Cege-Report Issue 1, 2021 Differences in Drivers and Motives? - Universität Göttingen
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cege-Report
Issue 1, 2021
y :
A s y lum F lows to German
d
Migration an rivers and Motives?
D
Differences in Danzinger
ak-Lehmann
Felicitas Now
it y
ls und e r Ind irect Reciproc
The Evolu tion of Mora
er
Stephan Müll
nd A rtifi c ia l Intelligence
Copyright ar
le
Gerald Spind
l
g re m ie n : E in e internationa
troll
u e n in L e itu ngs- und Kon omischen Konsequenzen
Fra on
Studie der ,öVkladlena Prysyazhna, Mengyang M
a
v e rgle ic h e n d e ls
ar ha H. Möl
tz, Sasc
Helmut Herw
Impressum
Centrum für Europa-, Governance- und Entwicklungsforschung (cege)
Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen
Email: cege@uni-goettingen.de
Tel. 0551/39–28125
Internet: http://www.cege.uni-goettingen.de
Geschäftsführender Direktor: Prof. Dr. Udo Kreickemeier
Redaktion/Layout: Prof. Dr. Udo Kreickemeier, Mattheus Brenigany:
d A s y lu m F lows to Germ
Migration an rivers and Motives?
D
Differences in zinger
ak-Lehmann
Dan
Felicitas Now
Background disproportionately large reduction in asylum requests
in all origin countries. Law and order, government sta-
In the last 25 years, 2015 was the year in which Germany
bility and external conflict do not act as robust drivers
experienced the greatest immigration flows from non-
of asylum requests at the country level.
German born populations. Since then, the inflow of mi-
The analysis of asylum recognition shows that posi-
grants has been large but starting to slow, indicative of
tive asylum decisions are not so much granted based on
the different country-of-origin dynamics and, generally
the constitutional right to asylum because of persecution
speaking, still keeping German authorities operating at
but rather on the finding of inhuman living conditions
full capacity. Asylum requests followed with a one-year
that result from political turmoil and conflict.
lag reaching their top in 2016. Since then, the inflow has
slowed but the question remains as to what is still in Conclusions
store: Will we continue to observe smaller numbers of Our analysis reveals that political factors, institutional
new (asylum) migrants or will we see greater numbers risk, and economic factors determine both overall migra-
of new arrivals in Germany in the medium or long term? tion and asylum migration. Political factors influence
To shed light on this question, it is helpful to evaluate overall migration as 50–80 % of all migrants file asylum
past determinants of migration and asylum flows and to applications either once they have entered Germany or a
understand the role these determinants played for both couple of months (or even years) later. Economic factors
migration and asylum migration. Hence, a better under- are also determinants of asylum applications as asylum
standing of the drivers and impediments of migration seekers most often come for a several reasons. Moreover,
and in particular, migrant responses to economic, socioe- we find that economic factors seem to have a dispro-
conomic, political, demographic, and climate-related dy- portionately large impact on asylum requests. Climate
namics in their home countries is needed to better cope change impacts both migration and asylum migration
with immigration. in the expected direction, thus, increasing migration but
Drivers/motives of (asylum) migration only to a very small extent. Hence, to the extent that
economic depression because of the Covid-19 pandemic
To this end, we have modeled the determinants of (asy- might lead to more political turmoil and conflicts in the
lum) migration using a dataset of 131 origin/sending less developed world, we should expect an increase in
countries over the period of 1996–2017 and have uti- overall migration and asylum migration in the coming
lized panel regression techniques for estimations. Our years.
migration model analyzes the role played by many eco-
nomic and non-economic drivers of migration: i) climate References
change, ii) economic opportunities in Germany, iii) mi- Nowak-Lehmann D., F., Cardozo, A. and Martínez-
gration networks in Germany, iv) many home country Zarzoso, I. (2020). Migration and asylum flows to
characteristics (such as per capita income, population Germany: From facts to analysis. Discussion Paper
pressure, poverty, unemployment), v) the political and No. 248, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Re-
vi) institutional situation in the sending countries (mea- search. University of Goettingen.
sured by internal and external conflict, ethnic and re-
ligious tensions, government stability, law and order,
military in politics) and vii) changes in German migra-
tion law.
Findings
The econometric analysis of migration inflows (mostly
from Eastern Europe) reveals the importance of migrant
networks, population pressure, and economic and so-
cioeconomic factors in determining migration. We ob-
serve the relevance of political risk factors also for gen-
eral migrant inflows, with ethnic tensions and internal
conflict being of utmost relevance.
