2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - The Inside Track - Ipsos
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2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION The Inside Track Chris Jackson, Vice President 01/16/2020 © 2019 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
SUMMARY 1. Vital Statistics - Key Public Opinion Indicators 2. Impeachment & President Donald Trump 3. Democratic Primary 4. Looking Ahead 2 ‒ © Ipsos
Vital Statistics 3 ‒ © Ipsos
American Consumer Confidence Index
Ipsos Global Economic Indicators – U.S. National Indices
National Average Index
Expectations Index
80 Jobs Index
75
73.3
70
66.5
65
62.6
60
55
50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
4 ‒ © Ipsos
Direction of the Country
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right
direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t know
70%
60%
57%
50%
40%
30% 30%
20%
12%
10%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
5 ‒ © Ipsos
Main Problem Facing the Country
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
Healthcare
45% Immigration
Economy generally
40%
Environment
35% Terrorism
Unemployment/jobs
30%
25%
19%
20%
10%
12%
15%
8%
10%
8%
5% 4%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Reuters/Ipsos Data
6 ‒ © Ipsos
Main Problem Facing the Country
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
All Registered Democratic Republican Independent
All Adults
Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters
Economy generally 12% 12% 10% 15% 18%
Unemployment / lack of jobs 4% 3% 2% 1% 4%
War / foreign conflicts 8% 8% 9% 7% 9%
Immigration 10% 11% 6% 20% 3%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks 8% 8% 6% 11% 9%
Healthcare 19% 21% 27% 12% 24%
Energy issues 2% 1% 1% 1% 4%
Morality 8% 8% 5% 13% 4%
Education 5% 5% 6% 2% 6%
Crime 4% 4% 3% 5% 4%
Environment 8% 8% 13% 3% 3%
Other 8% 9% 10% 7% 7%
Don’t know 4% 2% 1% 1% 7%
Reuters/Ipsos Data January 13-14. 2020
7 ‒ © Ipsos
Perceptions of President Trump – Iran and Impeachment 8 ‒ © Ipsos
Jan 20-24, 2017
Feb 10-14, 2017
March 3-7, 2017
9 ‒ © Ipsos
Reuters/Ipsos Data
March 24-28, 2017
April 21-25, 2017
May 12-16, 2017
June 2-6, 2017 Total Approval
June 21-27, 2017
Total Disapproval
July 14-18, 2017
Aug 4-8, 2017
Aug 25-29, 2017
Sept 15-19, 2017
Oct 6-10, 2017
Oct 27-31, 2017
Nov 17-21, 2017
Dec 8-12, 2017
Dec 29, 2017 - Jan 2, 2018
Jan 19-23, 2018
Feb 9-13, 2018
March 2-6, 2018
March 23-27, 2018
April 13-17, 2018
May 4-8, 2018
May 25-29, 2018
June 15-19, 2018
July 6- 10, 2018
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating
July 27-31, 2018
August 15-21
Sept 5-11, 2018
Sept 26-Oct 2, 2018
October 17-23, 2018
November 14-20, 2018
December 5-11, 2018
December 26, 2018-…
January 16-22, 2019
February 6-13, 2019
March 6 - 12, 2019
March 26 - April 1, 2019
April 17-23, 2019
May 10-14, 2019
May 29-June 5, 2019
June 24-25, 2019
July 15-16, 2019
August 1-5, 2019
August 26-27, 2019
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
Sept 16-17, 2019
Oct 7-8, 2019
Oct 28-29, 2019
Nov 18-19, 2019
Dec 9-10, 2019
January 13-14, 2020
39%
56%Donald Trump’s Approval Rating by Party Identification
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
All Americans
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
81%
39%
29%
11%
2017 2018 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
10 ‒ © IpsosDonald Trump’s Approval Rating on Iran
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues?...Iran
Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
Oil tankers damaged in
Gulf of Oman,
Administration suspects
Iran. Houthi rebels attack
Saudi Oil Facilities U.S. drone strike kills
Iranian Gen. Qassem
Soleimani
29% 39% 35%
34% 31% 28% 32%
29% 29%
21% 23%
16% 16% 17% 14% 15% 15% 18%
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 January 6-7, 2020 January 13-14, 2020
Iran strikes U.S. airbase,
Iranian proxies kill U.S.
no casualties. U.S. does
contractor and wound
not respond with any
U.S. servicemembers
further military action
Reuters/Ipsos Data
11 ‒ © IpsosImpact of War on Elections in the United States
War/Conflict During Election President Re-Elected?
