Analysts' Ideas of the Week - Highly Positive Data Supporting Vaccine Efficacy www.researchfrc.com - Fundamental Research Corp.
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Analysts' Ideas of the Week
Highly Positive Data Supporting Vaccine Efficacy
August 3, 2021
www.researchfrc.com
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Reddit Discussed Stocks
Last week’s pick, Apple (NASDAQ: APPL), went from US$148.99 on Monday, to a
high of US$149.21 on Tuesday (up 0.15%). This week, we are observing strong retail
sentiment around Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA). Key parameters used may include
– a) total number of mentions, b) percentage change in the number of mentions, c)
stock sentiment, and d) market capitalization.
August 3, 2021
Company Ticker Sector
Moderna Inc. MRNA Biotechnology
Source: FRC
FRC Top Picks
The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks,
including two gold, two EV metals, and one silver junior resource company. The top
performer, Southern Silver (TSXV: SSV), was up 26% as the company announced
plans to test copper targets on a relatively untested non-core asset. Last week’s
comments on SSV can be viewed here.
Top Five Performers Last Week
Source: FRC
Companies in our Top Picks list were up 2.9% last week vs 1.7% for the
benchmark (TSXV).
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Performance by Sector
Source: FRC
Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.
Weekly Mining Commentary
Global equity indices we track remained relatively flat WoW. U.S. manufacturing
expanded in July, but at a slower than expected pace. Comments from the Fed indicate
that they might start tapering bond purchases in October, if jobs reports remain strong in
August and September. We believe this reflects the Fed’s belief that the economic
recovery is on track.
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Source: FRC / Various
Copper prices were down 4% WoW on higher inventory levels on the LME, and a
slowdown in manufacturing in China.
Source: FRC / Various
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China’s Manufacturing Index
Source: Trading Economics
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Valuations of gold producers were up 4%; base metal producers were up 2%.
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Source: S&P Capital IQ & FRC
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Five (six last week) of the top 15 hardest hit nations (including the U.S., France,
Turkey, Italy, and Iran) are experiencing a spike in new COVID-19 cases. Five
experienced WoW increases in deaths. Due to vaccinations, we note that deaths to
daily new cases have declined in highly vaccinated countries from the highs
earlier this year (1-2%) to 0.3-0.5%. This compares to 0.13% for the flu in the U.S.
Another data pointing to the success of vaccines is that more than 99.99% of fully
vaccinated people have not had a case resulting in hospitalization or death (Source:
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).
Globally, 28.6% have received at least one dose vs 27.2% at the same time last
week. 71.8% of Canadians have received at lease one dose (previously 70.9%). 59.5%
of Canadians are fully vaccinated (previously 55%) vs 56.7% in the U.K. (55%), and
49.3% in the U.S. (49%).
Vaccine hesitancy remains high (20%-30%) in developed economies. On a positive
note, IMF nations approved a US$650B package to aid economically weaker countries
to combat the pandemic.
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We continue to believe that vaccinations remain the number one bottleneck for a
full economic recovery. We are maintaining our price forecasts.
In the following section, we review companies that announced key developments in the
past week.
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Mining / Exploration
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Monarch Mining TSX: GBAR $0.91 $1.68
Corporation
PR Title FRC Opinion
Announces a $13.5M financing with Positive – This non-dilutive financing is a
Investissement Québec strong vote of confidence; GBAR will
strengthen its balance sheet to $43M in
cash and equivalents, and is well funded to
recommence production next year. We will
be publishing an update shortly.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
UEX Corporation TSX: UEX $0.32 N/A
PR Title FRC Opinion
Closes the JCU transaction and the Positive – Deal finalized as expected, and
Denison (TSX: DML) agreement on schedule. As mentioned in a prior note,
UEX is acquiring these assets at a
significant discount relative to sector
multiples. We intend to publish an update
report with a revised fair value estimate on
UEX.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Blue Lagoon CSE: BLLG $0.62 $1.07
Resources
PR Title FRC Opinion
Enters into strategic shareholder Positive – Dr. Hennigh’s comments on
agreement with Crescat and its geologist, Dome Mountain were highly encouraging.
