BBPA & CGA Quarterly Beer Overview - www.cga.co.uk - British Beer and Pub Association
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BBPA & CGA
Quarterly Beer Overview
www.cga.co.uk
Contents
1.0 Outlet Universe Trends
2.0 Beer Performance
3.0 Emerging Consumer Trends
3.1 Treat Spend and Premiumisation
3.2 Investment in Al Fresco Hospitality
3.3 A Boom in the Suburbs
3.4 Return of great British local
3.5 Trial, Trust and the Right Range
3.6 Polarisation
3.7 Path to Purchase
3.8 Health and Wellness
3.9 Sustainability & Ethics
4.0 Business Confidence
4.1 Sector Confidence
4.2 Outlook on Future Landscape
4.3 Consumer Perspective
4.4 Staff & Engagement
4.5 Future of Tech
Summary:
• As of the end of May 2021, over 76% of licensed premises are open; with a higher proportion of city centre
premises trading
• By the end of May, just under four in five (79.9%) of inner London’s licensed premises were trading. That is
above the nationwide average of 76.2%, but well below many other big cities
• Over the full 5 weeks of outdoor trading, trade up was evident within LAD, as Standard Lager lost share to
World Lager and Premium 4%
• Beer performs the best in terms of VolRoS across Northern regions despite a greater decline across
distribution – notably Yorkshire and the North East
• Tenanted, being largely pubs, fared better than other channels with Independents the harder hit of the
segments
• World Lager and Stout continue to be the standout performers for draught beer, with premium lager
categories continuing to steal share from standard lager
• Within packaged beer, lager saw a contraction in share as consumers prefer to choose a draught option
• Nearly half business leaders are planning range rationalisation for drinks, of which 41% are planning to do
so within their draught beer and cider range
www.cga.co.uk
Outlet Universe
Trends
Market Growth Monitor
As of the end of May 2021, over 76% of licensed premises are open; with a
higher proportion of city centre premises trading
CGA Market Recovery Monitor – June 2021
Market Growth Monitor
Total known sites at the end of May 2021 is 8.1% down vs end of March
2020
CGA Market Recovery Monitor – June 2021
Market Growth Monitor
By the end of May, just under four in five (79.9%) of inner London’s
licensed premises were trading. That is above the nationwide average of
76.2%, but well below many other big cities
CGA Market Recovery Monitor – June 2021
Market Growth Monitor
The pub sector is now not far off pre-COVID levels, with around nine in
ten high street pubs (92.9%), food pubs (91.9%) and community pubs
(89.3%) back up and running
CGA Market Recovery Monitor – June 2021
2020 – a brief overview
9,379
Net decline in Britain’s licensed
premises through the year of
Covid
-2,360 Pubs
CGA Outlet Index March 2020 to May 2021 [9]
Optimism and Confidence We can expect to see further casualties, albeit
to a lesser extent than witnessed throughout
the pandemic
1 in 10
The majority of
whom plan to close
between 5-10% of
their estate
Business leaders said there will be some
venues they will keep permanently closed
With a further 9% having already closed sitesFollowing 2020 trends, pubs outperformed the wider market but
poor weather drove a more negative performance after a positive
start
Average weekly total value sales index vs equivalent 2019 week
76%
72%
65% 68% 66% 67%
48% 49%
43%
37%
17/04/2021 27/04/2021 01/05/2021 08/05/2021 15/05/2021
GB Pubs
87% 79% 63% 50% 43%
Drinks
89% 87% 67% 54% 46%
Source: CGA Drinks Recovery Tracker April and CGA Managed EPOS like-for-like data – April 2021Consumers sought out unique to trade categories like draught beer & cider,
cocktails and shots and shooters upon return
Like-for-like Drinks Sector Performance during outdoor trading (5 weeks to
15/05/2021 vs 2019)
LAD Wine Spirits Cocktails Soft Drinks
50.4%
Value
RoS Chg
vs YA
-28.1% -29.1% -32.0%
-58.4%
CGA Managed EPOS DataWith indoor trading a boost to food sales saw value sales index
approach 2019 levels, with the week to 05/06 ahead due to bank
holiday
Average weekly total value sales index vs equivalent 2019 week
GB Pubs
110% 106%
89% 88%
81% 78% 81% 79%
76% 74%
22/05/2021 29/05/2021 05/06/2021 12/06/2021 19/06/2021
77% 65% 98% 82% 77%
Drinks
74% 69% 104% 87% 82%
Source: CGA GB Drinks Recovery Tracker – Managed Group EPOS DataWith indoor trading, categories linked to food-led visits like softs and wine
outperformed, while cocktails remained the standout performing categories
Like-for-like drinks sector performance during Indoor trading (4 weeks
to 12/06/2021)
LAD Wine Spirits Cocktails Soft Drinks
Value
Chg vs 96.3%
YA
-23.8% -17.9% -25.8% -17.9%
Managed EPOS dataBeer Performance
Over the full 5 weeks of outdoor trading, trade up was evident within
