WORLDRISKREPORT 2020 FOCUS: FORCED DISPLACEMENT AND MIGRATION - WELTRISIKOBERICHT
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WorldRiskReport 2020 Focus: Forced Displacement and Migration
Imprint Publisher WorldRiskReport 2020 Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and Ruhr University Bochum – Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) Concept, implementation and editing Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft: Peter Mucke, Project Leader Lotte Kirch and Ruben Prütz, Editors in Chief Leopold Karmann, Assistance IFHV: Dr. Katrin Radtke, Scientific Lead MediaCompany: Julia Walter, Consulting and Editing Authors Benedikt Behlert, IFHV Rouven Diekjobst, IFHV Dr. Carsten Felgentreff, Osnabrück University Timeela Manandhar, IFHV Peter Mucke, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft Prof. Dr. Ludger Pries, Ruhr University Bochum Dr. Katrin Radtke, IFHV Daniel Weller, IFHV In collaboration with Claudia Berker, terre des hommes Svea Brück, IFHV Sabine Minninger, Brot für die Welt Hendrik Slusarenka, medico international Graphic design and information graphics Naldo Gruden, MediaCompany ISBN 978-3-946785-10-1 The WorldRiskReport has been published annually since 2011 by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft Responsible: Peter Mucke 2 WorldRiskReport 2020
Foreword
Nothing is shaping the year 2020 as strong- This is the only way to prevent many more
ly as the Covid-19 pandemic. It determines people from having to leave their homes in
our everyday life, our actions and our social the future due to irretrievably destroyed liveli-
interactions. Its long-term consequences are hoods and losing their basis of existence.
as yet unforeseeable. The news is dominated
by it, while other no less important issues are The WorldRiskReport has been published
receding into the background. These include annually since 2011 by Bündnis Entwicklung
the main topic of this year’s WorldRiskReport, Hilft. Since 2017, the Institute for International
“Forced Displacement and Migration”. The Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) at the
figures published this summer by the UN Ruhr University Bochum has been responsible
Refugee Agency are alarming: almost 80 million for the scientific management and calculation
people are currently fleeing their homes, and of the WorldRiskIndex contained in the report.
refugees at the EU’s external borders and inter- As a member of the Network on Humanitarian
nally displaced persons in their own countries Action (NOHA), the IFHV ensures the inter-
continue to die every day. Time and again, it national anchoring of the index in science.
becomes clear that the risk of displacement and Building on the exchange between science and
risks during forced displacement are unevenly practice, we jointly pursue the goal of main-
distributed – globally as well as within soci- taining and increasing the usefulness of the
eties. The Covid-19 pandemic further exacer- WorldRiskReport as an instrument and guide-
bates the situation of refugees and displaced line for decision-makers in politics and society.
persons. Social distancing simply cannot be
followed in overcrowded refugee camps such as
Moria on the Greek island of Lesbos or in Cox’s
Bazar in Bangladesh. The people there, who are
in particular need of protection in any case, are
experiencing a crisis within a crisis.
Wolf-Christian Ramm
Extreme natural events also often hit the poor- Chairman Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
est and most vulnerable members of society
hardest, including refugees and migrants.
Climate-related extreme weather events are
increasing in frequency and intensity in many
places, forcing more and more people to leave
their homes. This year’s WorldRiskReport
brings this issue to the fore and demonstrates Prof. Dr. Pierre Thielbörger
the need for climate justice and action. Executive Director IFHV
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft is formed by the aid organizations Brot für die The Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict
Welt, Christoffel-Blindenmission, DAHW, Kindernothilfe, medico interna- (IFHV) of Ruhr University Bochum is one of the leading institutions in
tional, Misereor, Plan International, terre des hommes, Welthungerhilfe Europe for research and teaching on humanitarian crises. Coming from a
and the associated members German Doctors and Oxfam. In contexts of long tradition in scientific analysis of international humanitarian law and
crisis and disasters, the member organizations provide short-term relief human rights, the Institute today combines interdisciplinary research in
as well as long-term support in order to overcome poverty and prevent the fields of law, social science, geoscience, and public health.
new crises.
WorldRiskReport 2020 3
Further information In-depth information, methodologies, and tables are available at www.WorldRiskReport.org. The reports from 2011 – 2019 can be downloaded there as well. 4 WorldRiskReport 2020
Contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 3
Key Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 6
1. Disaster Risk, Forced Displacement and Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 9
Peter Mucke
2. Focus: Forced Displacement and Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 17
2.1 Extreme Natural Events, Climate Change and Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 17
Ludger Pries
2.2 Migration, Forced Immobility and Return In Times of Coronavirus . . . . . . . . page 24
Carsten Felgentreff
2.3 Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic and Extreme Natural
Events on Refugees and Displaced Persons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 30
Timeela Manandhar
2.4 Human Rights as Means to Challenge Climate Change Injustices . . . . . . . . . . page 35
Benedikt Behlert, Rouven Diekjobst
3. The WorldRiskIndex 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 43
Katrin Radtke, Daniel Weller
4. Recommendations and Demands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 53
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, IFHV
Appendix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 57
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 64
WorldRiskReport 2020 5
Figure 1: WorldRiskIndex 2020
Key Results
WorldRiskIndex 2020
+ The WorldRiskIndex 2020 indicates the disaster extreme natural events. These also include the
risk for 181 countries in the world. The Pacific rise in sea level as a result of global warming.
island state of Vanuatu leads the index as the
country with the highest disaster risk (49.74). + Africa is the focus of social vulnerability. More
Qatar has the lowest risk (0.31). than two-thirds of the world’s most vulnera-
ble countries are located there. Among them,
+ The disaster risk is very heterogeneous world- the Central African Republic being the country
wide, but geographically highly concentrated. In with the highest vulnerability in international
2020, the hotspot regions of risk are still locat- comparison.
ed in Oceania, South-East Asia, Central America
and West and Central Africa. + In the ranking of vulnerability, Africa is followed
by the continents of Oceania, Asia, the Americas
+ Comparing the continents, Oceania ranks first in and Europe in descending order.
terms of disaster risk, followed by the Americas,
Asia and Europe. + Germany ranks 162nd in the WorldRiskIndex.
