COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker - ANALYSIS - SEPTEMBER 2020 - Agora Energiewende
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COVID-19 China Energy
Impact Tracker
How is the pandemic reshaping
China’s energy sector?
ANALYSIS
SEPTEMBER
2020 #1
Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker A publication by Agora Energiewende Kevin Jianjun Tu Zhou Yang Please cite as: Agora Energiewende (2020): COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker: How is the pandemic reshaping China’s energy sector? Issue 1. 187/05-A-2020/EN Version 1.0, September 2020 2
3
Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
Preface
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has Not surprisingly, the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact
precipitated the most severe global recession since on China’s energy sector is important not only for the
the 1930s. The International Monetary Fund recently country’s own energy transition but also for the
projected that the global economy could contract global climate agenda.
significantly by 4.9 per cent year-over-year (YOY) in
2020. And China, once a seemingly unstoppable With the COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker, we
economic juggernaut, saw its economy decline by 6.8 at Agora Energiewende regularly provide up-to-date
per cent YOY in the first quarter of 2020. The last information on how the COVID-19 pandemic has
time China reported an economic contraction was at impacted China’s energy sector, covering the sector-
the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976, more than level development of energy supply, consumption,
four decades ago. carbon emissions and other key indicators. The
COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker will feature
The second largest economy after the United States, a series of reports aiming to better inform the
China ranks first in the world in terms of energy international community and Chinese audiences
production, energy consumption, carbon emissions, alike about COVID-19’s effects on the Chinese energy
power generation, the clean-energy market and economy.
imports of coal, oil and gas. In 2019, fuel combustion
in China accounted for about 29 per cent of global
carbon emissions, and coal-fired power plants in Dr. Patrick Graichen,
China alone represented near half of global capacity. Director, Agora Energiewende
Key findings at a glance:
1 The pandemic triggered an unprecedented economic contraction in the first quarter of 2020, the first
time China has experienced a decline in national output in over four decades.
Following a drastic slump of 6.8 per cent YOY in Q1, the Chinese economy rebounded with 3.2 per cent
YOY growth in Q2. China is projected to be the only major economy to see positive growth in 2020.
2 COVID-19-induced climate and environmental benefits will be short-lived.
Because of the coal-intensive economic recovery in Q2 2020, China’s carbon emissions and air pollution
have already returned to pre-crisis levels. Structural changes and a green stimulus package are urgently
needed to steer China’s economic recovery in a more environmentally sustainable direction.
3
The National Bureau of Statistics should consider readjusting China’s energy statistical reporting in the
near future, especially with regard to coal-related data.
Because of coal’s dominance in China’s primary energy mix and the uncertainty associated with the
country’s statistical reporting on coal in recent years, it is important to focus attention on tracking the
changes and trends in China’s economic activity and energy consumption instead of on the absolute
numbers provided in our COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker reports.
4Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
Content
I| Outlook 2020 6
1| Insights from crises in the past 7
2| Economy 8
3| Energy consumption 10
4| Carbon emissions 11
5| Summary 13
2| Economy & power demand 14
1| Economy: Quarter 1 15
2| Economy: Quarter 1 & 2 16
3| Power consumption: Quarter 1 17
4| Power consumption: Half 1 18
5| Summary 19
3| Fossil fuel energy 20
1| Energy production 21
2| Coal consumption 22
3| Oil & natural gas consumption 25
4| Summary 27
4| Renewables 28
5| Air quality 31
6| Concluding remarks 33
7| References 35
5Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
I | 2020 Outlook
1 | Insights from past crises 7
2 | Economy 8
3 | Energy consumption 10
4 | Carbon emissions 11
5 | Summary 13
6I | 2020 Outlook
Insights from past crises
Figure 1 | World energy consumption by fuel, 1800–2019
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
100%
Traditional
biomass Gas
10%
Coal
Hydro
1%
Oil Nuclear Renewables
0%
1918 Spanish Flu
Source: Vaclav Smil (2010), BP (2020)
Figure 2 | Global power generation mix, 1971–2019
1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 2019
50%
40% Coal
30%
Gas
20% Hydro
Nuclear
10%
Renewable Oil
0%
1986 Chernobyl 2008 financial crisis
1973 oil crisis 2003 SARS
Source: IEA online database, BP (2020)
Though major crises do not always leave a COVID-19 is expected to encourage a
permanent mark on the energy sector, they political preference for self-reliance across
offer a good opportunity for national the globe, which may benefit renewable
governments to reshape national energy mix. and energy conservation.
In the first half of the 20th century, the Unfortunately, for the same reason,
Spanish Flu and two world wars COVID-19 may also become a justification
accelerated the global energy transition for prolonging the use of carbon-intensive
from coal to oil. coal in some parts of the world.
