6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
2018 Recap
• Number of vehicles recalled in the U.S. has stabilized since elevated activity during 2014 - 2016
   • Number of individual campaigns greater than years of exceptional activity
   • Number of vehicles affected by recalls is consistent with prior year, and vehicles involved in
     campaigns other than Takata inflator recalls is consistent with activity since 2015.
   • Approximately 24 million vehicles recalled exclusive of Takata inflators

• Six non-Takata campaigns in 2018 affected more than 1 million vehicles (46% of non-Takata recalls):
    • FCA electrical system: a short circuit in the vehicle’s wiring may prevent cruise control from
      disengaging (4.8 million vehicles)
    • Ford seatbelts: sparks from the deployment of the front seatbelt pretensioner may ignite materials
      within the B-pillar area (1.6 million vehicles)
    • Ford steering wheel: steering wheel may detach while driving (1.3 million vehicles)
    • Ford fuel system: cannister purge valve may malfunction and cause an engine to stall while driving
      without the ability to restart the vehicle (1.3 million vehicles)
    • FCA latches: tailgate latch actuator limiter tab may fracture and cause tailgate to unlatch while driving
      (1.1 million vehicles)
    • GM steering: electric power steering assist may be lost momentarily (1 million vehicles)

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
2018 Recap

2018 Recall Sizes
• Largest recall of 2018:
    • Issued by FCA related to 2014 – 2018 Dodge, RAM, Jeep and Chrysler vehicles may
      experience electrical short preventing cruise control from disengaging
    • 4,846,885 vehicles affected

• Smallest recalls of 2018
   • 2 vehicles recalled by Bugatti and Mercedes-Benz

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
2018 Recap

Sources:
Traffic Volume Trends November 2018, Federal Highway Administration1
Number of motor vehicles registered in the United States from 1990 to 2017, statista2

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
2018 Recap

Source: Average Age of Automobiles and Trucks in Operation in the United States, Bureau of Transportation Statistics3

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
2018 Recap

Source: Carfax Vehicle Recall Check4

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
2018 Recap

Takata Update
• All remaining vehicles were scheduled to be recalled by 12/31/2018 (all unrepaired non-desiccated PSAN) 5
• All like-for-like replacements scheduled to be recalled by 12/31/2019 5
• On December 21, 2018, the Independent Monitor of the Takata Recalls issued a second report about the state of the
  Takata recalls
    • As of October 2018, approximately 17 million vehicles still had unrepaired defective Takata airbag inflators
    • The Report discusses initiatives implemented by manufacturers resulting in unprecedented increases in recall
      completion percentages, especially for the older and more dangerous vehicles affected:
      • Improving data quality
      • Segmented analysis
      • Communications
      • Overcoming owner inconveniences
      • Dealer engagement
      • Third party engagement
      • Canvassing 6

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
2018 Recap

Takata Update
• As of January 18, 2019, the overall recall completion percentage for Takata recalls was 65% 5
• The completion percentages for Priority Groups 1 – 9 are available at NHTSA.gov :

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
Data Analysis and Review:
Recall and Defect Overview

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6th Annual State of Automotive Recalls Summit
Recall and Defect Overview

Recall Data Analysis: Process and Background
• Information downloaded from NHTSA website (www.nhtsa.gov) for historical recalls dating back to 1966

• NHTSA data provided detail regarding NHTSA campaign number, manufacturer, model and model year,
  component, total units affected, and certain additional fields

• Stout analyzed recall trends for OEMs across various component groupings and timeframes

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Recall and Defect Overview

Year in Review: Stabilization in the Industry

• Takata inflator recalls have abated, providing insight into industry recall activity
• Units affected by recalls in 2018 nearly identical to 2017
• Non-Takata inflator activity is consistent over past four years
    • Approximately 24 million vehicles recalled for non-Takata inflator defects in 2018
• Despite stabilization in number of vehicles recalled, number of campaigns has increased
    • Average recall size declining

• Airbag recalls not associated with defective Takata inflators still represent the greatest number of recalls,
  however electrical recalls affected more vehicles in 2018 (significantly influenced by FCA cruise control
  recall)

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Recall and Defect Overview

Analysis by Size of Recall
• Large recalls may be the most newsworthy, but historically have not been the most prevalent
    • 65% (on a unique campaign basis) involve fewer than 10,000 units in 2018, many with significantly
      less
    • However, recalls of greater than 100,000 units consistent involve more than 85% of vehicles affected
      by recall in any year.

