Anticipating Tomorrow - Shaping the future of the Irish food and drink market towards 2020 - Bord Bia
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Anticipating Tomorrow Shaping the future of the Irish food and drink market towards 2020
Contents Foreword By Aidan Cotter, Chief Executive, Bord Bia 1 Executive Summary 3 1. From the past to the future; exploring the 11 changing landscape 2. Scenarios for the future of the Irish food 21 and drink market Round the Table 23 From the Greenhouse 25 Off the Menu 27 In the Lab 29 3. A vision for the future 37 4. Strategic priorities 45 5. How to use this report: from scenarios 53 to strategy Appendix 1 – Methodology 59 Appendix 2 – Prioritised drivers in full 74 Appendix 3 – About Henley Centre 82 HeadlightVision
Looking back 13 years from 2007
1994 The term
'Celtic Tiger' is
coined as a
metaphor for
1996 BSE crisis
the Irish
in Britain
economic
resulting in an
boom.
EU-imposed ban
on the export of
1997 Tesco British beef.
Foreword If the Irish industry is to remain competitive in a world that is more
and more impacted by the forces of globalisation – both positive and
starts trading
again in Ireland.
By Aidan Cotter, Chief Executive, Bord Bia
negative – it needs to be both forward and outward looking. This
We have commissioned this report as we believe that it is vital report will help us to do both.
that the Irish food and drink industry looks proactively at its 1998 The start of
discount store retail
future environment. Bord Bia has a crucial role to play in helping Looking back 13 years from 2007 there have been significant changes shopping as the first
organisations look to the long term, in order to help them plan in the food and drink market, some of which were anticipated, many Aldi opens in
strategically and to help them thrive. which were not. This shows us the importance of looking out to the Ireland. By 2006
future – not just 2 or 3 years but more strategically toward the longer there were 102 Aldi
and Lidl stores
Competing successfully in the domestic Irish market is a term. This is the purpose of Anticipating Tomorrow. The scenarios in nationwide.
precondition for the industry’s success in the international this report are designed to enable the industry to understand and to
marketplace. The role of the domestic market has never been manage the future more effectively and allow us all to explore different
more critical. A decade of economic prosperity has transformed views of how the future might play out. We have used the scenarios
the environment in which the industry operates, as the market has to identify our preferred vision for the market in 2020. I believe it is
grown, in terms of scale, complexity and sophistication. It now has aspirational, worthwhile and rewarding and that we must do all we can
the capacity to sustain an ever more thriving and dynamic industry to achieve it. The strategic priorities that this report identifies are crucial
while also becoming a powerful platform for companies with in helping Irish food and drink companies to thrive in the future and we
1999 Euro
ambition to prepare for the challenges and opportunities of the at Bord Bia are committed to making this happen. introduced into
global marketplace. Ireland in cashless 1999 Land
This project helps us all to improve our understanding of the future. form. dedicated to organic
production is
The dynamic nature of domestic demand offers a platform It identifies ways in which the market is likely to change, and clearly
25,475ha, an increase
for trial and innovation, fostering an ever improved capability outlines how to mitigate the potential risks and also capitalise on of over 80% since
to compete in export markets. As Ireland’s largest indigenous the exciting opportunities that the future holds. Now we must act 1995. The number of
sector, success domestically and abroad is critical to the future on this knowledge. certified organic
producers increased
prosperity of Ireland. The industry currently employs 158,000
for the same period
people and represents some 8% of Ireland ’s economy. by over 391%.
1 Anticipating Tomorrow
Wider trends 2004 The Irish
1996-2002 In 1996, Ireland 2002 Irish population increases 2002-2006 on average 46,000 functional foods market
reached its migration 'turning by 8% since 1996 to 3.9 million per year more immigrants than 2004 Smoking is valued at €100 million
point,' becoming a country of people. emigrants in Ireland. ban is imposed a year and is growing by
net immigration. In each year in Ireland. 10% per annum.
between 1996 and 2002 on 2002 Launch of
average there were 23,000 more Euro notes and 2005 PERIscope 2005 reveals that
immigrants than emigrants in coins. Irish consumers are eating ‘out of
Ireland. home’ regularly with 1 in 4 eating
out on a weekly basis.
2005 The National Taskforce on Obesity report is
issued, reflecting growing health concerns. The
report reveals that there were 2000 premature deaths
in Ireland due to obesity in 2005 and that obesity in
Ireland is increasing by at least 1% per year.
2002 Levy
introduced on 2006 Exports of Irish food and drink
plastic bags in exceed €8 billion for the first time.
2001 Foot and Ireland. Plastic bag
Mouth disease consumption
outbreak in drops by 95%. 2007 The first all-Ireland farmers market takes place in
2001 BSE crisis on the UK. Athlone. From only a handful a few years ago, 126 farmer's
continental Europe. markets are now established across the country.
Beef consumption
falls by 27% in the EU. 2007 The market share of
2000 Central international food retailers in
distribution Ireland reaches 35%.
technology
transforms the retail
1999-2002 A focus landscape. Musgrave
on food safety and develop the first
traceability is central distribution
reflected in the network for chilled,
establishment of a fresh and frozen
number of regulatory goods in Ireland. This
bodies: the FSAI (Food 2004 Ireland's mean annual 2005-2006 Dublin house 2007 Broadband subscriptions 2007 – Irish population
allows produce to be temperature has increased by prices grow by 16% in a year. reach 602,000 in Ireland reaches 4.3 million, its highest
Safety Authority of delivered fresh to
Ireland) in 1999, the 0.7°C since 1890, at an average The average house price in which accounts for 60% of all level since 1871, an 8% increase
stores within 24 rate of 0.06°C per decade, and Ireland has risen to more than internet subscriptions. In 2005, since 2002.
FSA (Food Standards hours. Other retailers
Agency) in the UK (set is set to continue to rise. € 350,000 since 1996. broadband only accounted for
follow suit. 19% of subscriptions.
up in 2000), and the
EFSA (European Food
Safety Authority) in
2002.