By comparison, more recent crises such as Finally, the impact of the crisis on the
the 1973 oil crisis and the 1986 Chernobyl global poor is likely to translate into a
nuclear accident had less of an impact on higher share of traditional biomass
the trajectories of individual fuels. consumption in the global energy mix.
7Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
2020 Outlook: Economy
Figure 3 | China’s projected economic growth in 2020
.
Since the Wuhan lockdown on 23 January On June 24, the International Monetary
2020, the global economy has experienced Fund (IMF) projected that the global
an economic shock. Forecasters have economy would contract by 4.9 per cent
severely downgraded their growth YOY in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below
projections. Further downgrades may be in its April 2020 forecast, and 8.2 percentage
store as analysts track the evolution of the points below its January 2020 forecast.
pandemic
8I | 2020 Outlook
2020 Outlook: Economy (cont.)
Figure 3 | China’s projected economic growth in 2020 (cont.)
Source: Tu (2020a), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2000-2019), World Bank (2020), IMF (2020), et al.
Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak on January Currently, China is projected to be one of
9, the IMF projected that the Chinese the few countries that may still maintain
economy would grow by 6.0 per cent YOY positive economic growth in 2020,
in 2020. On April 6, it revised the forecast assuming that the coronavirus remains
downward to 1.2 per cent. On June 24, it largely under control and economic
lowered it again to 1.0 per cent. activity continues to recover.
9Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
2020 Outlook: Energy consumption
Figure 4 | China’s projected energy consumption in 2020
Source: NBS (2005-2019), IEA World Energy Review (2020), Authors’ calculations
The slump in economic activity in general and gas consumption increased by 1.6 per cent
passenger travel in particular significantly YOY in Q1, followed with even stronger
dented China’s energy demand in the first growth in Q2.
quarter (Q1) of 2020. However, Q2 2020 saw The share of coal in the primary energy
signs of recovery in the energy economy. mix in 2019 was 57.7 per cent. This meets
The National Bureau of Statistics estimates the 13th Five Year Plan target (58 per
that China’s primary energy demand shrank cent). However, non-compliance with this
by 3.1 per cent in Q1 2020 and by 0.2 per target cannot be entirely ruled out
cent overall in the first half of 2020. because the economic recovery in Q2
Coal and oil consumption declined in Q1 2020 has been notably coal-intensive.
2020 and started to recover in Q2. Natural
10I | 2020 Outlook
2020 Outlook: Carbon emissions
Figure 5 | China’s energy-related emissions in 2020
COVID-19’s impact on China’s 2020 annual
carbon emissions is expected
15153 to be below the
average emissions impact at the global level.
?
New COVID-19 cases in China
37
Jan 25 Feb 23 Mar 15 Apr 30 Dec 31
Myllyvirta |
Reduction of 200m tons
25% lower than usual levels
Myllyvirta |
Reduction of 250m tons
18% lower than usual levels
Le Quéré |
Reduction of 242m tons
2.6% lower than 2019 levels
Le Quéré |
Reduction of 243-522m tons
2.6–5.6% lower than 2019 levels
Source: Myllyvirta (2020), Le Quéré (2020)
COVID-19’s impact on China’s 2020 annual
carbon emissions is expected to be below the
average emissions impact at the global level.
11Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
2020 Outlook: Carbon emissions (cont.)
Figure 6 | Carbon emissions forecasts in 2020: China vs. the world
Le Quéré IMF* IEA Glen Peters
0%
-0.3%
-1.2%
-2.6% -3%
-3.1%
-4.2%
-5.3%
-5.7% -6%
-5.6%
-7.5%
-8.0%
-9%
China** Global
*Based on IMF's GDP projection and average CO2/GDP improvement rate
** Light and dark colours represent low and emission scenarios, respectively
Source: Le Quéré (2020), IMF (2020), IEA (2020), Glen Peters (2020)
The IEA estimates that China’s carbon The change in China’s carbon emissions
emissions declined by 8 per cent in Q1 2020. for the rest of this year will depend on
However, the relatively strong and coal- how far the pandemic is contained and
intensive economic recovery in Q2 indicates how fast the economy recovers as a
that COVID-19’s impacts on China’s carbon whole.
emissions may be short-lived. The climate benefits from the outbreak
China’s carbon emissions have rebounded are expected to be a short-term
slightly after plateauing at 2014 levels for phenomenon. Myllyvirta (2020) concludes
two years. that China’s fuel combustion carbon
China’s carbon emissions grew by about emissions increased by around 4-5 per
1.2, 2.2 and 3.4 per cent annually from 2017 cent YOY in May.
to 2019.
In 2019, China was responsible for 29 pe
rcent of global carbon emissions.