When looking at asylum requests, we confirm that eth-
nic tensions and internal conflict are drivers of asylum
requests. Improvements in ethnic tensions and internal
conflict consistently reduce the number of asylum re-
quests, with a disproportionately high impact in a few
origin countries, namely the ones with either a high or
low recognition rate. Interestingly, improvements in
economic and socioeconomic conditions also lead to a
Issue 1, 2021 Seite 2 cege-Reportrocit y
o ra ls und e r Indirect Recip
of M
The Evolution
er
Stephan Müll
Many natural and social scientists share the view that for the omnipresent heterogeneity in moral judgments
the function of morality is to induce interpersonal coor- among humans. Moreover, some players’ behavior is
dination and to produce mutually beneficial cooperative predicted to depend on second-order information. That
patterns. For example, Joyce (2006) emphasizes that the is, a player’s decision to act cooperatively toward a po-
moralization of our practical lives serves our long-term tential receiver not only depends on the past behavior
interests by supplying license for punishment, and jus- of the receiver (first-order) but also on the reputation of
tification for likes and dislikes. From an economist’s the current receiver’s past partner. Thus, second-order
perspective, morality might therefore be of particular information allows the distinction between justifiable
relevance for interactions where people have an incen- and unjustifiable past defection.
tive to free ride on the cooperation of others. The role We also shed light on the selection among differ-
of moral judgment might be particularly pronounced in ent morals. The two sets of stable cooperative rest
situations where the mechanism of direct reciprocity can- point in our model emphasize the role of a particular
not sustain cooperation. In such adverse environments second-order strategy. The implicit moral of that strat-
the concept of indirect reciprocity has been proposed egy matches with the real-life societal judgment as in
to explain the evolution of cooperation. Contrary to di- the historical example of Greif (1989). That is, not coop-
rect reciprocity, under indirect reciprocity a cooperative erating with someone who cooperated before is a partic-
act is not reciprocated by the receiver of that act but ular reprehensible behavior which ought to be punished.
by a third party. Promoting cooperation through this However, not cooperating with someone who himself
mechanism requires individuals to carry an observable did not cooperate before, is regarded as a justifiable
reputation which informs other members of the society defection and therefore not punished.
about their past behavior. In our paper, we also report the results of a labora-
Greif (1989) provides a historical example of such a tory experiment that provides direct evidence of the
reputation system. In the 11th Century members of a presence of the predicted strategies reflecting different
group of Mediterranean traders relied on other coalition moral judgements. One of our main findings is that
members to complete some of their business dealings about 75 % of the participants employ one of the strate-
overseas. The immanent moral hazard problem was gies predicted by our theoretical model.
solved via an informal reputation mechanism described References
by Greif as follows. “[A]ll coalition merchants agree never
to employ an agent that cheated while operating for a coalition Gaudeul, A.; Keser, C.; Müller, S. (2021). The evolu-
member. Furthermore, if an agent who was caught cheating tion of morals under indirect reciprocity. Games and
operates as a merchant, coalition agents who cheated in their Economic Behavior 126: 251-277.
dealings with him will not be considered by other coalition Greif, A. (1989) Reputation and coalitions in medieval
members to have cheated.” Thus, from a moral perspec- trade: evidence on the Maghribi traders. Journal of
tive, defection on someone who defected before was Economic History 49: 857-882.
justifiable. Joyce, R. (2006). The evolution of morality. MIT Press.
Most previous research on indirect reciprocity is in Nowak, M. A.; Sigmund, K. (1998). Evolution of indirect
the tradition of the seminal paper of Nowak and Sig- reciprocity by image scoring. Nature 393: 573-577.
mund (1998) and mainly focuses on the identification
of specific reputation mechanisms and its informational
requirements for cooperation to evolve. In this research,
it is assumed that all members of a society obey the same
moral, i.e., all individuals share the same notion of what
is considered good and what is bad behavior. More re-
cently, researchers started to explore the evolution of
systems of morals.
In our paper, we provide an analytically tractable
model of indirect reciprocity which allows us to study
the evolution of different inherited strategies reflecting
different moral judgments. We fully characterize all
stable sets of rest points of the evolutionary dynamics.
Our theoretical results provide an analytic foundation
for recent simulation results, agent-based simulations
and a rationale for previous experimental evidence.
