Oman 9th Five-Year Development Plan and the Strategic Economic Sectors (2016-2020)
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Oman 9th Five-Year Development Plan
and the Strategic Economic Sectors
(2016-2020)
Presented by HE Talal al Rahbi, Deputy Secretary General of the Supreme Council of Planning in the Sultanate of Oman
Berlin, March 29,2017
Oman: A Historical Perspective
Oman has several comparative advantages that could
put its economy on the high growth trajectory path
• The strategic geographical location
• Oman is endowed with abundant level of
energy supply
• High level of world quality infrastructure
• Very young and vibrant labor force
• Stable political and business environment
• Effective pro FDI industrial policy
• Supportive macroeconomic policies The Periplus map was prepared by a Greek sailor in the first century it shows
the
importance of Oman as a hub for the main sailing routes at a time when the
frankincense trade was important.
(Rights courtesy : The Office of His Majesty’s Counselor for Cultural Affairs)
2
The Vision of His Majesty Sultan Qaboos Bin Said
The Council of Oman, which comprises two Councils: The
MajIls Ash’shura – a trailblazing experiment which has
proved its success over the past years – and the Council
of State, which we hope will be yet another strong
building-block in the edifice of Omani society – a building-
block that will reinforce Oman’s achievements and
reaffirm the principles we have laid down. These
principles include the establishment of solid foundations
for a genuine consultative process based on the nation’s
heritage, values and Islamic Shariah, which takes pride in
its history while adopting the best that the modern world
has to offer.”
Qaboos bin Said, Sultan of Oman
3
A transformational Journey for the past 45 years
Achievements of Oman Socio Economic Development 1970-2015 after a major role played by the
vision 2020
Indicator 1970 2015
Omani 658 2,345
Population (in 000)
Expats ~0 1,814
Oil extraction in 000 b/day 332 981.1
GDP at current prices (Mn.R.O.) 104.7 26,850.3
GDP per Capita in R.O 159 6,456
Life Expectancy at birth (years) 47.4 76.4
Pupils in general education in 000* 7 724.4
Students in Higher Education Institution in 000* 0.4 136.5*
Water Production in bn. Gallons 0.16 79.357
Population with access to Safe water % 94.9%
Girls in general education % of total Pupils 16.2% 49%
•Role of Private Sector in national economy has been expanding and strengthened .
•Infrastructure has been brought to advance modern standards over much of the country . 4
Source: NCSI
Economic Fundamentals of the Omani Economy
Oman has enjoyed a Strong Economic Fundamentals for the past Fifteen Years (2000-14)
Growth of Non-oil GDP accelerated in the
past 15 years with low inflation and internal and external surpluses
12.0
10.0
8.0
Growth in percent
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2000–11 2012 2013 2014
-2.0 Average
-4.0
Real GDP Growth Non-oil GDP Growth
Inflation Fiscal Balance (percent of GDP)
Current Account Balance (percent of GDP)
Source: OMM, SCP and IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2016.
5
Economic Fundamentals of the Omani Economy
- Oman: Public Capital Stocks and Infrastructure (2005-14)
Quality of infrastructure is high, due to large investment in the past 20 years
7.0
SGP
6.0 UAE
Infrastructure quality, 1-7 (best)
CAN
NOR
5.0 BHR
QAT OMN
LTU GRC SAU
KWT
4.0 AZE RUS IRN TTO
MEX
KAZ COL
CIV DZA
3.0 ECU LBY
BIH VEN
SEN GAB
CMR
2.0 YEM
AGO
TCD
1.0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Real public capital stock per capita (PPP)
6
In the Vision 2020, Oman lays a roadmap for a sustainable economy rooted
in diversification and private sector
THE VISION 2020 IS BASED ON 4 PILLARS INCLUDING DIVERSIFICATION…
Oman Vision 2020
1 2 3 4
Economic Human
Economic Private Sector
Balance and Resource
Diversification Development
Sustainability Development
…REINFORCED BY A SET OF 6 POLICY AGENDA GUIDING PRINCIPLES
Enhancing the Standard of Living of the
Developing Human Resources and
Encouraging the Establishment of an Omani People While Ensuring Social
Upgrading Omani Skills And
Effective & Competitive Private Sector Equality & a Balanced Development
Competences
Across All Regions
Creating a Stable Macroeconomic Enabling Economic Diversification &
Preserving, Developing & Building on
Framework Aimed at the Development Striding Towards an Optimal Use of