12I | 2020 Outlook
2020 Outlook
China faces both risk and opportunity if it undergoing internal restructuring for decades, now
wants to leverage COVID-19 to decouple faces complicated circumstances caused by both the
carbon emissions from economic growth ongoing pandemic and the associated intervention
policy.
The world has witnessed unprecedentedly fast and
large downgrades in economic growth forecasts In Q1 2020, carbon emissions in China followed the
because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Q1 2020, the downward trajectory of economic activity and
Chinese economy shrank by 6.8 per cent YOY, the energy demand. Nevertheless, because the economic
country’s first reported economic contraction since contraction is temporary, concerted efforts are
the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976. urgently needed if China is to reap long-term climate
benefits from the crisis. With the recovery of
Unlike the global Financial Crisis in 2008, the economic activity, China’s carbon emissions could
COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a deep recession in either follow the country’s economic trajectory or
the real economy in China, hitting small- and decouple itself from it. In the end, the direction will
medium-sized enterprises the hardest. The resulting largely depend on how green the country’s recovery
recession is expected to be more severe and long- plan is.
lasting, and thus requires more stimulus. Despite this
outlook, Asia, especially China, is expected to be the The rest of this report examines economic and energy
engine of global economic recovery, with relatively sector indicators for how the crisis could become an
strong growth pickups. Assuming that the outbreak in opportunity for China to design a stimulus package
China remains largely contained, the country is that avoids carbon-intensive investments. They
widely expected to witness positive growth in 2020 show that socially, politically and environmentally
and a more pronounced economic rebound in 2021. benign structural changes will allow China to
accelerate the peaking of its national carbon
Combined with the direct shocks from the economic emissions before 2030.
downturn, China’s energy sector, which has been
13Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
2 | Economy &
power demand
1 | Economy: Q 1 15
2 | Economy: Q1 & Q2 16
3 | Power consumption: Q1 17
4 | Power consumption: H1 18
5 | Summary 19
142 | Economy & power demand
Q1 2020: Economy
Figure 7 | Daily confirmed cases of COVID-19: China vs. the world
100000
10000 Global daily
confirmed cases
1000
100
China’s daily
10 confirmed cases
1
1.1 1.8 1.15 1.22 1.29 2.5 2.12 2.19 2.26 3.4 3.11 3.18 3.25 4.1 4.8 4.15 4.22 4.29 5.6
Domestic lockdown policy Global economic downturn
Global demand slumps
Domestic demand and supply ↓ Exports
Total retail sales of consumer goods ↓ 11.4%
↓ 19.0% (real)
Total profit of industrial enterprises*
↓ 36.7%
Domestic investment ↓
Manufacturing Labor-intensive Medical
products products equipment
Investment in fixed assets
↓ 16.1%
GDP in Q1 ↓ 6.8%
* Industrial enterprises above state designated scale (with annual revenue ≥ 20 million yuan)
Source: 2019ncov.chinacdc.cn (2020), NBS (2020)
In Q1 2020, all major economic indicators in recovery will take longer compared to the
China were negative: industrial production fell 2008 financial crisis.
by 8.4 per cent YOY, retail sales by 19 per cent With the COVID-19 outbreak inside China
and fixed-asset investment by 16.1 per cent. largely under control since March 2020,
Consequently, China’s GDP declined by 6.8 domestic demand began to rebound
per cent YOY. starting in Q2 2020.
The three driving forces of the Chinese Exports are expected to experience a
economy are consumer spending, exports longer-lasting downturn due to the global
and fixed asset investment – all of these outbreak. The progress of the pandemic at
have been impacted to varying degrees the global level will continue to have
by COVID-19. ripple effects across the Chinese
Non-financial sectors have been hit manufacturing sector and other areas of
particularly hard by the pandemic, so that its economy.
15Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
First half (H1) of 2020: Economy
Figure 8 | Q1 and Q2 GDP YOY growth rate, 2019 vs. 2020
7.0%
6.2% 5.6%
6.4% 7.0%
6.1% 4.7%
3.2% 3.3% 3.3%
2.7% 1.9%
-3.2%
-5.2%
-6.8%
-9.6%
Q1 Q2
2019 Primary Secondary Tertiary
GDP
2020 industry industry industry
Source: NBS (2019, 2020)
Figure 9 | H1 economic indicators, 2019 vs. 2020
8.4%
6.3% 5.8% 7.0% 5.8%
3.0% 3.9%
0.9%
-1.6% -1.9% -1.6%
-3.1% -3.2%
H1 2019 H1 2020
-11.4%
GDP Primary Secondary Tertiary retail
Total Retail Fixed assets Foreign trade
industry industry industry sales
Sales of investment volume
consumer
Consumer
goods
Goods
Source: NBS (2019, 2020)
The pandemic was brought largely under Nonetheless, the size of the Chinese
control within China in March 2020, allowing economy in H1 2020 remains below the
economic activity to pick up in Q2. As a result, pre-pandemic level.
the Chinese economy declined by only 1.6 per Assuming that GDP growth reaches 5.2
cent YOY in H1 2020 overall, compared with a per cent YOY in Q3 and 6.0 per cent in Q4,
slump of 6.8 per cent in Q1. the size of the Chinese economy is
In Q2 2020, China’s GDP growth in the expected to increase by 2.3 per cent YOY
industry sector was positive again, making in 2020.