Dr. Quinton Hennigh Dr. Hennigh is a well-known geologist in the
junior resource space, and currently
provides consulting to multiple successful
explorers/developers.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Azure Minerals ASX: AZS A$0.26 A$0.45
PR Title FRC Opinion
High grade hits continue at Andover Positive – We were pleased with these
results, especially the following two long
intercepts - 33.5m @ 0.98% Ni/0.39% Cu,
and 29.1m @ 0.92% Ni/0.40% Cu. We are
expecting AZS to delineate a relatively high-
grade nickel deposit.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
CopperBank CSE: CBK $0.49 $1.78
Resources
PR Title FRC Opinion
Identifies additional exploration targets at Positive - These targets indicate resource
Copper Creek expansion potential. Note that Copper
Creek is already one of the largest
undeveloped copper porphyry projects in
the Americas. Only 35 of the 400+ identified
breccia pipes have been drilled to date.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Colibri TSXV: CBI $0.11 $0.29
Resources
Corporation
PR Title FRC Opinion
39.7 metres of 0.96 g/t gold in Main zone Positive – These assay results provide
step out at the Pilar gold & silver project more conviction on our preliminary resource
in Sonora, Mexico estimate of 624 Koz at 1 gpt gold.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Southern Empire TSXV: SMP $0.20 $0.42
Resources Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Options Pedro gold project, México Positive – Diversifies portfolio, while
awaiting drill permits for its flagship Oro
Cruz project. Pedro has been previously
drilled by Newmont (NYSE: NEM). SMP is
planning to drill nine holes, with permits in
place for up to 25 holes.
Financials, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Voyageur Digital CSE: VYGR $17.47 $32.08
Ltd.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Acquires cryptocurrency payment Positive – Through this acquisition, VYGR
processing company, Coinify. can not only expand its offerings into the
payment space, but also obtain a global
user base in 150+ countries. The deal is
valued at approximately US$80M (net of
cash held by Coinify). We believe a
payment platform is an excellent addition to
the existing brokerage business. Coinify is
privately held, but sources indicate annual
revenue of $12M, reflecting an EV/R of 6.7x
for the transaction vs the sector average of
12x.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
TAAT Global CSE: TAAT $3.70 $5.37
Alternatives Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
TAAT products now sold in 71 stores Positive – We are pleased to see TAAT
across the state of Georgia. continue to expand its distribution, which is
up 33% since the last press release on July
9, 2021. Join us on tomorrow’s investor
webinar – “Are you familiar with this new
hemp product endorsed by Mayweather?”
TAAT’s CEO will be on the call to talk about
their expansion plans.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
NEXE TSXV: NEXE $1.02 $2.65
Innovations Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Launching compostable espresso pods. Positive – We are pleased to see the
company continue to move forward with its
espresso pods. The launch was on
schedule, per prior guidance.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Banxa Holdings TSXV: BNXA $3.00 $11.76
Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Announces new partnership agreements Positive – These partnerships expand their
with crypto exchanges Hoo.com, Gate.io, B2B business; Gate.io is among the top 10
and LBank. largest crypto exchanges by volume.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Kidoz Inc. TSXV: KIDZ $0.70 $2.23
PR Title FRC Opinion
Announces record Q2 network growth Positive – Reported strong growth across
all key parameters. We are expecting record
revenue of $11M this year (unchanged).
Cannabis
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Pure Extracts CSE: PULL $0.40 $0.90
Technologies
Corp.
PR Titles FRC Opinion
Receives sales licence from Health Positive – This license allows for the sale of
Canada. extract products directly to provinces
instead of going through an intermediary.
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Weekly Cannabis Commentary
Cannabis Industry Performance
August 3, 2021
U.S. Companies YTD 1-Week 1-Year
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. -6% -1% 40%
Trulieve Cannabis Corp. -5% 1% 61%
Green Thumb Industries Inc. 24% 3% 115%
Cresco Labs Inc. 4% 7% 64%
Canadian Companies YTD 1-Week 1-Year
Aurora Cannabis Inc. -26% 0% -35%
Canopy Growth Corp. -31% -5% 4%
Cronos Group Inc. -6% 2% 22%
Tilray Inc. -9% 7% -10%
HEXO Corp. -4% -4% 33%
Organigram Holdings Inc. 73% 2% 92%
Canadian Average -1% 0% 18%
U.S. Average 4% 3% 70%
Indices
Canadian YTD 1-Week 1-Year
HMMJ 13% 1% 37%
MCAN 12% -2% 30%
XCAN 1% -1% 14%
U.S. YTD 1-Week 1-Year
MSOS -5% 1% 52%
Source: FRC
Last week, U.S. cannabis stocks outperformed Canadian stocks as Ohio lawmakers
introduced a bill to legalize recreational cannabis, while Mississippi lawmakers
submitted a draft proposal for medical marijuana legalization.