• There has been a steady increase in the number of recalls involving fewer than 100,000 units since 2014
   • Recalls over 100,000 units represented less than 20% of all unique recalls each year since 2014.

• We observe certain differences for large recalls as compared to small recalls, such as
   • Differences in completion percentages
   • Differences in age of vehicles involved
   • Differences in frequency of suppliers being named in DIRs

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Supplier Identification: 573 Letter Review

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Supplier Identification

Part 573 Letter Review
• For each recall initiated, OEMs are required to submit a Part 573 Report that serves as notification to
  the U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that a defect
  related to motor vehicle safety or noncompliance with Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards exists
• Required sections of report include:
   • Manufacturer, Designated Agent and other Chain of Distribution Information
   • Identification of the Recall Population and its Size
   • Description of the Defect or Noncompliance and Chronology of Events
   • The Remedy Program and its Schedule
   • Manufacturer of Defective Component

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Analysis of Part 537 Letters

Supplier Identification: Observations and Conclusions
• Review of 573 Reports indicates continued trend of more frequent supplier identification, particularly
  for certain components
   • Both in terms of number of campaigns and as a proportion of total campaigns
   • Airbags, electronic stability control, and hybrid propulsion represent components where supplier is
     most likely to be identified
• Proportion of suppliers identified in recalls involving design related defects is declining, however
  suppliers named in manufacturing related defects at levels not seen since 2008

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Recall Completion Percentage
Overview

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Recall Completion Percentage Overview

Recall Completion Percentage Review
• NHTSA requires that beginning the quarter after the start of a recall, the manufacturer must submit a Quarterly
  Progress Report for six consecutive calendar quarters. The deadline for the report is the 30th day of the month
  following the quarter’s end.
• In analyzing this data, Stout linked Quarterly Progress Reports to NHTSA’s larger recall database using campaign
  numbers in order to analyze trends in completion rates across different subsets of recall data.
• Required Data to be disclosed includes:
    • NHTSA-assigned recall identification number
    • Manufacturer-assigned recall identification number, if applicable
    • Various dates of notification for dealers and purchasers
    • Number of items involved in the recall
    • Number of items at respective quarter’s end that have been remedied
    • Number of items as respective quarter’s end that have been inspected and determined to not need a remedy
    • Number of items unreachable for inspection
    • Number of items returned and/or repaired by dealers, retailers and distributors

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Recall Completion Percentage Overview

Recall Completion Percentage - Highlights
• Three recent campaigns achieved 100% completion:
   • Model Year 2016 Honda Clarity –
      • Fuel cell control unit may cause loss of power
      • 471 vehicles affected

   • Model Year 2019 Subaru Ascent –
      • Missing spot welds in B-pillar area
      • 293 vehicles affected

   • Model Year 2018 Rolls-Royce Ghost –
      • Head airbags may not fully inflate
      • 3 vehicles affected

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Recall Completion Percentage Overview

Recall Completion Percentage - Highlights
•   Older and larger campaigns that have achieved notable completion percentages:
     • Model Year 2001 - 2002 Dodge Dakota, Durango, Ram van and Ram pick-up trucks vehicles –
         • The ignition / park shift interlock system may become inoperative, allowing the shifter to be moved out of
           the “Park” position with the ignition key removed; this can also allow the ignition key to be removed when
           the shifter has not been placed in the “Park” position.
         • 576,418 vehicles affected
         • 6 - 8 years old at time of recall
         • 80.8% completion

     • Model Year 1999 - 2000 Chrysler Cirrus, Dodge Stratus and Plymouth Breeze vehicles–
         • Power steering fluid leakage in the presence of an ignition source may result in an under hood fire.
         • 216,299 vehicles affected
         • 6 - 8 years old at time of recall
         • 87.0% completion

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Recall Completion Percentage Overview

Recall Completion Percentage – Influential Factors
• In addition to specific differences observed for certain OEMs or component groups, certain factors appear to have a
  universal impact on the ultimate completion percentages for recalls:
    • Vehicle Age: Completion percentages for recalls involving older vehicles are generally lower, sometimes
      significantly. This impact becomes more pronounced as vehicles get older.