Shaping the future of the I rish food and drink mark et towards 2020 2
Executive Summary
Objective in Ireland include an ageing population, smaller household size proprietary knowledge base. In addition, a series of highly
and an increased focus on tackling obesity. Global factors such interactive workshops with industry stakeholders and those from
This report explores the future of the Irish domestic food and as climate and resource shortage are also affecting the wider other sectors were held during Spring-Summer 2007 in order to
drink market in 2020, and subsequent or resulting implications and operating environment of the food and drink industry and need to listen to a diverse range of viewpoints and ensure co-creation of
opportunities for the industry. The report is intended to enable be factored in to any organisational planning. the final output.
all Irish food and drinks companies, large or small, to plan for
future success and for other stakeholders, including Bord Bia, to The dynamics of the Irish food and drink market itself have also A wide array of perspectives have been gathered to shape the
understand their role in helping all companies achieve this goal. changed significantly and are being shaped by both supply and views presented by this report. Both large and small businesses
demand. Consumers are spending more money than ever on eating have been consulted to ensure that the challenges faced by each
Four scenarios have been developed which help to explore the and drinking, and their tastes are changing. Familiar notions such as are considered equally. Wider stakeholders have been drawn in to
future, and allow the identification of a vision for the market in 2020. 'convenience' are becoming more sophisticated as consumers are the process to provide balance. Notably we have consulted with
Key strategic priorities for the industry have also been identified, in less prepared to make trade-offs and seek several benefits from one young students to understand their concerns for the future and
order that all companies and stakeholders can effectively manage product. Health and wellbeing is also evolving, as people become then test the realities of the vision defined through the process.
future threats and leverage future opportunities. more aware of the link between health and nutrition and attempt After all, the young are often the vanguard for change in society.
to balance out their indulgent moments with healthier options.
Context The scenarios
Process
A combination of wider external and more internal factors have A helpful way to think about the future is to remember that while
shaped the changing consumption landscape in Ireland. The This report is grounded in a robust and rigorous assessment it is uncertain, and much of it is beyond our control, individuals
strength of the Irish economy and the emergence of the 'Celtic of existing statistical data and evidence, which has formed the and organisations can influence some aspects of it and prepare for
Tiger' in the early 1990s is a key factor. Forecasts indicate that the backdrop for the development of the scenarios and the preferred possible outcomes. Scenarios focus on the key uncertainties and
economy will continue to grow but that the rate of growth per vision. This has been supplemented with a series of interviews with therefore help organisations to rehearse the future.
head is expected to slow to about 2% per year to 2015. Other industry stakeholders as well as those from outside. The report also
important considerations for the future of the domestic market draws on existing desk analysis and Henley Centre HeadlightVision’s The four scenarios that emerged were developed through the
3 Anticipating Tomorrow
crossing of two identified axes of uncertainty – ‘Motivations for The scenarios do not represent the policy position of Bord • From the Greenhouse; Natural & Nutritious – In this world,
Eating’ and ‘Attitudes towards Consumption’ (see page 21) Bia or of the Irish food and drink industry; rather, each consumers are focused on improving their health through
– which are likely to play a large role in the future of the Irish food scenario represents an extreme view of the future and is designed functional foods, without hurting the environment. High-tech
and drink market. to provoke and challenge existing views of what the future sustainable greenhouses flourish as families and farmers find ways
might hold. The scenarios depict key social, economic, political, to grow specialist functional foods. Many people have a personal
‘Motivations for Eating’ explores what motivates consumption environmental and organisational drivers of change that interact nutrition and environment advisor, meaning that knowledge
of food and drink by consumers. At one extreme, ‘Food as Ritual’ in different ways in each of the four worlds. The most likely about the link between health, food, and the environment is
captures the sense that food is about togetherness and enjoyment scenario for the domestic food and drink market in 2020 widespread. Taste and enjoyment of food is still important but the
and is part of the social fabric of society. At the other extreme, ‘Food probably involves a combination of all four worlds emphasis is on the natural and nutritional value of foods. Food is
as Performance’, food is viewed by consumers as a means to an outlined below. often fresh or preserved using techniques that lock-in or enhance
end rather than an end in itself. Food is consumed for its functional the food’s function. More natural food means a reduction in
benefits at this end of the spectrum. • Round the Table; Local & Ethical – Spurred by environmental food yields which means that food and drink can be expensive in
shocks, this is a community-minded world where consumers are this world. As such, those who can’t afford a sufficient supply of
‘Attitudes towards Consumption’ explores consumers’ broad highly concerned about the environment. Most food is grown ‘superfoods’ may not be so healthy.
attitude towards consumption. At one extreme, ‘Our Planet’ locally and supply chains are short as consumers buy direct
encapsulates the sense that consumers’ consumption patterns from the producers where possible. Big brands struggle unless • Off the Menu; Indulgent & Experimental – This is a highly
are significantly impacted by their concerns about environmental they are able to feel credibly ‘local’ and ethical. Priority goes to experiential world in which consumers continue to indulge in new,
sustainability and the future of the planet. Individuals take proactive growing high yield and multi-purpose crops which can be used exotic and indulgent eating experiences, despite government
measures to limit their own environmental impact at this end of for both food and fuel. As a result, food choice is more limited attempts to discourage such behaviour. Eating out is the norm,
the spectrum. The other extreme – ‘My Life’ – reflects people’s but consumers still find ways to enjoy eating. Group mealtimes meaning that restaurants have more power than retailers.
determination to live their lives on their own terms. Consumers are the basis for social gathering and there is a strong sense of Restaurant brands begin to be more trusted than retail brands.
resent attempts to constrain their behaviour and sometimes go to community. People are both physically and mentally healthy in Some products with high-energy footprint, or poor ethical
extreme lengths to continue consuming goods and services. this world. production standards are banned, but this only fuels a growing
band of ‘rebel’ consumers who find ‘underground’ ways to enjoy
Shaping the future of the I rish food and drink mark et towards 2020 4
the food they want. Consumers have lots of fun in this world but itself and for consumers. Consumers demand transparency of health claims, ingredient
suffer from health problems related to over-indulgence. sourcing and production methods. Clear consumer expectations
While recognising that thirteen years is not far off, the vision exist which are defined by guidelines; market forces ensure the
• In the Lab; Performance & Achievement – A strong individual also reflects that the world will have changed in significant ways compliance of producers and manufacturers. There is limited need
desire for self-improvement and achievement in all aspects of life between now and then. In order for the food and drink industry for legislative intervention.
fuels this world. Food and drink are viewed as tools to improve to flourish, the vision for the market needs to take into account the
health in order to maximise performance, rather than sources social, economic and environmental forces that are changing the The food and drink industry has found solutions to improving food
of pleasure. Consumers eat on-the-go, often consuming multi- day-to-day lives of Irish citizens. yields using natural and environmentally friendly techniques and
functional nutrients and vitamins to enhance their diet. Advanced ways of preserving foods that lock-in or enhance their nutritional
technology means that food is virtually indistinguishable from To help articulate what the domestic Irish food and drink market value. Food processing has been redefined in this world – it no
medicine. The persistent sense of ‘survival of the fittest’ creates would look and feel like if the preferred vision was achieved, a longer has connotations with artificial additives and ready meals
high stress levels. Therefore, whilst physical health improves for narrative has been developed which acts as a ‘fifth scenario’, but is all about finding the best possible combinations of fresh,
most consumers, mental health is a significant problem. capturing key elements of the desired future for the market in 2020. natural foods to create ‘super products’ packed with health
boosters that meet the needs of an increasingly on-the-go society.