LAD, as Standard Lager lost share to World Lager and Premium 4%
Share of LAD Volumes – 5 weeks of outdoor trading vs 2019
27.4%
24.2%
22.9%
17.0%
12.6%
11.7% 12.3%
9.5% 9.8% 10.2%
8.3%
6.7% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8%
5.4%
0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Standard Lager World Lager Cider Premium Lager Cask Ale Ale Premium 4% Stout RTDs NAB/LAB
Lager
2019 2021
Source: CGA GB Drinks Recovery Tracker – Managed Group EPOS DataA similar story is evident when comparing P04 & P05 TY vs 2YA, with
clear signs of growth for premium lagers at the expense of standard
lager
Share of LAD Volumes – P04 & P05 2021 vs P04 & P05 2019
28.9%
25.7%
17.0%
13.4%12.9%
12.5%
10.3%11.1% 10.1% 9.4% 10.6%
8.1%
7.2% 7.9% 6.7%
5.4%
0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Standard World Lager Cider Premium Cask Ale Ale Premium 4% Stout RTDs Speciality NAB/LAB
Lager Lager Lager Lager
2019 2021
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 17MAT data to P05 2021
Beer’s share of total wet continues to grow vs YA, primarily at the
expense of soft drinks
Total wet volume:
GB Drinks Sector Performance MAT P05 (22/05/2021) -69.0%
Volume Beer Wine Spirits Cider Soft Drinks
Chg vs YA
-67.7% -68.3%
-70.6% -69.6%
-71.9%
63.1%
% Volume
9.2% 21.1%
Share 4.5% 1.8%
PP Chg
vs YA
+2.5pp -0.2pp 0.0pp +0.2pp -2.2pp
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 18MAT data to P05 2021
Beer has performed really well across the pub segments, however
restaurants have prevailed as a key segment driven by a strong
VolRoS
Total Beer Performance MAT to P05 (22/05/2021)
Distribution Volume RoS Volume
Bar -50.9% -45.9% -73.4%
Bar Restaurant -40.6% -49.5% -70.0%
Casual Dining Restaurant -43.6% -52.9% -73.4%
Community Pub -39.2% -38.9% -62.9%
Food Pub -33.8% -46.3% -64.4%
High Street Pub -37.5% -50.5% -69.1%
Hotel -39.4% -56.1% -73.4%
Large Venue -64.1% -59.9% -85.6%
Nightclub -66.9% -55.2% -85.2%
Restaurant -45.9% -36.2% -65.5%
Sports/Social Club -52.0% -43.5% -72.8%
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 19MAT data to P05 2021
Beer performs the best in terms of VolRoS across Northern regions
despite a greater decline across distribution
Total Beer Performance MAT to P05 (22/05/2021)
Distribution Volume RoS Volume
Central -44.0% -41.4% -67.2%
East -40.0% -40.8% -64.4%
Lancashire -45.8% -40.2% -67.6%
London -42.9% -43.9% -68.0%
North East -44.3% -39.9% -66.5%
Scotland -53.0% -51.5% -77.2%
South & South East -38.7% -42.6% -64.8%
South West -37.9% -40.6% -63.1%
Wales -51.1% -42.4% -71.9%
Yorkshire -46.6% -38.3% -67.1%
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 20MAT data to P05 2021
Across Pubs, the South West prevails as an important region for
total beer performance, driven by distribution
Total Beer performance across pubs split by region
MAT to P05 (22/05/2021)
Distribution Volume RoS Volume
Central -36.1% -43.9% -64.1%
East -32.9% -41.7% -60.9%
Lancashire -38.4% -43.0% -64.9%
London -32.6% -49.1% -65.7%
North East -38.8% -41.0% -63.9%
Scotland -50.3% -50.9% -75.6%
South & South East -31.1% -44.9% -62.0%
South West -29.9% -43.2% -60.2%
Wales -47.7% -41.4% -69.3%
Yorkshire -40.2% -40.0% -64.1%
*Data is in low distribution due to double market breaks being applied, which has an impact on robustness levels; therefore data must Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 21
only be used directionallyMAT data to P05 2021
Tenanted, being largely pubs, fared better than other channels with
Independents the harder hit of the segments
Total Beer Performance MAT to P05 (22/05/2021)
Distribution Volume RoS Volume
Free -49.2% -42.4% -70.7%
Managed -34.6% -52.4% -68.9%
Tenanted -37.3% -39.3% -61.9%
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 22MAT data to P05 2021
Draught Beer gained share of the sales mix post-lockdown as consumers
sought unique categories they weren’t able to replicate at home
94.8%
Beer Format Volume Performance
MAT to 22/05/2021
Draught Packaged
Of Total Beer volume sold in the MAT to
-67.0%
22/05/2021 was on Draught
+2.2%pts vs. YA
-77.3%
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 23MAT data to P05 2021
World Lager and Stout continue to be the standout performers
within beer, with premium lager categories continuing to steal share
from standard lager
Total Beer Subcategory Volume Performance
(vs MAT YA)
Standard Premium Premium 4% World Packaged
Stout NAB/LAB Keg Ale Cask
Lager Lager Lager Lager Ale
4%
No/Low ABV
Volume
Performance -68.5% -67.1% -66.5% -62.7% -64.5% -72.8% -73.7% -70.1% -69.4%
vs YA
Volume Share of
Total Beer 32.2% 12.0% 9.0% 18.0% 7.3% 0.3% 9.4% 0.8% 10.9%
Change vs YA -0.8pp +0.3pp +0.3pp +2.4pp +0.7pp -0.1pp -2.1pp -0.1pp -0.6pp
www.cga.co.uk
