Cambiamenti Climatici e impatti sul ciclo idrologico: proposta per una catena modellistica del Bacino del Po - Autorità ...
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Cambiamenti Climatici e impatti sul ciclo idrologico:
proposta per una catena modellistica del Bacino del Po
Silvio Gualdi, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Forum di informazione pubblica sul Piano di Bilancio Idrico
Parma 12 luglio 2012
CMCC
• An Italian research center on climate science and policy
• A network of Italian public and private research institutions
• Funded by the Italian Ministries MIUR, MATTM and MEF
• Within the framework of the National Research Plan
Partners:
• INGV - National Institute on Geophisics and Vulcanology
• UNISA - University of Salento
• UNISANNIO - University of Sannio
• CIRA - Italian Center for Spatial Research
• FEEM - Enrico Mattei ENI Foundation
1 • UV - University “Ca Foscari” of Venice
The CMCC Activities
Numerical Climate Research Software
Methods Development
Numerical
Impacts: Simulations
Agricultural Impacts:
Energy and
Economy
Impacts:
Forests
Impacts:
Impacts: Water
(Mediterranean)
Sea Impacts: Impacts:
The Coastal Areas …
2
The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration)
Atmosphere
ECHAM5
Land (from 200-to-80 km)
(Roeckner et al 1996, 2003)
Surface
SILVA
(Alessandri 2006)
Coupler
OASIS3
(Valcke et al, 2000)
Sea Ice
LIM (ORCA2)
(Timmerman et al, 2005)
Global Med Sea
Marine Bio- NEMO-MFS
Geochemistry
Ocean (~6.7 km)
Oddo et al. (2009)
OPA 8.2 (ORCA2)
PELAGOS (Madec et al, 1998)
Vichi et al. 2007
Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment
Future Climate Change Projections
Deviation of the global mean
surface temperature
(wrt 1840-70 mean)
T2m trend 2001-2050 DJF Prec trend 2001-2050 DJF
T2m trend 2001-2050 JJA Prec trend 2001-2050 JJA T2m and
Precipitation
(mm/day)/decade
projected trends
10*(°C/decade)
Short Term Projections (Decadal Predictions)
30-year hindcast/forecast simulations grouped into
3-members ensembles, for different start dates
• CMCC CGCM (ECHAM5+OPA/LIM)
• CMIP5 GHG & aerosol RF
• RCP4.5 scenario (2005 onward)
• solar variability
• ocean init.: from ODA products
RCP4.5
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2005 2010 2015 2020 … 2030
1960 2000 2035
Short Term Projections (Decadal Predictions)
Short-term fluctuations due to both natural
variability and anthropogenic radiative forcing
North Atlantic annual-mean SST
Observ
Time series of SSTA in the North
Atlantic [0-60N;50W-10W]
Hindcast for 5-prediction years and
Observations (5-year running mean)
Some predictive skill is evident when 5-yrs slices out of each hindcast simulation are retainedCMIP5 simulations
# Simulation CMCC-CESM CMCC-CMS CMCC-CM
Earth sys-model stratosphere
3.1 Pre-industrial control X X X
3.2 Historical (1850-2005) X X X
3.3 AMIP (1978-2008) X X
4.1 RCP4.5 (2006-2100) X
4.2 RCP8.5 (2006-2100) X X X
6.1 Idealized + 1% CO2/yr X X
1.2 Decadal predictions (1960-2035) X X
Preindustrial (pre-1850) : 300 years
Historical (1850-2005): 156 years
21st Century scenario RCP4.5: 96 years
21st Century scenario RCP8.5: 96 years
1%/year CO2 increase (up to 4xCO2): 140 yearsDownscaling
LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM
• Horizontal resolution: 14 km
• Vertical resolution: 40 levels
From Global • Non-hydorstatic
To LocalProiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico: scala regionale
Proiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico nel Mediterraneo
Evolution of the T2m over the Mediterranean region
(Gualdi et al., 2011)Proiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico: scala regionale
Proiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico nel Mediterraneo
T2m and Precipitation projected trends
T2m trend 2001-2050 DJF Precip trend 2001-2050 DJF
T2m trend 2001-2050 JJA Precip trend 2001-2050 JJA
(mm/day)/decade
10*(°C/decade)
(Gualdi et al., 2011)Downscaling
LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM
• Horizontal resolution: 8 km
• Vertical resolution: 40 levels
From Global • Non-hydorstatic
Orography
To LocalProiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico: zoom sull’Italia
Cambiamento medio della Temperatura alla superficie simulato dai
modelli PRUDENCE per l’inverno e l’estate, 2071-2100 rispetto a
1961- 1990, scenario A2
T2m change A2 JJA Italy: ~ +5°°C T2m change A2 DJF Italy: ~ +3°°C
~ +5°C ~ +3°C
~ +5°C ~ +3°C
~ +4°C ~ +3°C
°C
6E 8E 10E 12E 14E 16E 18E 20E 6E 8E 10E 12E 14E 16E 18E 20E
Coppola and Giorgi (2009)Proiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico: zoom sull’Italia
Cambiamento medio di Precipitazione simulato dai modelli PRUDENCE
per l’inverno e l’estate, 2071-2100 rispetto a 1961-1990, scenario A2
Precip change A2 JJA Italy: ~ -35% Precip change A2 DJF Italy: ~ -1%
~ -30% ~ +17%