In our model, there are only two stable sets of cooper-
ative rest points. Both sets are characterized by the coex-
istence of different morals which offers an explanation
Issue 1, 2021 Seite 3 cege-Reportnd A rtifi c ia l Intelligence
Copyright a
ler
Gerald Spind
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become one of the hottest the framework in which the specific work shall be created.
topics in more or less all legal areas, be it liability, criminal Thus, there are still good arguments to attribute the work
law, legal tech, or even agricultural law. Hence, it is no created by AI to the one who uses the AI, even though
surprise that AI also raises issues in copyright law, mainly the specific outcome cannot be predicted. If, for instance,
concerning two different questions. The first refers to the artist decide to train an AI on paintings of Rembrandt
creation of works with the help of AI, the second deals and then the AI construes a “new Rembrandt” it depends
with copyright protection of AI itself. how far the artists influenced the AI. If the artists trained
Regarding AI as a tool to create works we have to be the AI on certain paintings (and not on all of them) then
aware that even though AI seems to be equivalent to there is still strong influence on the creation of the final
human mind (as the notion “intelligence” suggests) in “AI-painting” so that the work should be attributed to the
reality AI is still far away from being really “intelligent”. artists. If, however, artists choose to train the AI on all
Much depends on the notion of “intelligence”: if “intel- paintings and even those of other painters then the setting
ligent” is understood as finding new ways not known of goals and framework is significant lesser.
before AI may be called “intelligent” as AI can detect new The other relevant aspect from a copyright law perspec-
relationships in big data heaps which was not possible tive regards the protection of AI itself. Under the current
before. Even more, AI can learn from previous errors and legal framework, it is not the AI as a concept or as an
mistakes and improve the patterns of its program. Thus, algorithm which is protected rather than AI as a code on
some argue that the author does not have sufficient con- the grounds of the EU Software Directive. Moreover, data
trol anymore how the work is being created and under which is being used for training the AI is not protected
which conditions. However, AI in its present forms can as such, only if the AI is based on a database then the
not determine the preferences or goals to achieve; it is still structure of this database is being protected according to
up to the human being implementing and using AI to the EU database directive. Also, the data which is being
define the areas and goals for the AI. In other words, AI produced by the AI is currently not protected under copy-
may improve ways to achieve a goal but cannot change right law. However, the new generated data by an AI
it. Hence, suggestions to qualify AI (or robots) as a new system can be qualified as a trade secret according to the
form of legal person (so-called “ePerson”) disregard these new EU Directive on the protection of undisclosed know-
facts; moreover, they cannot answer the crucial questions how and business information (trade secrets). However,
how AI could be held liable or could raise money in order this protection is clearly weaker than it would be under
regarding claims against AI (or robots). In sum, the real copyright law as trade secrets are not real property rights.
question regarding all legal areas concerns more the issue Looking to the future, the situation may change if AI
if actions of AI can be attributed to the human being using will really be able to turn around goals and preferences
the AI. set by the owner of AI. Even that still seems far away
In copyright law, AI raises the question if works cre- and some sort of science fiction, we then have to con-
ated by AI can still be regarded as a personal intellectual sider the introduction of new forms of legal persons as
creation which is crucial for acknowledging copyright pro- the activities of AI can not anymore be attributed to the
tection for a work. As the behaviour of AI is more or less “author”. Moreover, regarding the protection of data used
not predictable the traditional “deterministic” approach for training the AI as well as the data generated by the
concerning the use of digital tools cannot anymore be ap- AI it is arguable whether protection as a trade secret may
plied; before the development of AI the use of software be sufficient. On the other side, new developments in
by the author (creator) could simply be attributed to the informatics make it likely that data and its use may be
author as the outcome is in principle foreseeable. The situ- traced, so that boundaries and limits of use of data may
ation changes if the author uses an AI and can only set the be controlled by technological means. Thus, the need for
main preferences and goals to be achieved. The situation introduction of legal property rights may not be necessary
is somehow comparable to works of art which are created as technological tools could be quite efficient. In addi-
by using software which randomize the use of colours etc. tion, business-to-business platforms seem to establish by
The outcome of using the AI, however, cannot be foreseen means of standard terms of conditions. Thus, in sum, the
so that some authors argue that the main part of the “cre- evolution of AI should be closely monitored, also how
ativity” has been done by the AI – and not by the author, data is being traded and protected by contractual terms
so that in the end the outcome cannot be considered as – so that for the time being there is no need for legisla-
inaugurated by a human being and thus would not be tive actions concerning the extension or modification of
acknowledged as a copyrighted work. On the other side, copyright protection.
such a perspective seems to overstate the role of creativity References
and the range/capabilities of AI. As AI is not “intelligent”
Spindler, G. (2021). Copyright and AI, in di Matteo (ed.),
in a legal sense, in other terms: it cannot be compared to
Artificial intelligence and private Law, Cambridge
a human will, and as AI cannot set its own goals and pref-
Univ.Press, forthcoming.