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 24MAT data to P05 2021
World Lager and Stout continue to be the standout performers for
draught beer, with premium lager categories continuing to steal
share from standard lager
Draught Beer Subcategory Volume Performance
(vs MAT YA)
Standard Premium Premium 4% World Keg Keg
Stout NAB/LAB Cask
Lager Lager Lager Lager Standard Premium
4%
No/Low ABV
Volume
Performance -68.4% -64.9% -66.3% -57.9% -64.1% -68.3% -75.3% -68.5% -69.4%
vs YA
Volume Share of
Total Beer 33.9% 11.4% 9.4% 16.4% 7.5% 0.0% 7.1% 2.8% 11.5%
Change vs YA -1.6pp +0.7pp +0.2pp +3.5pp +0.6pp 0.0pp -2.4pp -0.1pp -0.9pp
www.cga.co.uk
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 25MAT data to P05 2021
Within packaged beer, lager saw a contraction in share as
consumers preferring to choose a draught option
Packaged Beer Subcategory Volume Performance
(vs MAT YA)
Standard Premium Premium 4% World
Stout NAB/LAB Ale
Lager Lager Lager Lager
4%
Volume Performance
vs YA -88.0% -79.0% -78.8% -78.2% -75.8% -73.1% -70.1%
Volume Share of Packaged
Beer
1.5% 22.6% 2.5% 47.8% 3.4% 6.0% 16.2%
Change vs YA -1.3pp -1.8pp -0.2pp -1.9pp +0.2pp +1.0pp +3.9pp
www.cga.co.uk
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P05 22.05.2021 26Looking Ahead Emerging trends in 2021 and beyond
1. 2. 3.
Pedestrianisation Midweek flourish Treat Spend and
of High Streets and earlier day Premiumisation
parts
Short term Medium term Long termTreat Spend and Premiumisation
£
01
While there will be some consumers saving
money, more consumers will be in treat mode
17%
Of consumers strongly agree that they plan to
21%
of GB consumers strongly
“be more careful on how much they spend” agree that they plan to
in pubs, bars and restaurants when they’re
“treat themselves”
allowed back out
when they go out to eat or drink again
A total of 60% GB consumers
agree with this
2021 Hospitality Consumer Forecast. Sample size: 3,000Treat Spend and Premiumisation
£
01
With consumers in treat mode when the market reopens, the immediate trade up
opportunity will be greater, and high quality food and drink will play a part in this
% of GB consumers who will be seeking high quality Vs. high value items in reopened market:
I plan on treating myself by Drinks Food
choosing high quality items as a
one off special occasion but then
am likely to return to more value
options
32% 34%
I plan on treating myself by 43%
choosing high quality items when 48%
visiting pubs, bars and Cider
restaurants again
Value will be key for me, so I will
be looking for value items when
20%
visiting pubs, bars and 23%
restaurants again
Sample size: Drinks: 2456, Food: 2457Treat Spend and Premiumisation
£
01
This celebration mentality of consumers revisiting the market creates fertile
ground for trade-up in those initial first weeks
Drivers for upgrading drinks out of home
37.2%
29.8% 29.6%
16.0% 15.1%
13.5%
11.7% 11.1%
9.6% 9.1%
The quality of Price If it's a special Special Visibility of brands Sample/taster Influence of friends Bar staff Menu Suggestions for
brands available occasion offers/discounts on the bar opportunities recommendations recommendations food pairing
Avg GB
Sample Size: GB 2243 BrandTrack October 2020 [31]1. 2. 3. 4. Investment A boom in Return of Trial, Trust in Al Fresco the suburbs great British and the Right Hospitality local Range Short term Medium term Long term
Al Fresco Hospitality 01
Escape to Freight Island
– Manchester
Freight Island has a wide selection
of food and drink stalls, and have
rotating DJ nights and performances
including drag queens and fire
dancers.01
Demand for visiting venues close to home is
A boom in the suburbs
likely to continue long after restrictions are
lifted as many predict that they will continue
working from home post COVID-19
70%
Of those able to work from home predict they will be
working from home in some capacity post COVID-19
Sample size: 773A boom in the suburbs 01
Consumers are over three times more likely to visit local venues more often than they
are less often when the market reopens
Locations consumers are planning to visit hospitality venues more often than they would have pre COVID-19:
28% 20% 17%
Local to your place of City/Town Centre Local to your place of
residence work
Vs 12% less often Vs 21% less often Vs 16% less often
Sample size: City Centre: 902, Residence: 912, Work: 588A boom in the suburbs 01
Changing consumer behaviours are expected to continue among GB consumers,
impacting the on premise through the likes of occasion and outlet choice
87%
of consumers are visiting outlets
local to them
46% Of which
30%
will continue to do so more often after COVID
are doing so more often or the same
as normal
CGA BrandTrack, Oct 2020 [36]POWERED BY
A boom in the suburbs 01