There are a number of critical challenges and opportunities which Vision narrative (abbreviated)
result for the industry from the scenarios; these – and a set of In this world, great importance is placed on the health-enhancing, Room for indulgence still exists! Consumers still seek variety and
strategic dimensions across the scenarios – are explored in the full functional and natural benefits of food and drink. Consumers have new experiences in food and drink and revel in the delight of great
body of the report. high levels of concern for the environment and, where possible, tasting produce well made.
buy fresh products sourced either locally or within Ireland. This
The Vision for 2020 environmentally responsible, healthy behaviour prevails about The health of the nation is vastly improved. Obesity has declined
80% of the time, with more indulgent forays at the weekends or on rapidly amongst children. Unfortunately, some will still have to live
This report identifies a vision for the Irish domestic food and drink special occasions. with the legacy of poor diet in their formative years. Obesity still
market in 2020 which is aspirational, yet achievable. It should prevails for a proportion of consumers in their 20s and 30s who
motivate the industry to work towards creating a better future for missed out on the nutrition education of their younger peers and
5 Anticipating Tomorrow
who struggle to change their existing unhealthy eating habits. The priorities are not designed or intended to incorporate every Bord Bia’s commitment
future action which the industry (and/or other key players) will need
The focus on growing locally is good for Irish branded food and to take going forward. They are those that have been identified as Bord Bia is committed to integrating the report findings into its
drinks but the high demands of ensuring both traceability requiring specific strategic action in order that the preferred vision plans and programmes for the industry. It will also give companies
and functionality means that some foods are more limited in can be achieved in the future. The priorities are as follows: the opportunity to engage further as it develops these plans and
supply and consequently, more expensive: a price that society is invites contributions, reflections and suggestions from those in the
generally more than prepared to pay for the preservation of the • Strong consumer connections industry and more widely to ensure the right priorities are defined
environment and better health. • Flexibility, creativity and innovation and programmes are delivered effectively.
Strategic priorities • Visionary leadership We envisage that these key initiatives will include:
Two sets of strategic issues informed the development of these • Improving efficiency
priorities. Firstly, a number of challenges for the industry that are • Developing closer relationships with schools to increase awareness
common to all the scenarios have been identified (‘Imperatives’). • Effective routes to market about where food comes from, nutrition, cooking skills;
Secondly, those additional actions required to achieve the vision
were identified ('Preferences’). A synthesis of these two sets of The priorities are discussed in the Strategic Priorities chapter of • Participating in the university job fairs and ‘milk round’ as a
challenges has determined the critical strategic priorities which the the report. coherent industry group in order to reach those with low
industry should address going forward. awareness of the industry and what it can offer to graduates;
From scenarios to strategy
It is important to emphasise that whether the priorities emerged • Developing a skills training scheme across the industry which
primarily from the Imperatives or the Preferences, they have been This report aims to assist the industry in taking ownership for raises standards and encourages more talented people to enter it;
identified through the workshops and subsequent analysis as shaping its own future both individually and collectively. The
critical elements of a successful strategy if the industry is to shape purpose of undertaking futures work is to impact the present, and • Focusing more specifically on ‘celebrating winners’ to encourage
the realisation of its preferred vision. the vision and strategic priorities identified here provide a valuable innovation and maintain industry morale;
starting point for this endeavour.
Shaping the future of the I rish food and drink mark et towards 2020 6
• Providing guidance and industry benchmarks to companies that Menu and In the Lab. This chapter also provides ‘glimpses into Please note that
wish to understand and reduce their environmental footprint and the future’ by highlighting existing products or services which are
improve transparency; likely to be much more common place in each of the scenarios. • If you are interested primarily in the scenarios and the emerging
In addition this chapter explores the qualitative and quantitative vision, please turn directly to chapters three and four.
• Identifying best practice in the industry in other countries, as well dimensions of the scenarios in order that they can be assessed and
as from other sectors e.g. pharmaceuticals, retailing, logistics, and explored relative to each other. • If you would like to explore the strategic issues for industry
how we can learn from it; which the report identifies, please turn to chapter five. Chapter
• Chapter three describes the vision for 2020, as well as a six provides guidance on how to use these priorities to inform
• Increasing financial support for consumer research, thereby helping quantitative assessment of this aspiration. strategy development within your own organisation.
industry to track evolving consumer trends and the resultant
implications for the market in a cost-effective and timely manner. • Chapter four focuses on the strategic priorities and discusses the • In addition to the full report, Bord Bia has produced a scenarios
importance of each of these in anticipating and preparing for booklet which has been designed to be a concise and actionable
Bord Bia welcomes further discussion and consideration of the future. document that contains suggestions on how to use the scenarios.
these initiatives.
• Chapter five offers a guide to using the report and suggests
Reading this report ways in which organisations can use the report to improve their
strategic responses.
• Chapter one provides the wider context for this report by
analysing the important internal and external factors that • Finally the report has three appendices. The first outlines the
are influencing food and drink consumption both today and project methodology, while the second details the eighteen
going forward. prioritised drivers which formed the basis for the axis and
scenario development. Appendix three provides brief details
• Chapter two focuses on the four detailed scenarios which have of Henley Centre HeadlightVision, the strategic marketing
been developed - Round the Table, From the Greenhouse, Off the consultancy which developed the report.
