial advice on their individual requirements before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in any of the Devon Funds are subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment and
loss of income and capital invested. Neither Devon nor any related company of Devon, guarantees any particular rate of return on, or the performance of, the Devon
Funds, nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from the Devon Funds.
For the
informed
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