Almost three quarters of Business Leaders expect the trend of consumers supporting
local will impact their business positively, and many are shifting strategy based on
this
73% And
Of Business Leaders predict that
consumers ‘desire to stay/support
local’ will positively impact their
business in 2021
54%
Are planning to integrate this into
their planning and strategy for the
yearA boom in the suburbs 01
But this doesn’t mean the end for city centre venues which still feature high on the
priorities for consumers when restrictions are fully lifted
When things are back to 'normal', which, if any, of the following are you looking forward to?– Top 10 out of 15:
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
59% 55% 49% 42% 30% 29% 28% 23% 18% 17%
Going out for Going on Feeling safe and Visits feeling The spontaneity Travelling Visiting city Music Going to a Going to a music
a meal holiday comfortable 'normal' of visits further to eat centre locations concerts/gigs food/drink festival
eating and and drink out to eat and drink festival
drinking out out
Sample size: 1004A boom in the suburbs 01
However, when looking at consumers who typically visited each channel pre-Covid,
confidence to return to drink-led & late night venues has caught up with other venue types
Proportion of consumers who typically visit the below sectors who would feel comfortable resuming their normal visits to the following sectors
when government restrictions are lifted:
75% 75% 73% 75% 73% 72% 70% 70% 70% 69%
62% 63% 63%
50%
Cafes and coffee Fast food venues Late night bars/ Bars Restaurants Pubs Other leisure
shops nightclubs venues or spaces
(e.g. cinema, food
hall, street food etc.)
Jun-20 Jan-21
2021 Hospitality Consumer Forecast, CGA COVID-19 Jan 2021 Sample size: Jan 21: 225 – 2,431, Jun 2020: 2,122-4,585The revival of the local 01
Almost a quarter of consumers eating and drinking out more locally have
realised their experience has lived up to those further away
Why are you choosing to visit local venues more often?
Consumers eating and drinking out locally more than pre-COVID
60%
55%
47%
33%
24% 22%
18% 15% 15%
They are To support local To avoid busy To avoid public I have realised I'm working from I've realised I The people I go Local venues are
convenient businesses areas (e.g. city transport they are just as home so am prefer venues out with choose typically cheaper
centres) good as venues staying local local to me than local venues
further away ones further awayThe revival of the local 01
Pub opening rates of the remaining universe have been higher than
other segments
Percentage of known pubs open at end of May
93% 92% 89%
High Street Pubs Food Pubs Community Pubs
Market Recovery MonitorThe revival of the local 01
Consumers wish to support the sector once when it reopens and will
favour independent and local venues
Do you think you’ll do any of the following to support hospitality venues as they begin to reopen in the
coming months? Please select all that apply
21% 22% 17%
Plan to visit independent Plan to visit more hospitality
Will try to eat and drink out
pubs, bars and restaurants venues local to where they
more frequently
more often live
BrandTrack Feb 2021. Sample size: 2551The revival of the local 01
Serves that are difficult to recreate at home, such as cocktails and ale, have been
missed the most by consumers who typically drink them out
Proportion of typical category drinkers who are most looking forward to drinking this category out again:
(e.g. 40% of typical OOH lager consumers are most looking forward to drinking lager out again)
45%
40% 41%
35%
30%
27%
22% 24%
20%
11%
Lager Wine Coffee Cocktails Ale Soft drinks Craft Beer Cider Gin Tea
(including
sparkling wine)
Sample size: Lager: 937, Wine: 918, Coffee: 957, Cocktails: 516, Ale:
2021 Hospitality Consumer Forecast 552, Softs: 1,014, Craft Beer: 446, Cider: 567, Gin: 646, Tea: 514Trial, Trust & Range 01
There were 91% fewer brands launched in H2 2020 than there were over the same period in
2019, with a slight shift towards standard in softs and spirits however
New drinks brands launched post-lockdown
vs YA
Jul - Dec 2019 Jul - Dec 2020
48% 2,321 28% 46%
205 33%
14% 21%
9%
LAD Soft Drinks Spirits Wine/Champagne LAD Soft Drinks Spirits
% of NPDs that are premium
83%
73%
41% 45%
12% 13%
9%
Source: CGA OPMS Data to P13 26.12.2020 44Trial, Trust & Range 01
Nearly half business leaders are planning range rationalisation for drinks, of which
41% are planning to do so within their draught beer and cider range
Which of the following categories do you expect to limit on
How important will rationalising / shortening drink menus? Please select all that apply
drinks menus be to your business over the
next 12 months?
