WHO WILL CHALLENGE TRUMP? A LOOK AT THE LIKELY 2020 DEMOCRATIC NOMINEES FOR PRESIDENT - AUBREY JEWETT, PHD UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ...

Who Will Challenge Trump? A Look at the
Likely 2020 Democratic Nominees for President

                   Aubrey Jewett, PhD
               University of Central Florida

The Democratic Party Presidential
  Primary and Caucus Schedule
  • The Democratic Party holds a
    series of primary and caucus
    elections to select 3768
    pledged delegates that will
    attend the national convention
    and help choose the party
    nominee for president.
  • These elections take place from
    February to June 2020 in all 50
    states, DC, and 5 territories.

Democratic Party
      Delegate Allocation
• Each state, district and territory is
  allotted a certain number of pledged
  delegates based on their size and
  support of Democratic party
  candidates.
• Delegates are distributed
  proportionally to any candidate who
  receives 15% of the vote in a state.
• If a candidate can win 1885 or more
  pledged delegates they have enough
  to secure the presidential
  nomination.

The Democratic Convention and Super Delegates

• At the convention, if no candidate
  receives a majority of pledged
  delegates on the first ballot then
  unpledged delegates get to vote.
• There are 764 unpledged delegates
  (party leaders and elected officials)   The 2020 Democratic convention will be July
  who are appointed.                      13-16 at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI.

• If these “superdelegates” vote then
  a candidates will need 2267 votes
  to win!

Who has Filed to Run for President?

 Record Number of Democrats File for             Only One Notable Republican has Filed
           Nomination                                to Run Against Donald Trump
• 24 “major” candidates have announced           • William Weld, former GOP governor of MA
  that they are running for the Democratic         (91-97), endorsed Obama in 2008,
  nomination and filed FEC paperwork -             libertarian candidate for VP 2016, socially
  that is the largest number in American           liberal & economically conservative
  history (17 Republicans ran in 2016)!
• A major candidates defined as: held
  public office; or been tracked by at least 5
  national polls; or received substantial
  media coverage; or has, or has raised,
  lots of money.
• More than 200 other Democrats have
  also filed FEC paperwork to run.

Biden Leads the Pack in National Polling

Some Early States Show a Closer Race: Iowa

Some Early States Show a Closer Race: NH

Some Early States Show a Closer Race: Nevada

One Early State Has a Large Biden Lead: SC

The Front Runner: Joe Biden (40%)
• Experience: Long time Senator from DE
  73-09; Vice President under Obama
• Pros: Electable! Well known! Connects
  with blue collar white Dems. Moderate.
  Detailed policy (especially foreign policy).
  Overcame personal tragedy.
• Cons: Older (78 if he takes office); Out of
  step with younger, minority, progressive
  Dems; “Handsy” with women; Prone to
  verbal gaffes; Ran for president twice
  before and lost!

Top Four Challenger (5%+): Bernie Sanders 16%
• Experience: Democratic Socialist; VT
  Congressman (91-07) and Senator
  (07-present); Ran for Pres 2016
• Pros: Excites the progressive base!
  Want wealth redistribution (higher
  minimum wage and taxes) and bigger
  social safety net. Almost beat Hillary
  Clinton in 2016
• Cons: Older (79 if he takes office);
  Low support among minorities and
  less with younger voters now; may
  scare off moderates in a general
  election; Peaked in 2016?

Top Four Challenger (5%+): Elizabeth Warren 8%
• Experience: MA Senator since 2013;
  Harvard Law Professor; Created
  Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
• Pros: Well known progressive populist;
  Reduce inequality, wealth tax on ultra-
  rich, college debt forgiveness and free
  college; Female candidate
• Cons: Has stumbled somewhat –
  peaked to early? Native American
  heritage DNA test in response to
  Trump’s “Pocahontas” insult did not go
  well.

Top Four Challenger (5%+): Kamala Harris 8%
• Experience: CA Senator since 2017; CA
  Attorney General 2011-17; DA San
  Francisco 04-11
• Pros: Woman of color (Indian
  mother/Jamaican father) & former
  prosecutor; Mainstream Democrat with
  a populist touch (may be moving left)
• Cons: Relatively new on the national
  stage; Some controversies (i.e. death
  penalty) when she was AG & DA in CA

Top Four Challenger (5%+): Pete Buttigeig 7%
• Experience: Mayor Pete of South Bend, IN
  since 2012; Degrees from Harvard and
  Oxford; Lt. in Naval reserves (deployed to
  Afghanistan while mayor)
• Pros: Married gay Christian; 37 year old
  millennial with lots of energy; Mainstream
  Democrat; Media Buzz; Midwest appeal
• Cons: Very little experience on the national
  stage; may have trouble connecting with
  black voters (“All lives matter” comment);
  hard to pronounce last name!
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STGsQ
  GkYoxM

