CI 303 Structured Analytics - Presented by Nan Bulger
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
CI 303 Structured Analytics
Presented by Nan Bulger
Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC
630.983.5530
www.academyci.com
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical photocopying,
recording or otherwise without the permission from the Academy of Competitive Intelligence and Nan Bulger.
History Academy of Competitive Intelligence The Academy of Competitive Intelligence (ACI) is the original educational institution in the space of Competitive and Market Intelligence training. It was formed in 1999 by the “gurus” who created the field back in the 80’s: Leonard Fuld of Fuld & CO., Dr. Ben Gilad of the Academy of Competitive Intelligence Inc., and Jan Herring of Herring & Associates. Leonard Fuld created many of the intelligence-gathering techniques currently used by corporations around the globe, and his book, Competitor Intelligence: How to get it, how to use it (Wiley, 1985) was a best seller and the first book on the subject. His company Fuld & Co. was founded in 1979. Recently, Leonard has retired from Fuld & Co., and the Academy in 2017. Dr. Ben Gilad is considered a leading developer of competitive/strategic intelligence theory and practice in the US and the originator of both strategic early warning systems and war gaming for corporations. Ben is a former Associate Professor of Strategy at Rutgers University’s School of Management. His first books, The Business Intelligence System (1988) and Business Blindspots (1993), paved the way for the CI evolution in US corporations, many of which emulated the basic principles of Gilad’s CI process model. He also wrote Business War Games (2009) and is considered the “CI guru” in the industry. Jan Herring, formerly a senior CIA official set up the U.S. government’s first intelligence organization to assess the national security implications of foreign developments of civilian technology that could adversely affect the U.S. economy. Once retired from service, Jan designed and developed the first modern business intelligence system at Motorola (1985) and went on to advise many corporations on the principles of organizing the CI function. Jan has retired from the Academy in 2017. The CIP™ program which was created by these three CI founders is a complete intelligence program - from basics to advanced analysis – and the most widely recognized around the globe. Ben is still leading its analytical core, and its faculty expanded to include Troy Pfeffer, Nan Bulger, Heather Hallenbeck and Dr. Helen Rothberg.
Take a tour of ACI’s resources
www.academyci.com
Continuing Education Units (CEU)
Core Courses - CIP™-I Certification Credits/CEUs
CI 101/202 Competitive Intelligence Planning & Collection .7
CI 301 Competitive Blindspots .7
CI 302 Cross-Competitor Analysis .7
CI 303 Structured Analytics .7
CI 304 Reporting & Communicating Intelligence .7
Advanced Courses - Master of CI CIP™-II Certification
CI 401 War Gaming: Theory and Practice 1.8
CI 402 Value Chain Analysis .7
CI 403 Anticipating Disruptions 1.4
Total CEU’s 7.4
In order to receive CEUs, participants MUST:
1. Sign in and out for each course
2. Attend each course for the entire duration
3. Participate
4. Complete the evaluation at the end of the day
Disclosure of Instructor’s Proprietary Interest
We strongly discourage the promotion of paid services to the participants of the course
during teaching. While the faculty’s expertise and leadership position in the field will inevitably
lead to requests for subsequent services, questions and advice, maintaining professional
decorum during the course delivery mandates that such discussions take place only after the
course has been delivered.
This is a course in structured analysis.
…what does that mean?
…enabling and driving our competitiveness with a structured
approach to decision making.
The goal of this class is to teach you how to build an unbiased and
flexible approach to decision making that is “non-linear“. Instead, we
use structured analytic approaches derived from the security space
and applied to business applications.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured Analysis
Our Course Road Map - Framing Competitiveness
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO
our present situational awareness …and where should we go?
…where are we now?... Decision makers often start
here introducing bias!
“Prove MY hypothesis!”
1 2 3 4 Bias!
contextual environmental view scenarios &
key
assumptions
check
Core 5
ecosystem
competitive
competency what if 6 7
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen monitor/
ACH & chosen final
report/ adjust
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping hypothesis scenario 2 strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
what if
“Hypothesis Mapping” scenario 3
“ACH” *Structured Analytic
“Indicators & “What If Analysis”
“Assumptions Check” Techniques name is the
Signposts of “Brainstorming
“Quality of Information property of Richard Hauer and
Change” Alternative Futures”
Check” Randy Pherson
“Devil’s Advocacy”
applying non-linear thinking to structured analysis techniques for business
resulting in clear decision making capabilities
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured Analysis
Seminar Schedule & Agenda
8:30-9:00 INTRODUCTION , ROADMAP & CASE – Why are we here? What are non-linear thinking and structured
analysis concepts? How do we define structured analysis and what is it’s origin? How do these concepts
help us to be more competitive? Introduction to the case and why we choose this.