With an index value of 2.63, Germany has a very
+ Oceania is also the continent with the high- low disaster risk. With a median of 3.41 for 43
est exposure to extreme natural events. It is countries, Europe has by far the lowest disaster
followed by the Americas, Africa, Asia and risk of all continents.
Europe.
+ In 2020 a new country could be included in the
+ In general, island states, especially in the South WorldRiskIndex due to expanded dataset: The
Pacific and the Caribbean, are disproportionate- island state of Dominica ranks third with its very
ly represented among the high-risk countries. high-risk score of 28.47.
This is generally due to their high exposure to
6 WorldRiskReport 2020
Focus: Forced Displacement and Migration Rank Country Risk
1. Vanuatu 49.74 Figure 2:
Extract from the
+ Extreme natural events such as floods or storms 2. Tonga 29.72 WorldRiskIndex 2020
increase the probability of forced migration. 3. Dominica 28.47
Based on current information, global warming 4. Antigua and Barbuda 27.44
and the resulting changes in environmental 5. Solomon Islands 24.25
factors and extreme weather conditions also 6. Guyana 22.73
lead to complex migration movements. 7. Brunei Darussalam 22.30
8. Papua New Guinea 21.12
+ Conversely, massive migration processes can
9. Philippines 20.96
contribute to accelerating climate change.
10. Guatemala 20.09
This is particularly true for rural-urban internal
11. Cape Verde 17.73
migration, as growing cities bring with them,
12. Costa Rica 17.25
among other things, temperature changes.
13. Bangladesh 16.40
+ The prerequisites for coping with crises – 14. Djibouti 16.23
whether caused by extreme natural events or 15. Fiji 16.00
a pandemic such as currently Covid-19 – differ ... ... ...
worldwide. While, for example, contact restric- 162. Germany 2.63
tions in Germany slowed down the spread of ... ... ...
Covid-19, the imposed curfew in India increased 167. France 2.47
the risk of infection due to different initial 168. Lithuania 2.26
conditions. 169. Sweden 2.20
170. Switzerland 2.15
+ Vulnerable groups like the migrant workers 171. Maldives 2.12
in India are often left to their own devices in 172. Estonia 2.03
crises and disasters like the Covid-19 pandem-
173. Finland 1.96
ic. Vulnerabilities could be effectively reduced if
174. Egypt 1.78
all those in need in emergency situations were
175. Iceland 1.69
entitled to state support measures.
176. Barbados 1.39
+ In principle, states can close their borders to 177. Saudi Arabia 1.04
protect their populations, for example against 178. Grenada 0.97
the spread of infectious diseases. However, 179. St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0.81
border closures must always be necessary, 180. Malta 0.66
proportionate, and non-discriminatory. The 181. Qatar 0.31
protection of the population and the obligation
to protect asylum seekers must be reconciled.
+ One response to the vulnerability of refugees + The well-being of individuals, in cases of forced
and displaced persons is to strengthen human displacement and migration too, depends on
rights. In doing so, the special needs and partic- the willingness of the international community
ular vulnerability of vulnerable groups must and states that implement international treaties
always be considered. and agreements.
+ The international human rights offer migrants
a legal reference point for acting against global
injustice. On this basis, displaced persons can
claim their rights not only against their home
country, but also against the host country.
WorldRiskReport 2020 7
1 isaster Risk, Forced
D
Displacement and Migration
Peter Mucke Current disasters and potential natural hazards are forcing millions of
Managing Director,
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
people worldwide to leave their homes. This will increase in the future if no
effective climate protection measures are taken. A connection between the
occurrence of individual extreme natural events and climate change is still
difficult to prove. From a global perspective, global warming has meanwhile
clearly led to a change in the regional frequency and intensity of storms,
floods, and droughts. But whether and when persons take the drastic step of
leaving their home does not depend solely on external hazards. Social factors
such as community protection or the individual financial situation are also
decisive. Forced displacement and migration are therefore closely linked to
both dimensions of risk analysis in this report – exposure and vulnerability.
For forty days they pulled their sleds and Extreme natural events, which in this report
kayaks until they reached the west coast of include not only sea-level rise but also storms,
Greenland. In 1888, polar explorer Fridtjof floods, earthquakes and droughts, are already
Nansen and his small crew were able to prove forcing millions of people to flee within their
that the country was covered by a closed ice own country every year – either because of a
sheet during their journey across Greenland. direct physical threat from the natural hazard
After the First World War, in view of the large or because of secondary effects such as the
number of refugees, Fridtjof Nansen became destruction of livelihoods. It is now clear-
an energetic advocate for them from 1920 as ly evident that climate change is leading to a
Norway’s envoy in the League of Nations and, change in the regional frequency and intensi-
from 1922, as the League’s first High Commis- ty of extreme natural events (Lehmann et al.
sioner for Refugees. 2018). However, based on current analyses, a
direct connection between climate change and
Polar ice and forced displacement will continue individual natural hazards cannot be proven
to be mentioned in direct connection – albeit in (Faust / Rauch 2020).
a different way than Fridtjof Nansen could have
foreseen: From 2006 to 2015 alone, around 278 Proactive migration, a response to potential
billion tons of ice melted in Greenland every natural hazards such as an impending rise in
year. This caused sea levels to rise by 0.77 milli- sea levels, is also likely to increase – in which
meters a year. In addition, 155 billion tons of ice case migration is a possible form of adaptation
melted in Antarctica every year, raising sea level to hazards (IOM 2019b; IDMC 2017). Howev-
by a further 0.43 millimeters per year. By 2100, er, migration is not monocausal. A combina-
sea level could rise by even more than one meter tion of economic, environmental, social and
compared to the reference period 1986 to 2005, political aspects is considered to be the main
due in large part to the melting of polar ice if driver (see Chapter 2.1). The impact of the indi-
no consistent climate protection measures are vidual factors is difficult to operationalize, and
taken (IPCC 2019). Without serious counter- research findings are therefore inconsistent. In
measures, millions of people in coastal regions general, it can be observed that “mixed migra-
would then only be left with resettlement or tion flows” are becoming more common: groups
forced displacement. of migrants are increasingly made up of people
WorldRiskReport 2020 9
Forced Displacement and Migration –
with very different motivations (Horwood et al.
