Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market - My Home Move

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Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market - My Home Move
Bricks and mortar in a
                  digital world: 15 years
                  of the property market

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Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market - My Home Move
My Home Move

    Contents                                               Introduction
    01   Introduction
                                                           July marks 15 years since My Home Move was
    02   Radical changes in the last 15 years
    08   Property transactions – forecast for the future
                                                           founded, and over this time the housing market
    10   Predictions from leading property experts         has changed significantly.
    13   My Home Move’s vision for the future
aphics
    14   Contact details
                                                           This report will provide                     In the first part of this report, we examine    We have also called on some of the
                                                                                                        the changes that have had the biggest           industry’s leaders to share their visions
                                                           an opportunity to offer a                    impact on consumers, from the rise of           for the market’s future. Their predictions
                                                           fresh perspective on these                   the property portals to the competition         cover a huge amount of ground, from the
                                                           rapid developments and                       between traditional and online estate           immediate effect of the Brexit referendum
                                                                                                        agents; and how technology is                   to the impact of automation and robots
                                                           to focus on our goals for                    overturning old assumptions about how           in the workforce to new technologies like
                                                           the future.                                  the business of bricks and mortar should        virtual reality and how Big Data could
                                                                                                        be conducted.                                   change everything.
                                                           Over the last 15 years we have seen a huge
                                                           amount of change for My Home Move,
                                                                                                        We then look towards the future. We have        And finally, we share our views on the
                                                           as well as for the property industry as
                                                                                                        commissioned Rob Thomas, former Bank            future of the property industry and how
                                                           a whole. External forces have shaped
                                                                                                        of England and Council of Mortgage              My Home Move will be playing its part by
                                                           the shared experiences of the sector,
                                                                                                        Lenders economist and currently Head of         continuing to revolutionise the customer
                                                           with the shock of the financial crisis
                                                                                                        Research at Instinctif Partners, to provide     experience of conveyancing.
                                                           and the subsequent policy response
                                                                                                        an econometric forecast for property
                                                           reconfiguring many aspects of the
                                                                                                        transactions in the UK, one of the most         Doug Crawford
                                                           housing and lending markets, turning
                                                                                                        important indicators of the overall health      Chief Executive Officer, My Home Move
                                                           established practice on its head. But
                                                                                                        of the property market. As we know,
                                                           some of the most radical changes in how
                                                                                                        property sales have still not returned
                                                           consumers buy or sell homes have also
                                                                                                        to their pre-crisis peak. The question
                                                           been driven by internal changes and are
                                                                                                        remains however, have we reached a new
                                                           the result of innovations by businesses
                                                                                                        normal? Or will the number of sales return
                                                           in the sector that are busy shaping the
                                                                                                        to and even exceed their previous highs.
                                                           future of the industry to their vision.

                                                                                                                          Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market   01
Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market - My Home Move
My Home Move                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        My Home Move

Radical changes
                                                                                                                                                           Property search                              Estate agents have had to adapt to                hit a new high in 2015. Intermediaries
                                                                                                                                                                                                        this disruption by evolving and defining          have benefitted from the stringent
                                                                                                                                                           Over the last 15 years a revolution in       their unique offering to consumers. For           affordability checks ushered in by the
                                                                                                                                                           marketing and technology has resulted        some, this has meant focusing on the              Mortgage Market Review, causing

in the last 15 years
                                                                                                                                                           in the growth of online property portals,    personal touch – the extensive network of         clients to seek reassurance and support
                                                                                                                                                           which allow consumers to research the        branches offering comfort to consumers,           from brokers, and the emergence of
                                                                                                                                                           market directly. Rightmove pioneered the     most visibly manifested by the long bars          challenger banks like Aldermore that rely
                                                                                                                                                           trend after launching in 2000 but now        of chilled water and pod style seating            on intermediaries to reach consumers.
                                                                                                                                                           faces competition from Zoopla (founded       at each Foxtons branch. But the more              Improved technologies have also allowed
                                                                                                                                                           in 2007) and OnTheMarket.com (January        radical change has been the growth of             intermediaries to source products based
                                                                                                                                                           2014), along with many other specialist      online estate agents like House Network,          on their clients’ needs, with solutions

When My Home Move was founded 15 years                                                                                                                     platforms. In March 2012, the Land
                                                                                                                                                           Registry released its Prices Paid Data
                                                                                                                                                           service – enabling consumers to see what
                                                                                                                                                                                                        which offer a fixed-fee service without a
                                                                                                                                                                                                        substantial branch network. In its rapid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          like Mortgage Brain making the process
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          especially efficient. Innovation continues:

ago, consumers’ experience of buying or
                                                                                                                                                                                                        progression from start-up in April 2014           in the last few months we have seen brand
                                                                                                                                                           properties actually sold for, compared       to initial public offering in December            new entrants into the market who are
                                                                                                                                                           to the estate agent’s asking price, for      2015, Purplebricks has been the latest to         set to challenge the traditional mortgage
selling a home was radically different to today                                                                                                            transactions dating back to 1995.            redefine how estate agents can operate
                                                                                                                                                                                                        with its hybrid model.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          broker with an online-only model.