9:00-9:45 PART 1 - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS - Discussion on Eco System and Radar Screen Development
9:30-10:30 EXERCISE 1 [60 mins] – Build your Situational Awareness for McDonald’s. Build a comprehensive eco
system mapping, identify drivers of change and build a competitive landscape radar screen.
10:30-10:40 BREAK -10 minutes!
10:40-11:00 PART 1 - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS - Core Competency Identification and Gaps – Industry/Yours –
Ability to Succeed Measures
11:00-11:30 EXERCISE 2 [30 mins]– Core Competency Identification and Gaps – Industry/Yours – Ability to Succeed
Measures
11:30-12:00 EXERCISE 1,2 READOUT – What does your situational awareness include?
12:00-1:00 LUNCH [60 minutes]
1:00-1:45 PART 2 - STRATEGY & STRATEGIC READINESS - Strategic Hypotheses, Types of Hypotheses and
Assumption Checks, ACH {Analysis of Competing Hypotheses]
1:45-2:45 EXERCISE 3 – [60 minutes] Conduct Assumptions Checks and build a comprehensive ACH – Analysis of
Competing Hypotheses. Select a favorable hypothesis.
2:45-2:55 BREAK [10 minutes]
2:55-3:25 EXERCISE 3 READOUT – Why did you choose a particular strategic hypothesis?
3:25 – 3:55 PART 2 - STRATEGY & STRATEGIC READINESS - What If Scenarios and Final Hypothesis
3:55-4:15 EXERCISE 4 – [20 minutes] Build one What If scenario and determine dynamics
4:15-4:45 EXERCISE 4 READOUT – Why did you choose a particular strategic hypothesis?
4:45 – 5:00 DISCUSSION BRIEF ON MONITORING COURSE CLOSEOUT, QUESTIONS - How can we set up a simple
monitoring system based on what we have learned today? The definition of a KPIs versus KAIs. Tips on
building a dashboard. Dashboards,
5:00 – 5:15 COURSE CLOSEOUT & QUESTIONS
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured Analysis
Our Case - McDonald’s is a major player in the beef burger market…
in case you didn’t already know that….!
– They have been challenged by changes in
the market [analytics lines]
– The Board of Directors wants a strategy that
includes a full vegan menu across all
markets
– The CEO/CFO believe this is a mistake and
wants to maintain the current menu and
increase advertising in support of beef while
letting foreign sales carry the losses in the
US market
– Others suggest a compromise however this
is territory unfamiliar to McDonalds given
their successful run for many years!
Photo by XUNO. on Unsplash
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured Analysis
Before we begin…What is a “non-linear” approach?
linear thinkers think like this
…a predetermined
process
‘here is my
CONFIRMATION BIAS
hypothesis…
“it must fit my logic?”
review the past & the
past supporting data everyone falls in line
and looks for the
…start with what I details / new data
know and fill in the that fits Adapted from N. Bulger’s SIR
gaps… presentation, 10/2019
‘P. Jahne/N. Bulger, 2019
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisBefore we begin…What is a “non-linear” approach?
non-linear thinkers think like this
“here is my
hypothesis 1…”
“here is my future
hypothesis 2…” “here is my focused…
priority always
hypothesis” considering the
“here is my unknowns
…but what if I hypothesis 3…”
don’t know….
…lots of
disparate Adapted from N. Bulger’s SIR
alternate
dynamic data presentation, 10/2019
scenarios based on ‘P. Jahne/N. Bulger, 2019
assumptions
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisPart One Situational Awareness
Framing Competitiveness
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO
our present situational awareness …and where should we go?
…where are we now?...
WHY DO I WANT TO DO THIS?
By starting with the eco-system build, we
1 develop a very clear understanding of the
2 3 4 dynamics that should drive our decisions and
contextual environmental view begin the construction of early warning!
scenarios &
key
assumptions
check
Core 5
competitive what if 6 7
ecosystem competency
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen monitor/
ACH & chosen final
report/ adjust
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping hypothesis scenario 2 strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
what if
“Hypothesis Mapping” scenario 3
“Indicators & “ACH” “What If Analysis”
Signposts of “Assumptions Check” “Brainstorming
Change” “Quality of Information Alternative Futures”
Check” “Devil’s Advocacy”
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used
without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisWhat is an eco system and an eco system driver?
• Things [events, thoughts, ideas, etc…] that “encourage/enable/force
a dynamic shift ” in the business environment
• They can range from a number of elements and be radically different
depending on where I sit in the world market
• They are the foundational elements and the basis for assumption
based modeling and predictive analytics
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisEco systems and drivers defined
What is a eco system and why do we care?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisCompanies compete in global environments so know
what goes on there!
….what drives the environment that we
compete in or want to compete in?
Technology
& Products
Economic Political
& Industry &
Trends Regulatory
Events Company A
Catastrophic Business Customers
or Evolving Environment
Global &/
Partners or
Regional other
Demographics companies
& Culture Global &
Regional
Competitors
The Intelligence Synergy Model™ is the property of Nanette J. Bulger
May not be used or distributed with express written consent of the owner
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisWhat are eco system drivers?