erences, it is still the author who uses AI and who defines
Issue 1, 2021 Seite 4 cege-Reportm ie n : E in e international
llgre
n in L e it u n g s- und Kontro ischen Konsequenzen
Fraue nom
tudie der öVklaodlena Prysyazhna, Mengyang Ma
le ic h e n d e S
verg artz , Sascha H. M
ölls,
Helmut Herw
Die Präsenz von Frauen in Gremien der Unterneh- Von diesen Ländern lassen sich historisch jeweils fünf
mensführung und -überwachung ist in den letzten Jah- Länder dem Exit- (Australien, Großbritannien, Kanada,
ren in der Wissenschaft, in der betrieblichen Praxis und Neuseeland, USA), dem Voice- (Deutschland, Finnland,
seitens der regelsetzenden Instanzen zu einem intensiv Niederlande, Schweden, Schweiz) und dem Loyalty-
und zugleich kontrovers diskutierten Thema geworden. System (Belgien, Frankreich, Italien, Japan, Spanien)
Scheint über die generellen Vorteile „diverser“ Gremi- zuordnen, was eine ausgewogene Zusammensetzung
en für die Entscheidungsfindung prinzipiell Einigkeit der Stichprobe mit Hinblick auf verschiedene Corporate
zu bestehen, zeitigen empirische Studien zu den öko- Governance-Systeme sicherstellt.
nomischen Konsequenzen (zum Erfolg) der Diversität Auf Basis dieser Stichprobe wird der Einfluss eines
mehrdeutige Befunde. Mögliche konzeptionelle Ursa- höheren Anteils der Frauen im (1.) Vorstand, im (2.) Auf-
chen für diese Ergebnisheterogenität und in der Folge sichtsrat und im (3.) gesamten Board of Directors auf
für die eingeschränkte Verwertbarkeit der Ergebnisse den Unternehmenserfolg und die Volatilität des Unter-
für die praktische (regulatorische) Problemlösung stel- nehmenserfolges unter Anwendung von Verfahren der
len zunächst eingeschränkte Untersuchungsstichproben Quantilsregression untersucht. Basierend auf differen-
(die sich oft auf nur ein bestimmtes Land beziehen), zierten Analysen zeigt sich, dass ein höherer Anteil der
mitunter sehr unvollständige Datengrundlagen unter Frauen im Aufsichtsrat oder im Board of Directors einen
Rückgriff auf öffentliche verfügbare Datenbanken oder signifikant negativen Einfluss auf die Volatilität des To-
auch der Rückgriff auf vergleichsweise einfache (lineare) bin’s Q (als einem kapital-marktbasierten Erfolgsmaß)
Analyseansätze dar. Zudem fokussiert sich die Mehrheit in höheren Quantilen dieser Variable hat, in denen die
der Forschung aus einer generellen Perspektive auf die weltweit größten Firmen („Global Player“) zu finden
Präsenz von Frauen im Führungs- und Kontrollgremi- sind. Im Gegensatz dazu lässt sich allerdings kein signi-
um des Board of Directors, wohingegen die spezifischen fikanter Einfluss auf die Volatilität des Return on Assets
Funktionen von (Teil-)Gremien mit ihren jeweils unter- (ROA; als einem eher „rückblickenden“ Erfolgsmaß) be-
schiedlichen Implikationen für den ökonomischen Er- obachten. Insgesamt bestätigt die Studie, dass Frauen
folg von Unternehmen außer Acht gelassen werden. So in Aufsichtspositionen mit Hinblick auf ihre vermutlich
lässt sich plausibel annehmen, dass das leitende Initiativ- stärker ausgeprägte Risikoaversion eine stabilere Ent-
organ (Vorstand oder Management Board) eine andere wicklung des Unternehmens begünstigen, was sich in
Relevanz für den (Miss-)Erfolg von Unternehmen hat als einer geringeren Fluktuation des Tobin’s Q widerspie-
Kontrollgremien (Aufsichtsrat oder Non-Executives im gelt.
Board of Directors), denen eine selektive Überwachungs- Der funktionale Unterschied zwischen dem Vorstand
und ggf. Beratungsaufgabe zugeschrieben wird. und dem Aufsichtsrat und die damit zusammenhän-
Vor dem Hintergrund der skizzierten konzeptionel- gende Differenz in der Relevanz weiblicher Mitglieder
len Lücken basiert dieses laufende Forschungsprojekt für den Unternehmenserfolg wird insbesondere in der
zunächst auf einem umfassenden, manuell erhobenen Analyse der Auswirkungen eines höheren Anteils von
Datensatz bestehend aus den 100 größten Konzernober- Frauen auf die Höhe des Tobin’s Q und ROA ersicht-
gesellschaften aus 15 traditionellen Industrieländern - lich. Es lässt sich festhalten, dass die Bedeutung der
namentlich aus Australien, Belgien, Deutschland, Finn- Präsenz von Frauen in den Führungsorganen im Zeitab-
land, Frankreich, Großbritannien, Italien, Japan, Kanada, lauf zugenommen hat, da der signifikante Einfluss auf
Neuseeland, den Niederlanden, Schweden, der Schweiz, den Unternehmenserfolg eher für das Jahr 2015 als für
Spanien und den USA - für die Jahre 2010 und 2015. 2010 ersichtlich ist.