    • Recall Size: Completion percentages for larger recalls (>100,000 units) are often approximately 5-10% lower
      than for smaller-sized recalls.

    • Vehicle Type: Completion percentages for trucks and minivans appear to perform differently than for sedans and
      full-size vehicles.

    • Owner Ability to Self-Diagnosis: If the vehicle owner can easily self-diagnosis whether the vehicle suffers from
      the defect, completion percentages may suffer.

    • Outreach Efforts: New ways of engaging with vehicle owners is demonstrating success – email, television
      advertising, print advertising, mobile apps, etc.

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Recall Completion Overview

Recall Completion Percentage – Keys to Further Recall Success
• On December 21, 2018, the Independent Monitor of the Takata Recalls issued a second report about the state of the
  Takata recalls.6 The Report discusses initiatives implemented by manufacturers resulting in unprecedented
  increases in recall completion percentages, especially for the older and more dangerous vehicles affected:
      • Improving data quality: frequently refresh and supplement vehicle owner registration records
      • Segmented analysis: Categorize affected vehicle owner populations by available attributes and develop targeted
        communications
      • Communications: send outreach that is: frequent, personalized, bilingual, conveyed through multiple channels, conveys
        urgency and importance, contains a call to action, uses eye catching graphics, conveys repair is free, clearly identifies
        services offered
      • Overcoming owner inconveniences: Offer free services that minimize repair inconvenience
      • Dealer engagement: Proactively engage and motivate dealers to conduct recall outreach
      • Third party engagement: Use DMVs, IRFs, insurers, auction houses and used car dealers to increase awareness and
        facilitate repairs
      • Canvassing: Engage in door to door canvassing of owners older unrepaired vehicles where repeated prior outreach has
        been ineffective

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Recall Completion Percentage Overview

Implementing Recall Completion Benchmarking
• Completion percentage benchmarking can be utilized by OEMs and suppliers to:
   • Monitor the pace of completion in active campaigns
   • Ensure compliance with regulatory and enforcement actions
   • Plan replacement part inventories and dealer service capacity
   • Estimate potential financial exposure in cost recovery actions
   • Identify appropriate risk mitigation and insurance strategies

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Electronic Component Defects

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Electronic Components: Industry Highlights
• U.S. DOT released the policy document Automated Vehicles 3.0: Preparing for the Future of
  Transportation in September 2018,7 containing principles to guide future policy:
   • Multimodal safety guidance
   • Clarification of policy and roles
   • How to work with DOT as technology evolves
   • Integration of DOT administrations
• In October 2018, Pennsylvania’s Governor signed an act which allows for “platooning” of two or three
  buses, military vehicles, or motor carriers, using a combination of V2V communications systems and
  vehicle automation to control acceleration and braking to travel in close proximity.8
   • Reduces aerodynamic drag, resulting in fuel savings and reduced emissions
   • Reduces excessive braking, lessening impacts on infrastructure and decreasing congestion

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Electronic Components: Industry Highlights
• In January 2018, GM submitted a petition to NHTSA to put zero-emissions driverless
  cars on public roads beginning in 2019.
   • Vehicles would be built on the Chevy Bolt EV platform.
   • Seeking permission to meet 16 safety requirements “in a different way.” 9
• Now open to public comment on the proposed exemptions for the next 60 days.

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Electronic Components: Analysis
• Our analysis of automotive electronics highlights the role of software in the failure or remedy of
  electronic defects.
• Stout’s analysis has focused on the following categories of defects:
   • Integrated Electrical Components (“IECs”) – Failure of electrical components due to physical defect.
     Includes defects related to water intrusion, wiring failure, etc.
   • Software Defect – Failure of components related to defect in operating software
   • Software Integration – Failure results from software interfacing with other components or systems in
     the vehicle
   • Software Remedy – Software flash or replacement is identified as the appropriate defect remedy

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Electronic Components: Observations
• Recalls of electronic components have declined in 2018, however the number of campaigns involving
  software based defects continues to increase
• IEC recalls have steadily declined over the past three years, while software based recalls have remained
  stable
• One recall resulted in a significant increase in software integration activity in 2018:
   • FCA electrical system (4.8 million vehicles): A short circuit in the vehicle’s wiring may cause the
     system to stop communicating while the cruise control is active. The fault handling strategy in the
     ECM software does not remove positive torque requests in the event of the electrical short.
   • FCA performed a software flash on the ECM to improve the fault handling strategy so any torque
     requests will be cancelled in the event of a short circuit during a positive torque request