• Things [events, thoughts, ideas, etc…] that “encourage/enable/force
a dynamic shift ” in the business environment
• They can range from a number of elements and be radically different
depending on where I sit in the world market
• They are the foundational elements and the basis for assumption
based modeling and predictive analytics
• Their importance may change depending on what is happening in
the market
• They often have dependencies and relationships with other drivers
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisCompanies have ALL kinds of relationships
Even with one another!
Technology Technology
& Products & Products
Economic Political
Economic Political & Industry &
& Industry & Trends Regulatory
Trends Regulatory
Events Company B
Catastrophic Business Customers
or Evolving Environment
Events Company A
Catastrophic Business Customers
or Evolving Environment Global &/ Partners or
Regional other
Demographics companies
Global &
Regional
Competitors
Global &/
Partners or
Regional other
Demographics companies
& Culture Global &
Regional
Competitors
The Intelligence Synergy Model™ is the property of Nanette J. Bulger
May not be used or distributed with express written consent of the owner
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisAlways build strategic hypotheses that are based on vetted
drivers and well understood interdependencies!
Topography?
Income?
Economic crisis?
Gov. Regulations?
Culture?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisDriver Template aka Indicators, & Signposts
Eco System Category Driver Metrics to measure Notes Present Strategy - Positive
Location: USA or Negative for McDonalds?
Economic & Industry
Trends
Less Expendable income Unemployment levels People are eating in less
expensive restaurants, take
out or eat at home
Demographic & Cultural
Millennials make up 60% of Population mix Millennials and GenZ are a
paying population growing population
Vegan population 70% of Vegan market growth Many millennials are vegan
paying population
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisFraming Competitiveness
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO
our present situational awareness …and where should we go?
…where are we now?...
WHY DO I WANT TO DO THIS?
The radar screen is actually just one aspect of the
ecosystem build where we deep dive into existing
1 competition and disruptors. Why? Because you
2 3 4 may have future competition you don’t even know
contextual environmental view about yet!
scenarios &
key
assumptions
check
Core 5
competitive what if 6 7
ecosystem competency
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen monitor/
ACH & chosen final
report/ adjust
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping hypothesis scenario 2 strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
what if
“Hypothesis Mapping” scenario 3
“Indicators & “ACH” “What If Analysis”
Signposts of “Assumptions Check” “Brainstorming
Change” “Quality of Information Alternative Futures”
Check” “Devil’s Advocacy”
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used
without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisRadar Screen tier definitions [if in relation to me as
McDonald’s
Tier 1 No barriers to entry. Main competitors. Threat of taking
market share [BURGER KING]
Some barriers to entry. Could partner with main
Tier 2 competitors or acquire products, services, locations to
take share and expand markets [Adjacencies –
IMPOSSIBLE BURGER]
McDonalds Tier 3 Have barriers to entry. May be inside or outside the
industry. Could partner with main competitors or acquire
products, services, locations to take share and expand
markets. May have a different business model [UBER
EATS]
Tier 4 Disruptors. Outside the industry. Introduce a new
business model. Might have completely new products
and services [STARBUCKS]
The Intelligence Synergy Model™ is the property of Nanette J. Bulger
May not be used or distributed with express written consent of the owner
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisRadar Screen Competitor Mapping
How will the driver landscape effect your competition?
Technology
& Products
Economic
Political
& Industry
& Regulatory
Trends
Tier 1
Events Company A
Catastrophic
or Evolving
Business
Environment
Customers Tier 2
Global &/
Tier 3
Partners or
Regional other
Demographics companies
& Culture
Global &
Regional Tier 4
Competitors
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisReview - Framing Competitiveness
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO
our present situational awareness …and where should we go?
…where are we now?...
REVIEW – Now we have SOME situational
awareness about the market we will or would like
to compete in and an understanding of the
1 disparate data that exists out there in space!
2 3 4
contextual environmental view scenarios &
key
assumptions
check
Core 5
competitive what if 6 7
ecosystem competency
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen monitor/
ACH & chosen final
report/ adjust
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping hypothesis scenario 2 strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
what if
“Hypothesis Mapping” scenario 3
“Indicators & “ACH” “What If Analysis”
Signposts of “Assumptions Check” “Brainstorming
Change” “Quality of Information Alternative Futures”
Check” “Devil’s Advocacy”
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used
without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisEco-system situational awareness
e
Build an eco system in which McDonald’s is competing
exercise 1
You have been brought into McDonald’s to sit Timeframe
on the leadership team and help make decisions
• You have 60 minutes to complete
BUT you are new to the organization….
this exercise
1. Build an eco system for McDonald’s for 1 global
region [the US] You have some information on • Choose one person to explain your
Europe, China. In your discussions, consider in eco system and another person to
part what some of the differences might be. explain your radar screens and how
2. Build a 2 competitive radar screens. One with you and why they are different….if they
at the center and 1 for the landscape in general. are.