In the Running (1-5%): Beto O’Rourke 4%
• Experience: TX Congressman 2013-19;
  Lost close race to GOP Ted Cruz for US
  Senate in 2018
• Pros: Youthful; Energetic; Media
  savvy; “Cool” factor; Prolific national
  fundraiser; Centrist/Liberal wing;
  Immigration reform and Climate
• Cons: Why is he running? (“I’m just
  born to be in it”); Viewed as
  “privileged”; “Buzz” may have peaked
  in Senate race; Past DUI

In the Running (1-5%): Cory Booker 2%
• Experience: US Senator from NJ since
  2013; Newark Mayor 2006-13
• Pros: Youthful African American; Very
  liberal voting record in Senate; Seeks to
  uplift and inspire; “Baby Bonds” for poor
  kids, criminal justice & marijuana reform
• Cons: Ties to Wall Street, Big “Pharma”, &
  Facebook; Supported tough on crime
  measures as young mayor and charter
  schools

In the Running (1-5%): Amy Klobuchar 1%
• Experience: US Senator from MN since
  2007; Hennepin County Attorney 1999-
  07
• Pros: Hard working; Competent
  (receives praise from conservatives);
  Progressive “Heartland” Dem; Female
  (took on Kavanaugh at SC confirmation)
• Cons: Multiple reports that she
  demeaned and abused staffers in her
  Senate office

In the Running (1-5%): Julian Castro 1%
• Experience: HUD Secretary under
  Obama 2014-17; San Antonio Mayor
  2009-14; Considered for Hillary’s VP
• Pros: Only Hispanic candidate;
  Youthful/Energetic; Immigration
  reform and Universal Pre K education
• Cons: Has not broken out from the
  pack; Competes with Beto O’Rourke
  for TX support

Staying Afloat: Registering in the Polls

Staying Afloat: Registering in the Polls

Staying Afloat: Registering in the Polls

Others in the Race but New or Lagging in the Polls
• Michael Bennet – US Senator from CO since 2009;
  Pragmatic Centrist (Business background); Sensible
  fiscal policies and a public option for Obamacare
  Medicaid States; Being treated for Prostate Cancer
• Bill de Blasio – Mayor of New York City since 2014;
  High profile progressive on social and economic issues;
  Attacks Trump regularly; NYC approval mayor approval
  ratings in the 40% range (76% do not want him to run)
• Steve Bullock – Governor of MT since 2012; A “blue”
  governor from a “red” state; Centrist; Seeks to reform
  campaign finance and reduce the influence of $ on
  campaigns and politicians

Others in the Race but New or Lagging in the Polls
• Mike Gravel – US Senator from AK 1969-81; Ran for
  president in 2008; 89 years old; Seeking to bring
  attention to direct democracy, nuclear non-
  proliferation, & non-interventionist foreign policy
• John Hickenlooper – CO Governor 2011-19; Business
  background (found a brewery); Centrist; Presided over
  economic boom in CO; Passed CO background checks
  & magazine limits after Aurora theater shooting
• Wayne Messam – Mayor of Miramar, FL since 2015
  (city council since 2011); Businessman & FSU 1993
  National Championship football team; 1st to call for
  cancelling college student debt; PR statehood

Others in the Race but New or Lagging in the Polls
• Seth Moulton – US House Member from MA since
  2015; Harvard grad & former Marine with 4 tours to
  Iraq; Seeks a smart, strong national security policy
  (views Trump as “reckless”); Rebelled against Pelosi
• Eric Swalwell – US House Member from CA since 2013;
  Media savvy – launched presidential bid on Stephen
  Colbert’s Late Show; Seeks ban & buyback of all
  military style semi-automatic assault weapons
• Marianne Williamson – New Age, Self Help NYT Best
  Selling Author; Oprah’s spiritual adviser; Campaign
  “dedicated to search for higher wisdom”; Seeks $100
  billion in reparations for African Americans

Looking Ahead at Possibilities
• More Democratic candidates could still enter the race!
• The Democratic debates will begin to filter some candidates out.
• Joe Biden could maintain his lead and go on to win the nomination. If
  Biden falters, the race will be wide open!
• There is a chance for a contested convention if no candidate secures
  the majority of votes needed.
• Remember its very early! In May 2015, the Republican primary
  leaders were Bush, Rubio, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Huckabee, & Carson!
  Trump did not announce until June 16, 2015.
• No matter which Democrat take the nomination, they will have a
  tough battle to beat Trump (if he runs) if the economy stays strong.