in several key ways.                                                                                                                                       The competition has fuelled new portal
                                                                                                                                                           innovations, including layers of data
                                                                                                                                                           that can provide information on local
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mortgage finance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Annual share of new UK mortgages
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          sold via intermediaries (CML)

Searching for a property typically                     market meant the self-employed could               Housing market conditions were very              schools or commuter routes, through to       The internet has radically altered the way
involved visiting an area and taking a note            effectively choose how much they                   different. The economy was buoyant,              new delivery systems such as location-       that consumers can access mortgage

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                68%
of estate agents’ boards. Consumers                    wanted to borrow, without having                   the labour market was strong, and                based apps. These changes add up             finance. Internet aggregators such as

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        61%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         59%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            58%
might have had a vague idea of what to                 to prove their income.                             access to the housing market was in              to a radically new approach to house         Moneysupermarket.com (established

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               55%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  52%
                                                                                                                                                           hunting for consumers, who now arrive at     in 1999) and comparethemarket.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    48%
expect in terms of availability and pricing,                                                              reach for the majority, whether they

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             47%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           46%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      45%
but it would only be after registering with            The legal process of buying or selling a           were a first-time buyer or approaching           an estate agent equipped with far more       (established in 2006) allow consumers at
local agents and reading local newspaper               home would ordinarily involve the use of           retirement. Tony Blair’s Labour                  information than ever before.                a glance to compare a huge number of
adverts that they would start to form a                a local firm of solicitors – legal generalists     Government had been returned to power                                                         deals in a matter of seconds. However,
clear picture.                                         who were unlikely to be conveyancing               on a wave of consumer confidence.                                                             the increasing role played by technology
                                                       specialists. It would include multiple                                                                                                           in the market has not undermined
Accessing mortgage finance was                         face-to-face meetings and paperwork                Indeed, today’s consumer might not                                                            brokers’ share of mortgage lending.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2015
more straightforward. The unregulated                  circulated by post, causing delays in              recognise the property industry of 2001,                                                      Despite the internet making it easier for
mortgage industry provided easy access                 some instances. Legal fees were often              so what have been the biggest changes                                                         borrowers to compare lenders’ products
to finance for the vast majority. For                  charged at an hourly rate; while the idea          when it comes to buying a home?                                                               directly, brokers’ share of the market
example, the growing self-cert mortgage                of ‘no move, no fee’ was still a relativity
                                                       new concept.

             Average UK house prices (ONS)

                   National Land Information                         Rightmove becomes first property                  Deputy Prime Minister announces                  Housing Act 2004 introduces                  Right to Buy rules change to                              Comparethemarket.com
                   Service launches, helping to                      website to introduce charging for                 plans to build 200,000 additional                statutory mortgage regulation                require five years’ tenancy                               founded
                   speed up conveyancing via                         advertising of properties for sale                homes in the South East of                       and lays the groundwork for

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             £205,000
                   online searches                                                                                     England to tackle the shortage                   compulsory Home Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                          £191,000
                                                                                                                       of affordable homes                              Packs (HIPs)

                                                                                                                                                             £180,000
                                                                                                            £156,000
                                                          £128,000
  £113,000

                   July                                              October                                                                                                                                         May
                   My Home Move founded                              Land Registration Act 2002                                                                                                                      Labour party win the
                                                                     makes electronic conveyancing                                                                                                                   General Election
                                                                     possible

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2005
                                                                                                          2003

                                                                                                                                                           2004
                                                     2002
2001

02           Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market                                                                                                                                          Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market                               03
Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market - My Home Move
My Home Move                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           My Home Move

The financial crisis ushered in a new                  New home-owner loans for house                                                                                                                   There has been something of a                  The last 15 years has seen the rise and fall      Stamp Duty                                         Number of UK property transactions
era of ultra-low mortgage rates, thanks                purchase – £m (CML)                                                                                                                              reluctance to implement new, faster            of Home Information Packs (HIPs). An idea                                                            (HMRC)*
to a policy response that included rock-                                                                                                                                                                processes. For example, there has              with potential when they were included            Recent reforms to Stamp Duty have had a
bottom interest rates and schemes like                                                                                                                                                                  been very uneven adoption of personal          in the 2004 Housing Act. HIPs were                big impact on consumers’ wallets. After a
Funding for Lending. Average interest                                                                                                                                                                   searches, to overcome the issue of slow        then undermined by a series of changes            brief Stamp Duty holiday in the wake of the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1,710,210
rates on mortgages reached their lowest                                                                                                                                                                 local authority searches.                      meaning that they were ultimately seen            financial crisis, the slab system for Stamp
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Duty was finally reformed in November

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1,473,900
                                                                                                          156,800
recorded level in the fourth quarter of                                                                                                                                                                                                                as an extra cost and bureaucratic hurdle

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,444,260
                                                                                                                    154,800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2014, reducing the transaction cost of

                                                                                      137,600
2015 (2.71%), and with the base rate                                                                                                                                                                    The number of firms offering                   to overcome when they were finally

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1,200,720
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,140,480
                                                                            124,000

                                                                                                123,600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         buying a home for the majority of buyers.