Discuss how they are different if they are and
discuss the types of competitors you might find at
each tier and why. • What did you learn from this
3. Do not yet consider what hypotheses are viable. exercise?
Just consider market dynamics at this point. • What made this exercise difficult?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisDriver Template Exercise 1 e
Flip Chart
Template 1 exercise 1
Eco System Category Driver Metrics to measure Notes Present Strategy - Positive
Location: USA or Negative for McDonalds?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisTemplate Exercise 1 e
Flip Chart
Template 2 exercise 1
McDonalds
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisTemplate Exercise 1 e
Flip Chart
Template 3 exercise 1
Industry – Fast Food
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisFraming Competitiveness
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO
our present situational awareness …and where should we go?
…where are we now?...
WHY DO I WANT TO DO THIS?
Knowing what is needed to succeed in a market
[core competencies or key success factors] and
mapping our own capabilities against it will help
1 2 3 4 us to understand our gaps and set the stage for
contextual environmental view our strategy.
scenarios &
key
assumptions
check
Core 5
competitive what if 6 7
ecosystem competency
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen monitor/
ACH & chosen final
report/ adjust
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping hypothesis scenario 2 strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
what if
“Hypothesis Mapping” scenario 3
“ACH”
“Indicators & “Assumptions Check” “What If Analysis”
Signposts of “Quality of Information “Brainstorming
Change” Check” Alternative Futures”
“Devil’s Advocacy”
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used
without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisCore competencies and key success factors
Simple Definition - A core competency [CC] is an internal skill set, process, tool, product,
service or other element required to be successful in a marketplace that comes from their strength
in the value chain.
Examples: Fast Food Industry
• Order to Delivery Time under x mins
• Inventory/Delivery every day
• Branding ability
• Location
• Efficiency of Operations.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisCore Competencies - Ability to succeed template –
Identifying red flags!
Industry Core Competencies McDonald's Does Competitor A Does Competitor B Does Competitor Does Competitor
What is needed and what have this [Tier 1] have this [Tier 2] have this C [Tier 3] have this D [Tier 4] have this
customers want! competency? competency? competency? competency? competency?
Operational Excellence i.e. Speed Y Y Y Y Y
- Order to Delivery Time under x
mins
Marketing Acuity Y Y N N N
Brand Strength Y Y Y Y Y
Logistics Excellence Y Y N N N
Let’s talk about this! What
does it mean for strategy?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisEco-system situational awareness – core
competencies mapping
e
Determine A2S core competencies and map your own exercise 2
Now that you understand what is driving Timeframe
the market and who is competing or may
• You have 45 minutes to complete
compete against McDonald’s, let’s outline
this exercise
what the core competencies and key
success factors and compare them to • Choose one person to explain your
determine ability to succeed industry core competency list and
another to explain the gaps and
Build a core competencies chart
signposts.
1. Discuss red flag areas that may
• What are your conclusions?
indicate strengths others have or
“signposts of change”
2. Would you change anything about • What did you learn from this
the drivers of the market or your exercise?
landscape now that you understand • What made this exercise difficult?
competencies?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisTemplate Exercise 2 e
Flip Chart
Template 1 exercise 2
Industry Core Competencies McDonald's Does Competitor A Does Competitor B Does Competitor Does Competitor
What is needed and what have this [Tier 1] have this [Tier 2] have this C [Tier 3] have this D [Tier 4] have this
customers want! competency? competency? competency? competency? competency?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisPart One Review - Framing Competitiveness
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO
our present situational awareness …and where should we go?
…where are we now?...
1 2 3 4
Review – Now we have situational awareness
contextual environmental view scenarios & about the market that prepares us to build
key informed strategic scenarios without bias.
assumptions
check
competitive
Core 5We know what the drivers of the market are
ecosystem competency We know what whatthe 6 looks like
if landscape 7
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen beyond our immediate competition monitor/
ACH & chosen final
We know what competencies report/ adjust
are needed to
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping scenario
succeed and
hypothesis who2 has them
strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
We should what ifto
be able tell what the market
scenario 3
“Hypothesis Mapping” looks like, where the needs are, who is a
“Indicators & “ACH” “What If the
Analysis”
Signposts of “Assumptions Check”
threat and where
“Brainstorming
opportunities exist.
Change” “Quality of Information Check” Alternative Futures”
“Devil’s Advocacy”
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used
without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisPart Two Building the Strategic Hypotheses
Eliminating bias and building the strategy
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO WHY DO I WANT TO DO THIS?
our present situational awareness …and where Strategy Development – The CEO does not
…where are we now?... should we go? want to create a vegan strategy seeing that it
failed in the past but the Board thinks McDonalds
absolutely needs one and the time is right.