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Electronic Components: Defect Emergence and Tail Risk
• Electronic content in vehicles has been expanding in terms of amount of this content, and the
  applications in which it is utilized.
• In an evolving technological landscape, manufacturers and suppliers may struggle to predict patterns of
  failure and understand the duration of their potential exposure to failure of new components and
  technologies.
• While reviewing the individual defect descriptions associated with electronic recalls, Stout observed that
  software-based defects (software defects and software integration) often appeared early in vehicle life
  and infrequently after the first two years.
• Electronic defects which involve the physical component (software remedy and IEC) were observed to be
  less frequently concentrated around the early years of vehicle life.
• Stout has plotted the frequency of software-based and non-software-based electronic defects on heat
  maps to visualize the emergence of these defects by model year.
   • Red indicates the greatest number of campaigns by recall year and model year; green indicates the
     lowest.

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Emergence of Software-Based Recalls
                                                Recall Year
MAX MY       2009     2010     2011     2012     2013      2014     2015     2016     2017   2018
2009            4        0        0        0        0         0        0        0        0      0
2010            1        1        1        0        0         0        0        0        0      0
2011       n/a           1        3        0        0         1        0        2        1      0
2012       n/a      n/a           1        4        1         0        0        0        0      0
2013       n/a      n/a      n/a           2        3         1        0        0        0      1
2014       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a           4        11        3        0        2      2
2015       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a           1         5       20        0        0      1
2016       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a       n/a           2        9        0      1
2017       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a       n/a      n/a           5       11      4
2018       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a       n/a      n/a      n/a           5     13
2019       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a         7

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Emergence of Non-Software-Based Recalls
                                                Recall Year
MAX MY       2009     2010     2011     2012     2013      2014     2015     2016     2017   2018
2009           47       12        7        8        4         3        4        8        5      4
2010           31       72       15        6        8         6        8       10        5      5
2011       n/a          37       51        9       12        18       10       21        6      6
2012       n/a      n/a          35       71       22        10       10       10       22     13
2013       n/a      n/a      n/a          33       76        27       15       11        4     18
2014       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a          36       102       28       19       15      6
2015       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a           81      120       30       14      8
2016       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a       n/a          53      133       37     14
2017       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a       n/a      n/a          66      136     21
2018       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a       n/a      n/a           1       44    140
2019       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a       n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a        66

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Electronic Components: Defect Emergence and Tail Risk - Observations
• Both software-based and non-software-based recalls exhibit their greatest emergence between years 1
  and 2 of vehicle life.
• The software-based recalls show little emergence after year 2 (limited tail risk), while the non-software-
  based recalls present a moderate level of recall emergence throughout all years in the analysis
  (continued tail risk through all 10 years presented)
• Software-based recalls are therefore more likely to:
   • Be more predictable (limited tail risk)
   • Involve smaller populations (less production history)
   • Achieve higher recall remedy completion (newer and smaller vehicle population)
• Conversely, non-software-based recalls may:
   • Be less predictable (longer tail)
   • Involve larger population (more production history)
   • Achieve lower recall remedy completion (potentially older and larger vehicle population)

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Remedies for Electronic Component Defects
• Electronic components offer unique opportunities for vehicle safety, improved fuel economy and
  performance, and driver convenience.
• While the nature and scope of potential consequences of electronic component defects is still developing,
  we have insight into types of remedies available.
• In addition to studying the nature of the defects associated with electronic components, Stout has
  reviewed and analyzed the remedy descriptions for each of these campaigns.
• Our analysis considers:
   • Remedy procedures
   • Remedy time
   • Delivery methods
   • Completion percentages

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Remedy Procedures
• Our analysis considers electronic defects involving IEC devices and those that relate to the software
  controlling or interfacing with those devices.
• By the nature of our analysis, remedies of IEC devices involve inspection, repair, or replacement of the
  IECs. OEMs’ and suppliers’ exposures in these remedies are influenced by the cost of remedy
  components, service labor times, and the number of vehicles that are repaired.
   • Repairs to these components are not completed with software remedies.
   • These nature of these exposures are not substantially different from those faced by defects found in
     traditional components.
• Remedies of software-based defects may be remedied with a combination of replacement of the defective
  component and/or an update to the software affecting the defective component. The past 10 years of
  remedies for software-based defects indicate:
   • 90% involve software-only remedies
   • 7% involve a combination of software remedy and component repair or replacement
   • 3% involve only the repair or replacement of an affected component