7 Anticipating TomorrowShaping the future of the I rish food and drink mark et towards 2020 8
1. F
rom the past to the future;
exploring the changing landscape1. From the past to the future; exploring the changing landscape
A combination of both wider external and more specific local Higher growth rates in recent years have been underpinned by the “In spite of the dangers that exist, the Irish
factors are responsible for shaping the changing consumption property boom; with this slowing, economic growth is likely to slow economy is basically robust and can look
landscape we are witnessing. Both sets of factors have been taken too. The question mark over how growth rates and the economy
forward to an average growth rate in GNP per
into account throughout the scenario process, and are explored in will play out in the next decade led to the driver ‘Uncertain future of
detail here. Irish economic growth’ being prioritised in the scenarios process. As
head of around 2% per year out to the end of
an important yet uncertain driver, it is central to the development the next decade.”
Internal factors of the scenarios. ESRI Medium-Term review 2007
One of the most important factors forming the backdrop to this The size and productivity of Ireland’s workforce is a key factor in
changing landscape is the strength of the Irish economy (Figure 1). determining economic growth. Productivity in Ireland is now the
Since the emergence of the ‘Celtic Tiger’ in the early 1990s, Ireland second highest in the European Union and from 1997 to 2006, the
has continued to experience a period of economic growth and employment rate rose from 56.1% to 68.1%. Rising demand for
success – GDP per capita is almost 40% above the EU average1. labour has created a skills shortage and labour costs have increased
accordingly. Indeed wages across all sectors increased on average
However, while forecasts indicate that disposable income and the by 5.7% between 2006 and 2007, above the rate of inflation and
economy as a whole will continue to grow, the rate of growth per over twice the European average, which is 2.6%. Looking to 2020,
head is expected to slow to about 2% per year to 20152. employment and the size of the labour force are predicted to
continue to grow but at a slower rate than previous years (Figure 2).
11 Anticipating Tomorrow0 2005 2020
2020 -20 -9.6
2005 UK Rest
EUEUof Rest of Africa
Europe Asia America Other
nationalities Not
stated -20 -10.3
% ch
2020 Europe nationalities stated
chac
2005 EU Europe nationalities stated -20 2010 2015 2020
%%
2010 2015 2020
2010 2015 2020
Figure 1: Ireland’s Economic Growth Forecast to 2020 Figure 2: Ireland’s employment and labour force growth rate to 2020 Figure 3: Projected population growth to 2020
1010 66
10 6
99 GNP
GNP 6 6Million
Million
9 GNP 55 Employment
Employment Labour
LabourForce
Force
88 GNP
GNPper
perhea
headd 5 Employment Labour Force 6 Million
GNP per hea d
rate
rate
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
8
rate
rate
77 44
population
size of population
growth
growth
7 4
population
growth
growth
66 5 5Million
Million
6 5 Million
55 33
annual
annual
5 3
annual
annual
44
of of
4
size
33 22 4 4Million
Million
average
average
size
3 2 4 Million
average
average
22
2
11 11 average
averageannual
annualgrowth
growthrate
rate
1
00
1 average annual growth rate 3 3Million
Million
3 Million
0 00 2005 2010 2015 2020
1990-95
1990-95 1995-00
1995-00 2000-05
2000-05 2005-10
2005-10 2010-15
2010-15 2015-20
2015-20 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2005 2010 2015 2020
1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20
1990-95
Source: ESRI Medium-Term Review 2007 Source: ESRI Medium-Term Review 2007 Source: NCB Report 2020
For many people in Ireland, the past decade has meant a rise in flow reflected a rising number of migrants from outside the EU. 1 Quarterly Economic Review 2007
wealth and prosperity. However, there is evidence of a significant Most recently there has been a surge in immigration from the new 2 ESRI 2007
3 NCB Report 2020
minority who are vulnerable and at risk. The proportion of the EU member states3. Ireland’s population is set to become more
4 Department of Health, Ireland
population at risk of poverty (according to the CSO categorisation) culturally diverse as can be seen in the importance of ethnic foods
was 20% in 2005, the latest year for which figures are available. This in the vision narrative.
is one of the highest ratings across the EU and is a reflection that
the strong growth, which has benefited most of the population, Ireland has also experienced many of the demographic changes
has also left a section of society increasingly isolated. The scenarios witnessed in other developed economies of the world. The average
seek to represent how this dichotomy plays out in the future – for household size has fallen to 2.85, in contrast to a figure of 4.0 in
example, Off the Menu is a desirable scenario for some sections of 1966. The average age at which women give birth is rising, and
society but leaves others vulnerable and excluded. Indeed all four fewer couples are having children than ever before. Women enjoy
scenarios reflect both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ as they seek to represent a life expectancy of almost 82 and men just over 774. We have seen
plausible views of how the future may play out. significant growth in the number of apartments built, particularly
in the larger cities in order to accommodate the rise in people who
The rising demand for labour has been met with reduced choose to live on their own. This plays out in different ways in the
unemployment and a growth in migration. We have seen net four scenarios. For example, more communal living emerges in
migration into the country every year since 1996. This has and will Round the Table as house prices force individuals to consider new
continue to fuel population growth. The population is forecast to ways to live their lives. In the Lab is a more individualistic world,
grow by 25% between 2005 and 2020 (Figure 3). where living on one’s own remains popular for those who can
afford it.