What should McDonald’s do? How can you help
drive the decision? How do you decide in an
1 2 3 unbiased way?
4
contextual environmental view scenarios &
ACH & Hypothesis Mapping– Assumption
key testing the various hypotheses is important and
assumptions helps us to consider a number of hypotheses –
check not just the one put in front of us!
Core 5
ecosystem
competitive
competency what if 6 7
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen monitor/
ACH & chosen final
report/ adjust
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping hypothesis scenario 2 strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
what if
“Hypothesis Mapping” scenario 3
“Indicators & “ACH” “What If Analysis”
Signposts of “Assumptions Check” “Brainstorming
Change” “Quality of Information Alternative Futures”
Check” “Devil’s Advocacy”
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used
without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisRemember our “non-linear” approach to structured analysis?
non-linear thinkers think like this
“here is my
hypothesis 1…”
“here is my future
hypothesis 2…” “here is my focused…
priority always
hypothesis” considering the
“here is my unknowns
…but what if I hypothesis 3…”
don’t know….
…lots of
disparate Adapted from N. Bulger’s SIR
alternate
dynamic data presentation, 10/2019
scenarios based on ‘P. Jahne/N. Bulger, 2019
assumptions
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisConsider All the Options
Why do an assumptions check, map hypotheses via ACH and come up with various scenarios?
• Helps us “not jump to conclusions or just fall in line with the status quo”
• Helps the decision makers to be receptive to new leads and consider new
evidence and ideas….
• Gives you confidence in your assumptions and explains the degree of confidence
• Helps to identify new factors that may need further analysis.
• May indicate an old premise that is no longer true
• Provides an evidence trail
• Some taxonomy…..A hypothesis is indicated by an “analytic line”….i.e. “The
way to increase sales and grow market in China is through the development and
launch of a full vegan offering.”
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisPerforming an Assumption Check – Dissecting the process
There are many types of hypothesis situational awareness types but 3 main types….
H1 - Hypotheses
1. Scientific Theory - Something that is or could be happening H1- Climate change is man made and
2. Conspiracy - Something that has already happened Fact/ increasing. We must invest $1B in CC in
3. Business/Strategic Aspirations - Something that we need to Assumption 2020
happen in order to sustain or gain competitive advantage Credibility Importance Source?
Level to the
An assumptions check is just a subset of an ACH Hypothesis
which we will speak about next! CO2 Concentrations are KF 1 White
higher Paper 1
Credibility Level – Do we have proven credibly sourced
Previous cycles were KF 2 White
evidence? more regionally Paper 1
KF=Known Fact, MT = Maybe True, NE = No Evidence concentrated
Models include KF 3 White
Importance to the hypothesis – Does this proven piece of greenhouse gases along Paper 1
evidence make a difference to this hypothesis? Prioritize the with natural cycles
importance. BE CAREFUL! [1=critical, 2=moderate, 3=not Climate change requires KF 1 White
important at present] [Colors represent the effect on the businesses to change Paper 1
processes for emissions
argument – Green = Positive, Yellow = Neutral, Red = Negative]
More greenery than ever MT 2 White
before Paper 1
Sourcing - How many important pieces of evidence have poor
sourcing? How much evidence is here say? How many gaps
do I have in this hypothesis? Did you source a number of Ocean levels are rising KF 3 USGS
sources? Earth core temperature is KF 1 USGS
rising
Pros & Cons – Identify assumption arguments against the All people who voted for NE 1 NY Times
analytic line as well! Trump do not believe in
climate change
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisHow does an ACH [Analysis of Competing Hypotheses]* brainstorming activity work?
1. Identify all hypotheses – all
“analytic lines”
2. List evidence and arguments
for and against in a matrix
3. Quality label all evidence
4. Refine Hypotheses, Evidence,
Original Question
5. Evaluate hypotheses and
eliminate
6. Find lynchpin evidence,
scrutinize
7. Report conclusions, discuss
relative likelihood
8. Identify milestones for future
observations and monitor
* The ACH Process was developed by
Mr. Richard Hauer
Photo
Photo by
by Austin Distel on on
You X Ventures Unsplash
Unsplash
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisHow ACH [Analysis of Competing Hypotheses] Works
H1- The Board’s Idea - H2- The CEO’s Idea - H3- Add vegetarian single offerings with
McDonalds must enter the McDonalds must stick to its the beef offerings as one off choices
2. Outline
vegan theinvarious
market hypotheses
2020 with [ you
core beef may in
offerings have
2020one of your own or this exercise may
a full vegan menu offerings and increasing advertising
result in one!