                                                                                                                                                                                    120,500
                                                                                                                                                                                              119,300
                                                                  119,200
unlikely to rise anytime soon, there is                                                                                                                                                                 conveyancing is actually declining as          introduced in 2007 for larger homes.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           929,780
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         However, not everyone has been a winner.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 916,490
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             892,990
                                                        100,300
speculation about whether this will                                                                                                                                                                     older conveyancing solicitors retire.          They were immediately scrapped as one

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       876,560
                                                                                                                                                                           94,400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   792,970
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Buyers of homes over £937,500 have to

                                                                                                                                                                  81,900
decrease further.                                                                                                                                                                                       Higher PI premiums in the wake of the          of the first measures of the new coalition

                                                                                                                                                79,100
                                                                                                                              75,900

                                                                                                                                                         75,500
                                                                                                                                       69,400
                                                                                                                                                                                                        financial crisis pushed others out of the      government in May 2010.                           pay more, with the result of a noticeable
However, despite falling rates there                                                                                                                                                                    market. The number of firms offering                                                             slowdown in the premium London market.
are still concerns about affordability                                                                                                                                                                  conveyancing has reduced from almost           My Home Move has been at the forefront            Added to this, the recent introduction of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         the new 3% Stamp Duty surcharge for

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2005-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2006-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2007-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2008-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2009-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2011-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2012-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2013-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2014-15
for first-time buyers. This has led to                                                                                                                                                                  8,000 at its peak in 2010 to around 5,500      of many of the changes to conveyancing.
                                                        2001
                                                        2002
                                                        2003
                                                        2004
                                                        2005
                                                        2006
                                                        2007
                                                        2008
                                                        2009
                                                        2010
                                                        2011
                                                        2012
                                                        2013
                                                        2014
                                                        2015
the Government implementing several                                                                                                                                                                     in 2015. The chronic skills shortage in        It was the first business licensed to operate     second home-owners and buy-to-let
Help to Buy schemes, which help                                                                                                                                                                         conveyancing has occasionally threatened       in the UK as an alternative business              investors has led to fears of a slowdown in
prospective homeowners access                                                                                                                                                                           to act as a brake on the market, which is      structure, through its wholly-owned               areas with high concentrations of holiday
mortgage finance with deposits
                                                       Legal                                                                                                                                            why My Home Move is training hundreds                       MHM_Background_graphics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       subsidiary, Premier Property Lawyers              homes and a large private-rented sector.           * Financial year (April to April)

as low as 5%.
                                                       Over the past 15 years there have been
                                                                                                                                                                                                        of new conveyancers through its Learning
                                                                                                                                                                                                        and Development Academy.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    PMS 674
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       in 2011. It was the first conveyancing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       business to use online case-management
Recent years have seen the emergence                   some dramatic changes to the legal                                                                                                                                                              systems combined with scanning and
of new mortgage focused peer-to-peer                   process of buying or selling a home.                                                                                                             Despite the slow change in some parts of       attaching legal documents, setting a
lenders aiming to cut out the banks,                   However, many high street firms have                                                                                                             the legal market, there have been some         benchmark for incorporating innovative
including LendInvest (launched in May                  barely altered the way they operate,                                                                                                             radical introductions which have paved the     technology into the everyday business
2013) and Landbay (founded in August                   and their uptake of new technologies                                                                                                             way for companies like My Home Move to         of conveyancing, evidenced with the
that year). While the new peer-to-peer                 has been limited to email and electronic                                                                                                         disrupt the traditional way of doing things.   radically new version of its eWay service
lenders are currently focused on specific              document transfer.                                                                                                                               The Land Registration Act of 2002 made         that was launched in 2015.
product areas such as buy-to-let and                                                                                                                                                                    electronic conveyancing possible, while
bridging finance, their impact could,                                                                                                                                                                   the Legal Services Act passed in 2007
in the future, extend to mortgages for                                                                                                                                                                  meant that any business with a licence
owner occupiers.                                                                                                                                                                                        could provide legal services, heralding
                                                                                                                                                                                                        the age of “Tesco law”.

             Average UK house prices (ONS)

                   June                                                                  January                                                                                                                     Interest rates held at 0.5% for                 March                                            Legal Services Act 2007 comes                                     Government eases planning
                   First iPhone released                                                 Zoopla website launched                                                                                                     the first time                                  Stamp Duty holiday for first-time                into force on 6th October 2011                                    restrictions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     buyers buying up to £250,000                     and the Alternative Business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     introduced (ended March 2012)                    Structure (ABS) is ‘born’
                   August
                   Home Information Packs

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         £251,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Premier Property Lawyers

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                £246,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           £245,000
                   become compulsory for larger
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      becomes first law firm ABS (wholly-
                   homes                                                                 Summer
                                                            £228,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                          £226,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      owned subsidiary of My Home Move)
  £223,000

                                                                                         Property market crashed –
                   September                                                             number of transactions halves                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  July
                   Northern Rock experiences first                                                                                                                                                                                                                   May                                                                                                                The Bank of England and Treasury
                   bank run in 150 years, as credit                                                                                                                                                                                                                  A coalition Government is formed                                                                                   launch the Funding for Lending
                                                                                         September
                   crunch looms                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      at the General Election                                                                                            scheme
                                                                                         Lehman Brothers collapsed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      My Home Move launches eWay –
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Requirement to provide a Home                    the first fully integrated online
                   October                                                               October
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2009
                                                      2008
2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Information Pack is scrapped                     conveyancing case management
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010
                   Legal Services Act receives