46% 46%
5% 41%
37% 37%
Fundamental
24%
Important 42%
54%
Not important
12%
Spirits Packaged Draught Wine Cocktails Softs Hot drinks
beer/cider beer/cider
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY Q1 2021Trial, Trust & Range 01
With operators keen to please customers on re-opening, items that are seen to be
traditional favourites are likely to be prioritised, along with a shift to quality. So
making sure your range satisfies the most customers is key
Thinking about your food and drink offering upon re-opening, which of the following will you prioritise?
Please select up to three
60%
37%
29% 29% 27% 26%
21% 21%
13%
10% 9% 3%
Traditional High Healthy Local Items from Easy to British High Value Indulgent New items Low cost
customer quality options produce trusted prepare produce margin items options items
favourites items suppliers items items
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS SURVEY Q1 2021Trial, Trust & Range 01
Consumers are likely to stick with familiar options, however there’s opportunity
to introduce new options for those who are looking for something new
% of GB consumers who intend to try something different Vs. sticking to their usual choices in reopened market:
Drinks Food
I’m likely to order
something different to
what I typically had out
pre-COVID-19 16% 15%
25% 29%
I'm likely to continue
ordering what I typically Cider
had out pre-COVID-19
A mixture of both 59% 56%
Sample size: Drinks: 2464, Food: 2475Trial, Trust & Range 01
Consumers are more demanding compared to summer 2020, seeking more
features across the board, but value offers and quality still come out top
Compared to before COVID-19, when drinking out, it's more important to me now that my drink is... (Top 10)
34%
28% 29%
22%
19%
17% 17% 16% 15% 15% 15%
11% 11% 11% 11%
10%
8% 8% 8%
5%
Mar-21 Aug-20
Sample size: March 2021: 1004, Aug 2020: 3224Trial, Trust & Range 01
However the on-trade still remains the channel to build brands and recruit consumers
The on-trade has For brands drunk in the last
accounted for 3 months,
62%
of sales for the top 10 NPD
71%
of consumers had tried them
launches in the last 2 years for the first time in the out of
home
Source: CGA OPM and Nielsen Scantrack to December 2019 (left),
Aggregated sample size: Brand Builder: 11,215 (right)Trial, Trust & Range 01
The on-trade still holds significant value for suppliers as the channel to
recruit new drinkers across both channels and build brands
49%
Compared to only
of GB consumers have said that
of consumers who wanted to try a
2%
an on-trade experience has brand while out as a result of seeing it
prompted them to purchase a in a supermarket
certain drinks brand from a
shop/supermarket to drink at
home
Sample size: Brand Builder: 9,5941. 2. 3. 4.
Polarisation Path to Health and Sustainability &
Purchase Wellness Ethics
Short term Medium term Long termPolarisation 01
Over half of GB consumers plan to spend the same or more once ‘normal activities’
resume, but a large group also plan to save more and cut down their spending
Thinking about when restrictions have eased and you are allowed to resume “normal activities” enjoyed prior to COVID-19,
which of the following best describes your attitude towards spend your disposable income:
I plan to spend as much money as possible on the things I used to do,
saving as little as I can afford for the future 3%
I plan to spend more money on things I used to do, saving less than I
did previously for the future 5%
I plan to resume how I spent money prior to COVID-19, saving the same
and spending the same 47%
I plan to save more money for the future and spend less on the things I
used to 31%
I plan to save as much money as possible for the future and not spend
on the things I used to 15%
www.cga.co.uk CGA BrandTrack, Feb 2021 [52]Polarisation 01
Average spend on food and drink has decreased marginally since the first 10 days of reopening
in April
Average spend per head on food
since May 17th:
£16.96
Average spend per head on
food since May 17th:
Vs £17.01 in April 2021 £15.93
Vs £16.07 in April 2021
Sample size: England April Food: 190, Drink: 236, GB May Food: 284,
Drink: 233Polarisation 01
The affect of COVID-19 on consumers’ financial situation is polarised, with
consumers experiencing both positive and negative impacts, but slightly more
consumers indicate more spending potential
Which of following statements about the impact of COVID-19 on your financial situation apply to you?
I have saved I have spent
I am facing My disposable
I have been able money I would money I would
financial hardship income has None of these
to save money usually spend on usually spend on
due to the impact decreased due to apply
generally eating & drinking eating & drinking
of COVID-19 COVID-19
out out on different
things
14% 22% 32% 31% 20% 8%
Sample size: 1002Polarisation 01
Polarisation is evident in consumers’ expected reactions to price increases, slightly
more consumers would reduce frequency, but a third would accept the expense
If the cost of eating and drinking out were to increase, would you:
38% 33% 27%
Spend the same amount on a Accept the extra expense and Try to spend less on a visit but go
visit but go out less often spend more on going out in out the same amount as before
general
Decrease frequency Decrease spend
Sample size: 2508Path to Purchase 01
The proportion of consumers who plan their visits to the On Premise
is only likely to increase as the market reopens
Compared to before the outbreak of COVID-19…
51% 46% 36%
Are more likely to pre-book Are likely to plan their visits Are more likely to pre-book a
a table for food in more detail table for drinks
Sample size: 979Path to Purchase 01
However, when outdoor dining/drinking reopened, consumers were enjoying the face to face
interaction through table service, with satisfaction with digital methods declining
Which of the following methods of ordering have you used in the past Satisfaction with method Vs. July 2020
week?