Market Effects Credibility Source? Importance to Importance to Importance to
[Facts / Level Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis
Assumption]
Pros & Cons! 4. Indicate the importance to the hypothesis with a number [3 = low importance, 2 =
medium important, 1 = very important] and what effect it has on the hypothesis with a
Vegan sales up KF Vegan color KF 1
[Green=positive KF -1
effect, Yellow = neutral, Red=negative, grayKF
= 1no effect]
20% in 2019 Association
Heart disease KF AMA KF-3 KF - 1 KF-2
1. Collect
increased by all 3. Make sure you
theinfacts
20% 2017 – have sourced all of
use
Beef your
is less KF your AMA KF - 2 KF - 2 KF - 2
situational
expensive than fact/assumptions/
vegetables
awareness rumors. If it is a
work to rumor indicate with
Air freight is KF FAA KF-1 KF-1 KF-1
support
increasing
NE
Regulations have KF FDA KF-3 KF-3 KF-3
changed the use
of pesticides in 5. Complete the same process for all of the assumptions you listed. Add other
plants making it assumptions as you move through the process and brainstorm. They do not have to
harder to use
pesticides apply to all of the hypotheses. If they only appeal to one, the others are colored gray.
Interest rates KF US GOV KF-1 KF-3 KF-2
increased in
2018
Other????? NE Rumour NE-1 NE-1 NE-1
Negative Positive
Effect Effect
Neutral No Effect
Effect
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisACH Discussion Points
H1- The Board’s Idea H2- The CEO’s Idea - H3- Add vegetarian single
- McDonalds must McDonalds must stick offerings with the beef
enter the vegan to its core beef offerings as one off choices What to look for in your team
market in 2020 with a offerings in 2020 and
full vegan menu increasing advertising discussions…be ready to talk about
offerings
them at readout
Fact / Credibilit Source? Importance to Importance to Importance to
Assumpti y Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis
on Level Do you have a lot of known facts or are many
of your assumptions – good or bad, based on
Vegan sales
up 20% in
KF Vegan
Associati
KF-1 KF-1 KF-3
little to no evidence? [are you basis your
2019 on hypothesis on rumor or opinion?]
Heart KF AMA KF-2 KF-2 KF-1
disease
increased by
20% in 2017
Are there critical assumptions that need more
Beef is less KF AMA KF-3 KF-3 KF-3
investigation? [do you have a significant number
expensive of assumptions that require more evidence?]
than
vegetables
Are there a significant number of positive
Air freight is KF FAA KF-3 KF-3 KF-3
increasing assumptions that are high priority or low
Regulations KF FDA KF-1 KF-1 KF-3 priority? [If all of your positive assumptions are not
have
changed the significant, it may indicate that you need to do more
use of
pesticides in
investigation or that the hypothesis should be
plants discounted]
making it
harder to use
pesticides
Are there a significant number of negative
Negative Positive
high priority assumptions [If you have many high
Effect Effect priority assumptions that are negative, it may mean
Neutral No that this hypothesis may not yield market
Effect Effect
competitiveness]
Which hypothesis is most viable? Which one
did you choose and why?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisAnalysis of Competing Hypotheses and
Assumptions Check Exercise
e
Identify all assumptions you can think of about the market exercise 3
Timeframe
• Refer to your instruction package
handed out for this exercise
• You have 60 minutes to complete
this exercise
• Choose one person to explain
discussion points and why you
chose your hypothesis
• What did you learn from this
exercise?
• What made this exercise difficult?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisACH Steps
H1- The Board’s Idea H2- The CEO’s Idea - H3- Add vegetarian single
- McDonalds must McDonalds must stick offerings with the beef
offerings as one off choices
enter the vegan to its core beef
market in 2020 with a offerings in 2020 and ON WHITE POST IT NOTES!
full vegan menu increasing advertising
offerings 1 Collect all the facts [PROS & CONS] – use your
situational awareness work to support
Fact / Credibilit Source? Importance to Importance to Importance to
Assumpti y Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis
Level
on
ON YOUR FLIP CHART SHEET
Vegan sales
up 20% in
KF Vegan
Associati
KF-1 KF-1 KF-3
2 Outline the various hypotheses [ you may have
2019 on
one of your own or this exercise may result in one!
Heart KF AMA KF-2 KF-2 KF-1
disease
increased by
20% in 2017 ON YOUR FLIP CHART SHEET
Beef is less
expensive
than
KF AMA KF-3 KF-3 KF-3
3 Make sure you have sourced all of your
vegetables fact/assumptions/
rumors. If it is a rumor indicate with NE
Air freight is KF FAA KF-3 KF-3 KF-3
increasing
Regulations KF FDA KF-1 KF-1 KF-3 ON APPROPRIATE COLOR POST IT NOTES
have
changed the
use of
pesticides in
4 Indicate the importance to the hypothesis with a
plants number [3 = low importance, 2 = medium
making it
harder to use
important, 1 = very important] and what effect it
pesticides has on the hypothesis with a color [Green=positive
effect, Yellow = neutral, Red=negative, gray = no
Negative Positive
effect]
Effect Effect
Neutral No ON APPROPRIATE COLOR POST IT NOTES
Effect Effect
5 Complete the same process for all of the
assumptions you listed. Add other assumptions as
you move through the process and brainstorm.