China the first major economy to clearly
recover from the coronavirus-induced
economic slump.
162 | Economy & power demand
Q1 2020: Power consumption
Figure 10 | Q1 power demand YOY growth, 2014–2020
Q1-2014 Q1- 2015 Q1- 2016 Q1- 2017 Q1- 2018 Q1-2019 Q1-2020
20%
10%
4.0% 3.5%
0%
-10% -6.5%
-8.7% -8.3%
Total Primary industry Secondary Tertiary industry Residential
industry
Source: NBS (2014–2020)
Figure 11 | Q1 power demand YOY growth by selected energy-intensive industries in 2019 and 2020
Source: NBS (2019, 2020)
In Q1 2020, national power consumption Q1 2020, China’s power demand trajectory
declined at a rate similar to the overall will largely depend on how fast industrial
economy. This confirms that the power sector activity recovers during the rest of 2020.
is highly coupled with economic growth, and The catering, entertainment, retail and
reveals an increasing electrification of the tourism sectors were hit particularly hard
Chinese energy economy. during the nationwide lockdown. With
Chinese national level power consumption many small- to medium-sized enterprises
in the industry sector declined by 8.7 per still struggling, the Chinese service sector
cent YOY in Q1 2020. is currently making a weaker recovery
Because industry accounted for nearly 70 compared with the industrial sector.
per cent of national power consumption in
17Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
H1 2020: Power consumption
Figure 12 | Monthly power consumption trajectory, 2019 vs. 2020
1200 Power consumption (TWh)
1020.3
900
635
557.2 592.6
600
549.3
YOY growth rate
300
7.5% 5,8% 6.1%
4.5% 4.6% 5.0% 4.7% 5.0%
3.6% 4.4%
2.7%
0.7% 5.5%
2.3%
0%
-4.2%
-7.8%
Jan-Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: China Electricity Council (CEC, 2019, 2020)
Figure 13 | YOY growth of cumulative power consumption by sector in 2020
Jan-Feb Jan-Mar Jan-Apr Jan-May Jan-Jun
10% 8.2% 6.6%
5%
0%
-1.3%
-5% -2.5%
-4.0%
-10%
-15%
Total Primary industry Secondary Tertiary industry Residential
industry
Source: CEC (2020)
Starting from April 2020, monthly national As the service sector has been hit
power consumption rebounded above the particularly hard by the pandemic, the
2019 level. By the end of June, YOY increasingly service-oriented Chinese
cumulative national power consumption energy economy is expected to see a
had declined by only 1.3 per cent. This greater drop in GDP than in national
rebound is likely to continue. power consumption.
182 | Economy & power demand
Economy & power demand
In H2 2020, China’s power consumption The trend toward an increasing share of services in
will be driven by both domestic the Chinese economy means that the service sector,
economic recovery and the health of the which accounts for 16 per cent of national power
global economy consumption, has been a key driving force for power
demand growth. In Q1, the nationwide lockdown
The secondary (i.e. mostly industrial) and tertiary (i.e. caused a sharp rise in internet traffic. As a result,
service) industries in China were impacted severely internet infrastructure, software and IT services saw
by the COVID-19 pandemic. These two sectors a 27 per cent YOY jump in their power consumption,
account for more than 80 per cent of China’s national while accommodation & catering and wholesale &
power demand. Not surprisingly, power consumption retail industries experienced a precipitous power
by industry and service is an important gauge of demand collapse of 22.8 and 15.5 per cent YOY,
China’s economic recovery. At the end of June, respectively.
cumulative power consumption for these sectors
were below 2019 levels. China’s monthly national power consumption
returned to 2019 levels in April and has continued to
The pandemic’s impact on energy-intensive grow ever since. In June, national power
industries is less severe than on labour-intensive consumption grew by 6.1 per cent YOY.
ones such as textiles and clothing manufacturing. In
H1 2020, cumulative power consumption in the total It is clear that Q2’s strong recovery in power demand
industrial sector decreased by 2.4 per cent YOY. By has largely been driven by economic recovery inside
comparison, the four energy-intensive industries (i.e. China. During the rest of 2020, export demand for
steel, construction materials, non-ferrous metals and Chinese commodities is expected to become an
chemicals) saw their aggregate power consumption increasingly important factor for shaping China’s
decline by only 1 per cent YOY. power consumption trajectory.
19Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
3 | Fossil fuel
energy
1 | Energy production 21
2 | Coal consumption 22
3 | Oil & gas consumption 25
4 | Summary 27
203 | Fossil fuel energy
H1 2020: Energy production
Figure 14 | Monthly YOY growth rate of energy production and imports
33.1% 2019
18.6% 22.4%
2020
Imports
-0.1% -1.2%
Coal -6.7%
Production -6.3% 9.6% 6.0% -19.7%
34.4%
19.5%
5.2% 4.5%
Imports 0.9%
Oil Production 3,7%
-0.1% -7.5% 1.3% 0.7%
14,3% 12.7% 11.3%
8.0% 11.2%
Production
Gas 10.8%
Imports 4.2%
2.8% 0.3% 1.3%
Jan-Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: NBS (2019, 2020)
Figure 15 | YOY growth rate of energy production and imports
Coal Oil Gas
28.4%
9.1% 10.3% 12.7% 9.9%
2.4% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 1.7% 3.3%
-0.5%
Production Imports Production Imports
Q1 H1
Source: NBS (2019, 2020)
Domestic production and imports of fossil Chinese government. The objective is to
fuels were barely curbed by the COVID-19 alleviate the financial pressure on
pandemic in Q1 2020, leading to a sizable domestic producers.
inventory build- up in coal, oil and gas. In May 2020, China’s crude oil imports
Coal production rebounded faster than the jumped to a record high level while
downstream coal demand, leaving the domestic demand remained relatively
domestic market oversupplied. depressed.
Coal imports made some inroads due to The global slump in liquefied natural gas
competitive prices, but this growth has (LNG) prices during the pandemic has
been slowed by the introduction of more gradually attracted more purchases from
stringent import restrictions by the China.
21Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
H1 2020: Coal consumption
Figure 16 | Share of coal consumption by sector in 2017, and output YOY growth rates of selected coal-
intensive industries in 2020
Processing petroleum, coking
and nuclear fuel 12%
Power & heat 47%
Ferrous metals 8%
Non-metals mineral products 7%
Raw chemical materials 6%
Others 16% Non-ferrous metals 4%
Sector Q1 2020 H1 2020
Thermal power ↓ 8.2% ↓ 1.6%
10 types of non-ferrous metals ↑ 2.1% ↑ 2.9%
Ethylene ↑ 1.3% ↓ 0.8%
Cement ↓ 23.9% ↓ 4.8%
Crude steel ↑ 1.2% ↑ 1.4%
Coke ↓ 4.1% ↓ 2.5%
Source: China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2018), NBS (2020)
The Q2 2020 recovery in coal-fired power Q1. In Q2, the recovery of industrial
generation and coal-intensive industrial activities and more stringent restrictions
activities is propping up national coal imposed on coal imports started to
consumption. stabilize the Chinese coal market.
In Q1 2020, China’s coal consumption Coal consumption is expected to continue
declined significantly due to the slump in to recover during the rest of 2020. So far,
power demand and the disruption to coal- China’s economic rebound has been
intensive industrial activities. notably coal-intensive, with profound
Oversupply led to a drop in coal prices in implications for global carbon emissions.
22Agora Energiewende | China Illustrative Guide
H1 2020: Coal consumption – power sector
Figure 17 | National coal consumption and YOY growth rates, 2017 – H1 2020
H1 2020 Est Q1 2020 Est 2019 2018 2017
1858 Mt 874 Mt 2804 Mtce 2738 Mtce 2709 Mtce
↓3.3% ↓7.7% ↑2.4% ↑1% ↑0.3%
Source: NBS online database, authors’ estimations for H1 2020
Figure 18 | Monthly thermal power generation in 2019 and 2020
TWh
900 8.9% 781 9.0% 10%
1.2% 5.4% 5%
600
389 398 423 432
0%
300
-5%
-7.5%
0 -10%
Thermal power generation 2019 Thermal power generation 2020
Growth rate 2019 Growth rate 2020
Source: NBS online database
Depending on policy signals from the central to moving clean power sector
government, the COVID-19 pandemic could transformation agenda forward in China.
either catalyse the transformation of the In 2019, more than half of Chinese coal-
clean power sector in China or reinforce the fired power plants operated at a financial
position of coal by supporting domestic coal loss. The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed
producers and new coal-fired facilities. additional financial pressure on Chinese
Coal dominates the Chinese power sector, coal-fired power generators, which are
accounting for 62 per cent of national largely unprofitable.
power generation in 2019. Permitting for greenfield coal-fired power
In April and May 2020, thermal power plants in China has accelerated during the
generation grew faster than national pandemic in an effort to stimulate
power demand, undermining the economic growth – with dire
likelihood that 2020 will contribute consequences for the climate.
23Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
H1 2020: Coal consumption – industry
Figure 19 | YOY output growth of selected energy–intensive industrial products in 2020
8.6% 8.4% 4.1%
3.8% 3.1% 4.2% 4.5% 5.6%
0.2% 2.2% 1.6% 3.8% 3.1%
-1.7% -1.4% -1.4%
-2.7%
-4.3%
18.3% Jan-Feb Mar Apr May Jun
-29.5%
Cement Crude steel Non-ferrous metals Ethylene
Source: NBS (2020)
Figure 20 | Downstream demand-side recovery for steel and cement in 2020
Steel Steel & cement
General Special
Automotive equipment equipment Fixed asset Infrastructure Real estate
manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing investment investment investment
5% 2.9% 1.9%
-5%
-3.1% -2.3% -3.1% -2.7%
-15%
-25% -16.3%
-24.4% -24.5%
-35% -28.2% -30.3%
-31.8%
Jan-Feb Jan-Mar Jan-Apr Jan-May Jan-Jun
Source: NBS (2020)
China’s output of major energy-intensive operations. This industry is now
products and the associated coal rebounding fast due to the strong
consumption have rebounded due to recovery in construction activity and the
recovery in downstream demand. lifting of travel restrictions.
Industrial value added increased by 4.8 Steel and steel-made products such as
per cent YOY in June 2020, compared with machine equipment and cars are major
the Q1 YOY decrease of 8.4 per cent. The Chinese export products. The continued
impact of COVID-19 on industrial activity spread of the pandemic across the world
has led to a 1.3 per cent H1 YOY reduction is impacting markets for steel products,
in cumulative industrial value added. which remain depressed.
The disruption to transport in Q1 was a China’s iron and steel output recovery has
major obstacle for cement manufacturing primarily been driven by domestic
demand.
243 | Fossil fuel energy
H1 2020: Oil and natural gas consumption
Figure 21 | Estimates of China’s oil demand in 2020
2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
-0.6%
-1.8%
-4.9% -4.5%
-7.3%
-9.4% -8.8% -9.0%
2019 2020
-18.7% -17.1%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
OPEC U.S. EIA
Source: OPEC (July 2020), U.S.EIA (July 2020)
Figure 22 | Estimated apparent gas consumption in 2019 and 2020
Billion m3 2019 2020 2019 change 2020 change
35 20%
30
26 26 26
28 25 15%
23
21 10%
8.9% 9.1%
14 5%
3.4% 4.0% 3.7%
7 0%
-1.9%
0 -5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) (2019–2020), authors’ calculations based on NDRC data
COVID-19 has had a profound impact on the • World trade contraction
Chinese oil market, mainly due to restrictions • Rising concerns over energy security
imposed on domestic and international travel. The lack of transparency regarding
Factors impacting the Chinese oil market: petroleum stockpiling in China has resulted
• Depressed passenger and cargo traffic in diverse projections of China’s oil
• Record-high oil stockpiles consumption. This uncertainty may also be
• Low oil prices hindering the country's own ability to plan
• Higher packaging requirements its crisis response.
(plastics)
25Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
H1 2020: Oil consumption
Figure 23 | Monthly Brent spot prices, 2019 vs. 2020
2019 2020 YOY change
80 66 71 71 80%
59 64 64 64
56
Price ($/bbl)
40
YOY change
40 32 29 40%
18
0 0%
7.1% -13.0
-40 -37.3% -40%
-51.6%
-58.8%
-80 -74.2% -80%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: U.S. EIA (2019, 2020)
Figure 24 | On June 29, China raised the retail prices of gasoline and diesel for the first time in 2020
8500
Gasoline Diesel
7000
Yuan/ton
5500
4000
Source: data.eastmoney.com (2019, 2020)
China’s oil demand is largely driven by still struggling with a catastrophic
downstream recovery especially with regard downturn, especially for the international
to transport turnover, petroleum stockpiling, segment of their operations.
petrochemicals and net exports of refined China stockpiled large amount of crude oil
petroleum products. before the prices rebounded.
China’s oil consumption in road transport From January to May, China’s refined fuel
is recovering fast because the domestic exports jumped 10.4 per cent to 1.57
travel restrictions have been largely lifted. million bpd, a gain of 140,000 bpd over
Demand for aviation fuels remains the corresponding period in 2019,
depressed because the airline industry is according to Reuters.
263 | Fossil fuel energy
Fossil fuel energy
China’s notably coal-intensive economic resilient demand for petrochemical products are the
recovery in Q2 raises legitimate concerns two key drivers for oil consumption in China.
about environmental integrity and the
alignment of national policy choices with Except in February, China’s monthly natural gas
the global climate agenda consumption continuously grew on a YOY basis, with
4 per cent cumulative demand growth in H1.