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2012
                                                                                         First Android smartphone                                                                                                                                                    but Energy Performance                           service for clients

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2011
                   Royal Assent, paving the way                                          launched – HTC Dream                                                                                                                                                        Certificates (EPC) are still
                   for “Tesco law” services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     necessary

                   November                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          First iPad launched
                   Housing market peaks

04           Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market                                                               05
Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market - My Home Move
My Home Move                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                My Home Move

Market conditions                                      To help the house builders, planning                                                                                                                   Growth in buy-to-let                             The Conservative victory in the 2015                                                                                                                 Conclusion: Where are
                                                       permission has been eased. Building                                                                                                                                                                     General Election led to a policy shift in
The financial crisis that started with the             volumes are improving and, as part of                                                                                                                  In 2001, few would have predicted the            favour of owner-occupancy. The question                                                                                                              we now?
run on Northern Rock in September                      the 2015 Autumn Statement, George                                                                                                                      enormous growth of the buy-to-let market         for the future is whether the new Stamp                                                                                                              Today’s consumers have a radically
2007 has fundamentally shaken up the                   Osborne pledged to create 400,000                                                                                                                      and private rental sector. Buy-to-let was        Duty surcharge and changes to tax relief                                                                                                             different experience of buying or selling a
UK property market and its influence is                new homes by 2020 and doubled the                                                                                                                      a relatively new phenomenon at the start         will reverse the growth in the private                                                                                                               home. They can do most of their research
still felt in today’s market conditions. The           housing budget to £2bn. However, it is                                                                                                                 of the millennium, with lending activity         rented sector, increasing instead the                                                                                                                online and use a property portal to check
crunch in mortgage availability was one of             no secret that there is still some way to                                                                                                              kicking off in the mid-1990s. In 2001,           number of first-time buyers entering                                                                                                                 prices. They can find out what mortgage
the biggest short-term impacts as house                go to overcome the UK’s housing crisis,                                                                                                                £6.9bn of gross advances were lent to            the property market.                                                                                                                                 rate they are likely to get via comparison
prices briefly plummeted, but lending has              with leading industry experts recently                                                                                                                 buy-to-let investors, and by 2007 this                                                                                                                                                                sites, although the increase in regulation
recovered rapidly, as have house prices.                                                                                                                                                                      had expanded to £45.7bn. While the
Unlike previous downturns, repossessions
                                                       expressing concern about the country’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                              financial crisis put the brakes on lending,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               UK changes in tenure – percentage                                                                                                                    has made it harder for some – particularly      Consumers have benefited
                                                       housing situation.                                                                                                                                                                                      (CML)                                                                                                                                                the self-employed and older borrowers –
by lenders remained muted. The greatest                                                                                                                                                                       the market rebounded quickly to reach                                                                                                                                                                 to find suitable mortgages, making them
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    from more options in how
impact has arguably resulted from the fall             UK housebuilding –                                                                                                                                     £37.9bn of gross advances in 2015 for                                                                                                                                                                 more likely to employ a broker to help          they buy or sell, including
in house building, which has combined                                                                                                                                                                         buy-to-let mortgages.
                                                       all permanent dwellings*                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     them find the right product.                    the rise of new pricing

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              14 9 10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    69 12 8 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      17 10 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                18 10 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          19 10 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             69 10 7 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          69 11 8 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       69 11 8 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    16 9 9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 68 13 8 10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             16 9 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                69 10 6 14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        67 14 9 9
with a growing population to create a
housing crisis with nowhere near enough                                                                                                                                                                       The private rented sector has expanded                                                                                                                                                                Consumers have benefited from more
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    models and a technology-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    led approach.
                                                                                                          233,880

supply to meet growing demand.                                                                                                                                                                                significantly along with the growth of
                                                                                                225,050

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    options in how they buy or sell, including
                                                                                                                    222,630
                                                                                                                              218,840

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              68
                                                                                      213,190

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    66
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             66
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      65
                                                                                                                                                                                                              buy-to-let mortgages. In 2001, owner-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          63
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the rise of new pricing models and a
                                                                            197,110
                                                                  194,140

The sweeping changes brought in by                                                                                                                                                                            occupied homes made up 69% of
                                                        183,480

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    technology-led approach. Like 2001,

                                                                                                                                                                                                    166,900
                                                                                                                                                                                          160,800
policymakers have been as important                                                                                                                         138,830                                           total housing stock in the UK, and this                                                                                                                                                               house prices are rising, but unlike 15
in shaping today’s house market as the                                                                                                                                136,230                                 had fallen to 63% in 2013. At the same                                                                                                                                                                years ago access to the housing market is
                                                                                                                                                                                127,050
                                                                                                                                                  124,470
                                                                                                                                        118,580

crisis was. The Help to Buy schemes, first                                                                                                                                                                    time, the private rented sector nearly                                                                                                                                                                uneven with first-time buyers in particular
announced in the 2013 Budget, bolstered                                                                                                                                                                       doubled from 10% of housing stock to                                                                                                                                                                  finding it hard to raise the deposit needed