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Remedy Time
• Remedy times for the inspection, repair, or replacement of defective components may be difficult to
  estimate or predict without specific remedy instructions:
   • Type of component
   • Location of component
   • Nature of defect
   • Nature of repair
• Remedy times for software-based defects are more standard across a variety of defects.
• Stout gathered Technical Service Bulletins and reviewed remedy instructions for all software remedy
  based recalls in 2018. We observed:
   • Range of software remedy times: 0.2 – 2.0 hours
   • Average software remedy time: 0.6 hours
• Remedy times typically provide for driving vehicle in / out of service bay, stabilizing the vehicle power
  supply, connecting the service tool to the vehicle’s USB or data port, and performing the update.

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Remedy Delivery Method
• Most electronic defects, including those involving software remedies are performed by a service
  technician at a dealership, requiring owners to make a service appointment and go to dealerships.
• Software remedies do provide opportunities for repairs to be performed without vehicles being taken to
  the dealership:
   • USB flash drive
   • Over-the-air (OTA)
• To date there are only limited examples of USB flash drive or OTA delivery of software remedies for
  defects resulting in recall:
   • USB flash drive: FCA radio software vulnerability (15V461 and 15V508)
   • OTA: Tesla overheating vehicle charger (14V006)
• GM and Ford plan to have most vehicles able to accept OTA remedies by 2020.10

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Remedy Delivery Method
• Delivery of software remedies outside of a dealership are more commonly found among service
  campaigns other than recalls (TSBs).
• Most of these updates involve non-critical updates (e.g., infotainment, navigation map updates, and
  sound system changes).
• Between 2017 and 2018, Stout identified 8 TSBs involving OTA updates:
• Two appear to describe a notification to dealers of a primary remedy issued over-the-air to vehicle
  owners, including one pilot program tested by GM.
• However, several service bulletins describe diagnosing and repairing failed OTA update attempts:
   • One FCA OTA caused vehicle radios to become inoperative
   • Three Honda / Acura service bulletins related to displaying error codes after attempted OTA updates.

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Remedy Completion Percentages
• Remedy completion percentages for electronic defects are higher than those of all other recalls during
  the period 2008 - 2017:
   • Industry average= 76%
   • Electronic defects average = 79%
• This is influenced in large part by the younger age of vehicles affected by electronic components and the
  relatively convenience of the remedies available.
• Among electronic defects, we observed a wider disparity between those recalls involving IEC defects and
  software related defects over the period 2008 - 2017:
   • IEC = 76% (consistent with industry average)
   • Software integration = 81%
   • Software defect = 84%
   • Software remedy = 86%

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Remedy Completion Percentages
• Software remedy completion percentages are further enhanced by the convenience associated with
  remedies delivered directly to owners (USB flash drive and OTA)
• While limited recall data exists for these campaigns, we can look at three such campaigns that have been
  executed to date:
   • 14V006: Tesla charger (21k vehicles affected)– 99.7% completion
   • 15V461: FCA radio software vulnerability (1.4M vehicles affected) – 99.0% completion
   • 15V508: FCA radio software vulnerability (7.8k vehicles affected) – 98.8% completion
• Each of these campaigns involved vehicles that were 3 years old or less at time of recall and reflect a
  wide range of campaign sizes.
• The nature of the remedy in these campaigns minimized owner inconvenience which provided for high
  remedy completion percentages.

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Electronic Recalls and Software Recalls

Observations and Conclusions
• Recalls involving software-based defects, including the number of vehicles affected, at record levels in
  2018, a trend that we expect to continue.
• These defects demonstrate more consistent emergence patterns and shorter tail.
• Software-based defects also provide more opportunities for software remedies:
   • Most often do not involve component repair or replacement
   • Limited service labor times
   • Opportunities for alternative remedy delivery.
• Electronic defects exhibit higher recall completion percentages than industry averages, especially for
  software-based defects.