Ordered through table service
46%
87% +3pp
44%
Ordered digitally through my 25%
76% -8pp
phone 30%
20%
Ordered at the bar 73% -10pp
38%
16%
Pre-ordered ahead of visiting
17%
April 2021
74% +4pp
July 2020
Sample size: 330Path to Purchase 01
Whilst interacting with staff is preferred by over half of consumers, the proportion who’d
prefer to use technology when eating or drinking out has increased since August
What would create a good experience for you when visiting pubs, bars, restaurants and
other similar venues when you next visit? (Indexed vs Aug 2020)
Interaction with staff
Using technology to book,
order, pay etc.
+3pp vs. Aug 2020
43%
57%
-3pp vs. Aug 2020
Sample size: Feb 2021: 913, Aug 2020: 4970Path to Purchase 01
When placing orders, consumers don’t like being neglected, rushed and told that their
favourite food & drink items not being available
When placing your order in a pub, bar or restaurant which of the following is the most frustrating?
30%
22%
18%
7% 7%
6% 5% 4% 3%
Struggling to get my Items I wanted not Being rushed to Not being able to Being unable to My server not Making Not having an Having to get the
server's attention being available place my order customise my order answer my recording / writing recommendations ordering app or manager to take my
questions my order down of additional things online service allergy order
to buy
Zonal Go Technology, Feb 2021 59Path to Purchase 01
Quick and convenient, smoother ordering process and being able to track order and
payment are the top reasons why consumers like to use technology when out
What do you like most about using technology when out in pubs, bars and restaurants?
31% 29% 17% 14% 13% 13% 11% 10% 7%
It is quick and It makes I can keep It makes me There are It provides It's easier to It is fun to use It's a more
convenient ordering easy track of my feel safer fewer delays more use if I'm out personalised
order and seamless in a group experience
payments service
more easily
Zonal Go Technology, Feb 2021 60Health and Wellness 01
As a result of the last year, consumers are more health conscious than
ever
73% 24% strongly
of GB proactively try to lead a agree with this
healthy lifestyle statement
(+4pp vs 1YA)
+5pp vs 1YA
Sample size: 2020: 3,000, 2019: 4,984
61Health and Wellness 01 CBD infused food and drink
Kalifornia Kitchen
- London
On the drinks side this place offers CBD-infused coffee -
that's coffee infused with Cannabidiol - as well as immunity
booster shots and freshly-made super juices. It also taps into
other trends like veganism, smoothie bowls, healthy foods.Health and Wellness 01
The opportunity for low or non-alcoholic drinks is also evident, with 31% of GB
planning to drink less or no alcohol in the On Premise when venues reopen
18% 3%
Will cut alcohol out completely
Of GB predict they will drink less alcohol when
out compared to pre-COVID-19 10% Don’t drink alcohol
Sample size: 921Sustainability & Ethics 01
Community spirit developed through lockdown is
apparent, with more than 1 in 8 investing more in
the local community than they did a year ago
12%
Of GB invest in the local community
more than they did a year ago
Sample size: 993Sustainability & Ethics 01
Ethical and sustainable considerations continue to become of increasing importance
to consumers when choosing where to visit
How important is it to you that the eating and drinking out brands you visit:
(Vs. one year ago)
Treat workers fairly Source environmentally Source environmentally Invest in the local community
friendly ingredients friendly packaging
67% 46% 45% 41%
= +5pp +2pp +10pp
[65]
Sample size: Feb 2021: 5004, Feb 2020:4985Sustainability & Ethics 01
Nearly double the proportion of consumers intend to drink local drink brands over
imported ones when they return to the market
20%
Of consumers will drink local
26%
Of GB are buying more local produce
drink brands when they return to than they were a year ago
hospitality venues
Sample size: 911Sustainability & Ethics 01
There are expectations to pay more for elements of sustainability for the majority of
consumers, particularly with respect to locally or environmentally sources products
Which of the following would you pay more for, if it were available? (top 10)
45%
18% 16% 15%
11% 10% 9% 7% 7% 7%
I would not pay Locally sourced Seasonal food Locally sourced Environmentally Actively reducing Organic food and Environmentally Environmentally Reducing food
more for any of food products / and drink drinks products/ friendly food energy usage drink ingredients friendly food and friendly cutlery waste through
the above ingredients produce ingredients products / drinks packaging where smaller products
ingredients appropriate (e.g.
wooden spoons
in place of
plastic)
Sample size: 2021- 2288, 2020 -GB State of the Nation
1. 2. 3. 4.