Terms and Definitions 2019).
The following list includes key decided on by the country in which Conceptual bases and their political
terms related to forced displace- the claim is submitted. Not every dimension
ment and migration, which are asylum seeker will ultimately be
used in the WorldRiskReport 2020. recognized as a refugee, but every The term “migration” encompasses many forms
refugee was initially an asylum of mobility (see overview on the left). Four
Migrant
seeker.” (UNHCR 2006) fundamental questions allow an approach to
“An umbrella term, not defined the different types of migration (IOM 2019b;
Internally displaced person (IDP)
under international law, reflecting WEF 2017):
the common lay understanding of “Persons or groups of persons who
a person who moves away from have been forced or obliged to flee + Is the movement domestic or across nation-
his or her place of usual residence, or to leave their homes or places of al borders? (classification according to polit-
whether within a country or across habitual residence, in particular as ical borders)
an international border, temporar- a result of or in order to avoid the
ily or permanently, and for a vari- effects of armed conflict, situations + What pattern of movement does the migra-
ety of reasons. The term includes a of generalized violence, violations of tion follow? (gradual migration, circu-
number of well-defined legal cate- human rights or n atural[1] or human- lar / seasonal migration, chain migration)
gories of people, such as migrant made disasters, and who have not
workers; persons whose particular crossed an internationally recog- + Is the movement voluntary or due to compul-
types of movements are legally-de- nized state border.” (UNCHR 1998) sion or forced by circumstances? (voluntary
fined, such as smuggled migrants; (Forced) Displacement migration or forced displacement)
as well as those whose status or
means of movement are not specif- “The movement of persons who
+ How long is the stay? (short-term migration
ically defined under international have been forced or obliged to flee and long-term migration lasting over a year)
law, such as international students.” or to leave their homes or places of
(IOM 2019a) habitual residence, in particular as Since migration is used as a generic term
a result of or in order to avoid the for various forms of mobility, many studies
Refugee effects of armed conflict, situations subsume forced displacement under migra-
[Any person who] “owing to of generalized violence, violations of tion. However, the term “forced displacement”
well-founded fear of being perse- human rights or natural[1] or human- is interpreted or used differently depending on
cuted for reasons of race, religion, made disasters. […] The above defi- the direction of observation: This ranges from
nationality, membership of a partic- nition is meant to cover both inter- the colloquial “fleeing from something” (for
ular social group or political opinion, nal and cross-border displacement.” example, even from extreme natural events)
is outside the country of his nation- (IOM 2019a) to the limitation to the legally established term
ality and is unable or, owing to such Returnee “refugees” according to the Geneva Refugee
fear, is unwilling to avail himself of Convention. Irrespective of this partially vary-
the protection of that country; or “A person who was of concern to
ing perspective, forced displacement always
who, not having a nationality and UNHCR when outside his / her coun-
occurs out of impending or acute need. Migra-
being outside the country of his try of origin and who remains so,
tion, on the other hand, can also take place for
former habitual residence as a result for a limited period (usually two
other reasons that are not necessarily linked to
of such events, is unable or, owing years), after returning to the coun-
an emergency situation.
to such fear, is unwilling to return to try of origin. The term also applies
it.” (UNGA 1951; UNGA 1967) to internally displaced persons who
Internal displacement and international
return to their previous place of resi-
Asylum seeker migration
dence.” (UNHCR 2019)
“An individual who is seeking inter- The vast majority of all people displaced by
national protection. In countries The term “natural disasters” is not consistent with
[1]
the concept of disaster used in the WorldRiskReport. extreme natural events seek (temporary)
with individualized procedures, an This concept assumes that disasters resulting from refuge within their own national borders. Most
asylum seeker is someone whose extreme natural events are not only caused by the
of these displacements are due to floods and
natural event as such, but are also influenced by the
claim has not yet been finally societal conditions (see Chapter 3). storms. According to IDMC (2017), more than
10 WorldRiskReport 2020half of the world’s disaster-related displace- and migration as well as their complex and
ments take place in South and East Asia and the context-dependent interactions with exposure
Pacific region, with Small Island Developing and vulnerability, there is no separate indica-
States (SIDS) being disproportionately affected. tor in the WorldRiskIndex that places forced
Overall, extreme natural events in 2019 caused displacement and migration in a direct relation-
almost three times as many internal displace- ship with disaster risk. However, the indicator
ments as violent conflicts (IDMC 2020a, see on fragile statehood does include the situation
fold-out map “Extreme natural events versus of refugees and forcibly displaced persons as
conflicts as triggers for internal displacement”). a subcategory. As a cross-cutting issue, forced
However, even the majority of people who displacement and migration are indirectly
have to leave their homes due to violence and relevant, to a large extent, to the vulnerabili-
armed conflict do not cross national borders but ty indicators. For example, the indicators on
seek refuge within their own country, and thus poverty and supply dependencies as well as on
are “Internally Displaced Persons” (UNHCR economic strength and income distribution are
2020g). relevant both to the assessment of disaster risks
and to the analyses under this year’s priority
According to United Nations estimates, the theme (see Chapter 3).
worldwide number of international migrants
grew to approximately 272 million in 2019 (UN In addition to the usual vulnerability factors,
DESA 2019b). This would correspond to a very refugees and migrants often face further
significant increase of almost 100 million inter- aggravating factors such as language barriers,
national migrants since the year 2000, but the lack of familiarity with local structures and
estimates should be treated with caution, as difficult access to state prevention and assis-
they are based on data provided to the Unit- tance programs (see the foldout card “Forced
ed Nations by the individual states, some of Displacement and Migration: Causes, Obsta-
which define international migrants differently cles, Possible Negative Consequences”). Migra-
(IOM 2019b). tion and forced displacement can destroy
family structures, divide communities, weaken
With about 20 million refugees under UNHCR social networks, and also indirectly significant-
mandate in 2019, forced displacement across ly increase the vulnerability of individuals, such
international borders – in purely quantitative as women and children who are left behind
terms – represents a rather small proportion (Opitz-Stapleton et al. 2017).