2010 2015
Women on Management Supervisory Board of di- Management Supervisory Board of di-
board board rector board board rector
1st Quantile 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.125 0.111
Median 0.000 0.091 0.091 0.000 0.222 0.200
3rd Quantile 0.146 0.182 0.167 0.167 0.333 0.286
Mean 0.087 0.113 0.103 0.099 0.218 0.195
Std.deviation 0.133 0.130 0.113 0.145 0.148 0.129
Number of firms: 1500 Number of firms: 1491
Tabelle 1 — Deskriptive Statistiken des Frauenanteils im Vorstand (Management board), Aufsichtsrat (Supervi-
sory board) und Board of Directors in den Jahren 2010 und 2015.
Issue 1, 2021 Seite 5 cege-ReportDieser Befund wird zudem dadurch deutlich, dass in achtet werden, während der Effekt an unteren Quantilen 2015 im Durchschnitt ein größerer Anteil der Frauen in positiv ist (siehe Abbildung 1 und 2). Dieses Ergebnis allen drei Führungsorganen beobachtet werden kann als weist darauf hin, dass der Einfluss der Präsenz von Frau- in 2010 (siehe Tabelle 1). en von der Profitabilität des Unternehmens abhängig Während es einen deutlich positiven Effekt eines hö- ist, was den Widerspruch existierender Ergebnisse teil- heren Anteils von Frauen im Aufsichtsrat und im Board weise erklären kann. Zudem ist zu beachten, dass sich of Directors auf den ROA und Tobin’s Q gibt, besteht al- der Effekt des Frauenanteils in Führungsorganen auf lerdings in der Stichprobe für 2010 vereinzelt ein negati- den ROA bereits im Folgejahr (t + 1) beobachten lässt, ver Effekt des Anteils weiblicher Mitglieder im Vorstand während der Effekt auf Tobin’s Q erst zwei Jahre später auf den ROA, was auf eher negative Auswirkungen der (t + 2) entsteht. Diversität für die direkte Entscheidungsfindung hindeu- tet. Die Effektivität der Vorstände scheint jedoch mit In einer Gesamtschau liefert die Studie Einblicke Hinblick auf die Diversität zugenommen zu haben, da in die (Erfolgs-)Relevanz der Präsenz von Frauen in dieser negative Zusammenhang fünf Jahre später nicht Führungs- und Aufsichtsgremien und adressiert in die- mehr zu beobachten ist. Für Aufsichtsrat und Board of sem Zusammenhang die Limitationen früherer Studien Directors kann ebenfalls vereinzelt an oberen Quantilen mit Bezug zur Datenbasis und der verwendeten Metho- ein negativer Effekt auf den ROA und Tobin’s Q beob- dik. Abbildung 1 — Einfluss des Frauenanteils im Aufsichtsrat (Supervisory board) in 2015 auf ROA in 2016 (links) und 2017 (rechts). Auf der y-Achse sind die marginalen Effekte auf verschiedenen Quantilen von ROA abge- bildet, das auf der x-Achse abgetragen ist. Die schattierte Fläche stellt das 95 %-Konfidenzintervall für den durch die Quantile Regression geschätzten Koeffizienten dar. Der OLS-Schätzer und das dazugehörige 95 %- Konfidenzintervall werden durch die roten Linien ersichtlich. Abbildung 2 — Einfluss des Frauenanteils im Aufsichtsrat (Supervisory board) in 2015 auf Tobin’s Q in 2016 (links) und 2017 (rechts). Auf der y-Achse sind die marginalen Effekte auf verschiedenen Quantilen von Tobin´s Q abgebildet, das auf der x-Achse abgetragen ist. Die schattierte Fläche stellt das 95 %-Konfidenzintervall für den durch die Quantile Regression geschätzten Koeffizienten dar. Der OLS-Schätzer und das dazugehörige 95 %-Konfidenzintervall werden durch die roten Linien ersichtlich. Issue 1, 2021 Seite 6 cege-Report
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