World War II Franklin D. Roosevelt Re-elected
Vietnam Lyndon B. Johnson Chose not to run
Bosnia Bill Clinton Re-elected
George W. Bush Re-elected
Iraq and Afghanistan/
War on Terror
Barack Obama Re-elected
12 ‒ © IpsosImpeachment Timeline
May 2019 –
January 2019 Mueller announces January 2020 –
– Roger Stone that the November 2019 House of
is arrested investigation is September 2019 – Public Representative
following an complete, Mueller – Whistleblower testimony for set to send
indictment from later agrees to files complaint the articles of
the Mueller testify before the concerning phone impeachment Impeachment to
report House call inquiry begins the Senate
July 2019 – October 2019 December 2019 January
April Trump and – House – House votes to 2020 –
2019 – Ukrainian begins impeach Senate will
Mueller president speak Impeachment President Trump likely begin
report is over the phone Inquiry on 2 charges trial the week
made of January
public 20, 2020
13 ‒ © IpsosPublic Poll Trend on Trump Impeachment 2019-2020 FiveThirtyEight Poll Average 14 ‒ © Ipsos
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Perceptions on Impeachment
Which of the following comes closest to your opinion? Now that the House of Representatives voted to
impeach President Trump, which of the following do
you believe should happen?
President Trump should be removed from office
December 16-17, 2019 President Trump should be formally
All Adults reprimanded, also known as censure, but
Trump should not be removed from office
President Trump should be The charges against President Trump should be
46%
impeached December 18, 2019 - House
dismissed
President Trump should of Representatives Voted to
42% 45%
NOT be impeached Impeach President Trump
Don't know 12%
31%
14%
Dec 18-19,2019 January 6-7, 2020 January 13-14, 2020
Reuters/Ipsos Data
© 2020 Ipsos 15ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Perceptions on Impeachment
Now that the House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump, which of the following do you believe
should happen?
All Registered Democratic Republican Independent
Adults Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters
President Trump should be removed from office 45% 45% 74% 9% 47%
President Trump should be formally
reprimanded, also known as censure, but Trump 14% 14% 14% 12% 17%
should not be removed from office
The charges against President Trump should be
31% 34% 6% 72% 27%
dismissed
Don't know 10% 8% 6% 7% 8%
Reuters/Ipsos Data
© 2020 Ipsos 16ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Perceptions on Impeachment
How much do you agree or disagree with the following?
President Trump is guilty of abusing the office of the president
Democratic Registered Republican Registered Independent Registered
All Adults Registered Voters
Voters Voters Voters
Strongly agree 42% 44% 73% 9% 45%
Somewhat agree 13% 12% 13% 11% 13%
Somewhat disagree 11% 10% 6% 15% 8%
Strongly disagree 27% 29% 5% 62% 26%
Don't know 7% 5% 3% 4% 9%
TOTAL AGREE 55% 56% 85% 20% 58%
TOTAL DISAGREE 38% 39% 11% 77% 33%
President Trump is guilty of obstructing Congress
Democratic Registered Republican Registered Independent Registered
All Adults Registered Voters
Voters Voters Voters
Strongly agree 40% 42% 71% 8% 40%
Somewhat agree 14% 12% 15% 8% 16%
Somewhat disagree 10% 9% 6% 14% 7%
Strongly disagree 28% 30% 6% 65% 25%
Don't know 8% 5% 3% 5% 11%
TOTAL AGREE 54% 55% 86% 17% 56%
TOTAL DISAGREE 38% 40% 11% 78% 32%
© 2020 Ipsos Reuters/Ipsos Data 17ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Perceptions on Impeachment
At the end of the impeachment process, what do you think should happen to President Trump?
All Adults Democrats Republicans
He should be
removed from office 47% 75% 13%
by the Senate
Voters should
decide his fate in 51% 24% 85%
the 2020 election
Skip 2% 1% 2%
Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight Data
© 2020 Ipsos 18ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Perceptions on Impeachment
How much has the impeachment of President Trump affected your support for him, if at all?