Re-shape the call file Drive visibility across Understand and Support licensees and
to embrace new the new paths to position your portfolio operators in their
trends purchase right recovery
.
Drinks Suppliers – Driving SuccessGB State of the Nation
1. 2. 3. 4.
Take advantage of Understand an ever- Find the balance Estate Management
short term changing consumer between service and
opportunity managing costs
.
Retailers – Driving SuccessPOWERED BY CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021 SECTOR CONFIDENCE
POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Business Leaders’ confidence has rebounded, as optimism returns to the market,
albeit tempered with some immediate challenges
Business leader confidence across the market and in own business
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Feb Feb Feb Jul- Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Apr- Jun Sep Oct- Nov Feb
-14 -15 -16 16 -16 -17 -17 -17 -17 -18 -18 -18 -18 -19 -19 -19 -19 -20 20 -20 -20 20 -20 -21
General market 86% 93% 74% 15% 36% 47% 43% 34% 30% 34% 47% 36% 39% 39% 41% 30% 44% 60% 5% 16% 9% 2% 18% 49%
Own business 90% 91% 83% 24% 61% 68% 66% 66% 52% 64% 75% 67% 63% 68% 65% 58% 64% 83% 15% 32% 37% 8% 35% 54%POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
67%
of Business Leaders state their
businesses are viable given
anticipated future trading
Compared to just 20% in Q4
2020POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
If no additional support is announced
in March’s Budget
1 in 10
state that their business will not
survivePOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Amongst unstable business confidence, operators are looking to Government for
support, through an extensions of rates holiday, VAT reduction and furlough
What are the priorities for your business from Government upon reopening?
80%
73%
53%
49% 49%
30% 29% 27% 26%
21% 17%
Extension of VAT reduction Extend furlough Increase and VAT reduction Beer/alcohol Deferral or Return of the Support on rent A deferral of tax A repeat of Eat
business rates extended until the end of extension in to be applied to duty reduction extension of Job Retention liabilities until Out to Help Out
holiday beyond March June grant amounts alcoholic loan repayment Bonus the end of the
beverages periods yearPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
An extension to business rates holiday to March 2022 and a VAT cut to 5% would
nearly double the number of hospitality businesses able to return to profit in 2021
Proportion of businesses that predict they would return to profit in
2021 under the following circumstances
3-month extension to furlough and re- If the VAT cut to 5% and the business rates
opening towards the start of Q2 2021 holiday were extended to March 2022
37% 66%POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Alongside boosting the economy and job creation, it is also felt that the
sector can support recovery within communities
As we emerge from the pandemic where do you think the hospitality sector can make the greatest contribution to the UK
economy and society?
81%
65%
53%
33%
22%
10% 8% 6% 6%
Boosting the Job creation and Bringing Community health & Renewing its tax Offering career Community Upskilling and Raising money for
national economy employment communities personal wellbeing contributions pathways for outreach (e.g. training its charities and good
opportunities together employees providing support to workforce causes
people in need)POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Opening with a one month delay on alcohol sales is the restriction that would make
the largest proportion of hospitality businesses unviable
Proportion of operators who deem the following
restrictions will render their business unviable
When businesses can re-open
37%
48%
business leaders believe that
32%
18%
opening with a one month delay on 11%
alcohol sales would make the
business unviable Alcohol only with One-household 2-hour customer Two-household
a substantial/table rule time slot rule
mealPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
87%
of business leaders agree that the
risk-assessed COVID-secure
guidelines they were following in July
2020 were effective in ensuring overall
safety of customersPOWERED BY CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021 OUTLOOK ON FUTURE LANDSCAPE
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
14%
31%
Of leaders predict that there will be sites that remain
permanently closed across their estate
Of leaders are undecided
For leaders who are
predicting closures, the
average proportion of
sites predicted to close is
36% in November (19% undecided)
36% in June (21% undecided)
32% in April (31% undecided) 9%
-3pp vs. November
CGA Business Confidence Q3 2020POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Along with fewer operators planning closures, there is also a greater proportion of
leaders planning openings in 2021, as the market is expected to churn
% of Business Leaders planning to open new sites in
Will there be any sites you keep permanently
the next 12 months?
closed?
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
58% 55%
45%
44% 41%
37% 38%36%
32% 31% 31%
26% 21%19%
14%
No Yes We are yet to
decide thisPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
New entrants to the market are anticipated by leaders, as entrepreneurs look to
invigorate the sector and potentially disrupt existing operators
Do you expect there to be new business entrants to the market
this year?
38%
31%
18%
13%
Yes, to higher levels than Yes, to similar levels to Yes, to lower levels than I do not expect new
in 2019 2019 2019 business entrants to the
market this yearPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Not all new entrants are predicted to be bricks and mortar entrants however, with over
half of leaders expecting new entrants into the “delivery-only” sector
In which sectors do you anticipate these opening?