the Achievements Accomplished in the
of a Private Sector Capable of Operating Natural Resources and the Geostrategic
Past 25 Years
Efficiently Location Of Oman
Source: Oman Vision 2020
7The 9th Five-Year Development Plan
The 2020 vision paving the way for the Future Vision (Oman 2040)
The 9th Five-Year Plan
Future vision Vision
(Oman 2040) (Oman 2020)
Evaluation of Evaluation of the 8th Plan
Vision 2020 (2011-2015)
• Oman has succeeded in maintaining steady GDP growth in line with its 8th Development Plan targets,
largely driven by non-oil sector growth and combined with declining levels of inflation
• Lessons learnt from Vision 2020 and the 8th Development Plan: Adopt a focused approach for
economic sectors, redouble efforts to develop the private sector, create national champions to drive
growth and build national human capital
8The 9th Five-Year Development Plan
Developed through analysis of 19 economic, support, social sectors and enablers
Macro-Environment 1
Global & Regional Economic
Competitive Advantage Socio-Economic Development Fiscal Framework
Outlook
8*
Core
Oil & Gas
Economic Sectors
1 2 Transport & 3 4 5
ification
Divers-
Manufacturing Tourism Fisheries Mining
Logistics
6 7 8*
Financial Services ICT Utilities
Enablers
9 10
Education Healthcare
11 12
Sustainability Themes
Private Sector Development/SMEs Business Environment
Social &
13 14 15
Omanization Youth and Culture Regional Development
16 17 18 Environmental Protection, Sustainability and
Other Social Development Science, Technology & Innovation Readiness
for Natural Disasters
19 Machinery of Government & E-Government
*Oil & Gas and Energy sectors have been combined
9The 9th Five-Year Development Plan
Policy Targets for the Strategic and Economic Diversification Sectors in the 9th 5YDP
Criteria for choosing the Diversification Economic Sectors
1 Ability to create job opportunities 3 Ability for sustainable and continuous growth
2 High competitiveness internationally 4 Ability to develop growth in other sectors
Mining Fisheries Tourism Transport & Logistics Manufacturing
•Share of the sector in • Share of the sector in
• Share of the sector in • Share of the sector in GDP is 6.2% and is
GDP is 0.4% and is GDP is 0.5%.and is GDP is 3% and is • Share of the sector in
expected to achieve expected to increase GDP is 9.8% and is
expected to achieve expected to achieve to 7% in the Plan.
0.5% by 2020. 0.6% by 2020. 3.3% by 2020. expected to achieve
•Average growth is • Average growth is 11% by 2020.
• Average growth is • Average growth is forecasted at 5.4% per
forecasted at 6.5% per forecasted at 7% per forecasted at 5.3% per • Average growth in the
annum. annum. 9th Plan is 7.8%..
annum. annum.
•Total investment is • Total investment is • Total investment is
• Total investment is • Total investment is
expected to increase to expected to increase expected to increase
expected to increase expected to increase
739 billions OMR . to 6.1 billions OMR in to 2.6 billions OMR.
to 1.1 billions OMR . to 1.6 billions OMR .
the Plan. 10The National Program for Enhancing Economic Diversification (Tanfeedh)
A focused program to accelerate and enable implementation of the 9th 5 year development plan
.. an 8 steps methodology
28-30 November 2016
Strategic Intent: Open Days: KPIs: Auditing and quality
defining the strategic Identifying the KPIs checking
sharing and the
sectors and pillars that the outcomes of the Labs with required to monitor Working with external
program will focus on. implementation parties to validate reported
the public to obtain their
outcomes
views and buy-in
1 3 5 7
Steps to be implemented until Dec- 2016 The start of the implementation phase in January 2017
2 4 6 8
The Labs: Tanfeedh Handbook: Implementation: Publication of results:
Deep dive into the defined Developing a clear and Implementing the plan, Publishing the outcomes
strategic areas to agree on concise implementation resolving challenges and via pre-approved reporting
solutions and plan and sharing it with the utilizing available mechanisms
implementation public and relevant opportunities
requirements stakeholders
18 of September – 26th of
th
October 2016
11For 6 weeks, on a daily average of 250 participants from the private and public sector
By the end of the 6 weeks the labs have produced lab reports with detailed activities for each of the proposed initiatives
… 14 Billion Omani Riyal
Investments by 2020… (32 Billion Euros)
12Strategic Sectors - Logistics