They do not have to apply to all of the hypotheses.
If they only appeal to one, the others are colored
gray.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisACH Discussion Points
H1- The Board’s Idea H2- The CEO’s Idea - H3- Add vegetarian single
- McDonalds must McDonalds must stick offerings with the beef
enter the vegan to its core beef offerings as one off choices What to look for in your team
market in 2020 with a offerings in 2020 and
full vegan menu increasing advertising discussions…be ready to talk about
offerings
them at readout
Fact / Credibilit Source? Importance to Importance to Importance to
Assumpti y Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis
on Level Do you have a lot of known facts or are many
of your assumptions – good or bad, based on
Vegan sales
up 20% in
KF Vegan
Associati
KF-1 KF-1 KF-3
little to no evidence? [are you basis your
2019 on hypothesis on rumor or opinion?]
Heart KF AMA KF-2 KF-2 KF-1
disease
increased by
20% in 2017
Are there critical assumptions that need more
Beef is less KF AMA KF-3 KF-3 KF-3
investigation? [do you have a significant number
expensive of assumptions that require more evidence?]
than
vegetables
Are there a significant number of positive
Air freight is KF FAA KF-3 KF-3 KF-3
increasing assumptions that are high priority or low
Regulations KF FDA KF-1 KF-1 KF-3 priority? [If all of your positive assumptions are not
have
changed the significant, it may indicate that you need to do more
use of
pesticides in
investigation or that the hypothesis should be
plants discounted]
making it
harder to use
pesticides
Are there a significant number of negative
Negative Positive
high priority assumptions [If you have many high
Effect Effect priority assumptions that are negative, it may mean
Neutral No that this hypothesis may not yield market
Effect Effect
competitiveness]
Which hypothesis is most viable? Which
one did you choose and why?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisTemplate Exercise 3 e
Flip Chart
Template 1 exercise 3
H1- The Board’s Idea - H2- The CEO’s Idea - McDonalds H3- The BU President’s Idea - Add
McDonalds must enter the must stick to its core beef vegetarian single offerings with the beef
vegan market in 2020 with a offerings in 2020 and increase offerings as one off choices
full vegan menu offerings advertising
Market Effects Credibility Source? Importance to Importance to Importance to
[Facts / Level Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis
Assumption]
Vegan sales up KF Vegan KF 1 KF -1 KF 3
20% in 2019 Association
Negative Positive
Effect Effect
Neutral Effect No Effect
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisEliminating bias and building the strategy
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO
our present situational awareness …and where
…where are we now?... should we go? WHY DO I WANT TO DO THIS?
Strategy Development – Now that you have
developed a chosen hypothesis, it is time to run a
what if scenario in the event assumption priorities
change.
1 2 3 4
contextual environmental view scenarios &
key
assumptions
check
Core 5
ecosystem
competitive
competency what if 6 7
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen monitor/
ACH & chosen final
report/ adjust
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping hypothesis scenario 2 strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
what if
“Hypothesis Mapping” scenario 3
“ACH” Decision makers
“Indicators & “What If Analysis”
Signposts of “Assumptions Check” “Brainstorming
often start here
Change” “Quality of Information Alternative Futures” introducing bias!
Check” “Devil’s Advocacy”
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisWhat happens when the dynamics change? “What ifs”
YOUR CHOSEN HYPOTHESIS
Take the hypothesis and outline this
template on a flip chart with all of the
Pros and Cons facts and Assumptions 1
you outlined EXISTING What if Credibility Source? Importance to
Importance to
Facts / Scenario 1 Level EXISTING HYPOTHESIS
Assumptions WHAT IF SCENARIO
1
Create a “What if” Scenario Column as
shown and change some of the
parameters considering if some of these
2
critical elements changed from the Vegan sales Vegan sales are KF Vegan KF-1 KF-1
existing scenario up 20% in predicted to flat Associatio
2019 line in 2020 n
Heart disease Heart disease KF AMA KF-2 KF-1
increased by increased by
Make a determination as to whether or 20% in 2017 20% in 2017
changes the importance of the
assumption or fact, the source factual 3 Beef is less
expensive than
Beef prices rise
and are in line
KF AMA KF-3 KF-1
basis and/or the positive or negative vegetables with vegetables
impact on the overall hypothesis
Air freight is Air freight is KF FAA KF-3 KF-3
increasing increasing
Regulations Regulations KF FDA KF-1 KF-1
have changed have changed
the use of the use of
pesticides in pesticides in
plants making plants making it
it harder to use harder to use
pesticides pesticides
Negative Positive
Effect Effect
Neutral No Effect
Effect
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured Analysis“What If” Exercise
e
Identify all assumptions you can think of about the market exercise 4
Timeframe
• Refer to your instruction package
handed out for this exercise
• You have 20 minutes to complete
this exercise
• Choose one person to explain
discussion points
• What did you learn from this
exercise?
