Coming Challenges Stockholm, 14. September 2011 Prof. Dr. Michael Hüther - Ratio
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Coming Challenges Stockholm, 14. September 2011 Prof. Dr. Michael Hüther
Agenda SHORTAGE OF WELL TRAINED LABOUR THE POTENTIAL OF MIGRANTS THE ROLE OF WAGES AND UNIONS Stockholm, 14. September 2011 2
A shrinking and ageing population
90
82,0
80
68,7
Population, in 64,7
70
millions
60
50,4
50 43,4
Average age, in years
40 34,4
30 34,0
20
20,4
16,2 Share of over-65-year-olds,
10
in per cent
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1991 2008 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Source: StBA; Var. 1-W1 der 12. koordinierten BVB; IW-Berechnungen
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 3Demography: The long run
Population by qualification and age, 2009, Germany, in thousands
qualification unknown children under 15 yo without professional qualification
with professional education with University / FH degree coming 5-year cohort
gap
14.000
12.000 2.104
2.331
10.000 4.902
112
1.888 1.590
8.000 2.137
6.000 8.289 8.634
5.736 6.489
4.000 7.694 7.102
2.000 3.445
2.037 1.786 1.858 1.663
0
0 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
years years years years years years years
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 2010, eigene Berechnungen
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 4Right now, engineers are scarce in Germany
Difference between job vacancies and unemployed
other engineers other production engineers
mining and metallurgical engineers geodesists
architects, construction engineers electrical engineers
machine and vehicle construction engineers
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Aug 00 Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10
Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 5Agenda SHORTAGE OF WELL TRAINED LABOUR THE POTENTIAL OF MIGRANTS THE ROLE OF WAGES AND UNIONS Stockholm, 14. September 2011 6
Net migration has been no help
Immigration to and emigration from Germany, in thousands
1 500
1 000 Immigration
500
0
Net migration
-500
Emigration
-1 000
-1 500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 7Qualified immigration is too small to matter
Migration from third countries
requirements:
Influx in 2009
Job offer + ...
professional training or university
14.816
Employment studies
§18 AufenthG Without professional training or
8.408
university studies
- excellent scientific performance or
Highly qualified workers and
specific job experience which results in
researchers 311
a wage of at least €66.000 special
§§ 19, 20 AufenthG
research appointments
Self employed Among others: Investment of at least
1.024
§ 21 AufenthG €250.000 + creation of 5 jobs
Total qualified immigration: 16.151
Sourcen: BAMF, IW Köln
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 8Potential today: Validation of foreign
educational achievements
engineering 1247
law, social sciences 580
languages, cultural sciences 294
agrary, forestal, nutritional studies 274
medicine 229
art 114
mathematics and sciences 112
others 81
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Source: Mikrozensus, 2009
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 9Potential tomorrow: migrants‘ descendants
Share of persons with migration background of total population
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
under 5 5-15 15-25 25-35 35-45 45-55 55-65 > 65
years years years years years years years years
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt/Mikrozensus 2009
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 10Need for better education and integration
Labour market integration of immigrants
People with migration background People without migration background
62%
labour force potential
58%
87%
employment rate
93%
21%
Recipients of ALG I/II among labour force
9%
10%
unemployment of highly qualified
3%
12%
unemployment of medium qualified
8%
19%
unemployment of low qualified
15%
Source: IW Köln, Mikrozensus 2009
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 11Agenda SHORTAGE OF WELL TRAINED LABOUR THE POTENTIAL OF MIGRANTS THE ROLE OF WAGES AND UNIONS Stockholm, 14. September 2011 12
Minimum wages
A general legal minimum wage is still in discussion. Its proponents see
it as a means to reduce the number of „working poor“
At the moment, Germany has legally introduced sectoral minimum
wages in several sectors of the economy
Problems:
High control costs due to segmented application
Outside competition (by firms that do not sign tariff agreements) ceases to exist, this
lessens the need for wage moderation
Workers with a productivity less than the minimum wage are in danger to become
unemployed
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 13Minimum wages in several sectors
Sector Number of concerned Minimum wages in Euros
employees
Special operations in black coal 2.000 11,53 bis 12,81
mines
Roofing 84.000 10,80
Construction 678.000 9,75 bis 13,00
Painting Services 110.000 9,75 bis 11,75
Electric Services 310.000 8,65 bis 9,80
Waste management 175.000 8,24
Elderly care 630.000 7,75 bis 8,75
Building cleaning 830.000 7,00 bis 11,33
Laundries 30.000 6,75 bis 7,80
Security firms 170.000 6,53 bis 8,60
Source: BDA-Tarifarchiv
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 14A dangerous proposal: €8,50 per hour
Minimum wages in per cent of average wages
USA
CZ
E
B
UK
HUN
POL
GR
POR
NL
F
D
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Source: Eurostat;
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 15Membership structure of trade unions
Rate of unionization, 2010
civil servants
white collar workers
blue collar workers
18-29 years
30-39 years
40-49 years
50 plus
0 10 20 30 40 50
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 16Fusions of German unions
Gewerk-
schaft
Kunst
IG
Medien
IG Druck
1989
und
Papier
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 17Fusions of German unions
Gartenbau,
Land- und
Forstwirt-
schaft
IG Bauen-
Agrar-
Umwelt
1996
IG Bau-
Steine-
Erden
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 18Fusions of German unions
IG
Bergbau
und
Energie
IG
IG Bergbau,
Chemie-
Papier- Chemie,
Keramik Energie
1997
Gewerk-
schaft
Leder
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 19Fusions of German unions
IG
Metall
G. Textil
IG
Beklei-
dung
Metall
2000
G. Holz
und
Kunst-
stoff
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 20Fusions of German unions
IG Medien
Deutsche Deutsche
Post- Ange-
stellten-
gewerk- gewerk-
schaft schaft
Ver.di
2001
G.
G. Handel,
Öffentlicher
Banken, und
Dienst,
Versiche-
Transport
rungen
und Verkehr
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 21Fusions of German unions
Transnet –
Gewerkschaft
der
Eisenbahner
Deutschlands
Eisenbahn- und
Verkehrsgewerk-
schaft (2010)
Verkehrsge
werkschaft
GDBA
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 22Trade unions as actors in industrial relations
A recent survey shows: 61 per cent of the interviewed want unions to
fight for higher wages (late 1990s: 43 per cent)
42 per cent of the interviewed believe that craft unions can enforce
higher wages more effectively than industrial unions, only 30 believe it
to be the other way round
As a reaction of the important fusion resulting in ver.di (2001) several craft unions
decided to become independent from the new conglomerate. They started to follow a
wage policy according their own interests.
The crafts unions of pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, physicians, train
drivers have become quite powerful
Industrial unions are getting under pressure to rethink their strategy of
moderate wage increases
Stockholm, 14. September 2011 23Wage development depends on labour supply The upward pressure on wages will be influenced by the developments outlined before: The shortage of well trained labour will lead to an excess demand for workers, which will bring bargaining power to the employees. This development can be mitigated by various factors: The successful education of the younger generation A special focus must lie on the education of migrants‘ descendants Accrediting foreign educational achievements A higher influx of qualified immigrants Stockholm, 14. September 2011 24
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