Democratic Republican Independent
All Adults Registered Voters
Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters
It has made me more supportive 20% 22% 6% 48% 11%
It has made me less supportive 16% 16% 26% 7% 11%
No change 58% 59% 67% 43% 75%
Don't know 6% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Reuters/Ipsos Data
© 2020 Ipsos 19National General Election Market Averages
48% 48% 46% 46%
44% 45% 44% 45%
Biden Trump Sanders Trump Warren Trump Buttigieg Trump
Real Clear Politics National Market Average
20 ‒ © IpsosTrump remains marginal favorite for 2020 but is probably
underperforming where he could be with a strong economy
Ipsos Model: Odds of Chief Executive Victory
President Trump’s Current Approval Rating Modeled Chance of Government Victory
Total Approval
Total Disapproval
Don’t know
Incumbent
Trump’s odds of
Odds of Winning
5% winning re-election:
55%
39% Successor
56%
65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%
Reuters/Ipsos Data Current President’s Approval Rating
21 ‒ © IpsosDemocratic Primary 22 ‒ © Ipsos
Primary Schedule through Super Tuesday
March 3, 2020 –
February February 22, February
February 3, 2020 SUPER
11, 2020 2020 29, 2020
TUESDAY
Iowa New Nevada South Alabama North Carolina
Hampshire Carolina
Arkansas Oklahoma
California Tennessee
Colorado Texas
Maine Utah
Massachusetts Vermont
Minnesota Virginia
23 ‒ © Ipsos2020 Democratic Primary Candidates – And then there were 12
Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Michael Pete Buttigieg
Elizabeth Warren
Bloomberg
Tom Steyer Andrew Yang Michael Bennet Amy Klobuchar John Delaney Tulsi Gabbard Deval Patrick
24 ‒ © Ipsos2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – National Numbers
If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list
of candidates below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of Democratic registered voters)
Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg Michael Bloomberg
40%
35% 36% 36%
30% 30%
28% 29%
28% 27%
25%
24% 23%
23%
20% 21% 20%
18% 19% 19% 16%
17% 17%
15% 15% 16% 15%
14% 14%
13% 12%
10% 11% 8%
9% 6% 9%
6% 6% 7%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
4% 4%
0%
May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020
Reuters/Ipsos Data
25 ‒ © Ipsos2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – Market Averages
National Iowa New Hampshire
Biden 28% Biden 23% Biden 21%
Sanders 18% Sanders 22% Sanders 21%
Warren 17% Warren 17% Warren 15%
Buttigieg 8% Buttigieg 21% Buttigieg 19%
Bloomberg 7% Bloomberg Not on ballot Bloomberg Not on ballot
Yang 2% Yang 3% Yang 4%
Booker 1% Booker 3% Booker 2%
Steyer 1% Steyer 3% Steyer 4%
Klobuchar 1% Klobuchar 6% Klobuchar 6%
Gabbard 1% Gabbard 2% Gabbard 4%
Others 3% Others 0% Others 2%
Don’t know 16% Don’t know 7% Don’t know 12%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Average
26 ‒ © Ipsos2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – Market Averages
National South Carolina Nevada
Biden 28% Biden 37% Biden 28%
Sanders 18% Sanders 15% Sanders 22%
Warren 17% Warren 14% Warren 14%
Buttigieg 8% Buttigieg 5% Buttigieg 6%
Bloomberg 7% Bloomberg Not on ballot Bloomberg Not on ballot
Yang 2% Yang 2% Yang 4%
Booker 1% Booker 2% Booker 3%
Steyer 1% Steyer 14% Steyer 10%
Klobuchar 1% Klobuchar 1% Klobuchar 3%
Gabbard 1% Gabbard 1% Gabbard 1%
Others 3% Others 3% Others 2%
Don’t know 16% Don’t know 12% Don’t know 11%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Average
27 ‒ © IpsosImpact of the Last Pre-Caucus Debate Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight Data 28 ‒ © Ipsos
Ideal Candidate Trait: Ability to Beat Trump
If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, which of the following candidate traits
would be the MOST important factor for you in deciding who to vote for? (Asked of Democratic registered
voters)
42%
11% 11% 10%
8% 7% 6% 4%
2%
Can beat Strong on the Strong on Someone new Strong on the Can unify the Strong Strong on Don’t know
President Trump economy and job healthcare and different environment Democratic Party progressive immigration
in the general creation
election
Reuters/Ipsos Poll January 8-9, 2020
29 ‒ © IpsosCandidate Most Likely to Beat President Trump
For each of the following, select the candidate from the list below you think is best on the particular issue...
“Most likely to beat President Trump in the general election” (Asked of Democratic registered voters)
60%
50%
49%
40% 41% 41%
38% 38% 38%
36% 36% Joe Biden
30%
20% 16%
17% 16%
18% 17% 14% Bernie Sanders
14% 15% 14% 14%
13% 13% 11% Elizabeth Warren
10% 9% 11% Michael Bloomberg
7% 8%
5% 5% 4%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
0% Pete Buttigieg
June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020
Reuters/Ipsos Data
30 ‒ © IpsosLooking ahead 31 ‒ © Ipsos
What to Watch For…
Democratic Primary Donald Trump
Escalating tensions with
Iowa and NH primaries
Iran
Narrowing of the field State of the economy
Volume of sympathetic
Fundraising numbers
media coverage
Media coverage
32 ‒ © IpsosIpsos Resources The Point Being – an Ipsos Podcast overview of public opinion trends Cliff’s Take –Weekly Ipsos Thought Leadership Reuters/Ipsos Public Opinion Partnership Ipsos Global Economic Indicators ipsos.com/en-us/news-and-polls/news 33 ‒ © Ipsos
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