• What made this exercise difficult?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisWhat happens when the dynamics change? “What ifs”
YOUR CHOSEN HYPOTHESIS
Take the hypothesis and outline this
template on a flip chart with all of the
Pros and Cons facts and Assumptions 1
you outlined EXISTING What if Credibility Source? Importance to
Importance to
Facts / Scenario 1 Level EXISTING HYPOTHESIS
Assumptions WHAT IF SCENARIO
1
Create a “What if” Scenario Column as
shown and change some of the
parameters considering if some of these
2
critical elements changed from the Vegan sales Vegan sales are KF Vegan KF-1 KF-1
existing scenario up 20% in predicted to flat Associatio
2019 line in 2020 n
Heart disease Heart disease KF AMA KF-2 KF-1
increased by increased by
Make a determination as to whether or 20% in 2017 20% in 2017
changes the importance of the
assumption or fact, the source factual 3 Beef is less
expensive than
Beef prices rise
and are in line
KF AMA KF-3 KF-1
basis and/or the positive or negative vegetables with vegetables
impact on the overall hypothesis
Air freight is Air freight is KF FAA KF-3 KF-3
increasing increasing
Regulations Regulations KF FDA KF-1 KF-1
have changed have changed
the use of the use of
pesticides in pesticides in
plants making plants making it
it harder to use harder to use
pesticides pesticides
Negative Positive
Effect Effect
Neutral No Effect
Effect
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured Analysis“What If” Discussion Points
What to look for in your team
discussions…be ready to talk about
them at readout
Did you see a dynamic shift in credibility of any
assumptions? Did the credibility change? [Is it
something that WILL happen for certain or something that
may happen ?]
Did you see a dynamic shift in importance and
impact of an assumption? [Is it something that WILL
change the impact on your hypothesis or change your
mind about your hypothesis?
What new issues arise that you will need to pay
close attention to?
Discuss how you would proceed with these what if
scenarios? How will you conduct them and how
frequently? How will you monitor and report them?
Did it make you think more about your chosen
hypothesis? Remember that in real situations, you
would still be testing more than your chosen
hypothesis.
What did you learn from this exercise?
What made it difficult?
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisTemplate Exercise 4
Flip Chart e
Template 1 exercise 4
H1- Your chosen hypothesis
EXISTING Facts What if Scenario Credibility Source? Importance to Importance to
/ Assumptions 1 Level EXISTING HYPOTHESIS WHAT IF SCENARIO 1
Negative Effect Positive Effect
Neutral Effect No Effect
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisEliminating bias and building the strategy
AM - PART ONE PM - PART TWO
our present situational awareness …and where
…where are we now?... should we go? WHY DO I WANT TO DO THIS?
Monitoring– It is imperative that we know where
we are at all times and that we are monitoring
market dynamics in the eco system so that we
anticipate rather than react….that we can adjust
1 2 3 4 and be flexible.
contextual environmental view scenarios &
key
assumptions
check
Core 5
ecosystem
competitive
competency what if 6 7
landscape/ scenario 1
build assessment
radar screen monitor/
ACH & chosen final
report/ adjust
hypothesis strategic what if hypothesis/
KPIS
mapping hypothesis scenario 2 strategy
KPOT
execution
KALS
what if
“Hypothesis Mapping” scenario 3
“Indicators & “ACH” “What If Analysis”
Signposts of “Assumptions Check” “Brainstorming
Change” “Quality of Information Alternative Futures”
Check” “Devil’s Advocacy”
This framework is the property of N. Bulger, 2018 and may not be used without express written consent of the author.
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisDiscussion about KPIs, KAIs and Dashboards
KPI – Key performance indicator
What is the difference?
KAI – Key achievement indicator
One page
Graphically multidimensional What should our reporting include?
Impact analysis
Trends and directional progress
Frequency of update
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisSummary Discussion Analysis of Competing
Hypothesis*
How could you apply these Structured
Hypothesis Mapping
concepts when you return to Analytics
work next week? Indicators, Signposts of
Change*
What would some of the
challenges be and why? Devil’s Advocacy**
How would you mitigate
those challenges? Key Assumptions Check*
Competency Analysis
Landscape/Eco System
Photo by XUNO. on Unsplash
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisThank you!
Questions?
Nan Bulger
bulgernanette@gmail.com
Principal and Founder –
Disruptive Dynamics
Photo by XUNO. on Unsplash
| © 2019 Academy of Competitive Intelligence LLC | CI 303 Structured AnalysisYou can also read