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

Nature of Tire Failures
• Each year about 33,000 tire-related passenger vehicle crashes occur, resulting in 19,000 injuries.11
• In 2017, 738 people died in tire-related motor vehicle traffic fatalities.12
• In 2014, the National Transportation Safety Board identified the following concerns related to tire
  safety:
   • Problems with the tire registration and safety recall system;
   • Failure to establish the current level of crash risk posed by tire aging and lack of consumer guidance
     on the issue;
   • Poor tire maintenance practices by consumers;
   • Barriers to technological innovation that could prevent or mitigate tire-related crashes. 11
• Tires are susceptible to age and climate-related deterioration:
   • “Tires are primarily degrading from the inside-out, due [to] permeation and reaction of the
     pressurized oxygen within the tire structure, with rates proportional to temperature.” 13
• Large body of scientific evidence indicates that tires expire after six years.14
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Tire Recalls

Tire Recalls - Background
• Tire manufacturers are subject to the reporting and notification requirements of Parts 573 and 577 of the
  Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards.
• Tire manufacturers are also subject to the tire identification and recordkeeping requirements of Part 574
• The tire labeling requirement applies to all new, retreated tires and non-pneumatic tires and tire
  assemblies, and requires that manufacturers identify:
   • Plant code identifying the manufacturer or retreader;
   • Manufacturer’s code containing significant characteristics of the tire;
   • Date code
   • Retreaded tire mark (as applicable)
• Tire manufacturers are required to remedy defective or nonconforming tires within the first 180 days
  after the later of 1) an owner’s receipt of a notification letter, or 2) the owner’s receipt of notification that
  a replacement is available.

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Tire Recalls

Tire Recalls - Background
• Tire recalls initiated by tire manufacturers differ from vehicle recalls involving tires. Tire recalls initiated
  by tire manufacturers typically involve an issue of safety or noncompliance related to the manufacture,
  materials, or labeling of the tire itself.
• Vehicle recalls involving tires often include:
   • Tires damaged during vehicle assembly
   • Tire pressure monitoring systems
   • Installation of incorrect tires
• In addition to the vehicle recalls involving the tire defects described above, Stout has reviewed the recalls
  initiated by tire manufacturers.
• We have excluded certain unique conditions related to trailer tires, motorcycles, labeling, etc., in order
  to focus on conditions that made lead to failures or safety defects involving light vehicles.

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

Tire Recalls - Observations
• Moderate level of tire recalls each year
   • Typically about 9 recalls per year
   • Average of 460k units affected per year
• Most tire recalls affect 10,000 or fewer units
   • Average tire recall affects 54,000 units
• Majority of campaigns over past 10 years (55%) relate to tread / belt defects:
   • Insufficient tread base
   • Chunking / cracking
   • Tread separation

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

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Tire Recalls

Tire Recalls – Completion Percentages
• Overall completion percentages for tire recalls involving passenger vehicles is approximately 30%.
   • This is significantly below the industry average for vehicle recalls
• Tire recall completion percentages are significantly impacted by age
   • Average completion percentage for tires older than five years is less than 5%
• There are several characteristics of tire recalls that impact completion percentages:
   • Difficulty locating registered owners
   • Limited requirements of independent dealer / distributors to collect registration information
   • Limitation on manufacturer’s requirement to remedy
   • Periodic replacement of tires by vehicles owners

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Tire Recalls

Tire Recalls – Observations and Conclusions
• Tire recalls are generally small and infrequent
• Tire equipment recalls are unique, and face different barriers to successful remedy completion
• Importance of engaging other stakeholders and understanding where risks remain
   • Enhanced and creative outreach
   • Data sharing with retailers, dealers, etc.
   • Raising awareness
   • Understanding risk profiles

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Other Indicators of Defect

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Other Indicators of Defect

Beyond U.S. Recall Data

 • NHTSA recalls represent a focal point in the study of automotive component defects:
    • Robust data set
    • Specific vehicle model and production population data
    • Detailed defect, consequence, and remedy verbatim descriptions
 • While robust, this data is limited to safety defects that rise to the level of recalls.
 • Stout has identified, collected, and analyzed additional sources of defect data to study
   the emergence and patterns of other component defects that may not result in safety
   recalls.