New migrants are expected to continue to come primarily from
within the EU but are also expected to arrive from Asia (Figures Ireland also faces the challenge of an increasingly ageing
4 & 5 ). In the 1990s, people who had formerly emigrated from population – as does most of Western Europe (Figure 6). While
Ireland constituted half of the migrant inflow. Subsequently the rates are slower in Ireland in the shorter term, over the medium
Shaping the future of the I rish food and drink mark et towards 2020 122000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1994-1995 1994-1995 1999-2000 1999-2000 2004-2005 2004-2005 2003 20042003 20052004 20062005 20072006 20082007 20092008 20102009 20112010 20122011 2012
2000 2001
2000 2002
2001 2003
2002 2004
2003 2005
2004 2006
2005 2006
Figure 4: Current and projected migrant population in Ireland Figure 5: The nationalities of the current non-Irish population in Figure 6: Population growth forecasts for each age cohort in Ireland
Ireland in 2006
Total population
Average annual growth rate (millions)
6 Total population
Total population
Average annual growth rate (millions)
Average annual growth rate (millions)
6 6 Born in Ireland 5.334
% change of cohort from 2005 base year
Born in Ireland
Born in Ireland 5.334 5.334
% change of cohort from 2005 base year
% change of cohort from 2005 base year
5 Not born in Ireland 180,000
5 Not
5 born in NotIreland
born in Ireland 4.334 180,000 180,000 163,227 50 0-15 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ total
4.131 0-15 15-24
0-15 25-44
15-24 45-64
25-44 65+
45-64 total
65+ total
4.131 4.131 4.334 4.334 160,000 163,227 163,227 50 50
4 3.735 160,000 160,000 37.7
3.735 3.735 140,000 40
Population size
4 4 33.5 37.7 37.7
140,000 140,000 40 40
Population size
Population size
33.5 33.5
120,000 112,548 30 26.4 27.1
3 120,000 112,548
120,000 112,548 24.4 27.1 24 27.1
30 30 26.4 26.4
3 3 100,000 20.3 24.4 24.4 24 24
100,000 100,000 20 20.3 20.3
15.6 16.6
80,000 13.4 12.2 16.6 16.6 14.2
2 80,000 80,000
20 9.9 20 10.213.4 12.2 13.4
15.6 15.6 14.2 14.2
2 2 60,000 10 9.9 10.29.9 10.2 8.1 12.2
46,952 45,597 8.1 8.1
1.0 60,000 60,000 35,326 46,952 46,952 45,597 45,597 10 10
1 1.0 1.0 40,000
40,000 40,000 24,425 35,326 35,326 21,124 0
1 1 0.395 20,000 24,425 24,425 21,124
16,131
21,124 0 0
0.395 0.395 20,000 20,000 16,131 16,131
-10 -4.1
0 0 -4.1 -4.1
0 UK0 Rest of Rest of Africa Asia America Other Not -10 -10
-9.6 -10.3
0 0 2020 -9.6 -9.6
2005 UK Rest
UK
EUof Rest Restofof Africa
Europe Rest of Asia
Africa America
Asia Other
America Other
Notstated Not
nationalities -20 -10.3 -10.3
2005 2005 2020 2020 -20 -20
EU Europe
EU Europe nationalitiesnationalities
stated stated 2010 2015 2020
2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020
Source: NCB report 2020 Source: CSO Source: CSO
term, the country will face real challenges in terms of caring for 6 world will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese8. such pressures evolves differently in each of the four scenarios.)
10 6 6
10
9
the10elderly, providing adequate pensionsGNP
and maintaining a viable Obesity undoubtedly represents a significant challenge in the The growing demand on world markets for oil and geo-political
6 Million
9 9 GNP GNP 5
world Employment Labour Force
dependency ratio. 5 today.
6stress
Millionis 6resulting
Million in shortages in supply. Crude oil prices were
8 GNP per hea d 5 Employment
EmploymentLabour Force
Labour Force
GNP per GNP
hea dper hea d
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
8 8
three times higher in 2006 than they were three years earlier9 and
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
7 4
size of population
7 7 4
External
4
factors
size of population
size of population
6 With the proportion of the population aged over 60 forecast to such pressures have informed the development of the scenario
5 Million
6 6 5 Million 5 Million
5 increase to 20% by 2020, while at the same time those aged under 3 narratives, for example, forcing individuals to travel less and rely
5 5 3 3
4
4 25 are
4
decreasing in size, the population will have different food Global issues such as climate change and resource shortage on local service providers in Round the Table.
4 Million
3
3 and3drink desires to today. Equally, the desire to maintain good 2
2 are 2affecting the wider operating environment of the food and 4 Million 4 Million
2
2 health
2 and wellness will be a driving factor in consumption and drink industry. The scenarios and the vision recognise that by Biofuels (fuels made from crops such as wheat, rapeseed, corn
1
lifestyle choices. This is illustrated in all four scenarios (although in
1
2020 average annualstresses
environmental
1 average
growth rate
and associated legislation will play and sugar) are increasingly being seen as plausible alternatives
1 1 1 average
annual growth
annualrate
growth rate 3 Million
0 3 Million 3 Million
0 different
0 ways) and most significantly in the vision. 0 a prominent role in the world at large. (However, the response to to petrochemicals.
2005 A growing
2010 proportion of agricultural 2020
2015 land,
1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 0 0 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020
1990-95 1990-95
1995-00 1995-00
2000-05 2000-05
2005-10 2005-10
2010-15 2010-15
2015-20 2015-20 1990-95 1995-00 1995-00
2000-05 2000-05
2005-10 2005-10
2010-15 2010-15
2015-20 2015-20
1990-95 1990-95
Amongst the wider population there have been changes in Table1: Potential impacts and vulnerabilities for Ireland resulting from climate change (temperature increase)
people’s lifestyles. The growing service sector has fuelled the growth
of more sedentary and less structured living. Between 1995 and Up to 1ºC change Up to 2ºC change More than 2ºC change
2004, employment in the service sector in Ireland increased by
Longer growing season Reduced soil moisture Sea level rise and flooding
58%, compared with an increase of 6% in the manufacturing
sector5. With modern living has come the rise of modern ailments, Potential for new crops e.g. soybean Water shortages in summer Loss of coastal habitats
and society has continued to get increasingly obese6 and levels of
Increased production of existing cereal and grass crops Fish stocks may suffer due to Increase in intense/extreme
reported stress are significant7. Obesity levels are unlikely to have
change in water temperature weather events
dissipated substantially over the next thirteen years and this forms
a backdrop to each of the scenarios; the legacy of today is deep Heat stress leads to poor animal health Increased demand for irrigation
rooted and will leave a major challenge for future generations. It