~ -40% ~ 0%
~ -35% ~ -18%
%
6E 8E 10E 12E 14E 16E 18E 20E 6E 8E 10E 12E 14E 16E 18E 20E
Coppola and Giorgi (2009)Proiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico: zoom sull’Italia
Distribuzone delle anomalie stagionali di Temperatura (rispetto alla
media 1961-1990) calcolate dalle simulazioni di PRUDENCE per il 1961-
1990 (istogrammi neri) e il 2071-2100, scenario A2 (istogrammi rossi)
Nord Italia Centro Italia Sud Italia
numero di eventi
DJF
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 °C -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 °C -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 °C
Nord Italia Centro Italia Sud Italia
Coppola and Giorgi (2009)
numero di eventi
JJA
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 °C -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 °C -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 °CProiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico: zoom sull’Italia
Distribuzone delle anomalie stagionali di Precipitazione (rispetto alla
media 1961-1990) calcolate dalle simulazioni di PRUDENCE per il 1961-
1990 (istogrammi neri) e il 2071-2100, scenario A2 (istogrammi rossi)
Nord Italia Centro Italia Sud Italia
numero di eventi
DJF
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 % -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 % -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 %
Nord Italia Centro Italia Sud Italia
Coppola and Giorgi (2009)
numero di eventi
JJA
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 % -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 % -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 %Downscaling
LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM
• Horizontal resolution: ~3 km
• Vertical resolution: 40 levels
From Global • Non-hydorstatic
To Local
1
6Changes in Evaporation, T2m and Precipitation seasonal
means averaged over the North-East Italy plains (11-13.5ºE; 45-
46.5ºN)
A1B 2071-2100 seasonal means - 1971-2000 seasonal meansCOME RENDERE UTILIZZABILI LE INFORMAZIONI PRODOTTE DALLA SCIENZA DEL CLIMA?
Colmare le lacune e rimuovere le
barriere che ostacolano l’utilizzo
dei dati e delle informazioni sul
clima prodotti dalla comunità
scientifica
• Decisori Politici ed Economici
Utilizzatori e • Amministratori
portatori di • Opinione pubblica
• Altre Comunità Scientifiche
interesse • Mondo della FormazioneSERC - Climate Service
Main objectives:
• Production of climate predictions and climate change projections at different
scales (global and regional, seasonal-to-multi annual, short-term long-term
scenarios).
• Development of new information systems and diagnostic tools for the
characterization of the climate variability and change signals and their impacts to
support research and dissemination.
• Provide scientific support and understandable and relevant climate-related
information for the recent past, present and future to a wide range of users and
stakeholders.
• Establish and sustain a discussion and interaction platform with stakeholders
1
• Develop tailored sectorial climate products, regularly maintained and updated
9SERC - Climate Service
The CMCC models coupling
Multi-model Downscaling Impacts
climate data (SD/DD) assessment
Agriculture
Forests and Fires
Economic
Hydrologic risks impact
Coastal erosion
…
Global Climate Downscaled Climate Impact data and info
data and info data and infoSERC – Climate Info External Activities
Currently, our major “clients”/stakeholders are large international
institutions (e.g., World Bank, …) and national policy makers and
institutions (Italian ministries, regional and local administrations)
Italian Ministry of Environment:
e.g.: guidelines for National
Large international development Adaptation Strategies
institutions (WB, ADB, etc) B
e.g.:. Capacity for Climate
Resilience in Tajikistan
Municipalities
(e.g., Venice, Bologna,
urban planningSERC – Climate Info External Activities
Catalogue of products at SERC based on sectors (work in progress)
Five major sectors identified (for the moment) :
• estimation of crop yield annual changes
• fire risk predictions
• Agriculture/Forests • water balance
• change in forests stocks
• land capability and sustainability analysis
• fire risk predictions
• water balance
• Public sector • water quality
• extremes and risk analysis (coastal erosion, floods, …)
• water balance
• degrees day
• Energy
• ocean circulation / sea-ice (off-shore platforms)
• wind/solar
• Transport • ship routing
• extremes
2 • Insurance • risk analysis (coastal erosion, floods, …
2Una catena modellistica del Bacino del Po
Multi-model Downscaling Hydrologic model
climate data (SD/DD)
Cred
its: Michi
gan S
tate U
niver
sity
• Gestione risorsa idrica (magre)
• Emergenze pieneThanks
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