of migration. However, refugees are one of the
population groups that are often most in need At the same time, migrants and refugees bring
of humanitarian aid. Forced displacement with them important capacities that can be
across national borders due to violence and crucial in managing crises. For example, they
conflict is unevenly distributed globally. More can contribute to the dissemination of informa-
than two-thirds of all cross-border refugees tion through their linguistic and cultural diver-
come from just five countries: Syria, Venezuela, sity. In this regard, it is crucial that govern-
Afghanistan, Southern Sudan, and Myanmar. ments recognize and consider the different
The majority (73 percent) of those who cross a needs and capabilities of citizens and non-cit-
national border stay in a neighboring country of izens (IOM 2019b).
their home country (UNHCR 2020g).
Refugees, forcibly displaced persons and
Risk evaluation migrants not only generally have a high-
er vulnerability but are also often forced by
In the WorldRiskIndex, exposure and vulner- their living conditions to consciously accept
ability are analyzed on the basis of selected increased exposure. This can relate to their
indicators, thereby providing an assessment of whereabouts and working conditions, as well
disaster risk (see also the showcase “The concept as to the dangers they face on the road (see
of the WorldRiskReport”, page 15). Owing to Chapter 2.2). Furthermore, various factors that
the multi-causality of forced displacement contribute to migration decisions are directly
WorldRiskReport 2020 11and indirectly influenced by extreme natural camps have inadequate water and sanitation
events. For example, adverse environmen- facilities, which are often used by far more
tal changes can have a negative impact on the people than originally planned. Comprehensive
value and income of household goods by reduc- hygiene measures, which are indispensable for
ing land and property and lowering agricultural protection against Covid-19, cannot usually be
output (for example crop yields) or by increas- guaranteed in such camps (see Chapter 2.3).
ing the price of goods and reducing purchasing Social distancing is hardly feasible in over-
power (Feng et al. 2010). crowded camps – some of them are among
the places with the highest population density
Although forced displacement and migration worldwide (IRC 2020).
may occur to avoid high exposure, marginal-
ization and exclusion of refugees and displaced People in informal settlements, especially those
persons result in most cases in an increased risk in the Global South, are confronted with a
during extreme natural events (IOM 2019b). similar situation. The poorer urban population
This applies, in particular, to migrants and often settles in areas that are unattractive to the
refugees who have no or only weakly devel- wealthier part of the population and therefore
oped social structures in their new place of resi- not yet inhabited. For example, the increasing
dence, which makes it harder for them to obtain development of steep and unstable slopes leads
information about extreme natural events in to a high risk of landslides or flooding. High
their geographical vicinity, for example (Opitz- settlement density, temporary shelters and a
Stapleton et al. 2017). lack of infrastructure make people even more
vulnerable (Abunyewah et al. 2018). The Covid-
Extreme natural events and forced displace- 19 pandemic exacerbates such inequalities,
ment during the Covid-19 pandemic as measures to contain the virus in informal
settlements in countries of the Global South are
The Covid-19 pandemic, which marks the year generally not feasible (Kluge et al. 2020).
2020, has intensified other crises and, at the
same time, relegated them to the background. Outlook
One example is Cyclone Amphan: In May
2020, the cyclone caused severe damage at The international community of states has given
speeds of up to 185 kilometers per hour in West itself time until 2030 to implement the Agenda
Bengal and Bangladesh. Thousands of houses for Sustainable Development and the Sendai
were destroyed, power cuts occurred in large Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. These
areas, and roads were flooded in many places. two international agreements are particularly
The coronavirus crisis made emergency relief relevant to the interactions between extreme
measures more difficult (Bündnis Entwicklung natural events, climate change, environmental
Hilft 2020). For example, during distributions degradation, forced displacement and migra-
the helpers had to pay close attention to the tion (UNGA 2015; UNISDR 2015).
social distancing to protect themselves and
others. In India, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, In the Sendai Framework 2015-2030, forced
many evacuation centers were already occu- displacement and migration are integrated in a
pied because they had been converted into more comprehensive way than in the previous
quarantine facilities or shelters for migrants ten-year period. However, crucial aspects are
returning home because of the lockdown still not sufficiently addressed in this frame-
(Oxfam 2020). work, such as the need for risk reduction
measures for different groups of migrants. The
People who already live under precarious primary reason for this is the unwillingness
conditions before the onset of a pandemic of some states to discuss forced displacement
or an extreme natural event (which applies and migration in the context of disaster risk
to the majority of people in the large emer- reduction. This can also be seen in compari-
gency shelters) are particularly vulnera- son with the Sustainable Development Goals
ble and therefore have a higher risk. Many (SDGs) developed in parallel. Thus, some of
12 WorldRiskReport 2020People of Concern according to UNHCR
“People of Concern” comprises various groups of migrants, who, because 80 m
of their precarious situation, are under the protection mandate of UNHCR.
Although the vast majority of the world’s refugees and displaced persons
are protected by this, there are also people in precarious life situations, 70 m
who cannot claim this protection because of definitional distinctions.