is projected that by 2015, approximately 2.3 billion adults in the Source: NCB report 2020
13 Anticipating Tomorrowars 18-35 years 36-50 years 51-64 years 18-35 years 36-50 years 51-64 years
Figure 7: Average weekly household expenditure on food 1994-2005 Figure 8: Foodservice market size in Ireland Figure 9: Deli market size in Ireland to 2012
2000-2006
160 1200
160 8 142.74 12008160 1084 1101 1122
142.74 1128 1200 1084 142.74
1101 1122 1128
1039 1062 6.8bn 140 1039 1062
bn 140 7 6.8bn 7140 993 6.4bn 993
6.4bn 1000 914 117.67 6.1bn 1000 914 117.67 1000
117.67 6.1bn 5.7bn 120
120 6 5.4bn 5.7bn 6120 825 5.4bn 825 763
763
8005100 763 5bn 800
Eurobillions
Euro billions
5bn 100 800
Euro billions
Euro billions
Euro billions
100 5
4.2bn 4.2bn 70.75
80
Euro
80 70.75 6004 80 70.75 600
Euro
4 600
Euro
60 3 60 60
3 400 400 400
40
40 2 2 40
200 20 20 200 200
20 1
1
0 0
0 0 0 0 0
1994-1995 1994-1995 1999-2000 2004-2005 1994-1995 1999-2000 2009 2004-2005 2003
06 2000 2001 20021999-20002003 2004 2004-2005
2005 2006 2000 2004
2003 20012005 2002
2006 2003
2007 2008 2004
2009 2005
2010 2006 2012
2011 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012
Source: Household Budget Survey 2004/2005 (preliminary figures) Source: Mintel 2006 Source: Mintel
particularly in developing countries such as Brazil and Mexico, is On the demand side, consumers are spending more money than 5 OECD 2006 Annual Labour Force Statistics
6 Irish Health Promotion Unit
being devoted to6 crops for biofuels rather than for food10. With ever on eating and Total
drinking;
populationaverage weekly spend of food has
Average annual growth rate (millions)
Total population 6
Average annual growth rate (millions)
5.334 5.334 Born in Ireland 5.334 7 36% of the Irish population say they feel 'regularly stressed' according to
Born in Ireland
powerful world leaders such as President Bush determined to rely doubled between 1994/1995 and 2004/2005 from €70 to €142
% change of cohort from 2005 base year
% change of cohort from 2005 base year
5 Not born in Ireland the World Health Organisation (This is below the EU average of 39%)
5 180,000 Not born in Ireland 180,000 180,000
more on biofuels11, this situation 163,227
looks4.131
set to continue. 4.334 (Figure 7). In addition50 to this, tastes 0-15
4.131 and consumer
15-24
163,227 needs
25-44 4.334 45-64 have 65+ total 8 The World Health Organisation
160,000
50 Mediacentre
0-15
163,227 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ total
160,000 160,0003.735
4 3.735 evolved and4 this is
40 reflected in the kind of items on which people 9
37.7 Reuters 140,00040 37.7
Population size
140,000 140,000
Population size
33.5
Population size
33.5
10 The knock-on effects
120,000 on food supply have already been seen in parts of
Looking forward 3to120,000
2020, 112,548
the impact of climate change cannot be now spend3money. 30 Some
120,000 of the key changes in consumer
112,548 spend
26.4 27.1
the 24world. In Mexico 30
112,548
26.4 27.1
100,000 mass protest resulted as the 20.3 cost of the staple maize
24.4 24.4 24
100,000 100,000 20.3
ignored on both a global
80,000
and local level. Like many parts of the are captured through
20 ‘Rise
80,000
of the connoisseur
13.4 12.2
consumer’
15.6 and
16.6
14.2 80,00020
was priced out of the diet of the everyday
13.4 12.2 Mexican. This year alone, world
15.6 16.6
14.2
2 2 9.9 10.2 9.9 10.2
world, Ireland is witnessing
60,000 higher temperatures. Ireland's 46,952
mean ‘Growth
45,597
of ethical10consumption’
60,000 which 8.1
were1.0identified 46,952as two market
45,597
maize prices have increased from 8.1
60,00010 2.4 to 3.5 dollars
46,952 per bushel 45,597
1.0 40,000 35,326
annual temperature1 has0.395
40,000 increased by 0.7°C
35,326
24,425since 1890 and is
1
set to 16,131 highly significant drivers
0
0.395
40,000
during the scenario
35,326
24,425process. 21,124
(35 litres). Reuters 20070 24,425 21,124
21,124 16,131 20,000 16,131
20,000 20,000 11 Mr Bush announced new targets of producing 7.5b gallons of ethanol by-4.1
continue to rise12.0 This 0may not seem like a significant increase but 0 -10 0 -4.1
2012 which would
0-10
consume 40% of US maize (Irish Independent,
UK Rest of Rest of Africa Asia2020 America Other Not -9.6 UK Rest of Rest -10.3
of Africa Asia America Other Not UK -9.6 Rest of Rest of Africa -10.3 Asia America Other Not
2020
differences in temperature of just 2005one or two degrees Celsius could
EU Europe Onestated
nationalities such change-20in consumer 2005 tastes is demonstrated by the
EU Europe 1st February
nationalities stated 2007) -20 EU Europe nationalities stated
2010 2015 2020
significantly affect agricultural productivity and the nature of the growing popularity of eating2010 out which has risen2015 significantly 2020
12 IPCC
crops that will thrive in Ireland (see Table 1 on previous page). The since 2000. This is illustrated by the value of the foodservice market
impacts of bio-fuel and climate change are uncertainties for which which in 2000 was worth €4.2billion. By 2006 the value of this
preparation is needed. Both could significantly influence the cost of market was €6.8billion (Figure 8). This trend comes to the fore in the
food and drink manufacturing and production. Off the Menu scenario.
6
The food610and drink market 10
There is strong evidence of consumers’ increasing desire for higher
6
GNP 9 GNP
9
Employment GNP per
Labour quality in the5 food that they eat as shown in the
6 Million prominence ofLabour Force
Employment 5 6 Million Employment Labour Force
er hea d
5
8 hea dForce 8 GNP per hea d
The dynamics of the Irish domestic food and drink market have
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
average annual growth rate
7 4
4 7 4
size of population
changed significantly in recent years and are being shaped by
size of population
6 6 5 Million 5 Million
supply and demand with the scenarios process identifying drivers 5
3 5 3 3
from both sides.
4 4
2 3 3 2 4 Million 2 4 Million
2 2
1 1 average annual growth rate 1 1 average annual growth rate Shaping the future1 of the I rish food
average and drink
annual growthmark
rate et towards 2020 14
0 3 Million 3 Million
0
0 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020
2005 2010 2015 2020Figure 10: Percentage of energy from food and drink eaten ‘out’
40% 35%
30%
30% 25%
19% 18%
20%
12%
10%
0%
women men
18-35 years 36-50 years 51-64 years
Source: North/South Ireland Food Consumption Survey 2001
the drivers ‘Consumer desire for perceived fresh’ and ‘Increasing match approach to their purchases, buying a combination of total value of agricultural output produced in Ireland by 2015
desire for balance and wellbeing’ as consumers recognise the branded and own-label or even items from the discounter brands. would be 8% lower than it would be otherwise17.