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2013
demand and continued to drive house                                                                                                                                                                           19% over the same period. There has                                                                                                                                                                   to move onto the property ladder.
prices upwards. The seven years that                                                                                                                                                                          been significant debate about the role                                 MHM_Background_graphics
have passed since the Bank of England
lowered interest rates to historic lows of
                                                                                                                                                                                                              that buy-to-let has played in preventing
                                                                                                                                                                                                              aspiring first-time buyers from accessing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Owner-occupied
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     PMS 339      Research from My Home Move found
                                                        2000-01
                                                        2001-02
                                                        2002-03
                                                        2003-04
                                                        2004-05
                                                        2005-06
                                                        2006-07
                                                        2007-08
                                                        2008-09
                                                        2009-10
                                                        2010-11
                                                        2011-12
                                                        2012-13
                                                        2013-14
                                                        2014-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Private rented                                                                                                                                that one in twenty home buyers used a
0.5% have been a gift to homeowners,                                                                                                                                                                          the market.                                             Housing association rented                                                                                                                    gifted deposit in 2015 – illustrating many
enabling them to pay back their debt                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Public rented                                                                                                                                 people’s reliance on friends and family.
cheaply and this has laid the groundwork               * Financial year (April to April)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            In recent years there has been a conscious
for a gap between the housing haves and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             effort on the part of policymakers to assist
have-nots.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          aspiring homeowners, with schemes like
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Help to Buy.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    So what do the next 15 years have
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    in store?

             Average UK house prices (ONS)

                   March                                                                 April                                                                                                                             My Home Move unveils its                                                    March
                   George Osborne announces                                              Mortgage Market Review (MMR)                                                                                                      enhanced eWay service to                                                    Lifetime ISA launched to help
                   the launch of the Help to Buy                                         toughens lending criteria                                                                                                         revolutionise the customer                                                  people save for a deposit or
                                                                                                                                                                                                                £277,000

                   Schemes                                                                                                                                                                                                 experience of conveyancing                                                  for retirement
                                                            £267,000
  £251,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May                                                                         Mortgage Credit Directive
                                                                                         November                                                                                                                                                                                                      introduced
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Conservative party wins a
                                                                                         George Osborne announces                                                                                                          majority at the General Election
                   July                                                                  the reform of the Stamp Duty                                                                                                                                                                                  1 April
                   Mark Carney is appointed                                              system to replace the slab system                                                                                                 November                                                                    Additional 3% Stamp Duty Land
                   Governor of the Bank of England
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Autumn Statement sees a host                                                Tax for additional home owners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           of policy announcements in favour                                           comes into force
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           of home ownership, including
2013

                                                     2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3% Stamp Duty surcharge for                                                 23 June
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           additional properties                                                       Brexit referendum to take place

06           Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Bricks and mortar in a digital world: 15 years of the property market   07
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Property transactions –
                                                                                                                                             This projected fall continues the trend that             Of course, a wide range of other factors            However, when the baby boomers reach
                                                                                                                                             has been evident since 2009 when the                     will affect housing turnover levels over            their seventies and eighties and large
                                                                                                                                             average first-time buyer deposit reached                 the next 5 years, including the changes             houses become a burden there is likely
                                                                                                                                             25%. The decline we have already seen                    to tax and mortgage regulation that have            to be a surge in downsizing. Although

forecast for the future
                                                                                                                                             reflects the gradual improvement in the                  already been implemented. These key                 this could be as much as 20 or 30 years
                                                                                                                                             health of the banking system and in                      additional influences on the market are:            in the future, when it comes it is likely
                                                                                                                                             particular the increased availability and                                                                    to stimulate higher transaction levels
                                                                                                                                             more competitive pricing of higher LTV                   Stamp Duty – the abolition of the slab              across the market and may also aid
                                                                                                                                             loans since 2009. I expect this trend                    system can be expected to underpin                  housing affordability.
                                                                                                                                             towards cheaper and more readily                         transaction levels in the mass market
                                                                                                                                             available high LTV loans to continue,                    but the subsequent announcement that                Perhaps the greatest unknown when

In this section Rob Thomas, former Bank of                                                                                                   allowing more first-time buyers with
                                                                                                                                             modest deposits to buy, which in turn will
                                                                                                                                                                                                      buy-to-let and second homes will face a
                                                                                                                                                                                                      surcharge of an additional 3% will offset
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          estimating future rates of housing turnover
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          is how much pent-up demand exists