60 m
50 m
Others
Asylum seekers 40 m
Returnees
30 m
Stateless
20 m
Refugees
Internally
displaced persons 10 m
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Figure 3: Composition and size of different groups of migrants under the protection mandate of the UNHCR (Data source: UNHCR 2020f)
the objectives anchored in the SDGs are either The SDGs cover further issues that are rele-
weakened or not sufficiently taken into account vant in the context of forced displacement
in the Sendai Framework (Guadagno 2016). and migration; as an essential component of
sustainable development, this is anchored in a
This applies, for example, to “remittances”, the total of ten of the 17 SDGs (see Chapter 4).
money transfers from migrants to relatives who
have remained behind. While in the process At an international level, there is a current
of developing the SDGs, there was pressure debate on the possibility that international-
to simplify and thus promote “remittances”, ly enshrined human rights offer refugees and
such simplifications were critically assessed migrants the chance to obtain protection in
in the negotiations on the Sendai Framework. a country less affected by climate change. A
Although, in principle, they can lead to a statement by the UN Human Rights Committee
strengthening of individual capacities for adap- legally opened this path in January 2020 (see
tation and coping, thus leading to a progressive Chapter 2.4).
development in the countries of origin, a danger
was anticipated that regional individual initia- In addition, a discussion is taking place at United
tives could be inhibited and instead dependen- Nations level on expanding the refugee concept.
cies on the inflow of money could be created As Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for
(Guadagno 2016). Refugees, said: “Forced displacement across
WorldRiskReport 2020 13borders can stem from the interaction between of asylum applications in the EU fell from
climate change and disasters with conflict and 57,105 in May 2019 to 10,200 in May 2020
violence, or it can arise from natural [events] (EASO 2020). Due to the coronavirus crisis, the
or man-made disasters alone. Either situation capacity to register refugees and document their
can trigger international protection need.” data is limited in many places. However, these
(Thompson 2019). In July 2020, the UNHCR registrations are an essential part of protection
emphasized that persons originating from activities and provide an overview of the global
states or regions affected by climate change situation of refugees (UNHCR 2020g). There
and extreme natural events can also be refugees are considerable fears that individual states will
within the meaning of the Geneva Convention. use the contact ban measures introduced with
This is the case, for example, when disasters the Covid-19 pandemic to establish their entry
such as drought or famine are linked to armed restrictions and the rejection of refugees and
conflicts or disputes that are racially, ethnical- migrants at borders in the long term.
ly, religiously or politically motivated. Persecu-
tion within the meaning of the Geneva Refugee His tireless commitment to refugees, together
Convention may also be present if certain popu- with his ground-breaking polar journeys, has
lation groups are disproportionately exposed to characterized the lifework of Fridtjof Nansen.
such disasters, for example by being deprived of To this day, the UNHCR continues to award the
protection or assistance (UNHCR 2020h). The Nansen Refugee Award annually for outstand-
United Nations has thus declared its readiness ing commitment to refugee protection. The
to address the questions of the future – so far award winners stand for the values that Fridt-
with an uncertain outcome. jof Nansen embodied throughout his life: a firm
conviction and persistence in the face of chal-
For the time being, however, the measures to lenges (UNHCR 2020i). These principles have
contain the Covid-19 pandemic have massively not lost any of their significance in light of the
limited the protection of refugees. The number challenges yet to come.
14 WorldRiskReport 2020The concept of the WorldRiskReport
Concept of “risk” and approach context from a qualitative perspective – while immediate neighborhood assistance
this year’s topic is “forced displacement cannot be measured in the event of a
The risk assessment in the WorldRiskReport and migration”. disaster, it is nonetheless very important.
is based on the general notion that the Furthermore, variances in data quality
intensity of the extreme natural event The calculation of the disaster risk has among different countries may occur if
is not the only factor of relevance to the been performed for 181 states worldwide data is only gathered by national author-
disaster risk, but that the overall situation and is based on four components: ities and not by an independent interna-
of society is equally important. If it is less tional institution.
developed, a society will be more vulner- + Exposure to earthquakes, storms,
able to natural events than if it is better floods, drought, and sea-level rise The aim of the report
prepared in regard to susceptibility, coping
capacities, and adaptive capacities (Bünd- + Susceptibility depending on infrastruc- The exposition of the disaster risk using the
nis Entwicklung Hilft 2011). ture, food supply, and economic frame- index and its four components shows the
work conditions disaster risk hotspots across the world and
Risk assessment the fields of action to achieve the neces-
+ Coping capacities depending on gover sary reduction of risks. Complemented by
The WorldRiskReport contains the World nance, health care, social and material qualitative analyses within the report, it is
RiskIndex. Since 2018, it has been calcu- security possible to formulate recommendations
lated by the Institute for International Law for action for national and international,
of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) at Ruhr + Adaptive capacities related to upcom- state and civil society actors.
University Bochum. The Index was devel- ing natural events, climate change,
oped by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft in coop- and other challenges.
eration with the United Nations University
in Bonn. In addition to the data section, The WorldRiskIndex can only consider indi-
the WorldRiskReport always contains a cators for which comprehensible, quan-
focus chapter examining background and tifiable data is available. For example,
Natural hazard sphere Societal sphere
Floods
Vulnerability
Mean of the three
Sea-level rise Exposure components
Exposure to natural
hazards
Storms Coping
Susceptibility Capacities to reduce
Likelihood of suffering negative consequences
harm
Droughts
Adaptation
Earthquakes WorldRiskIndex Capacities for long-
term strategies for
Product of Exposure and Vulnerability
societal change
Figure 4: The WorldRiskIndex and its components
WorldRiskReport 2020 152 F orced Displacement
and Migration
2.1 Extreme Natural Events, Climate Change
and Migration
Since the beginning of 2020, the coronavirus crisis has made it particularly
Ludger Pries clear that the major challenges facing humanity do not stop at national borders.
Professor of Sociology with
Focus on Organization,
Global risks can only be dealt with collectively. This applies to pandemics and
Migration, Participation, Ruhr extreme natural events as well as to climate change. Moreover, the coronavirus
University Bochum crisis is a significant challenge for all people and regions of the world but the
risks are not evenly distributed. This also holds for the interactions of extreme
natural events and migration: Not all places in the world will be equally
affected by the challenges posed by the interaction of changing natural
hazards and migration. What impact will global warming have? Forecasts
vary between global mass migration movements and migration processes
that are only regionally limited. From a social science perspective, neither
alarmist panic nor false reassurance are called for.