link between good food and good health. The deli market has
8therefore witnessed a high level of growth as consumers show an 160 Looking to the supply-side of the market, 142.74
the rise of the big 1200
The strictness of legislation regarding
1084 issues 1122
1101 such as1128food labelling, food
1039 1062
7 6.8bn 140 993
increased willingness to purchase
5.7bn
6.4bn
fresh and
6.1bn specialised produce 120 players in the retail sector show no signs of abating and this was 1000
117.67 a safety825standards and food marketing will place growing demands on
914
6 5.4bn 763
5rising to an estimated €1,039million in 2007 from €763million in
5bn key consideration when analysing drivers and assessing scenario 800
Euro billions
Euro billions
100
4.2bn
80 70.75
"3 in 10 people in Ireland claim to have
Euro
42003 (Figure 9). Another indication of the increased popularity of development. The growth of Tesco worldwide is continuing at 600
60
3fresh produce can be seen in the relatively small growth in the
40
a great pace supported by new retail formats – Tesco in Ireland 400 changed their eating habits to be healthier in
2
frozen food sector which has risen only 6% between 2000 and showed growth of 16.6% in 2006. By 2007, Tesco had 93 stores in 200
1
2005 (from €298million to €316million).
20
0 Ireland, bringing in over 1 million customers a week14. Although 0
the last 12 months."
0
1994-1995 1999-2000 2004-2005 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 there has been some consumer backlash over ‘Tescopoly’15 and PERIscope 4, 2007
Another growth area is the ready meals sector which has also risen a growth in the popularity of local produce, this looks unlikely to
with €112.4million spent in 2005 compared with only €67million significantly affect the retailer’s success going forward. Further producers. Whilst these factors will present challenges to all businesses,
in 2000, highlighting the increased importance placed on consolidation can also be expected. it is likely to be the small business sector that will struggle the most to
convenience by busy consumers when making grocery choices. adapt to the changes new legislation will demand.
The influence of legislation is difficult to predict but a restructuring
Consumers are shopping for food differently as they become of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and changes to the World From a consumer demand perspective, the food and drink
increasingly savvy in their dealings with brands (‘Rise of the savvy
Total population Trade Organisation (WTO) will no doubt affect the competitiveness market of today can be characterised as one in which the
Average annual growth rate (millions)
6
5.334
consumer’ and Born‘Growth
in Ireland of own label products' were identified as of the Irish food and drink industry16. For example, further trade majority of consumers are struggling to improve their health
% change of cohort from 2005 base year
5 Not born in Ireland
important drivers). While branded
4.131 goods are still
4.334 important, fewer liberalisation
180,000through WTO reforms will lead to reductions in
163,227 and wellbeing
50 whilst0-15seeking 15-24easy and convenient
25-44 45-64 65+ ways total to buy
160,000
consumers
4 associate 3.735own label products with inferior quality. In agricultural supports
140,000 and subsidies, and greater competition from and consume
40 food. Three quarters (77%) 33.5 of Irish consumers 37.7
Population size
fact a3 recent MORI survey found that 45% of respondents want imports. 120,000
The main beneficiaries of such reforms would be large
112,548 claim they
30 try to eat foods that are low or
24.4 lower in
26.4 fat and 83%27.1
24
100,000 20.3 18
retailers to offer a wider variety of own-label lines than they scale corporations
80,000
operating in low-cost environments such as try to buy
20 foods that are
13.4 12.2
natural . However,
15.6 while
16.6 consumers
14.2
2 9.9 10.2
currently do13. Consumers are also very willing to take a mix and Brazil, India and China. It is projected that with
60,000 46,952WTO reform, the 45,597 are aware
10 of the need to stay healthy, their actions do not always
8.1
1.0 40,000 35,326
1 24,425 21,124 0
0.395 20,000 16,131
15 Anticipating Tomorrow 0 -10 -4.1
0 -9.6
UK Rest of Rest of Africa Asia America Other Not -10.3
2005 2020 -20
EU Europe nationalities stated
2010 2015 2020match their good intentions. Pressures such as lack of time and "72% of grocery shoppers in Ireland, always 13 IPSOS MORI 2007
14 Tesco.com
energy mean that consumers may have to compromise their or sometimes check the labels for country 15 This is a term invented by anti-Tesco consumers in the UK, referring to
healthy eating ideals, finding themselves grabbing convenience
of origin." Tesco’s seeming monopoly over the food retail market
foods on-the-go rather than spending time making healthy meals19. 16 Bord Bia Annual Report, Chairman’s statement
Consumers are also eating out more and cooking in the home PERIscope 4, 2007 17 Teagasc Annual Report 2005
less frequently. This behaviour is much more common amongst 18 PERIscope 4, 2007
19 HCHLV Henley World 2006 – 30% of EU consumers say that they ‘eat on
the younger age cohorts and thus this behaviour pattern is likely organic food in Ireland is growing.
the go much more than I used to’ and over 25% of EU consumers say that
to continue in the future, assuming their eating habits remain Average spend on organics per month has grown from €29 to €40 they ‘don’t have enough time to spend cooking and preparing food’; 23%
the same. An acknowledgement of the duality of even the most between 2003 and 2007. of people eat in their car at least once a week, PERIscope 4, 2007
well-intentioned consumers can be found in the vision itself, where 20 HCHLV Henley World 2006
21 In a number of interviews with those in Irish industry, the rising costs of
consumers make healthy choices most of the time yet indulge at "56% of consumers across Ireland agree ‘I am more doing business were cited as a critical challenge both currently and going
weekends and on special occasions. conscious of environmental issues in my choice of forward. Costs include the significant regulatory burden, wage levels,
insurance costs, waste management costs and high utility bills. Retailers
Many consumers adopt a ‘credit-debit’ approach to consumption
products today.'" interviewed expressed similar concerns about their cost burden.
PERIscope 4, 2007 22 For further background on scenario development as a futures
by balancing out their indulgent moments with healthier food
methodology, please see ‘Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation’ by
or drink. Smart shoppers are seeking out the best value, often Kees Van Der Heijden, Wiley & Sons 2004, and ‘The Art of the Long View:
mixing and matching high end, premium products with those Increasingly, consumers are considering the wider environmental Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World’ by Peter Schwartz, Wiley &
from discount chains. Some also seek out more artisan produce at impact of their shopping and eating habits; environmental Sons 1997
farmer’s markets and local outlets. sustainability is rising up the consumer agenda even though it
remains a rare – or sometimes modal – consideration for some.