The sector has been growing at a stable rate of ~8% since 2010, of which land & sea transport contributed more than 60%
Logistics GDP (2010-2015)
Billion OMR Sectoral Composition Logistics GDP % by Sector
Total GDP Contribution % Total 3.5% 5.7% Average Growth % 2010-2013*
(2015) GDP
29.1B OMR % Non-Oil
Land and sea transport
9%
GDP 6.6% 9.5%
Air transport
11%
Support auxiliary transport
Non-Oil CAGR 7% services 5%
17.5 1.67
28%
Logistics
10%
1.20 30%
Oil 9%
62%
11.6 61%
2010 2015 2010 2013 13Strategic Sectors - Logistics
Various infrastructure and enabling projects on top of existing developments, which can be syndicated with investors
4
9
7 G Air cargo business development: Invest in
3
2 leasing 3 air freighters
4 8 G Oman as E-Commerce Logistic Hub
3 5 4 6
2 Improve the quality of services by Oman’s
3 G
4 5 Ports
1 5 7
G Sea: Feeder connectivity into the regional
3 market
3 5 G Sea: Increase competitiveness and
4 New service deliverables of local logistics
2 2 Opportunitie 7
s Port Community System
G Level playing field for Free Zones
5
7 1 5 Enhancing cold logistics
3 Rail connectivity network
1 2 Land Connectivity to Saudi
5
Arabia 6 Cargo Village
5 One Stop Shop with full Improve efficiency in air
4 3 8
integration of Bayan cargo clearance process
3 3 4 4 Bonded warehouses for Sohar Port
Making the 9
4 7 most goods in transit
5 6
3 Salalah Port
10 10
Development Project
14Strategic Sectors - Manufacturing
3 promising clusters in Oman: Chemicals, Building Materials and Food
Oman’s export competitiveness
Industrial and Free Zones in Oman Export growth CAGR in 2005-2014 vs world market share; with 2014 export
volume (bubble size); 14 sectors with >100M USD exports are included
Free Zone
Industrial Zone 100
Knowledge 90 Organic
Sohar Freezone Manufactures Chemicals
Sohar Oasis Musccat of metals
80
Export growth CAGR (%)
Buraimi
70
Smail Rusayl Cereals
60 and cereal
products
Sur Metal ores
50
Nizwa and scrap
Al Mazunah Duqm Veg. Plastic Non-iron
40
and
Zone fruit
metals
Manufactured
30 Making the Most fertilisers
Iron and Crude fertiliser
Salalah Free steel and minerals
20
Zone Veg.
Electronics Dairy and eggs
10 oils
Non-metallic minerals
Raysut Seafood
0
-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2
0.6 1.3
0.7
15Strategic Sectors - Manufacturing
Various projects to unlock, and also business opportunities of which can be syndicated with investors
True North
Petrochemical
Metal Ground Breaking Ideas
2
Sohar • Solar manufacturing (to be
Non-metal explored)
Food 1 1 1
New Opportunities
Innovation 2 3 3
Muscat 6• Dice & Mould Production
1 3 7 •1 PET Preform Plant
2 4 7• Wheels Production
Suwaiq •2 Ammonia Fertiliser
Sunainah 3 4 5 6 1• New Grey Cement
6 •3 Catalysing Petrochemical Factory
Safa 2 Quriyat Downstream
2• White Cement Factory
•3 Bituminous Waterproofing
2 Sur 3• Cement Grinding
Membrane
5• Seafood Processing &
•2 Alu. Wheels Manufacturing
Canning
Expansion 6
• Vegetables Processing
•3 Valves Manufacturing
•4 Flanges Manufacturing
2 •5 Production of Scaffolding & Parts
4 Bar Al Hikman Making the Most
Al Wusta 1• Development and Innovation of 3• Integrated Dairy Farm
Duqm
Date Products Poultry Production 4• Enhancing Poultry
1 2 2• Aquaculture Development 4• OCTAL PET Resin Capacity
Salalah Improvement
3 5
1• Sohar Alu. Phase 2
2 4
• Gas Market Liberalisation 1• Advanced Manufacturing Research
Enablers • Environment Standards Centre
• Energy Diversification 2• Industrial Innovation Centre 16Strategic Sectors - Tourism
Oman’s Tourism sector has its strengths in its culture and heritage, and exceptional natural endowment
• Rich culture, traditions, heritage & values
Culture and • Many cultural attractions including forts and castles, souks, oil alleys & ancient mosques
Heritage • Forts and castles classified as World Heritage Sites such as: Bahla Fort and Wall, Jabreen, The Five Falajs, and
the Bat Tombs.
• Strategic, central location accessible to potential tourists from the East & West
Exceptional
Natural • Exceptional natural sights placing it at an advantage relative to GCC peers, sights include:
Endowment - Natural reserves & water springs
- Natural caves, Mountains & several islands
20Strategic Sectors - Tourism
Oman’s Tourism sector has its strengths in its culture and heritage, and exceptional natural endowment
21Despite the challenges posed by global economic uncertainties
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