Migration movements have repeatedly been that planning and increased mobility can reduce
caused by drastic climate changes such as ice the human security costs of displacement from
ages or temporary natural events such as extreme extreme weather events.” (IPCC 2014, 768;
storms, frost or drought periods. According to Burzyńskia et al. 2019)
all scientific forecasts, current global warming
and the resulting changes in environmental In 2019 alone, some 24 million internal
factors and extreme weather conditions are also displacements were registered worldwide due
leading to complex migratory movements. Since to climate-induced extreme natural events.
the 1990s, the Intergovernmental Panel on Extreme natural events such as floods or severe
Climate Change (IPCC), the International Orga- storms increase the probability of forced migra-
nization for Migration (IOM) and many scientif- tion. The latter, in turn, affects women and
ic institutes have estimated that by the middle of socially disadvantaged classes more strong-
this century hundreds of millions of people will ly and differently, they initially have fewer
have to abandon their place of residence and resources for local, regional or even internation-
migrate because of coastal erosion and flood- al migration, and later worse starting conditions
ing, changed agricultural conditions or more for returning to their old place of residence.
frequent extreme weather conditions. However, There is an inverse relationship between vulner-
scientists warn against an uncritical categori- ability and opportunities for migration (IOM
zation of “climate migrants” or even quantita- 2008; IDMC 2020a).
tive prognoses. This is because the causes and
forms as well as the consequences of migration Conversely, massive migration processes can
processes are much more complex: also be a factor in accelerating climate change.
This is particularly true of urban-rural migra-
“There are no robust global estimates of future tion inside countries, which has been observed
displacement but there is significant evidence all over the world since the 19th and, especially,
WorldRiskReport 2020 17the 20th century. Large cities lead to locally + Once initiated, migration causes new migra-
increased temperatures, reduced wind speeds tion through changed expectations in the
and altered cloud formation and precipitation regions of origin and new, migration-related
(Grawe et al. 2013). Conversely, rural exodus demand structures in the regions of arrival.
often results in neglect of landscape manage- Through remittances, social and cultural
ment, and related soil erosion can further “fuel” influences, the regions remain connected to
climate change. each other.
With regard to the connection between + Migration processes essentially follow the
climate-induced extreme natural events and logic of collective action of the migrants in
migration, a scenario has often been drawn up their local, national and transnational rela-
in the rich countries of the Global North accord- tions and social spaces. Measures of restric-
ing to which a “flood of climate refugees” is to tive border controls often lead to less flexi-
be expected (Myers / Kent 1995; Rigaud et al. ble labor market adjustment and to higher
2018). However, the migration dynamics to life risks for the migrants.
date, which have been caused by wars, violence
and political persecution, show that the vast + Ecological problems, armed conflicts and
majority of these forcibly displaced persons poverty are increasingly blurring the bound-
remains in the countries concerned as internally aries between labor migration and forced
displaced persons (IDPs) or in the neighboring displacement, voluntary and forced migra-
countries as international refugees and asylum tion, regular and irregular migration, to
seekers. This is closely related to the gener- “mixed migration flows”. Modern communi-
al structural characteristics and the inherent cation and transport facilities can promote
dynamics of migration. transnational migration with multiple loca-
tions of the migrants in the country of origin
The dynamics of migration and the country of arrival.
The relationships between climate change, + As a rule, migration is not a rational one-off
extreme natural events and migration are also decision, but a longer-term process of
so complex because migration itself (as the “muddling through”, in which goals, sched-
relatively permanent relocation of the center of ules, identities and historically developed
life and place of residence of people) has a high social network structures are iteratively and
momentum of its own and evades simple polit- successively developed. Migration process-
ical control. For example, the so-called Bracero es can be partially influenced by incentives
program between Mexico and the USA during or prohibitions but can only be politically
the Second World War was intended to tempo- controlled and steered to a limited extent;
rarily ensure the supply of additional labor to it is not unusual for attempts to control or
the USA. In fact, transnational social networks steer migration to have completely different
were created as a result, which have led to a (main) effects than the intended ones.
permanent presence of well over thirty million
immigrants of Mexican descent in the USA to From a micro level, the complexity of migration
date (Noe-Bustamante 2019). In Europe, the and how it is integrated into relationships of soci-
“guest worker” migration of the second half ety as a whole results from the fact that people
of the 20th century was also actually intended act individually as families and households in
by the participating states as temporary labor habitualized social practice and make decisions
migration. Indeed, this labor migration has led regarding migration for which there are certain
to many EU member states, including Germany, regularities but no clear rules. On a meso level,
becoming immigration countries. migration processes are always integrated into
historically developed networks, knowledge,
The inherent dynamics of migration processes communication, transport and organisational
are reflected in the following regularities: structures, similar to the way the unevenness of
the soil forms the concrete runoff of rainwater.
18 WorldRiskReport 2020On a macro level, finally, the migration policies continue to be substantial in the coming decades
of nation states as well as regional, bilateral or (UN DESA 2019a). All this makes prevention in
international agreements also influence migra- view of expected climate-related extreme natu-
tion. All these factors influence numbers and ral events very difficult. Large coastal metropol-
time frames of people migrating. itan regions, and especially the entire coast of
West Africa, are massively threatened by rising
There is scientific evidence to suggest that sea levels (Croitoru et al. 2019).
particularly vulnerable social groups will or can
react relatively late to climate-induced chang- Africa is also characterized by a consider-
es in natural hazards in the form of migration able proportion of migration to neighbor-
due to a lack of resources. Such climate-induced ing macroregions and continental migration.
forced migration is then usually accompanied Migration relations have been established for
by poor health conditions, especially in tempo- generations between the North African Maghreb
rary accommodation and camps (IPCC 2014). states and EU member states. Here, for exam-
The current coronavirus crisis shows how detri- ple, the changing threat of floods or droughts,
mental such accommodation conditions are to resulting in fewer opportunities for agricultur-
health. As climate change impacts adversely al production, can lead to further rural-urban
on human security, for example with regard to and international migration. In a comparison
employment opportunities and housing, spatial between Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and
mobility can be seen as a generalized strategy Latin America, the World Bank expects that 70
to respond to this. This cluster of effects also to 80 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa will
includes the fact that there are empirically prov- migrate within the continent by the middle of
en links between armed conflicts, organized this century due to climate change. By compari-
violence and climate change (IPCC 2014). The son, only about half of this figure is assumed for
WorldRiskIndex cannot capture or model the South Asia and only one fifth for Latin America
complex causal relationships between climate (Rigaud et al. 2018).