Traceability and quality assurance remain important to consumers
who want to be reassured about the origins of their food20. Linked
to this concern is the growing popularity of organic food. Although
still small at 0.5% of the total Irish food market, the market for
Shaping the future of the I rish food and drink mark et towards 2020 16The importance of looking to the future It is all too easy for organisations – and sometimes whole industries – to get caught up by short-term planning cycles – preparing for the next 6-12 months with budgetary and cost pressures top of mind. At a time when the Irish food and drink industry is under significant pressure, with rising costs of doing business21 and increasing global competition, it is more important than ever that the industry takes a proactive approach to the future. Effective futures work links back from the future to today, informing decisions and driving strategy at the individual company and overall industry level. There are no future facts; it is critical to look to the present to provide clues about the food and drink market of the future. Scenario development helps to determine what are ‘real leads’ which point towards specific futures and distinguishes these from ‘false trails’ that will lead nowhere. A scenario development methodology was adopted to explore the future as it is robust (grounded in existing evidence) and uses current data as the starting point for the analysis22. 17 Anticipating Tomorrow
Shaping the future of the I rish food and drink mark et towards 2020 18
2. S
cenarios for the future of the
Irish food and drink market2. Scenarios for the future of the Irish food and drink market
Scenario development is a type of futures work which focuses on structure and an increasing focus on reducing waste. The drivers The vertical axis: Attitudes towards Consumption
critical uncertainties. A helpful way to think about the future is to interact in different ways in the scenarios. They move in different
remember that while it is uncertain, and much of it is beyond our directions, depending upon how the axes of uncertainty push and At the ‘Our Planet’ end of the axis, all consumption is viewed with
control, we can influence some aspects of it and prepare ourselves pull to create four plausible and internally coherent – but extremely sustainability, environmental and ethical concerns in mind. People
for possible outcomes. Futures work is not about predicting or divergent – worlds. are aware that unbridled consumption cannot continue and are
forecasting the future, but rehearsing for it: creating and exploring taking proactive, assertive measures to limit their own consumption
multiple possible futures, with the purpose of taking responsibility Whatever future it is that an organisation or individual might footprint.
for what the future holds. prefer or fear most, it is important to remember that these four
worlds will probably co-exist, and that the most likely scenario At the ‘My Life’ end of the axis, despite the constraints of
Good futures work improves organisational agility because it for the domestic food and drink market for 2020 involves increasingly strict regulations around all types of consumption,
increases the speed at which organisations – from public sector a combination of all of them. While the descriptions and the people are determined to live their lives on their own terms; they
to business to third sector – are able to identify and respond to associated illustrations represent extremes, elements of all four are resent their behaviour being constrained and go to extreme
change in their environment. It helps organisations identify future happening right now – at home and around the world – therefore lengths to pursue continued consumption.
strategy that will be robust against a range of future responsibilities. included in the scenarios are cutting-edge, global examples of
where the future might lie. The scenario names help to embed them as a strategic tool within
The research and thinking that went into this report identified two organisations and allow them to be easily referenced.
axes of uncertainty which are likely to influence the future of the The horizontal axis: Motivations for Eating
Irish domestic food and drink market: consumer Motivations for Note that the scenarios do not represent the policy position
Eating and Attitudes towards Consumption. The four scenarios At the ‘Food as Ritual’ end of the axis, food is about togetherness, of Bord Bia or of the Irish food and drink industry; they are
emerged from the crossing of the two axes. enjoyment and is very ritualised. Food is the ‘glue’ of society regardless intended to provide provocative stimuli about how the future
of whether people live in a city or the countryside. At the ‘Food as might play out when we consider the extremes of possibility.
Each of the scenarios depicts key social, economic, political, Performance’ end of the axis, food is seen as a means to an end rather
environmental and organisational drivers of change. These include than an end within itself. Food is consumed for functional benefits
rising obesity, experience society, changing household and family rather than broader, social and/or emotional reasons.
21 Anticipating TomorrowFigure 11: Scenarios
Round the Table Our Planet From the Greenhouse
Local & Ethical Natural & Nutritious
Attitudes towards Consumption
Food as
Food as Ritual Motivation for Eating Motivation for Eating
Performance
Off the Menu My Life In the Lab
Indulgent & Experiential Performance & Achievement
Source: Bord Bia
Shaping the future of the I rish food and drink mark et towards 2020 22Round the Table
Spurred by increasingly serious flash flooding and extreme weather make the dishes, as their parents were too busy to teach them In terms of challenges, new skills will be required to increase the
conditions, a more community minded world has developed. when they were young. As a result, many communities rely on efficiency and indeed viability of increased local food production.
The challenging weather conditions have led many individuals ‘nannies’ – who are renowned for finding ingenious ways to make Mass market production would be undermined in this world due
to believe that they must consider the wider environmental tasty meals from limited ingredients – to cook for them on special to its high energy and resource usage but questions surround what
consequences of their actions in order to avoid a worsening occasions. Cooking skills are highly revered and growing numbers model of production could feasibly act as a replacement.
situation for the generations that follow. Communities seek to of people actively pursue the skills to improve their social standing.
reduce their consumption of natural resources and the impacts of
their lifestyles by sourcing locally and trading essential supplies. Big brands and corporations struggle here unless they can prove
their local credentials and are ethically and environmentally
In order to save on resource consumption, priority goes to growing responsible throughout their supply chain. However, their
high yield and multi-purpose crops that can be used for both economies of scale and knowledge base may allow them to lead
food and fuel, such as rapeseed oil. As a result, food choice is more the way in terms of environmentally friendly advances around
limited and dependent on local environmental conditions. Periodic reducing packaging and using multi-purpose crops to increase
scarcity may be experienced in bad crop years, meaning that some energy efficiency.
people suffer from nutritional deficiencies such as scurvy. However,
generally people are both physically and mentally happy in this Opportunities and challenges for the industry
world. Health problems such as obesity and heart disease are
virtually eliminated as a result of eating healthy, simple food. The main opportunities for the industry in this world centre on local
and regional manufacturers. They could lead the way in finding
The pleasures of large group eating and community life boost innovative ways to use a more limited set of ingredients or look
mental health. At the same time, the ritual of group eating is both into new techniques for growing a wider range of foods locally. The
fun and more energy-efficient, replacing pub culture as the main opportunities for larger manufacturers are more limited given the
form of social gathering. While great recipes and ideas are always challenges of being a big brand in this localised world.
available on the internet, few people have the skills required to
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