Despite a relatively strong economic recovery – 3.2
per cent YOY GDP growth in Q2 – the demand for Against the backdrop of rising anxiety among
fossil fuels in China is growing more slowly than Chinese decision makers about energy security,
supply. domestic natural gas output increased by 10.3 per
cent YOY in H1. As global LNG prices fell to record
Depressed demand for coal since the start of the lows, imports surged by 11.2 per cent YOY. This was
COVID-19 outbreak has driven down China’s achieved at the expense of pipeline gas imports,
domestic coal prices, leading to a 31.2 per cent YOY which declined by 7.4 per cent YOY in H1. As a result,
reduction in Chinese coal companies’ profits in H1 overall gas imports increased modestly by 3.3 per
2020. In order to alleviate competitive pressure on cent YOY.
domestic producers from cheap international imports,
the Chinese government has further tightened import Though natural gas fared the strongest among all
restrictions at coastal ports. Nevertheless, China’s fossil fuels in H1 2020, Chinese decision makers’
coal imports still increased by 12.7 per cent in H1 political preference for domestic production against
2020. reliance on imports makes gas’s role in China’s energy
transition more uncertain than it otherwise would be,
The demand for coal in China is dominated by coal- especially considering the great difficulty associated
fired power generation, followed by steel and cement with opening up China’s upstream oil and gas sector.
manufacturing. Output in these sectors in June 2020
all exceeded 2019 levels. Not surprisingly, China’s Passenger transport has been the weakest link in the
monthly coal consumption in June is estimated to Chinese energy economic recovery so far, with
reach 334 Mt, which also exceeds the 2019 level on a additional rebound likely to be linked to the further
YOY basis. recovery of the services sector.
The recovery of the Chinese oil industry has been In sum, China’s economic recovery in Q2 2020 has
slower than that of coal. However, oil supply is been notably carbon-intensive, with negative
rebounding with rising crude imports, a large amount impacts for China’s environmental integrity and for
of which is flowing into commercial and strategic the global climate agenda.
storage. Recovery in road transport and the relatively
27Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
4 | Renewables
284 | Renewables
H1 2020: Renewables
Figure 25 | Q1 YOY growth rates of power generation by source, 2015–2020
Quarter 1 Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar
30%
20%
10.9%
10% 5.7%
1.2%
0%
-10% -6.8% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-8.2% -9.5%
Source: NBS online database
Figure 26 | Monthly power generation growth rates by source in 2020
Jan-Feb Mar Apr May Jun
20% 18.1%
15.8%
13.6%
12.0% 12.3%
10% 6.5% 6.9% 7.1%
5.4% 5.2% 5.8%
1.2%
0%
-0.2% 8.6%
-10%
-20%
Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar
Source: CEC (2020)
Like elsewhere in the world, wind and solar driven changes to dispatch rules and the
power in China has performed better than push to invest in state-of-the-art
other energy sources during Q1 2020. transmission infrastructure in recent years
The stronger than expected recent have created a more favorable
performance of solar and wind power environment for grid integration of
generation in China suggests that policy- variable renewables in China.
29Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
H1 2020: Renewables
Figure 27 | Added capacity of wind and solar in 2019 and 2020
Wind 2019 Wind 2020
Capacity addition (MW) Solar 2019 Solar 2020
4500
4000
3000
2350
1590
1370
1500 1070 1190
1350 1420
990 1140
0
Jan-Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Source: CEC (2019, 2020)
Figure 28 | Downgraded forecasts of China’s added renewable capacity in 2020
Original Downgraded Change
forecast forecast
Solar BNEF 37–45 GW 25–37 GW ↓18–32%
China PV Industry 40–50 GW 35–45 GW ↓10–13%
Association
Wind Global Wind 35 GW 20–25 GW ↓29–43%
Energy Council
Source: BNEF (2020), China PV Industry Association (2020) and Global Wind Energy Council (2020)
Despite the positive performance of Disruptions to domestic and international
renewables in Q1 2020, forecasters have supply chains and reductions in
lowered their 2020 projections for added government subsidies are now the main
renewable capacity in China. challenges for sustaining renewable
development in China.