Valuation
As of August 3, 2021, the Canadian big four LPs were trading at an 87% premium
(down from 94% in the previous week) over their U.S. peers. We continue to believe
the valuation gap will diminish as the U.S. moves closer to federal legalization.
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July 26, 2021 August 3, 2021
Canadian Companies Ticker TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA
Aurora Cannabis Inc. TSX: ACB 6.6 NM 6.5 NM
Canopy Growth Corp. TSX: WEED 16.9 NM 16.2 NM
Cronos Group Inc. TSX: CRON 27.8 NM 29.7 NM
Tilray Inc. NASDAQ: TLRY 13.7 NM 13.7 NM
HEXO Corp. NYSE: HEXO 6.9 NM 6.6 NM
Organigram Holdings Inc. TSX: OGI 9.8 NM 10.5 NM
AVERAGE 12.4 NM 13.9 NM
MEDIAN 9.8 NM 10.5 NM
MINIMUM 5.0 NM 5.0 NM
MAXIMUM 27.8 NM 29.7 NM
U.S. Companies Ticker TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. OTC: CURLF 11.7 40.1 11.1 37.9
Trulieve Cannabis Corp. OTC TCNNF 6.9 14.8 7.0 14.9
Green Thumb Industries Inc. OTC: GTBIF 10.5 28.8 10.3 28.1
Cresco Labs Inc. OTC: CRLBF 6.6 22.0 6.7 22.3
AVERAGE 8.9 26.4 8.8 25.8
MEDIAN 8.7 25.4 8.7 25.2
MINIMUM 6.6 14.8 6.7 14.9
MAXIMUM 11.7 40.1 11.1 37.9
Canadian Big Four Average 16.3 16.5
WEED, ACB, TLRY, CRON Median 16.9 16.2
Implied Premium Over U.S. Big Four (Median) 94% 87%
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
The following chart shows the average EV/R of the companies we track in both
countries:
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Average EV/R
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Canadian Retail Cannabis Pricing
Province (As of 2021/08/3) Average Price per Gram Average Price per Gram THC Average Price per Gram CBD # of Products Min. Price Max. Price
B.C. $ 9.63 $ 9.70 $ 8.45 253 $ 3.53 $ 15.71
Ontario $ 9.37 $ 9.52 $ 7.88 371 $ 3.57 $ 22.66
Quebec $ 9.22 $ 9.22 $ 9.23 273 $ 3.60 $ 21.68
Alberta $ 10.73 $ 10.72 $ 10.78 418 $ 3.14 $ 22.00
N.B. $ 9.25 $ 9.38 $ 7.64 209 $ 3.57 $ 15.99
P.E.I. $ 9.62 $ 9.63 $ 9.34 187 $ 4.40 $ 23.30
Newfoundland $ 9.97 $ 9.91 $ 10.26 173 $ 4.08 $ 15.40
Yukon $ 16.33 $ 15.13 $ 13.95 4 $ 13.68 $ 13.95
N.S. $ 9.91 $ 9.94 $ 9.50 204 $ 4.64 $ 42.85
Nunavut $ 13.15 $ 13.35 $ 13.41 32 $ 9.43 $ 17.91
Northwest Territories $ 14.68 $ 12.65 2 $ 12.08 $ 17.28
Manitoba $ 11.30 $ 11.21 $ 11.55 374 $ 4.87 $ 23.57
Saskatchewan $ 11.96 $ 11.95 $ 12.07 273 $ 4.40 $ 38.50
CANADA $ 11.16 $ 10.95 $ 10.34
Province (As of 2021/07/26) Average Price per Gram Average Price per Gram THC Average Price per Gram CBD # of Products Min. Price Max. Price Max. Price
B.C. $ 9.61 $ 9.68 $ 8.45 251 $ 3.53 $ 15.71 $ 15.71
Ontario $ 9.41 $ 9.57 $ 7.88 365 $ 3.57 $ 22.66 $ 22.66
Quebec $ 9.25 $ 9.25 $ 9.23 268 $ 3.60 $ 21.68 $ 21.68
Alberta $ 10.75 $ 10.74 $ 10.78 411 $ 3.14 $ 22.00 $ 22.00