change impacts, migration and other relevant
aspects of social development. It does, howev- Globally, the effects of the interplay between
er, indicate in which countries and regions the climate change impacts and (internal) migra-
exposure, susceptibility and adaptation as well tion will focus on hot spots of emigration and
as coping options for fundamental human secu- immigration. Cities such as Dhaka in Bangla-
rity risks are concentrated. Such a regional view desh, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Addis
is also useful for considering the relationship Ababa in Ethiopia are likely to face major prob-
between climate change impacts and migration, lems in the supply of (drinking) water due to
taking into account the particularly vulnerable climate change (Rigaud et al. 2018). Calcutta in
groups in each case. India is not prepared for rising seawater levels
in the same way as New York City or the Dutch
Challenges for social groups and specific coastal region. This, alone, shows how different-
regions ly regions will be affected by emigration depend-
ing on their degree of vulnerability.
Most regions of the world face specific challeng-
es with extreme natural events, climate change There are also reliable findings, based on
and migration. Africa is home to a very large regional case studies, on the social dynamics
number of countries with a high to very high risk that can result from the interaction of climate
according to the WorldRiskIndex. As a result of change impacts, organized violence, weak states
colonialism, formal state autonomy was often and migration. In Kenya and Sudan, for exam-
not attained until late in the 20th century, and ple, it has been shown that climate change-re-
this, together with economic, political, social lated restrictions on agricultural production
and cultural relations of dependency that still – especially grazing opportunities for live-
persist today, have left many fragile and highly stock – exacerbate regional ethnic and social
vulnerable states on this continent. Africa is the conflicts. If state infrastructure cannot guaran-
only continent on which population growth will tee the compliance with human rights and social
WorldRiskReport 2020 19order, the likelihood of armed groups and orga- being tested in some cases by EU member
nized violence will increase. Larger domestic or states (Schneider / Parusel 2011). Where direct
cross-border migration processes are then, on climate-impact-induced migration occurs,
the one hand, a consequence of such develop- targeted, temporary or permanent resettlement
ments and, on the other hand, they potentially programs should be developed (Ferris / Weer-
contribute to aggravating conflict situations asinghe 2020). The experience gained from
and levels of violence themselves (Scheffran et European programs on circular migration can
al. 2014). It is also apparent that extreme social be used to develop important findings for bilat-
challenges tend to lead to the emigration of more eral and multilateral cooperation in the context
highly qualified people and thus to a local brain of climate-induced migration. The UN Decla-
drain, while knowledge and qualified employ- ration for Refugees and Migrants of 2016 and
ees in the affected regions would be particular- the Global Treaty on Safe, Orderly and Regular
ly important, especially under these conditions Migration of 2018 are first steps towards recog-
(Drabo / Mbaye 2011). nizing the global responsibility of the inter-
national community with regard to climate-
Challenges for states and politics induced migration (UNGA 2016; UNGA 2018).
Climate change-related extreme natural events Even though vulnerable countries, in particu-
and migration must be considered in the over- lar, often lack resources to adapt to the conse-
all context of global sustainable development. A quences of climate change, general awareness
vigorous pursuit of the United Nations goals for of the problem has grown in many countries
sustainable development probably provides the (IPCC 2014). The EU initiated discussions at a
best basis for accepting the challenge of climate comparatively early stage on how to enhance
change impacts and the associated dynamics the positive development effects of migration,
of forced migration. The countries likely to be and how climate change can also be taken into
particularly affected by climate-related environ- account in strategies on international migration
mental and extreme weather changes, for exam- (European Commission 2016). Individual states
ple in Africa, Latin America and South Asia, or communities of states can also improve their
should already now incorporate the possible or visa conditions for people from areas particu-
expected consequences with regard to internal larly affected by climate change (such as Pacific
migration into their country development plan- islands like Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands)
ning. This can mean preparing for the expected (Constable 2017).
influx of internal migrants to large regions such
as Bangalore in India, Nairobi in Kenya or Mexi- The categorization of people as “climate refu-
co City (Rigaud et al. 2018). gees” is not very helpful; it obscures complex
causal relationships and usually leads to nega-
It is precisely these countries which have bene- tive prejudices against certain social groups.
fited particularly from industrialization and Nevertheless, it is worth considering how the
globalization over several generations. They societal challenges (partly) posed by climate
bear a considerable share of the responsibili- change can be adequately reflected in human
ty for climate change that should now make a rights and development policy concepts. The
disproportionate commitment to combating human-made contribution to climate change
climate change and mitigating its consequenc- was mainly driven by early industrialized coun-
es. Above all, the poorer countries of the Glob- tries. Nowadays, it is global. All countries, espe-
al South, which are particularly affected by the cially those of the rich Global North, must face
consequences of climate change, should receive up to the responsibility that goes with it.
substantial international resources. These
should not only include economic transfers and
financing programs, but also knowledge coop-
eration and the equal development of programs
for sustainable circular migration, as already
20 WorldRiskReport 2020Disaster Risk and Internal Displacement
The disaster risk of countries is a 4.0
latent phenomenon that can mate- Continents
rialize in extreme events depend- Africa
ing on the extent of vulnerability. Americas
For 171 countries, the WorldRisk
Median of population shares of new internal displaced
Asia
Index was compared with the 0.6
Philippines Europe
median of the proportions of the WRI 20.96
Oceania
population that were newly affect- Median 3.77
ed by extreme natural events in the
years 2010 to 2019. The comparison
0.4
shows: The disaster risk does not Vanuatu
necessarily go hand in hand with a WRI 49.74
realization in the form of new inter- Median 0.34
nal displacement, since the quin-
tiles of the WorldRiskIndex – apart
0.2
from the lowest – are characterized
by a strong spread in the medians.