England and Council of Mortgage Lenders
                                                                                                                                             help to drive more transactions through                  much or even all of this effect.                    from frustrated first-time buyers and
                                                                                                                                             the rest of the housing market.                                                                              how quickly this pent-up demand will be
                                                                                                                                                                                                      The MMR rules, which require lenders                released. I estimate that since the start of
economist, provides an econometric forecast of                                                                                               If first-time buyer deposits                             to verify borrower income in all cases and
                                                                                                                                                                                                      impose tighter affordability checks, make
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the financial crisis in 2007 there have been
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2.2 million fewer first-time buyers than
                                                                                                                                             do not recover, property
property transaction volumes, one of the most                                                                                                transactions are unlikely
                                                                                                                                                                                                      it harder for people to obtain mortgage
                                                                                                                                                                                                      finance and is therefore likely to depress
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          would be expected given demographic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          trends. A large part of this shortfall reflects

important measures of the overall health of the                                                                                              to rise                                                  transaction levels. However, as the MMR             the tightened lending criteria that lenders
                                                                                                                                                                                                      has bedded down, lenders have been                  imposed over this period which included
                                                                                                                                             If lending conditions do not improve                     better able to understand the boundaries            larger minimum deposits.
UK’s housing market.                                                                                                                         and first-time buyer average % deposits
                                                                                                                                             remains at their current level of 17.1%,
                                                                                                                                                                                                      that it imposes, allowing them to offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                      more flexibility, so the impact of MMR may          It is hard to know how many of these
                                                                                                                                             the increase in transactions is likely to                not be as severe as lenders initially feared.       households will remain permanently in
To provide a forecast of UK property           The forecast predicts that by 2020, there       Falling average first-time                    be far more muted – see the pink line                                                                        rented accommodation but clearly many
transactions up to 2020, I have used           will be 1.5 million transactions in the                                                       in the chart below. This shows just how                  Demographics play an important, though              still aspire to own their own home. As the
econometric modelling techniques.              housing market, 21% more than in 2015.          buyer deposits expected                       crucial first-time buyers are for wider                  somewhat hidden, role in determining                financial system has improved, mortgage
The model draws on the past relationship                                                       to drive higher transactions                  housing market activity.                                 transaction levels because the propensity           lenders have eased their lending criteria
between property transactions and three        Forecast for UK housing turnover                                                                                                                       for homeowners to move is closely linked            and many have moved back into the
                                                                                               The OBR forecasts that unemployment
variables that have, in the past, had the                UK housing       Annual   Annual %                                                  Two scenarios for housing                                to age. Younger homeowners tend to                  higher LTV lending that they evacuated
                                                                                               will fall slightly to 5.0% this year before
greatest impact on turnover: average                       turnover     increase    increase                                                 transactions                                             move more frequently than older ones.               during the crisis. This has provided an
                                                                                               rising gently to 5.3% by 2020. It further
mortgage rates; unemployment;                  2014a      1,223,280    155,670       14.6%                                                                                                            It is quite usual for people to buy a home          opportunity for more young people to
                                                                                               assumes that the Bank Rate will fall to
and the average first-time buyer               2015a       1,227,770     4,490        0.4%                                                                                               1,486,889    in their late forties or early fifties and remain   buy their first home, as have various
                                                                                               0.4% this year before gradually rising
percentage deposit.                            2016f      1,308,900     81,130        6.6%                                                                                                            there until they downsize in their seventies        government backed schemes supporting
                                                                                               from early 2018 and reaching 1.0% by
                                               2017f      1,362,298     53,399        4.1%     the end of 2020. As you would expect,                                                                  or eighties. As the baby boomer generation          high LTV lending such as Help to Buy
I have taken Office for Budget                 2018f       1,412,632    50,334        3.7%                                                                                                            are now in their fifties, the large segment         which has helped 150,000 buyers since
                                                                                               these modest changes have only a
Responsibility (OBR) projections for                                                                                                                                                                  of the housing market that they own could           its launch in 2013.
                                               2019f      1,466,654     54,022        3.8%     limited impact on projected transaction
unemployment and the Bank of England                                                                                                                                                                  be mostly locked away for two decades
                                               2020f      1,486,889     20,234        1.4%     levels but I have assumed that the
Bank Rate, assumed that mortgage                                                                                                                                                         1,293,374    or more, depressing transaction levels.             But despite a sharp recovery in first-time
                                               2015-                                           average first-time buyer percentage
rates remain at their current margin over                                                                                                                                                                                                                 buyer numbers since 2008, the pent-up
                                               2020                     259,119      21.1%     deposit falls from 17.1% currently to
Bank Rate and used my own forecast for                                                                                                       1,223,280                                                                                                    demand of frustrated potential first-time
                                               a – actual
                                                                                               10% by late 2019 – back to the level
the evolution of average first-time buyer                                                                                                                                                                                                                 buyers continues to grow. If that pent-
                                               f – forecast
                                                                                               immediately prior to the financial crisis.
percentage deposits.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      up demand starts to release it could be

                                                                                                                                              2014

                                                                                                                                                        2015

                                                                                                                                                                2016

                                                                                                                                                                       2017

                                                                                                                                                                               2018

                                                                                                                                                                                        2019

                                                                                                                                                                                               2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the single most important factor raising
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          housing transactions levels, pushing them
                                                                                                                                                     Base forecast (inc. 10% deposit)                                                                     beyond that outlined in my base forecast.
                                                                                                                                                     Unchanged FTB% deposit

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Predictions from leading
property experts

Peter Williams                                  Michael Bruce                                                                                  James Knightley                                David Livesey
Executive Director, IMLA                        Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Purplebricks                                              Senior Global Economist, ING                   Group Chief Executive, Connells