N.B. $ 9.29 $ 9.42 $ 7.64 206 $ 3.36 $ 15.99 $ 16.28
P.E.I. $ 9.61 $ 9.63 $ 9.34 187 $ 4.40 $ 23.30 $ 23.30
Newfoundland $ 9.98 $ 9.92 $ 10.32 169 $ 4.46 $ 15.40 $ 15.40
Yukon $ 16.33 $ 15.13 $ 13.95 4 $ 13.68 $ 13.95 $ 22.28
N.S. $ 10.01 $ 10.05 $ 9.50 196 $ 4.64 $ 42.85 $ 42.85
Nunavut $ 13.15 $ 13.35 $ 13.41 32 $ 9.43 $ 17.91 $ 17.91
Northwest Territories $ 14.68 $ 12.65 2 $ 12.08 $ 17.28 $ 17.28
Manitoba $ 11.31 $ 11.22 $ 11.55 374 $ 4.87 $ 23.57 $ 23.57
Saskatchewan $ 12.04 $ 12.04 $ 12.07 266 $ 4.40 $ 38.50 $ 38.50
CANADA $ 11.19 $ 10.97 $ 10.34
Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC
The average retail price per gram fell week-over-week from $11.19 to $11.16. The
chart below shows the Canadian retail dried cannabis flower pricing trend:
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Canadian Retail Dried Cannabis Flower Pricing
Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC
Canadian Retail Cannabis Stores
As of August 3, 2021, there are 2,354 retail cannabis stores, a WoW increase of three
stores across Canada. We are noticing a decline in weekly new openings,
especially after news of declining margins of retailers in ON amid rising
competition. Based on a population to store ratio, we believe there is room for at least
1,500 more stores across the country.
Nationwide Store Count
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July-5-2021 July-12-2021 July-19-2021 July-26-2021 Aug-3-2021
Geographic Region Store Count Store Count Store Count Store Count Store Count Population Population / Store
Alberta 652 653 657 661 663 4,428,247 6,679
B.C. 362 364 367 367 369 5,120,184 13,876
Manitoba 101 103 105 106 106 1,379,121 13,011
N.B. 20 20 20 20 20 780,890 39,045
N.S. 25 25 25 25 25 978,274 39,131
Newfoundland 30 30 30 30 30 520,437 17,348
Northwest Territories 6 6 6 6 6 44,982 7,497
Nunavut 39,486
Ontario 872 885 948 954 945 14,745,040 15,603
P.E.I. 4 4 4 4 4 158,717 39,679
Quebec 71 73 74 75 84 8,552,362 101,814
Saskatchewan 88 88 96 98 97 1,181,987 12,185
Yukon 5 5 5 5 5 41,293 8,259
CANADA 2,236 2,256 2,337 2,351 2,354 37,971,020 16,130
Source: Provincial Websites, FRC
Weekly Psychedelic Commentary
Psychedelic Industry Performance
August 3, 2021
Company YTD 1-Week 1-Year
COMPASS Pathways plc -24% -11% 14%
Atai Life Sciences N.V. -23% -8% -23%
Numinus Wellness Inc. -13% 4% 250%
Mind Medicine Inc. -1% -2% 671%
Braxia Scientific Corp. -66% 7% -66%
Seelos Therapeutics Inc. 46% -9% 94%
AVERAGE -13% -3% 157%
MIN -66% -11% -66%
MAX 46% 7% 671%
Index YTD 1-Week 1-Year
PSYK -10% -2% -10%
Source: TMX Money, FRC
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forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned in pages 2, and 10-14 are covered by FRC
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