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Other Indicators of Defect

Beyond U.S. Recall Data
 • Stout’s analysis includes these other sources of component defect information:
    • Earning Warning Reporting (“EWR”) – Pursuant to the TREAD Act, NHTSA requires manufacturers
      of motor vehicles to report certain specified information about each incident involving deaths and
      injuries.
    • NHTSA Defect Investigations – NHTSA also provides a database of all defect investigations
      conducted by the agency from 1972 through the present. Investigations may result in safety recalls, or
      may be designed to assess the scope or effectiveness of current recalls.
    • Motor Vehicle Defect Petitions (“MVDP”) – MVDPs represent consumer submitted petitions to
      NHTSA requesting the investigation of a potential issue. These petitions are reviewed by NHTSA, and
      if accepted can result in the launch of an investigation.
    • Petitions for Inconsequential Noncompliance – Vehicle and component manufacturers are permitted
      to request from NHTSA an exemption from the notification and remedy requirements of the safety
      act, due to the inconsequential impact of a known defect on vehicle safety.
    • Technical Service Bulletins (“TSBs”) – Service procedures issued by OEMs to service technicians for
      the diagnosis and repair of known defects. Defects identified in TSBs may subsequently result in
      recalls.
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Other Indicators of Defect

Beyond U.S. Recall Data
 • International Recall Data – In addition to U.S. recall and component defect data, Stout has collected and
   analyzed recall data from the following non-U.S. jurisdictions:
    • Australia
    • Brazil
    • Canada
    • Germany
    • Japan
    • United Kingdom

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Other Indicators of Defect

Conclusions
 • Analysis of many data sets can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the risk of component
   defect.
 • U.S. recall data is robust and instructive, but analysis of other data sets provides additional perspectives:
    • Nascent field incidents
    • Defect and component failure patterns or other potential safety concerns identified by NHTSA
    • Concerns of the public
    • Insights into NHTSA’s approach to risk assessment
    • OEM communications to technicians
    • Incidence of automotive component defects abroad
 • Understanding of component defect is enhanced by insightful analysis of multiple data sets.

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State of Automotive Recalls Summit: Conclusions

 • Record number of U.S. light vehicle recalls identified in 2018
 • Light vehicle recall activity appears to be stabilizing: 25M – 30M vehicles affected per year
 • Average recall size continues to decline – a sign that the industry is proactively identifying and
   responding to defects
 • Recall completion percentages continue to improve. Early results indicate that recalls initiated in 2018
   are on track to exceed recent remedy completion experience.
    • Regulatory focus
    • Industry reaction to recent recall activity
 • Software-based defects increased significantly in 2018, but provide more opportunities mitigating
   exposure to remedy costs while enhancing remedy completion
 • Engaging stakeholders and information sharing provides a path to recall remedy improvements
 • An informed understanding of recall risk is enhanced by industry expertise and comprehensive analysis
   of multiple sources of automotive component defect data

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Contact Information
For further information regarding this presentation please contact a Stout representative:

                     Robert Levine                                                   Raymond Roth
                     Senior Manager                                                  Director
                     +1.248.432.1294                                                 +1.248.432.1337
                     rlevine@stout.com                                               rlevine@stoutadvisory.com

                     Neil Steinkamp
                     Managing Director
                     +1.646.807.4229
                     nsteinkamp@stout.com

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Footnotes
1 – https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/18novtvt/18novtvt.pdf
2 – https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/
3 – https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states
4 – https://www.carfax.com/recall/
https://www.nhtsa.gov/equipment/takata-recall-spotlight
5 – https://www.nhtsa.gov/recall-spotlight/takata-air-bags
6 – https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/update_on_the_state_of_the_takata_airbag_recalls-tag_0.pdf
 7 – https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/policy-initiatives/automated-vehicles/320711/preparing-future-
transportation-automated-vehicle-30.pdf
8 – Pennsylvania Department of Transportation Request for Information for Vehicle Platooning, RFI Number 3518RF101
9 – https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2018/01/12/gm-driverless-car-fleet-cruise-av/109381232/
10 – https://www.consumerreports.org/automotive-technology/automakers-embrace-over-the-air-updates-can-we-trust-digital-car-
repair/
11 – https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety-studies/documents/SIR1502.pdf
12 – https://www.nhtsa.gov/equipment/tires
13 – https://www.nhtsa.gov/DOT/NHTSA/NVS/Public%20Meetings/SAE/2010/MacIsaac_SAE2010.pdf
14 – http://www.tiresafetygroup.com/tires-expire-in-six-years/

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