305 | Air Quality
31Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
H1 2020: Air pollution
Figure 29 | Airborne nitrogen dioxide before and during the quarantine
Mean tropospheric NO2 Density (mol/m2)
January 1-20, 2020 February 10-25, 2020 0 125 250 375 ≥500
Source: NASA (2020)
Figure 30 | Monthly average PM2.5 concentration in 2019 and 2020
μg/m3 2019 2020 2019 YOY change (right) 2020 YOY change (right)
70 10%
8%
60 3%
2% 0%
50 0%
-3% -5% -4%
40 -6% -11%
44 -10%
30 64 -14%
40 -22% -19%
20 -20%
32 33
10 24
-27% 19
0 -30%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1/20-3/14
During
coronavirus
Source: Ministry of Ecology and Environment (2019, 2020)
Lockdown-induced air quality improvements The improvement in air quality seems to
are expected to be short-lived unless be a temporary phenomenon, which
concerted efforts are made by the Chinese began to reverse as lockdown measures
government to move the air pollution control were lifted.
agenda forward. Additional pollution may occur when
During lockdown, air quality pollution, factories try to ramp up production levels
PM2.5 and NOX levels in particular, to compensate for losses during the
. drastically declined due to the sharp fall in shutdown period.
transport and industrial activity.
326 | Concluding
Remarks
33Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
Concluding Remarks
COVID-19 has inflicted high economic costs in China While COVID-19 has significantly dented China’s
and around the world. In Q1 2020, the Chinese carbon emissions in Q1 of 2020, preliminary analysis
economy contracted by 6.8 per cent YOY – the first indicates that in Q2 emissions had already rebounded
economic contraction in China since 1976. Despite a back to levels similar to 2019. This is largely due to
relatively quick recovery in Q2, the size of the the coal-intensive character of the economic
Chinese economy as a whole nevertheless decreased recovery, with Q2 seeing a resurgence of coal-fired
1.6 per cent YOY in H1 2020. power generation, cement, iron & steel, coking and
coal chemical manufacturing.
In energy production, outputs of coal, oil and gas
increased in H1 2020 by 0.6, 1.7 and 10.3 per cent Following the first three rounds of China’s National
YOY, respectively. Against the backdrop of the Economic Census conducted in 2004, 2008 and 2013,
demand slump, China’s preference for indigenous the NBS drastically revised the country’s national
production appears crucial and is driven particularly energy balance tables, especially coal-related data.
by rising anxiety about energy security. Preliminary analysis by the authors and Agora
Energiewende indicates that inconsistencies in the
In energy transformation, following a 6.8 per cent statistical reporting of coal have recurred in recent
YOY reduction in Q1, China’s national power years. Further revisions by the NBS are thus likely
generation rebounded in Q2, leading to a 1.4 per cent after the fourth round of the National Economic
YOY reduction in H1. Census in 2018. Consequently, it is important to focus
attention on tracking the relative changes and trends
By comparison, refinery throughput dropped by 4.6 in China’s economic activity and energy
per cent in Q1. Following a rather strong recovery in consumption, instead of on the absolute numbers
Q2, refinery throughput increased by 0.6 per cent listed in our COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
YOY in H1. reports.
Due to depressed fossil fuel prices in global markets in From a Chinese cultural perspective, a crisis as
H1 2020, Chinese imports of cheap coal, oil and gas significant as the COVID-19 pandemic is often
increased by 12.7, 9.9 and 3.3 per cent, respectively. perceived as having two aspects: it is not only a threat
Despite record-low LNG spot market prices, overall (危 wei); it may also be treated as an opportunity (机
growth in China’s natural gas imports in H1 lag well ji)—or wei ji (危机). Instead of relying on a carbon-
behind the increase in coal and oil imports, which intensive recovery to achieve short-term economic
indicates the importance of moving China’s gas gains, Chinese decision-makers should review the
market reform agenda forward. trends presented in this report and double down on
efforts to create a clean-energy transition that aims
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated to better balance short-term political targets with
that national energy consumption declined by 3.1 in longer strategic goals. If this happens, China has the
Q1 and by 0.2 per cent overall in H1. By comparison, potential to become, in the post-coronavirus world, a
national power consumption declined during the true global leader in clean-energy investment and the
same periods by 6.5 per cent and 1.3 per cent, low-carbon economy of the future.
respectively.
347 | References
35Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker
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37Agora Energiewende | COVID-19 China Energy Impact Tracker 187/05-A-2020/EN About Agora Energiewende Agora Energiewende develops evidence- based and politically viable strategies for ensuring the success of the clean energy transition in Germany, Europe and the rest of the world. As a think tank and policy laboratory we aim to share knowledge with stakeholders in the worlds of politics, business and academia while enabling a productive exchange of ideas. Our scientifically rigorous research highlights practical policy solutions while eschewing an ideological agenda. As a non-profit foundation primarily financed through philanthropic donations, we are not beholden to narrow corporate or political interests, but rather to our commitment to confronting climate change. Agora Energiewende is a joint initiative of the Mercator Foundation and the European Climate Foundation. Agora Energiewende Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Straße 2 | 10178 Berlin P +49 (0)30 700 14 35-000 F +49 (0)30 700 14 35-129 www.agora-energiewende.de info@agora-energiewende.de 38
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