From a global perspective, howev-
er, there is a moderate, non-linear
correlation (Spearmans ρ: 0.389). 0.0
0 10 20 30 50
WorldRiskIndex
Note: Due to the lack of data from IDMC, Bahrain, Denmark, Qatar, Kuwait, Malta, the Netherlands, São Tomé and Príncipe, Singapore, Turkmenistan
and Belarus have not been included here.
Figure 5: The WorldRiskIndex compared to actual displacement due to extreme natural events (data source: IDMC 2020b)
WorldRiskReport 2020 21Zimbabwe
Between Trauma and Hope
Country profile the most advanced countries in southern
Africa, a third of the population now lives
Rank 51 in WorldRiskIndex 2020 The landlocked country of Zimbabwe in extreme poverty as a result of ongo-
in southern Africa has a mild subtropi- ing political and economic crises – and
WorldRiskIndex 9.32 cal climate with seasonal, sometimes the trend is rising. Even before Cyclone
very variable, rainfall. Dry periods and Idai, more than five million people were
Exposure 14.62 heavy rainfall are not unusual. In recent already dependent on food aid. The
years, however, these phenomena Zimbabwean government is aware of the
Vulnerability 63.76 have increased. Since 2010, there have country’s susceptibility to extreme natu-
been floods and droughts almost every ral events. State disaster management
year, intensified by the El Niño weather and a strategy for responding to climate
phenomenon. change exist, but they are provided with
completely inadequate resources.
In addition, there have been extreme
tropical storms like Cyclone Idai, which The majority of the 13 million Zimba-
hit Zimbabwe in March 2019. The storm bweans are not able to cope with
and the associated heavy rainfall left shocks caused by extreme natural
behind heavy destruction, especial- events and the loss of property and
ly in the eastern part of the country. sources of income often associated
Hundreds of people died and more than with them by their own effort. This
250,000 lost their homes, harvests, and applies all the more to the approximate-
stocks. While Zimbabwe was once one of ly 20,000 people who currently live in
22 WorldRiskReport 2020Forced Displacement hygiene articles and learning materials Results and impacts
for the emergency supply of the particu-
and Migration Data larly affected families had been distrib- Evaluations show that comprehensive
uted, the activities concentrated on the psychosocial support services have led to
14,645,468 psychosocial care for children and young significant improvements in the well-be-
Inhabitants (2019) people. ing of almost 70 percent of the children
and young people reached. They became
52,000 Many of the adolescents had already happier, more open, showed initiative,
New internal displacements experienced severe loss and violence – and began to develop plans for their
in the context of extreme
like the 14-year-old orphan Joseph, who future. These are important elements
natural events (2019)
had made his way from the Democrat- of resilience and self-efficacy and are
10,616 ic Republic of Congo to Zimbabwe two the basis for ensuring that children and
Refugees, leaving (2019) years earlier. Through Idai, Joseph lost young people are better equipped to
his food supplies, books and the roof continue to assert themselves in the still
8,959 over his head. After civil war, loss of his fragile context of the TRC. Some young
Refugees, coming (2019) parents and forced displacement into people became involved in an addition-
an uncertain future, this was another al advocacy initiative and, for the first
traumatic experience. For children like time, were able to voice their concerns
Joseph, it was therefore important not in forums outside the camp.
only to restore a bit of normality but to
strengthen their overall resistance in the Parents reported back that they were
event of crises and disasters. able to put what they had learned into
practice and pass it on to other families.
Childline set up Child and Youth Friendly Together with them, governmental and
Spaces for this purpose, where adoles- non-governmental actors in the camp,
cents could play, relax, but also talk helped by the young people, put togeth-
about their fears and develop their er a handbook for better child protec-
Zimbabwe as refugees and asylum seek- coping strategies. These services were tion in extreme situations. This remains
ers. Most of them come from Rwanda, also aimed at children outside the camp, usable beyond the acute emergency.
Burundi, Mozambique, and the Demo- thus increasing their awareness of the
cratic Republic of Congo, and live in the suffering they have experienced togeth- Despite the intensive support provid-
Tongogara Refugee Camp (TRC) in Mani- er, regardless of their legal or social ed to the children and young people, it
caland Province, where they often stay status. More than 1,400 children benefit- became clear that many of them need
for years. ed from these activities. long-term services. The traumatic expe-
riences are deep-seated, with rainfall,
Project context Where necessary, the children received for example, triggering fears of a repe-
and project activities additional therapeutic support. Parents tition of the disaster. The slow recon-
and other caregivers were able to learn struction of infrastructure in Tongogara,
Idai, the most severe cyclone in Zimba- in workshops on educational issues – the precarious housing situation and
bwe to date, hit the TRC with great despite the enormous pressure they the existential hardships exacerbate
force. According to UNHCR, around 5,300 were under – to respond positively to the burden and risk of sexual violence
people were affected, and more than their children, to encourage them and against children. terre des hommes is,
1,000 houses, most of them makeshift, to protect them in this precarious situ- therefore, continuing to support the work
were damaged or destroyed by water ation in the best possible way. Since of Childline in order to strengthen child
and wind. 600 latrines were flooded, young people prefer to talk about their protection and psychosocial services in
thereby contaminating the drinking concerns with peers, peer-to-peer self- the TRC. Practical training in the work-
water. help groups were initiated. The young place is also intended to improve young
moderators who had previously been people’s chances of leading a self-deter-
Immediately after the cyclone, terre des trained for this were themselves affect- mined life.
hommes Deutschland started an aid ed by Idai and were able to empathize
program in Tongogara, which was imple- well with the concerns of others. Claudia Berker, Regional Expert Africa, terre des
hommes
mented with the Zimbabwean partner
organization Child-line, and initially
ran until the end of 2019. Once food,
WorldRiskReport 2020 23You can also read