Delivery-only 58%
Pub restaurants 51%
Street food & drink / 3rd space 51%
Pubs 48%
Casual dining 40%
Bars 38%
Fast casual 32%
Market halls 29%
Social gaming (e.g. crazy golf / darts) 29%
Coffee shop / QSR 28%
Hotels 25%
High end restaurants 24%
Holiday park 19%
Late night 5%POWERED BY CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021 CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE
POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
98%
Of Business Leaders predict that ‘a
However,
71%
pent-up demand for the hospitality
sector from consumers’ will have a
positive impact on their business in the
next 12 months
Expect that ‘fragile consumer
confidence’ will negatively impact their
businessPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
56% 49%
Of Business Leaders expect that
expect that ‘increased demand for
‘increased demand for high-end
value offerings’ will have a positive
offerings’ will have a positive impact
impact on their business
on their business
www.cga.co.uk [86]POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Leaders expect elements centred around quality to increase in importance for
consumers, while value elements have dropped in prioritisation
Which of the following do you predict as key drivers for consumers when they choose where
to eat and drink out, when permitted to do so in 2021? Vs. 2020
2020 2021
82%
74% 73% 72%
69%
62% 62% 63%
57%
50% 48%
47% 44%
Quality of Service Food quality Safety Value for Value for money Design/ambience
experience experiencePOWERED BY CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021 S TA F F & E N G AG E M E N T
POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Business leaders don’t anticipate a return to full workforce this year, but remain
hopeful that a large proportion will return by December
Compared to your February 2020 workforce, what do you expect your full workforce to be in:
July 2021 December 2021
79% 90%POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Over three quarters of Business Leaders expect they will continue to recruit new staff
in 2021, however a third anticipate it will be to a lesser extent than previous years
Do you anticipate recruiting new staff in 2021?
33%
26%
17%
14%
10%
Yes, to a greater extent Yes, to the same extent Yes, to a lesser extent No, we do not anticipate Currently uncertain
than previously as previously as previously recruiting new staffPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
71%
of Business Leaders say employee
While a further
engagement is a
key focus
29% say it is a
(-15pp vs. 2020)
moderate focusPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Leaders perceive communication, values and training as the greatest contributors to
positive engagement
Which of the following best contribute to employee engagement in your business?
Company values 72%
Internal communication 62%
Learning & development 45%
Career development pathways 43%
Pay 34%
Target-based bonus schemes 17%
Reward schemes 9%
Team activities / away-days 5%
Mentorship programmes 5%
Benefits and perk schemes 5%POWERED BY CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021 FUTURE OF TECH
POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
95% of Business Leaders agree that technology will be important in when it comes to
operating post-lockdown
How pivotal will the use of technology be in helping you
operate once lockdown eases?
5%
24% 33%
Fundamental
Important
Fairly important
Not at all important
39%POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Leaders feel that tech is best suited to support with operational challenges, with
managing the cost of labour, loyalty and team engagement the top priorities
Which of these topics/challenges are the highest priority that you will be deploying
technological solutions to overcome?
49%
46%
40%
34%
23%
15%
13%
8%
Managing the Driving loyalty Driving team Gathering Introducing Dealing with Managing the Improving
cost of labour engagement guest insight contactless allergens cost of sustainability
payment productsPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Despite frustrations remaining around technology, business leaders are less frustrated
with technology compared to previously, as 2020 had accelerated change in this area
What are your biggest frustrations with technology and data and its use in your
business?
2020
2021
62%
57%
52%
48%
38%
32% 32%
25% 23% 27%
24%
20% 20% 19% 20%
12%
Difficulties in Overload of data The speed of Impact on the Levels of training Too many options Understanding Inaccurate data
technology implementation of consumer journey required the data
integration new technologiesPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Pre-booking is viewed as a positive by two thirds of Business Leaders, and a third are
including it in their 2021 strategy
How do you an increased desire to pre-book/pre-
order will impact your business over the next
twelve months?
33%
9%
Positive
28%
No Impact
Of Business Leaders will take
62% Negative
this into account in their
strategy for this yearPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Given the pent-up demand for out of home eating and drinking out experiences, over
half the population predict they will revisit reopened venues in the first few weeks
51%
Of GB stated they would return to a venue
within the first few weeks of it reopeningPOWERED BY CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021 In summary… Mid-long term optimism is evident, particularly among larger operators, but the sector faces many challenges ahead • Sector confidence has bounced – but with the caveat of support absolutely needed to emerge healthily • Closures are to be expected, but less so than previously, while openings and new entrants will contribute to market churn • There is a perceived pent-up demand from consumers, which can be unlocked by building confidence • Technology has a role to play in the recovery and is gradually overcoming issues • Hospitality has a role to play in boosting economy, employment and society Leaders predict light on the horizon with 12 month view optimistic, but not out of the woods yet.
Methodology:
• OPMS – sample-based model of total GB on-trade drinks
• Reopening facts are taken from CGA Outlet Index / Market Recovery
Monitor
• Dates shown are week ending
• Consumer data from Nationally representative sample of 5,000 GB
consumers
www.cga.co.uk Source: CGA Managed EPOS Volume pool [100]
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