In the lending market, we are going             The traditional estate agent model will          User friendly interfaces that offer simple,   In the short term, the EU referendum           The next 15 years will inevitably see the
through a very interesting time where all       come under considerable further strain           supportive advice with a cost-effective       will certainly shake things up for the         property market slip on an unexpected
the major lenders are looking at massive        in the near future. Inevitably, its share        execution of services will supersede the      housing market depending on the                banana skin such as terrorism, political
technological changes in the way they           of the £4bn estate agent market will             traditional model. Technology doesn’t         outcome. If we stay, the UK will remain        uncertainty or global macro issues.
interact with customers. If you look at         diminish due to the competitive pricing          get ill, it doesn’t take a holiday, and it    a key destination for foreign investment       However, the shortage of homes is
how consumers now search for travel             of businesses that offer an integrated           doesn’t go home at 6pm. That is not           and London property will continue to be        the biggest problem for the industry.
and car insurance, we can expect to             online and face-to-face service. People          to say everyone will move to “AI”, but        seen as a store for wealth. On the other       A leading factor behind the chronic
experience a similar shift in the mortgage      in the UK have already had the ‘lightbulb’       consumers will increasingly prefer to         hand, Brexit could lead to the UK being        shortage of stock for sale is the fact that
market as it follows this lead. There is        moment, they have realised that they             have access to a high quality online and      less attractive for foreign investment due     about a fifth of UK properties are owned
great potential for more of our mortgage        can get excellent service for a greatly          personal “hybrid” service, 24/7. Typically,   to the perception of it being a less open      by over-65s without a mortgage and this
sales processes to be web-based,                reduced fee through new challenger               people will always gravitate towards          economy, the risk that it can’t trade freely   group of people rarely move due to a lack
providing a major shift in the way the          models introduced to the marketplace.            human advice, expertise and local             with the EU and the prospect that EU           of suitable alternatives. Government, local
market operates.                                Tomorrow’s consumer will want a quick,           knowledge through what is arguably the        workers might have to leave to obtain          planning authorities and housebuilders
                                                efficient and transparent service at the         most important transaction they make.         work, freeing up rental properties and         need to work together to both increase
However, a market with lots of volatility –     kind of low cost that can only be provided       However, unfortunately, the perception        houses on the marketplace.                     the number of annual New Build starts,
housing booms and busts – makes it              by combining on-hand local expertise             of ‘estate agents’ as a whole has been                                                       and also build more retirement focused
harder to invest in new technology and          with a strong technology platform,               slowly eroding as bricks and mortar           In the long-term, the strength of the          homes which will incentivise some of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             “
we are now overdue another bust. You            cutting out the large expense associated         businesses have driven fees skyward           UK’s property market is underpinned            these older homeowners to downsize,
can, however, argue that there are more         high street offices. That means offering         year-on-year and high street chains           by the country’s strong birth rate, longer     freeing up their larger property to the
mechanisms now in place to limit the            an always-on, connected service that             offer an opaque and removed service.          life expectancy and higher immigration         family market.
damage it might do. Yet with interest           empowers customers to be involved                Empowering estate agents through              rates. The EU estimates that the UK will                                                              The advent of the
rises to come and more regulatory and           when they want to be, for example                the hybrid model is absolutely vital in       be the most populous nation in the EU          The advent of the internet has changed          internet has changed
policy interventions from the government,       communicating and even negotiating               increasing the accessibility and quality of   in the next 25 years with a population         the face of the property market with nine
further uncertainty is looming for the          directly with buyers, but with the flexibility   customer service UK-wide.                     of over 80million by 2050 and these            out of ten property searches now starting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              the face of the property
housing market. Nonetheless, we are             to tap into human expertise as and when                                                        demographic factors will put further           on the internet. This sets the tone for a       market with nine out of ten
working towards evermore streamlined            they need it.                                                                                  pressure on demand for properties. One         big battle for traditional estate agents to     property searches now
processes through the emergence of new                                                                                                         question mark will be the impact of more       convince the consumer that by going
technologies and ‘big data’ which will                                                                                                         automation – will greater use of robots        down the traditional path they will get
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              starting on the internet.”
help speed up buying and selling a home                                                                                                        lead to a shake-up of the workforce and        a better deal as by advertising on the
and hopefully produce better outcomes                                                                                                          a decline in wages with a knock-on effect      internet you simply won’t get the same          David Livesey
for the consumer.                                                                                                                              on house prices?                               price that an estate agent will.                Group Chief Executive, Connells

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Predictions from leading                                                                                                                    My Home Move’s
property experts continued                                                                                                                  vision for the future
                                                                                                                                            My Home Move has seen a
                                                                                                                                            huge amount of change since
                                                                                                                                            it was founded 15 years ago.
Robert Sinclair                                                                               Miles Shipside
Chief Executive, Association of Mortgage Intermediaries                                       Commercial Director, Rightmove                The pace of change has                        The forecast for property transactions         conveyancer to their surveyor. Since
                                                                                                                                                                                          earlier in this report shows that the          launching eWay we have observed
We are shifting towards a society where         Another area where we might see               As the process of buying a home is
                                                                                                                                            accelerated. Consumers                        number of home purchases could see             that the majority of consumers log in
everything is rented and there is a             change in the next fifteen years is           constantly evolving alongside changing        are more knowledgeable                        a dramatic improvement if access to            between 19.30 and 21.30, illustrating
changing perception of how people want          the intermediary market. The current          consumer habits, the past 15 years            and better researched                         home ownership for first-time buyers is        how service needs to be 24/7. They no
to live their lives. This is as true in music   model could easily be shaken up by an         have seen two clear models emerge for                                                       nurtured. This requires a coordinated          longer understand why there shouldn’t
and movies, where streaming services            evolution in peer-to-peer lending through     searching for a home – online and via
                                                                                                                                            than ever before. They                        effort from across the industry: from          be anything other than quick, efficient
are becoming the norm, as the property          the introduction of something simple          human interaction. Since people have          share their knowledge and                     house builders to ensure the supply is         communication between everyone
market where we have seen a shift to            like a marketplace allowing consumers         more and more access to information on        experiences with each                         there; from lenders to provide the high        involved in making sure a sale goes
renting. One school of thought suggests         searching for a mortgage to input their       a 24/7 basis, it is no longer acceptable                                                    loan-to-value lending that first-time          through. That means the ones that
the renting culture is forced upon people       personal circumstances into the system,       to provide a mediocre service when
                                                                                                                                            other on social media                         buyers depend on; and from those of us         succeed in our sector will be the ones
due to economics. However I believe that        with lenders able to offer their best deals   supporting home movers - you have to          and review sites. They no                     who support first-time buyers with their       that work best with each other and move
part of the shift to renting is a result of     to the consumer directly.                     be exceptional whether you are online or      longer rely on traditional                    purchases to ensure that buying a home         with the times.
consumers searching for flexibility instead                                                   face-to-face.                                                                               is as easy as it can be.
of being tied down with home ownership.
                                                                                                                                            sources of wisdom about                                                                      The past 15 years have been challenging
                                                                                                                                            which services to use.

                                                “
                                                                                              The human element will always exist                                                         It couldn’t be clearer how important           and exciting in equal parts for the
We might reach the stage in the near                                                          when buying a home as it is one of the        They are impatient and                        first-time buyers are in ensuring a healthy    residential property market, and there are
future where property is no longer as                                                         biggest financial commitments people                                                        future for the property market as a whole.     reasons for both optimism and caution
clear cut as renting or buying and new                 Since people have                      make in their lifetimes. However, we
                                                                                                                                            want a service that’s                                                                        looking forwards.
models become widespread. Similar               more and more access                          are likely to see a greater shift towards     available to them when                        It is often said that purchasing a home is
to leasing a car, we could see people
                                                to information on a 24/7                      virtual viewing, including virtual reality,   they want it and on their                     one of the biggest financial commitments       Technology will continue to shape the
entering three or five year leases on                                                         as consumers continue to research the                                                       made by a consumer and this is truer           market, and we have enjoyed driving
a property and then hand it back to             basis, it is no longer                        market from the comfort of their home.
                                                                                                                                            own terms.                                    today than ever before as house prices         change with our ground-breaking
the owner to refurbish and pass on              acceptable to provide a                                                                     This isn’t going to change.                   continue to rise. All the more reason,         eWay service. My Home Move has set
to the next person. Alternatively, you                                                        The biggest threat in today’s housing                                                       then, for consumers to compare the             out to revolutionise the conveyancing
might pay some capital upfront, like the
                                                mediocre service when                         market is affordability and being able        This is the new reality.                      service they get from suppliers when           process, and the only way that this can
government’s Rent to Buy scheme for             supporting home movers.”                      to provide an affordable living space         This is the future.                           buying or selling a home to the best           be achieved is through providing the
new build properties and, depending                                                           with the degree of privacy, security and                                                    available anywhere, whether it is online       very highest levels of customer service
                                                                                                                                            While it’s hard to know with certainty        banking or internet shopping.                  coupled with unrivalled expertise.
on the contractual agreement, you can           Miles Shipside                                convenience that consumers want.
                                                                                                                                            where the market is going in this
purchase the home in the future with a          Commercial Director, Rightmove                There is a big opportunity to solve this
                                                                                                                                            business of ours, one thing is for sure, it   Consumer behaviour is changing                 At My Home Move, we are very excited
tailored mortgage plan.                                                                       with technology, design and innovation.
                                                                                                                                            has been getting harder, not easier, for      radically with the digital age. Consumers      about playing our part in shaping the
                                                                                              The last 15 years has seen the property
                                                                                                                                            most people to buy a home.                    want – and deserve – a seamless service        next 15 years for the property market.
                                                                                              industry start to collect huge amounts
                                                                                              of data about what consumers want. In                                                       from all the businesses they engage with,
                                                                                              the future, this information can be used                                                    from the portals to the agents, from           Doug Crawford
                                                                                              by housebuilders and local authorities to                                                   their broker to their lender, from their       Chief Executive Officer, My Home Move
                                                                                              improve their ability to provide the right
                                                                                              housing in the right places.

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